The Braves’ OF took one Gold Glove. Shoulda been three
This was one of the few balls these outfielders couldn't snare. (AJC photo by Hyosub Shin)
There can be, I’ve come to learn, beauty in numbers, and the beauty in advanced baseball numbers is that they can reveal something we saw but didn’t quite see. (If that makes any sense.) For instance: If you asked, “Which Brave was more likely to swing at balls out of the strike zone — Martin Prado or Freddie Freeman?”, I’d have recalled all the times I saw the latter swing really hard at the first pitch and said, in a heartbeat, “Freeman.”
And, at least on this point, I’d have been right. According to Carson Cistulli of the ever-useful FanGraphs, 31.6 percent of Freeman’s swings came at pitches off the plate. (In sabermetric argot, those are known as “O-Swings.”) Prado swung at 26.8 percent of pitches off the strike zone. But if we ask, “Who was the more selective hitter?” … well, here’s where we’d have been fooled.
Cistulli reveals that Freeman swung at 75.4 percent of the strikes he saw,while Prado swung at only 48.4. (A swing at a strike is a “Z-Swing.”) Cistulli — who’s also a poet, FYI — writes: “It seems fair to suggest that a batter who demonstrates the greatest difference between his O-Swing and Z-Swing tendencies would be the league’s Most Selective Hitter.” Using that methodology, Freeman ranked No. 4 on the list of baseball’s most selective hitters. Prado was No. 1 — No. 1! — on the least selective chart.
Maybe you find this stuff unbelievably boring. There was a time, I must confess, when I’d have Z’d out at the mention of a Z-Swing. But the older I get, the more I realize how much I don’t know, and sites like FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus help fill the massive gaps in my knowledge. Which brings me, albeit in a way not unlike the circular routes Ryan Klesko took when chasing fly balls, to the Gold Gloves:
Jason Heyward won one, and he should have. But so should Michael Bourn and the aforementioned Prado. If we consult Baseball-Reference.com, we note that the three Braves’ outfielders led the National League at their respective positions — left, center, et cetera — in “Total Fielding Runs Above Average,” which is to say in runs saved. What’s more, the three Braves’ outfielders were, according to B-R, the three best outfielders at saving runs in the entire National League. Bourn saved 38, Heyward 23, Prado 16. (Actually Prado tied for third with the Giants’ Angel Pagan, who’s a center fielder.)
Back to FanGraphs: All three Braves’ outfielders ranked among the National League’s top 11 players in WAR (wins above replacement) index, by which sabermetricians swear. And here we see that the three Braves ranked 1-2-3 among all NL’ers at all positions in FanGraphs’ overall fielding (FLD) ratings.
The Gold Glove for National League center fielders went to Pittsburgh’s Andrew McCutchen, whose FanGraphs FLD number was minus-6.9. (This isn’t golf; miinuses aren’t good.) The Gold Glove for left fielders went to Colorado’s Carlos Gonzalez, whose FLD number was minus-8.5. Bourn’s number: Plus-22.4. Prado’s number: Plus-17.8. To borrow from the great Tennessee announcer John Ward: “Not … even … close.”
Managers and coaches vote on Gold Gloves, and not many among them are sabermetrically inclined. They use charts and numbers, sure, but they also rely on what their eyeballs tell them. And that’s my point: Sometimes in sports and particularly in baseball, our eyeballs deceive. We who watched the 2012 might not have grasped that we were observing one of the greatest defensive outfields ever assembled. But we were, and we did.
Further reading: Check the comments below this FanGraphs post on the Gold Gloves.
Still further reading: Remembering Pascual Perez, the Brave who made us smile.
By Mark Bradley
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90 comments Add your comment
MatthewH
November 1st, 2012
10:44 am
I think the problem is (and maybe this is what you were saying) that Bourn made it look TOO easy. Because of his speed, he was able to get to the balls easier and make the plays, and save runs. Because he didn’t have to dive and go all out all the time, the people who vote didn’t give him a gold glove. Just because he didn’t “flash the leather” doesn’t mean he isn’t worthy!
First again?
Dave
November 1st, 2012
10:46 am
I stopped caring about gold gloves after Palmeiro won in 1999 while playing 3/4 of the season as a DH.
Chipper should have won a gold glove in 2007 but the NY bias gave the award to Wright who had the 5th or 6th best fielding percentage and had over double the errors Chipper had.
Gold gloves are a popularity contest.
Bill
November 1st, 2012
10:49 am
Mark since Bourn is as good as gone thanks to Liberty Media who do you think the Braves can sign as his replacement. Pagan perhaps?
Mark Bradley
November 1st, 2012
10:59 am
Kudos, MatthewH. And I’m not sure that’s what I was saying.
Mark Bradley
November 1st, 2012
11:00 am
Angel Pagan’s price just went up, I think.
