Braves-Cardinals: Who holds the play-in edge? Flip a coin
Michael Bourn after a circuit clout against the Cards in May. Circuit clouts never hurt. (AP photo)
If the playoffs are a crap shoot, the newly minted play-in game is a coin flip. There’s really no handicapping the Braves-Cardinals game. There’s only “heads” or “tails.”
And yet: We wouldn’t be doing our duty if we didn’t make the attempt at determining what might (and might not) be important. So here, as the saying has it, goes nothing, even as we know full well such factoid-finding might indeed amount to nothing.
Hitting: This isn’t close. The Cardinals lead the Braves in runs, batting average, home runs and on-base percentage. The Cardinals have also struck out 99 fewer times than the Braves, which might sound like a big deal but probably isn’t. (It means St. Louis batters have whiffed, on average, .61 fewer times per game.)
The Braves have drawn 43 more walks than the Cards, but since Kyle Lohse, who has walked only 38 batters over 211 innings, is scheduled to start Friday, that nugget could be rendered just another pebble. This, however, might be of substance: The Braves entered their 162nd ranked last among National League teams in hitting with runners in scoring position; the Redbirds were fourth.
If the game comes down to a manufactured run, the Cardinals have the better track record. But the most famous play-in game ever — Yankees 5, Red Sox 4 in 1978 — was decided by a three-run homer hoisted by a No. 9 hitter who’d hit four home runs over 162 games, which is how Bucky Dent came to be handed a new middle name by bitter Bostonians.
Starting pitching: Lohse won 16 games and finished with the league’s fifth-lowest ERA. But he’s not a knock-the-bat-out-of-your-hands pitcher. (He had 143 strikeouts in those 211 innings.) Because of his control, his WHIP (walks/hits per innings pitched) is excellent (1.09), and opponents have hit only .239 against him. That said, the Braves did muster five earned runs on nine hits and two homers in their one outing against Lohse, who took a no-decision in a game his team would lose 10-7 here on May 30.
The Braves haven’t lost a Kris Medlen start since May 23, 2010. His WHIP is a flyspeck 0.91, and opponents have hit .208 against him. But the Cardinals, as fate would have it, have hit him pretty well. (Albeit when he was a reliever.) In 5 2/3 innings against him this season, they managed six hits and three earned runs. But the most recent of those games was Memorial Day.
In a one-game setting, you’d have to give the edge to the man who never loses, but it must be noted that, in 2007, San Diego started Jake Peavy, who would win the Cy Young Award that year, against Colorado’s Josh Fogg, who finished the season 10-9 with a 4.94 ERA. The Rockies won the play-in game 9-8 in 13 innings, neither starter figuring in the decision. But Fogg did yield one fewer earned run (five) than Peavy (six).
Relief pitching: This one isn’t close, either. The Braves finished with the league’s second-best bullpen ERA, the Cardinals with the 10th-best. The Braves’ closer is Craig Kimbrel, whose regular season has been of historic proportions. Kimbrel struck out more than half the batters he faced (116 of 231), and according to Eric Seidman of FanGraphs, no pitcher with 30 or more innings in a season has ever come close to that staggering rate.)
Kimbrel has blown only three saves in 42 chances. The Cardinals’ closer is Jason Motte, who’s good (41 saves, seven blown saves), but he’s not Kimbrel. Nobody is.
But we return to the 2007 play-in: The Padres handed Trevor Hoffman, who was the career leader in saves until Mariano Rivera passed him last season, the ball with a two-run lead in the bottom of the 13th. He faced five Rockies. One walked. Three got hits. One of the best ever had his worst night and blew the postseason for his team. It can happen.
Which is pretty much the point: In any one baseball game, anything can happen. It never hurts to be at home, which the Braves will be, and it helps if you catch the ball, and the Braves have made 20 fewer errors than the Cardinals. And it says a little something that the Braves took five of six from St. Louis this season and were, on the record, a better team over the six-month season. Still, you could outrank the opponent in every category from WHIP to BABIP, and if you have a bad day at the ballyard you can lose.
As much as we like to believe sports serve to measure skill and will, they don’t always. Sometimes it comes down to luck. Sometimes you just need to call “heads” and be blissfully right.
By Mark Bradley
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137 comments Add your comment
HUH?????
October 3rd, 2012
3:52 pm
“Braves-Cardinals: Who holds the play-in edge?”
