Fantasy baseball: Could the Braves really catch the Nationals?
Does this look like a team in the early stages of collapsing? (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
Washington holds a five-game lead over the Braves with 14 to play. (The Braves have 12 games remaining.) That’s still a sizable margin. But it’s not nearly as big as it was a week ago, when the Nationals were 8 1/2 games in front. And if you’re wondering if such a lead has ever been squandered in so short a time, the answer is yes. The 1964 Phillies, long the gold standard of flops, led by 6 1/2 with 12 to go.
(Oh, and if you’re wondering, “How far ahead of St. Louis were the 2011 Braves with 14 games remaining?”, the answer is 4 1/2 games. We know how that turned out.)
In sum, it can happen. Working against the Braves is that they don’t play Washington again. Working for them is that the schedules are imbalanced. All of the Nationals’ remaining games will come against Los Angeles, Milwaukee, St. Louis or Philadelphia — all of whom have reason to believe they can still make the playoffs. The Braves have six games remaining against the out-of-it Mets and Marlins and will end the regular season with three games against the Pirates, who no longer have a realistic postseason chance.
These next five days should tell the tale. The Nats play the Dodgers again tonight — the teams split a doubleheader Wednesday — and then must face the rampaging Brewers four times. The Braves play three games in Philadelphia, and the Phillies have been nearly as hot as Milwaukee. If the Braves can gain a couple of more games by the close of business Monday, they’ll have a chance.
Truth to tell, they already do. The Nationals’ magic number to clinch the division stood at 11 on Sept. 13. A week later, it has only shrunk to nine. If Washington had beaten the Braves even once here over the weekend, we’d have no real reason to get excited. But the Nats didn’t, and we kind of do. We around here know how fast leads can disappear.
By Mark Bradley
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92 comments Add your comment
Lloyd Christmas
September 20th, 2012
1:44 pm
There is a chance
Sonny Clusters
September 20th, 2012
1:55 pm
Losing one or two or three of these next few games is not what will cost the Braves the division. It’s those games when Fredi was trying to help Uggla “find” himself and the games that he did not go with the “hot hand” like he said he would. Early games count the same as late games. This organization ends up in September with games they “must” win and many times have found they can’t win them. Let’s hope they can win the play-in and then the division series and then the championship series and then the World Series and we will tip our cap.
Stinger 2
September 20th, 2012
2:40 pm
I`ll tell you what. Some bloggers think I don`t know what I am doing in the dugout. They post text saying I don`t manage good. They say that I baby Uggla and I don`t go with the hot hand. Other comments like I don`t manage the bullpen correctly and that I don`t play small ball, etc. are just not right. Look at our record, we are 22 games over .500 and have the fourth best record MLB. I will tip my cap to myself if nobody else will.
coach13
September 20th, 2012
3:22 pm
As long as it’s still possible it’s possible, but not probable.
joe Bling
September 20th, 2012
3:46 pm
“It’s really theirs to win or lose, at this point.”
Um, no, actually it is not. They could win every remaining game and still finish second.
sidslid
September 20th, 2012
4:00 pm
The Strasburg decision and Boras’ role in it will be a hot topic for a long time. Don’t give me this “in the long run” argument. Ask Dan Marino about all those Super Bowls he played in after that first one in 1985.
Sonny Clusters
September 20th, 2012
4:14 pm
Our little Clusters stalker is posting using several different names and when somebody is going to do that they need to remember to use the right name or they may look like they were groggy and in their pajamas when they posted something. The 4th best record sounds pretty good until you realize one of the teams ahead of you is your division rival and as long as he’s there you won’t be “winning” the division. That’s like a politician that wins the popular vote and gets dusted by the electoral college – not quite good enough.
Train Wreck Bystander
September 20th, 2012
4:32 pm
@ Sonny Clusters
Not to mention that the Braves are 4th best not in all of MLB, but in the NL, behind the three division leaders. That makes them (currently) the best 2nd place team in the NL. :~
@ all
If I could be Bud Selig for a day, I’d do away with divisions altogether and just let the top 4 teams in each league advance to the playoff round. Make the first round best of 5 and the league championships best of 7.
bulldogbubba
September 20th, 2012
4:38 pm
Blame it on Bud Selig.He was just tryin to help his Brewers get in the playoffs by adding another slot.
