The Falcons are 6-0, but certain other numbers don’t add up
Mike Smith and Falcons VP of communications Reggie Roberts exit to check the stats. (AP photo)
There’s only one unbeaten NFL team, and it’s based in Flowery Branch. And we know, courtesy of Bill Parcells, that in the NFL you’re as good as your record says you are, which would suggest that the Falcons are flat-out great. But here’s where we run the numbers, and numbers, as we also know, can be pesky things.
The biggest number, duh, is 6-0. The Falcons have never been undefeated this deep into a season in their previous 46 years of doing business. But here’s another number: 11-21. That’s the combined record of the six teams the Falcons have beaten. Of those six, only San Diego is above .500. (And the 3-2 Chargers play Denver on Monday night.) This wasn’t entirely unexpected. The Falcons’ schedule always seemed tougher on the far side of the bye week. To look again, however, is to wonder.
We all thought Philadelphia and Dallas and New Orleans — the Falcons’ next three opponents — would be stout. The Eagles are 3-3, the Cowboys 2-3, the Saints 1-4. Check now and you’ll see that the Falcons are scheduled to play only two more games against teams that currently hold a winning record, and both of those games (against the Cardinals and the Giants) will be played here.
Yes, this is all subject to sudden change. Nobody expects the Saints to finish 4-12, and nobody expects Philly and Dallas and Detroit to sputter forever. But the 6-0 Falcons could stand a test, and it might be a while before another arrives.
Why does a 6-0 team require testing? Because, if you check the stats, the Falcons don’t look 6-0 good. They look, on paper if not on the field, not quite as imposing the 10-6 Falcons of last season.
The 2012 Falcons rank 15th in total offense, down from 10th in 2011. This team is 21st in total defense, down from 12th last season. A year ago they were eighth in passing, 17th in rushing; this year they’re 10th and 25th. Last season they were 20th in passing defense, sixth in rushing defense; these Birds are 11th and 27th. For those keeping score, the 2012 Falcons have improved over 2011 in exactly one of those six major categories.
Figure Filberts insist the most important football stat is Yards Per Pass Attempt. The Falcons have improved from 7.3 YPA to 7.4 on offense, while opponents’ YPA has risen from 7.2 to 7.6. (The offensive number ranks 15th in the league, the defensive one 21st.) On the bright side, the Falcons have improved their third-down conversion percentage all the way around: The defense ranks 21st this year, up from 28th in 2011; the offense ranks fifth, up from sixth.
If you’re looking for numbers to support 6-0, start here: The Falcons are tied with New England for the NFL lead in turnover margin, and they’ve been called for the fewest penalties of any team. (They were fifth and 10th last season.) New coordinators Dirk Koetter and Mike Nolan haven’t had a transforming effect on the yardage-based stats, but the impression — and it’s borne out by these key indices — is of a better-coached team. More concrete indicators: The Falcons are scoring 3.4 more points and yielding 3.1 fewer points than they did under 2011 management.
Here we pause for an emphatic disclaimer, offered by Richard Seymour, the Oakland defensive tackle who was once a New England Patriot (and before that a Georgia Bulldog). After the Raiders outgained the Falcons 474 yards to 286 but lost 23-20, Seymour told reporters: “I’ve done a lot of different things in my career in wins where statistically it all doesn’t line up. But stats are for losers. If you want to pay attention to statistics, go ahead. The only stat that matters is wins and losses.”
That’s true. Also true is this: The 11-5 Falcons of 2008 were beaten in the playoffs by the 9-7 Cardinals; the 13-3 Falcons of 2010 were upset in the playoffs by the 10-6 Packers, and the 10-6 Falcons of 2011 were undone by the 9-7 Giants. So sometimes you aren’t quite what your record says you are.
And what does this team’s architect say? This was general manager Thomas Dimitroff, speaking Monday morning: “We’re an evolving team that is 6-0. We’re a team that has shown a lot of resilience, and that’s an indication that we’ve matured.”
It is. The nice thing about winning all the time is that it becomes second nature. At winning, these Falcons are batting 1.000.
Further reading: This week’s Heat Check, with the Falcons chief among our local hotties.
