Not many are picking Georgia over Florida. I am, though
This isn’t exactly a revelation, given that I made the prediction nearly five months ago, but here, for late tuners-in, it is: I like Georgia over Florida. Believe it or not, I’m not alone.
The many men of Scouts Inc. — Todd McShay, Steve Muench and Kevin Weidl – have declared on ESPN Insider (link requires registration) that the Bulldogs will beat the Gators 26-23. Their reasoning, conveniently enough, dovetails with what I’m now thinking. Back in May, I was thinking Georgia would simply be the better team. It hasn’t been to date, which doesn’t mean it can’t be Saturday.
From the Scouts Inc. preview:
Signs can’t always be trusted, especially in rivalry games. So don’t be surprised when Georgia turns in its most emotionally charged effort of the year. For 60 minutes, all the elite individual talent on Georgia’s defense will work together as a unit, and it will be enough to hand the Gators their first loss of the season.
I just watched Georgia barely beat one of the worst Kentucky teams in my memory. (And I’m a Kentucky grad, and I have a long memory.) I also caught a goodly portion of the Gators’ thrashing of South Carolina. If last Saturday is the measure, the Bulldogs don’t have a chance. But no two games, I’ve learned over my now-lengthy life, are alike. Just because the Gamecocks kept giving Florida the ball doesn’t mean Georgia will.
Florida scored 21 first-half points against South Carolina while gaining 29 yards. The Gators’ three touchdown drives spanned a total of 32 yards. The Gamecocks fumbled a punt and a kickoff return, and the game was gone. If Georgia does the same, the Bulldogs could well lose by 33 points, too. But what if they don’t do the same?
Florida is seventh nationally in total defense. Georgia is 47th. That’s a big spread, but not as big as this: Georgia is 18th in total offense to Florida’s 100th. What if the Bulldogs hold the ball — which won’t be easy; the Gators are ninth-best in turnover margin — and make Florida drive 70 yards to score? (For the record, Florida’s 44 points against South Carolina came on a day when the Gators managed 183 yards.) What if the Gators, whose 114th-ranked passing offense sits three spots below Georgia Tech’s, fall behind and have to throw?
There’s no question Georgia’s defense has underperformed. That doesn’t mean this unit is without talent. These are mostly the same defenders who enabled Georgia to finish fifth nationally in total defense last season. They’re capable of a big game in a big setting.
Yes, I’ve thought as much before about Georgia, often in a game involving Florida, and been wrong more times than right. But the dynamics of this installment have changed so quickly that the Bulldogs, who were the preseason pick to rule the SEC East, will arrive being given little chance to win by most observers, many Bulldog fans among them. That’s not the worst place to be. Coaches love it when they’ve got a good team that’s being utterly dismissed.
Has Florida been impressive? Absolutely. Have the Gators had the better season? They have by far. But LSU had a better 2011 season than Alabama — heck, LSU even beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa — and that mattered not one whit when the two met again in the BCS title game.
If Georgia can win Saturday, it will override the memory of the bitter loss at South Carolina and position itself to play again for the SEC championship. So far we’ve seen only snippets, but I’m convinced there’s a complete game in these Bulldogs. I’m encouraged to know someone else agrees..
Further reading: Why this is a big game for Georgia — but an even bigger one for Mark Richt.
By Mark Bradley
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503 comments Add your comment
Jason Burngadner
October 24th, 2012
4:46 pm
Georgia will KILL Florida because of 2 reasons:
1. Murray’s prep & arm
2. William’s words of critique.
Georgia by 40+ points.
BANK ON IT FOOL.
DawgNole
October 24th, 2012
4:46 pm
DawgGuy
October 24th, 2012
9:42 am
Speaking of Pollyannish, Chuck Dowdle is a Pollyannish douche bag. He tries to put positive words in CMR’s mouth during interviews instead of letting the coach speak what comes to mind.
________________________
Co-sign! Dowdle takes toadyism to a new level–every week. What a bootlicker.
Glad I’m not the only one who’s noticed.
Ed
October 24th, 2012
4:48 pm
Being opportunistic and finding a variety of ways to score is a tried and true formula for winning football games. In Georgia’s lone perfect season, 1980, we beat very good Clemson and Notre Dame teams with offensive stats that weren’t impressive. I doubt the box score from the 1980 Tennessee game was that impressive, either.
There are only two stats that really matter in a football game: Points Scored, and Points Allowed. Win that battle and you win the war, period. How you get there doesn’t matter.
And anyone who thinks that Florida didn’t kick South Carolina’s rear end didn’t watch the same game I watched.
