Not many are picking Georgia over Florida. I am, though
This isn’t exactly a revelation, given that I made the prediction nearly five months ago, but here, for late tuners-in, it is: I like Georgia over Florida. Believe it or not, I’m not alone.
The many men of Scouts Inc. — Todd McShay, Steve Muench and Kevin Weidl – have declared on ESPN Insider (link requires registration) that the Bulldogs will beat the Gators 26-23. Their reasoning, conveniently enough, dovetails with what I’m now thinking. Back in May, I was thinking Georgia would simply be the better team. It hasn’t been to date, which doesn’t mean it can’t be Saturday.
From the Scouts Inc. preview:
Signs can’t always be trusted, especially in rivalry games. So don’t be surprised when Georgia turns in its most emotionally charged effort of the year. For 60 minutes, all the elite individual talent on Georgia’s defense will work together as a unit, and it will be enough to hand the Gators their first loss of the season.
I just watched Georgia barely beat one of the worst Kentucky teams in my memory. (And I’m a Kentucky grad, and I have a long memory.) I also caught a goodly portion of the Gators’ thrashing of South Carolina. If last Saturday is the measure, the Bulldogs don’t have a chance. But no two games, I’ve learned over my now-lengthy life, are alike. Just because the Gamecocks kept giving Florida the ball doesn’t mean Georgia will.
Florida scored 21 first-half points against South Carolina while gaining 29 yards. The Gators’ three touchdown drives spanned a total of 32 yards. The Gamecocks fumbled a punt and a kickoff return, and the game was gone. If Georgia does the same, the Bulldogs could well lose by 33 points, too. But what if they don’t do the same?
Florida is seventh nationally in total defense. Georgia is 47th. That’s a big spread, but not as big as this: Georgia is 18th in total offense to Florida’s 100th. What if the Bulldogs hold the ball — which won’t be easy; the Gators are ninth-best in turnover margin — and make Florida drive 70 yards to score? (For the record, Florida’s 44 points against South Carolina came on a day when the Gators managed 183 yards.) What if the Gators, whose 114th-ranked passing offense sits three spots below Georgia Tech’s, fall behind and have to throw?
There’s no question Georgia’s defense has underperformed. That doesn’t mean this unit is without talent. These are mostly the same defenders who enabled Georgia to finish fifth nationally in total defense last season. They’re capable of a big game in a big setting.
Yes, I’ve thought as much before about Georgia, often in a game involving Florida, and been wrong more times than right. But the dynamics of this installment have changed so quickly that the Bulldogs, who were the preseason pick to rule the SEC East, will arrive being given little chance to win by most observers, many Bulldog fans among them. That’s not the worst place to be. Coaches love it when they’ve got a good team that’s being utterly dismissed.
Has Florida been impressive? Absolutely. Have the Gators had the better season? They have by far. But LSU had a better 2011 season than Alabama — heck, LSU even beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa — and that mattered not one whit when the two met again in the BCS title game.
If Georgia can win Saturday, it will override the memory of the bitter loss at South Carolina and position itself to play again for the SEC championship. So far we’ve seen only snippets, but I’m convinced there’s a complete game in these Bulldogs. I’m encouraged to know someone else agrees..
Further reading: Why this is a big game for Georgia — but an even bigger one for Mark Richt.
By Mark Bradley
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503 comments Add your comment
JB
October 23rd, 2012
9:13 pm
Well, let me start with what we have learned from this. First, there is no random drug testing policy at the AJC. Second. I to watched both games last week. Anyone with a brain and an eye for ANY football would bet the ranch on Florida. Third. Dawgs are still coached by Richt, Bobo and Grantham. Florida could pull out a tape from 3 years ago and scheme for us, just the uniform numbers change. Fourth. Georgia has not beat a ranked team in almost 4 years. Probably no the number two team in 40. fifth. It’s Florida. The only Richt wins ( 3) have been very sub par Florida teams, with last years train wreck Gator team with NO QB closer than it looked. …..Look, this is a great read, but check back here Saturday about for major retraction. Fla 45-17
Tampa Gator
October 23rd, 2012
9:14 pm
I still find it amazing that so many of you are calling for the head of the head coach that has your team ranked #10 in the BCS……has your team playing in a game Saturday that could put your team in the SEC title game…..and therefore the possiblity of playing for the national title still. Just amazing. My God……lord help Richt and staff if the #2 ranked team in the BCS barely beats your team. He will have his house papered and….who knows what else. Jeezzzzz.
Tampa Gator
October 23rd, 2012
9:20 pm
…..and by the way……no one that works in the national media wants Florida to beat Georgia. And based on some of the calls made by the refs in the Florida vs. SC game last week……maybe there are people in other places that do not want an undefeated team headed into the SEC title game vs. Bama.
sandiegodawg
October 23rd, 2012
9:21 pm
if those winds are forecasted, I don’t think the Dawgs can win without the pass game picking up the team
will
October 23rd, 2012
9:21 pm
I sure as heck hope so…and it could happen too
Arim
October 23rd, 2012
9:22 pm
“So many” calling for Richt’s head? No one is.