By Mark Bradley
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The Falcons are 6-0, but certain other numbers don’t add up | football-feed.com
October 15th, 2012
5:49 pm
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Jaded
October 15th, 2012
5:52 pm
The truth is, we have played a very weak schedule. I don’t think we’re the best team in football, but I do think if we get home-field advantage in the playoffs we have as good a shot as anybody at coming out of the NFC.
As always, it comes down to matchups. The Packers and Giants can beat us in the Dome in January. I’d love our chances against anyone else.
LeRoy
October 15th, 2012
5:57 pm
Fast forward- Matt Bryant kicks the winning field goal to give the Falcons the Super Bowl win!
I hope they can stay healthy!
Better start getting your Super Bowl tickets now!
Andy
October 15th, 2012
6:04 pm
This is a prime example of why Atlanta has one of the worst reputations nationally as far as fan base goes. Why in the heck would you be bagging on a 6-0 Falcons team? Enjoy it. No one is proclaiming them as world beaters. They have been in some bad spots and found a way to win. “Great teams find a way to win.” If you are a true Falcons fan, try to find the positive vs the negative in a 6-0 start. Jeeze, if I read one more article condemning the Falcons about anything I will puke. How about we just enjoy the moment.?
LeRoy
October 15th, 2012
6:18 pm
The other Matt has earned his paycheck!
Ray
October 15th, 2012
6:19 pm
I think our fortunes turn out for the better this year.
Maybe not Superbowl, but Deep Playoff Run.
Still though got to admit I think I posted this on another blog.
Who ever thought coming into 2012 Season……………….
1. AFC would be this bad after 6 weeks
2. Texans would be 5-0 now 5-1, but still tough
3. Falcons at 6-0
4. Cards above .500 the way they dogged Kevin Kolb out
5. Seahawks?????
6. Vikings?????
??? = their actually not bad
Seriously this year is probably the most different year in some time.
Ray
October 15th, 2012
6:24 pm
Something else for you people I know being 6-0 is fun, but one week at a time my friends. Not kidding some of y’all saying Super Bowl, but damn it(excuse the lang) we did this back in 2010 and got our butts kick by Green Bay something serious.
robertussen
October 15th, 2012
6:26 pm
here’s a stat andy reid is undefeated after the bye week. the eagles are also on a bye. lets hope we can break his streak and coach smith can break the franchise win record in the same game, also if tony gonzalez gets a td that will be number 100 for him
Alternate Reality
October 15th, 2012
6:53 pm
Instead of getting worked up about being 6-0, I prefer to look at it from the standpoint of the overall season. If you were to check off the expected wins and losses before the season started, would you say that we should have won these games? Maybe 5 of the 6? In the big picture, that’s what counts (at least until the playoffs start) – the Falcons have taken care of business so far.
1lovefalcons20
October 15th, 2012
7:02 pm
only in Atlanta would the hometown newspaper have something negative to say about our hometown football team even though they are undefeated…enjoy and praise the falcons…in a town where the negatives outweigh the positives..the falcons give this crime infested,congested,racialy divided city something to feel good about!!!!!!!!i,m proud of the falcons
Gamer
October 15th, 2012
7:04 pm
TAKE THE 6-0…….FIVE MORE WINS SHOULD CEMENT NFC SOUTH DIVISION TITLE.
Ray
October 15th, 2012
7:05 pm
@ Alternate Reality
I don’t know we look at these teams that we beat and don’t give them enough credit. The media looks at a team like 1-4 Raiders and say their garbage and so do we.
In reality that’s not true like people have said this is the NFL not CFB(Although I do love watching)
Where in CFB Alabama might beat the crap out of Michigan you’re not guaranteed a win in the NFL.
I mean who would have thought that NYG marches back to Candlestick Park and do what they did to SF?
Same thing with Green Bay who’d have thought they’d beat Texans that bad?
We undersell a lot of teams, but Raiders got the RB’s, a solid QB, and some nice weapons on defense, and even an okay WR corps.
Like someone said wasn’t NE dead last in pass defense yet made it to the Superbowl?
Mr. Mustard
October 15th, 2012
7:30 pm
I repeatedly have said the Falcons’” system” is a key component of their regular-season good fortune. Dimitroff’s term as GM is impressive and I still believe he and Arthur Blank will get us to elite status where we do win some Super Bowls, as well as have competitive teams each year.
