UGA’s path to the BCS title game? It’s not a straight shot
These are the Oregon Ducks. Georgia wouldn't mind seeing them, er, quack up. (AP photo)
The last BCS title game not to include an SEC representative was staged in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 4, 2006, exactly one year before Nick Saban was introduced as Alabama’s new coach. The last BCS title game to include a team from a conference other than the SEC was staged in Glendale, Ariz., on Jan. 10, 2011, and by now you’re sensing where I’m going with this.
Georgia is No. 5 in the BCS standings. If it wins the rest of its games, it will be 12-1 and the SEC champion. Is there any way a 12-1 SEC champion would NOT play for the BCS title?
Yes, this is putting a wobbly cart before a skittish horse. To get to 12-1, the Bulldogs have to beat Auburn, and then Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech, and then would come Alabama. (Provided Alabama doesn’t do something crazy like lose to Texas A&M and Auburn, which it won’t.) Let’s assume Georgia arrives at the Dome on Dec. 1 having lost only once to play the still-unbeaten Crimson Tide, and let’s assume the Bulldogs contrive to topple the mighty men of Saban. What then?
The teams ranked 2-4 in the BCS standings are all unbeaten. It’s possible, if not probable, all will stay that way. Kansas State still must play Texas on Dec. 1, and the Wildcats might have to face TCU this Saturday without quarterback Collin Klein, who suffered a head injury against Oklahoma State. Oregon still must play Stanford and Oregon State, and it could meet USC, which the Ducks just beat 62-51, again in the Pac-12 title game. Notre Dame must play at USC on Nov. 24.
But what if Kansas State, Oregon and Notre Dame — or two of the three — are still undefeated at the close of business Dec. 1? Should a one-loss SEC champ get the nod over any of the above?
For Georgia: Having taken the past six national championships, the SEC has essentially become college football. Only last year we saw an Alabama team that didn’t win its division play for the BCS title, which it won. The Bulldogs could make the argument that other one-loss SEC champs — LSU in 2003, Florida in 2006 and 2008 — and even the two-loss LSU of 2007 have not only qualified for the national championship game but won the thing.
Against Georgia: Undefeated is undefeated, even if you’re not from the SEC. (Or, in Notre Dame’s case, from any league.) And surely there are folks in other precincts who have wearied of SEC domination and would lobby long and loud that somebody else deserves a chance.
Also against Georgia: Its schedule. The Bulldogs have played only two ranked teams, and they lost to one of those by 28 points.
Georgia’s rebuttal: Alabama would make a third ranked opponent, and if the Bulldogs beat an unbeaten Bama they’d have registered victories over a team ranked No. 1 in the BCS standings and another (meaning Florida) that was No. 2.
For our concluding word, we turn to Brad Edwards, who monitors the BCS for ESPN Insider. His verdict: For a 12-1 Georgia to play for the national title, “two of the three undefeated teams ranked above it have to lose.”
That’s it? No SEC-deserves-a-spot groundswell? Said Edwards: “If (Georgia jumping any of the unbeatens) did happen, it would be because of the SEC’s six consecutive championships … (But) I don’t think even a one-loss SEC champ is going to finish ahead of any of those teams. I don’t think any of the teams in the group is considered a fraud. Notre Dame has skeptics, but people still believe it has a championship-caliber defense.”
About Georgia: “You also have the factor of that one loss. If Georgia’s profile were more like Alabama’s last year, where you lost to a top team in overtime and dominated everybody else you played, it might be different.”
What about those one-loss SEC champs who’ve reached the title game? “The difference is, in every case those teams were beating out another one-loss team, or another two-loss team in LSU’s case (in 2007). If those three teams stay undefeated, I really don’t see many voters putting Georgia higher than fourth.”
Edwards’ salient point: No once-beaten team has made the BCS title game ahead of an unbeaten team from any major conference. For all the griping about this screwy system, that much has been a constant: Undefeated is undefeated. (Although tell that to 9-0 Louisville of the Big East, ranked No. 9 in the BCS standings.)
