Not many are picking Georgia over Florida. I am, though
This isn’t exactly a revelation, given that I made the prediction nearly five months ago, but here, for late tuners-in, it is: I like Georgia over Florida. Believe it or not, I’m not alone.
The many men of Scouts Inc. — Todd McShay, Steve Muench and Kevin Weidl – have declared on ESPN Insider (link requires registration) that the Bulldogs will beat the Gators 26-23. Their reasoning, conveniently enough, dovetails with what I’m now thinking. Back in May, I was thinking Georgia would simply be the better team. It hasn’t been to date, which doesn’t mean it can’t be Saturday.
From the Scouts Inc. preview:
Signs can’t always be trusted, especially in rivalry games. So don’t be surprised when Georgia turns in its most emotionally charged effort of the year. For 60 minutes, all the elite individual talent on Georgia’s defense will work together as a unit, and it will be enough to hand the Gators their first loss of the season.
I just watched Georgia barely beat one of the worst Kentucky teams in my memory. (And I’m a Kentucky grad, and I have a long memory.) I also caught a goodly portion of the Gators’ thrashing of South Carolina. If last Saturday is the measure, the Bulldogs don’t have a chance. But no two games, I’ve learned over my now-lengthy life, are alike. Just because the Gamecocks kept giving Florida the ball doesn’t mean Georgia will.
Florida scored 21 first-half points against South Carolina while gaining 29 yards. The Gators’ three touchdown drives spanned a total of 32 yards. The Gamecocks fumbled a punt and a kickoff return, and the game was gone. If Georgia does the same, the Bulldogs could well lose by 33 points, too. But what if they don’t do the same?
Florida is seventh nationally in total defense. Georgia is 47th. That’s a big spread, but not as big as this: Georgia is 18th in total offense to Florida’s 100th. What if the Bulldogs hold the ball — which won’t be easy; the Gators are ninth-best in turnover margin — and make Florida drive 70 yards to score? (For the record, Florida’s 44 points against South Carolina came on a day when the Gators managed 183 yards.) What if the Gators, whose 114th-ranked passing offense sits three spots below Georgia Tech’s, fall behind and have to throw?
There’s no question Georgia’s defense has underperformed. That doesn’t mean this unit is without talent. These are mostly the same defenders who enabled Georgia to finish fifth nationally in total defense last season. They’re capable of a big game in a big setting.
Yes, I’ve thought as much before about Georgia, often in a game involving Florida, and been wrong more times than right. But the dynamics of this installment have changed so quickly that the Bulldogs, who were the preseason pick to rule the SEC East, will arrive being given little chance to win by most observers, many Bulldog fans among them. That’s not the worst place to be. Coaches love it when they’ve got a good team that’s being utterly dismissed.
Has Florida been impressive? Absolutely. Have the Gators had the better season? They have by far. But LSU had a better 2011 season than Alabama — heck, LSU even beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa — and that mattered not one whit when the two met again in the BCS title game.
If Georgia can win Saturday, it will override the memory of the bitter loss at South Carolina and position itself to play again for the SEC championship. So far we’ve seen only snippets, but I’m convinced there’s a complete game in these Bulldogs. I’m encouraged to know someone else agrees..
Further reading: Why this is a big game for Georgia — but an even bigger one for Mark Richt.
By Mark Bradley
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503 comments Add your comment
Gator Nation
October 24th, 2012
12:07 pm
I’m a life long Gator and I would take Georgia +6.5 all day long. I think Georgia has a good chance to win out-right. I will be shocked if its a blow out either way unless one of the teams falls off the deep end with turnovers.
GO GATORS!
Cletusdawg
October 24th, 2012
12:08 pm
I’m torn in two directions. Win and get whored in the SECCG or get beat badly by UF and get Richt pushed out the door a bit further? I will no longer drink the CMR koolaid and believe ge can motivate our young men to play to and beyond their athletic potential. UGA will need an effort like they showed against Auburn last year to have a chance in this game. Richt has proven he cannot coach nor motivate the Dawgs to play at that level. Prepare for disappointment………I fear.
RxDawg
October 24th, 2012
12:13 pm
Thanks for trying to instill some confidence Mark. But the bottom line is their line will beat our line. And that goes both ways.
USC True To Thee
October 24th, 2012
12:15 pm
Don’t let your Georgia heart lead you wrong. We dominated uga and fl crushed us. Just a comparison. Florida is the dream team of the East this year and will take uga this weekend and the East. My Gamecocks will place 2nd. We had an unfortunate week of sickness and injuries and not good timing. We did not show up against florida and so be it. It will be interesting to see how fl matches up with bama. Uga should not earn the East win b/c of pansy schedule. Schedule difficulty should figure into the standings. Florida will earn it. Anyone but uga or Clemson…go Cocks!
