Six men in the rotation? The Braves say yes; I say, ‘I wouldn’t’
Is keeping Medlen in the rotation worth the risk of meddling? (AJC photo by Brant Sanderlin)
For half a season the Braves couldn’t find enough good starting pitchers. Now they have so many they’re planning to deploy a six-man rotation. They’re not doing this because they’re desperate. They’re doing it because they think it’ll make a rotation that has finally begun to function work even better.
Here we return to a fairly key phrase: “A rotation that has finally begun to function.”
And here we note: The Braves are tinkering with what, to get ungrammatical, not only ain’t broke but what, not so long ago, was a mess.
The Braves see it this way: Tommy Hanson is due back from the disabled list, and it would make no sense to ship him to the bullpen or Gwinnett. Hanson has proved he’s a big-league starter. (Even in this lesser season, he has won 12 games.) Kris Medlen, deputized as Hanson’s replacement, has won two of his three starts with an ERA of 2.16, and the Braves like that, too.
Tim Hudson is a rotation fixture. The retread Ben Sheets has made himself one (five quality starts in six tries). Paul Malholm was imported to be a starter, and he’s 2-for-2 in quality starts since his arrival and 8-for-8 over his past six weeks. And Mike Minor left after six innings Monday night against San Diego with the Braves trailing 3-0 but having posted his sixth quality start in his past seven appearances — this after managing four in his first 15.
Say it again: The five-man rotation is working. The Braves have the National League’s best ERA since the All-Star break. Not coincidentally, they also have baseball’s best record since July 5. But rotations can be capricious things: Starting pitchers are conditioned to take a turn every five days, not six. One more day mightn’t seem a big deal to us laypeople, but you shudder at the thought of a starting five that struggled to gain traction losing its grip because somebody got too cute.
Even as he was announcing the move Monday, manager Fredi Gonzalez acted as if he was knocking on wood. In baseball, gluts tend to work themselves out, he kept saying. The Braves are going to the six-pack, he said, “as of 5 o’clock on Monday, but it could change at any time. When I walk back and talk to Bubba [head trainer Jeff Porter], it could change.”
About here, you’re saying: “They’re only planning to do it through Aug. 29. What can go wrong in 2 1/2 weeks?” Well, we return to August 2011. The Braves had won six of seven and were headed to New York for a weekend series against the Mets, whereupon Hurricane Irene forced the Saturday and Sunday games to be postponed. The Braves were already scheduled to be off on Monday. General manager Frank Wren believes that unplanned long weekend threw his team off its stride and led into the Epic Collapse of September.
Yes, there’s a chance this six-man rotation will do no harm and actually keep the Braves’ arms fresher for September (and presumably October), but why take the chance at all? Medlen has made three strong starts, yes, but he’s not by trade a full-blooded starter. He’s a spot guy, and he has value as a reliever. It might not be fair — and I’m aware that Medlen is a fan favorite — but fairness shouldn’t be the first consideration with a playoff berth in play. Unless/until Hanson proves he can’t win games, Medlen should return to the bullpen.
These next 2 1/2 weeks are apt to tell the tale of this regular season. After lately beating up on lesser lights, the Braves now must face the second-in-the-West Dodgers here, the division-leading Nationals and Giants at their places and the Padres, who have been rather good since the All-Star break, both here and there. The Braves are in great shape today. But they were in great shape last August.
I’m not predicting the six-man rotation will blow this. (Then again, I didn’t think anything could blow it a year ago.) I’m just saying: The Braves worked all season to get this rotation into shape. It’d be a shame to have anything mess it up.
By Mark Bradley
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128 comments Add your comment
Pitch or Bitch
August 14th, 2012
1:23 pm
If Hanson doesn’t get any better than he has been these last few starts then I would put him on the DL again and forget about the 6 man rotation……….if he does better then it’s a ClusterF@#k and Medlen goes back to relief.
ChipperisGod
August 14th, 2012
1:27 pm
This’ll either make or break the season. I think Sheets needs a day off, and I think he’s very good overall. He’s pitched fantastic since he’s been back, with that Mets game being the only game he didn’t look really sharp.
But his elbow could explode any second and his conditioning probably isn’t where it should be either since he came in for the middle of the season. I applaud the six man rotation because Hudson and Sheets are older and Hudson himself is battling health issues.
Medlen has pitched great, and once his stamina keeps going up, he’s only going to get better. He’s a fierce competitor, throws strikes and is a true team guy.
Hanson pisses me off. He won’t do what’s best for the team and despite this 12 win season he’s having, he’s getting absolutely shelled by quality opponents and barely getting by weaker opponents. He has a bad attitude in regards to cursing out Rodger and Fredi who were trying to help him by giving him a rehab start.
