Not many are picking Georgia over Florida. I am, though
This isn’t exactly a revelation, given that I made the prediction nearly five months ago, but here, for late tuners-in, it is: I like Georgia over Florida. Believe it or not, I’m not alone.
The many men of Scouts Inc. — Todd McShay, Steve Muench and Kevin Weidl – have declared on ESPN Insider (link requires registration) that the Bulldogs will beat the Gators 26-23. Their reasoning, conveniently enough, dovetails with what I’m now thinking. Back in May, I was thinking Georgia would simply be the better team. It hasn’t been to date, which doesn’t mean it can’t be Saturday.
From the Scouts Inc. preview:
Signs can’t always be trusted, especially in rivalry games. So don’t be surprised when Georgia turns in its most emotionally charged effort of the year. For 60 minutes, all the elite individual talent on Georgia’s defense will work together as a unit, and it will be enough to hand the Gators their first loss of the season.
I just watched Georgia barely beat one of the worst Kentucky teams in my memory. (And I’m a Kentucky grad, and I have a long memory.) I also caught a goodly portion of the Gators’ thrashing of South Carolina. If last Saturday is the measure, the Bulldogs don’t have a chance. But no two games, I’ve learned over my now-lengthy life, are alike. Just because the Gamecocks kept giving Florida the ball doesn’t mean Georgia will.
Florida scored 21 first-half points against South Carolina while gaining 29 yards. The Gators’ three touchdown drives spanned a total of 32 yards. The Gamecocks fumbled a punt and a kickoff return, and the game was gone. If Georgia does the same, the Bulldogs could well lose by 33 points, too. But what if they don’t do the same?
Florida is seventh nationally in total defense. Georgia is 47th. That’s a big spread, but not as big as this: Georgia is 18th in total offense to Florida’s 100th. What if the Bulldogs hold the ball — which won’t be easy; the Gators are ninth-best in turnover margin — and make Florida drive 70 yards to score? (For the record, Florida’s 44 points against South Carolina came on a day when the Gators managed 183 yards.) What if the Gators, whose 114th-ranked passing offense sits three spots below Georgia Tech’s, fall behind and have to throw?
There’s no question Georgia’s defense has underperformed. That doesn’t mean this unit is without talent. These are mostly the same defenders who enabled Georgia to finish fifth nationally in total defense last season. They’re capable of a big game in a big setting.
Yes, I’ve thought as much before about Georgia, often in a game involving Florida, and been wrong more times than right. But the dynamics of this installment have changed so quickly that the Bulldogs, who were the preseason pick to rule the SEC East, will arrive being given little chance to win by most observers, many Bulldog fans among them. That’s not the worst place to be. Coaches love it when they’ve got a good team that’s being utterly dismissed.
Has Florida been impressive? Absolutely. Have the Gators had the better season? They have by far. But LSU had a better 2011 season than Alabama — heck, LSU even beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa — and that mattered not one whit when the two met again in the BCS title game.
If Georgia can win Saturday, it will override the memory of the bitter loss at South Carolina and position itself to play again for the SEC championship. So far we’ve seen only snippets, but I’m convinced there’s a complete game in these Bulldogs. I’m encouraged to know someone else agrees..
Further reading: Why this is a big game for Georgia — but an even bigger one for Mark Richt.
By Mark Bradley
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503 comments Add your comment
Tarryuga
October 23rd, 2012
7:31 pm
BullDogMike, are you having a seizure? Multiple comments…Here’s hoping the Dawgs don’t have one!!
Seriously folks, if we all knew, including me, what was going to really happen, Vegas would crumble, hence the fun. All I can say is GO DAWGS! SIC’EM!!!!!!!!!!!!!
He Hate Gator
October 23rd, 2012
7:31 pm
With all that talk about Florida is not that good, how did they beat both Top 10 teams on their schedule?
Sammy
October 23rd, 2012
7:32 pm
Auburn 2010 defense:
8.8. pts per game in 2nd half scoring, 4.1 pts per game in 4th quarter
UGA 2012 defense:
8.1 pts per game in 2nd half scoring, 4.9 pts per game in 4th quarter
Just be good when it counts.
Rick James
October 23rd, 2012
7:33 pm
Consider this..Georgia’s offense is ranked No. 4 in the nation and Florida’s defense No. 4, according to the weekly UPS Team Performance Index for all 120 major-college teams. The index ranks Georgia’s defense 50th and Florida’s offense 80th. They just dont look like that scay monster that some say they are.