I think it valid to compare Matt Ryan’s career so far to Eli Manning’s because it does take years to master the quaterback position in the NFL. This is Ryan’s fifth year, and he should be at the peak physcially and knowledgably.
But yesterday’s performance against the Raiders (their same, old, lack of protection, failure to cover on third downs and inability to run the freaking ball) gave me visions of ghosts of recent playoffs past.
Yesterday’s win over Oakland worries me more than any other moment in the Dimitroff era. I know, but this win made me angry oddly enough. The Falcons I saw will fold in the playoffs.
The “system” may be the bain of Dimitroff, and what I mean is that he may count too much on the system with character measures, cross-training athletes, using middle round draft choices for our offensive line and statistical decision making with punt returns, kickoff returns and quarterback feet first slides.
Also, are they coached to go down when touched? I cannot remember a play when White, or Jones breaks a tackle, runs through a crowd and runs after the catch. They seem to fall as soon as touched. Same with our punt returners, they seem to want to let the ball bounce, playing the percentages of getting the ball at the twenty, avoiding mistakes.
Against Green Bay, New York and Arizona the Falcons are nearly suffocated from start to finish. Why?
Why are there STILL wide open slot receivers on third downs, during crucial times? Of course it will happen some, but there is a pattern here. Playing zone too much? Poor play calling on D?
The system seems to play percentages – put the best talent on the field available that fit the mold of character and football knowledge.
Yet the system does not seemingly account for heart, for being in the “game-flow”. Why don’t we have a great offensive line yet? Why do they collapse when against aggressive defensive schemes?
Why does Turner, with his great big thighs fall down when touched behind the line?
When will Turner create something for his team? Yes he needs holes, but can’t we ask for him to every once in awhile help out and not need a hole wider than the Grand Canyon?
I think Roddy White is a hall of famer and clutch. But when does he bust a tackle, then put his shoulder down and bust another one? They seem to be told to go down or run out of bounds.
Our defense is good, but yesterday yet again, they were confused and blew coverage with the game on the line. They again seemed surprised that the slot receiver ran underneath the zone.
What I am saying is, as Mr. Bradley said so wisely last year, this team seems to be “Corporate Faire”.
A team built on intelligent planning, excellent long-term vision and foundation and a template of “play it safe” mode and the percentages will turn in their favor. Use good milk-drinking all American boys who will not implode on or off the field.
Something is lacking within the system though, and it seems to be players who want the ball. Players who have the will to win, who will bust that tackle, run head on against a linebacker to get that extra yard when we have to have it.
I am not saying be stupid and dive head first each and every time, it is a long season. But when they have to have it, when they are in the playoffs against the New York Giants for example, they seem to be nice boys who are not equipped to prevail in a street fight.
I love the Falcons, and I support Thomas Dimitroff. Falcons’ franchise records are falling like leaves in fall with his stewardship.
With that said, the system which may well win us championships may also be lacking a significant component in their football spreadsheet organization.
Football. Street. Toughness.
This is American football and intelligence and spreadsheets will get you far. Without muscle, without the guys who will go gonzo to do anything to win during crunch time you will have what we seem to have.
The system showed up yesterday like a powerpoint presentation in a conference room. Lots of good hard working people, who will never break from the group-think because corporations don’t encourage or tolerate individual that go outside the corporate culture. Like a corporation, they don’t tolerate individualism or emotionalism.
Spreadsheet football.
truthbtold
October 15th, 2012
7:53 pm
I love The Falcons but our defense is as soft as cotton in the middle. Everyone can run on this defense. We have some of the worst tackling in the league. Matt Ryan can’t scramble, and struggles mightily to get off those dink and donk passes that we live and die by. We should be airing it out like Aarron Rogers did last night against the Texans. To get to the next level – The offense is going to need to step the game. We have the tools, but the coaching is questionable sometimes.
Gman 84
October 15th, 2012
8:00 pm
Completely understand that the Falcons are not dominant statistically, but winning consistently in the NFL is extremely difficult. It is still harder to win on the road, which these Falcons have done 3 times.
Look at the teams that conventional wisdom would suggest are better than the Falcons. They’ve all failed a test or two.
