Not many are picking Georgia over Florida. I am, though
This isn’t exactly a revelation, given that I made the prediction nearly five months ago, but here, for late tuners-in, it is: I like Georgia over Florida. Believe it or not, I’m not alone.
The many men of Scouts Inc. — Todd McShay, Steve Muench and Kevin Weidl – have declared on ESPN Insider (link requires registration) that the Bulldogs will beat the Gators 26-23. Their reasoning, conveniently enough, dovetails with what I’m now thinking. Back in May, I was thinking Georgia would simply be the better team. It hasn’t been to date, which doesn’t mean it can’t be Saturday.
From the Scouts Inc. preview:
Signs can’t always be trusted, especially in rivalry games. So don’t be surprised when Georgia turns in its most emotionally charged effort of the year. For 60 minutes, all the elite individual talent on Georgia’s defense will work together as a unit, and it will be enough to hand the Gators their first loss of the season.
I just watched Georgia barely beat one of the worst Kentucky teams in my memory. (And I’m a Kentucky grad, and I have a long memory.) I also caught a goodly portion of the Gators’ thrashing of South Carolina. If last Saturday is the measure, the Bulldogs don’t have a chance. But no two games, I’ve learned over my now-lengthy life, are alike. Just because the Gamecocks kept giving Florida the ball doesn’t mean Georgia will.
Florida scored 21 first-half points against South Carolina while gaining 29 yards. The Gators’ three touchdown drives spanned a total of 32 yards. The Gamecocks fumbled a punt and a kickoff return, and the game was gone. If Georgia does the same, the Bulldogs could well lose by 33 points, too. But what if they don’t do the same?
Florida is seventh nationally in total defense. Georgia is 47th. That’s a big spread, but not as big as this: Georgia is 18th in total offense to Florida’s 100th. What if the Bulldogs hold the ball — which won’t be easy; the Gators are ninth-best in turnover margin — and make Florida drive 70 yards to score? (For the record, Florida’s 44 points against South Carolina came on a day when the Gators managed 183 yards.) What if the Gators, whose 114th-ranked passing offense sits three spots below Georgia Tech’s, fall behind and have to throw?
There’s no question Georgia’s defense has underperformed. That doesn’t mean this unit is without talent. These are mostly the same defenders who enabled Georgia to finish fifth nationally in total defense last season. They’re capable of a big game in a big setting.
Yes, I’ve thought as much before about Georgia, often in a game involving Florida, and been wrong more times than right. But the dynamics of this installment have changed so quickly that the Bulldogs, who were the preseason pick to rule the SEC East, will arrive being given little chance to win by most observers, many Bulldog fans among them. That’s not the worst place to be. Coaches love it when they’ve got a good team that’s being utterly dismissed.
Has Florida been impressive? Absolutely. Have the Gators had the better season? They have by far. But LSU had a better 2011 season than Alabama — heck, LSU even beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa — and that mattered not one whit when the two met again in the BCS title game.
If Georgia can win Saturday, it will override the memory of the bitter loss at South Carolina and position itself to play again for the SEC championship. So far we’ve seen only snippets, but I’m convinced there’s a complete game in these Bulldogs. I’m encouraged to know someone else agrees..
Further reading: Why this is a big game for Georgia — but an even bigger one for Mark Richt.
By Mark Bradley
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503 comments Add your comment
Sammy
October 23rd, 2012
6:40 pm
uga HAS HIT 83.3% OF FIELD GOALS, Fla has hit 85%. No difference.
vesaversa
October 23rd, 2012
6:41 pm
The sport writers may be over looking GA and what this Iconic game have meant through the years .But i seriously dough Florida is overlooking them Dawgs .
Ted M
October 23rd, 2012
6:42 pm
“They’re capable of a big game in a big setting.”
Mark…everybody, that’s the quote that jumped out at me big time. And it is true but it has been true for 4 plus years now and they have failed miserably every time, every single time.
I am happy to say I agree, the Dawgs are so due and they win. But not because they are better coached and better prepared team…just because they are gonna be lucky.
Sammy
October 23rd, 2012
6:43 pm
Gators are overrated.
Offense is ranked in SEC:
Last in passing yards
9th in total offense
7th in scoring
So special teams edge to UGA.
Offense UGA by a mile.
Light in the loafers
October 23rd, 2012
6:44 pm
Ever notice how Aaron trots onto the field of play?
Sammy
October 23rd, 2012
6:45 pm
Gators oline ranked 10th in sec in sacks allowed at 21 sacks.
not too good.
Sammy
October 23rd, 2012
6:47 pm
Both defenses are top 15 in both 2nd half scoring, and 4th quarter scoring.
Gatoers defense is bette rin 1st half scoring,
Richt is 1-0 vs. Muschamp.
So edge goes to:
Gators, defense
UGA, special teams
UGA, offense
UGA, coaching
Sloppy
October 23rd, 2012
6:48 pm
Laughing at all of these bold UGA predictions!
