Numbers give Braves edge over the Nats in … baserunning?
"Even when I'm 40 years old, I'll still have better wheels than you, Rochy." (AP photo)
There’s a metric for everything in baseball. The fun ones are those that tell us something we might not have known just by using our eyeballs. Here, courtesy of an ESPN Insider post by Ben Lindbergh of Baseball Prospectus, is a key reason why the Braves might just overhaul Washington to take the National League East.
The Braves are very good at running the bases. The Nationals are not.
From Lindbergh:
Baseball Prospectus offers a stat called baserunning runs, which measures the number of runs a player adds or subtracts by advancing more or fewer bases than expected given his number of opportunities. The Braves and Nationals couldn’t be further apart on the BRR leader board. Atlanta is baseball’s best baserunning team with 13.7 BRR, while Washington is the worst with -14.9. The Braves have been almost four runs better than the next-best baserunning team, while the Nats fall a full five runs below the next worst.
Some of this will not be surprising. If you pay attention to the Nats’ games, you’ll see the overly aggressive rookie Bryce Harper getting thrown out a different base every night. (I exaggerate for effect.) And you’ll doubtless have noted that Jason Heyward — like Harper, Heyward was a hugely touted prospect — is truly outstanding in his baserunning. But Michael Bourn, according to BP’s BRR, is even better. Lindbergh again:
[Bourn and Heyward] rank first and third in the majors, respectively, in individual BRR. Bourn and Heyward have combined for 15.4 runs on the bases, which means their teammates have been a net negative.
I strongly advise you to read the entire article — the link requires registration — but I leave you with one more nugget. Lindbergh advises that Chipper Jones, who’s 40, has the lowest BRR rating among Braves at minus-2.6. Even so, he’s better than Adam LaRoche, the former Brave who plays first base for the Nats and who is eight years younger. LaRoche’s rating is minus-3.7.
LaRoche also happens to be Chipper’s best hunting buddy. Bragging rights!
Update: Mr. Lindbergh was kind enough to Tweet that the overly aggressive Bryce Harper I mentioned above has, in Mr. Lindbergh’s words, “actually been one of the few good baserunners on a bad running team.” (Harper’s BRR is 35th-best in baseball.) Another example of eyeballs — via MLB.com’s At Bat iPad app, I’ve watched a lot of the Nats the past few weeks — not necessarily telling the true tale. Which is why Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs come highly recommended.
By Mark Bradley
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111 comments Add your comment
jay
August 17th, 2012
1:13 pm
I’m pretty sure JTB was being sarcastic. Heyward has really come into his own this year with the baserunning. He doesn’t seem that fast, but those long strides really do get him going.
Sonny Clusters
August 17th, 2012
1:15 pm
We are not offended by that at all, reckingball. While we do not own a plaid trucker shirt, we could have been wearing one and nobody would ever know because this is a blog. Very few people know that we keep such good company and when we was talking with Bertrand Russell one time when we was a baby he said something like, “Collective fear stimulates herd instinct, and tends to produce ferocity toward those who are not regarded as members of the herd.” We’ve always remembered that and that’s a reason we don’t dress like everybody else.
longtimefan
August 17th, 2012
1:21 pm
The bloggers can write anything they want; I’m assuming posts outside the bounds of propriety will be censored by AJC. Some feel comfortable posting drivel or sarcastic putdowns of iconic players disguised as humor but act offended when called on their game. I doubt these same people who hid behind the anonymity of internet handles would spout the same bs directly to Chipper, McCann, Uggla, Heyward and others. It is so easy to criticize; I suspect the root of it comes down to one the big 7-envy. Hate it for you they make Millions-they can hit the 95 mph fastball.
lefty fielder
August 17th, 2012
1:24 pm
Most all of the people I’ve seen wearing plaid trucker shirts usually quote Roy Mercer.
C From Marietta
August 17th, 2012
1:26 pm
@Jtb
Jason Heyward:
.275 Avg. .350 OBP 16 SB 20 HR 60 RBI .493 SLG
Bryce Harper:
.245 Avg .321 OBP 13 SB 10 HR 32 RBI .396 SLG
Heyward is not lazy BTW.. I guess you missed the hussle double last night?
Joe
August 17th, 2012
1:31 pm
Mark-
Give us your best faith guess- what’s it going to cost to re-sign Bourne? Do the Braves have that in them? He’s become such a key player. And yet, at the length of contract he’ll demand, it’s a real risk for a speed player (speed is the first thing to go as an athlete ages).
