UGA’s path to the BCS title game? It’s not a straight shot
These are the Oregon Ducks. Georgia wouldn't mind seeing them, er, quack up. (AP photo)
The last BCS title game not to include an SEC representative was staged in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 4, 2006, exactly one year before Nick Saban was introduced as Alabama’s new coach. The last BCS title game to include a team from a conference other than the SEC was staged in Glendale, Ariz., on Jan. 10, 2011, and by now you’re sensing where I’m going with this.
Georgia is No. 5 in the BCS standings. If it wins the rest of its games, it will be 12-1 and the SEC champion. Is there any way a 12-1 SEC champion would NOT play for the BCS title?
Yes, this is putting a wobbly cart before a skittish horse. To get to 12-1, the Bulldogs have to beat Auburn, and then Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech, and then would come Alabama. (Provided Alabama doesn’t do something crazy like lose to Texas A&M and Auburn, which it won’t.) Let’s assume Georgia arrives at the Dome on Dec. 1 having lost only once to play the still-unbeaten Crimson Tide, and let’s assume the Bulldogs contrive to topple the mighty men of Saban. What then?
The teams ranked 2-4 in the BCS standings are all unbeaten. It’s possible, if not probable, all will stay that way. Kansas State still must play Texas on Dec. 1, and the Wildcats might have to face TCU this Saturday without quarterback Collin Klein, who suffered a head injury against Oklahoma State. Oregon still must play Stanford and Oregon State, and it could meet USC, which the Ducks just beat 62-51, again in the Pac-12 title game. Notre Dame must play at USC on Nov. 24.
But what if Kansas State, Oregon and Notre Dame — or two of the three — are still undefeated at the close of business Dec. 1? Should a one-loss SEC champ get the nod over any of the above?
For Georgia: Having taken the past six national championships, the SEC has essentially become college football. Only last year we saw an Alabama team that didn’t win its division play for the BCS title, which it won. The Bulldogs could make the argument that other one-loss SEC champs — LSU in 2003, Florida in 2006 and 2008 — and even the two-loss LSU of 2007 have not only qualified for the national championship game but won the thing.
Against Georgia: Undefeated is undefeated, even if you’re not from the SEC. (Or, in Notre Dame’s case, from any league.) And surely there are folks in other precincts who have wearied of SEC domination and would lobby long and loud that somebody else deserves a chance.
Also against Georgia: Its schedule. The Bulldogs have played only two ranked teams, and they lost to one of those by 28 points.
Georgia’s rebuttal: Alabama would make a third ranked opponent, and if the Bulldogs beat an unbeaten Bama they’d have registered victories over a team ranked No. 1 in the BCS standings and another (meaning Florida) that was No. 2.
For our concluding word, we turn to Brad Edwards, who monitors the BCS for ESPN Insider. His verdict: For a 12-1 Georgia to play for the national title, “two of the three undefeated teams ranked above it have to lose.”
That’s it? No SEC-deserves-a-spot groundswell? Said Edwards: “If (Georgia jumping any of the unbeatens) did happen, it would be because of the SEC’s six consecutive championships … (But) I don’t think even a one-loss SEC champ is going to finish ahead of any of those teams. I don’t think any of the teams in the group is considered a fraud. Notre Dame has skeptics, but people still believe it has a championship-caliber defense.”
About Georgia: “You also have the factor of that one loss. If Georgia’s profile were more like Alabama’s last year, where you lost to a top team in overtime and dominated everybody else you played, it might be different.”
What about those one-loss SEC champs who’ve reached the title game? “The difference is, in every case those teams were beating out another one-loss team, or another two-loss team in LSU’s case (in 2007). If those three teams stay undefeated, I really don’t see many voters putting Georgia higher than fourth.”
Edwards’ salient point: No once-beaten team has made the BCS title game ahead of an unbeaten team from any major conference. For all the griping about this screwy system, that much has been a constant: Undefeated is undefeated. (Although tell that to 9-0 Louisville of the Big East, ranked No. 9 in the BCS standings.)
For these unlucky ‘Dogs, just coming close would be more of the same. In 2002, a 12-1 Georgia finished third in the BCS standings, missing the title game because Miami and Ohio State were undefeated. In 2007, the 9-2 Bulldogs were No. 4 in the penultimate rankings, whereupon two teams ahead of them lost; Georgia, however, was passed in the final standings by three two-loss conference champions. And now, after seeing three BCS titles taken by one-loss SEC champs, this might be the one-loss SEC champ that never gets the chance.
Further reading: If you missed the weekly Heat Check (Georgia is mentioned), it can be found here.