It’s 1 guy, who uses a bunch of fake names like “tampa Gator”.
JB
October 23rd, 2012
9:24 pm
Some post today have suggest that Dawgs have been playing possum…..Pretty funny. What did we play against Carolina? I don’t know what will change once the whistle blows Saturday from last week sneaking out of Lexington with a 5 point win, with the outcome in doubt with 4 minutes left, against the worst Kentucky team in years, who on Oct 13th, got beat 49-7 by a coachless Arkansas team with a disgruntled locker room. Call me crazy.
JB
October 23rd, 2012
9:26 pm
real good chance of rain Saturday. That helps Florida.
Big Crimson 75
October 23rd, 2012
9:26 pm
Tampa — you’re right about the National Media wanting Ga to win, however Slive wants a 1 – 2 SEC CG.
Especially another Bama-Fla matchup.
Slive knows he can’t expect a repeat of last year, getting both slots in the Big Game.
JB
October 23rd, 2012
9:28 pm
Big Crimson…..Slive will get it.
Tstick
October 23rd, 2012
9:29 pm
Bradley,
The bigger they are, the harder it is to lose. Hope you are correct. Go Dawgs!
Stick
JB
October 23rd, 2012
9:29 pm
If Fla does get there 12-0, Bama wins easy. Bama great D against a real average Gator Offense. D wins 99 of 100 times.
JB
October 23rd, 2012
9:31 pm
Wonder if Bradley would take that for $100 straight up? I could use 100 to buy a new putter.
sandiegodawg
October 23rd, 2012
9:38 pm
Enter your comments here
Dawg Doo
October 23rd, 2012
9:38 pm
I doubt Saban would lose much sleep if he had to face UGA’s offense.
Arim
October 23rd, 2012
9:40 pm
Dawg doo = JB = sandiegodawg = tstick
all the same guy
JC
October 23rd, 2012
9:42 pm
aRIM, AGREE!
Joey
October 23rd, 2012
9:43 pm
Yep, all the same guy
he does this all day long
MC
October 23rd, 2012
9:43 pm
Agree, it is one guy
JB
October 23rd, 2012
9:44 pm
Not so fast Ahole…………..I’ve been on here for years. Under one moniker
GatorNation
October 23rd, 2012
9:45 pm
Georgia do not have a chance.. Georgia fans are never realistic when it come to Georgia… no matter how bad the play…
JB
October 23rd, 2012
9:46 pm
Joey………..I can’t believe you
Dawg Doo
October 23rd, 2012
9:47 pm
Sorry, conspiracy theorists. JB isn’t me.
JB
October 23rd, 2012
9:49 pm
Joey has been reading me a long long time. I read him. He’s as hard on this coach and staff as ANY blogger, right Joey.
BG
October 23rd, 2012
9:50 pm
GO DAWGS!
GT Fan
October 23rd, 2012
9:54 pm
Gee, Mr. Bradley, and I haven’t been wrong on Bama this season either!
Jerry
October 23rd, 2012
9:54 pm
The dawgs won’t win Saturday, and won’t even come close, and here’s why. Our defense sucks and they lack heart. Furthermore, the coaching staff is the reason why the defense has no heart. You can’t teach heart, and furthermore, how can a coaching staff with no heart ask it’s players to play with heart? I only hope that after this season is over with, Richt is shown the door, and he takes his bible with him.
atlgator
October 23rd, 2012
9:59 pm
2007 was one of the worst-tackling Gator defenses in memory. That’s the only way UGA pulled it out. This Gator D is measurably better than that one. UGA will keep it close. And wear down in a pivital 4th qtr. Can’t wait.
DawgNole
October 23rd, 2012
10:01 pm
GTBob
October 23rd, 2012
5:45 pm
Against common opponents (UT, Vandy, SC, UK) this year:
UGA: 3-1, +29 point differential
Florida: 4-0, +102 point differential
On top of that Florida beat a top 10 team. Something UGA hasn’t done in recent memory. Plus its Florida who UGA never plays well against. Sorry, but UGA seems like a pretty silly pick here Mark. I know you want to play the hopeful homer but be realistic every once in a while.
________________________
Whoa, have you ever changed your tune, GTBob! Love to say I told you so, but–I told you so. And please don’t say again that you’re STILL unimpressed with the gators. That puts you in company with Thomas Brown–a truly nauseating thought.
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October 23rd, 2012
10:03 pm
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Legit
October 23rd, 2012
10:06 pm
“I still find it amazing that so many of you are calling for the head of the head coach that has your team ranked #10 in the BCS”
I find it amazing that Mark Richt is one of the highest paid coaches in college football and has a 2-14 record against ranked teams over the last couple of years.
S
October 23rd, 2012
10:10 pm
Enter your comments here
JRW7
October 23rd, 2012
10:11 pm
DAWGS are ranked 10th with 6 wins, 6 wins over below average teams that have a combined 12-31 record. DAWGS haven’t beaten anyone! But, I hope they beat the Gators, GO DAWGS!
