Baseball’s postseason: It’s fun, but what does it all mean?
Here they go again: Wild-card Cardinals refuse to lose. (AP/Post-Dispatch photo by Chris Lee)
Time was, the World Series represented and rewarded excellence. At worst, the champion of baseball was the team that finished first in its league over a six-month season. Even when there was a perceived upset, it wasn’t Douglas over Tyson. The 97-win Giants unhorsed the 111-win Indians in 1954, but the Giants had Willie Mays.The Pirates won in 1960 despite being outscored 55-27 by the Yankees, but Pittsburgh had won 95 games to New York’s 97. Heck, the Miracle Mets were 100-game winners.
But the playoffs expanded in 1969, the year those Mets won it all, and baseball’s postseason changed. From 1944 through 1968, the team that had baseball’s best record won the World Series 13 times in 25 years (52 percent). After the two league championship series were added in ‘69, the World Series was won by the team with baseball’s best record seven times in 25 years (28 percent). And then, once the wild card arrived, everything went nuts.
Since 1995, a wild card has won the World Series five times (31.3 percent); the team with baseball’s best record has won three times (18.8 percent). Contrast this with the NBA, which features 16 playoff qualifiers and therefore more variables: Over its past 16 seasons, the NBA team with the best regular-season record has won seven times (43.8 percent).
And now the baseball postseason has grown again, if only just. Beginning this season, a second wild card was added in each league, and baseball’s method of accommodation — actually, “method” might be too kind a word — was to jam the wild cards into a play-in game and see what shook out. Almost inevitably, what happened was that the two wild cards with the lesser record (i.e., the two who wouldn’t have qualified a year ago) won. Sure enough, the wild-card Cardinals surged from six runs behind to eliminate the Nationals, who owned baseball’s best record.
Thus have three of the top four seeds already been dismissed. Presumably this is the way baseball wants it. Wild! Wacky! Great TV! But I’m not sure greatness has much to do with postseason baseball anymore. It isn’t just that the best team doesn’t always win; it’s that the best team almost never wins.
After his 94-68 Braves were eliminated by the 88-74 Cardinals in the play-in game, manager Fredi Gonzalez said: “You’ve got to judge a team over the 162-game season.” And you do, or at least you should. Trouble is, MLB doesn’t hand out a trophy after the 162nd game. The big trophy goes to team that wins 11 (or 12 now, in the case of the wild card) postseason games, and that race to 11 (or 12) is more a function of fortune than skill.
The Oakland general manager Billy Beane, whose success at building good teams on a shoestring was chronicled by Michael Lewis in “Moneyball,” has seen his Oakland A’s reach the playoffs six times. Only once has Beane’s team survived Round 1. Five times it has been eliminated in the fifth game of the best-of-five Division Series, the latest coming Thursday night. As Beane famously said in “Moneyball”: “My [stuff] doesn’t work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is [fickle] luck.”
Before we write that off as a loser’s lament, let’s note that a famous winner might agree. Tony La Russa won two World Series with St. Louis, but he had six Cardinal teams that won more games than his Series winners of 2006 (83-78) and 2011 (90-72). Including his tenure with the White Sox and the pre-Beane A’s, La Russa managed nine teams that won 95 or more games. Eight of those did not win the World Series.
In a year that has seen all four Division Series go the distance, it might sound silly to quibble with the system. But you’d like to think all this sound and fury leads to something meaningful, as opposed to noise for noise’s sake. You’d like to think excellence would, in the end, find its reward, but recent history suggests it won’t. The 2011 Cardinals were crowned champions of baseball, but even the reddest of Redbird fans would be reluctant to describe that as a great team.
Instead it was a pretty good team that got hot at the right time, which has become the way of October. Of the past 16 Series winners, nine won fewer regular-season games than the 2012 Braves. Of the 11 National League teams to win 100 games in the wild-card era, not one took the World Series. But the Marlins, who have yet to finish first in their division, have done it twice.