By Mark Bradley
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490 comments Add your comment
Yella Britches
November 5th, 2012
3:43 pm
Right on Time-
GT Bob is a GT homer that never sees anything wrong with our program and will fight you tooth and nail if you say one thing bad about GT. Thats not good posting…….thats a chip on your shoulder. I’m pretty sure he gives CPJ handies……
Mountain DAWG
November 5th, 2012
3:44 pm
Also like the UGA-ND matchup. Not sure if it would be for the NC, though. Would be interesting to see how ND handles REAL football.
Gary
November 5th, 2012
3:44 pm
Once again, the media is putting the cart before the horse. Dawg fans are only thinking about Auburn this weekend. Georgia is a team that almost lost to Kentucky and has now lost two of its most productive receivers. No ones at the game was talking about Georgia beating Bama. Anyone who has watched these games know that this team is not SEC Champ ready or a BCS contender. Kstate and Oregon would destroy us. Bama will kill them.
Flo- Ri- Duh
November 5th, 2012
3:48 pm
Unfortunately, Notre Dame was handed two wins on their home field by the refs. Southern Cal has better talent than Notre Dame but after 3 defeats does S.C. have the will to give their best effort? Kansas will destroy an average Texas team if Colin Kline is healthy. On UPSET ALERT I have Bummer this week against Texas A&M. Bummer made Mettenbubba look like Peyton Manning last week with their 2nd half Swiss cheese pass defense. Oregon still has a couple of tests ahead so we will see.
ARdawg
November 5th, 2012
3:49 pm
No they don’t count almost losses anytime GTBoob. The Human polls are the ones that have UGA at #5 now. Or are you trying to convince me that only on the final BCS poll do almost losses count? ND has had 3 almost losses so, I guess they are out of the BCS too huh?
JB
November 5th, 2012
3:51 pm
Wouldn’t GTBoob love to see Tech at 25, much less 5. Boy, that program is way down. They look nothing like Johnson’s first two years with real D1 players to work with.
G-Dawg
November 5th, 2012
3:52 pm
There she goes again….then by your assessment…if Bama beats Dawgs then they should drop in the polls, since we’re not considered a quality win because of our so called weak schedule. Since we’re watering down your schedule as well.
Booze Hound
November 5th, 2012
3:53 pm
This is about as pointless as talking about how Tech could still win the ACC this year. Even if the Jackets did squeeze into the ACC Championship Game as a 6-6 or (miraculously) 7-5 team, they would get whipped by Clemson or Florida State. As far as Georgia, they wouldn’t beat Alabama (or LSU).
Yella Britches
November 5th, 2012
3:54 pm
JB-
Yeah!!! well we beat Presbyterian….Did you?
Dave
November 5th, 2012
3:56 pm
Why are we even talking about UGA in the BCS at this point, Mark? We still have to play 2 rivalry games…granted against a struggling Auburn and GT. We’re a team of multiple personalities and you’re never sure which combination will appear. Until we are able to put together multiple complete games in a row (something we’ve yet to do this year), I don’t think we have a chance at beating Alabama much less have a shot being included in the BCS championship game. I hope we are able to be in the conversation come December, but I’ve been disappointed too many times to get excited at this point.
MarineDog
November 5th, 2012
3:57 pm
Ga. is #5 in the current BCS standings; the highest 1 loss team. Regardless of what some think, the top 6 teams still has a chance to make the big dance. It’s just that the undefeated teams have a better chance. Fans always seems to think more or less of opposing teams chances than what the actual coaches think. Saban doesn’t think that Bama is unbeatable. Nor does he think that the opposing eastern foe is just going to lie down because they are playing Bama. Oregon, KSU, and ND still has to get through the rest of the season. It’s a moot point for Ga. if they don’t beat Auburn. Based on the offensive balance, I think Ga. has a better chance to challenge Bama than UF. That’s just an opinion. ND lack of offense is going to eventually catch up with them. Oregon may have to face USC again. KSU might be without their QB, and they are playing TCU next week at TCU and they also have TX left. You never know what TX team is going to show up.
From my perspective, I have learned not to count anyone out, when the outcome can be decided by just 1 game. That’s why college football is so much fun to watch.
Hmmm
November 5th, 2012
3:59 pm
I think GTBob is either Mark Brandley or Shultz… surely he is getting paid to stir the pot on every article they post…
NCDawg
November 5th, 2012
3:59 pm
At least one on the unbeatens has to fall coupled with UGA beating Bama for there to be any chnace at all. The Dawgs can not come out and look anything less than efficient against everyone else of their schedule for there to be any chance at all. Florida needs to beat FSU to bolster the Dawgs strength of schedule. Bama must be unbeaten and securely #1 for there to be any chance.