You hate to see them have to pull out miracle wins against the Panthers and Raiders but they make those miracles look routine. They are increasingly calm, confident and resilient.
Time will tell if they are evolving into a special team or just slightly better than the mediocrity they’ve beaten. They’ve put themselves in great position to grow into what they want to become. If they win their home games and pick up roadies against the Bucs and Panthers, they will be 13-3 and home throughout the playoffs.
Hillbilly D
October 15th, 2012
8:22 pm
In my opinion, that OL is still weak and it’s going to show up when they play some good teams. They better improve their tackling, too.
KG5
October 15th, 2012
8:36 pm
Falcons made a bunch of mental mistakes that almost cost them the game late. One was McClain. If he catches the ball and falls down, the game is over. Second, Quizz needs to get out of bounds, forget getting an extra yard or two. Falcons had to waste a timeout. As for Mr. Mustard, all the defenses are taught to strip the ball. One defender holds up the ball carrier and others come in to strip the ball.
ChipperisGod
October 15th, 2012
8:37 pm
@Millsap
“I don’t see what this team doesn’t see in Hinske?”
Hinske. Great guy, used to be a solid ballplayer. He is atrocious now. Can’t hit worth anything and shouldn’t be on the team next year. Did you see his average this year? Under 200. I know he didn’t get as many opportunities as other guys, but even still. Can’t see the validity in your argument when it seemed like Hinske struck out every time he went up there.
Uggla will be here next year whether anyone likes it or not. Wren desperately wants to see his investment pay off, will it? So far it has not. I hope it does though.
I’d let Bourn go for anything more than 7 a year. Great D and speed, but he breaks down over the course of the year. Loved watching him play, but he struck out too much and faded down the stretch.
Anyways, back on the Falcons, I agree with everything Mark said just about. We’ve got to especially clean up the run D. An SEC team could run through us right now. Still, gotta love being 6-0 and the guys have been resilient and given it maximum effort. Our pass coverage is good despite the yardage given up, but if we can just clean up the run D, we should be ok.
Sky is the limit for this team. I think they can run with anyone, but as someone else said, the next three weeks will tell us what kind of team the Falcons are. Nay, that big game against the Giants in November will if those games do not.
Go Falcons/Hawks/Braves!
Arno
October 15th, 2012
8:45 pm
You can have your statistics. I’ll take how Ryan led the team to the wins over Carolina and Oakland after the team sputtered for 58 minutes. Outstanding.
Joe
October 15th, 2012
9:55 pm
This 6-0 thing has been diced and chopped all day on TV, as a long tiime Falcon fan I plan to just enjoy the moment. I do not think anyone really think of going undefeated from season to season, however I for one am not going to let others who are not Falcons fans spoil our moment, plus all teams has issues it not just the Birds.
AlanFalcon
October 15th, 2012
10:11 pm
Face it the Falcons are 6-0, you’ve never been able to say that so it speaks for something !!!!!!!!!!!!
Despite Win, Raiders Prove That Falcons Are Still Not Class of NFL | Scripting4You Blog
October 15th, 2012
10:30 pm
[...] as Mark Bradley of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution recently pointed out, if you look a little more closely at the Falcons' numbers this season they aren't exactly [...]
Najeh Davenpoop
October 15th, 2012
10:52 pm
Wins and losses are great for telling you what has already happened. The Falcons deserved every one of their 6 wins so far. But stats are a lot better for telling you what is likely to happen in the future. Let’s face it, whether this season is a success or a failure depends entirely on what they do in the playoffs. The stats don’t say great things about their ability to beat playoff-caliber teams. Doesn’t mean they can’t, but it is fair to say they need to continue improving.
Puma
October 15th, 2012
11:22 pm
So who is the best team in NFL? No one knows! Two days ago, everyone would have said Texans, doubt they would say that now. Like others have said on here, the worst teams just are not that much worse than the best teams anymore, so take your wins when you can get them because I am sure there will come a game when we “deserve” to win and don’t.
SecondSage
October 16th, 2012
2:46 am
The Falcons test came during the Redskins game. That game defined their season. They’ll be o.k this year. the 85 Bears won ugly as well as the blowouts. I’m a Bears fan. This year’s Falcons have a different character.