By Mark Bradley
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136 comments Add your comment
Stinger 2
October 13th, 2012
6:04 pm
Clusters: @12:45. Well now you have resorted to threats to me. I am not afraid of you and any threat you make such as the one like eviscerating me. I can give my opinions about what you say like you call me names such as creepy and stalker. The difference is I will not lower myself to your game of name calling.
Since you have seemingly settled in on comparing the Cardinals to the Braves, it appears we will hear the same old retoricfor a while. Meanwhile Chipper is gone so maybe you will find a new whipping boy besides him or Uggla or Fredi.
Sonny Clusters
October 13th, 2012
6:09 pm
Yep, you’re the new one, Stalker boy. Now, we was shocked to read that you are a grandparent because of your juvenile posts and underdeveloped thoughts. We don’t like to pick on anybody’s granddaddy so we are going to cut you some slack and hope you will disappear. You should look up eviscerate and while you are doing it look up stalker. GW Ridgeway said he wasn’t a stalker and look how that turned out. As for creepy . . . you just are. Sorry.
Stinger 2
October 13th, 2012
6:14 pm
Clusters: One other mistake today in addition to saying the Yankees will play in the NLCS. You gushed about how great a hire Cleveland made by getting Francona. Apparentlyyou do keep up with what happens on other teams. Francona was fired by the Red Sox after the real EPIC Collapse.Yes they blew a bigger lead than the Braves last year. Another reason he was fired was because he lost control of the team and allowed pitchers to eat fried chicken and drink beer in the clubhouse during games. If you would prefer him over Fredi go root for the Indians as your AL team while you make the Cardinals the team you love in the NL.
derek k
October 13th, 2012
6:16 pm
Mark, Thanks
I think this would be kinda cool 2 different scenarios:
Scenario 1
WC1 vs WC2 best of 3
WC winner plays #1 seed best of 3
2 vs 3 best of 5
LCS best of 5
World Series 7
Scenario 2)
WC1 vs WC2 best of 3
WC winner vs #1 seed best of 5
2 vs 3 best of 5
LCS best of 5
WS 7
Idk lots of different ways i guess i just think the one game play in is stupid anyone can get lucky and run the table.
Also do you think we might trade for a 3b such as Wright?
Hillbilly D
October 13th, 2012
6:37 pm
After 46 years, the Expos make the playoffs for the second time, and have just blown a 6-0 lead to the Cards in game 5. The Montreal curse lives!
The Montreal Expos went to the NLCS in 1981. They also had the best record in baseball in 1994 before the strike. They might have made it that year, as well.
Stinger 2
October 13th, 2012
6:40 pm
Clusters: Got to end my blogging today. In closing, I hope I did not cause too much embarassment to you by pointing out the glaring mistakes or errors you made about the Yankees and Cleveland with Francona. I also have bad days as we all do. I realize you were extremely busy with all of you negative posting about the Braves today. This could have been a contributing factor.
Sonny Clusters
October 13th, 2012
6:52 pm
Somebody has a Clusters Obsession and we wish it was a good looking woman instead of somebody’s grandpa who must be a little senile judging from his posts on here. We thought about moving over to another blog but he just follows us there. We’re pretty sure we’d never socialize with somebody like that and we don’t especially enjoy blogging with him but he has something to say about everything we say on here. As for having a “right” to say what he wishes maybe somebody should tell him this is a baseball blog and not a social register. Talk about a busybody minding somebody else’s business . . . he’s trying to be our mama and tell us what to think and how to act and what to post and we can see from his drivel over the past few months that he missed about every single prediction about the Braves and the post-season. Some baseball guy. Now, baseball . . . we think there are at least a few teams still playing right now and they would seem to be the ones likely to win the pennants and one of them the World Series. The Braves have gone to the house.