Cards. They’ve been here before. Hey, just check out last year.
VinceVanGo
October 3rd, 2012
3:56 pm
I hoping for an ending like “The Natural” where an aged, hurting hitter(Chipper) knocks one up into the lights to end it, and then sails off into retirement. Wouldn’t that be great? Go Chipper! Go Braves!
Ron
October 3rd, 2012
4:32 pm
I think we need to just throw out what happened last year and even earlier this season. The Braves are playing at home, they have been winning lately, yes the offense is a concern but that is with every team, Cardinals included. The Braves have one of the best pitchers going for them, a capable offense and an excellent bullpen, let’s play ball!!
kreedham
October 3rd, 2012
4:39 pm
The Cards have our number, just remember last year, etc, etc…..Geez folks, it’s not the same team, they have new players, we have new players, they have a new manager, they don’t have Pujouls…it’s different every year. Now it certainly helps to have players that have played in the playoffs before but that’s about the only thing going for them.
Now What
October 3rd, 2012
4:44 pm
@HUH?????
So that means its our turn to be the “hot” team in right? Come on its our turn right?
Are we hot enough?
Do we have that extra incentive to push us?
We have a Chipper, and something tells me the old man is going to leave all 40 years on the field every game……
Jim
October 3rd, 2012
4:53 pm
I live in St Louis now but have been following the Braves since the early 70’s. I believe it was on Channel 17?? Not sure now, but it was a while back. My daughter grew up the biggest Dale Murphy fan. I just hate the one game format but it will be exciting for sure if it is tight in the late innings.
Love the Cards but the Braves also. Best of luck to Chipper.
Skip Caray from the Grave
October 3rd, 2012
5:12 pm
Braves Win!
Ernie Sr.
October 3rd, 2012
5:13 pm
You are so right Skip
drerw
October 3rd, 2012
5:14 pm
Braves lose this game – no doubt about it. Can’t hit a lick…
T
October 3rd, 2012
5:24 pm
The Braves should be honored that the defending World Champions are coming to Atlanta to end their season.
Go Cards!
True Braves Fan
October 3rd, 2012
5:37 pm
Ok, All you Cardinal Tools, except Dr. Feelgood, and NON-Braves fan dressed in Braves clothing, do us all a favor, go ramble your stupid remarks elsewhere. Let us TRUE Braves fan have chance to root for our team without reading stupid idiotic posts about something that has not even happened yet. I did not know people could read the future and already see the game. No???? Ohh, then you dont know the score yet. This team has been just as hot as the Redbirds. It is not like we have lost 9 out of 18 games like last year. We are 10-4 the past 14 games just like the Cards. So, we have a great shot at this. I am not going to be at the game, but I promise you I will be rooting just as hard for the Braves like I was there. I think they can go far in the playoffs. They definately have the Talent and the Leadership to do it. We have arguably the best Pitcher in baseball taking the mound. I like my chances anytime Meds is in the Game. So, all TRUE braves fans, this is a call out to everyone to rally around our team. WE can win this. We just need the support. All the naysayers, watch TLC or Martha Stewart and leave the Braves watching to all us TRUE fans. Go braves. Lets go get a Championship!!!!!!!!!!
Nativebird
October 3rd, 2012
5:41 pm
This 1-game raffle ticket excuse of a playoff game is a Cancer on the face of baseball. Bud Selig is a joke and should be Ashamed of himself.
Deep Six Hanson
October 3rd, 2012
5:43 pm
That is three guys that I never want to see in a Braves uniform again: Kawasucki, JJ, and Tommy Hanson.
Hillbilly D
October 3rd, 2012
6:04 pm
October baseball is about pitching and starting pitching, in particular. If one of the starters struggles early, that’s probably going to determine the winner.
Nativebird @5:41
Amen to that.
Dum-Bass
October 3rd, 2012
6:19 pm
Test Test Testing 123
Ctrim
October 3rd, 2012
6:28 pm
Glad the wild card game is on a Friday instead of a Monday!