KingGator
October 24th, 2012
12:16 pm
Don’t think this game will be a blow out either way. Will be close, and team that makes least # of mistakes wins. Gators look good on paper, but Dawgs have plenty of talent and potential to pull an upset. Gator D will shut down run, and force Murray to throw. Question is, does he have success or get picked? Gator O will pound like Herschel used to do, so nothing fancy, but will keep gator D fresh.
Snake Doc
October 24th, 2012
12:17 pm
Bradley is the same bonehead who told us all that the CEO was the answer to Florida’s dominance over UGA. Bradley equated the CEO to the evil genius.
Bradley is 99.9% wrong 99.9 % of the time.
Bradley can’t handle the truth and Bradley is a coward for blocking my posts.
$Dog
October 24th, 2012
12:33 pm
Mark this down—the Dogs will shock the world and pull the upset over florida, which is overrated. The Dog D will shut down the fla offense, get some sacks on Driskel and pick off 2 INTs! Jarvis will be in the fla backfield all day!!! Dogs 29 fla 19! Upset special!
Devil's in the Dawg
October 24th, 2012
12:37 pm
I don’t partake, Mr. Bradley, but could you maybe tell us where you got your weed?
RunDog
October 24th, 2012
12:39 pm
If Ga loses this game, McGarity needs to demand that the game be moved to Athens every other year when Ga is the home team. Fla has way too many advantages playing an hour from Gainesville and Ga has to travel a lot farther. That’s why fla wins most of the time—I’m tired of fla having all the advantages.
shine
October 24th, 2012
12:40 pm
Considering loser Richt’s pathetic record againt ranked teams and the doggy’s pampered schedule and ranking you kno they gonna get spanked. We wont say we told yall so when we tried to get Muschamp as a replacement for glamour boy for UGA head coach.
Florida 31-17
GB's Hamburgers
October 24th, 2012
12:50 pm
That’s the thing aboit UGA football. Because the athletes are there to be a top tier team, we all expect them to play that way. But they play much more predictably than our hopes are. So when we pull ourselves away from the cool-aid and face the facts, we get pretty accurate at predicting the outcome. It’s a Fla. win. The defense will be out coached by their Boise State offensive coordinator, The offense will be out coached by Muschamp. And their team will play harder to win. So there you go.
Paul Rhoton
October 24th, 2012
12:53 pm
The Bulldogs don’t have a defense. They will not beat the Gators. Fla 34 – Ga 14.
Ed
October 24th, 2012
12:54 pm
I’d love to believe that you are correct, Mark. But beating Florida will require blocking and tackling, our biggest areas of weakness.
Ed
October 24th, 2012
12:58 pm
And to answer the question raised by the video caption…no, we are not being overlooked. We got waxed by the only team we’ve played this year that’s worth a crap, a two-year trend. Florida is most definitely a good team this year. As much as it pains me to admit it, we’re being evaluated pretty accurately.
Georgia has to play well and get lucky, and hope that Florida plays poorly and has bad luck, to win this game. That’s asking a lot.
azdawg
October 24th, 2012
1:00 pm
Ahh, Mark. I was like you once. Had all the blind faith in the world that the dawgs could beat any team, well, excluding the Teboe days where they did win one. I lost that faith this season when they opened against Buff and the D left me wondering what the hey was going on. It continued the same excluding Vandy up to the beat down in columbia and that bewildering showing in KY. Last year in Jax, they were down 17-3 to a much weaker FL team had to ralley to win in the 2d half. This year they face a much improved FL defense and offense. If the dawgs had to struggle last season to a weaker FL what makes you believe they can beat a better FL this season? As much as I would love to see them beat FL the trend of GA folding in big games is too much to over come. I doubt the D will do much better vs FL then it has against those teams its already played. Any coach that has to continually wait until the 2d half to fix a leaky D should not be coaching in the SEC. Dawgs will continue their ways of giving up chunks of yards on the ground and thru the air. If by some miracle they slam the door on FL’s O I say where the hell have they been all year. Only way GA wins is if Murray somehow has the game of his life. No T/O’s and the OL can withstand FL’s rush and keep them on the field all day. The dawgs and their coaches this season have been the most baffeling team in the country. No one can guarantee what team is going to show up on game day. Can only hope that w/divine intervention the winner in them shows up in JAX.