Dakota
October 13th, 2012
8:32 pm
Uhhh Mark, a little hypocritic, there was a time not too long ago that the Braves would not have made the playoffs at all this year! Plus you didn’t menion football, How many times has the team with the most wins won the Superbowl? Quit whinning Our team lost, though maybe the Wild Card should be expanded to a 3 game series, The Cardinals outplayed us and they outplayed the Nats, They are a VERY good team with a much better lineup and a pitching staff almost as good as the Braves, I tip my hat to them, They have been in 7 NLCS’s since 2000 and 3 WS they know how to play baseball in September and October!!!!! Thats why St Louis is a baseball town and we cant sell out playoff games
Yankees tab Kuroda to start Game 2 of ALCS – MLB.com
October 13th, 2012
8:40 pm
[...] Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog) [...]
gy6
October 13th, 2012
8:45 pm
why not just make it a single elimination tournament with 28 of the 30 teams qualifying. makes as much sense as this abortion.
Sonny Clusters
October 13th, 2012
9:22 pm
The point was made. 2 teams collapsed. The manager of one has 2 WS rings. The manager of the other would have to buy a ticket to get to the WS. One speaks with intelligence and has a plan. “You know what?” the other one doesn’t. We was thinking Mark might be on to something here about a team getting hot at the right time. We was wondering why the Braves go so cold at the wrong time? If we was picking somebody to manage the Braves we would try to find somebody that has been successful before – somebody who could say something more than “you know what?” There are not many cerebral managers out there but LaRussa came pretty close. We understand he reads books. As for Fredi, he is much like Chipper whose favorite author is Marvel.
benchwarmer
October 13th, 2012
10:21 pm
Baseball has always been entertainment. With the expanded leagues now just having two winners leaves out to many fan bases. And of course that also means less money.
Alex Rodriguez Stays on Bench as MLB Yankees Oust Orioles – Businessweek
October 13th, 2012
10:35 pm
[...] Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog) [...]
flagboy?
October 13th, 2012
10:57 pm
al j
October 12th, 2012
1:51 pm
Maybe college football should be reading this.
_____________________________
Are you being serious? College football is doing just fine.
The Truth
October 13th, 2012
11:11 pm
This isn’t the MLB I grew up enjoying. 100 wins means nothing. This is now the NFL where you can squeak into the playoffs at 8-8 thanks to the 1,204th tiebreaker, catch fire, then beat a team that was dominant for an entire season. I get it…. it’s all about money… and the more teams that “have a shot,” the more money they make. But each wild card series went to 5 games. ALL of them… if that just isn’t the slightest bit fishy, I don’t know what is. I’m sick of baseball right now. F the Cardinals, F the Yankees, F the Giants… and go Tigers (only by default). Though the fate of all 4 teams has probably already been decided.
Walter
October 14th, 2012
12:17 am
What is your point? Baseball still has the lowest percentage of it’s overall teams make the playoffs (compared to NBA and NFL) and the NBA is the only league where the top 1-2 seeds win just about every series. What’s the point of having a playoffs if the top teams are supposed to win every time? This is what makes watching the NBA playoffs before the Finals pretty much pointless. If you want a system that really rewards regular season performance, go watch EPL soccer and write about that.
Stinger 2
October 14th, 2012
3:54 am
Clusters: I am certainly not obsessed about you. In fact, I have a real issue with you.
That being your continious complaining and negative posts about the Braves. Now, as I have said many times, you have a right to say anything you want to say as long as Mark and Jeff don`t filter your comments. I will continue to respond as I see fit to do so.
I have never called you any ugly or demeaning names. I will not get into that game with you. I will continue to be a “cheerleader” and true fan of the Braves. Go Braves!
Larry
October 14th, 2012
7:36 am
Leaving comments at 3:54 am are clearly a sign of obsessing.
I agree with Clusters: Chipper departed with a lot of stats burdoned with an unremarkable postseason career; Uggla defines everything about a Cox and Gonzelez brand of free swinging, guess hitting home run hitters; and Gonzalez is neither bright or courageous.
