UGA’s path to the BCS title game? It’s not a straight shot
These are the Oregon Ducks. Georgia wouldn't mind seeing them, er, quack up. (AP photo)
The last BCS title game not to include an SEC representative was staged in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 4, 2006, exactly one year before Nick Saban was introduced as Alabama’s new coach. The last BCS title game to include a team from a conference other than the SEC was staged in Glendale, Ariz., on Jan. 10, 2011, and by now you’re sensing where I’m going with this.
Georgia is No. 5 in the BCS standings. If it wins the rest of its games, it will be 12-1 and the SEC champion. Is there any way a 12-1 SEC champion would NOT play for the BCS title?
Yes, this is putting a wobbly cart before a skittish horse. To get to 12-1, the Bulldogs have to beat Auburn, and then Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech, and then would come Alabama. (Provided Alabama doesn’t do something crazy like lose to Texas A&M and Auburn, which it won’t.) Let’s assume Georgia arrives at the Dome on Dec. 1 having lost only once to play the still-unbeaten Crimson Tide, and let’s assume the Bulldogs contrive to topple the mighty men of Saban. What then?
The teams ranked 2-4 in the BCS standings are all unbeaten. It’s possible, if not probable, all will stay that way. Kansas State still must play Texas on Dec. 1, and the Wildcats might have to face TCU this Saturday without quarterback Collin Klein, who suffered a head injury against Oklahoma State. Oregon still must play Stanford and Oregon State, and it could meet USC, which the Ducks just beat 62-51, again in the Pac-12 title game. Notre Dame must play at USC on Nov. 24.
But what if Kansas State, Oregon and Notre Dame — or two of the three — are still undefeated at the close of business Dec. 1? Should a one-loss SEC champ get the nod over any of the above?
For Georgia: Having taken the past six national championships, the SEC has essentially become college football. Only last year we saw an Alabama team that didn’t win its division play for the BCS title, which it won. The Bulldogs could make the argument that other one-loss SEC champs — LSU in 2003, Florida in 2006 and 2008 — and even the two-loss LSU of 2007 have not only qualified for the national championship game but won the thing.
Against Georgia: Undefeated is undefeated, even if you’re not from the SEC. (Or, in Notre Dame’s case, from any league.) And surely there are folks in other precincts who have wearied of SEC domination and would lobby long and loud that somebody else deserves a chance.
Also against Georgia: Its schedule. The Bulldogs have played only two ranked teams, and they lost to one of those by 28 points.
Georgia’s rebuttal: Alabama would make a third ranked opponent, and if the Bulldogs beat an unbeaten Bama they’d have registered victories over a team ranked No. 1 in the BCS standings and another (meaning Florida) that was No. 2.
For our concluding word, we turn to Brad Edwards, who monitors the BCS for ESPN Insider. His verdict: For a 12-1 Georgia to play for the national title, “two of the three undefeated teams ranked above it have to lose.”
That’s it? No SEC-deserves-a-spot groundswell? Said Edwards: “If (Georgia jumping any of the unbeatens) did happen, it would be because of the SEC’s six consecutive championships … (But) I don’t think even a one-loss SEC champ is going to finish ahead of any of those teams. I don’t think any of the teams in the group is considered a fraud. Notre Dame has skeptics, but people still believe it has a championship-caliber defense.”
About Georgia: “You also have the factor of that one loss. If Georgia’s profile were more like Alabama’s last year, where you lost to a top team in overtime and dominated everybody else you played, it might be different.”
What about those one-loss SEC champs who’ve reached the title game? “The difference is, in every case those teams were beating out another one-loss team, or another two-loss team in LSU’s case (in 2007). If those three teams stay undefeated, I really don’t see many voters putting Georgia higher than fourth.”
Edwards’ salient point: No once-beaten team has made the BCS title game ahead of an unbeaten team from any major conference. For all the griping about this screwy system, that much has been a constant: Undefeated is undefeated. (Although tell that to 9-0 Louisville of the Big East, ranked No. 9 in the BCS standings.)
For these unlucky ‘Dogs, just coming close would be more of the same. In 2002, a 12-1 Georgia finished third in the BCS standings, missing the title game because Miami and Ohio State were undefeated. In 2007, the 9-2 Bulldogs were No. 4 in the penultimate rankings, whereupon two teams ahead of them lost; Georgia, however, was passed in the final standings by three two-loss conference champions. And now, after seeing three BCS titles taken by one-loss SEC champs, this might be the one-loss SEC champ that never gets the chance.
