Not many are picking Georgia over Florida. I am, though
This isn’t exactly a revelation, given that I made the prediction nearly five months ago, but here, for late tuners-in, it is: I like Georgia over Florida. Believe it or not, I’m not alone.
The many men of Scouts Inc. — Todd McShay, Steve Muench and Kevin Weidl – have declared on ESPN Insider (link requires registration) that the Bulldogs will beat the Gators 26-23. Their reasoning, conveniently enough, dovetails with what I’m now thinking. Back in May, I was thinking Georgia would simply be the better team. It hasn’t been to date, which doesn’t mean it can’t be Saturday.
From the Scouts Inc. preview:
Signs can’t always be trusted, especially in rivalry games. So don’t be surprised when Georgia turns in its most emotionally charged effort of the year. For 60 minutes, all the elite individual talent on Georgia’s defense will work together as a unit, and it will be enough to hand the Gators their first loss of the season.
I just watched Georgia barely beat one of the worst Kentucky teams in my memory. (And I’m a Kentucky grad, and I have a long memory.) I also caught a goodly portion of the Gators’ thrashing of South Carolina. If last Saturday is the measure, the Bulldogs don’t have a chance. But no two games, I’ve learned over my now-lengthy life, are alike. Just because the Gamecocks kept giving Florida the ball doesn’t mean Georgia will.
Florida scored 21 first-half points against South Carolina while gaining 29 yards. The Gators’ three touchdown drives spanned a total of 32 yards. The Gamecocks fumbled a punt and a kickoff return, and the game was gone. If Georgia does the same, the Bulldogs could well lose by 33 points, too. But what if they don’t do the same?
Florida is seventh nationally in total defense. Georgia is 47th. That’s a big spread, but not as big as this: Georgia is 18th in total offense to Florida’s 100th. What if the Bulldogs hold the ball — which won’t be easy; the Gators are ninth-best in turnover margin — and make Florida drive 70 yards to score? (For the record, Florida’s 44 points against South Carolina came on a day when the Gators managed 183 yards.) What if the Gators, whose 114th-ranked passing offense sits three spots below Georgia Tech’s, fall behind and have to throw?
There’s no question Georgia’s defense has underperformed. That doesn’t mean this unit is without talent. These are mostly the same defenders who enabled Georgia to finish fifth nationally in total defense last season. They’re capable of a big game in a big setting.
Yes, I’ve thought as much before about Georgia, often in a game involving Florida, and been wrong more times than right. But the dynamics of this installment have changed so quickly that the Bulldogs, who were the preseason pick to rule the SEC East, will arrive being given little chance to win by most observers, many Bulldog fans among them. That’s not the worst place to be. Coaches love it when they’ve got a good team that’s being utterly dismissed.
Has Florida been impressive? Absolutely. Have the Gators had the better season? They have by far. But LSU had a better 2011 season than Alabama — heck, LSU even beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa — and that mattered not one whit when the two met again in the BCS title game.
If Georgia can win Saturday, it will override the memory of the bitter loss at South Carolina and position itself to play again for the SEC championship. So far we’ve seen only snippets, but I’m convinced there’s a complete game in these Bulldogs. I’m encouraged to know someone else agrees..
Further reading: Why this is a big game for Georgia — but an even bigger one for Mark Richt.
By Mark Bradley
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503 comments Add your comment
gomdawg
October 24th, 2012
8:39 am
BEAST OF THE EAST , WHEN YOU PLAY TEXAS A&M THEY WHERE NOT PLAYING THAT GOOD
TENN ARE YOU CRAZY AND LSU YOU THEY HAVE NO PASSING TEAM . NOW SC IS VERY GOOD THEIR OFFENSE DOES NOT HAVE WHAT WE HAVE SIMPLE. I KNOW YOU ARE GOING TO SAY THEY BEAT US OR MAN HANDLE US I KNOW BE YOU WILL SEE WHEN THE GAME IS OVER
TN Jeff
October 24th, 2012
8:44 am
I haven’t read your article nor will I. The headline brings up images of Charlie Brown trying to kick that stinkin football. This dolt is NOT gonna be snookered by you again Lucy … I mean Mark.