Stinger 2
September 20th, 2012
5:22 pm
Clusters: Obvious you were refering to me. But, I will tell you what. Your name was not used in my post. Also, you said I am using different names. What are they?
I always use Stinger 2 on Mark`s blog.. You changed it to Stalker 2 in your post.
Mike S.
September 20th, 2012
5:32 pm
This Braves team has played well against teams not contending for playoff spots. I dont think its out of the question. The sweep of the Nats was huge. The question is, how will the Nats do on a very rough stretch to end the season? I dont expect the Braves to lose more than maybe 4 or 5 games on the remaining schedule.
KC
September 20th, 2012
5:39 pm
They really need to quit saying it’s 5 games back. Though it may be… the real # is in the loss column (6 games back). And that one game difference could make a huge difference with just over a week to play. Should’ve, would’ve, could’ve… we’re headed for the wild card folks. And that one-game wild game is nothing but a crap shoot. You give up a 3-run homer in the first and your whole season could be in jeopardy.
Sonny Clusters
September 20th, 2012
5:49 pm
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extremus
September 20th, 2012
6:17 pm
Numerically and schedule-wise I guess anything’s possible, but let’s face it, the Braves can’t really figure on the Nationals having a collapse of any significance, especially one that would allow the Braves to overtake them (and on the flip side, the Braves would have to almost run the table in their remaining games). Thus far in 2012 the Nats have had the NL East’s best record by being remarkably consistent and rarely allowing any losing streaks, both of which are issues that often plague the Braves.
The reality of having a second wild-card team and a one-game playoff to decide which one moves on is only based on presumed TV ratings and money, not on any sense of practicality. The prospect of finishing 6, 7, or more games ahead of the next wild card team (as is the case with the Braves) only to possibly lose one stupid game head to head and have your season be over WILL infuriate fans of the eliminated teams…and it SHOULD. This isn’t the NFL or NBA where the more talented team wins 90-plus percent of the time; the nature of baseball is very much more unpredictable. Baseball’s playoffs have always been about a team having to prove it’s the better one across a series via starting rotation matchups, lineups that may be hot or cold, and management decisions made at crucial points, and every tier of playoff series only adds to the crapshoot. The better team doesn’t always win a series, much less a single game.
A one-game playoff could end the Braves’ season…and Chipper Jones’ last run at another championship…without the benefit of the most basic feature of every MLB playoffs: the series format. And folks, that would be a grave injustice.
Hanson pitching tonight = LOSS
September 20th, 2012
6:37 pm
Hanson pitching tonight – go ahead and mark it up as a LOSS Hanson = KAWASUCKI
Keith
September 20th, 2012
7:53 pm
My prediction:
Braves will finish 2 games out of 1st.
Mark, do you think there is actually anyway the Braves won’t go with Medlen in the 1-game playoff and Huddy in the division series?
I know they say they’re thinking about it, but that’s just them being nice cause Huddy is a vet.
GO BRAVES!
Keith
September 20th, 2012
7:55 pm
Re: Hanson pitching tonight
Braves are off tonight. He will go tomorrow.
Ekim56
September 20th, 2012
8:28 pm
Please post the score as soon as the game ends tonight, “Hanson pitching tonight.” We would all like to see it.
Mark Bradley
September 20th, 2012
8:31 pm
I can’t imagine Kris Medlen wouldn’t start the play-in game.
Josh Smith for 3
September 20th, 2012
8:59 pm
I’m with KC, who posted a similar sentiment of the play-in being a “crap shoot.” Does anybody else think this is a really bad thing? I know the collapse last year was miserable to watch but having a team’s entire season depend on one game seems like a swift kick to the groin, especially to a team like the Braves that has built up a substantial lead in the wild card. “Sorry, your best starter didn’t have it tonight, try winning the division next time.”
Hillbilly D
September 20th, 2012
9:00 pm
I can’t imagine Kris Medlen wouldn’t start the play-in game.
Me either, because if they don’t win that game, any other plans are pretty much useless.
Josh Smith for 3
September 20th, 2012
9:01 pm
I just have a bad feeling about a play-in game possibility.