Further reading: If you missed the weekly Heat Check (Georgia is mentioned), it can be found here.
By Mark Bradley
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490 comments Add your comment
@ Yella Britches
November 5th, 2012
2:01 pm
A 40 point loss to Bama is not as bad as a 21 point loss to Middle Tennessee State
Yella Britches
November 5th, 2012
2:04 pm
@ YELLA BRITCHES
Yeah, but you guys think your good and that’s whats funny!!!!! we know we suck. You play that pitiful A$$ schedule against no one and you think that makes you relevant. It’s hilarious!!!!!!!
The Ghost of Wally Butts
November 5th, 2012
2:05 pm
Hell, within just 2 weeks…just 2 weeks…
Moaning about wanting to fire CMR because there was no way we could compete with the Floridas and Carolinas anymore and it sucked to go to the Shreveport Bowl every year……
to….
Moaning about the BCS system not giving us a shot at a National Championship if we win out….
Quite a 2 week turn-around….and living proof that no clinically sane human would want to grow up to be a head coach.
DCJohn
November 5th, 2012
2:06 pm
We can’t be 13-1 and play for a national title. We only play 13 games before the national title game. If there was a plus one, we would get to the title game by going 13-1, which unfortunately this year, there is not a plus one.
ralphc
November 5th, 2012
2:08 pm
The Dawgs are a deeply flawed team … as are the ‘Cocks and Gators. They could win the BCS game but are rhey really National Champion caliber? The answer is NO
The SEC really only has one stomp you in the face team this year and that is sadly Alabama. Everyone else is flawed and plays a weak schedule … especially Ga. Florids stunk in gheir first game and has generally struggled all season … yet they’re ranked inmthe topm10. The past is strong here ….
Ducks! Irish!!
Sunbury Ga dawg
November 5th, 2012
2:08 pm
If we go to the dome, beat Bama, then we will play in the game…..PERIOD!
one thing is for sure, we will beat Georgia Tech………..
KBP
November 5th, 2012
2:08 pm
If Georgia makes it to the SECCG and beats Bama, then there is no way Georgia should not garner enough votes from the human voters. None of the other teams will have even PLAYED number 1 & 2 let alone beat them. Since Bama is supposedly the ‘72 Dolphins and ‘85 Bears rolled into one magnificent team and IF the poor little Dawgs somehow pull a monumental upset, how can Georgia not get a shot at the NC.
Please, enough about Georgia’s schedule. You think a healthy Notre Dame beats a healthy SC, Fl, GA this year? What about K-State beating those 3 teams? Oregon? Explosive offensive but horrible defense. While I am at it, who has Bama played? Look at their schedule. Their signature win is against an offensively challenged 5th ranked LSU team. Every other win on their schedule is nothing to shout about. Georgia’s signature win is against an offensively challenged 2nd ranked, again 2nd ranked Florida Gators team. Every other win on Georgia’s schedule is nothing to shout about either. If you are going to question Georgia’s schedule then you can rightly question Bama’s. If would be a travesty to miss the NC game if they beat #1 and #2 this year.
Mark Bradley
November 5th, 2012
2:09 pm
You’re right, DCJohn. Thanks. Sorry.
Sports Illustrated
November 5th, 2012
2:11 pm
Thanks Steve. Care to rate the probabilty of each of those happening?
KBP
November 5th, 2012
2:14 pm
Ghost of Wally Butts – “Quite a 2 week turnaround. . . and living proof that no clinically sane human would want to grow up to be a head coach”
GREAT COMMENT!
GTBob
November 5th, 2012
2:14 pm
If would be a travesty to miss the NC game if they beat #1 and #2 this year.
Not really. They almost lost to Kentucky and Tennessee and they got blown out by South Carolina. Those bad games don’t just disappear because they beat one great team and one overrated team.
Yella Britches
November 5th, 2012
2:15 pm
Sunbury Ga Dawg-
Yeah, you will beat GT. Just one more bad team in a long line of pitiful opponents you have played this year…… Your schedule is ridiculous…..it’s hilarious!!!!!!!! By the way you WON”T beat BAMA. I feel so bad for all you little Mutt fans on here with such high hopes. It’s so delusional it almost makes me feel bad for you…..Like a little sad kid thinking he’s a big man….
K
November 5th, 2012
2:18 pm
Let’s just get by the Tigers first.
Nacho Cheese Sauce
November 5th, 2012
2:18 pm
I’d rather watch UGA play Notre Dame here or in south bend, then watch UGA play Georgia Southern : ( Again whom you schedule matters to the BCS. If Georgia played SEC plus big conference games each year then fans and the BCS would be happy. We would have no excuses, yet the AD schedules cupcakes, why? I remember we did have I think Oregon State and Ohio State on home and away schedules yet we backed out, why?
