GM Frank Wren on the 2012 Braves: ‘We can go all the way’
This is how it ended in 2011. It'll be better this time. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
We start with the obvious: Yes, the Braves are in great shape, but they were in great shape a year ago and collapsed in a heap. They awoke Saturday with the same record (70-49) as they held after 119 games in 2011, and then they owned a six-game lead over St. Louis and San Francisco for the one and only wild-card berth.
This year there are two wild cards, and the Braves led Los Angeles by 5 1/2 games for the second WC entering Saturday night’s game at Turner Field. And they were 3 1/2 games closer to the first-place team in the National League East — Philadelphia last year, Washington now — than in August 2011.
Baseball Prospectus gauges the Braves’ chances of making the 2012 playoffs at 96.7 percent. So, to put it bluntly: Unless this team authors a flop of historic dimensions for the second consecutive year — and what are the odds of that? — it will qualify for the postseason. And what’s apt to happen then?
Said Frank Wren, the general manager: “[The playoffs are] a function of when do you play well, and if we’re playing well then clearly we’ve got a team that can go all the way.”
He means to a World Series championship, something the Atlanta Braves managed in 1995 but never since. Given that the Braves haven’t won a playoff series since 2001, and given that this team hasn’t had a sniff of first place in its division since May 21, that might sound ambitious. It shouldn’t.
The Braves have the second-best record in baseball since the All-Star break, just ahead of the Nationals, whom they’re chasing, and just behind the Reds, whom they might well face in the Division Series. The Braves have lost one of the past 12 series. After 81 games, they were three games above .500; they were 21 above as of Saturday afternoon.
Said Wren: “We’re playing good baseball. We’re catching the ball really well; we have speed, and our bullpen has been very good. And our starting pitching has rounded into shape. We’re seeing the consistency we didn’t see earlier in the season.”
Then this: “We’re also really good in situational hitting, the two-out hits. We’re really good in situations that are characteristic of good teams.”
Through 119 games, these Braves have been much better at scoring (558 runs) than they were a year ago (498 runs) but less good at preventing runs (464, as opposed to 435 in 2011). But the rotation that powered the Braves through the first four months of last season had begun to fray by August. Tommy Hanson worked his final start on Aug. 6, and Jair Jurrjens would throw his last pitch of 2011 on Aug. 30.
Wren: “There was more concern about our starting pitching a year ago, and our lineup had more holes. And we didn’t play as good defensively.”
By the end of August 2011, the Braves were wobbling. (Though the Cardinals’ chase wouldn’t take wings until they swept the Braves in early September.) The 2012 Braves are gathering strength. They mightn’t boast a real No. 1 starter, but they have enough rotational options that they won’t get caught short this time. Closer Craig Kimbrel, who blew three saves in September, is on pace to work 61 games, not the 79 of last season. And this offense generates enough runs that not every game is a hairbreadth thing.
With Ben Sheets and Paul Maholm and Kris Medlen in the rotation and Reed Johnson on the bench, these Braves are better than last year’s team. That doesn’t mean they still can’t blow this, but the belief here is that they won’t. (For the record, the belief here was that the 2011 Braves would still make the playoffs with two games remaining.) They’d have to fall apart even more comprehensively than they did a year ago, and I’m not sure that’s possible.
By Mark Bradley
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143 comments Add your comment
Wink
August 19th, 2012
1:24 pm
By the way what a happen to the sensational rookie shortstop who hurt his pinky,… is he still among the living Braves?
1991 braves
August 19th, 2012
1:30 pm
What do you really expect Wren to say?? The team that i put together is not good enough to make the playoffs? Don’t think he is that stupid. But he is drinking his own cool-aid, and when you have a manger like Fredi and no dominant starter, it is hard to win in the playoffs. Especially if they have to win a one game do or die with Hudson as the starter. For all the braves fans that are drinking the same cool-aid, you will get a preview of what the playoffs will look like when the braves go to Wash. for a 3 game series Monday. The braves will get to throw their 3 best pitchers now, Hudson, Maholm, and Medlen. However they are getting the Nats best 3 starters, and the braves will be favored to loss all 3 games. Braves fans have learned something Wren has no clue about, and that is pitching wins in the playoffs, and Wren has put together a rotation with no #1 starter, and no dominant starter. The only world series Wren will see is from his sofa at home, but he will get an up close and personal look at a true world series team Monday night. Unfortunately, it want be the braves.