Dum-Bass
October 3rd, 2012
6:28 pm
Wow, it worked. Last 2 or 3 msgs. on here this week never posted. Ghosts and goblins out early for Halloween. Now, I am amazed that this article did not state the one glaring fact that tells me the St. Louis manager is about as inept as FG. The Braves have scored 456 runs against RHs and 239 vs LHs, as of yesterday. What manager in his right mind would not start a lefty? Some will say, when they check, that the Cards are almost as bad, but if you will note they have a much lower number of ABs against lefthanders than the Braves. Teams found out real quick they could throw lefties against the Braves and stand a much better chance of winning. It’s crazy but I am sure the Braves do appreciate the advantage!
Dum-Bass
October 3rd, 2012
6:32 pm
“ctrim” BUT the Braves do play the second game of the NLDS on Monday, so they better be sure to win that first one on Sunday(if they get past the wildcard play in game). The next 3 (if there’s 3) will all be in Washington.
Sonny Clusters
October 3rd, 2012
6:33 pm
Well, five minutes is not a record but it is pretty quick for a little stalker to show up and post about a Clusters. We think somebody may be obsessed with us and that is a little scary because we don’t know if someday he may show up at our house and want to talk to our mama about us.
oldfart
October 3rd, 2012
6:35 pm
A scheduled single game playoff, play-in, whatever, is simply not baseball and I totally agree that it is the equivalent of a coin flip. Baseball would have a better commissioner if they dug up Kenesaw Mountain Landis and propped him behind a desk.
afan 65
October 3rd, 2012
6:45 pm
Past records don’t mean crap in a one game play-off..so forget the head to head stuff. Luck plays a big part on a one game crap shoot. The Baseball God’s didn’t come up with the one game play-off it was the $$$ MLB that come up with the stupid one and done crap.
I pray BRaves win are its another 2011…..
jj
October 3rd, 2012
6:48 pm
Bud the commissioner is a idiot for this play off system.
HUH?????
October 3rd, 2012
6:53 pm
Now What
I’ve just seen the Braves fall too many times to put too much stock in them. If they win, they’ll face an uphill battle with Nats pitching. The Nats have been cold lately so who knows?
The Braves have won the season series against the Cards but both teams are warm right now. Medlen is the guy I want to see out there in this situation.
HUH?????
October 3rd, 2012
6:54 pm
“Bud the commissioner is a idiot for this play off system.”
Amen to that. Not sure what a two team wild card game is supposed to prove. The Braves have earned the right to go to the playoffs.
Cletus Van Damme
October 3rd, 2012
6:56 pm
,,The most impressive thing I’ve ever seen in my years of following baseball (I’m 40, first started watching the Braves back in 1982)…are the 2012 Oakland A’s.
The A’s have the second lowest payroll in baseball ($55 mil). They traded their top two starting pitchers (Gio Gonzalez, who won 20 games for Washington and Trevor Cahill) and closer (Andrew Bailey) from 2011 during the off season. Their team is made up of a bunch of no name rookies and discarded spare parts from other teams.
Simply put, they were expected to lose over 90 games in 2012…not win over 90 games.
On June 30th, they were 37-42, 13 games behind Texas. Their September schedule was brutal (from September 3rd, the played 7 games against the Angels, 7 games against Texas, 3 games against the Yankees, 3 games against the Orioles, 3 games against Detroit…with 6 games against Seattle). Other than those 6 games against Seattle (they went 6-0 against the Mariners…games that contending teams have to win late in the season)….they played a hell of a stretch (went 12-11 in that tough stretch against non-Seattle teams) to finish the season.
After beating Texas today to win the Division…the A’s finish the regular season 94-68 (same record as us). The A’s had to battle against Texas and the Angels in their division..while we only had to battle Washington.
If the Yankees lose tonight…the A’s will have home field in the AL playoffs. Talk about a team playing the right way! Living in San Francisco…I get to watch a lot of A’s and Giants games (follow the Braves on the MLB Ticket on Direct TV). All year, the A’s bust it and give it their all.
The A’s starting rotation has been 5 rookies since Brandon McCarthy got hit in the head a few weeks back. 5 rookies in the starting rotation! Billy Beane deserves all the “Moneyball” accolades he’s received. Trades, injuries, losing Bartolo Colon to steroid suspension…..should have spelled disaster for the 2012 A’s. Simply an amazing effort….a great year.
Alaska Braves Fan
October 3rd, 2012
6:58 pm
A one-game playoff, or play-in, is just wrong in this sport. Mark is absolutely correct; anything can happen in one game for any reason. Whether we win or lose, it won’t be a good measure of which of the two teams is better. Only a series can give a reasonably good account of that. For this purpose, if MLB is going to have two wild cards – which they shouldn’t! – a minimum of a three-game playoff should be used.