For these unlucky ‘Dogs, just coming close would be more of the same. In 2002, a 12-1 Georgia finished third in the BCS standings, missing the title game because Miami and Ohio State were undefeated. In 2007, the 9-2 Bulldogs were No. 4 in the penultimate rankings, whereupon two teams ahead of them lost; Georgia, however, was passed in the final standings by three two-loss conference champions. And now, after seeing three BCS titles taken by one-loss SEC champs, this might be the one-loss SEC champ that never gets the chance.
Further reading: If you missed the weekly Heat Check (Georgia is mentioned), it can be found here.
By Mark Bradley
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490 comments Add your comment
Jeb Bush
November 5th, 2012
4:30 pm
Opps I meants…
Vote: Paul Johnson/Reggie Ball 2012!!!
Flo- Ri- Duh
November 5th, 2012
4:30 pm
UGA FORCED the turnovers against Florida….. it wasn’t luck. Get pressure on the QB and you are going to get turnovers. Same deal with the Game Crocks….. they forced UGA’s turnovers and deserved to win. Murray played well last wek – no turnovers. He needs to do the same against Aubarn and the OL needs to start blocking better in the 1st quarter. Aubarn would love to end UGA’s dream and will give their best effort of the year. Score on Aubarn early and get ahead by 14 in th 1st half is the key to victory.
Jason
November 5th, 2012
4:31 pm
Bama zealots: check out Zack M. carving up your secondary and ask yourselves honestly if AM is a better QB than ZM.
And No. 29 will be the best player on either side of the ball. Don’t be so smug.
GTBob
November 5th, 2012
4:34 pm
No GTBoob, what you fail to understand, you are only as good as last week according to the BCS
The final BCS polls will be determined by voters who have to be convinced that a team is worthy of a national championship birth. The dominance of the team in the regular season is always a factor when there is a decision between multiple teams. It is why Alabama made the championship last year. Because they passed the “eye test”. If you struggle against bad teams all season, you are going to fail the eye test.
Swamp Thing
November 5th, 2012
4:34 pm
Hey Mark – censored me again – the truth hurts a GEORGIA homer like you..
another reality grounded DAWG
November 5th, 2012
4:35 pm
I love to hear the whimpering of Georgia Tech losers . . . it’s like music! Cry, GT, cry! We WANT to read your sniveling! Post on the Georgia stories, because nobody wants to read about Tech. See you at the game. LMFAO!
Flo- Ri- Duh
November 5th, 2012
4:38 pm
NO team – not even Bummer – would pas an undefeated top 5 team to play in the BCS. Oregon isn’t going to lose barring injuries. K-State maybe if their QB can’t play this week. Notre Dame doesn’t play a winning team the rest of the way and would have to beat themselves. Notre Dame was given two wins on their home on there home field by the refs. No surprise there. I don’t wat to see an inferior Notre Dame in the BCS champ game no matter what. If Bummer were to lose to UGA …. then I want K-STATE and OREGON if they are undefeated. Notre Dame is no better than #10 and couldn’t beat Bummer, LSU, S.Carolina, Florida or Georgia in the SEC.
Booze Hound
November 5th, 2012
4:39 pm
air of mendacity,
I am a GT (and Georgia Southern) fan. Man, Tech does stink this year. It’s hard to believe the number of Tech fans defending Johnson after three years of utter mediocrity and losses to Georgia.
As far as Georgia, I think they’re a talented team (probably 4th or 5th in the SEC) but too erratic to compete with Alabama, LSU, or South Carolina. Any of those teams has better coaching, too.
Tech Sucks
November 5th, 2012
4:41 pm
lol are Tech fan still around?? How is that even possible. Go away nerds. Basketball season is here. Good luck with that.
Warcraft subscriptions should be increasing with your awful football team in a tailspin.
Flo- Ri- Duh
November 5th, 2012
4:41 pm
I would even take Vandy and 3 over Notre Dame.
rescue dog
November 5th, 2012
4:45 pm
Georgia is NOT a top 5 team…if they played in the west, Bama, LSU and TAMU would all lay the wood to the dawgs..