Mister Frisky
August 19th, 2012
1:39 pm
Next year is the year that Braves can win it all,here is the formula.Chipper,Bourn,Lowe $ all gone.Trade Mc Cann, trade Uggla even if you have to throw in a young gun pitcher,trade Hudson.Get a Rod Barajas type to platoon at catcher.Prado 2b,Francisco to 3b.Get a huge bat for LF,a professional hitter for CF.And finally,sign a power pitching #1 starter.Even cheap ass Liberty Media can make this happen.
Dwayne C
August 19th, 2012
1:48 pm
My predictions:
The Atlanta Braves do not catch the Washington Nationals. The “Nats” win the NL East.
The Atlanta Braves do qualify for the post season, losing the wild card playoff elimination game.
Braves GM Frank Wrong, er Wren and Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez give media interviews in which their comments, which sound like something read off an index card, touch on a good overall season and obviously falling short of their expectations. “Falling short of expectations” will in fact be Frank Wren’s legacy as the Braves GM ten years from now, regardless of whether this man is still Braves GM or not. As for Fredi Gonzalez, I fully expect this portly buffoon to still be in the Braves dugout in ten years as teams under Gonzalez will manage to produce winning seasons albeit mostly non playoff seasons…which is plenty good enough for Liberty Media Group, the owners of this team.
WeBurn
August 19th, 2012
2:45 pm
The REAL question is, will we be able to win a one-game playoff? We won’t have a dominant starter going for us that day, and how will they react to the pressure? We saw an example last year of their pressure handling, not good.
Reality
August 19th, 2012
2:49 pm
The Braves will never go all the way with Uggla in the lineup. Average defensivley and an abomination at the plate. He may be the worst purchase of this decade. Hitting a powerful 212 and always swings at first pitch when men are on base. He is a detriment to the club. Move him the the eight spot and forget about him or better, to the bench and play Prado at second.
1966
August 19th, 2012
2:58 pm
Can of Corn:
Move back to Chicago bitch
Time to say goodbye
August 19th, 2012
3:46 pm
Why is Dan Uggla’s .210 batting average is stil in the lineup? Also, you would think that a Professional Baseball player would be discipline enough to attempt to hit the ball to the left side of the field if the other team is willing to give it to you, B McCann. It’s time to think about it.
SOS Braves
August 19th, 2012
3:49 pm
Way to go you idiot manager. Leave Minor in and they dont score again, but of course these no hitting idiots will not score anyway. Glad to see McFat’s .229 average back in there.
Train Wreck Bystander
August 19th, 2012
4:02 pm
Just how are playoff chances calculated anyways?
ESPN’s standings page has been listing them all year long. After Saturday’s games they have the Braves at 93.0%.
Marvin Mangrum
August 19th, 2012
4:06 pm
Dont mean to be a smarty, but right now “all the way” is looking like playing 162 games. Id be much happier if they went just a tab bit further. Ill tell you this tho, Uggla is maybe the flashiest popper upper I ever saw. I mean all that goo under the eyes, hitting them majestic, just majestic first pitch popups, wow. Almost enuf to bat near 210. Man, what a great grab, 210 BA, 20 HR and by golly near 50 RBIs, wow, what a deal. They will not catch the Nats they may not even beat the Pirates and a one day playoff, yea thats the ticket.
Dawg Reporter
August 19th, 2012
4:08 pm
Wish I could believe they have a chance. Fact is, th
Dawg Reporter
August 19th, 2012
4:14 pm
Fact is, the Braves cannot win a series versus a contender and have rarely done so in years. Losing two of three to the Dodgers adds to my point. Playoffs? One and done just like every playoff since 1997. Must be a curse. No chance this team can be included in pennant-winning discussions. Not enough killer instinct in the clubhouse. Who is better? Reds, Nats, hated Dodgers, Pirates, Giants.
Dawg Reporter
August 19th, 2012
4:17 pm
Dwayne C, you nailed it! You should write for the AJC online instead of these brown-nosed smoke-blowers.
The sun in is my eyes
August 19th, 2012
4:17 pm
“We could go all the way”….ROTFLMAO
No collapse…..McCann 4 for last 40…..Freeman 3 for last 25….Prado leaves Bourn on 3rd with < 2 outs in each of last 2 games. Heyward can't catch fly balls…Braves have proven they can't hit above average pitching.
Dwayne C hit the nail on the head!
August 19th, 2012
4:34 pm
Dwayne C is right on the money – but for my hard earned money – it will never go to buy another ticket to see these lousy lazy Bravos as long as Fredi Gonzalez is the manager…..what a waste!