Nativebird
November 1st, 2012
11:00 am
Which team advanced 100% of the time to the Divisional round of the 2012 National leaque playoffs? Braves or Cardinals?
gtt
November 1st, 2012
11:05 am
True. And Pascual Perez is dead.
Bahwitdabah
November 1st, 2012
11:06 am
you couldn’t find a better picture than us giving up a home run? #haters
HUH?
November 1st, 2012
11:18 am
That article made my head hurt…but yes the Braves yet again get no love. Granted a Cardinal SS need the infield fly rule to help him make a catch
eastbound and down
November 1st, 2012
11:41 am
another reason to hate sabermetrics. although i suppose is a useful tool for agents to get more money for their players during arbitration hearings
Mark Bradley
November 1st, 2012
11:49 am
Not sure sabermetrics count for much in arbitration. Too esoteric.
Tennessee Joe
November 1st, 2012
12:01 pm
Thanks for the John Ward reference. Takes me back to a real, good time!
TommyP
November 1st, 2012
12:08 pm
I had no idea they were that good as a group. Excellent article.
I knew Bourn was about as good as you can find out in CF. I also felt Heyward was becoming an excellent defender. Prado was one I felt was solid but not great.
That said, I’d still love to see Prado in the infield, preferably 2B. That would mean shipping Uggla out but I’d much rather have someone else with less hollow production. We could definitely use a Beane-like player in his place.
DeepDiver
November 1st, 2012
12:14 pm
Way to go, Mark. You are embracing technology and the new wave of more advanced statistical indicators. You are evolving, and I salute you. I wish some of the people in baseball’s cadre of decision makers would do the same.
/I’m DeepDiver, and I approve this message/
extremus
November 1st, 2012
12:16 pm
Sad word on Pascual Perez. My condolences and prayers go out for his family.
Sonny Clusters
November 1st, 2012
12:17 pm
Arguably, Martin Prado is the most valuable Braves player and he is still a man without a position. The team will see who they can find in left field or 3B and then decide where Martin will play. We’d let him pick his spot – the one where he can flourish – and then we’d find somebody else to play around him. If he wanted 2B, he’d get it. We was thinking he’s a pretty good sport to play everywhere like he does and then enter the new season not knowing his position. He was an All-Star at 2B and they took his job away. Of course, Uggla was also an All-Star even though he was hitting about .207 at the time. Change the culture and change the results. It is time.
Sam
November 1st, 2012
12:21 pm
Yea, while trying to read the article, I got lost somewhere shortly after the Freeman vs. Prado question. Z-Swing, O-Swing, FLD? What has happened to you MB?????
Sonny Clusters
November 1st, 2012
12:23 pm
You know what? If we was Fredi Gonzalez we’d have a different spring training. There’d be no golfing or fishing, just baseball. We’d set our sights on winning the World Series and we’d act accordingly. The best players would break camp and the best lineup would play every day. If somebody was better than somebody else, they’d get to play and they’d bat where they would do the most good, not where their ego said they should bat. We’d teach bunting, and base running, and we’d practice throwing to the cutoff man. We’d learn how to move ‘em over and get ‘em in. Of course, we’re not Fredi and we’re not going to see that from Fredi and the Braves are probably going to win some pretty games in the regular season and be home for the playoffs again.
*{jj}*
November 1st, 2012
12:40 pm
Great job Mark. I always like for you to write about Braves.
Braves should try to make a trade with Padres for Chase Headley who is under contract for three more years at 12 milliom total. This would be a BIG DEAL.
If Braves can’t resign Bourn I would go after Shane Victorino 1st…..Another that I would try to trade for is kid named Ben Revere who is very young and damn good and Braves would have him for 4 years.I would go after Revere even if he was not to be a starter because he will be soon.
.
Another free agent I would be interested in would be Jeff Keppinger who can play all infield positions and back up 3b.
Thanks again Mark…and write more on Braves. All of these would fit Wren budget.
IlliniBrave
November 1st, 2012
12:47 pm
They should have an honorary funeral procession for Perez all the way around I-285.
JoeBravesFan
November 1st, 2012
1:01 pm
mlbtraderumors.com seems to think the Braves could acquire Shane Victorino if we can’t re-sign Bourn. Sadly, I don’t think we’ll have the funds to re-sign Bourn, but the Flyin’ Hawaiian wouldn’t be bad to have out there either. And if Prado moves to 3rd, I would like to see Constanza in LF. That would be a FAST outfield!
*{jj}*
November 1st, 2012
1:03 pm
Mark, Denard Span was another that should have won a Gold Glove but over looked..He had the best over all fielding for AL’ers in cf….maybe Braves should consider him for CF?
braveslover
November 1st, 2012
1:08 pm
Just read about Perimator Perez, sad day for Braves fans and his family. Thanks for the memories and the personality Pascal.
braveslover
November 1st, 2012
1:15 pm
Way to ease in to the 21st century Mark. Sonny you make wayyyy to much sense. Will you clip that post and send it to Fredi and Frank? Thanks for the memories and the personality Peremiter Perez.
braveslover
November 1st, 2012
1:16 pm
Sorry for the double post.
