Not many are picking Georgia over Florida. I am, though
This isn’t exactly a revelation, given that I made the prediction nearly five months ago, but here, for late tuners-in, it is: I like Georgia over Florida. Believe it or not, I’m not alone.
The many men of Scouts Inc. — Todd McShay, Steve Muench and Kevin Weidl – have declared on ESPN Insider (link requires registration) that the Bulldogs will beat the Gators 26-23. Their reasoning, conveniently enough, dovetails with what I’m now thinking. Back in May, I was thinking Georgia would simply be the better team. It hasn’t been to date, which doesn’t mean it can’t be Saturday.
From the Scouts Inc. preview:
Signs can’t always be trusted, especially in rivalry games. So don’t be surprised when Georgia turns in its most emotionally charged effort of the year. For 60 minutes, all the elite individual talent on Georgia’s defense will work together as a unit, and it will be enough to hand the Gators their first loss of the season.
I just watched Georgia barely beat one of the worst Kentucky teams in my memory. (And I’m a Kentucky grad, and I have a long memory.) I also caught a goodly portion of the Gators’ thrashing of South Carolina. If last Saturday is the measure, the Bulldogs don’t have a chance. But no two games, I’ve learned over my now-lengthy life, are alike. Just because the Gamecocks kept giving Florida the ball doesn’t mean Georgia will.
Florida scored 21 first-half points against South Carolina while gaining 29 yards. The Gators’ three touchdown drives spanned a total of 32 yards. The Gamecocks fumbled a punt and a kickoff return, and the game was gone. If Georgia does the same, the Bulldogs could well lose by 33 points, too. But what if they don’t do the same?
Florida is seventh nationally in total defense. Georgia is 47th. That’s a big spread, but not as big as this: Georgia is 18th in total offense to Florida’s 100th. What if the Bulldogs hold the ball — which won’t be easy; the Gators are ninth-best in turnover margin — and make Florida drive 70 yards to score? (For the record, Florida’s 44 points against South Carolina came on a day when the Gators managed 183 yards.) What if the Gators, whose 114th-ranked passing offense sits three spots below Georgia Tech’s, fall behind and have to throw?
There’s no question Georgia’s defense has underperformed. That doesn’t mean this unit is without talent. These are mostly the same defenders who enabled Georgia to finish fifth nationally in total defense last season. They’re capable of a big game in a big setting.
Yes, I’ve thought as much before about Georgia, often in a game involving Florida, and been wrong more times than right. But the dynamics of this installment have changed so quickly that the Bulldogs, who were the preseason pick to rule the SEC East, will arrive being given little chance to win by most observers, many Bulldog fans among them. That’s not the worst place to be. Coaches love it when they’ve got a good team that’s being utterly dismissed.
Has Florida been impressive? Absolutely. Have the Gators had the better season? They have by far. But LSU had a better 2011 season than Alabama — heck, LSU even beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa — and that mattered not one whit when the two met again in the BCS title game.
If Georgia can win Saturday, it will override the memory of the bitter loss at South Carolina and position itself to play again for the SEC championship. So far we’ve seen only snippets, but I’m convinced there’s a complete game in these Bulldogs. I’m encouraged to know someone else agrees..
Further reading: Why this is a big game for Georgia — but an even bigger one for Mark Richt.
By Mark Bradley
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503 comments Add your comment
*{jj}*
October 23rd, 2012
11:49 pm
Dream on Mark, UF by 9. You did make some UGA fans like you more by picking UGA as favorite to win…
DogRule
October 23rd, 2012
11:54 pm
bradley knows his stuff—the Dogs will beat fla by 10 on Saturday—Murray will light up florida’s secondary, which isn’t that good. Look for the Dogs to sack driskel 4-5 times like south carolina and get 2 INTs. Dogs—roll over fla—33-23! Bet the house!!
HardTruth Here
October 23rd, 2012
11:58 pm
35-17 Dawgs win and no I’m not smoking, drinking, or creeping with the ex wife.I just got this feeling, Oh and while I tell ya’ll this take Miss State and the Points against Bama. Fly in the ointment this weekend!!
HardTruth Here
October 24th, 2012
12:02 am
Dawg Nation be careful what you ask for, MARK RICHT FOREVER with win against FLA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Caleb
October 24th, 2012
12:05 am
I think Mark Richt needs to toughen up on the team, If not he could be replaced.
MikeBoBo here
October 24th, 2012
12:09 am
I’ll call the best game of the year because I’ve got six kids and really need this job.Trying to feed eight on a high school coaches salary is tough. So my coaching will be magnificant.
Airborne Ranger
October 24th, 2012
12:13 am
I’ll whip all of you with a bayonnet and camoflauge painted face. Trust me I can.
