GM Frank Wren on the 2012 Braves: ‘We can go all the way’
This is how it ended in 2011. It'll be better this time. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
We start with the obvious: Yes, the Braves are in great shape, but they were in great shape a year ago and collapsed in a heap. They awoke Saturday with the same record (70-49) as they held after 119 games in 2011, and then they owned a six-game lead over St. Louis and San Francisco for the one and only wild-card berth.
This year there are two wild cards, and the Braves led Los Angeles by 5 1/2 games for the second WC entering Saturday night’s game at Turner Field. And they were 3 1/2 games closer to the first-place team in the National League East — Philadelphia last year, Washington now — than in August 2011.
Baseball Prospectus gauges the Braves’ chances of making the 2012 playoffs at 96.7 percent. So, to put it bluntly: Unless this team authors a flop of historic dimensions for the second consecutive year — and what are the odds of that? — it will qualify for the postseason. And what’s apt to happen then?
Said Frank Wren, the general manager: “[The playoffs are] a function of when do you play well, and if we’re playing well then clearly we’ve got a team that can go all the way.”
He means to a World Series championship, something the Atlanta Braves managed in 1995 but never since. Given that the Braves haven’t won a playoff series since 2001, and given that this team hasn’t had a sniff of first place in its division since May 21, that might sound ambitious. It shouldn’t.
The Braves have the second-best record in baseball since the All-Star break, just ahead of the Nationals, whom they’re chasing, and just behind the Reds, whom they might well face in the Division Series. The Braves have lost one of the past 12 series. After 81 games, they were three games above .500; they were 21 above as of Saturday afternoon.
Said Wren: “We’re playing good baseball. We’re catching the ball really well; we have speed, and our bullpen has been very good. And our starting pitching has rounded into shape. We’re seeing the consistency we didn’t see earlier in the season.”
Then this: “We’re also really good in situational hitting, the two-out hits. We’re really good in situations that are characteristic of good teams.”
Through 119 games, these Braves have been much better at scoring (558 runs) than they were a year ago (498 runs) but less good at preventing runs (464, as opposed to 435 in 2011). But the rotation that powered the Braves through the first four months of last season had begun to fray by August. Tommy Hanson worked his final start on Aug. 6, and Jair Jurrjens would throw his last pitch of 2011 on Aug. 30.
Wren: “There was more concern about our starting pitching a year ago, and our lineup had more holes. And we didn’t play as good defensively.”
By the end of August 2011, the Braves were wobbling. (Though the Cardinals’ chase wouldn’t take wings until they swept the Braves in early September.) The 2012 Braves are gathering strength. They mightn’t boast a real No. 1 starter, but they have enough rotational options that they won’t get caught short this time. Closer Craig Kimbrel, who blew three saves in September, is on pace to work 61 games, not the 79 of last season. And this offense generates enough runs that not every game is a hairbreadth thing.
With Ben Sheets and Paul Maholm and Kris Medlen in the rotation and Reed Johnson on the bench, these Braves are better than last year’s team. That doesn’t mean they still can’t blow this, but the belief here is that they won’t. (For the record, the belief here was that the 2011 Braves would still make the playoffs with two games remaining.) They’d have to fall apart even more comprehensively than they did a year ago, and I’m not sure that’s possible.
By Mark Bradley
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143 comments Add your comment
Bradley Curse
August 18th, 2012
9:04 pm
“Baseball Prospectus gauges the Braves’ chances of making the 2012 playoffs at 96.7 percent.”
unfortunately for Baseball Prospectus and the Braves, I don’t consider making the 1 game playoff “making the 2012 playoffs”, against the Pirates they might have a chance (though if they use Lefty Bedard or Wandy, the Braves are in trouble) but against the Cards in a 1 gamer, I don’t know if they would beat them or not
Mr. Mike
August 18th, 2012
9:06 pm
Fun with numbers. The total distance of Dodger hits tonight is about 1600 feet. And they only have four
ACE
August 18th, 2012
9:11 pm
Fredi has never played in the Major League. Has never taken a team to the playoffs. Why should we expect him too.
ACE
August 18th, 2012
9:13 pm
When he makes questionable moves the beat reporters won’t question him on it. They are afraid of getting kicked out of the clubhouse or not being invited on off season Harley rides.
Hy Ronatt.
August 18th, 2012
9:13 pm
Not like this, you won’t.
Mr. Mike
August 18th, 2012
9:16 pm
Fredi is not as bad a manager as all of you Fredi bashers make him out to be. He’s done a pretty good job with what he has to work with.
ACE
August 18th, 2012
9:17 pm
Fredi did get a nice chunk of change when he got his WS cut from the Cards.