Beating a strong #1 would get us a 2 place bounce. So 1 of the unbeatens must go down inorder to make it into the #2 spot. No other scenario, save 2 or more of the unbeatens falling would punch the ticket to Miami.
air of mendacity
November 5th, 2012
3:59 pm
this is a test submission – go dawgs
Flo- Ri- Duh
November 5th, 2012
4:00 pm
LSU outplayed Bummer physically on the line and in the coaches box. Unfortunately Less Miles forgot how to coach in the last 6 minutes and went to a prevent your self from winning defense. Also passing up an easy field goal for a 4th and 3 play was a bad call for Less Miles. Take the points on your home field and kick off. Feel or Marlon Brown and Michael Bennett – hard luck for the Dawgs. Just find a way to get past Aubarn, who only lost to LSU 12 10 and w will worry about Bummer later.
Swami SEZ
November 5th, 2012
4:00 pm
UGA will srtuggle with Auburn. Book it!
BjohnDawg
November 5th, 2012
4:01 pm
Sorry but Notre Dame is no legit.
Barely beat a BYU team that is 5-4
Barely beat Purdue
Barely beat a bad Pitt team in 3 OTS and really should have lost that game.
USC may just blow them up.
If they play BAMA….they get spanked…badly.
Bad Dawg, Yeck
November 5th, 2012
4:02 pm
Amazing to me that we’re even having this discussion. Dawgs get demolished by USC and barely get by Gators (only because Gator beat themselves) and they’re a Top 5 team? The football gods are being very kind to Uga because he likes ugly dogs. Weak schedule and your .500 against quality teams. Plezzzzz. You’re no where near Bama, LSU, Oregon, KSU and Irish. Another year, more hype.
air of mendacity
November 5th, 2012
4:03 pm
saying here if N. Dame stays ahead of UGA, it is a mockery of a travesty of a sham. If UGA showed up and played as they are capable of playing – no contest with the golden domers
DawginJail
November 5th, 2012
4:04 pm
Mark, I don’t care who you are that was FUNNY.
UGA can't even be mentioned.......
November 5th, 2012
4:06 pm
UGA Dawgs can’t even be mentioned in the same breath as University Of Alabama Crimson Tide…..the Dawgs $uck!
Flo- Ri- Duh
November 5th, 2012
4:06 pm
Don’t expect an easy game against Aubarn but UGA will win. Marlon Brown will be missed. Aubarn will start a freshman QB against UGA. Bring the pressure and get the turnovers. This will be Chizik’s swan song. No way the Aubarn is going to put up with having 60 + points scored on them and losing in a blow out to A&M. Aubarn gave up in that game and that is a rare thing to see. Last week was like a bye for them as Lowndes High could have beat the team they played. This will be the 3rd very physical game in a row for UGA and they can’t afford any more injuries.
Plezzzz
November 5th, 2012
4:08 pm
More hype…..you get smashed by USC and beat Gators because Gators beat themselves. So your .500 against team that matter. You shouldn’t even be in Top 5 so count your blessings! Yes Tech lost to Middle Tennessee State and having a touch year. Have you forgotten your 6-6 and loss to Central Florida? You’re still 2nd tier SEC and you can’t stand because you know it. Saban will win his 3rd national championship at Bama and 4th overall. And, ah, it’s been how many years since you one and only? 32 long years!!!!
Cdpridg
November 5th, 2012
4:09 pm
If you are a 12-1 SEC Champion and you defeat a undefeated #1 and #2 team in the nation….you will be playing for the Natl title…end of story.
Yeth Thir
November 5th, 2012
4:11 pm
The dogs go down 2 more times before the end of the season. They won’t get a shot at Bama.
Two to the shoe
November 5th, 2012
4:11 pm
I agree NCDawg. At the start of the season we all acknowledged GA’s favorable schedule. I’d like to point out and reiterate that Alabama, Oregon, Kansas State, ND, etc have played equally bad schedules. Back to my point, most agreed that we would need to run the table in order to go the the MNC game. Well, that loss is SC would not have been so hurtful except for the way we lost it. Plus, freaking Gameday was there. All that said, it was a loss to a top 10 team. GA beat the #2 ranked team at the time (another media darling) and now, if we take care of business, have the opportunity to play the #1 ranked team. “IF” by some miracle that we were able to pull that off, I dont see how anyone can argue that we dont deserve a spot in. I dont care if you are undefeated if you play a bunch of scrubs. Orgeon, Kansas State, and ND havent beaten anyone of consequence.