Cal22
October 24th, 2012
8:44 am
I love when people use stats to make their points. Stats are the effect, not the cause. UGA Ys keep looking behind you, while teams like Bama, UF, and LSU look forward, oh, and keep winning championships.
yankeedawg
October 24th, 2012
8:51 am
Remember Florida played LSU and USC @ home I believe they would have lost 1 if not 2 of them if they played in their stadiums! Just like Carolina lost 2 away games!
Beast from the East
October 24th, 2012
8:51 am
gomdawg,
You mean the same UT team that hung 44 on UGA in Athens? Yeah, their offense sucks. Texas A&M has been putting up points on everyone they’ve played. Yeah, they suck, too. Keep drinking that Koolaid and let me know how it tastes about 8:00 this Saturday night. UGA certainly can win this game but until they beat a quality team, I won’t be picking them to do so.
Jean Shorts Torture » Albert’s Cufflinks – #HateWeek Edition
October 24th, 2012
8:59 am
[...] Quincy Carter for Heisman: I grew up with the AJC back when they had more then nine people on staff a printed more than 12 pages daily. A lot has changed since then, but not their undying love for the University of Georgia. Both Jeff Schultz and Mark Bradley are picking Georgia. [...]
Big gator
October 24th, 2012
9:02 am
Here we go again, the puppies making their year around Florida, here is the real deal, we have a coach only in his second year who have a better record then Mark R. after 10 years, who get stomp by SC.
Wow, build your season on beating Florida, Mark Bradley and Mark R. both would be fired any where in the state of Florida, beat Florida and the run the table on the soft schedule the rest of the way, no ALA, LSU once again then brag how good you are in the east and every one knows you are not, no wonder this school and state are considered loserville.
Cal22
October 24th, 2012
9:04 am
You’re wasting your breath Beast from the East. The backwoods mentality of most of these “fans” here prevents them from accepting simple logic or fact. Teams that are ahead of them in their division are only successful because they play weak teams. Teams that beat them are lucky or are given breaks. Never could they conceive that other teams respond to a disappointing year(s) (ie: UF, USCAR, and one day soon TN) and actually make off-season adjustments that are reflected in on-the-field performance, something that they are incapable of doing. Somehow this evades them as does the direct correlation, or lack thereof, between a top ten recruiting class each year and an automatic trip to the NC. But since they can prove none of their theories, they simply sit aloof and judge others or make bogus suppositions.
So here’s my theory: This year’s UGA y with Florida’s schedule would be sitting at three conference losses right now, with one more coming this weekend. And don’t get all pissy about that UGA Ys. I have no proof, but neither do you for any of your BS woulda, coulda, shouldas.
old dog
October 24th, 2012
9:04 am
The Defense has the capability….it has just not performed up to expectations. Murray can get it done. However, our Achille’s heel, the o-line, will cost us….they (unlike the d) are NOT capable. Unless we have some turnovers/big plays, we will have a time. We do not have the hosses up front to play smash-mouth, which is exactly what Florida does. I am a fan, and I hope we win. But our lack of successful recruiting on the o-line tends to show up in games like this EVERY SINGLE TIME!
gomdawg
October 24th, 2012
9:07 am
big gator , you are going down this weekend GO DAWGS
old dog
October 24th, 2012
9:08 am
The D can do it…they have just under-performed. However, our o-line is not up to the task. If we win, it will be on big-plays and/or turnovers. We lack the talent up front to play smash-mouth with Florida. Big games like this expose us every time!
fuzzybee
October 24th, 2012
9:12 am
Since Tech sucks, my only joy is Georgia losing. Go Gators.
Cal22
October 24th, 2012
9:14 am
Oh there’s another excuse, FL beat LSU and SCAR because they were at home and UGA Y lost because they were on the road. I’m sure that this weekend’s UGA Y loss will be due to the fact that JAX is closer to Gainesville than Athens. Using that logic, the loss will be much worse than 35-7, because Athens is closer to Columbia than it is to JAX. I’m sure we could figure out the exact score using Mapquest and a ratio. Well I could figure it out, not too sure about some of you.
This is great stuff! Keep it coming.
DawgGuy
October 24th, 2012
9:21 am
Bradley, where do you get this Pollyannish crap from? I love the Dawgs and hope they win, but I’m also a realist. Nothing in this team’s performance this season points to a win in Jacksonville. The team is undisciplined, unmotivated, and, for the most part, uncoached. More than likely, the game will be ugly.