Sonny Clusters
August 17th, 2012
1:35 pm
Well, our shirt right now is checkered and crisply pressed, we might add. At least we are not a longtime fan who complains of “anonimity” of people’s handles. If we blogged nonsense like longtime fan, we’d want to be anonymous, too. That’s why we always post using our name, Sonny Clusters. You can tell it’s us by our name and our punctuation and good grammar. As for having some opinions and expressing them we could always just say, golly, gee, really?!! When a Clusters pays to see baseball he wants to see good baseball and that’s what’s been happening most of the time this season. We hope it will continue because we remember what happened last year and so does a longtimefan if he really is a longtimefan.
Sonny Clusters
August 17th, 2012
1:42 pm
The problem with a couple little fellas on here who disagree with us is they want to tell us what to think. If they was growing up and never learned how to think it may be because somebody was telling them what to think like they are trying to do with us. If everybody thought like them we’d never have landed a man on Mars and and brought Francisco back from there to play third base.
Sundrop Kid
August 17th, 2012
1:45 pm
Apparently 2 or 3 posters on here missed JHey not hustling a couple of nights ago on that third out to end the game, when he swung at strike three. It took him about 10 steps to get going and then he wasn’t running full force when he neared the bag. He just assumed an easy out. That would have tied the game had he been safe at first which he missed by about a second or so. Not saying that he doesn’t hustle most of the time, but he takes some days off now and then and slacks off. Got to go all out all the time, especially when it means the difference in a win or a loss.
JAFO
August 17th, 2012
1:56 pm
SC just bringin the high heat today.
Stinger 2
August 17th, 2012
2:03 pm
Clusters: I have never tried to tell you how to think. In my responses to your countless negative posts about Braves players and management, I have simply told you what I think about them.
You obviously, like anyone else can think anything you wish. One final comment…I believe your intent is to enhance your followers on these blogs
by incorporating your own self-styled humor and gain attention. That is fine with me so don`t think I am saying anything against this.
JNick
August 17th, 2012
2:04 pm
Harper = grossly overrated…
Stac
August 17th, 2012
2:07 pm
I can see it now, Medlen back in the pen, Sheets sitting out and the rotation consisting of
Hudson, Hanson, JJ, Minor and someone else that Gonzo seems to like. He is more like Bobby Cox then he should be. Plays anyone who he think can do the job instead of who actually DOES do the job. I really hope the Braves get a new manager after this season. Gonzalez is not a good manager.
BravesWin
August 17th, 2012
2:07 pm
Agreed, Stinger…Sonny’s class-clown act is not just wearing thin, it’s wearing stupid. Nobody thinks you’re funny, Sonny. Just annoying.
Stinger 2
August 17th, 2012
2:10 pm
I appreciate your comments BravesWin.
bulldogbubba
August 17th, 2012
2:11 pm
Does anyone think we could trade for Padres 3rd baseman Chase Headley to replace Chipper.What do you think?
oldfart
August 17th, 2012
2:13 pm
I just hate to see an entire season come down to a single game playoff, play-in, whatever for any team. Baseball is in bad need of a real Commissioner that is not also an owner by proxy.
bulldogbubba
August 17th, 2012
2:13 pm
Sonny’s funny and some people take life too serious. Go Braves
lefty fielder
August 17th, 2012
2:17 pm
i like bulldogbubba . . . do you own a trucker shirt?
SSIgator
August 17th, 2012
2:17 pm
BravesWin
Stinger 2 -
“Where humor is concerned there are no standards – no one can say what is good or bad, although you can be sure that everyone will.“
John Kenneth Galbraith (1908 – 2006)
Relax guys
Sonny Clusters
August 17th, 2012
2:24 pm
Well, sticks and stone can break our bones but, seriously, why would you want to bother with us? Just skip over us like we do you. Baseball fans are baseball fans and the degree to which any of us subscribe to the team will vary. As for us, we bet we follow the Braves as well or better than most and we have paid for a lot of tickets over the years when we wasn’t the guest of one of the players or management. We’ve been that, too. As for speaking to the players, we’ve also done that and have had meals with some of them and know some of them quite well. Still, we don’t find our heroes on the baseball field. To those that do, golly, gee, try to expand your horizons. And to the little fella now posting under Stinger2 we are reminded of something else Carl Sagan had to say, “People are not stupid. They believe things for reasons. The last way for skeptics to get the attention of bright, curious, intelligent people is to belittle or condescend or to show arrogance toward their beliefs.” Now, have a nice day.