Time to watch something else on TV!
August 19th, 2012
4:43 pm
The Braves will collapse again. If you only get 3 hits against a pitcher with a 3.44 ERA, you are definitely in trouble. The Braves strand runners game after game. Pitchers are good but too many home run balls are served up. They just don’t have what it takes. And I also agree with Dwayne C. There owners and front office management simply doesn’t care. Team hasn’t been the same since Turner sold them.
ugafan13
August 19th, 2012
4:51 pm
What a sham…this team displayed all the reasons they will yet choke again in the last two games. Shoddy hitting with RISP, stupid defensive plays and poor manager decisions. Pitiful, just pitiful!
It's over now
August 19th, 2012
5:05 pm
Somehow, Dan has some allure that goes beyond his .210 BA (even with his Double to the SS last week) and his average fielding. The Front Office even went so far to get Janish to cover Dan’s lack of fielding. Even the media is having a time trying to spin anything good out our All-Star 2B.
double
August 19th, 2012
5:25 pm
Yeah! will they go all the way as contenders or spectators?
Former minor league player and current scout
August 19th, 2012
5:28 pm
Hard to win games when you strike 32 times in a three game series. The Braves struckout over double the amount of times the Dodgers did this weekend.
double
August 19th, 2012
5:28 pm
Wasted days and wasted nights,no not that Freddy.
Mister Frisky
August 19th, 2012
5:36 pm
Epic Collaspe The Sequel has begun folks.
ButterMilk Tuesdays
August 19th, 2012
5:38 pm
Yeah, it’s also hard to win when we’ve got Dumbo the Gonzo bringing in Durbin and Martinez in a 1 run game.
Former minor league player and current scout
August 19th, 2012
5:40 pm
Here’s a stat for you: this week the Braves have struck out an average of 1 time every 4 at bats 59 times in 230 at bats. These are inning killers.
Former minor league player and current scout
August 19th, 2012
5:49 pm
Buttermilk, it’s a trickle down effect, from the general manager to the manager. I know for a fact the Marlins contacted the Braves about trading Hanley Ramirez and Mike Dunn for Randall Delgado, Joe Tedroslavich, and Mycal Jones, with the Marlins picking up 50% of his remaining salary left on his contract. Guess everyone know what’s the Braves said.
T-Dawg
August 19th, 2012
6:11 pm
Several reasons I think this team is facing very difficult odds to “go all the way”
1. Still have a poor record against teams above .500. After today’s lost I think we are 6 games under .500. Five of those victories came against Arizona (barely a .500 team)
2. Uggla and McCann: Uggla needs to be strong coming into the playoffs and yet he still looks awful at the plate. We are almost in September and still….no real surge. McCann, for whatever reason (shoulder, slump) is almost as bad. This leaves a huge hole in our lineup and places a lot of pressure on Chipper for all of the production. He has been great so far but he can’t be the only one coming down to the playoffs.
3. Starting Pitching: No clear Ace and shutdown pitcher.
Peter
August 19th, 2012
6:36 pm
Well all this talk about not folding has me worried……. Any time a club says they are not folding means it is on everyone’s mind in the front office……… right down to the players.
That said …….yes we have huge holes in the line up currently at catcher, 2nd base, and SS.
Uggla has hustled……..I will give him that and the SS has played very well defensively, then not so sure in general about McCann…..maybe the pressure of free agency is not easy for him.
The road does seem their strength……so as a wild card team, maybe that is in their favor ?
rick debarr
August 19th, 2012
7:44 pm
If wren thinks this team can win a world series he’s got clabber for brains.
Buzz2011
August 19th, 2012
8:09 pm
The Nats aren’t the Mets, Marlins or even the Phils..The Nats are better than the Braves cand that is the way it is. The Braves may make the playoffs, but if so ‘ one and done”.
Skeezix
August 19th, 2012
8:30 pm
I guess FW has talked himself into believing that the Braves are that good.
Die hard Braves fan here but I don’t think we have enough offense to win the WS. I mean, Uggla has been an issue all season but now McCann is struggling. That is two big holes. Andrelton’s return (if he returns) offers promise, but will it be too late? The pitching is pretty darn good – but I don’t think it is good enough, with this offense, to win it all. Just hoping that we make it to the playoffs this year.
The Collapse Has Been Going Since.......
August 19th, 2012
8:31 pm
The Bravos collapse started when Fredi started managing…..or attempting to imitate a major league manager…….Havana Fats should be RUN out of town.