Beast from the East
November 5th, 2012
2:19 pm
The Dawgs will need Bama to remain undefeated and hope that 2 of the other 3 teams drop a game. There is no way they will pass KSU, Oregon or ND if they remain undefeated…nor should they. All 4 will have similar strengths of schedule and UGA dropped a game.
Yella Britches
November 5th, 2012
2:20 pm
POOR POOR Mutt fans….. I almost feel sorry for you. It’s like a little delusional kid who has hopes of one day playing in the NFL…. You feel bad for him because he has such high hopes but just doesn’t realize it’s not going to happen. You will win out the rest of your pathetic schedule composed of some of the worst teams in NCAA football including GT and then the 40 point thumping by BAMA will bring you back to earth…. I hate it for you. Have fun at the Outback Bowl.
common sense
November 5th, 2012
2:20 pm
Of course they shouldn’t. They effing lost and lost bad.
Devil's Advocate
November 5th, 2012
2:21 pm
ND is going to lose to USC.
Oregon needs to pray that UCLA upsets USC because they may lose a rematch based on the lack of defense displayed this past Saturday. USC would have nothing to lose and will go all out to contain the run (contain Mariotta and Barner) even if it means Oregon lights them up exclusively through the air. Oregon has been exposed as being a bully team. It’s easy to put all your eggs in the offensive basket and demoralize teams into lopsided wins but USC proved that Oregon’s defense isn’t nearly as good as suggested. At least UGA’s game against UT can be explained by that flukey 2nd quarter where UT took possession of the ball at the 50, UGA’s 8, and UGA’s 18 to score 3 TDs in just over 5 minutes. Oregon just flat out couldn’t stop USC anymore than USC couldn’t stop Oregon.
Oregon won the game in the 1st quarter by holding USC to a field goal and winning the turnover battle 3 to 1 (big INT in the 1st quarter kept USC from keeping pace early). Other than that, USC matched them point for point the rest of the way. This is a rematch Oregon doesn’t want if they can avoid it. Then again, except for the unexplainable loss against Cal, UCLA has actually looked good this year. Perhaps they could give Oregon a scare with that 1000 yard RB they’ve got by shortening the game.
Bama would slaughter Oregon because there’s no way the Ducks would run wild on the Tide. I think LSU and UGA could both beat Oregon too (UGA’s game would be a lot like the UGA-UT game’s score with Oregon not needing the turnovers to keep pace). A healthy South Carolina would match up well with Oregon.
Week 14 is going to be a good one.
bamaguy
November 5th, 2012
2:21 pm
I don’t think any once beaten team gets in if two of the current top four are unbeaten. The nation has SEC fatigue. The national media loves Notre Dame and Oregon and K State has the likely Heisman winner. Too bad for Georgia that the four team playoff is not yet in effect. In that scenario a win over Alabama would certainly put them in the playoff.
Yella Britches
November 5th, 2012
2:26 pm
Devils Assvocate-
UGA would beat Oregon??? Are you on crack? Who has UGA beaten this year that is relevant and don’t say Florida (WAAAAAYYYY Overrated)
Festus
November 5th, 2012
2:27 pm
When Thugga makes it to the SEC Championship Game they will be playing Alabama and will have the same chance as a bunny rabbit with a reticulated python with the munchies. Dem Doggies had two teams on their schedule: South Carolina and Florida. So the Poochies and 1-1. Prediction: Alabama 57 – UGA 0. At the end of the first half.
Mark Richt's Goatee
November 5th, 2012
2:29 pm
Gt Bob is the king of cut and paste.
oh, and in other news the sun came up today
James
November 5th, 2012
2:29 pm
I’ll play with your hypothetical one loss (which I say will never happen), but that one was a beat-down! Quality of losses probably means as much as quality of wins.
Dawg_Mike
November 5th, 2012
2:30 pm
NC game should not even be talked about.
Auburn is the only game that matters…..one at a time please.
Anonymous
November 5th, 2012
2:31 pm
And we have a winner, Ladies!
bamaguy, take a bow!
THE Dixie Redcoat Band
November 5th, 2012
2:33 pm
UGA should have beaten USC and be in the top 4…but….
CrazyUGA
November 5th, 2012
2:35 pm
For Dawgs to make, it two out of KState, ND, and Oregon have to lose. It doesn’t matter that UGA beat bama, no one will put UGA above those three teams, all have played good schedules, and all (outside maybe ND) are legit.