Oregon’s best wins:
Washington (no better than Mizz)
USC (No better than FLA/Ole Miss)
Kansas State’s best wins:
Oklahoma (no better than FLA)
WV (No better than Ole Miss)
ND’s best wins:
Oklahoma (no better than FLA)
Michigan State (no better than Ole Miss)
GTBob
November 5th, 2012
4:11 pm
ND has had 3 almost losses so, I guess they are out of the BCS too huh?
When it comes to the end, if there are multiple undefeated teams, Notre Dame’s close calls will be an issue with voters who are deciding who to put into the National Championship.
ARdawg
November 5th, 2012
4:12 pm
Bjohndawg
Laugh if you will but I don’t think Bama is going to spank Georgia. Sure, on paper they will beat us. Ask anyone and they will say Bama wins, just like they did Mizzou, FL and (sic) SC. UGA gets no respect and frankly, hasn’t earned any. That doesn’t preclude that UGA is a bad team or a push over. They are not. Georgia can beat Bama. Bama isn’t the Packers.
I will say this; anytime Saban has multiple weeks or months to prepare, he is unbeatable. This won’t be the case in the SECG. Georgia does have the team to beat Bama. No, I don’t see a spank, I see a good game that will be difficult to win from a UGA perspective
Jeffrey
November 5th, 2012
4:12 pm
What if we wipe the floor with Bama? Not likely but it if we really killed them that could do it.
West is not Best
November 5th, 2012
4:13 pm
Tired of hearing about UGA’s schedule. Bama did not have to play the 3 best teams in the East.
LSU & Texas A&M will be the only two tough teams Bama has to play all year (sorry, Michigan doesn’t count).
BOY THAT DAWG IS UGLY
November 5th, 2012
4:14 pm
JB….I’ll follow Tech at any record versus Dawgs in the state. Who will get arrested this off season? Who will be suspended? Who will disgrace the program? Not willing to sell the insitution for one sport played on 12 Saturdays each year. By the way….4, yes 4 national championships!!
Flo- Ri- Duh
November 5th, 2012
4:16 pm
BUMMER was outplayed and lucked out on the ONLY top 15 quality team they have played this year. Talking about LSU. LSU lost to Florida. Florida lost to Georgia. That is why UGA can beat Bummer. Losing Malcolm Brown definitely hurts but UGA still has the talent to beat Saban. Mettenbubba looked like Peyton Manning with LSU’s average receivers against Bummer’s Swiss cheese pass defense. Like I said Bummer has played ONE quality team this year and got out played. This coming saturday Bummer will face a Texas A&M that has a good offense – however they did lose to Ole Miss the last play of the game. Look for A&M to score at least 24 on Bummer’s Swiss cheese pass defense. Can they hold Bummer’s offense to 23?
Two to the shoe
November 5th, 2012
4:17 pm
Tech fans have no credibility or a voice in the conversation. Your school sucks, your buggy sucks, your fight son sucks, your stadium sucks, and your girls have hairy legs and arm pit hair.
air of mendacity
November 5th, 2012
4:18 pm
bama and quackers look the best (though I doubt ducks D). UGA would beat K St. or N. Dame. And we will likely get chance to prove it unless we are blown out of SEC championship. And GT fans who think we will lose 2 of last 3 – well – just say I understand how you believe Paul Johnson is great coach and guy.
ARdawg
November 5th, 2012
4:18 pm
When it comes to the end, if there are multiple undefeated teams, Notre Dame’s close calls will be an issue with voters who are deciding who to put into the National Championship.
No GTBoob, what you fail to understand, you are only as good as last week according to the BCS (which is composed of the human pools). Once the week is done, it’s done and doesn’t change future weeks or standings. Almost losses don’t come into although they could affect some voters in razor thin decisions for the polls. There are no “almost” losses GT
Boise Dawg
November 5th, 2012
4:19 pm
Alabama is in the same exact position as Georgia. If they had lost to LSU or lose to Georgia in championship game they aren’t getting in either. Bottom line, the way it is unfolding a 1-loss SEC team is not getting into championship game over undefeated PAC-12, Big 12 and Notre Dame.
If there is only 1-undefeated team and a bunch of 1-loss teams and Georgia happens to be one of those teams, then they will have a strong argument… but schedule strength could come back to bite them. A win over Alabama would help immensly in such a situation I suspect.