Some like to say that playing Ross over McCann took courage. Well how smart and courageous is it to play your solid back-up over the injured starter?
Francoy benched his starting center fielder, Coco Crisp, due to a poor postseason and won a World Series. Giraldi just benched arguably a top 10 alltime player in AROD in the 5th and deciding game and advanced…that’s courage! Meanwhile, Uggla was benched a game or two and was once again cluless in the play-in game; Chipper jogs to first in his final at bat as if to say, “I guit,” while once again not showing up in the big boy games.
Freddi is a nice guy and I’m sure the veteran players find him easy to play for. But make no mistake about it, when it comes to apptitude, instincts, strategy and courage, he’s in the bottom fith of all whom manage the game of the easiest professional game to manage.
Larry
October 14th, 2012
7:38 am
Francona
Sonny Clusters
October 14th, 2012
11:00 am
Watch out, Larry, or somebody will start to mama you and tell you that you have a right to say something but she is going to set you straight in her next post. We have been blogging here for years and this is the first time we’ve encountered a nosy Betty like this one. Now, as for calling names . . . we think “creepy” is descriptive as is “stalker” and we have no regrets about calling it like we see it. We was wondering who wears the pants in that family but we already know who wears the pajamas. We are glad there are some folks blogging on here who share some of our opinions and it is not important that any of us agree on everything. Some little fella thinks we all have to be like him. Creepy.
Peter
October 14th, 2012
11:33 am
Yes Dakota .. Right on……. Cards are clutch, and all the whining won’t change the Braves are NOT !
cloudodust
October 14th, 2012
11:42 am
Advertising (TV timeouts, etc) surrounding sports (regular season and playoffs) is killing my interest in watching live (Thankfully there’s DVR). Playoffs (as we’ve come to know and love them) mean booku revenue for TV and whatever the sport of choice. At least Baseball (historcally) has a rhythm to it that TV/advertising can’t destroy (yet). Just give ‘em time.
Pat K
October 14th, 2012
11:56 am
Sour grapes. Really. Sour grapes.
Stinger 2
October 14th, 2012
1:22 pm
Clusters: As to others who share your opinions: There are many who do just that.
The difference is how they do it vs. how you express yours and to the extent that you do. First, you try to be funny to your admirers by using analogies to belittle,complain about and put Fredi, and certain players you dislike under the bus. Second, you do this on and on never taking the time to freshen up your negative acts.
This is very different from others who don`t like the Braves. Most of those people are to the point and come up with something different to complain about on their next post..
Ken Stallings
October 14th, 2012
2:34 pm
A number of salient points made by you, Mark Bradley.
My purest side desires a return to the nine-game World Series where the winner of the National League’s regular season meets the winner of the American League’s regular season. That same side wants the designated hitter rule eliminated and inter-league play limited to the All-Star game and the World Series.
But, alas, none of that will happen. There is just way too much interest and money on the table for the division and league playoffs and that requires more than one NL team playing one AL team. But, perhaps the Wild Card should be limited to one team because to have an even number of teams in the playoffs you have to have one more team than the champions of the three divisions per league can deliver.
I could live better with the two-team Wild Card if it featured a three game series all played at the home stadium of the higher finisher. A split doubleheader would allow it to fit in two days to minimize impact on the division winners being idle too long. It would also handicap the wild card team that won because their bullpen would be heavily taxed.
Ultimately, perhaps baseball should emphasize the regular season champions more. European League soccer does this by awarding a coveted trophy to the regular season champion and then having a playoff with its own trophy. Perhaps therefore the root of your column’s point llies in the winner-take-all emphasis put on the World Series champion. We actually start to believe that there is no lasting value in winning a regular season title of any sort.
Perhaps that is what needs to change more than anything else. Perhaps baseball needs to award significant trophies to division champions and make an emphasis of it.