Stinger 2
August 17th, 2012
2:24 pm
SSIgator: Did you read my post carefully? I did not say that Clusters humor is good or bad did I? I only stated my thoughts about the intent of his humor.
I will say again….I don`t care what he thinks or says on his post. I do care about Braves players and management and will continue to voice my thoughts when he says something negative.
Sonny Clusters
August 17th, 2012
2:26 pm
We got filtered again and we was being nice to the little fella when it happened. As our REAL mama would say to our pretend little mama, “Bless your heart.” That’s southern for, “it’s a shame your thoughts are not very deep.” Again, have a nice day.
Yunel Asscobar
August 17th, 2012
2:30 pm
Two comments:
1. I enjoy Sonny Clusters
2. I wish he, or Terry Francona, would become the next manager of the Braves. To the best of my knowledge, I’ve not seen Francona in a trucker shirt; two pocket or otherwise.
Go Braves!
JAFO
August 17th, 2012
2:37 pm
Did we land a man on Mars SC? Carl and I missed that one. Point taken.
OTP
August 17th, 2012
2:38 pm
That is amazing! All the more reason to hang on to Bourn.
JNick
August 17th, 2012
2:47 pm
Headley would cost us at least Teheran AND Delgado, IMO…probably another lower level prospect too. I don’t see SD trading him at all though – he’s about all the offense they have.
Sonny Clusters
August 17th, 2012
2:52 pm
Some of our best work is sitting in Mark’s filter and nobody’s going to see it. We outlined for everybody just what will happen over the next 3 series and we made our predictions for where the Braves will finish this year. We also revealed some personal information about our upcoming book and appearances at Turner Field. One more thing, we was reading little fella’s post and came across this . . . “Clusters: I have never tried to tell you how to think. . . .You obviously, like anyone else can think anything you wish.” That’s all we need for redemption! Now life can go on. Thanks, little buddy. Go Braves!
Bob the Blogger
August 17th, 2012
2:56 pm
Back on the subject of baserunning, I’ve seen McCann stretch a double into a single.
bulldogbubba
August 17th, 2012
3:06 pm
Truckers wear shirts? Go Dogs
Heisenberg
August 17th, 2012
3:12 pm
Truckers wear shirts?
Indeed they do. Plaid ones with 2 pockets on the front and the sleeves cut off.
longtimefan
August 17th, 2012
3:21 pm
As a longtimefan following the Braves since 1966, I have seen a lot of players come and go and have watched many games. Chipper has been one of the most outstanding and celebrated players of this and any other era. Any blogger can post their opinion contrary, just as you are free to join the Flat Earth Society. But expressing your contrarian opinion on certain topics simply makes those individuals look petty, silly or ignorant about the game of baseball. Chipper is a Braves icon, future HOF player and one of the best hitters the Game has seen.
GTT
August 17th, 2012
3:23 pm
Sonny Clusters is really Norman Arey. Betcha.
WhoCares?
August 17th, 2012
3:24 pm
Heyward continues to impress. He’s learning and he has a lot of talent. Great asset for the Braves, and boo to those bloggers who were calling for him to be traded earlier this season.
lefty fielder
August 17th, 2012
3:35 pm
bulldogbubba . . . just the uppity ones
Gil in Mechanicsville
August 17th, 2012
3:39 pm
Wow, I never knew I could acquire such astute fashion advice just from reading a sports blog, especially one originating in Atlanta… Now it looks as if I will have to completely redo my entire wardrobe as I have learned plaid is no longer the “new black”. Does this mean I will have to also do away with my matching cammo and bib overall ensemble too? Sish, just when I was getting them broke in good too.
Now baseball… As a long time reader of Sonny Clusters and his first cousin by another mother, Jimmy Smith, I have learned, learnt if you are southern, bless your heart, not to take his envy of all things Chipper to heart. He is still upset Chipper shot his pet moose by mistake and just also has a phobia about people who wear seal skin boots.
Anyway, baseball…. Having been forced to watch many Nationals’ feeds on TV folks should count their lucky stars that they do not have to listen to Bob Carpenter do the play by play of the Braves games. I cringe at hearing the phrase “See you later” every time a Gnat hits a ball beyond the fence. That said, I have learned , learnt, see above explanation…. that as long as you touch them all, it matters little as to base running ability when hitting home runs.
No matter, the base running prowess of Brian McCann can be summed up as station to station. I just wish our illustrious manager would allow for his should to get better rather than continue to allow for him to struggle every at bat.