ACE
August 18th, 2012
9:18 pm
@Mike, yea working with a 10 game last September was not enough.
ACE
August 18th, 2012
9:20 pm
Maybe this September he will have more to work with.
Mr. Mike
August 18th, 2012
9:30 pm
The Braves problem last year was they couldn’t hit at all for most of the season and especially down the stretch. The key this year will be if the starting rotation can hold it together for another month and a half.
Mark Bradley
August 18th, 2012
9:33 pm
Bottom of eighth. Braves have four hits, all doubles. Dodgers have four hits, all doubles times two.
Mr. Mike
August 18th, 2012
9:34 pm
I feel good about Medlen and Malholm. The rest not so much.
BRAVOFAN
August 18th, 2012
10:07 pm
The Braves will win the wildcard, but the problem is going to be they will face Burnett from Pitt at Turner Field where he has traditionally pitched well. I assume Hudson will go for the Braves. Anything can happen in a one game playoff scenario. Hudson Medlin, Malholm, I think Minor gets the other position out of default. I dont trust Hanson and while Sheets has been admorable in his come back, I think the experiment is over! Put Hanson in the bull pen.
Hy Ronatt.
August 18th, 2012
10:10 pm
Another wasted season. At least Spring Training is two weeks early next year.
Braves in last palce by Sept fist
August 18th, 2012
10:21 pm
They half 2 get out of last palce B 4 they can go all the way…….Loosers dont go all the way
Braves in last palce by Sept fist
August 18th, 2012
10:24 pm
U cant wint the division in last palce.
Joe Tess Fish House
August 18th, 2012
10:26 pm
Bradely why R U not showing my coments?
Wild card, another stupid move
August 18th, 2012
11:39 pm
Sheets arm is tired. No pitching for two years, two ML starts and then’hello Turner Field’. Of course he’s fatigued.
Meds, Huddy, Maholm and we’ll be fine in a playoff series. Anything from Sheets is a bonus, as is Minor.
MitchC
August 18th, 2012
11:41 pm
Mark, I agree with you that the 2012 Braves likely wont have the same failure as the 2011 team did. The thing is, it scares me to make predictions this early,.. because.. it is that.. early.
The first season I was a Braves fan, 1983, the Braves had a 71-46 record on the morning of August 13th, and owned a 6 1-2 game NL West lead over LA. Two days later, Bob Horner broke his wrist, the Braves went 17-28 the rest of the way, and finished 88[=74, 3 games out.
I’m not saying that will happen this time. Hopefully, last season’s meltodwn is fresh in their minds, so they will make it.. but.. I’m reminded of the 2007 and 2008 Mets, the team I love to rip on here. 7 games up with 17 to play in 2007, didnt make the postseason. A similar meltdown in 208.
One game at a time. there is a long way to go. Hopefully, at worst case, the Braves, even if they dont catch the Nats will play game 163. At best case, hopefully they will play much deeper into Oct than that.
JASon
August 18th, 2012
11:53 pm
Is the story about ellen degeneres copying miley cyrus’s haircut not the worst story in history. It is so bad that I am on the sports blog complaining about it.
DawgDad
August 19th, 2012
12:11 am
“We start with the obvious: Yes, the Braves are in great shape”
Not to belabor the OBVIOUS, but this team hasn’t won ANYTHING yet.
Mathematically, they have something like a 91% chance of reaching a one-game playoff, and a slight chance of catching the Nats. As we know, the games aren’t played in a classroom.
There’s a lot to like about this team. Many of the key players are very young and as compared to 2011 they have another year of experience. But they don’t really have an ace stopper, management can’t sort out the starting pitching, McCann is beat up again, the middle infield is hitting a combined .215 or so, the lineup in imbalanced and succeptible to lefties, and they rely far too much on a 40 year old one stumble away from the DL.
The Braves play hard and they’ve played well. The season isn’t over; the Braves have to prove they won’t fade down the stretch in September.
Sundrop Kid
August 19th, 2012
12:31 am
I see now that not only is ATL loaded with fans who are “dreamers”, but there are also plenty of media people, and Braves management who are in the “dreamer” category. What good does it do to get to a one game playoff if you don’t go any farther?
Chop Chop
August 19th, 2012
1:56 am
I wish Wren would shut up.
the truth
August 19th, 2012
2:08 am
It would be the ultimate collapse to not make the playoffs this year. They would have to lose spots to two teams and that would make last years failure look tame.
Keith
August 19th, 2012
3:47 am
Didn’t get to see the game.
Was sheets just mislocating his pitches….was he wild…or did he just make 4 mistakes?