NOTSO Fast
October 16th, 2012
6:57 am
I rather you are having to write that while we are 6 and 0, we really shouldn’t be, than we are the best 3 and 3 team.
JJ
October 16th, 2012
7:09 am
Stats ARE for losers…….ESPECIALLY the total offense and defense stats. Yards are meaningless. The only stats that truly matter are 6-0 and points scored / allowed (which btw, the Falcons rank 5th in pts scored, 7th in pts allowed, and 1st in pt diff).
We can all use our eyes and see that they are not perfect on the field….not even close. They need to continue to improve, but they are still the only 6-0 team which says a lot. Easy schedule or not, they play who is on it and so far they are unbeaten. I’ll take it.
Larry
October 16th, 2012
7:18 am
Mark,
Here’s a stat for you. If the Falcons go just 5-5 here on out they’ll finish 11-5 and most assuredly in the playoffs. As as we’ve seen the past several Super Bowls, the team that gets hot–regardlesss of their record–in the playoffs will win a Super Bowl. Go check the regular season stats of the New York Giants last season with their 9-7 record and get back to us with a real comparison.
Stop being overly negative…this feeds the half glass empty and troll crowd and make this a very depressing thread.
Before I go, here’s a stat for you: 6-0. This is called a perfect record and this record today is the #1 stat in the NFL after 6 weeks…put that in your pipe and smoke it!
Esquire
October 16th, 2012
7:35 am
@Larry
October 16th, 2012
7:18 am
******************************************
I agree, it was almost like the Giants didn’t even play at 110% until the playoffs, they had a lot left in the tank.
Rodster
October 16th, 2012
7:54 am
Analysis is pretty much conjecture. Let’s be happy with their success.
Larry
October 16th, 2012
7:55 am
Najeh: “But stats are a lot better for telling you what is likely to happen in the future.”
Oh really?
So did you look at the sixth game stats of the 2008 Cardinals and predict they’d nearly win the Super Bowl? Did you look at the six game stats and predict the 10-6 Packers would destroy everyone in the 2010 postseason? The 9-7 Giants? Or in baseball, I’m sure you predicted the team with a losing record at midseason, finishing only 84-78, the 2011 Cardinals would win the World Series.
The stats indicate that there are things that have happened previously that need addressing; the starts are not always a true and accurate predictor of the future. The Packers and Patriots are 3-3 with medicocre stats after six games. How much would you like to bet me that neither will finish .500?
oldsarge99
October 16th, 2012
8:07 am
The Falcons look good on the field against inferior opponents. They will be eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.
MARK
October 16th, 2012
8:10 am
But yet they keep on winning. Can’t say anything good about them can you ? I’m not a coach but i do watch football and i’ve been watching our Falcons since the 60’s and i know a good team when i see one and these Falcons have got a good team. You think this 6 – 0 came overnight oh no they been working on this for the last four years. Give them a break Bradley, sure the Falcons have area’s they need to work on but we’re no longer a team that gonna get push around. Go Falcons we love yall in Wrightsville , Ga. !!!
Delbert D.
October 16th, 2012
8:11 am
Who is demonstrably better?
Shug
October 16th, 2012
8:11 am
The Falcons picked the perfect season to be great. It seems the league’s traditional powers are in transition or having down years. 19-0 is attainable!
Getaway
October 16th, 2012
8:47 am
Again, it bares repeating…
Falcons offense ranked 15th, but have SCORED the 6th MOST points.
Defense ranked 21st, but have surrendered 6th FEWEST points.
Last year they weren’t in the top 10 in either point category.
Interestingly, the Bears are the only team that has scored more points per game, while surrendering few points. But they have also played one less game.
Getaway
October 16th, 2012
8:55 am
the above is avgerage Points per Game.
PMC
October 16th, 2012
9:03 am
We should also note that they are 6-0 mostly without thier best cornerback on the team, and Julio Jones essentially missed the Carolina game with that hand injury.
True Falcon Fan
October 16th, 2012
9:09 am
Folks, WINNING, sometimes doesn’t look good, granted this game was “UGLY”! Get over it — this Falcons team is good, are they great “NOT YET”. Matt Ryan had a bad game, “PERIOD”. We were due for bad & ugly.