Rick
November 1st, 2012
1:29 pm
JoeBravesFan, Constanza is simply not an everyday ML starter, and one of the bats we add needs to have more pop.
Derwood
November 1st, 2012
1:47 pm
Move Prado to third, trade for Infante from Tigers, ship Uggla to who ever will take him and then try to find someone for left. Uggla has to go. Right fielder (I think) for Marlins is a good player day in and day out.
Derwood
November 1st, 2012
1:51 pm
Sonny Clusters is correct. The veterans use spring training as vacation time wiht family. Gold, beach, shopping. It is about base ball. They should be housed at stadium 24/7. They no longer know fundamentals. Veterans aught to really look at what happened to E-Rod during series. At least Giradi had guts to do what was good for the team. Fredi will never do that
Rick
November 1st, 2012
1:53 pm
Uggla’s not going anywhere Derwood. Teams with payrolls like the Braves’ can afford to eat that big of a contract. I also don’t why the Tigers would trade Infante when he’ll only cost $4mm next year and they just gave up some good players to get him. The Marlins’ starting RF is Stanton, and he’s obviously not going anywhere.
Rick
November 1st, 2012
1:54 pm
Derwood, already forgot that McCann was benched for the WC game?
Mr C
November 1st, 2012
1:57 pm
You lost me at Z-Swing and O-Swing. Do they have A-Swing, to Z-Swing? i know K-Swing means u struck out!!!! :p
Hola BackGrinder
November 1st, 2012
2:05 pm
Gold Glove voting is junk, I mean Jeter won 5 of them, they just don’t mean much. I blogged on them myself here Gold Gloves
gordonguy1969
November 1st, 2012
2:07 pm
Hey Sonny and you other advice-givers: the Marlins, Rockies, and Blue Jays are still looking for managers. Here’s your chance to show us just how good you really are!
JoeBravesFan
November 1st, 2012
2:11 pm
Rick, Constanza won the IL Batting Title last year. If we lose Bourn, we need his speed and ability to get on base on a daily basis. He doesn’t have the “pop”, but he can hit ‘em where they ain’t, which is the ultimate goal. Imagine Constanza getting on base and Prado batting behind him. Prado hits a double, Constanza scores easily from first. And he would have the speed to chase down balls in the outfield, that might have normally fallen for a hit.
glorydays
November 1st, 2012
2:14 pm
Nice article but….arguing numbers is part of the fun of BB. If numbers say that Freeman is more selective than Prado then they are being misinterpreted. Not all strikes are equal, some (perhaps many) should not be swung at as they are the pitchers pitch, the disciplined batter should let it go depending on the count. Prado is excellent at working the count, Freeman is not.
glorydays
November 1st, 2012
2:15 pm
Constanza is fast but he is not an excellent fielder, his routes are often scary.
bulldogbubba
November 1st, 2012
2:19 pm
Prado is your man at third.Put him there and leave him and you have an instant ALL-STAR, period. You have a good outfielder in Jorge Constanza.Take him and use those fantastic hitting instructors we have to improve his hitting and we have another fast runner on base to SCORE some runs and a decent runner in the outfield. Look at Gregor Blanco with San Fran who play here a few years back. He was the same player in Atlanta but we thought Matt Diaz and Grag Norton were what we needed so we traded him to Kansas City and lost a good ball player.We do have a decent team with what we have in players but when does Fredi and Frank start using them instead of finding HAS-BENS to fill positions. GO BRAVES 2013
Rick
November 1st, 2012
2:20 pm
JoeBravesFan, if we lose Bourn, we get a guy like Pagan or Victorino instead. Speed is a great tool, but it doesn’t matter if you can’t hit consistently, which Constanza can not in the ML. He barely can hit the ball out of the infield. The Braves have the money to get someone of worth. Promoting Constanza to full time starter would only be in the name of saving cash and would be a terrible decision. With Chipper gone, a down power year from Uggla, and uncertainties with McCann, another bat with pop is even more necessary for this lineup.
Steve
November 1st, 2012
2:21 pm
This is EXACTLY why I keep saying we need to keep Prado in LF and fixate on a true 3rd baseman. Prado is an elite LF’er. Prado is not quite as good at 3B, though I think he would still be a great starter there.
The OF’s available at a decent price for LF either can’t field or can’t hit, or can’t hit for any pop. Prado can do most of all of those, and the pop is not bad. Why overpay for a middling LF when we already have a potential All-Star there.