I like the move because it gives the older guys a day off, I don’t like it because I don’t think Hanson has what it takes to take on quality opponents. I hope I’m wrong, but Hanson has not pitched well in the second half of this year or last year.
We need to win these next three games, get to 20 games over before taking on the Dodgers, Nats and Giants. I look for Hudson to go deep tonight with seven innings, Malholm to go deep tomorrow with eight, and Medlen to go 7 and shut the door on Thursday.
Go Braves!
Dave
August 14th, 2012
1:46 pm
I like Huddy, Maholm, Medlin, Minor & Sheets! Hanson should have been traded away not that good and anyone can steal a base or two on his slow motion delivery to home!
hal
August 14th, 2012
2:00 pm
what i want too know is whats heyworthless hitting with men in scoring postion last two games he bunged up a good looking first inng hes a worthless pos lol
Moneyball
August 14th, 2012
2:27 pm
Mark, I have to disagree. I love the idea of a 6-man rotation during the stretch run. It’s obvious that we can’t count on offense day in and day out so we’re gonna need every quality start that we can get to make a run at the Nats. IMHO, fresher, more rested arms will lend itself well toward that end. Besides, if one of the 6 goes down or needs an extra day off, Frank and Fredi won’t have to scramble to find a last minute replacement.
observer
August 14th, 2012
2:48 pm
When you use a 6 man rotation, each time your #6 gets a start that means one less start for your #1 starter. Your #1 starter gives you a better chance to win. I believe if the Braves had won one more game last year they would have reached the play-offs. Are you sure you think 6 starters makes sense?
Sonny Clusters
August 14th, 2012
3:01 pm
Our little substitute momma Stinger2 has chimed in again about us posting baseball that doesn’t agree with her shallow thoughts. Little one, why don’t you post something even remotely useful about the game and we will then consider if we agree with you or not. We think you may have a crush on us and if that’s true we may want to change our name to something different so you won’t be stalking us and doing creepy stuff like your creepy posts. We may change our name to Stinker2 and go undercover for awhile. Then again, we may ignore your dribble like we are sure everybody else does. Rah, Rah, golly, gee.
c
August 14th, 2012
3:40 pm
Let me get this straight,
There are 47 games left to play, we are six games back in the win column and our manager want’s to go with six starters?
Crickets are chirping…………..and a one game wild card playoff berth awaits while the rest of this season is predictable right down to the last out.
True Braves Fan
August 14th, 2012
3:49 pm
In my day, Feller, Newouser, et al. started evey FOURTH day. I can’ta recall when all teams went to 5 man rotations, but I am sure some columnists was the voice of doom then. Who’s to say that 6 man rotations may not be the norm for all teams in the future?
Scoots
August 14th, 2012
4:14 pm
Bradley – I don’t get the corrollation between the 6-man rotation and last year’s collapse. Last year was all about the overuse of the bullpen and not enough hitting. That’s not the case this year.
You can argue for or against the 6-man vs. 5-man – personally don’t like having 6 days between starts for the #1 starter- but it’s not going to make or break the season. They need to keep playing how they’ve been playing (save for the last 2 days) and take care of business vs. the Nats in the 2 series left against them.
Scoots
August 14th, 2012
4:16 pm
Also, as long as Medlin keeps winning like he is – you HAVE to let him keep starting. Odd man out should be Hanson, or Minor (if Hanson regains form).
Stinger 2
August 14th, 2012
4:43 pm
Clusters: You need to learn what words mean before you use them. The word “dribble” is not a word of speach. The word is drivel. You dribble a basketball or move the soccer ball with a dribble. When someone writes the same old babble on and on like you do its drivel.
That aside, I am not stalking you, just trying to understand why you are so
negative about the Braves you are in every post you make.
longtimefan
August 14th, 2012
4:59 pm
No, Clusters you are wrong. Of the 4 main infielders(Jones, Simmons, Uggla and Freeman) only one has a dWAR below 0-that is Freeman and barely so -0.3. I see you and your high school baseball buddies who get together to write your blog responses( I can only assume that is the “we” reference,a grown man wouldn’t talk otherwise, would he?) have given up on ragging on Chipper. To do otherwise would risk ridicule, given the season Chipper is having. OPS of .880, second only to Wright in NL. Guess you called that one wrong in your many mean spirited posts about our future HOF third baseman. I see you and your “we” buddies are on to your next target-Uggla. Do you have anything good to say? Still mad Chipper wouldn’t sign that ball for you when you were in grade school?
Please get it
August 14th, 2012
5:22 pm
“Tommy Hanson has won 12 games….”