In other words, was it as bad as the box score tells…or worse?
Bag Of Balls
August 19th, 2012
6:01 am
Here is Ben Sheets’ quote before Saturday night’s game. And I quote: “It’s not like it’s a dead arm, it’s more like it’s a dead body.” Now, that’s a guy I want on the mound if I’m Freddi during a pennant race!!
Fladawg
August 19th, 2012
8:12 am
I have a bad feeling that the “Ben Sheets experiment” may have yielded its last dividends for this year. I hope they re-sign him for next year but the six man experiment for this year.. .?
longtimefan
August 19th, 2012
8:31 am
Ace, if your criteria for gauging a successful manager is he must have previously guided a team to the playoffs, then you would have had no confidence in any manager in the history of the game. Everyone has to have a first, obviously.
longtimefan
August 19th, 2012
8:35 am
I see Joe Tess has a new moniker. I don’t believe in banning posters unless they cross that imaginary line of acceptable taste, but I will come out and just say he comes off as an idiot. If he posts to get a rise he needs to get a life.
dale morphy
August 19th, 2012
8:50 am
I am excited. I hope and think Fredi learned from last year’s mistake of burning out his three best relief pitchers. He has really been spreading the ball around which has kept O’Flaherty and Kimbrel fresher and gives the other guys more confidence. I also like the 6 man rotation given the fragile nature of 4 out of 6 starters. I think the defense has been more fundamentally sound and the base running has been more aggressive than last year. All that said, starting pitching and situational hitting win playoff games. If Bourn, Prado and Chipper continue to get on base and Heyward and Freeman keep getting them over and in, the Braves have a great shot. The wild cards are McCann and Uggla. If they somehow hit 250 with good slugging #s down the stretch and into the playoffs, look out!!
longtimefan
August 19th, 2012
8:52 am
The bloggers with all the negative comments about the Braves not making the playoffs are not Braves fans. You can have your opinion, but when it flies in the face of reason and odds it makes you a naysayer, not me a homer. Look at the Braves: 4th best pitching in NL, 3rd best hitting and best fielding team. Great bullpen, dominant closer. Deep, if not spectacular, SP. Nice blend of veterans and young players. They have a favorable schedule the rest of the year and may yet catch the Nationals. And Dawgdad, not to belabor the obvious, but no team in MLB has won anything this season. That’s why we have the playoffs.
Tuff Love
August 19th, 2012
8:56 am
r u serious? All the way? This team will not make it out of the wild card playoff. See the inability for the Braves to get a runner in from 3rd with less than 2 outs two games in a row. Both times, Prado looks completely over matched when good pitchers bear down. Why is Ross doing in the games? Freeman 2 for the last 200….
longtimefan
August 19th, 2012
9:07 am
Dawgdad, statistically we have more than a “sight chance” of winning the division. Actually it is 29.5% according to coolstanding.com which is probably the best sport site calculating these sort of things. But teams and players are not #s and being an unabashed Braves Fan I believe the chances of my team winning the WS are as good as any team and much better than most. Fourth best record in MLB backs that up. If you can’t root for your team when the Braves are playing as well as they are now, when are you going to believe in them?
longtimefan
August 19th, 2012
9:13 am
Tuff Love: the Braves lead the NL in getting the runner in from 3rd with 2 out. You can;t seriously point out one or two instances and say that makes it a trend. From that logic I would say “It rained last tuesday morning and therefore it going to rain every Tuesday morning”. That’s anecdotal thinking. Not logical.
willie
August 19th, 2012
9:15 am
Hudson, Maholm and Medlin not sexy but combined season stats right at 3 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. This is a solid 3 for the playoffs if we can get through the one game play-in. I pray it’s not the Dodgers who could throw Kershaw at us. Long way to go!
Ted M
August 19th, 2012
9:20 am
Another similarity between this and last year is Brian McCann as he is really struggling late in the season.
Mr. Hankey
August 19th, 2012
9:34 am
I love the Braves about like I loved my stepfather. Not so much. I watch them, I listen, I cheer but there’s no way in hell I’m going to get psyched for the playoffs. History teaches and proves time and time and time and time again that the Braves will “withdraw” prematurely just as you are reaching
climax and leave you grasping for anything with only a mess on the sheets to prove that you had a chance with the homecoming queen.
gcs
August 19th, 2012
10:23 am
The Braves need to win the division. They do NOT want to be in that inane one-game wild card.
In any single game on any day, the worst team can beat the best. It happens all the time. Put the 82-loss Astros on the field with the 74-win Nats and Houston could be advancing.