THE Dixie Redcoat Band
October 24th, 2012
12:15 am
Nice try Mark. But, UGA has gone to JAX lots of times with the better players but they forgot to show up!
Dawg Fan
October 24th, 2012
12:15 am
Its about time for Richt to go if he doesn’t start coaching better.
Sloppy
October 24th, 2012
12:32 am
Tampa Gator
October 23rd, 2012
9:08 pm
Sloppy…..
What Gator games have you been watching lately. Florida has not been making a lot of stupid, unsportsmanlike penalties this year. Florida has two unsportsmanlike penalties called vs. SC….and it one was a phantom call vs. Jenkins on the SC QB and one was for roughing the snapper on a punt….and Morrison clearly waited the required amount of time before knocking the snapper on his arse. The ref penalized Morrison because he hit him so hard….not because he did anything illegal. Muschamp went crazy on both calls….which were bogus at best. Florida has played hard, tough, and fast this year…..but very clean this year as well. But you can think what you want.
Gator that is pure spin and you know it. The LSU game their were multiple plays where flags should have been thrown on both side for extracurricular pushing and late hits.
Your gators are also next to last in the SEC in least penalties.
1 South Carolina 8 34 266 4.3 33.3
2 Kentucky 8 34 276 4.3 34.5
3 Alabama 7 31 253 4.4 36.1
4 Mississippi State 7 30 258 4.3 36.9
5 Mississippi 7 31 264 4.4 37.7
5 Arkansas 7 34 264 4.9 37.7
7 Tennessee 7 40 295 5.7 42.1
8 Vanderbilt 7 38 296 5.4 42.3
9 Auburn 7 40 305 5.7 43.6
10 Missouri 7 41 321 5.9 45.9
11 Georgia 7 52 358 7.4 51.1
12 LSU 8 68 519 8.5 64.9
13 Florida 7 55 462 7.9 66.0
14 Texas A&M 7 53 498 7.6 71.1
Sloppy
October 24th, 2012
12:37 am
I never see a guy who is so full of bull as Tampa Gator is. He has to be a used car dealer with all the crap he spews, his post proves it. Florida should win on Saturday but their spanking comes first with FSU then with the SECCG.
Sloppy
October 24th, 2012
12:53 am
If UF cannot score more than 24 points they lose. UGA’s offense is not LSU’s offense and will spread UF out then run the ball. UGA will score 25 or more points.
Hairy Dawg
October 24th, 2012
2:13 am
This here is smart thinking and right on targets on how Dawgs is set up to ambush the sorry Gaytors. No one giving Dawgs chance cause we mulliganed SCar. But that close a month ago. Dawgs got rested and game plan to expose talents on Gaytors. Aaron Murray is best SEC QB and Dawgs have his experience to minimal turnovers while Gaytors is do to give ball away. Look for Dawgs lines to show up and dominants. And then Murray have all day to pick Gaytor secondary a part. With one two punch of winning trenches and better more experienced skill like Aaron Murray. Dawgs win easy.
HA
October 24th, 2012
2:20 am
Mark
I only came to see how many took your bait, 313 at this point. Looks like your supervisors (what a joke) need to have a talk. 313 is not a lot for the biggest game of the year. Esp seeings that you had over 2500 for the SC game.
I did not read your BS but did catch the “I like GA over FL” something about a 5 month prediction. Yeah, and you predicted SC to win by 28 to, right? With the 28 point loss most would change their FL prediction. Not you. You can’t would not make the advertisers happy to go with the obvious and have less than 100 show up, would it.
You’re an idiot, but not as much as the 313 that took your bait.
Alpharetta Dave
October 24th, 2012
4:54 am
Wow, Mark! I’m not sure if your prediction is really gutsy or just plain stupid, but I do hope you’re right. Guess we’ll find out Saturday.
Stinger 2
October 24th, 2012
5:21 am
UGA 24 UF 10. The Gators are not as good as they are rated. UGA is better on defense than they have played.
Columbus
October 24th, 2012
5:32 am
I give the dogs a much better chance now than I did a few days ago. Bradley, when it comes to picking offense over defense, the wise man will pick the team with the best defense. Florida. Forget the team with the best offense. Why do I give UGA a better chance now at winning the game…because of the inspiring words of Shawn Williams firing the defense UP!
Bradley, Im starting to like you a little bit…because you arent hatin on the Dawgs as much as in the past really. Schultz is still hatin big time..You may be right on this one but without expecting that much better defensive effort, pick the team with the much better playing defense! We WILL see the BES of the defense this week. Lets believe it will be what it was thought it would be….
What?