Flo- Ri- Duh
November 5th, 2012
4:47 pm
Bummer’s DL got DOMINATED by the LSU OL in the 2nd half – not thought I would see that. LSU and Bummer – probably the two best OL’s in the country but Bummer could do little to nothing against LSU’s defense until Less Miles got stupid and went in to a prevent yourself from wining defense with 6 minutes to go. You have to keep the pressure on McCarron or he’s going to hit those 10 yarders on you all day. Also, why in the world did Miles pass up a sure 3 points with the lead and go for it on 4th down? Over all he coached well but this was a major dumb move on his part.
ARdawg
November 5th, 2012
4:48 pm
GTBoob
The top two BCS teams are determined by the accumulated BCS points. The top two teams leading in points play for the NC. Before I go on, do we agree on this?
Floyd
November 5th, 2012
4:48 pm
It was true in 2007 and it’s equally true today…any team which loses to South Carolina should be instantly disquailfied from national title conversations. No exceptions.
SSIgator
November 5th, 2012
4:49 pm
“UGA’s path to the BCS title game? It’s not a straight shot”
_______________
Why not Mark? You picked them to play in the NC game. Ooops
UK Dawg
November 5th, 2012
4:50 pm
Interesting article, but let’s be realistic. All this speculation is based on a massive assumption: UGA beats Bama. Sadly, the Dogs have the talent to pull it off but this coaching staff could never have them mentally prepared enough. They would have to play a couple of notches better than they did against Fla to beat the crimson necks. I.e. a little more offense, and zero turnovers.
It is true that even iv the Dogs pulled it off, we wouldn’t play for the title unless one of the three undefeated teams lost. By the way, at least one of them will lose – probably K State. The BCs has been pretty fair about picking the right #1 vs #2 based on record and strength of schedule. No one loss SEC team made it to the NC game because they were from the SEC, but because they ha dthe best record and schedule strength. On, and they all won the title fair and square.
This is the year that the SEC will not win the title. Oregon will beat ND in a pretty unexceptional game. It will be over by the 2nd quarter.
The Dogs have a chance next year to do something special if we can rebuild the defense enough. The strong schedule should be in our favor.
Flo- Ri- Duh
November 5th, 2012
4:50 pm
UGA’s defense is capable of standing toe to toe with Bummer’s offense but I don’t know if UGA’s OL is up to the task of pass blocking like LSU was. LSU has a superior OL but until last saturday Mettenbubba was awful. Are we sure that was Mettenbubba who cam out there in the 2nd half against Bummer?
air of mendacity
November 5th, 2012
4:52 pm
Boozer – sabin and spurrier agree – not so sure about the mad hatter – he is too erratic in his play calling to be considered a great coach. He did some stupid stuff v. AL and none of it worked. Have to remember that O-line for UGA is young in spots. they are inconsistent at best.
As far as Richt – who knows – at least we don’t worry about him on a Harley with a naked graduate assistant on the back.
Tech Fan
November 5th, 2012
4:52 pm
I hope Georgia wins the SEC, but I see thm in the Sugar Bowl playing Notre Shame..
daddo
November 5th, 2012
4:57 pm
Alabama will destroy Ann Murrary because they will eat the Georgia offensive line. LSU has an offensive line. Georgia aint LSU.
And Bama’s swiss cheese defense? You gave up 44 against Tennessee. Oh, but that was because you clay eaters said Tennessee had such an incredible offensive line. Wait till u see Bama’s.
Booze Hound
November 5th, 2012
4:57 pm
air of mendacity,
Richt’s not going anywhere as long as he continues beating Georgia Tech, regardless of where Georgia finishes in the SEC.
Dogs#1 - Moron
November 5th, 2012
4:59 pm
“BOOK IT!” Dumbest comment out there…
SSIgator
November 5th, 2012
5:00 pm
Mark Bradley,
“You have to wonder: If Richt doesn’t play for the BCS title with this team, will he ever?”
_____________
Well, just as you wrote the above in May of this year, the answer is now coming back around to you – Never.
Taylormade
November 5th, 2012
5:00 pm
Can’t see UGA going 12-1 but if they do there will be a huge difference in this one loss teams versus other past sec one loss teams…they barely lost there game not by 4 TD’s… Nor way should a team that lost by 4 TD’s have a chance at a BCS title
Rick James
November 5th, 2012
5:01 pm
@GTBob
Either Georgia makes to to the national championship game or they dont.Right now it’s just a lot of fun watching Tech fans pass bricks hoping it wont happen..Guess its takes your mind off of whats coming the last Saturday of November.