3rd base has better options and if the worst case scenario comes to pass we can try Francisco or TP there. Heck, we could put TP in at 2B and move Uggla to third, which I think he might actually be a better fit for given his lack of range but fairly quick hands (he can turn a DP very well, which requires footwork and good hands).
Don’t overspend on a crappy FA crop. Prado in LF, Uggla at 3B, Pastornicky or Janish at 2nd with the other filling a utility role. Go after Bourn for CF. We should be way under budget and we would have a decent ‘contact-hitting’ team with some pop. That is the recipe the Giants and Cards used very effectively.
Rick
November 1st, 2012
2:22 pm
Blanco hit 244/333/344 this year. Yeah he’s a real great player.
Tami
November 1st, 2012
2:23 pm
Sounds like our LFielder (Prado) and our CFielder (Bourn) got gipped!!
Sooooo sorry to hear about the death of Pascual Perez today. I hope they catch the morons who killed him!
Rick
November 1st, 2012
2:25 pm
Steve, there are far more options in FA this year in LF than there are at 3B. Name some specific 3B free agents we should go after if you disagree. And Uggla at 3B would be terrible. The worst part of his defense is his arm.
Steve
November 1st, 2012
2:27 pm
FYI … Prado has played 1359.2 innings at third base and has a .965 fielding percentage. That is nowhere near All-Star or Gold Glove.
People need to stop assuming Prado will be an All-Star or even league average at 3rd. He has had plenty of time to prove it and has NOT.
Give the Prado will be a deity at 3rd base talk a rest folks.
GT Alum
November 1st, 2012
2:28 pm
Well, and part of the problem with having managers and coaches vote on these awards is I wonder how much time they really have to watch other teams’ games. Sure they do it while scouting before they play them and while they play them, but the only players coaches and managers see much of are those in their own division. The rest it’s maybe 10-15 games (including scouting reviews) plus highlights. And we all know highlights, as fun as they are, don’t give a true picture of a player’s abilities and performance.
Bad Dawg
November 1st, 2012
2:30 pm
Transcript from this week’s UGA-Ole Miss Game-Planning meeting with CMR, CMB and CTG:
CMR: Today we have a special guest! I’ve invited Shawn Williams to join us because, as we saw, Shawn did a better job motivating the defense in 10 minutes than we have all year. Personally, I prefer gimmicks, but whatever, it’s our first winning streak vs UF in 25 years!
CTG: Speaking of gimmicks, I’m afraid to ask what are those red bracelets for?
CRM: Don’t be afraid Big Boy, these are WWSWD bracelets and we’ll be wearing them the rest of the year. Shawn, would you say a few words please?
SW: Thank you coach. It’s an honor to be here. I believe strongly in shifting the attitudinal paradigm; not just for the defense, not just for the team, but for the entire program! I believe in personal accountability for players and coaches alike! Many players here harbor dreams of playing in the NFL. Let’s embrace, nurture and build on that! Treat us like the men we are becoming. Decide who will play based on merit, not some seniority-based system that may keep our best on the bench.
(CTG and CMB stare unblinking with eyes big as saucers, mouths agape)
CMR: Whoa there Shawn baby. RELAX! Don’t go all Tony Robbins on us. We’re playing Ole Miss not Bama! I was looking for some positive vibes not a manifesto. What the heck are you majoring in anyway? Pretty words?
SW: I just want to add that the team is looking forward to you taking an active role in coaching the kickers. We’ve just got to fix the kicking game!
CMR: Thanks SW. As mentioned in last week’s presser, I’m going to first learn the ABCs of kicking then I’ll coach my tail off. Got a great head-start as Blair Walsh sent me “Ace Ventura-Pet Detective”. It’s a super-awesome instructional video for kickers and a cautionary tale as well. Seems this poor Dolphins kicker, Ray Finkel, missed a Super-Bowl winning chip-shot when Dan Marino botched the hold and naturally, he wound up turning into a woman. Since Ray, Dan, Blair, Marshall and I are all from South Florida, it really hits close to home. Apparently it’s vitally important to have the laces out when holding for a kick. Who knew, right?
CMB: I really don’t think MM will become a wom…oh, forget it. Let’s focus on the Black Bears.
CMR: Gotta tell ya fellas, just love that Hottie Toddy cheer! Had it stuck in my head all week!
CMB: Thinking we keep the good times rolling this week we are going to cancel practice, talk about how great we are, read our press clippings and watch the WLOCP again! We’ll be fine on Saturday-Murray can’t play worse, right?
CTG: (Red-faced, voice rising) I suggest you practice harder than that, your O managed a whopping 10 points on our 6 turnovers. We can’t gift-wrap games for you every week. On D we are going to keep the intensity up through public insults and
CMR: Don’t be such a Gasbag Todd! Let’s use our inside voices. No more sideline meltdowns either, try to be more like Shawn. Gotta run and talk to Vern and Gary.