Tarryuga
October 23rd, 2012
7:35 pm
Cam Newton=Shrek, ya’ll seen them ears?!?! Chipmonk! No wonder he’s crying in Carolina!!
Sorry, that *&^# was funny!
BullDogMike
October 23rd, 2012
7:36 pm
Sorry folks, I rarely have seizures, but I was at the Kentucky game so maybe that had something to do with it..
Sammy
October 23rd, 2012
7:36 pm
Mark Bradley,
I’m using some stats, to try and make you look smart
Tarryuga
October 23rd, 2012
7:37 pm
BullDogMike, my apologies, no damn wonder you spazzed!
BullDogMike
October 23rd, 2012
7:39 pm
Tarryuga, apology accepted. Stay thirsty my friend ……..
Rick James
October 23rd, 2012
7:40 pm
@Sloppy Seconds
Do you guys realize that UGA has lost more games in 1 year than Alabama and LSU has in 4 years and. 3 years respectively!
——————————————————————————————————————————–
And that has what to do with Georgia/Florida?
We Run The East
October 23rd, 2012
7:40 pm
Before the SC game Sammy was throwing around pointless stats and saying UGA gets no respect. And now we are to believe UGA 2012 is equal to auburn 2010?
Flat Tire On I-95 in Jacksonville
October 23rd, 2012
7:41 pm
Sammy
Saban 3 National Titles
Aub National Title
Richt Bobo and Grantham??????????????? Oh yea Crickets Chirping
Good Stuff
October 23rd, 2012
7:42 pm
In think you are HIGH on drugs.
Big Crimson 75
October 23rd, 2012
7:43 pm
Rjames — it’s a winnable game for Ga.
Forget the stats, the only stat I keep seeing is the dogs haven’t had a winning streak in this series since the elder Bush was in Office.
dogegoneit
October 23rd, 2012
7:43 pm
poodles poodles and more poodles…….. We dont even have a real mascot…..Inbread dogs we have….. Just like the English Monarchs.. I wonder if our current mascot can even Bark!?
Flat Tire On I-95 in Jacksonville
October 23rd, 2012
7:48 pm
Im still waiting on Sammy to give us some stats on why we got out coached against SC and almost lost to KY a team with no QB or RB and with 1 win
Big Crimson 75
October 23rd, 2012
7:48 pm
Flat — it’s coming this year!!
Sammy’s devised multiple scenarios — all ending with the dogs Natl Champs & Murray hoisting the Heisman!!
Flat Tire On I-95 in Jacksonville
October 23rd, 2012
7:52 pm
Big Crimson
Sammy is already selling UGA 2012 National Title T-shirts
They are on sale right now; on the back you get a full list of useless stats
Get one while they last
All proceeds go to pay for Sammy’s care at Arkham Asylum
Old Dog Class of 80
October 23rd, 2012
7:52 pm
“So edge goes to:
Gators, defense
UGA, special teams
UGA, offense
UGA, coaching”
What you been smokin’ Sammy?
Special Teams????? Would that include placekicking – as in PATs?
Coaching – you have GOT to be kidding! Maybe if you get points for no emotion.
Old Dog Class of 80
October 23rd, 2012
7:57 pm
Yes, the DAWGS COULD win over the Gators. The Dawgs COULD lose to Ga. Tech also.
Florida vs. Georgia: TV Schedule, Live Stream, Radio, Game Time and More | Scripting4You Blog
October 23rd, 2012
8:00 pm
[...] Atlanta Constitution Journal’s Mark Bradley notes that Florida has been more impressive than Georgia this year, but brings up a recent [...]
Big Crimson 75
October 23rd, 2012
8:04 pm
Haha
Sammy would be one of the worst in the “rogue” gallery!!
Right there with Calender Man, Moth Man & Louis the Lilac.
Sloppy
October 23rd, 2012
8:07 pm
Rick Janice
To the person trying to compare UGA to Alabama
Colas SC Dog
October 23rd, 2012
8:10 pm
Mark, you will look like a genius Saturday night. Dogs finally put one together thanks to the law of averages and win a big one.
To Tell the Truth
October 23rd, 2012
8:10 pm
What a MORON!!! FL will OWN GA AGAIN!!!!
Roll Tide with PRIDE!!!
October 23rd, 2012
8:11 pm
UGA beating Florida this weekend?
Could happen!