That is not a valid argument.
As a so-called baseball expert, you, Mr Bradley, should know by now that a ptcher’s wins and losses’ record is a meaningless stat.
Get it, just get it, man.
Adam
August 15th, 2012
9:03 am
LOL@ Stinger2…………..and speech is not spelled “speach” (just sayin’ since you are correcting other people)
JNick
August 15th, 2012
9:44 am
Well Mark, I’m glad that your opinions don’t hold weight with Braves management. A 6 man rotation for the next 2-3 weeks makes complete sense.
Keith
August 15th, 2012
9:57 am
Leo Mazzone said it best: going to a 6-man rotation will mess with guys who are pitching well…can mess with their routine and mechanics of everyday stuff.
I hope it doesn’t.
And as much that I want Medlen in the starting rotation, Hanson has never been a reliever. Given our circumstances, Med is probably more valuable in the pen as a bridge to Oflar and Kimbrel than Hanson would be in the pen.
Keith
August 15th, 2012
10:01 am
*clarification
he didn’t say it “will mess” with their route. He said that it “could” unrail their routines…and why mess with all of the pitchers’ routines when you’ve got a good thing going.
My opinion is that fans are probably very divided on this issue.
Mark, take a poll?
Go BRAVES!
Keith
August 15th, 2012
10:14 am
Well, now that I think about it I’m probably in the minority.
I bet it’s 65% those that want a 6 man rotation…and probably only cause that means Medlen starts.
Al
August 15th, 2012
11:27 am
Put Tommy Hanson in and leave Medlen out? Fan favorite or not, Hanson has proven his ability to win 12 games but Medlen has proven that he (almost) can’t lose. The guy is a winner, he has the x factor. Put Tommy in the bullpen before Medlen goes there. We should be asking ourselves why we haven’t been starting Medlen from the beginning, the guy is a catalyst.
space monkey
August 15th, 2012
12:51 pm
Medlen has made three strong starts, yes, but he’s not by trade a full-blooded starter. He’s a spot guy
I don’t understand this thinking if the team needs to win one game, it should start Medlen. He’s an excellent starter.
brad
August 15th, 2012
1:08 pm
You wouldn’t? Amazing!!! maybe that is why you are a third rate writer at a fifth rate paper nd not actually a athlete or manager on ANY level. Just shut up and let the pros make the decisions. You just keep mking liner for my bird’s cage.
Semper Fi Braves fan
August 15th, 2012
10:39 pm
Tommy Hanson last 5 starts haven’t lasted more than 5.1 innings with a 7.57 ERA. During that stretch he was 3-0 with zero quality starts thanks to a more often than not good offense this season.
I used to be a huge Hanson supporter, however because of his comic ability to hold runners, and horrid pitching mechanics he should be sold now with a winning record.
Since July 5th (seeing how we keep talking about that date in time)
Minor is 2-3 with 6 for 6 in quality starts with a 2.60 ERA
Hudson 6-0 with 5 of 8 quality starts with a 2.02 ERA
Sheets 4-2, 6 for 6 quality starts with a 2.13 ERA
Medlen 2-0 1 for 3 Quality starts with a 2.41 ERA
Maholm 2-1 3 for 3 quality starts (with braves) with a 1.69 ERA
Ladies and Gentlemen, your starting rotation.
As for Tommy Hanson, and his agent Scott Borris… send them elsewhere, Gwinett, Macon, the Washington Nationals…. anywhere but in the rotation.
Braves95
August 15th, 2012
11:34 pm
Hanson is NOT a bullpen pitcher. Minor has experience there and so does Medlen. Fredi will pitch whoever he feels is dealing. Hanson came up in 2009!! Are you people nuts!!?!?!? He’s 12-5 with plenty left in the tank. You sound like the same people who were writing off Heyward last year. Also the same people who talk bad about Uggla and come up with new crap to cry and complain about everyday. Don’t quit your day jobs.
Braves95
August 15th, 2012
11:48 pm
If any of you knew anything about baseball, you would know that Medlen’s arm WILL NOT last in the starting rotation for the rest of the season and possibly into the post season. He didn’t prepare his body or arm in the preseason to pitch this many innings. Sure he’s going great now, but Hanson will take his place whether you all like it or not. Fredi knows this, which is why he is the manager!! You people are so delusional to this topic. There are multiple factors and precursors to this puzzle, but Hanson will come back non the less. GET OVER IT!
JNick
August 17th, 2012
3:18 pm
….so…you guys still want to send Medlen back to the bullpen?
JNick
August 17th, 2012
3:26 pm
And when does Minor have bullpen experience?
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