Enter your comments here
Rick
November 1st, 2012
2:31 pm
Steve, the league average fielding percentage at 3B is 954 and RF is 2.55. As you pointed out, Prado’s fielding percentage is 965, and his RF is 2.7. So can you please explain how he’s not above league average now?
GT Alum
November 1st, 2012
2:33 pm
Rick -
It’s debatable whether the worst part of Uggla’s D is his arm or his lateral movement. Either way, those are the 2 most important parts of playing defense at 3B. While range isn’t as important at 3B as say SS, being able to move laterally quickly is, and Uggla doesn’t have range or lateral quickness.
Rick
November 1st, 2012
2:37 pm
GT Alum, either way, we agree Uggla is not a good fit for 3B. The reason I think his arm is the worst part of his defense is because it seems like the majority of his errors are on poor throws that sail well wide of 1B. And Freeman has saved his butt more times than I can count. His RF is actually not bad at all.
I say...
November 1st, 2012
2:47 pm
Clusters for manager of the Braves. He sure as hell can’t do worse than what they have. May you be in Gods arms Pascual Perez
SeATLite
November 1st, 2012
2:48 pm
One of your best columns in quite a while, Mark, and all the more enjoyable for being oh so true.
Jason
November 1st, 2012
2:51 pm
Prado purposely takes a ton of first pitch (strikes). I don’t think that should make him the least selective hitter in baseball. As you pointed out, he rarely chases outside the strike zone.
Ken Stallings
November 1st, 2012
2:58 pm
Good column, Mark! You statistically quantified what I felt was the case simply by eyeball.
I certainly believe Bourn deserved that Gold Glove. Was not so conviced about Prado but again your information made a very strong case for both.
muleshoe
November 1st, 2012
3:07 pm
Cincy’s Bruce should have been given the award Heyward was given…much better outfielder…and player…
Sonny Clusters
November 1st, 2012
3:14 pm
Clusters don’t just make this stuff up. We have played some championship baseball in our time and Coach was always telling us it was because we played the game right and played hard every play. We remember some Braves that wouldn’t run hard to base and we watched Dan Uggla have some of the most selfish at-bats we have ever seen at Turner Field. Sure, he walks a lot but so does a horse. The Braves need somebody to put the ball in play with runners on base and Uggla is not the one – or, at least he has not been the one. Maybe Swami Fredi will sprinkle some magic you know what dust on him and make him a better situational hitter. Then again, maybe not.
Ron
November 1st, 2012
3:22 pm
The best position available for Prado would be at 3rd, yes ultimately I think he should be at 2nd. But Uggla is going nowhere and no other position would be suit him, his contract is to big to be traded and would hamstring the Braves financially to do so. So that being said, you go out and find a LF which there are several options. Bourn I can gurantee will not be back, wants way too much money for again same financial reasons. Pagan, Victorino, or Spann or Revere or someone for CF. LF would be best served by trading for someone such as Willingham, C. Ross. Line-up would then be: 1)Victorino, switch hitter and lead-off. 2) Prado righty 3rd 3) Heyward ready for this spot RF 4) Willingham has the righty power been begging for LF 5) Freeman again good batter behind power guy 1st 6) Uggla does better behing Freeman 2nd 7) McCann/Ross C
Simmons good bat here while still learning league 9) Pitcher. Bench: D.Ross, Francisco, Pastornicky, R. Johnson, Left handed bat to be determined. Janish does not need to come back as he cannot bat off bench, Hinske, Overbay, Baker, Diaz do not need to come back! This line-up makes sense financially and makes for an exciting season!!
Stinger 2
November 1st, 2012
3:31 pm
The three outfielders lead a defense that was the best in the NL The bullpen was the best. The starting pitching became good with Medlin, Minor and Hudson being the top three in the latter part of the season. This was a very good team which won 94 games.
Yes thre is room for improvement and Frank Wren will make the moves necessary to get the players that are needed. Take it to the bank. And last but not least, Fredi G. did a excellent job of holding the team together during the time when the hitting was incosistent and with the loss of Beachy along to injuries to BMac and Simmons.
This manager is a blessing for the Braves regardless of what all of the haters and those who consistently call for him to be fired say. Along with the worst of the naysayers, there are those who continiously gripe about what they say is his inability to play small ball and that he does not manage the bullpen right and on and on. Sorry folks, and you know who you are, I say Go Fredi and Go Braves in 2013.
Rick
November 1st, 2012
3:41 pm
The defensive stats do not support your case muleshoe.
Dum-Bass
November 1st, 2012
3:59 pm
No Brave should have won anything. Too many awards are handed out right and left. Reminds me of the Pee Wee League where everybody gets a trophy. The players of any team that does not make the playoffs should get any type reward!