We need to play our best game in years to have any chance Saturday. Somehow the Dawgs are going to have to leave behind the tendency to choke in games like this. I’m not optimistic, but would love nothing more than to be proven wrong.
Flat Tire On I-95 in Jacksonville
October 24th, 2012
4:49 pm
How Chuck Dowdle took over Laren Smiths job baffles even me
But then again he fits the current kool-aid mold for this entire UGA program
DawgNole
October 24th, 2012
5:15 pm
yankeedawg
October 24th, 2012
9:59 am
Florida is winning with Urban”s players just like Richt did in his 2nd year with Donnan”s players! We won the SEC in his 2nd season as coach Florida will not!!!! And how about my Rutgers team undefeated and whipped Arkansas!
___________________
Being undefeated is something to brag about. Whipping Arkansas isn’t.
DawgNole
October 24th, 2012
5:25 pm
Alphare
October 24th, 2012
10:57 am
UGA players are not paid despite a scholarship. Why would they risk their money-making future to win a few games for other people’s entertainment?
Do you care about them if they cannot make a living after their college career? I don’t blame them.
____________________
So the players should never give 100% effort in college because they’ve only received scholarships (instead of cash) and might jeopardize their future earnings potential?
Sounds like the perspective of a loser to me.
PonGT
October 24th, 2012
5:29 pm
Thanks alot MB. I’ve always been a fan of your journalistic ability. You have always been the best sports columnists the AJC has had, including the late FB. But, and I must emphasize here, whenever you pick UGA in a BIG game, it has become the kiss of death. So thanks alot MB… the kiss of death has been effectuated. Thanks alot.
DawgNole
October 24th, 2012
5:29 pm
KingGator
October 24th, 2012
11:41 am
I’m one voice on here, not the voice of many GD. I have no hatred toward UGA, but am just trying to be as subjective as possible. I know the dawgs have alot more potential and talent than what they’ve shown this yr. I think part of that is playing a soft schedule. You gotta go through some tough games and adversity to really bond as a team, and I’m not sure the dawgs have been able to do that. The gators seem to be playing a nasty defense and steady/error-free offense, so that’s bodes well for them. But, yes, upsets happen all the time, and very likely might happen this Sat., but I’m just saying the logical pick on paper and mojo is the gators.
______________________
SUBjective? Looks like a pretty OBjective comment to me. Maybe you don’t know the difference.
DawgNole
October 24th, 2012
5:40 pm
Tampa Gator
October 23rd, 2012
9:20 pm
…..and by the way……no one that works in the national media wants Florida to beat Georgia. And based on some of the calls made by the refs in the Florida vs. SC game last week……maybe there are people in other places that do not want an undefeated team headed into the SEC title game vs. Bama.
________________________
The ol’ conspiracy theory. “The refs are all against us.” C’mon, TG, you can do better than that.
DawgNole
October 24th, 2012
5:51 pm
RunDog
October 24th, 2012
12:39 pm
If Ga loses this game, McGarity needs to demand that the game be moved to Athens every other year when Ga is the home team. Fla has way too many advantages playing an hour from Gainesville and Ga has to travel a lot farther. That’s why fla wins most of the time—I’m tired of fla having all the advantages.
______________________
I wish they’d play home-and-home, too, but the Jax excuse rings pretty hollow when you consider that UGA STILL owns the series–despite fla’s domination the past 2.2 decades.
ugafancolumbusga
October 24th, 2012
6:14 pm
GO DAWGS!!! SHAWN WILLIAMS IS PARTLY RIGHT BECAUSE YA LL HAVE NT PLAY THE TEAM THAT DID AGAINST FIRST FOUR GAMES THEN FELL APART AGAINST SOUTH CAROLINA… COME ON GUYS , LISTEN TO YOURSELVES , BE THE TEAM AGAIN . MORE INPUT IN PASSING WILL WIN AGAINST THE GATORS ALONG WITH RUSHING BUT HAVE TO GO LEFT OR RIGHT TO GO STRAIGHT UP TO THE TOUCHDOWN GOAL LINE. I LOOK FORWARD TO THE GAME THIS WEEKEND WITH BEST OF LUCK … GO DAWGSSSSSSS.. SICK EM!!!! GOD BLESSS YA LL …..GATORS were never in my favor ever….
HomerMark
October 24th, 2012
7:46 pm
UGA homer for the AJC picks Georgia!! WOW!!! What a surprise!! He picked Ga to play for the BCS title too!!! I’m shocked!
MackDaddy
October 24th, 2012
7:46 pm
BULLDAWG–THOMAS BROWN = EVERY FAKE NAME ON THIS PAGE
ALL THE SAME DUDE
HATES UGA.