Devil's in the Dawg
October 24th, 2012
1:03 pm
…I’ll bet it was some of that “Kentucky Blue Grass”. You know their motto is, “Kentucky Blue Grass – Stoned to Stupidity.” Just havin’ some fun, MB, it’s a slow day on the trading desk….
Hire Will!
October 24th, 2012
1:04 pm
McGarity needs to open the Ga bank vault and hire muschamp like he should have done 2 years ago. Pay him whatever he wants–for enough money he will come to Ga since he played here. It may take $4-$5 million / season for it will be worth it.
MS Bully
October 24th, 2012
1:09 pm
Its the other Dogs who is going to pull the upset. The Cowbells are headed to Tuscalooooser!!!!!!
Phil
October 24th, 2012
1:19 pm
Donal Trump just made his big announcement:
Florida going to give Georgia another beatdown.
Steve Thompson
October 24th, 2012
1:27 pm
Total yards on offense doesn’t mean much to me, because it’s a symptom stat. It’s a result of field position which is usually a function of turnovers and the kicking game. One statistic that deserves to be kept is “Yards per Point.” Florida’s 44 points off of only 183 yards should be a point of strength, not something negative. I commend them.
Strat Cat Dawg
October 24th, 2012
1:34 pm
We’re all fools- some of us just know we’re fools. Who knows which Georgia team is going to show up? A win turns the whole thing back around to where it was before the SC game except the hard ones will be behind us. The streak was ended last year, so the Dawgs can play angry instead of anxious. Let’s hope Mark turns out to be a wise fool this time around.
Pat
October 24th, 2012
1:35 pm
Donald Trump just announced that Aaron Murray was really born in England, not Florida, based on the derivation and origns of his last name!!!
Suweet
October 24th, 2012
1:41 pm
The Dogs have NFL talent as usual, but they do not play as a team. When will the dogs learn that recruiting selfish, conceded NFL-caliber talent isn’t what it takes to compete with FL, Alabama, etc? With the dogs, the parts are always much more impressive than the whole.
Mr. Hankey
October 24th, 2012
1:44 pm
Dum-Bass: Good name for yourself. Silly waste of time blog. Sophmoric to say the least. Going for a checku with my cardiologist before Sat for a tune-up. This game could be well over by 2nd quarter start, a la Sc, of it could go down to the wire like unfortunately KY. Don’t see GA pulling a SC on FL and putting it away before half time. Terrified but hopefull Murray will not have one of his characteric inopportune turnovers and what’s the deal with extra points. I’m with the guy above who said just go for 2 pts. Didn’t that guy hit a 50 plus yarder earlier this season? Glad Sean Williams called out the defense. The first drive again GA by Ky may HAVE BEEN THE WORST drive I’ve witnessed in 30 plus years and that’s including when Vandy beat up for homcoming during the Ray Goof era. Where’s jon jenkins? Oh, yeah, KFC. Where’s Cornelius Washington? Haven’t heard his name literally all season. Is that even possible? Surely he must have bumped into a runner by accident somewhere along the way. And what the heck happened to Brando Smith? Now he’s riding pine. I think I smell gonja on his breath. Oh, well, “nuf sed for right now. See you in the intensive care unit after the game or rehab Monday if the dogs and Falcons win out. But that’s another story for another time. In the immortal words of Corrine Brown, who I think should be honorary capt. for FL, “Go Gayda!”
Flat Tire On I-95 in Jacksonville
October 24th, 2012
1:44 pm
Whether we beat FL or not it wont change my mind about the current coaching staff and that is they are only good for 9-10 wins against cupcakes that are either down or FCS level opponents
They cant win big games
Big Donnie
October 24th, 2012
1:52 pm
Mark, you forgot one thing: this is a ‘big game’ — and Georgia does not win ‘big games.’
Look for some poor tackling and a turnover that breaks our back in the 4th qtr.
Florida 31
UGA 20
DwayneL
October 24th, 2012
1:53 pm
No way UGA beats Florida! I predict just as big a smackdown as the one South Carolina inflicted, maybe more!
Suweet
October 24th, 2012
1:59 pm
Unfortunately, I agree with Dwayne. GA will be behind the 8-ball by half time… probably will have had a bunch of penalties and a turn over that hands FL at least 7 points… I have seen this movie too many times to believe it won’t happen yet again.
SEC Headlines 10/24/2012 – Arkansas – Razorbacks News
October 24th, 2012
2:06 pm
[...] 15. Mark Bradley: “So far we’ve seen only snippets, but I’m convinced there’s a complete game in these Bulldogs.” [...]
old dog
October 24th, 2012
2:10 pm
@G.B.’s Hamburgers,
You are right about the talent except for that up-front……we do not have SEC talent on the o-line. And, it will be blatantly obvious on Saturday. If we win, we will either steal it or have turnovers or something. It will NOT be in the trenches. Ain’t got the hosses, my man!