October 24th, 2012
5:48 am
Man, I’m sorry but i can’t drink the kool aid with you guys. i know the feeling when you get excited and watch a one sided beat down. i’ll wait till halftime to give you my take. but i love the dawgs and i am a dawg but we all know we don’t show up in big games and we play soft!!!!!!! SSSSSOOOOFFFFFTTTTT
JB Wengie
October 24th, 2012
6:40 am
Florida-63
Georgia-10
SEC: Jarvis Jones’ return, Dooley’s buyout, Brent Pease | John Clay's Sidelines
October 24th, 2012
6:42 am
[...] Mark Bradley picks Georgia to upset the Gators. [...]
FLA DAWG
October 24th, 2012
6:48 am
Mark,
The error in your logic is that our offense rolled up yardage and numbers against nobody teams.
UF’s D will shutdown our run and put so much pressure on Murray that the passing game will be non productive as well.
These Dawgs absolutely stink. This week began the In-Fighting which always happens when a team really begins to fall apart.
I picked UF to beat us by 28. After this In-Fighting I now pick UF by 35.
Buzz2011
October 24th, 2012
6:54 am
No surprise with Bradley pick.. He would pick Dogs if they played the Green Bay Packers. Guess he did’nt see the game in Columbia,SC. Dogs loe and lose big…
Cobb Dawg
October 24th, 2012
6:58 am
I see no evidence at all that indicates a UGA win. I was at the KY game and the players all looked like clones of CMR coming off the field (no passion). Gator’s roll 43-10. And that hurts to say.
GT
October 24th, 2012
7:06 am
Georgia has a history under Richt of first screwing their season up and then going out and screwing some other team’s life up. Once the pressure is off they play like the team advertised in the first place. This game is a pressure cooker. They will be more out of control than any game this year.
The one factor Florida beat both top ranked teams at home. Jacksonville is not home despite the state it is being played in. Florida was not very good last year and suddenly is a world beater. Like South Carolina, the question is can they travel. I think the Florida I have seen this year will win, but I got a feeling there is another Florida underneath a bad one we haven’t seen yet and they are due. Can a fried up Bulldawg team of thugs take advantage of it.
26-23 In Your Dreams
October 24th, 2012
7:15 am
This column reminds me of a quote from Bear Bryant, when asked for $10.00 to help bury a sports writer, he pull out a $20 and said, “here bury two of them”
I’ve seen rationalizations in my time, but this takes the cake. I’ll give you Ga’s defense playing it’s best game of the year. Even then that can’t match SC or LSU defense, if you think it can, you’re dreaming. The Gators offensive line are beasts and destroyed LSU and SC will——–never seen such dominance.
26-23 In Your Dreams
October 24th, 2012
7:22 am
Point number two, if you recall last defense was the best Ga has had in years, but they were destroyed by Boise State’s off coordinator——————–have you forgotten he is now the Gator off coordinator and he now has bigger and faster players to confuse Grantham with. Pease going against Grantham is a hugh mismatch.
Go Tech
October 24th, 2012
7:29 am
I think the gators will feast on dog meat and dog bones this weekend.
A healthy dose of reality
October 24th, 2012
7:30 am
Florida 63, Georgia 10
Phil
October 24th, 2012
7:34 am
Bradley,
You have lost your mind. You’re looking at it on paper, not reality. The reality is we can’t beat a ranked opponent, we don’t show up in big games. Richt cannot get them ready to play in games of this magnitude. It’s going to be an ugly beatdown, just like the South Carolina game.
TechRon
October 24th, 2012
7:36 am
A UGA win vs. Florida is a possibility, but so unlikely.
Mr. Stein, UGA seems to save their best game for Tech for several reasons: They are always a lot better than Tech. They have no fear of Tech at all, because recent history shows that the game almost always goes their way. Tech, on the other hand, always chokes against UGA. This is because recent history shows that if they get close, something will always happen to swing the game in UGAs favor. The players on the field seem to know this and they just go through the motions. There is seldom an attitude that they feel they can win. Having the best players wins for you 80% of the time. The rest of it is attitude and emotion.
Homer
October 24th, 2012
7:45 am
Wow, imagine that the AJC is picking Ga. The constant Homerism of both Bradley and the other guy are just amazing. There are no real sports reporters in this city.
Old Dog Class of 80
October 24th, 2012
7:49 am
‘“So many” calling for Richt’s head? No one is.’
You are wrong about that. There are three classes of people out there. Those of us who want to see Richt demoted or fired and don’t care who replaces him – we are tired of mediocre football – it is no fun. There is a second group who realize that Richt is a mediocre coach and wish we could change but resist calling for his outer because “who else would be better.” Then there are the Richt-o-philes who love Richt and think that how you coach is much better than if you win or lose, and they are fine with these 10-win seasons and no NC, as long as they have a nice, Christian man coaching the team.
There are quite a few of the first category.
Dreamz
October 24th, 2012
7:50 am
What happened to the Dream Team?
Whiskey Breath
October 24th, 2012
7:52 am
Mark, I guess it is real difficult being consistent after you’re pre season predictions.