CrazyUGA
November 5th, 2012
5:03 pm
I hope Tech fans are ready for the last Sat of November, this will get UGLY.
Flo- Ri- Duh
November 5th, 2012
5:04 pm
Yes – next year the entire UGA OL will be back plus a couple of big time freshmen OL. However. Malcolm Brown. Tavarres King and I think Wooten will be gone along with Murray and Bennett will be coming off of rehab. Who will QB? So this will be a good offense if we can find a dependable QB. LeMay hasn’t played much at all in over three years and that is a problem. Talent he has but LeMay lacks experience. Special teams should be good if UGA can teach the field goal kicker how to kick straight. We sure could use Kevin Butler coaching these guys. Walsh is kicking great now, that he has a real kicking coach. Look forward to A&M taking on Bummer on the road. To bad it’s not in Texas. Gig the Tide!!!!!
CrazyUGA
November 5th, 2012
5:06 pm
A&M will upset Bama this weekend…Johnny football is on fire
Snoop
November 5th, 2012
5:06 pm
Realistically, this is Richt’s last real shot at anything of note for the next 3-5 years…
He’ll be gone within three years.
air of mendacity
November 5th, 2012
5:07 pm
tall order to beat AL no doubt, but these are college kids and wierd things can and do happen. As far as Richt leaving – not going to happen if he goes 12-1 – and if he wins SEC championship – then he will get extension. Richt just a little too laid back for my taste. If he starts only winning 8 games – he is out of there.
Jason
November 5th, 2012
5:10 pm
Flo-
A.M. will be back. You saw the South Carolina game, right?
Rick James
November 5th, 2012
5:11 pm
@Flo- Ri- Duh
Yes – next year the entire UGA OL will be back plus a couple of big time freshmen OL. However. Malcolm Brown. Tavarres King and I think Wooten will be gone along with Murray and Bennett will be coming off of rehab. Who will QB? So this will be a good offense if we can find a dependable QB. LeMay hasn’t played much at all in over three years and that is a problem. Talent he has but LeMay lacks experience. Special teams should be good if UGA can teach the field goal kicker how to kick straight. We sure could use Kevin Butler coaching these guys. Walsh is kicking great now, that he has a real kicking coach. Look forward to A&M taking on Bummer on the road. To bad it’s not in Texas. Gig the Tide!!!!!
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Murray is a red shirt junior he could come back next year too..
GTBob
November 5th, 2012
5:13 pm
Before I go on, do we agree on this?
Of course. Voters will manipulate the rankings to shape the BCS points how they see fit though. A UGA fan from 2007 should know that.
Jason
November 5th, 2012
5:13 pm
Snoop-
I’ve noticed that people use the word “realistically” a lot like they do “literally:” in other words, what follows is anything but realistic.
Georgia has played more true freshmen than anyone in the SEC. Most everyone, anyway. The future is bright. “He’ll be gone in 3-5 years” sounds like a GT pipe-dream more than anything.
Rick James
November 5th, 2012
5:13 pm
@CrazyUGA
A&M will upset Bama this weekend…Johnny football is on fire
———————————————————————————-
That is the last thing Georgia wants..
Flo- Ri- Duh
November 5th, 2012
5:14 pm
Why did you change the subject to UGA’s pass defense when I brought up Bummer’s Swiss cheese pass defense against LSU? Guess you agreed or wouldn’t have changed the subject. UGA’s pass defense is plainly better now with all the starting DB’s back with some reps under their belt. The key to any pass defense is the rush on the QB and Bummer couldn’t quite get there on Mettenbubba when it counted. To bad Miles didn’t go the pass in the 1st half or it could have been a a real surprise in the final score. I have to admit that Mettenbubba surprised me with his accuracy in this game and I think he surprised Miles and Saban. Against Florida he was awful.
GTBob
November 5th, 2012
5:14 pm
Either Georgia makes to to the national championship game or they dont.
You are changing your tune a little Rick James. Weren’t you telling me earlier that a 1 loss SEC champion UGA team would go to the BCS title game, no questions asked?