D from Charleston, SC
August 19th, 2012
10:34 am
AWESOME position by position breakdown of the Nationals vs Braves! Who would you rather have at 1B, LaRoche or Freeman? At 3B, Chipper or Zimmerman? LF, Prado or Morse? Which team has the better everyday 1-8 in their lineup? Find out here at http://bravesbanter.com/?p=114. Don’t Stop the Chop!!!
longtimefan
August 19th, 2012
10:39 am
Ted M- Why do want to focus on the one-or few- things that are similar to last year when some many other aspects of team are improved?
MJ
August 19th, 2012
11:13 am
Nice crowd at the Ted yesterday. We can’t win ‘em all. Today is a critical game. Braves fans are really supporting the team which is great. It’s going to be a great run to the end of the season. I’m really glad the Chipper bashers have left him him alone – he’s proving once again that at his age, in his last year, he is still the one player in the line-up that is the most dangerous. I’m glad he’s having a great year, and the fans are supporting him. We all know he’s a lock for the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. He’s leading the team right now, and is going to do everything possible to make sure that the guys are ready to play every night. It’s all about pitching right now – if the starters perform, we’ll be fine. Hopefully Bmac can come back at least 90% at the plate – the team needs his bat. Ok – let’s go beat the Dodgers!
Son of Sammy Davis Jr, Jr
August 19th, 2012
12:37 pm
The Baves can go to the World Series. If they buy tickets.
jj
August 19th, 2012
12:39 pm
I hope so. The Braves have written the book on playoff collapses. Remember coming back from NIY two games up in the World Series then choking?
Jason
August 19th, 2012
12:42 pm
Take out Fredi, Insert Terry Pendleton, hello world series.
Peter R.
August 19th, 2012
12:45 pm
I wonder how good of weed Frank is smoking to make that statement. If Fuggly would cooperate, then maybe, but he still chokes on the reg. I think we’ll probably go 17-25 the rest of the year considering just how hot/cold this team can be. The Braves should go the development route and get this team in shape to make a run in two years with our young talent because we can’t out spend the Phillies or other big name franchises for the premier free agents. I don’t see how else we can win asides from making the most out of the farm system. 90 million just doesn’t take a team that far in modern day baseball. Thank Selig for this f—ed up model baseball operates under. I don’t blame Frank really, who knew Fuggly wouldn’t be able to handle playing somewhere where the fans actually care. Down in Miami, I don’t think anyone gives a damn so it’s easier to play ball down there.
Ralph
August 19th, 2012
12:53 pm
I quit following the Braves the last week of September last year – it was obvious they weren’t playoff material even if they backed into it. It was just as well they collapsed completely as they would have embarrassed themselves even more in the first round of playoffs.
I’m still following this year until/unless they start to collapse again. I refuse to watch the final demise if they start circling the drain.
Billy
August 19th, 2012
1:02 pm
Really haven’t cared about the Braves in 12 years. The 90s were impressive; afterwards, completely boring. Forecasts are like the weather; they can tell what’s happening tomorrow, maybe the next day, but past that it’s little more than guesswork. I’ll be glad if the Braves win a WS, but I’d like to see the Cubs or another team win it that hasn’t won it in decades. It would be nice for Chicago to wiin, especially since a certain resident there will be retired from politics in 78 days; they might need a pick-me-up to compensate for that…
Brava
August 19th, 2012
1:11 pm
Why would you waste the time to even comment here, Billy? I’m sure the Cubs could use your support on one of their fan blogs… oh, and good riddance. The Braves don’t need fair-weather fans.
Dawg Haus
August 19th, 2012
1:13 pm
I wouldn’t rule the Braves out this year. Their pitching has been inconsistent, but Maholm and Medlen in the rotation will really help. They’re scoring more runs than last year (and seem to be better at clutch hitting) and are running the bases as well as anyone in baseball. I’m cautiously optimistic.
Wink
August 19th, 2012
1:20 pm
Mark, we are talking about an Atlanta team here…we really fear the spotlight. I can’t imagine a similar ending to last year, but you just never no with Atlanta teams.
The Braves have only had a few moments in positive sunlight: The Sid Bream moment, the Deion playing two sports in one day moment, the David Justice homer moment and the Hank Aaron 755 homer moment…we have been on the other side more times than you can count…if any team is capable of owning such historic moments of collapse or failure it an Atlanta team.
Even when we won 14? division titles we only won one WS title. Win two or three more WS titles during that run and they go down as one of the best sports dynasties in sports.
I am afraid we will end up in the one game playoff, as the first team to be eliminated under the new 2 Wild Card format.
Good Luck to them though!