Sonny Clusters
October 14th, 2012
2:37 pm
You, sir, are a sick little man. Leave us alone and go blog baseball. Sure, you don’t know much about the game but that’s not prerequisite for participation here. We was wondering why you keep posting about us instead of your heroes? Chipper, Uggla, and Fredi together might score 30 on a Wonderlic but that is not a given. Another thing that is creepy is how you come to a blog long after it closes and post about us. Like Larry says, you are obsessing and that is not healthy for an old codger like you. When our granddaddy Clusters got old he still had his mind and we are sorry if that’s not working out for you in old age. We would have thought you was a youngster with arrested development until your mentioned your grandchildren and because we respect them we will try to leave you alone if you will just stop stalking us and following us from blog to blog and looking in our windows at home. Creep.
Sonny Clusters
October 14th, 2012
2:50 pm
Mark, let us ask you a question . . . if you was Fredi Gonzalez and you was going to spring training what would you do to try to improve this team and what might you try to do to help them play better baseball in the games that are win or go home? Since they are always going home early in those games we think maybe they should do something different or try something new. Now, that’s just us and the way we think. When we was playing ball Coach did most of the thinking and strategizing for our team but (you know what?) Coach was a whole lot smarter than Fredi appears to be.
Stinger 2
October 14th, 2012
5:41 pm
Clusters: There you go again. You could not ask a question of Mark without saying something ugly about Fredi could you? The man lead his team to more wins (94) than all other managers but four. This total was only one less than the NYY. This qualifies his to have a lot of smarts. You are always braging about being a baseball player but I never see any solutions to any issues or problems you have with the Braves. And we all know if you don`t have a solution you are part of the problem. And I tell you what ;
You seem to have more complaints and problems about the Braves than any other blogger on AJC.
bulldogbubba
October 14th, 2012
5:59 pm
@Mr Stinger2- Please back off Mr. Clusters with your comments.He along with you have a right to give your opinion on the Braves.Yes you can rah about 94 wins and Chipper, Uggla , and Fredi are the cream of the crop in your opinion , but Mr.Clusters does make valid points about where the weak points are in the line-up and where they could improve to go all the way to a championship. I personally do not know Mr. Clusters but I do know about the Parkview culture he comes from.I worked in that community for 7 years and know how passionate they are about winning in all sports and academics also. In those years around that community of people I know they won 3 state championships in football, several in baseball and also in soccer and in one school year they were the state champions in all three. I say that to say this , if Mr. Clusters was around that enviornment he knows what it takes to be a winner and what decisions are made to reach those goals of winnig the top prize.That whole community has the same mindset as Mr.Clusters potrays in his writings on this blog and I enjoy his sarcasim and his funny writings also.So I ask both of you to keep this and other blogs fun and imformative for ALL of us. Thanks to BOTH of you for what you can add to them all. THANKS!!!!!
Stinger 2
October 14th, 2012
9:26 pm
bulldogbubba: Please tell me what you think I should not say in response to Clusters.
I never call him any ugly names like he calls me (Stalker and Creep) etc. I usually state that I am not calling him down for giving his opinions which he has a right to do.I only respond to his post because they are always complaining,criticizing,negative,etc, about the same individuals using as a disguise ( his humor) in an attempt of offset the seriousness of what he is really meaning about Fredi, Chipper, Uggla, et all. I just do not think its right to get personal in your critical remarks about a celebrity or athelete.
Call their preformance or actions on the field bad if you think they are. But don`t take it to the point Clusters does.