Jason
November 5th, 2012
5:16 pm
The people who insist on disparaging Richt never cease to amaze me. Consistent, honest, ethical, excellent, WTF do you people want? His one big mistake – the one that led to our 2-3 year malaise? He was too loyal to an assistant. He corrected that one year too late. In so doing, he fired the best man in his wedding. Too laid back for your taste? You want Will “BOOM———-” Muschamp? Seriously?
air of mendacity
November 5th, 2012
5:16 pm
yeah – I saw the Cocks game – it was an abberation – the game was over in the first 10 minutes. If Rambo had intercepted the ball instead of letting it go between his hands – who knows. The O-line was overmatched and the coaches were not prepared for some reason. But it is over.
Not making excuses but same thing happened to S. Car. at Florida. The game was out of hand before it started. A
Flo- Ri- Duh
November 5th, 2012
5:19 pm
I know Muray is a Jr. but he is already in graduate school and should finish his Masters before the next season begins. Mason came back with the understanding that Murray would turn pro and I think he will. I can see him being a 2nd round draft choice ….. still good money. He is the same height as Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees and he moves around pretty good. He will make some team a good back up next year and a starter down the road. .
Rick James
November 5th, 2012
5:20 pm
@Booze Hound
Richt’s not going anywhere as long as he continues beating Georgia Tech, regardless of where Georgia finishes in the SEC.
—————————————————————————————————————————–
He’s in the top 5 in win percentage amoung active coaches.He’s not going anywhere because he’s winning.I wonder though why Tech is hanging on to Paul Johnson..Ooops I forgot,no money to pay him off if they fire him.So they have to keep him no matter what..Good point just directed at the wrong school.
air of mendacity
November 5th, 2012
5:21 pm
what happened to my comment re gamecocks? Censored? oops
Flo- Ri- Duh
November 5th, 2012
5:21 pm
Common sense says that the influence that Notre Dame has on the news media that if they are undefeated they would go ahead of a once beaten UGA no matter what. They are not better than UGA but money talks and Notre Dame draws a lot of cash.
Jason
November 5th, 2012
5:23 pm
GT Bob-
How in the name of all things rational can you have a problem with the statement: “Either Georgia makes to (sic) to the national championship game or they don’t?”
That statement is water-tight. If he had qualified the statement with “assuming we beat Bama and win out, either Georgia makes it…” But he didn’t. Just because you know how to use fancy italics text in your posts doesn’t make you right.
(How DO you use fancy italics text in your posts?)
thrash
November 5th, 2012
5:24 pm
Georgia stands just about zero chance of being in the BCS game. They have to win out, which includes a rivalry game where anything can happen against Tech and an SEC championship game against Alabama. Alabama has almost as much assurance of beating Georgia as Georgia does of beating Tech.
Even if that were to happen, I don’t see any reason why Georgia should even jump Alabama, much less the undefeated teams. In that scenario, Georgia’s only loss would be to a decent South Carolina (by a large margin), and Alabama’s only loss would be to a good Georgia team. Advantage Alabama. But I guess Georgia fans will keep dreaming. Just don’t get your hopes up.
This year would have been nice for the playoff system to be in place huh?
Flo- Ri- Duh
November 5th, 2012
5:24 pm
Richt is 3 – 3 against Saban. I know Saban is glad UGA won’t have Bennett and Brown in that 5 WR set.
Jason
November 5th, 2012
5:27 pm
Rick James-
Let’s be fair. I’m pretty sure Georgia is still paying Goff. Does the fact that we simply have more money to play with than Tech make us right?
/reading from prepared remarks by M. Adams: “Yes. Yes it does.”
air of mendacity
November 5th, 2012
5:27 pm
how do you get back on after being censored?
14 Titles
November 5th, 2012
5:31 pm
Nick’s going to deliver a beatdown to ga in the sec title game. the Tide’s on a mission—going for BCS title 3 in 4 years, and 15 national titles. Tide blows out ga, beats oregon by 13. RTR!
air of mendacity
November 5th, 2012
5:32 pm
Jason – know for a fact not paying Goff – he got a one time lump sum payment.