Would love to see it!
But doubt it will happen. Gators are coming together – and they are finding ways to win games in the second half. In fact, they are just dominating teams in the second half.
Why?
Because they are winning the game in the trenches and come mid 3rd quarter – they have worn down the opponent. combine that and the fact they are not turning the ball over and pound the ball. Their OC is creative in the running attack.
So if UGA gets beat by Florida – they need to be carefull not to get upset by Ole Miss. Ole Miss is playing hard and improving – could be an upset.
So, if UGA gets beat by Florida – then under the Richt era:
Alabama hired a coach and passed UGA’s program.
Arkansas – Petrino passed UGA’s program – and if they played tomorrow – I am not sure who would win – based on the Ark/KY game – probably ARK.
Florida – Urban quickly placed UGA ahead of Richts program and made Richt his personal bit*h! Now Muschamp has Florida playing above UGA.
LSU – UGA went neck and neck – but Les Miles has kept LSU in the national spotlight and on an elite level – and making coaching changes to raise the bar – even when they are good. unlike UGA – where coaching changes are made because disaster has struck,
South Carolina – Hmmm, Spurrier is 4-4 against UGA at USCe – and has won the last 3 games in a row. which program is better?
At the end of the day – if being a good program and consistently the 5th 6th or 7th best program in the SEC – then no complaints. By the way – the 5th , 6th or 7th best team in the SEC is a top 2 program in the ACC, a top 3 program in the B1G and P12, and top 4 in the B12.
If UGA wants to raise the bar and make a run at being nationally elite – it will need to make a coaching change.
Again – rooting for UGA this weekend, but judging on how UGA plays top shelf opponents under Richts guidance over the last 5 years – Florida will win this game………..MARK IT DOWN!!!!
We (did) Run The East
October 23rd, 2012
8:15 pm
Adjusted my screen name to more accurately reflect the current status of SC in the SEC East. Maybe lady luck will turn our way before East is decided. Just beat TN and Arky!
Richt's Butt Cut
October 23rd, 2012
8:17 pm
Why does everyone overlook the fact that the #5 ranking for the D last year was due to the patsy schedule? The D gave up 35+ to Boise, SCarolina, and LSU and faltered in the 4th quarter against Michigan State… Are you blind Mark or just choosing to ignore this?
Ogeechee Dawg
October 23rd, 2012
8:20 pm
Roll Tide with Pride – I hate to admit this – but your post is pretty factual. UGA is a good program. We are on the top end of the good teams – but their appears to be a large gap to bridge to consistently be one of the nationally elite big dawgs!
We could go 11-2 this year – and be disappointed and 3rd in the SEC East.
Bottom line, with all the returning talent on defense, a top flight QB, good receivers and surprising good running backs – plus a taylor made schedule. If we can not position for a BCS or a run at a National Title this year – then when????
For 2012 – we failed our first real test on a two test season. Test #2 this weekend.
Erin
October 23rd, 2012
8:25 pm
Nnnoooooooooooo!
Tampa Gator
October 23rd, 2012
8:40 pm
Georgia wins if their OL plays the game of their combined lives against one of the best and deepest defenisve lines and a group of talented and solid linebackers as there is in the SEC. I think it is that simple. And Georgia has to stop the run and force Florida to pass the ball deep in their own territory and hope that Driskel starts to make mistakes…..something he has not done all year. If Georgia is unable to run the ball, Florida will pin their ears back and chase Murray down.
Personally, I think the final score will be very close and can go either way. Georgia is very good. Florida is very good. Going to be fun to watch in JAX for sure.
GiggityGiggityGoDawgs
October 23rd, 2012
8:40 pm
Has anyone else seen this?
http://www.theunsportsmanlikegentleman.com/2012/10/easley-not-ruling-out-murdering-someone.html
This looks like some motivational material to me! Pretty moronic too
Tampa Gator
October 23rd, 2012
8:43 pm
……and…..too bad Georgia lost to SC. Imagine how BIG this game would be…….and none of you would be talking about firing your head coach. I hope Georgia does fire Richt…..because that will open a closed door to Tunsil and make it a Bama vs. Florida deal…..If Georgia wins Saturday….I think Tunsil will commit to Georgia shortly after that. If Georgia loses and the heat of Richt increases……Florida continue to chase Tunsil…..and Bama will amp up the recruiting pressure for Tunsil even more.
wally
October 23rd, 2012
8:46 pm
I am a Dog fan but also a realist Florida 56 Georgia 7
Beast from the East
October 23rd, 2012
8:46 pm
A fool and his money…
Go Gators!