Go Falcons — Eaglettes next
dean
October 16th, 2012
9:41 am
Pamela @ 3:12 yesterday, in the words of Bobby Bowden, “Just like a woman. Anybody else have a question. Except her.”
Granted, Pamela made a statement versus a question, but if not for good QB play at critical times, Bryant never gets the opportunity.
colelinski
October 16th, 2012
10:01 am
Every win will just be icing on the cake.
Talmadge Shirley
October 16th, 2012
10:33 am
I am like the rest of the Falcon Nation, I am just glad to see them on top for a while. I think this team is for real and I am going to enjoy every game of it! It is time for the Falcons to shine, throw your
numbers out the door.
Go Falcons!
btwarren
October 16th, 2012
10:58 am
It is better to be 6-0 with things to fix than 3-3 with things to fix. The falcons have won these games because they are winning the turnover battle and they are not killing themselves with penalties. Penalties and turnovers kill and the falcons are not doing that. Does that make them a great team, no but it does make then focused and determined and adds to their confidence. A confident, focused and determined team is hard to beat.
brandonlee49
October 16th, 2012
11:47 am
Mark has certainly spoken the truth. A Team’s Record is Only as good as it’s Next Game.
If the Falcons can Pull-off Winning two of their Next Three, The Cowboys are certainly Nowhere Near being Contenders, but Eagles and Saints Will be Bonifide Tests of whether the Falcons are Respectfully held, or Not.
Ivan
October 16th, 2012
12:24 pm
I’m starting to think the Eagles aren’t going to be that tough. I kind of figured they would “step up” against the Falcons, and avoid the INTs and fumbles and be a really good game.
But now they just fired their DC. (cuz he was responsible for the Offensive problems they’ve had this year. /shrug). Their franchise is full of chaos, inconsistency, and doubt. The talent isn’t playing very talented, and now the coaches and scurrying to try to keep the team in tact………
……Meanwhile, all Coach Smith has to do is rest his players, put his foot upside the O-line, and go to work on the gameplan.
Submariner683
October 16th, 2012
12:54 pm
@Pamela “Trust me the Falcons will NOT pass round 1 of the playoffs. They only did that once years, years, years ago when they went to the Superbowl and lost horribly.”
Your statement is less than factual. The Falcons don’t have a lot of success both regular season or post season. They do however own two playoff wins since the Superbowl season. They beat Green Bay in 2002 on the road. It was the first time Green Bay lost in post season at home when the temperature was that low. They lost the next round to Philadelphia. In 2004 they beat the Rams in the first round and lost in the NFC championship to Philadelphia, once again.
ImGumbyD**MIT
October 16th, 2012
1:07 pm
So changing cordinators has hurt the team stat wise. Hmmmmm…I’m trying not to let that bother me.
drew
October 16th, 2012
1:33 pm
Good points Mark. The turnover and penalty disparities have us 6-0 instead of 3-3. And those two stats tend to even out as the season progresses. I love the 6-0 stat, but it’s kinda propped up on a shaky foundation. And I know it’s a pass first league now, but 48 yards rushing ain’t gonna cut it.
And how many times was Matt Ryan knocked-down last Sunday? I’ve always been impressed with his “Timex factor”, but I don’t think he’ll last the season without better protection.
DieHardFalconsFan!!!!
October 16th, 2012
1:57 pm
People can say whatever they want about the falcons. We just need to watch and see how they do the rest of the season. No matter how well they play there will always be hatters! We will win a playoff game this year and more! GO FALCONS!!!!!
DawgNole
October 16th, 2012
2:20 pm
Submariner683
October 16th, 2012
12:54 pm
@Pamela “Trust me the Falcons will NOT pass round 1 of the playoffs. They only did that once years, years, years ago when they went to the Superbowl and lost horribly.”
Your statement is less than factual. The Falcons don’t have a lot of success both regular season or post season. They do however own two playoff wins since the Superbowl season.
_____________________
“Less than factual” is putting it mildly. The Falcons also had a couple of playoff wins before that Super Bowl appearance in ‘98.
Of course, you knew when Pamela began her lie with “Trust me,” that it would be less than factual.