WE ONTO YA BRO.
wreckmaniac
October 24th, 2012
8:43 pm
If UGA were to beat FL, their heads would be in clouds so much that they will lose to Auburn because Auburn is going to pull an upset as well and the dawgs are the perfect target.
Typical Georgia Defender
October 24th, 2012
8:51 pm
Beat Florida? I just hope they don’t hurt us. But I promise to try and trip up the Florida ball carriers as they run by me. I’m on scholarship, so it’s the least I can do.
Typical Georgia O-Lineman
October 24th, 2012
8:52 pm
Block those guys? Are you freakin’ kidding me? Murray and Gurshall are on their own!
Georgia's Kicker
October 24th, 2012
8:53 pm
Dear Lord, please don’t let me have a meaningful extra point attempt in this game. Anything but that horror…
Georgia's Punter
October 24th, 2012
8:55 pm
Assuming we can avoid turnovers, I expect to get a LOT of work Saturday.
Mark Richt
October 24th, 2012
8:57 pm
Huh?
BUCCADAWG
October 24th, 2012
9:02 pm
KEEP HE FAITH!!! GEORGIA CAN WIN. GEORGIA WILL WIN IT*S GREAT TO BE A GEORGIA BULLDAWG!!!!!!!!
BUCCADAWG
October 24th, 2012
9:18 pm
If some of you guys think yo u are members of the DAWG NATION take your front running arses and hit the bricks .The dawgs will win even with all the doom and gloom you losers are trying too spread.
AceDawg
October 24th, 2012
9:57 pm
It’s fun to think good things, and yes, as the week goes, I feel better and better about the Dawgs having a fighting chance. I’ll always have a feeling that UGA might win – as anyone should if they are actually a fan – but I do know to be cautious and promise myself well ahead of time to commit to the reality that UGA continually has problems with UF like the Braves have problems with ANYONE in the postseason. Enough with the complaints though – we should as UGA fans hate the Gators and that’s it. Go Dawgs.
Blip7
October 24th, 2012
10:19 pm
Gurley and Marshall will run wild against the overrated florida D—look for some long TD runs! Ga 30 fla 13! Dogs pull the upset and win the SEC east! Bama is next!!!!
Stephen
October 24th, 2012
10:45 pm
Unfortunately, I think that complete game Bradley refers to was against Vandy.
Truthiness
October 25th, 2012
12:54 am
UGA and Florida athletes match up pretty good, but the parity ends there. Florida’s coaches are much more inventive in how they use their talent. There’s no reason to believe Murray’s big-game failings will end. UGA’s lack of experience on the O line and softness on the D line will hurt badly. And finally, special teams bone-headed plays will give Florida at least 10 points. Florida easily beats the spread.
Phil
October 25th, 2012
7:40 am
AceDawg
I’m a fan real fan also, nobody jumps higher or yells louder during a game, just ask my wife, I scare her all the tme. Just being realistic here though.
But looking at this game, our defense will get shredded. We couldn’t stop Buffalo or Kentucky, they ran all over us. No reason to believe we can stop Florida’s backs. Their wide receievers can take a short dump off pass and break it 70 yards. We can’t tackle at all. Their QB will kill us with runs on 3rd down to pick up the 1st down, just like the SC game. Florida will score 45 in my opinion.
Our only chance is to hang with them on offense and win like a 49-45 type of game. That’s our only hope. If Murray has a good game it’s possible. But we all know how these big games have turned out the last 4 years or so, we flop every time. I don’t see that changing under Richt.
Vegas Vic
October 25th, 2012
8:40 am
Florida wins by 30+ points.
Clarabelle
October 25th, 2012
8:48 am
Speaking of Pollyannish, Chuck Dowdle is a Pollyannish douche bag. He tries to put positive words in CMR’s mouth during interviews instead of letting the coach speak what comes to mind.
——————————————
Thank you. Somebody needed to say that. Dowdle is just a 2nd rate shill at best.
BeanDog
October 25th, 2012
8:56 am
Relax—fla will be overconfident, expecting an easy win. Plus, they haven’t played a QB yet as good as Murray—who is the best in the SEC–he will light up the fla secondary with big plays. Dogs win by 13—27-14!
Gatorzone
October 25th, 2012
2:46 pm
Florida will NOT be overconfident! Muschamp will not allow that. Bean, you may be right about murray, but Manzel and Bray are pretty good QB’s, and if I recall, that kid Shaw did a number on your defense as well, so UF has played a few pretty good QB’s.
Bottom line though will be in the second half when Florida breaks UGa’s will. It has happened EVERY game this year. Their defense and Oline will just beat on you and grind you until you eventually give in…
FRED
October 25th, 2012
6:04 pm
You have got to be kidding.You follow this team for a living and you think UGA will win What a joke you are. UGA will loose by at least 21pts. This game will be like a high school team playing in the SEC. Come on Bradley get real!!!!