Kelvin
October 24th, 2012
9:24 am
Georgia will get slaughtered on Saturday. I’m a Georgia fan, but I’m also a realist. Anyone who thinks Georgia will beat Florida is just setting themselves up for a huge disappointment. Then all the Georgia fans and alumni will be calling for Mark Richt’s head. Just look at how Georgia has played the last few years and ask yourself who have they beaten? If I’m wrong I will apologize, but when you can be objective and see things clearly you will be right more often than not. Don’t let Mark Bradley get your hopes up only to be crushed come Saturday. Georgia will lose and lose big.
Bruce Benedict
October 24th, 2012
9:28 am
MB, what have you been smoking?! Didn’t you also predict the Braves to beat St. Loius, and Ga Tech to win their division? You sir, are not objective. WE (uga) are soft,a nd Florida is not. Football games are still won in the line of scrimmage, and our lines are SOFT.
old dog
October 24th, 2012
9:32 am
@DawgGuy,
‘fraid you are right……..football is still (per Bear Bryant) “blocking and tackling!” We have not excelled at either against decent teams. It is so disheartning for us to get hopes up because we smack some lesser team around. Our D is capable…they just have not lived up to it. However, our lack of a true top-tier SEC line will be shown, as it has in EVERY BIG GAME! Murray will have to do a lot of winging it.
McDawg
October 24th, 2012
9:37 am
Im with you
Mark Bradley
October 24th, 2012
9:39 am
I didn’t pick the Braves over St. Louis. I made no pick in that game.
Wes Mantooth
October 24th, 2012
9:41 am
Mark -
You don’t really think that, do you? I understand selling newspapers and homerism, but at the expense of your credibility?
DawgGuy
October 24th, 2012
9:42 am
Speaking of Pollyannish, Chuck Dowdle is a Pollyannish douche bag. He tries to put positive words in CMR’s mouth during interviews instead of letting the coach speak what comes to mind. Bill Hartman should be the sideline reporter for the Dawgs. I have always felt that Dowdle gave Hartman the shaft at WSB-TV out of jealousy.
Dawg Tired
October 24th, 2012
9:44 am
Mark – Think about this – statistics lie – scores tell you who wins. Florida is much better coached than we are. USCe did not just hand the ball to Florida. Florida took it away from them. UGA, on the other hand, will hand the ball to an opponent – think Murray being sacked, not hard, just being sacked. What does he do, he just drops the ball. Of course, if someone actually hits him hard, the ball will defeintiely come loose. Second, why would you think our OL can block players on a very good defense when they can not block players on very bad defenses. Third, how much are you willing to bet that Murray will not have at least one pass tipped and intercepted? Fourth, our defense is down-right pitiful. Fifth, our boys are now bickering among themselves. Sixth, CMR has totally lost the respect, and therefore, control, of the team. Seventh, we commit the dumbest penalties every single game. How many false starts do you predict we’ll have Saturday. I predict “too many” beginning on the first offensive possession. Finally, contrary to what your colleague “I see nothing, I know nothing Shultz” says, I expect Florida’s OB to actually play better than our QB is this game. Driskell does not appear to be a choker.
Phil
October 24th, 2012
9:51 am
$50 here says Richt will defer to the 2nd house if we win the toss. Florida goes down the field on our pathetic defense and scores on the opening drive, our players get rattled just like the South Carolina game, the momentum is clearly with Florida and we start self imploding.
Same scenario as the South Carolina game and the blackout game against Bama in 08. You think Richt will ever learn in the these type of games you have to jump on your opponent first??
With a defense like ours, deferring to the 2nd half is the LAST thing you want to do!! Jump on them first Richt!!!!!!
Make that bet a $100, not 50. Richt is an idiot.
Phil
October 24th, 2012
9:52 am
2nd half, sorry for the typo
AntoineFord
October 24th, 2012
9:54 am
34-17 Gators and Richt is right back on the hot seat.
old dog
October 24th, 2012
9:55 am
We better try blitzkrieg….trench warfare ain’t us! UGA has a decent record every year, but it is not that simple. We beat the patsies, but lose to the good teams. Muschamp has passed us already…..laugh if you want, but Dooley will do the same given time. They realize that you gotta have Clydesdales up front…..not just in size but work-ethic. LSU, ‘Bama, S.C., Florida, and quite possibly Mississippi State have passed us, and we have the talent. Between missed assignments on the D, and a little poor tackling, an inferior o-line that has not been addressed for awhile and has been our wekest point of all I cannot for the life of me understand how we get such high rankngs.
yankeedawg
October 24th, 2012
9:59 am
Florida is winning with Urban”s players just like Richt did in his 2nd year with Donnan”s players! We won the SEC in his 2nd season as coach Florida will not!!!! And how about my Rutgers team undefeated and whipped Arkansas!