“Sorry, your ace starter just didn’t have it tonight. Try winning the division next year.”
son's who?
September 20th, 2012
9:05 pm
1973 – Davey Johnson hit 43 homers for the Braves. His next highest total was 18. Darrell Evans hit 41. He hit over 30 only once more in his career. Hank Aaron, in 1973, hit 40 homers, and followed it up with seasons of 20, 12, and 10.
Of course, it was all due to eating lots of fresh vegetables.
braveslover
September 20th, 2012
9:56 pm
Hey Mark bring your A game to the rag this time of year. This article was pathetic.
BulldogBen
September 20th, 2012
10:59 pm
Catch the Nats? Where have you been for the last decade plus?
This team is going to give us a fate worse than last year. Hope followed by crushing defeat in 1 game playoff. Aka The Braves Way.
Buzz2011
September 21st, 2012
3:15 am
no
HUH?????
September 21st, 2012
9:10 am
“Could the Braves really catch the Nationals?”
Yeah, and UGA will win the national championship (sarcasm for the incredibly stupid).
HUH?????
September 21st, 2012
9:10 am
What’s the point of having two wild card teams if one of them will go home after one game?
Shug
September 21st, 2012
9:18 am
The main problem for the Braves is that the Nationals have a very good team, probably the best in baseball. Another problem for the Braves is that the Braves are not good enough to go on a 10-game tear. The Braves should gear up for that one-game wild card gem.
P B Orr
September 21st, 2012
9:43 am
Magic for them is 8. But all it takes is simultaneous sweeps to get close – and the Brewers are sizzling hot.
Weyman C Wanamaker Jr, (A Great American)
September 21st, 2012
10:35 am
Could they catch the Nats? Yes.
Will they catch the Nats? Not a chance.
JD Harris
September 21st, 2012
10:39 am
I’m more worried about the Brewers sneaking into the play-in game. They kinda owned us in that series a couple of weeks ago.
Jeffrey
September 21st, 2012
10:49 am
I’m scared of this one game playoff and feel it is unfair if we have to play a game against a team over 5 games behind us. That said if we win the one game playoff I see us going far. I think Cincy beats the Nats in best record. We get Cincy while the Nats will have to show they’re for real against sf.
But if we over take the Nats even better.
Dirty Dawg
September 21st, 2012
11:16 am
Gotta have a lot of guys pick up the pace…starting with Bourn…and Hanson, starting tonight, wouldn’t hurt. There are plenty of others, including Uggla, McCann and even Chipper. Sure, the expectations are that they’ll disappoint in the end…but then that’s why they play the games.
Don in TN
September 21st, 2012
11:34 am
“Beginning next week the Braves need to begin setting their rotation for the playoffs and getting the much needed rest for their starters”
IMHO, the Braves need to get into the playoff first. As Leo Durocher said, why should I save someone for tomorrow, it might rain tomorrow.
Bruce Bochy
September 21st, 2012
12:22 pm
Oh my. Golly gee. What to do. I still can’t believe that Manny was doping. I know that it seemed like overnight he had become the best player on the planet, but Manny said it was due to diet and exercise and I believed him. I just never thought something like dope was involved. Of course, I am also surprised that there are people who think another Giant, Barry Bonds, was a doper too.
Did anyone else suspect Manny was shooting up?
Skeezix
September 21st, 2012
12:24 pm
To answer your question Mark, no. Unfortunately, no.
Weyman C Wanamaker Jr, (A Great American)
September 21st, 2012
2:31 pm
Caption: “Does this look like a team in the early stages of collapsing?”
It sure does. When I first looked at it, I thought it last year’s Braves.
gatorsc1
September 22nd, 2012
12:21 am
No offense Mark, but i cannot wait for the day AJC replaces you with some new blood. I didnt read this article b/c i am tired of your same old boring crap. Its nothing personal b/c i think your a nice person, but I think moving to new city might do you some good. And us readers for that matter. Just being honest. Take care.
Deep Six Hanson
September 22nd, 2012
10:16 am
Demote Hanson, DFA Hanson, Release Hanson, Fire Roger & Fredi.
David
September 22nd, 2012
9:54 pm
tommy hanson is terrible
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