Sir James Bond
October 26th, 2012
1:49 pm
UGA Can win if the Fla team bus breaks down in the twilight zone on the way to the game
die hard bulldog
October 26th, 2012
2:54 pm
I just hope we don’t have to leave the stadium by half time ….
Sun Devil Dave
October 26th, 2012
6:42 pm
Mark, Mark, Mark. Advice for you – Lay off the whacky weed – it is imparing your mental capability.
Sun Devil Dave
October 26th, 2012
6:45 pm
Leave at halftime? I’m not even going to watch on TV – No sense in wasting three hours. LOLOL
jaxdawgfan
October 26th, 2012
9:32 pm
I predict the winds from the fringes of Sandy will blow all PAT’s into the center of the uprights instead of hitting them… assuming we get the chance to kick any.
eddie willers
October 27th, 2012
8:20 pm
You wuz right!
Sun Devil Dave
October 27th, 2012
8:35 pm
Well Mark – Starting to cook my crow. I prefer it well done if you don’t mind but will eat it raw if you decide to serve it that way. Dawgs surprised me.
Z dawg
October 27th, 2012
8:38 pm
Our prayers are with marcus lattimore and his family. We wish him well.
Congrats dawns, coaches and the bulldog nation for beating gators. Go dawgs
JD
October 27th, 2012
8:56 pm
Mark, congratulations on the prediction which you made before the season started. Your looking very smart right now.
Mark Bradley
October 27th, 2012
9:14 pm
Thanks, folks. This once, I got lucky
Ed
October 27th, 2012
10:50 pm
I was proven wrong, didn’t think this team had the cajones to beat a tough, physical team like Florida. And I have never been happier to be wrong! How Bout Them Dawgs!
Lakedawg
October 27th, 2012
11:22 pm
Flat
tire, what say you big mouth?
FLA DAWG
October 28th, 2012
9:01 am
Ok Dawg Nation and Mark,
Here I am to gladly take all the grief you want to heap on me. I picked The Dawgs to lose in a big way – by 35 points.
I happily admit I was wrong. The D showed up to play and what a game it was! The Florida O helped our Dawgs by turning the ball over (6 times?) repeatedly. Not sure why it took Infighting on the D squad to generate some emotion but you could see the players and even Richt full of peeandvinegar!
Sadly, our D gave The Dawgs to put this game away multiple times but Bobo’s playcalling was absolutely awful. Murray had a lousy game until the end. I don’t think we converted a first down until the fourth qtr. Credit Florida D but debit Bobo and Murray.
The deal is not sealed but with wins over Ole Miss, Auburn, Ga So and Ga Tech we’ll have had only one loss going into the SECC Game. If that happens then The Dawgs have a shot at something special. Bama looks too good to lose in my opinion but I’ve obviously been wrong before.
Mark, how the heck did you (and a couple of others) pick our Dawgs to win this!?
FLA DAWG
October 28th, 2012
9:05 am
I was also wrong about Muschamp. He’s proven himself to be a DC not an HC. The guy was going to have an aneuism on the sideline. He looked like a little boy who didn’t get his ice cream for dessert.
I hope he stays at UF. If he loses to UGA again next year UF will unload him fast though.
Kelvin
October 29th, 2012
10:17 am
Mark, you were right. I thought Georgia would get slaughtered on Saturday. Boy was I wrong! I am glad to be wrong. So I came back on here to give you your props. You called it. I along with many others thought you were smoking something illegal. Georgia winning along with the Falcons winning, I can’t remember a Monday like this in a long time. Good job!
fan
October 29th, 2012
11:04 am
Wow over 400 comments before the game and only 10 after!! To the gayor, tech, and the rest of non UGA fans I got two words for ya, SUCK IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 2 in a row!!!!!!
Red-N-Black
October 29th, 2012
5:02 pm
Chris
October 30th, 2012
3:22 am
FRED who said “You have got to be kidding.You follow this team for a living and you think UGA will win What a joke you are. UGA will loose by at least 21pts. This game will be like a high school team playing in the SEC. Come on Bradley get real!!!!” never bothered to comment after the game I see…. go figure. Good Call Mr. Bradley.
Chris
October 30th, 2012
3:26 am
That could explain why Mr. Bradley follows this stuff for a living and FRED makes posts that are wrong and never gives props admitting he was wrong…one thing I can say about Bradley in many years following him is when he is wrong he owns up to it and laughs about how bad he is at predicting this stuff. This year though (and last too) Mr. Bradley has been spot on in regards to the Dawgs.