I again ask: What do you want me not to say? I will listen for your answer.
bulldogbubba
October 15th, 2012
12:20 am
@Mr.Stinger2 – My suggestion is to pick your battles.I do see on this writers blog and Jeff Schultz’s that you contribute a lot of writings when Mr. Clusters has given his “negative” thoughts as you suggest. It starts out to be a good read but then it seems to go downhill after 2 or 3 responses between the two of you. I think if you would give some suggestions as to how the Braves can improve their team in stead of always critizing Clusters or anyone else who may “rail”on a player or players might just help the negative situation. The same players are the ones who play poorly many times whether he is a HOF’er or a overpaid 2nd baseman or a hurt catcher. That is why a frustrated blogger may call out those players time after time hoping Fredi sees it and makes a change instead of being his buddy..With all that said I appeal to Mr. Clusters to have patience with you as you reassess the way you approach him henceforth and we all agree to disagree and enjoy the writings of Mark and Jeff. I hope you and Clusters have swell week!!!!!!!!!! GO BRAVES
Ben
October 15th, 2012
4:29 am
I disagree… I like the new format.
First, the new format devalues the wildcard. No longer does sneaking
in as the wildcard put you on the same stage as the division winner.
Ask Texas if they would have rather won the division to get at least a
best of 5. Oakland overtook them and they were done after one more
game. The random component is the penalty for not winning your
division. I want this penalty to be large so I do not prefer a 3 game
series for the wildcards. Allow the random penalty to stand!
Second, it keeps many more teams and cities interested in baseball
into September. This, I would argue, increases interest in the regular
season.
If the goal is to reward “excellence”, as the author so pompously puts
it, and excellence is measured by a teams regular season record, then
we could toss out the divisions and have the AL and NL champion play
each other like prior to what, 1967. Then we would be guaranteed to
have one of the “most excellent” teams win the championship.
I prefer the champion to be a team that is good enough to qualify, and
also good enough to win when the pressure is on. Good enough to
qualify is to win your division. As far as the wildcards letting in
sub par teams, all the wild card teams in both leagues had a better
record or an equal record to the Tigers who were the division winner
with the least wins.
One additional reason I like some luck/randomness to be involved is
the payroll disparity in MLB. I like the fact that more teams have a
chance to take down the big spenders, especially, of course, the
Yankees.
Stinger 2
October 15th, 2012
6:20 am
bulldogbubba: I read your last response. I have no problem with what you said.If you are concerned and have problems with my responses to Clusters, I will let him be.
Vermont 39
October 15th, 2012
7:44 am
Playing a season of excellent baseball doesn’t really mean that much anymore. Apologists will say;”it’s a NEW ERA;people want excitement in the Post Season. $ound$ $u$piciou$ and di$ingenuou$.
smallmouth6
October 15th, 2012
8:17 am
The Wildlife Card means second and now third place teams can take be crowned the best team in all of baseball when in fact they are not. We will never go back because of money, but baseball will never be as representative of the true championship teams or rewarding to the championship team’s fans as it was before the wild card. Add that with a failure to get a hold of the ridiculous salaries being paid by rich teams, then what you have left a third of the teams always having a chance to win, a third with an outside possibility, and third that almost always end up like Kansas City or Pittsburg.
James Rygelski
October 15th, 2012
11:33 am
As a lifelong Cardinals fan (since 1959) I’ve seen some real Cardinals N.L. and world champs (1964, 1967, 1968, 1982, 1985, 1987, 2004) and some make-believe ones (2006, 2011). I’m the only Cardinals fan who’s dismayed by the now-strong possibility that the 88-74 Cardinals, fifth-best in the N.L., will meet the 88-74 Tigers, seventh-best in the A.L., in this year’s excuse for the World Series. The greater dismay is that the American sporting public wants this kind of thing, with the Davids slaying the Goliaths every year (though you’ll have two Davids in this Series). Not saying the way things were done “way back then” were always better, but before wild cards were allowed starting in 1995 the World Series in the two-division era usually featured the perceived best team in each league facing each other (with few exceptions like the 1973 Mets and 1987 Twins). We had respect for those who’d achieved something in the long regular season and sat back to watch the best battle it out. Now, in an age in which everyone feels entitled to compete for a playoff spot, we watch the good to great regular-season teams eliminated early while the mediocrities thump their chests and pop Champagne. The current system punishes those who excel and rewards those who straggle in.