Dewnsav
October 23rd, 2012
8:47 pm
T-Gator, agree with you post…gators are favored, as they should be, but I don’t feel it is an upset if dogs win…gonna get down to tunovers…if Murray hangs onto the ball our chances of winning go way up…I believe both teams will be sky high, should be a good one…go dogs
Tampa Gator
October 23rd, 2012
8:49 pm
Sammy….
Are you brain dead?
GregD
October 23rd, 2012
8:50 pm
If Bradley is picking UGA then i’ll put all my money on Florida haha, jk, Bradley u have good reads but not always spot on projections!
Whopper Dawg
October 23rd, 2012
8:50 pm
Mark,
Are you cash flush?
Let me know.
Whopper
World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party
October 23rd, 2012
8:52 pm
Hit
Real
Hard
Dawgs stink
October 23rd, 2012
8:55 pm
Start buying your Chick-fil-a bowl tickets on Sunday puppies !!!! Gators open up a can of whope ass !!!! 34-7
Tampa Gator
October 23rd, 2012
8:55 pm
Sammy……
“Same UGA offense, same Gators offense, except DRISKELL IS a WORSE THROWER”
Are you brain dead?
Same Georgia offense?????
Georgia has the same OL? NOT. Georgia has the same RBs? NOT. Georgia has the same best WR (Bennett)? NOT. Georgia has the same TE? NOT.
Same Florida offense?????
Same OL? NOT. Same RBs? NOT. Brantley a better thrower than Driskel…..certainly NOT. And Driskel is 6′4 and 245 lbs., runs a 4.6 and has a cannon for an arm.
YES…..YOU ARE BRAIN DEAD.
Sloppy
October 23rd, 2012
8:57 pm
This game is going to ugly. Both teams have players who make dumb mistakes and commit unsportsmanlike penalties. I see ejections and a ton of penalties.
Tampa Gator
October 23rd, 2012
9:01 pm
Wally….
If you are a realist…..then you better start getting real with your predicted score. Muschamp’s approach to games does not project with the Gators scoring over 50 on anyone. I do not think either team will score more than 28 points in this game. More like a 27-21 type of score. Georgia will score points……but will they be able to not turn the ball over vs. the Gators D and stop the Gator running game. Sorry….but the Georgia defense has not played like the LSU and SC defenses. Florida made Kentucky look like a high school team. Kentucky moved the ball on Georgia and could have won that game. I know two games have nothing to do with the next game……but Georgia better fix a lot of things on D if they expect to win this game vs. a much more talented team than Kentucky. And Georgia better not get behind Florida this year like they did last year. And Driskel is not a one legged Brantley waiting to get hit by Jarvis Jones this year either.
TampaGator
October 23rd, 2012
9:02 pm
I like cheese
zbulldawg
October 23rd, 2012
9:02 pm
LET THE BIG DAWG EAT
Flat Tire On I-95 in Jacksonville
October 23rd, 2012
9:05 pm
Sammy will be right back after he plays the UGA FL game on PS3
Following this exciting computer game Sammy will give us the play by play; including individual stats; post game comments from the coaches and Sammy will give us 300 reasons why UGA will beat FL 75 to 3 just from playing NCAA 2013
Stay tuned
ShowmeYurTD's
October 23rd, 2012
9:06 pm
Hopefully UGA will come out with smoke coming out of their noses, not the charmIn three ply soft team that’s played all year. If not, we will get our teeth kicked in!!! Aaron control your butterflies and butter fingers. GO DAWG!
Big Crimson 75
October 23rd, 2012
9:07 pm
Flat — do you believe the rumor Richt is stepping down after this game/season?
Tampa Gator
October 23rd, 2012
9:08 pm
Sloppy…..
What Gator games have you been watching lately. Florida has not been making a lot of stupid, unsportsmanlike penalties this year. Florida has two unsportsmanlike penalties called vs. SC….and it one was a phantom call vs. Jenkins on the SC QB and one was for roughing the snapper on a punt….and Morrison clearly waited the required amount of time before knocking the snapper on his arse. The ref penalized Morrison because he hit him so hard….not because he did anything illegal. Muschamp went crazy on both calls….which were bogus at best. Florida has played hard, tough, and fast this year…..but very clean this year as well. But you can think what you want.