ABF
IlliniBrave
October 3rd, 2012
7:08 pm
It seems no one actually involved with baseball, outside of the commissioner’s office, likes this coin-flip game. Hoepfully this, and the stupid idea of making the All-Star game determine home-field for the World Series, will both be seen for what they are – cheesy gimmicks – and canned. I’ve lost a ton of respect for Bud Selig over these two idiotic changes to the game.
BillEGoat
October 3rd, 2012
7:43 pm
I predict only that there will be a total of three runs scored in the game, somebody will win 2-1 or 3-0, no telling who. I respect McCann’s performances over his career, but I HOPE Ross gets the start–McCann’s health is probably worse than the Braves have admitted,
ATLIEN
October 3rd, 2012
7:51 pm
Seems as if the Braves bats fall asleep as soon as the postseason arrives. But they better not choke or lose this home game. I have faith and I have confidence that they will find away to get it DONE!!!!
Space Monkey
October 3rd, 2012
8:00 pm
If the Braves get in trouble at any point in the game, Fredi needs to bring in Kimbrel. In a game like this, we have to stop any bleeding, fast. Bases get loaded with Cards in the fourth with one out, you bring in Kimbrel. Screw that closer nonsense, use that weapon when the game in on the line. This is not a normal game. It’s a nine inning war. You have to manage every inning like it’s a game in a series. You win the inning, you lose the inning, or you hold the other team to a draw. This game is going to be brutal.
North Campus Trash
October 3rd, 2012
8:13 pm
More gimmick than a game with a ridiculous starting time. But I’ll be there nonetheless.
Seether Fan
October 3rd, 2012
8:24 pm
I’m sure Medlen will hold Cardinals to 3 or fewer runs. If Braves score 4 or more runs I like their chances.
P B Orr
October 3rd, 2012
8:32 pm
I lived in St Louis for 6 years. They are some of the finest people I ever met in the USA. They are tremendously committed fans. People there still remember Big Red, the St Louis football Cardinals, who were usually terrible. But they have no bitterness. They took their Super Bowl win with as much grace as they accepted their Denkinger-generated World Series loss. They do not gloat, they do not show up on the opponents’ blogs to make asses of themselves (listening Choke?). I find it almost impossible to root against them, but I am a Braves fan. I loved it there, but grew up here.
The only chance we have is to be bold – steal bases, make runs, play Herzog-style small ball.
If we fail, a better baseball place will go in our stead. St Louis is baseball royalty. In some ways, even more so than the Yankees, the way the House of Bourbon is better than the House of Lancaster.
PS – W. T. Sherman is buried in St. Louis. Get mad, Braves, get mad.
-drl
Redbird88
October 3rd, 2012
9:08 pm
Nice post above STL is baseball town USA. Also we have very knowledgeable fans as well so speaking to the point of why we are not starting a lefty, Jaime Garcia does not pitch well on the road. Loshe is having a CAREER year with 18 wins so that’s why he is pitching. But in this sudden death playoff it will be all arms on deck and Medlen is long overdue for a loss. “12 in 12″ let’s go CARDINALS!!!!
P B Orr
October 3rd, 2012
9:13 pm
Don’t get too excited RedBird88. This Medlen dude is a bullet(Bob)proof throwback. See you next year
Keith
October 3rd, 2012
9:40 pm
Going to be tough facing off agains the defending champs.
But here are the Braves’ strengths:
Better pitching (barely)
Best bullpen in the MLB
Best defense in the NL
Chipper’s last postseason
I say we win 2-1. GO BRAVES!
Redbird88
October 3rd, 2012
9:43 pm
P B Orr: Medlen’s last loss was on 5/23???? Just happens to be my birthday…..hmmmmmm….Go Cards:)
P B Orr
October 3rd, 2012
9:48 pm
Redbird88 – can we get Budweiser back from Belgium? Sorry. Say hi to Carp!
cloudodust
October 3rd, 2012
9:58 pm
1) I have the debate recording on DVR (as I did the Braves today).
2) My nightly routine is to peruse the internet before I hit the hay and get in my 2 cents if need be (I rise at 6).
3) If you flip a coin 9 times and it comes up tails 9 times straight, what are the odds on the 10th flip it comes up heads? 50-50. Go Braves.