Sammy
October 23rd, 2012
6:48 pm
If Vandy held Gillelie to 67 yards, wonder how ferw he’ll ruin for against UGA’s jam packed with future NFL’ers starting front 7?
Sammy
October 23rd, 2012
6:50 pm
UGA did beat Gators last year.
Same coaches.
Same UGA offense, same Gators defense.
Same UGA offense, same Gators offense, except DRISKELL IS a WORSE THROWER.
Sammy
October 23rd, 2012
6:51 pm
Wonder why Muschamp’s team has lost 100% of the games in thwe Gaotrs/Dogs series as a player, asst coach or Head Coach?
Whichever team Muschamp’s on always loses.
Sloppy
October 23rd, 2012
6:51 pm
Do you guys realize that UGA has lost more games in 1 year than Alabama and LSU has in 4 years and. 3 years respectively!
Sammy
October 23rd, 2012
6:53 pm
Here’s what will happen Saturday.
UGA playmakers will show up and play big.
Offense:
Gurley, King, Mitchell, Lynch, Murray
Defense:
Williams, Rambo, Jones, Ogletree, Herrera
No way those 9 guys let UGA lose.
Vampire Bill
October 23rd, 2012
6:53 pm
If dawgs get past the gators and the rest of the SEC foes and win the East, then,,,, ummm they get completely hammered in the SEC championship game just like last year. Not much to look forward too. Well, Mark Richt is a fine christian man. There is that….
Sammy
October 23rd, 2012
6:57 pm
Murray in 2012 has thrown for more yards AND td’s
than Driskel and Shaw COMBINED.
Jay
October 23rd, 2012
6:58 pm
Vegas thinks otherwise. Funny you forget both uga’s offense and defense has been bad the past two games. I see total a close first half and uf dominating the second
uf 34 ga 20
Sloppy
October 23rd, 2012
6:59 pm
Whining
H20
October 23rd, 2012
7:00 pm
Sammy have you looked at ugas laugher of a schedule. Tevin Washinton could throw against uga’s opponents.
LakeDawg
October 23rd, 2012
7:00 pm
For Uga to win a lot of things have to happen:
1) UGA has to come out motivated and believing they’re destined to win. The coaches can’t subconciously project anxiety/fear or the Dawgs will come out like deer in the headlights (see USCe).
2) Grantham has to have the Dawgs playing an aggressive scheme. 7-8 in the box, mix in blitzes, and play man. Uga players are talented, let them play to their talent. They get passive and confused with too much zone.
3) On again, off again Bobo has to call a good game. Including being patient with the run game and not going into a shell if UGA gets a lead.
4) UGA has to match UF’s intensity for the full 60 minutes. Mental toughness is paramount. If UGA is in the game late, they must have the fortitude not to flinch if UF tries to turn up the heat and take the game over.
5)Finally, UGA has to get LUCKY. They have to win the TO battle.
IF all of these things happen, Uga can win. What are the odds that all of these things happen?
Techster
October 23rd, 2012
7:00 pm
The Gators have the puppies for a snack.
ss
October 23rd, 2012
7:00 pm
UGA being overlooked? No, I got a pretty good look when they got their a$$ kicked by SC.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Big Crimson 75
October 23rd, 2012
7:02 pm
Sammy — for entertainment purposes only, how do you think Ga matches up with the Tide?
H20
October 23rd, 2012
7:03 pm
I think ole miss will beat uga. They are certainly playing better the past two weeks
Techster
October 23rd, 2012
7:04 pm
The dogs got trounced by the Cocks. The Gators stomped the Cocks. The dogs struggled to beat Kentucky. Now the puppies are going to whip the Gators?
Sammy
October 23rd, 2012
7:06 pm
Gators had
-19 rushing yards in 2011 vs. UGA
Negative 19.
And this is the same defense.
Gonna be fun.
Goober Pyle
October 23rd, 2012
7:06 pm
I believe the dawgs can beat the gators. Florida’s offense is not very good. The bad thing is the prize is the 400lb gorilla from Tuscaloosa.
dogegoneit
October 23rd, 2012
7:08 pm
Mark… I want some of whatever your Smoking!!! It must be reallllllllllllyyyyyy good!!
DDPO
October 23rd, 2012
7:09 pm
Maybe CMR will pull out a new end zone dance and have the bench rush the field like they did a few years ago?
hunkerdown
October 23rd, 2012
7:10 pm
I hope you are right Mark. I thought about hedging my bet and flying to Vegas to lay some money on the gators and giving up the points. That is logic speaking. My heart wants the Dawgs to win! But 1 and 9 in games against oppents in the top ten since 2008 is not to great for the home team. Maybe as they say the sun don’t shine on the same dogs fanny all the time. Maybe Saturday the tides will change. We will know soon enough.
Sammy
October 23rd, 2012
7:10 pm
I like UGA’s chances vs. Bama.
Tide hasn’t played anybody yet, so we don’t know how good they are, but no one repeats as Natl Champs in the SEC.
Doesn’t happen.