GatorBait 18-4
October 24th, 2012
10:00 am
Mark———-you must be dreaming, even if all things where even, the Gators could win with special teams alone—did you happen to catch the SC game. Florida is plus 12 in turnover UGA is 0
GatorBait 18-4
October 24th, 2012
10:03 am
yankeedawg-wrong Muschamp has run off most of Meyers players or totally converted them—nice try though
GatorBait 18-4
October 24th, 2012
10:11 am
Don’t put Richt on the hot seat, he just got a contract extension and you know he is fine fine person, a real role model for a preacher.
EV
October 24th, 2012
10:19 am
UGA has the easier schedule plain and simple.
The Ghost of Wally Butts
October 24th, 2012
10:29 am
Mark, your column, though admirable, reminds me of that good ol’ Merle Haggard song:
“..Eatin’ Rainbow Stew, with a silver spoon, underneath a sky of blue….we’ll all be drinkin’ that free bubble-up, and eatin’ that Rainbow Stew..”
What a nice positive column! How Nice of you, Mark. Maybe you could hang out with Cam “Lap-Top” Newton and spread some of your joyful optimism to that tortured soul.
Meanwhile, back in the real world….the game this Saturday should be rated “R” for graphic violence, and moved to late prime time so that young dawg fans won’t be scarred by the carnage inflicted on the dawgs by Camp Muschamp recruits.
icedawg
October 24th, 2012
10:33 am
Georgia could beat Florida if somehow the Gators have a meltdown and Georgia plays an almost perfect game. But that “ain’t” likely to happen considering the momentum the two teams have. Gators on the rise and the DAWGS floundering. Wish it wasn’t so. But historically a few strange things have happened in this game.
Hold up fellas
October 24th, 2012
10:43 am
It seems like picking UGA is now the in thing. One thing I have seen over the past few years is that we don’t live up to the hype. Especially this year. Besides Vanderbilt I haven’t seen a consistent performance. That is coaching my friends. The bickering this week with players calling others out is another example. What do you think would happen if Saban found out his players were playing safe to protect their NFL chances? I think Kentucky showed us that it isn’t the talent that wins it is the will to play hard. Put the 22 in the game that want to beat the Gators the most. Even if that means sitting half the defensive starters.
KingGator
October 24th, 2012
10:52 am
Not sure GA has lived up to its potential this season, so yes, an upset could be in the making, but very unlikely. Consistency is the hallmark of great teams, not one big win every so often. One question needs to be asked though Mr Bradley. If you had to put your life savings on one of these teams with no point spread considered, and no motivation to push your column and sell the AJC newspaper, who would it be? My guess is, you’d bet on FL!! Am I right? If not, you’d be a fool to bet on GA based on their play vs FL’s play this season.
Alphare
October 24th, 2012
10:57 am
UGA players are not paid despite a scholarship. Why would they risk their money-making future to win a few games for other people’s entertainment?
Do you care about them if they cannot make a living after their college career? I don’t blame them.
Real DAWG FAN
October 24th, 2012
10:59 am
ONLY game time will tell the tale.
observer
October 24th, 2012
11:00 am
The stats are more a reflection of who you play than who you are. It’s true UF offense stats aren’t good, but the defenses they have faced are much better than what UGA has seen. Ranked common opponent is USC. USC pretty muched stuffed both UGA and UF offense. UF has figured a way to beat 3 ranked teams. Its a very tall order for UGA to beat a ranked team based on recent and not so recent past. UGA has a shot, but on paper, logic UF should win. I don’t think in a blow out.
Loser alert
October 24th, 2012
11:04 am
@Gator Bait 18-4
How about 1-0 or 2-0 after this weekend
OR
49-40 or 50-40 after this weekend
See, you can play the”stat” game any way you want, but the bottom line is UGa owns the Gators historically and recently!!!
Pitbull
October 24th, 2012
11:13 am
Its not the first time that Georgia has gone into a game as an underdog.