Tradem or Playem
November 1st, 2012
4:07 pm
Bradley you are right………Angel Pagan’s contract just went up from about a 7-8mil offer per year to a 10-12 mil per year deal.However looking at his numbers and Bourn’s numbers Pagan has had more Rbi’s,more doubles and more triples with a higher average than Bourn’s………the only difference I can see is Pagan steals about 20% less bases but his % of getting caught is lower………Of course Bourn is a great fielder and this is why Scott Boras will want a 4 year 60+ million$contract.I don’t think the Braves will be buyers at this price.Getting Pagan at a 4 year 45mil-50mil$contract looks like a steal.He can be a great leadoff man and adequate fielder.I also believe that the Brave’s ought to offer Teheran and Hanson/or Delgado(High price for future star outfielder) to KC for Wil Myers and put him in left…………just think Pagan leading off,Prado batting 2nd,Heyward batting 3rd, Freeman batting 4th and Myers batting 5th,Uggla 6,McCann(Ross)7 and Simmons 8th…………..that’s a lineup that will be just or almost as good as last seasons lineup………..and the pitching staff will be as or almost as good as last year since Teheran,Delgado,or Hanson were not very effective for the big league club!
Jeff
November 1st, 2012
4:11 pm
On the Prado swings, this doesn’t take into account that Martin almost always looks to work the count and take the first strike. That is a signifigant difference. I believe Freddie had a high rate of first pitch swings.
cheap move
November 1st, 2012
4:14 pm
Braves just got Schafer off waivers..just another damn good reason not to watch the Braves…Hope he leaves the drugs in Fla.
Who's on 3rd?
November 1st, 2012
4:19 pm
The Brave’s should trade Teheran,Delgado and Hanson to San Diego for Chase Headley!Hell throw in Avilan if they are willing to make a deal!
Freddie Freeswinger
November 1st, 2012
4:24 pm
If Freeman lays off those high strikes and low and outside breaking balls he could become a .300 hitter with 40+doubles and 25-30 homers a year!
tmc
November 1st, 2012
4:35 pm
I get why the National media doesn’t give the Braves any love…
But i don’t get why the Braves (organization) doesn’t give any love to their best player?
Martin Prado is BY FAR the Braves best player, a fan favorite, a do anything for the team guy….
And yet, the Braves won’t reward him with a multi-year good money contract.
What’s the guy gotta do? He’s even playing the organ in the freakin commercials!
C’mon Braves organization! catch up with your fans and pay the man and keep Prado around here for many years.
Otherwise when he get’s the chance and leaves through free agency, you got no one to blame but yourself (braves org).
(is it a classic case of not respecting your own employee over someone else’s employee? sounds like it)
Rick
November 1st, 2012
4:44 pm
Dum-Bass, besides that your opinion on the awards is dumb, the Braves did make the playoffs.
tmc, it sounds like Prado will probably get an extension this winter.
htownbravesfan
November 1st, 2012
4:49 pm
On a side note, since for some reason or another I can’t comment on the actual page with the story, if Jordan is our starting center fielder next year, we can abandon all hope of improving offensively. Let’s hope the organization isn’t this stupid and/or cheap.
yep
November 1st, 2012
5:00 pm
Prado should get a special gold glove for playing so different positions.
Mark (another one)
November 1st, 2012
5:33 pm
I love these types of articles. I looked at the fangraphs site and noticed that Prado has a top 5 uZR/150 rating while playing third. Interestingly three Dodgers are at the top followed by Wright and Prado. Franciso is ranked 8th (I filtered out anyone with less than 150 innings at the position).
I’m new to these sites but it appears to back the idea that Prado can handle the defensive work at third, and we have a good first, third backup in Francisco. My worries for next season are CF and LF. Uggla needs to settle down and revert to his Marlin production level. McCann has to get well and we need to resign Ross.
Bourn in CF has been great but I don’t see the Braves paying the price, nor do I think they should. I think Wren can find other options and he has some pieces to trade. Not all acquisitions need to be through free agency but trades are harder to predict. I think Wren has done a great job while in Atlanta and I trust he and his staff are hard at work.
I don’t think Wren intends that Schafer is the CF of the future but it doesn’t hurt to take a look. The move I’m wondering about is Boscan. With Ross unsigned and McCann recovering, I thought he might be on our opening day roster. I wonder if it is an indicator that the Braves are about to make a move that requires some 40 man space?
Greg
November 1st, 2012
6:56 pm
MB, perhaps you simply misstated, but your
“31.6 percent of Freeman’s swings came at pitches off the plate”, is a measure of actual swings at pitches that otherwise might have been called “balls”, vs. actual swings at pitches that might otherwise have been called “strikes”. This is indicative of how often Freeman’s swings were at potential “balls”. Presumably, 68.4% of Freeman’s swings were at potential “strikes”.