John Leonard
October 3rd, 2012
11:52 pm
The best pitching staff in baseball(IMHO)the Braves,with an offense that is as bad as it gets.I will be as nervous as it gets,rooting for the Braves.
Wilbo
October 4th, 2012
12:34 am
Cards 5-2. Chipper contributes to the Braves downfall with either a big throwing error or a baserunning booboo.
SR
October 4th, 2012
12:41 am
Take the Cards, the Braves don’t hit with RISP and the Cards do. Cards used to this pressure, Braves aren’t. Braves have too many holes in the lineup, Card’s don’t. Love what the Braves have done this year but they have lost so many key games at home, they do not inspire confidence.
Glenn Griffin
October 4th, 2012
12:58 am
Braves win it all period.
elb Expos
October 4th, 2012
1:46 am
If the Braves get past the Cards and Expos, I like their chances in the NLCS. The Braves had a very good record in the division with the highest winning percentage of the three. East .4992, Central .4765, West .495. The Reds and Cards record was padded by having the Cubs with 101 losses and Astros with 107 losses to beat up on.
The Astros close out their status as a NL club with a loss to the Cubs! How many people came out to watch two clubs with over 100 losses? 27,606!
jdawg
October 4th, 2012
2:32 am
I am so nervous about this game
Bradley Curse
October 4th, 2012
2:40 am
screw Chipper walkoffs and stuff like that, I’d rather not think this team, which has more wins than the Cardinals, can be knocked out by one swing of the bat … Braves need to score about 5+ in the early going and add on in the late innings. Take a cue from the A’s and win the game in convincing fashion
John Leonard
October 4th, 2012
2:46 am
Curse: All good,but how are the Braves going to score 5 runs?If they get 3 I’d be happy.
Stinger 2
October 4th, 2012
4:37 am
Wilbo: Ugly comment about Chipper. Do you want to bench him for the play in game? Sounds like you have a vendetta agains him.
ChipperisGod
October 4th, 2012
4:40 am
@True Braves Fan
Thank you. I’ve had it up to here with the pessimists on the blog that have come crawling out of their holes. If that’s your attitude towards this game then don’t watch it. Don’t pay attention to the Braves if you’re just going to say that we’re going to lose automatically and sending out these bad negative vibes. Yes, we’ve had bad postseasons, a lot of them. But guess what? This is a new year. A new team that is for the most part, healthy. We have the best pitcher in the game going Friday. We have an offense that is capable of putting up some runs (although they’ve been struggling recently), and we have a great bullpen. And guess what, on the offensive side? Everyone starts over, starts fresh. And they get to do it at home with the city behind them.
We have a team that is going to be FIRED up to play in front of the 50,000 people coming to Turner Field. And I will be there chopping my butt off supporting my team for all three+ hours of this game no matter what happens. True Braves Fan is right, we’ve been playing great ball lately and have taken care of business down the stretch.
Some things concern me such as the offense, but if they can just scrape together some runs, we can do this. I really believe we can. We smacked Lohse around before, that means we can do it again. This team has its flaws, but I think we’ve got a good shot to take down the Cards. I think the Cards’ offense is scary, and Lohse is a good pitcher. But their bullpen is vulnerable. We just need to get a lead going into the seventh. If we can do that, even if it IS a 1-0 lead, you’ve got to like our chances with our shut down bullpen. If we take the same approach we took against Gio a few Sundays ago, we’re golden. That was championship caliber offense right there. Working the count, and then busting through. A slow burn forcing one of the best pitchers in baseball to ware down.
Anything can happen in this game, it’s crazy, insane. But if you Braves fans dressed in Negative Nancy clothing want to just continue to say we’re going to lose and what not, and whine and complain then you just shouldn’t watch nor care. And don’t any of you like JJ come back on here if we win on Friday and go, “Braves are going all the way” or something like that. A true fan sticks by his/her team no matter what, and believes. You can point out concerns and problems that the team has, but don’t just be so darn negative all the time. It’s just unfulfilling, and unwarranted. We have a good squad here that needs your support!
I am going to chop and scream until my voice is gone, my arm falls off and nothing is left but a bloody stub that bleeds Braves red, white and blue.
Go Braves!
"Chef" Tim Dix
October 4th, 2012
5:34 am
Who has the advantage?
Braves bat last.