GTBob
November 5th, 2012
2:37 pm
I don’t think any once beaten team gets in if two of the current top four are unbeaten. The nation has SEC fatigue.
People keep saying this. It has nothing to do with SEC fatigue. There is no precedent for sending a one loss team to the MNC over an undefeated team from another major conference and the 4 current undefeated teams all have impressive resumes, some more impressive than UGA.
B'dawg
November 5th, 2012
2:37 pm
I get chills thinking about UGA beating Bama and by the grace of the voters and computers making it to Miami. But the powers that be,Mike Slive, it wont happen. He will not risk the chance of a once beaten UGA not making it, to end the SEC STRANGLEHOLD on the rest of college football. As much as that is wrong, somewhere in the back of everyones rational mind, you know Im right. Hey, but there is a lot of football left right?
G-Dawg
November 5th, 2012
2:37 pm
Agreed KBP. How can you not let a team who’s beat both 1 and 2 play for the title?
Giving Bama a mulligan last year really screwed the rest of the SEC. The nation is tired of seeing the SEC dominance..and will use the overall record against the dawgs even “if” they knock of #1. If pundits dont put an SEC team in the Natty Champ this year, it’ll be interesting to see if the viewer ratings for the game go way down.
JB
November 5th, 2012
2:38 pm
Did the storm “Sandy” hit Columbia? Haven’t heard much BS out of Sprurrier lately.
Devil's Advocate
November 5th, 2012
2:38 pm
The UGA schedule bashing is officially overrated.
Ole Miss is better than Arkansas and actually has an overall winning record. UGA has handed them their worst loss of the season (+1 for UGA).
Florida is not only good, but way better than most people expected and UGA won (+1 for UGA).
Tennessee has continued to improve so that’s not a pushover win.
Vanderbilt has either beaten or had close loses to everyone but UGA and Florida with UGA having the most impressive win against them.
Bama, SC, and UGA have all looked equally impressive against Missouri (UGA had to face them on the road in their first SEC home game so bonus points for not falling into the trap).
In Cupcake Week 13 Bama will be playing Western Carolina (1-9), Florida plays Jacksonville State (4-5), Auburn plays Alabama A&M (7-2), South Carolina plays Wofford (7-2), and UGA plays Georgia Southern (7-2). GT played Presbyterian (2-7) earlier this year and actually lost to Middle Tennessee State at home while UGA beat Buffalo and Florida Atlantic. I will give Tech credit for playing BYU.
Bonus. In 2010, Bama played Georgia State in their 1st season ever. In 2011, Bama played Georgia Southern.
I’m confused…why are people only talking about UGA’s schedule being weak and scheduling cupcakes again?
CrazyUGA
November 5th, 2012
2:39 pm
And all this nonsense, that Bama would crush anyone else (such as Oregon)–you never know until they play. Example – when OSU played FLA back in 07, everyone was CONVINCED OSU would kill Florida–we all know what happened. Same with USC vs. Texas. You dont know until you play. I think it would be an awesom matchup to see Oregon’s quick temp offense against that Bama D.
Beast from the East
November 5th, 2012
2:39 pm
Mark,
What are you hearing from Lexington about their next HC?
JB
November 5th, 2012
2:40 pm
Slive will not let Georgia beat Bama. Yea, you read this right. SEC heavily invested in Bama getting back to title game, and Slive won’t let ( his words) that Bible thumper with a good team every 5 years get in the way of it.
CrazyUGA
November 5th, 2012
2:40 pm
And how is it that just a few weeks ago after USCe game, everyone was screaming for Richt’s head, one moron kept typing it in all caps. And now he is the savior? Some bipolar fans here…
KBP
November 5th, 2012
2:40 pm
GT Bob, almost losing to Kentucky and Tennessee does not matter. Teams have won NC’s after barely beating lesser opponents on their schedule. Beating an overrated team doesn not count against your ranking either as you should beat an overrated team. For that matter, every team that Bama has beaten except LSU is overrated. (Look at Bama’s schedule) Duly noted that you are not a Georgia fan, but come on.
DawgFan87
November 5th, 2012
2:41 pm
What about the years Florida won the NC, they played do one those years, no alabama, no lsu, no auburns, but they were not considered to have a cupcake schedule. They had the holier than thou tebow and myer. If you pentalize one school for cupcake schedules then pentalize them all. GO DAWGS SIC EM WOOF WOOF WOOF
Beast from the East
November 5th, 2012
2:41 pm
JB
November 5th, 2012
2:38 pm
Did the storm “Sandy” hit Columbia? Haven’t heard much BS out of Sprurrier lately.