World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party
October 24th, 2012
2:26 pm
The esteemed professional Mark Bradley got this one right,
Georgia gets a victory in Jacksonville.
TallaDawg
October 24th, 2012
2:30 pm
This game this year is more like 1997 from a comparative talent and success basis. (That is if you want to pick a year in which UGa won.)
DawgNole
October 24th, 2012
2:30 pm
Roll Tide with PRIDE!!!
October 23rd, 2012
8:11 pm
Florida – Urban quickly placed UGA ahead of Richts program and made Richts his personal bit*h!
_____________________
So Urban placed UGA ahead of Richt’s program? Huh???
I’d ask you to explain, but even you probably don’t know what you mean.
World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party
October 24th, 2012
2:31 pm
Dawgs make it two in a row.
DawgNole
October 24th, 2012
2:41 pm
We (did) Run The East
October 23rd, 2012
8:15 pm
Adjusted my screen name to more accurately reflect the current status of SC in the SEC East. Maybe lady luck will turn our way before East is decided. Just beat TN and Arky!
__________________
At least you showed up here after your team crapped its pants the past two weeks–and with a sense of humor at that. That’s a lot more than can be said about most of your fellow fans, who crowed insufferably and repeatedly after the win over UGA–and who of course are nowhere to be found now.
Ron
October 24th, 2012
2:43 pm
Mark – Care to put some $ on your prediction. I’ll give you the Dawgs and 6 points and if you lose you have to write a colum asking for Richt to be fired.
King Gators
October 24th, 2012
2:45 pm
Kiss of Death!! Nice job Mark- Gators going away in an easy victory! Go Gators!
King Gators
October 24th, 2012
2:46 pm
UF 31
UGA 13
—–
Mark Bradley – secretly happy he was wrong
sj
October 24th, 2012
2:52 pm
If we play Fl 10 times we will win 3 of them….guess that’s why we play the games
gene chizik
October 24th, 2012
2:53 pm
At least you’re not me………
Gator Nation
October 24th, 2012
3:11 pm
ATTENTION GEORGIA FANS WHO WANT THE WLOCP MOVED:
Please do not attempt to blame the location of The Game for Georgia’s RECENT losing record. Both teams are in Jacksonville by Thursday Night or Friday morning. There is no time zone change, no jet lag (the flight is shorter than the bus ride), the stadium is split 50/50. Prior to 1990 Georgia owned Florida in the exact same location. Stop the whining about moving the game, it is beneath you. Put on your big boy underwear and go down to the coast enjoy the weather, golf, cocktails and the absolute best college football venue/game there is.
Go Gators!
Jason Burngadner
October 24th, 2012
3:20 pm
Georgia is going to blow away Florida. I guarentee it.
Georgia 47
Florida 0 F
Bank on it.
Stay thirsty my friends.
RIffRaff
October 24th, 2012
3:22 pm
Comes down to which coach has more energy, emotion and desire to win. We are in doggie-doo.
Jason Burngadner
October 24th, 2012
3:24 pm
There is NO WAY that Georgia will lose this game. Everything works too the good of Georgia.
Miss State will beat Alabama this weekend.
BCS National Championship will be…………………………..Georgia VS. Oregon
Bank on it.
Phil Collins
October 24th, 2012
3:26 pm
I can feel it coming in the air tonight……..oh lawd. I been waiting for this moment all my life….oh lawd…..oh lawd.
UGA 47
FL 0
Flat Tire On I-95 in Jacksonville
October 24th, 2012
3:27 pm
Jason Burngadner
Good to see a gallon of kool-aid hasnt got you thirsty no more
sj
October 24th, 2012
3:43 pm
It’s good to see Jason’s optimism….He also thinks Ron Paul will win the election
Flat Tire On I-95 in Jacksonville
October 24th, 2012
3:58 pm
I have my Endzone Dancing shoes on
I just finished off some Kryptonite Kool-aid
Ive just read Energy Vampires
I had another FUN Practice
I finished the drill
The car commercial just wrapped up
I just changed my Uniform
Now its time for the DREAM TEAM 1 and 2 to go out and………………..
Phil
October 24th, 2012
4:18 pm
Flat Tire,
My Dream Team is Kirby Smart and his entire new staff. Richt and Bobo can go coach Auburn,
Tennessee, Fort Valley State or whoever else needs a coach.
tbomachine
October 24th, 2012
4:31 pm
Mark, 13 safeties would be awesome!!!!!! go dawgs