DAWG with two bags over head
October 23rd, 2012
10:11 pm
Wishful thinking, but not really plausible Mark. The USS “CMR Might Win a Big Game” sailed a long, long time ago. No one’s not going to sucker me into thinking they’ll be any more motivated, better coached, or better prepared that they were for South Carolina (or Bama in 08, etc., etc,, etc.) To suggest otherwise really just seems like a ploy to increase webpage traffic (and hence ad revenues).
Z Dawg
October 23rd, 2012
10:14 pm
Dawgs have a chance win only if they can run the ball on gators. Go Dawgs.
Shawn Williams, just what the D needs!!!
October 23rd, 2012
10:15 pm
Williams’ outburst needed to be said weeks ago, and may have been for all we know. Disappointed
that CMR downplayed it as almost a misquote. Dogs D has as much talent as any in the nation, and they play lifeless, listless sloppy ball. Leadership like that will also be noticed by GM’s all over the NFL. Good job, 36!!!
Fair n Balanced
October 23rd, 2012
10:17 pm
Hoping and praying! That’s all we got, but at least we got that!
Danny Ford
October 23rd, 2012
10:17 pm
Florida will win by 17 points. Maybe Georgia should try to move to the ACC conference.
Shawn Williams, just what the D needs!!!
October 23rd, 2012
10:17 pm
BUT, I’m afraid that we’ll see our offense revert to its old predictable ways.
Florida wins…again…..sigh.
cloudodust
October 23rd, 2012
10:24 pm
Discipline. The stats I’ve found says Georgia has played better than Florida in the penalty column. So far in 2012,
UGA 52 for 358 yds
UF 55 for 462 yds
Watching Grantham’s defense’s over the years, I’m impressed here thinking maybe they’re avoiding the 15 yarders. Usually, they have a habit of playing, well, stupid in years past. Not so bad ths year?
Big Crimson 75
October 23rd, 2012
10:25 pm
I do believe this Shawn Williams incident factors in Ga’s favor.
If the Coach can’t motivate his players, nothing wrong with the players taking control.
jack
October 23rd, 2012
10:31 pm
Mark, Mark, Mark. Puh-lease.
Go Gator....
October 23rd, 2012
10:35 pm
Jeff – You’re going to need to hang your hat on more than just emotion on why UGA wins this game. I can tell you right now this game will be won or lost on how effective the lines are. If UGA can’t block the d-line and if florida’s o-line can get a push, it could be a tough day. UGA is going to have to match the physicality on both sides of the ball. Florida is going to bully. And as they’ve done all year, they are looking to sap a teams will to compete by the second half. It’s not pretty football but it’s effective..
wcp
October 23rd, 2012
10:55 pm
God Bless you poor dogs, Best wishes in J’ville, have a great weekend and enjoy the long trip back.
t2go
October 23rd, 2012
11:13 pm
Yes Georgia could win this game! I hope they do…Floridas offense sux!
t2go
October 23rd, 2012
11:27 pm
I think the Georgia/S Carolina game was very similar to the S Carolina/Fla game…both games were over when one team chocked early. Yes USC was playing much better than the Dawgs that night but who knows what could have happened if the second play would have been an interception instead of a 69 yd gain…just like the first play in the USC/Fla game…Both were games of momentum that just got away from the eventual losers. The S Carolina game was horrible for the Dawgs…but I do not think it defines them. I am changing my tune. I think the Dawgs can get it done vs. Florida!
John Killian
October 23rd, 2012
11:31 pm
As a disenchanted uga fan, i have to say Florida beats them. The way uga has played and the simple fact that they have not played as a team (nor had all starters on the feild at the same time since game one). UGA wins 1 out of every 4 years.
save your money to Jacksonville, and come to statesboro on Nov. 4th for a better game as GSU (the real GSU, for you Georgia State people ) shows you how football is played.
ShowmeYurTD's
October 23rd, 2012
11:34 pm
“Fl offense sux”…..not as bad as UGA’s heartless defense that’s t played this year… Maybe we’ll man up in Jax
the truth
October 23rd, 2012
11:39 pm
Do you think about what you are writing? Do you actually read it before sending in for print?
UGA is 18th in total offense because they have only played one quality defense and was held to 224 yards, just about half their season average. There goes your “big spread” in offense.
How about this big spread. Two common opponents. Tennessee, UGA gives up 44 points and 478 yards, Florida 20 points and 340 yards. South Carolina. UGA gives up 35 points and 392 yards, Florida 11 points and 191 yards.
Florida has beaten BCS #6 LSU and BCS #20 Texas A&M. In both of those games they were down at half and dominated the second half. They pounded LSU and wore them down running the ball. UGA just gave up over 200 yards rushing to Kentucky. That is a problem. They are confident and are playing tough. UGA, not so much.
Does UGA have a chance to win? Of course they do, these are college kids playing a game and anything can happen on a Saturday. Taking the time to write a column trying to give logical reasons why when there are no logical reasons is a waste of time. Save the effort. Next time write this:
UGA Will Win…I FEEL IT.
ShowmeYurTD's
October 23rd, 2012
11:40 pm
Maybe we’ll score the first touchdown, demonstrate unsportsmanlike celebration in the end zone and fl will go on to win 52-7. Can’t help it…..I’m ready for change at the top! GO DAWGS!