Buzzard's Luck
August 19th, 2012
8:33 pm
Hey kids It’s baseball and there will be more ebb and alow in the offense the rest of the way (hopefully more flow than ebb), it’s just the nature of the beast. From where I sit I see Huddie and Maholm as the only two certain survivors of this two week “tryout” at this point. Hanson didn’t look too bad the other night but probably not as good as the others, but he was just coming off the IL so should get the benefit of the doubt. In spite of the crappy results last night, Sheets pitched pretty well, 4 hits and 2 walks in 6 innings. Minor and Medlen have been pretty spectacular but being the most inexperienced I gotta believe Fredi will err on the side of guys that have been there the longest so, assuming no injuries and none of them fall flat in the next week and a half, I see Meds being the odd man out just due to his good work in the pen. It certainly wouldn’t be a popular decision but I just don’t see it playing out any other way, again assuming they all stay healthy and on course. Thoughts?
T-Dawg
August 19th, 2012
8:46 pm
Skeezix
August 19th, 2012
8:30 pm
I guess FW has talked himself into believing that the Braves are that good.
Die hard Braves fan here but I don’t think we have enough offense to win the WS. I mean, Uggla has been an issue all season but now McCann is struggling. That is two big holes. Andrelton’s return (if he returns) offers promise, but will it be too late? The pitching is pretty darn good – but I don’t think it is good enough, with this offense, to win it all. Just hoping that we make it to the playoffs this year.
Teams have won w/o great team hitting ( most recently the SF Giants) but we would need dominating pitching, which we don’t have.
Also, I’m okay with not having to count on our 7-9 hitters to win games but you’re right, McCann Freeman and Uggla wil have to snap out of the funk to even have a chance.
This is a lot of “ifs” to count on but at least we have a better shot than last year.
Hillbilly D
August 19th, 2012
8:56 pm
Once you get to the playoffs, it usually boils down to which team’s top 3 starters get hot. There’s a lot of baseball left to be played.
Wilbo
August 19th, 2012
9:51 pm
All the way where? Horse dung.
LakeDawg
August 19th, 2012
11:14 pm
“We can go all the way” No, they can’t.
ChopChamps95
August 20th, 2012
12:05 am
I agree with some other posts on here about Wren. I don’t really think he’s that stupid and would actually say he doesn’t like this team’s chances. This team is too good to suck and not get to the playoffs most years, but they aren’t good enough to win it all anytime in the near future. I do think the Braves having the 5th best record in baseball right now while having a terrible manager in Fredi Gonzalez is nothing short of absolutely outstanding work and they are winning in spite pf him being there, not because of him.
LAC
August 20th, 2012
1:08 am
Chicken wren is a DISGRACE, he should be fired this week !!!!!
This team has ZERO chance to win it all, None, Period !!!!
Next waive this WORTHLESS uggla, this guy is simply TERRIBLE, a 20 year old benchwarmer could help the club more than him !! He is making millions for doing NOTHING !!!!
Waive his ASAP !!!!!!!!!!! Plus Zach not lookin too good on the west coast for sure ???
Gritsfed
August 20th, 2012
2:13 am
I watched that game today vs. Dodgers and it looked like the Braves had once again gotten into that lets-all-hit-a-home run swing, mode. Lets hope that doesn’t happen again because that’s what got them into trouble down the stretch last year. The loss today to Billingsley wasn’t too surprising since he has been one of MLB’s best pitchers since the All-Star break. On the other hand, if the Braves are truly a playoff contender they HAVE TO beat some of these playoff caliber teams!!! They just lost the series to the Dodgers. Next come the Nats and Giants…….two teams with winning records and are playoff caliber. They MUST take one of these two series or they will start getting down on themselves–as will this fan–that they are a good team BUT NOT a playoff team.
Billy D
August 20th, 2012
7:50 am
I hope I am wrong but I feel this team is going to fold again. The signs are there . They can hold their own against the weaker teams but cannot win against the better teams ,just like last year. I think the problem is hitting. This team is not consistently good enough in the clutch,especially against good left handers. In my opinion the cgief problem is Uggla who is supposed to provide right handed power in the middle of the lineup but is a total dud who is just a useless body on offense. Too much pressure is put on the pitchers . Remember ,you cannot win zero to zero games. I see every game and its almost a sure thing that if the Braveas get behind early they will not come back. As I said I hope I an wrong but I think this road trip will kill them.
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