“Prado swung at 26.8 percent of pitches off the strike zone”, is a measure of actual swings at pitches that otherwise might have been called “balls”, vs. non-swings at pitches that WERE called “balls”. This is indicative of what was Prado’s response when thrown a pitch that potentially could have been called a “ball”.
I’m sure I could visit FanGraphs and obtain apples to apples relationships, but I’m not sure even then I would have an insight into which was the more selective hitter. Perhaps more meaningful would be what is the outcome when a swing is made. And certainly, “walks” would have to enter into the equation. But wait, we already have something that measures all that – OPS.
Chipper had an OPS of .832, while Prado and Freeman each had .796. Who could argue that Chipper was not the most selective hitter? And even at 40!
Hillbilly D
November 1st, 2012
8:02 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01-2pNCZiNk
Dum-Bass
November 2nd, 2012
12:19 am
Rick, since you are so sure the Braves made the playoffs, what will the banner say they hang in the outfield, huh? huh? Bet there won’t be one. Maybe you can answer this question also. What was it they celebrated about a week early? I’m confused! They DID NOT make the playoffs, but if it appeases you to think that go right ahead, dreamer! (FYI, that was a ONE GAME PLAY-IN to see who made the P/O’s)
Steve
November 2nd, 2012
12:34 am
Rick, the League Average is sullied by players who have no business playing at third base. Part time guys and what not. Let’s put it this way, out of 14 ‘qualifiers’ at the position, Martin’s fielding percentage would put him at 7th last year. Out of 12 qualifiers in 2011, he would have finished 6th. That is Average to me. I don’t count non-qualifiers as they are typically injury prone guys with limitations or guys that are part-time fill-ins at the position and should not be considered major league starters.
RF is a stat that has been downplayed in recent years because players on teams with ‘pitch to contact’ pitchers will ALWAYS fare better. There are far better stats to judge range. That being said, I will not and did not knock his RF. Even then amongst true full-time players at the position his RF is average.
So ask yourself. Would you rather have an average hitting, and based on your logic maybe slightly better than average 3B, or would you rather have a Gold Glove LF with offensive production better than almost any LF in the NL last year?
To me, Prado is an absolute All-Star in left for all but the non-biased voter and that is hard to find for cheap.
Steve
November 2nd, 2012
12:39 am
Also if you want to expand out your RF to the newer stat that people use for it, his total zone fielding of runs saved above average is: LF – 17, 3b – 1. His averages are 10 per year and 1 per year respectively.
Again, 3B is roughly average while he is in elite status in LF. Just saying, Prado is flat out more valuable to the Braves in LF than he is at third.
Steve
November 2nd, 2012
1:01 am
I will get to the bottom of it though. If the Braves can get a decent hitting, good glove in LF, then I will not have a problem with moving Prado. Martin is that good and I will cheer for him at any position. There is far more depth in FA for LF than 3B, so that weighs in the favor of putting Prado at third.
If we are set on moving Prado to third I would rather see the Braves give Pastornicky a shot in LF than go after most of those aging vets, but I think he should be groomed as our 2B of the future and let Uggla move to third and leave Prado in LF personally. Uggla has a better 3B skillset than 2B anyway, and seeing a future DP tandem of Andrelton and TP in the middle pleases me. It also lessens the chance of Wren adding some free-swinging knucklehead in free agency that is coming off a career year and will likely plummet to earth (JoshW .. I point at you), or a had a career year by 14 million miles with my locker next to a steroid user ‘but I didn’t see or take nothin’ OF (fingers moves to AngelP).
I do wonder what the Yanks will do with Chavez, as he would be a good fit at third. If they can’t move ARod will they re-up Chavez or let him walk?
Say what?
November 2nd, 2012
8:12 am
WRONG! Sorry, Mr. Bradley But, If they should have wone, they would have won. This is not a voted award, it IS based on verifiable statistical performance results.
Larvell Blanks
November 2nd, 2012
9:07 am
“It seems fair to suggest that a batter who demonstrates the greatest difference between his O-Swing and Z-Swing tendencies would be the league’s Most Selective Hitter.”
What a bizarre statement. Freeman swings at more pitches in the strike zone than Prado, and also swings at more pitches out of the strike zone. “Swings at more stuff, no matter where it is” seems like a pretty poor definition of “selective” to me. The only reason Freeman’s Z-O difference is greater than Prado’s is that his Z is so high, meaning he hardly ever takes a pitch that’s anywhere in the strike zone — once again, a pretty poor yardstick for measuring “selectiveness.”
Rick
November 2nd, 2012
9:36 am
Dum-Bass, the WC game was a play off game. Not a 163rd game of the season, and it did not affect regular season stats. Whether you agree with that or not, that is how MLB labeled it. This is simple fact and what the Braves choose to do regarding a flag does not really matter.
Steve, I really don’t care which position Prado plays. I just don’t see how anyone could call him a below average 3B.