Sometimes I would rather go in as the underdog and pull the upset than as the favored team an have to live up to expectations.
I remember when Georgia was not given a chance against Texas in the Cotton Bowl after the 1983 season and the Dogs went in and beat the Longhorns 10-9.
No one could believe it but the players. They never quit believing or gave up on themselves. I was proud of them for that.
Are you on crack??!!
October 24th, 2012
11:17 am
Georgia will lose and by a wide margin. The Dawgs give up far too many rush yards per game. Georgia’s rush defense averages giving up 167 yards per game. Correspondingly, Florida averages 212 yards per game rushing. Before the UGA game last week, Kentucky averaged 106 yards per game and they put up 202 yards rushing against the Dawgs defense. IMO, Bradley is way off base and the Gators win big in Jacksonville this weekend. They may not even have to pass once. If they do, the Dawgs defense gives up 200 yards passing/game. Looks like this game will be a highlight film for Jeff Driskel.
GD
October 24th, 2012
11:26 am
Are you on crack = pitbull = loser alert = alphare = king gator
all the same person trying to diss the dogs.
Columbus Dawg
October 24th, 2012
11:31 am
Pitbull, I was equally as proud after the Cotton Bowl you speak of, but wins like that have been nearly non-existent in the Richt era. Yeah, I was proud of the team after the Pat Dye man enough game with Bama, but there have been far too few knock the door down type games, and EVERY time Richt has made it to Atlanta he has backed into it. This year’s game in Jacksonville is the most important game of Richt’s football coaching career, and that goes for any games when he was involved in as an assistant at FSU.
I guess the rumors are just that about Richt walking away after the season, as he is talking about coaching kickers next year. What a joke. He has the opportunity to muzzle the critics this weekend, and I for one hopes he does, but hoping don’t mean a whole lot. Not getting my hopes up like I always have. I kind of have that same sick feeling before every big game like I did when Ray Goff was coaching in the later years of his tenure, and I hate that.
Sloppy
October 24th, 2012
11:32 am
The Real Bulldogs are playing in Tuscaloosa this weekend.
The ones in Athens/Jacksonville are interim fakes.
NYVol
October 24th, 2012
11:36 am
Now that I am done laughing at this story, I can finally comment.
Florida’s offense is oddly similar to South Carolina’s and their defense is much better than SC’s. Florida has been taking care of business just like they did against LSU (Way better than UGA) and SC (Again way better then UGA).
Will the chihuahuas of Athens be all fired up and “emotionally charged”? Sure and so will Florida. Florida knows that they punch their ticket to the SEC Championship game and a date with destiny with Alabama. Ultimately it will be the under performing defense of UGA and the bad play calling of Mike BooBoo that will end the mangy mutts.
Heck, you barely beat us and you really think you can beat Florida? Mark, it is time for you and the WalMart UGA fans to go back to rehab.
Marvin Mangrum
October 24th, 2012
11:38 am
That may be the most incredible thing I have ever read! I am reminded of” if bullfrogs had wings, then they wouldnt bump their rears when they hopped”. Yup if the Bull dawgs had wings then they might have a chance!
KingGator
October 24th, 2012
11:41 am
I’m one voice on here, not the voice of many GD. I have no hatred toward UGA, but am just trying to be as subjective as possible. I know the dawgs have alot more potential and talent than what they’ve shown this yr. I think part of that is playing a soft schedule. You gotta go through some tough games and adversity to really bond as a team, and I’m not sure the dawgs have been able to do that. The gators seem to be playing a nasty defense and steady/error-free offense, so that’s bodes well for them. But, yes, upsets happen all the time, and very likely might happen this Sat., but I’m just saying the logical pick on paper and mojo is the gators.
CORNY HULL
October 24th, 2012
11:51 am
What about the last 10 games GA has played against TOP 10 Teams…..Georgia is 1 win and 9 losses.
Check the fact-checker on that, but it wouldn’t surprise me. How many personal fouls will GA rack up on Saturday? Murray probably won’t have big stats as he will not be playing a .500 team.
Actionville
October 24th, 2012
12:02 pm
4 wins against Gators since 1990. City of EnTITLEment disappointed once again.
Gators 58
UGA 13
Actionville
October 24th, 2012
12:04 pm
ooops, Martrez just dropped another pass…wait that was Gipson…wait that was …