Maybe if you didn’t try so hard to suck up to the Ga crowd you wouldn’t be in
a position where nobody respects your predictions. But I guess who cares ,
right?
Alabama is right next door, right? Start predicting them and you might be a little more accurate.
Now you just look like a joke.
Old Dog Class of 80
October 24th, 2012
7:53 am
And no, I do not go under “Tampa Dawg” or any other neme. I used to use Old Dog but there were too many of us with that same handle. I am an alumnus of UGA (Class of 1980, obviously) and my daughter graduated from UGA last year. I have suffered through the last five years of football, most of which was when my daughter attended Georgia. I have NOT been happy with Richt’s coaching.
Huh?
October 24th, 2012
8:01 am
Interestingly enough, the Gainesville paper has an article about how ” the dogs easy schedule” has helped them thus far……Florida isn’t gong to be easy….
gomdawg
October 24th, 2012
8:06 am
FLORIDA HAS NOT FACED A OFFENSE LIKE GEORGIA ALL YEAR . AND OUR DEFENCE HAS TO SHOW UP ONE GAME THIS YEAR MAYBE THIS IS THE GAME . GO DAWGS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
65 ship players and not on probation, who can explain this??
October 24th, 2012
8:10 am
MARK!!!!! WE DONT HAVE AN 0-LINE AND AM DOES NOT HAVE A REAL O-CORD, JUST LOOK AT OUR BIG GAMES THE LAST 3 YEARS.. COM’ON MAN.
FLA Alum
October 24th, 2012
8:13 am
Interesting analysis. Florida has not played consistently this year and does have problems. However I think the term “Pollyanna” comes to mind. Am not sure why but it comes to mind.
wins-by-a-link
October 24th, 2012
8:13 am
This game will hinge on the Georgia defense, If the defense shows up Georgia can easily win this game, Turnovers were the downfall of the Cocks and so far Georgia is on the plus side for turnovers, If Murray can deliver another performance like the one against Kentucky the Dogs should be able to play with the Gators
Whiskey Breath
October 24th, 2012
8:14 am
You Ga people need to tell us Alabama people again. You know about winning college football
and why we need to listen to you. You’re experts on choking an how you can figure out how to
lose every game of any consequence for the last 4 years. I guess failing to win anything makes you
you an authority.
Beast from the East
October 24th, 2012
8:19 am
“FLORIDA HAS NOT FACED A OFFENSE LIKE GEORGIA ALL YEAR . AND OUR DEFENCE HAS TO SHOW UP ONE GAME THIS YEAR MAYBE THIS IS THE GAME . GO DAWGS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”
Tennessee? Texas A&M? Both potent passing teams.
LSU? SC? Both potent rushing teams.
Somehow, UF managed to beat all 4 of them. I know UGA has dominated some great opponents this year (cough, cough), but I think the Gators defense will show up and make a play or two.
atlvol55
October 24th, 2012
8:24 am
Wasn’t it just a couple of weeks ago, that UGA fans and media were saying the exact same thing…”Conner Shaw stinks…USC offense isn’t any good, they were lucky last year”….Man, people have short memories.
Isn’t UGA like 0-10 against top 10 opponents. UGA has the talent to win, but who in the world would pick them????
It has literally been YEARS since UGA has actually beaten anyone worth a crap.
I just don’t get it…
atlvol55
October 24th, 2012
8:26 am
The rumors are swirling that Dooley is done at TN. Looks like the Vols are putting together a huge package for a big name coach…Should be interesting…It might be a lot sooner than later
Beast from the East
October 24th, 2012
8:27 am
atlvol55,
What names are you hearing?
atlvol55
October 24th, 2012
8:29 am
Rumors are they are putting the full court press on Gruden and are putting a huge package to make it very hard to turn down. He started as a GA at Tennesse and his wife is a former TN cheerleader. I have no idea if he will take the package, but they are going to make it very hard to turn down
Bahama Mama
October 24th, 2012
8:31 am
Can the columnists get fired for an unreasonable opinion(s)? Time to evaluate this one.
Go Jackets
October 24th, 2012
8:32 am
Cant believe Richt let Cummings spout like he did. He needs to put the kaibasch(sp)on the tweets and the press comments by partial qualifying players.
Gary
October 24th, 2012
8:35 am
Thanks Mark… Have to loose now. Thought we had a 1% chance. You just made it 0%.
Whiskey Breath
October 24th, 2012
8:38 am
Gruden has been turning down jobs in college football forever. What makes you local yokals think
he is going to take a job down here? Not only that, he hasn’t proven he can coach college football.
Come to think of it, he would be funny at Ga. The first time he straightens you fans out,
you would say he is too rough and want to fire him. I think it would make him mad just thinking
about how sissy you all are.