Jason
November 5th, 2012
4:20 pm
All the Bama fans that are so dismissive of Georgia might want to look at the tape of Zack Mettenberger dicing up your secondary like butter and ask yourselves: is Aaron Murray a better quarterback than ZM?
You also might want to consider the fact that the best player on either side of the ball will be No. 29, and note the difference between Georgia’s defense when JJ has played and when he has not. Georgia has the talent to beat any team in the country.
And I seem to remember e few “deeply flawed” LSU teams winning the MNC. A lot of football to be played, people.
'94 UGA Alumnus
November 5th, 2012
4:20 pm
Hey guys,
I have to be honest here. I don’t think we’ve done anything up to this point to prove we deserve to be in the BCS Championship game. Now if we go out and beat Bama and convincingly that would be a different stoty but that’s a mighty tall order.
Booze Hound
November 5th, 2012
4:20 pm
Silly conversation: Georgia couldn’t beat Alabama. For that matter, they couldn’t beat South Carolina or LSU, either.
Flo- Ri- Duh
November 5th, 2012
4:24 pm
Bummer is “human” – showed weakness against LSU’s previously anemic passing attack. UGA can pass….. it won’t be a blowout unless UGA turns the ball over early and hands the game to them like they did against the Spud Game Crocks. Speaking of Spud – I see him going to the Game Crock – Fil – A Bowl at best. Chiz? He’s gone at Aubarn already and he knows it. Reuben Foster – will soon be removing that Aubarn tat and flipping to – probably Bummer since he is from Alabama. Yelden flipped from Aubarn to Bummer last year as Aubarn’s top recruit and Foster is next. UGA will pick up one flip from Aubarn when Chiz is given the boot.
2014 cant get here soon enough
November 5th, 2012
4:26 pm
top four teams in playoff. Period.
Once again, Mark Richt’s failure to “coach em up” early in the season has resulted in another lost opportunity for the dawgs. Had we beaten south carolina, we would be on track (if we win out) to be playing in a national semi final game vs Alabama. Every year, one brain fart away…..
One day, he’s gonna figure out that he needs to sustain intensity for the whole season. of course, when we go to a playoff (and if we were to win it all) that may make his yearly brain fart game irrelevant.
Stinger 2
November 5th, 2012
4:26 pm
Birddawg@3:01: You said UGA does not have a chance against Alabama. “Its the coaching”. I believe Richt has a winning record against Saban in the SEC or at least since he has been at Alabama. Yes I am a GT fan but I also like UGA.
2014 cant get here soon enough
November 5th, 2012
4:26 pm
top four teams in playoff. Period.
Once again, Mark Richt’s failure to “coach em up” early in the season has resulted in another lost opportunity for the dawgs. Had we beaten south carolina, we would be on track (if we win out) to be playing in a national semi final game vs Alabama. Every year, one brain fart away…..
One day, he’s gonna figure out that he needs to sustain intensity for the whole season. of course, when we go to a playoff (and if we were to win it all) that may make his yearly brain fart game irrelevant.
Stinger 2
November 5th, 2012
4:26 pm
Birddawg@3:01: You said UGA does not have a chance against Alabama. “Its the coaching”. I believe Richt has a winning record against Saban in the SEC or at least since he has been at Alabama. Yes I am a GT fan but I also like UGA.
air of mendacity
November 5th, 2012
4:26 pm
yeah – but boozer – it could happen one time. Alablama looks vulnerable. Lot of ifs, but it is nice to be able to have the discussion. What if you were a GT fan? – life would be horrible guy. They just stink and have for years on end. It is sad really
Stinger 2
November 5th, 2012
4:26 pm
Birddawg@3:01: You said UGA does not have a chance against Alabama. “Its the coaching”. I believe Richt has a winning record against Saban in the SEC or at least since he has been at Alabama. Yes I am a GT fan but I also like UGA.
Jeb Bush
November 5th, 2012
4:26 pm
Who you fellers boting for tomorrow? I cant decide.
GTBob
November 5th, 2012
4:28 pm
I dont care if you are undefeated if you play a bunch of scrubs. Orgeon, Kansas State, and ND havent beaten anyone of consequence.
If you look at the overall schedules, it is hard to argue that K-State and ND haven’t played tougher schedules then UGA. Oregon is close though.
Swamp Thing
November 5th, 2012
4:29 pm
UGA vs BAMA – Pretenders vs Contenders. Remember the score against LSU last year? Georgia needs to worry about “War-Damn-Eagle” and Chizik, who is a UF grad and on his way out of Auburn..
Jeb Bush
November 5th, 2012
4:29 pm
Vote: Paul Johnson/Reggie Bush 2012!!!