Mr. Mike
August 17th, 2012
4:03 pm
My best guess is that Bourne is playing somewhere else next year. Boras will ask for the keys to the kingdom. Maybe Simmons could bat leadoff.
D-Man
August 17th, 2012
4:09 pm
None of this matters unless you make the playoffs. I know this is just a topic of discussion, BUT I’m just saying. I’m tired of just being an exciting REGULAR season team, come October – let’s make it happen captain….GO BRAVES!
D-Man
August 17th, 2012
4:11 pm
and oh yea, we get Andrelton Simmons back soon, while they will be shutting Sharpsburg down hmmmm…
D-Man
August 17th, 2012
4:15 pm
“One last thing, I like ice cream but I have to eat it when it’s real cold. I don’t like it when it starts to melt and gets all, ummm, wait there’s a word for it…oh yea Melky. It’s not as good.”
Signed, Ms. Karma
BravesWin
August 17th, 2012
4:17 pm
The gnats will not shut Strasbourg down. Pitch-count and/or innings pitched restrictions, maybe, but not take him out, as long as they hold a significant lead in the division.
WeBurn
August 17th, 2012
4:20 pm
Heyward is gonna get PAID if he keeps it up.
Bradley, is J-Hey our best overall position player?
Mr. Mike
August 17th, 2012
4:26 pm
Heyward and Freeman are both gonna get paid. We should try to sign both of them longterm now as opposed to later. Heyward will get a sgnificant raise next year as I believe he is arbitration eligible after this season.
Paul
August 17th, 2012
4:27 pm
Last time I checked, the Braves had produced 30 more runs than the Nationals so far this year. So, it’s not about the total runs — it’s about starting pitching. The last month has been the best so far this year in that category for the Braves. If the starting pitching holds up through September, I think we overtake the Nationals. Especially with a bullpen that is not worn dead this year.
BravesWin
August 17th, 2012
4:27 pm
Ownership is going to have to pony up to keep a good thing going. Bourn, Heyward, Freeman, Prado, et al are going to have to be covered so we can hang on to the other, younger talent we have in the wings. Do I think that’s going to happen? Well, umm…umm…
GermanBravesFan
August 17th, 2012
5:10 pm
Long time no posting, but for what it’s worth: Sonny Clusters rules… at least he’s funny and isn’t taking himself too seriously. Keep those posts coming, Mr. Clusters!
southgabrave
August 17th, 2012
5:23 pm
Bourn will NOT be in a Braves uniform next year unless he takes a huge discount t stay. He will get between 16-19 mil a year for no less than 5 years. Two things there, one do you want to sign him that long? His game is speed, and his legs may or may not go around 35. The second thing is are you (Braves probably wont) going make Bourn your highest paid player? I like Bourn as much as anyone, but we will have to find a cheaper, speedy, defensive CF that can hit. There are cheaper options that will work (no not as good as Bourn) if Wren looks hard. There may be a guy in the minors system for another team, we know nothing about. One thing I have noticed is Bourn tails off the last third of the season yearly. He has done so this year (he may need some rest….Hey Fredi) and he did last year in mid August on. No not badly but somewhat from his first half. If he could sign for 13-15 mil a year for 3 yrs with mutual options for the next 2 years I would say heck yea! I cant see tying 16-19 mil per for that long on player off his age. The Braves are going to have to come up with money for Heyward, Prado, Freeman, Medlen, Kimbrell, O’Flare for contracts during that same time period. Plus you will have give raises to your other players. They can afford everyone if you pay a few 16+ mil a year, especially one that will be on the backside of his career in 3+ years.
The Braves will need to lock Kimbrell up, buying out his first few years of free agency and his arbitration years. He will not be cheap and between him and Bourn will who do you want? See the problem here? The only fix is a new ownership.
If the
DetroitBraves
August 17th, 2012
9:25 pm
Good article Mark. The run differential suggests the Nats are a better team but every advantage counts. I believe Bourn rates very highly defensively as well. Those are two areas where the Braves figure to be worse when he walks in the offseason but it’s fun to watch while it lasts.
COOPER
August 17th, 2012
9:28 pm
Gonzalez has got to be the dumbest manager in Pro ball. You have a well rested bullpen , Hanson is over 100 pitches and you leave him in until LA get their 3RD run. It made no since to keep Hanson in this game.
DetroitBraves
August 17th, 2012
9:33 pm
@Brandon Lee, the Braves anemic offense has scored the second most runs in the league coming into tonight’s actions. If that’s anemic, with all due respect, what exactly would you consider acceptable production?