——————-
JB,
You should know by now that SOS only talks smack when he’s winning. He keeps a pretty low profile otherwise.
Patched Tire On I-95 in Jacksonville
November 5th, 2012
2:43 pm
Yellow Britches
Please enlighten us on who Tech has played this year; I cant wait to hear what powerhouse team Tech has gone up against
oh
You talk about poor mutt fans getting their hopes up
LOL
The only program that everyone should feel sorry for is Tech; thats right Tech; a program that has only 1 BCS “”level”" bowl appearance in almost 60 years
Now thats what is laughable
JB
November 5th, 2012
2:43 pm
Beast, I hear they really like that guy at La.Monroe i believe that had a good year last year and has them ranked 25th this year.
Yella Britches
November 5th, 2012
2:45 pm
I’m a Ramblin’ Wreck from Georgia Tech, and a hell of an engineer—
A helluva, helluva, helluva, helluva, hell of an engineer.
Like all the jolly good fellows, I drink my whiskey clear.
I’m a Ramblin’ Wreck from Georgia Tech and a hell of an engineer.
Oh! If I had a daughter, sir, I’d dress her in White and Gold,
And put her on the campus to cheer the brave and bold.
But if I had a son, sir, I’ll tell you what he’d do—
He would yell, ‘To hell with Georgia!’ like his daddy used to do.
Oh, I wish I had a barrel of rum and sugar three thousand pounds,
A college bell to put it in and a clapper to stir it round.
I’d drink to all the good fellows who come from far and near.
I’m a ramblin’, gamblin’, hell of an engineer!
KBP
November 5th, 2012
2:46 pm
Mark, heard anything about Petrino to UT? The east is already tough enough with Saban and Spurrier. Really don’t want Petrino in the east. He really “stepped in it” at Arkansas BUT he is one heck of a college coach.
JB
November 5th, 2012
2:47 pm
hearing lot’s of rumors about Tuberville. Anyone on here think he’ll end up back in Orange in Knoxville. He kind of a retread kind of guy.
steve
November 5th, 2012
2:47 pm
I went to UGA. My brother went to UGA and my daughter is a current freshmen at UGA. Needless to say, i follow the team. I don’t think this team is the number one team in the nation. They are too inconsistent in all phases of the game but especially on offense( Aaron Murray).A top 5 team-yes but not a #1.
Football Guy
November 5th, 2012
2:47 pm
Uga beating Alabama
Hahahahhahahahahahahahahaha
hahahahahahahahahahahhahaha
hahahahahahahahahaha
hahahahahahahahahaha
hahahahahahahaha
hahahahahahahaha
hahahaha
hahahaha
haha
haha
……………………………
……………………………
…………..
Beast from the East
November 5th, 2012
2:47 pm
DawgFan87
November 5th, 2012
2:41 pm
What about the years Florida won the NC, they played do one those years, no alabama, no lsu, no auburns, but they were not considered to have a cupcake schedule. They had the holier than thou tebow and myer. If you pentalize one school for cupcake schedules then pentalize them all. GO DAWGS SIC EM WOOF WOOF WOOF
————–
UF plays LSU EVERY year. And who do you think UF beat in 2008 in the SECCG? An undefeated Bama.
In 1996, UF had the #1 toughest schedule.
In 2006, UF had the #1 toughest schedule.
In 2008, UF had the #15 toughest schedule.
Might want to do some research before you open your mouth next time, moron.
JB
November 5th, 2012
2:48 pm
Tech fan putting the school song on here. Yea, if it fits….LOL
jerry
November 5th, 2012
2:49 pm
Hell, all the 1980 Dawgs had was Erk and Herschel and they Fluked out. Anything’s possible.
Snoop
November 5th, 2012
2:49 pm
Quit whining. Great that UGA beat Florida and unless they melt down in the Plains next weekend they will be playing Alabama in the SEC championship game, but come on…
First, it seems like Murray needs half a game to warm up. He won’t get such a luxury in the Georgia Dome against the Crimson Tide.
Second, South Carolina put a historical smackdown on UGA in prime time on national TV where even the commentators were making serious questions about UGA’s coaching and team demeanor.
So why would anyone think that UGA would be “entitled” to play for the NC if they upset Alabama? Nope, they made their own bed, now they can always talk about what “could have been.” Those players who were suspended can look at that ring that will not be on their fingers, or on their teammates’ fingers who they let down.
Kinda like 2007, huh?