LawDawg
November 2nd, 2012
9:41 am
WAR is the most meaningless, BS statistic. I am shocked that anyone pays attention to it.
Bobo is Not the Problem
November 2nd, 2012
10:11 am
Fans analyze to paralysis ridiculous baseball stats. There’s just not much else to do to make the game interesting.
Further, the statistic “percentage of swings at pitches off the plate” does NOT answer the question “which Brave was more likely to swing at balls out of the strike zone.”
Rather, you need the statistic “percentage of balls off the plate that were swung at.”
It’s amazing that folks who have nothing better to do than dissect stats under a microscope still don’t know how to pull the right stats to answer their questions.
Bobo is Not the Problem
November 2nd, 2012
10:15 am
That was really “test” after my first post didn’t go through. Didn’t think that one would either. Oh well. :O
Bobo is Not the Problem
November 2nd, 2012
10:18 am
So my point was that the statistic “percent of player’s swings that came at pitches off the plate” does not answer the question “which player is more likely to swing at balls out of the strike zone.”
Rather, you need the actual statistic, “percentage of times the player swung at pitches out of the strike zone.”
This seems obvious but somehow Bradley missed it.
Baseball is the only sport where we spent mindnumbing hours dissecting minute stats to make up for the fact that the game is otherwise hopelessly boring.
Beeg Boy
November 2nd, 2012
12:28 pm
Apologize if already asked, Mark, but what do the sabermetrics reveal about the LaRoche vs. Freeman gold glove at 1st base?
Mark Bradley
November 2nd, 2012
12:57 pm
That Freeman was better, Beeg Boy.
AGTFan
November 2nd, 2012
1:03 pm
I’m curious about the numbers for Freeman.
blue
November 2nd, 2012
1:54 pm
Don’t know how Freeman isn’t getting some golden glove nods…guy is tremendous!
Born2Buzz
November 2nd, 2012
2:13 pm
Best fielding team in the majors, and they were bounced after making 3 errors in the play-in game. I guess gold gloves don’t count for much.
And RIP I-285 Perez.
TIM BUCK
November 2nd, 2012
3:39 pm
saber is on it!
joe Bling
November 2nd, 2012
4:46 pm
Thank you, Rick, for bringing some rationality to this discussion. I have just now read through this article and all of the comments, and some of it is just mind-bending. First of all, as you note, the first point of MB’s article is ridiculous. How can any sabermetrician argue that taking strikes correlates inversely to selectivity? The most selective, and often the best, hitters in baseball know precisely how to take strikes and work pitchers so that they can then swing at the strike(s) that they want to swing at. The sabermetrician’s argument assumes that all strikes are the same – which they most definitely are not.
As for Prado, there’s no doubt he is a more than competent left-fielder. Again, I don’t know how much stock I put into stats like the one MB throws out, but he’s clearly just a heck of a baseball player who is going to excel no matter where you put him. That said, if you have watched him long enough, it seems pretty evident to me that there are two positions, 2B and 3B, where he seems most comfortable. I don’t care about his fielding percentage at third last year – that’s based on a relative few games at the position after coming in from the outfield. It’s irrelevant. Give him a spring training and full season at third and he will prove to be one of the top third basemen in all of baseball, I have no doubt.
As for left, Constanza would be a good choice. Based on the year he had last year, it would seem that he is ready. Those who argue he is not an everyday player should reconsider. No one starts out an everyday player ready to go 162 games. That’s very rare. Look at Jason Heyward and how long it has taken him to adapt to the grueling, relentless physical pounding of the MLB regular season. Constanza has a much better idea now of how to manage himself over 162 games. His speed is a huge asset, and he brings an energy level this team sorely needs. With Bourn leaving, we are going to have to get speed from somewhere – it’s an essential element of successful lineups. Plus, Constanza can be a pretty good situational hitter and table-setter. I like him a lot, and think he deserves a serious look for our everyday left fielder.
Center field is where the GM will have to earn his money. The free agent options are thin, and surely the competition for Pagan will price him out of the Braves’ league. Instead, I expect we are going to see some of our excess young pitching finally traded off. We’ve been saving it for this moment, so I expect to see Tehran or Delgado or one or more of the other young arms sent somewhere for a legitimate center fielder – hopefully a solid fielder with a big bat – but that’s going to cost us. Such is the price of success.
abby normal
November 2nd, 2012
5:12 pm
Bradley….I printed this article so I can re-read it just before I turn the lights out. It’s sure to put me to sleep…again. I like baseball but the numbers and useless stats just drive me crazy.
JD
November 6th, 2012
1:46 pm
With the injury to Votto, Freeman was without a doubt the best fielding 1B in ‘12. Giving the award to LaRoche now makes the GG an award akin to a “Participant” trophy in youth soccer. I can still see Adam getting distracted by something shiny and wandering away from the bag during his days with the Braves.