BjohnDawg
October 23rd, 2012
7:10 pm
Cannot drink that Kool-Aid Mark. I am a Dawg fan…but that Kool Aid is past its expiration date and tastes sour.
I have to say it, but have no faith in the heart of this team. Outside of the young tailbacks and King..
Even williams is prone to cheap stupid personal foul penalties.
RunninWithTheDawgs
October 23rd, 2012
7:11 pm
Our freshmen running backs have got to be ready for the strip tackling that the Gators are great at. Murray has got to be extra careful tossing the ball against the Gators D secondary, and we can’t let them run the ball down our throat, and yeah we’ve got a good chance in this one. I’ll be there. GO DAWGS !
Old Dog Class of 80
October 23rd, 2012
7:13 pm
I believe the Dawgs COULD beat Florida. I also believe I COULD win the Meg-Millions Jackpot. Probably the same chance.
Big Crimson 75
October 23rd, 2012
7:14 pm
but no one repeats as Natl Champs in the SEC.
—–
Check your history book.
Bama’s done it, multiple times.
Sammy
October 23rd, 2012
7:14 pm
Anyone know what Saban’s record was the year after he won a National Championship the 1st 2 times?
Also, when was the last time someone in the SEC won 2 national championships, in a row?
Doesn’t happen.
Old Dog Class of 80
October 23rd, 2012
7:14 pm
“but no one repeats as Natl Champs in the SEC.”
SC doesn’t beat Georgia three times in a row, either.
Sammy
October 23rd, 2012
7:15 pm
Once in the last 40 years someone did it.
2.5% chance.
98% chance Saban chokes.
Especially considered how Saban handled success the previous 2 times?
GTBob
October 23rd, 2012
7:18 pm
I like Sammy. Most UGA fans like Mark are fairly subtle about their delusion. Sammy just puts it all out there in full force.
Ben
October 23rd, 2012
7:19 pm
You must be kidding, really? Lets’ review Bradleys’ reasoning: UGA will win Saturday because: 1) It’s a rivalry game? 2) Scount insiders are also picking UGA? 3) Just because the Dogs haven’t looked very good lately, doesn’t mean they won’t play better this week? 4) LSU lost in a rematch with Bama, so that could happen here? OK…If my Aunt Wilma had a mustache, she would look like my Uncle Fred…Just because the sun came up today, doesn’t mean it will come up tomorrow?? How about these REAL reasons Florida should win this week: 1) Except for Vandy, Gators have already shown they have performed better, against common opponents..(Tn, SC, Ky) 2) Not only do they have the better defense, but a MUCH better kicking game 3) One of the UGA starting lineman won’t play, on a suspect Defensive Line 4) Never a good sign when one of your players calls out his teammates in public..5) Rivalry? Last 22: UF 18 Wins…UGA 4
BullDogMike
October 23rd, 2012
7:20 pm
Sorry Mark, I just don’t see it happening. As much as I want to see the hated Gators go down, (against everybody) , this is borderline insanity. Besides, our OL cant possibly improve enough in a week..
Sammy
October 23rd, 2012
7:21 pm
Muschamp is trying to copy Saban.
The problem is, Saban got his butt whipped against Cam Newton’s Auburn.
A great offense beats a great defense every time.
Auburn’s defense was ok. Special teams ok. Offense was like UGA’s, balanced, scored a lot, and put up a lot of yards.
Muschamp using the Bama formula.
UGA using the Auburn Newton formula.
We know how that seaosn ended.
Newton won the Heisman, AUburn won the trophy.
Sammy
October 23rd, 2012
7:23 pm
If great defense won it all, Ravens would win the Super Bowl every year.
BullDogMike
October 23rd, 2012
7:23 pm
Oh yea I forgot…………………the special teams are not very special . And will cost us points and field position…
BullDogMike
October 23rd, 2012
7:23 pm
Oh yea I forgot…………………the special teams are not very special . And will cost us points and field position…
BullDogMike
October 23rd, 2012
7:23 pm
Oh yea I forgot…………………the special teams are not very special . And will cost us points and field position…
BullDogMike
October 23rd, 2012
7:23 pm
Oh yea I forgot…………………the special teams are not very special . And will cost us points and field position…
BullDogMike
October 23rd, 2012
7:23 pm
Oh yea I forgot…………………the special teams are not very special . And will cost us points and field position…
Big Crimson 75
October 23rd, 2012
7:24 pm
UGA using the Auburn Newton formula.
—-
It’s taken me awhile, butt finally I’ve made a dwag admit it!!
Sammy
October 23rd, 2012
7:25 pm
Auburn 2010:
Scoring offense 41 pts per game, 499 offense yards per game, scoring def 24 pts per game
UGA 2012:
Scoring offense 39 pts per game, 486 yards per game offense, scoring defense 24 pts per game
He Hate Gator
October 23rd, 2012
7:30 pm
Sorry, but you lost me somewhere in that because of Cam Newton in Auburn, Ga will on Saturday?