Six men in the rotation? The Braves say yes; I say, ‘I wouldn’t’
Is keeping Medlen in the rotation worth the risk of meddling? (AJC photo by Brant Sanderlin)
For half a season the Braves couldn’t find enough good starting pitchers. Now they have so many they’re planning to deploy a six-man rotation. They’re not doing this because they’re desperate. They’re doing it because they think it’ll make a rotation that has finally begun to function work even better.
Here we return to a fairly key phrase: “A rotation that has finally begun to function.”
And here we note: The Braves are tinkering with what, to get ungrammatical, not only ain’t broke but what, not so long ago, was a mess.
The Braves see it this way: Tommy Hanson is due back from the disabled list, and it would make no sense to ship him to the bullpen or Gwinnett. Hanson has proved he’s a big-league starter. (Even in this lesser season, he has won 12 games.) Kris Medlen, deputized as Hanson’s replacement, has won two of his three starts with an ERA of 2.16, and the Braves like that, too.
Tim Hudson is a rotation fixture. The retread Ben Sheets has made himself one (five quality starts in six tries). Paul Malholm was imported to be a starter, and he’s 2-for-2 in quality starts since his arrival and 8-for-8 over his past six weeks. And Mike Minor left after six innings Monday night against San Diego with the Braves trailing 3-0 but having posted his sixth quality start in his past seven appearances — this after managing four in his first 15.
Say it again: The five-man rotation is working. The Braves have the National League’s best ERA since the All-Star break. Not coincidentally, they also have baseball’s best record since July 5. But rotations can be capricious things: Starting pitchers are conditioned to take a turn every five days, not six. One more day mightn’t seem a big deal to us laypeople, but you shudder at the thought of a starting five that struggled to gain traction losing its grip because somebody got too cute.
Even as he was announcing the move Monday, manager Fredi Gonzalez acted as if he was knocking on wood. In baseball, gluts tend to work themselves out, he kept saying. The Braves are going to the six-pack, he said, “as of 5 o’clock on Monday, but it could change at any time. When I walk back and talk to Bubba [head trainer Jeff Porter], it could change.”
About here, you’re saying: “They’re only planning to do it through Aug. 29. What can go wrong in 2 1/2 weeks?” Well, we return to August 2011. The Braves had won six of seven and were headed to New York for a weekend series against the Mets, whereupon Hurricane Irene forced the Saturday and Sunday games to be postponed. The Braves were already scheduled to be off on Monday. General manager Frank Wren believes that unplanned long weekend threw his team off its stride and led into the Epic Collapse of September.
Yes, there’s a chance this six-man rotation will do no harm and actually keep the Braves’ arms fresher for September (and presumably October), but why take the chance at all? Medlen has made three strong starts, yes, but he’s not by trade a full-blooded starter. He’s a spot guy, and he has value as a reliever. It might not be fair — and I’m aware that Medlen is a fan favorite — but fairness shouldn’t be the first consideration with a playoff berth in play. Unless/until Hanson proves he can’t win games, Medlen should return to the bullpen.
These next 2 1/2 weeks are apt to tell the tale of this regular season. After lately beating up on lesser lights, the Braves now must face the second-in-the-West Dodgers here, the division-leading Nationals and Giants at their places and the Padres, who have been rather good since the All-Star break, both here and there. The Braves are in great shape today. But they were in great shape last August.
I’m not predicting the six-man rotation will blow this. (Then again, I didn’t think anything could blow it a year ago.) I’m just saying: The Braves worked all season to get this rotation into shape. It’d be a shame to have anything mess it up.
By Mark Bradley
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128 comments Add your comment
Skeezix
August 13th, 2012
10:27 pm
Minor was okay tonight, but Braves offense has gone limp again and Uggla continues to disappoint. The offense has had zero spark in the last two games. Are they starting to run down? If I was an opposing manager I would pitch nothing but lefties against the Braves. If I didn’t have enough lefties, I go get them from the farm. I swear I think any High School leftie could give this offense a hard time. It’s like a left hander makes them all cross eyed.
I don’t like the six man rotation idea and I could tell from Glavine comments tonight that he wasn’t all that keen on it either.
Ed
August 13th, 2012
10:32 pm
Enter your comments here
Ed
August 13th, 2012
10:34 pm
Forget about the pitching. Cy Young himself could not win with the sorry Brave hitters.
Yunel Asscobar
August 13th, 2012
11:27 pm
If this works, and I think it’s a great idea, the next logical step is to jettison Fredi and hire Jeff to manage in 2013. The managerial IQ is immediately quadrupled and maybe now we can hit and run, steal, and actually manufacture runs. I’m liking this a lot! Go Shultz!
nick78vsu
August 13th, 2012
11:35 pm
Dear God! Making a big deal out of nothing; they are only doing this for two weeks and then they have said their going back to a five man. With the teams that they are playing over the next two weeks, its prob the best time to do it, and see who will remain in the rotation and who will head to the bullpen!
Oy vey.
August 14th, 2012
3:11 am
Don’t talk about last year. Don’t talk about last year. Don’t talk about last year.
COOPER
August 14th, 2012
3:24 am
The reason Atlanta didn’t make it to the playoff last year was because the starters and relief pitcher gave out before the end of the year. Atlanta going to a six man rotation is a God send.
At some point you will have to drop at least one from the rotation. My choice would be Hanson or Minor. Right now Medlen is probably Atlanta’s best and most consistent starter. Nobody has better control.
I noticed that Minor did not have a walk tonight but he gave up 9 hits in six innings. Not very good. Minor isn’t walking a lot anymore but he isn’t hitting the corner like Medlen does. When Minor gets to much of the plate he give up hits and runs.
If Hanson can’t get his big breaking ball over for strikes his average outing will be 5 innings and he will give up 5 runs on 6 to 10 hits.
I think Hudson will be okay but Atlanta needs to skip his turn every once in a while . He is getting tired and is unable to maintain his control for 6 or 7 innings.
Wrecker
August 14th, 2012
5:38 am
I see this short-term solution similarly to bringing up a starter from AAA to pitch when you have 4 games in 3 days because of a rainout and doubleheader. The League even changed the rule to permit a no-penalty call-up in such situations. We only need to get to September and through this stretch of no off-days before going back to normal. This is not the new normal.
TommyP
August 14th, 2012
6:22 am
I’m for the 6-man. But if you don’t go with it, you certainly leave Medlen alone in the rotation. He’s been phenomenal.
Atticus
August 14th, 2012
7:39 am
None of this matters because they won’t catch the Nats.
Med Head
August 14th, 2012
8:01 am
Medlen, not a starter by trade? He was drafted a starter, pitched in the minors as a starter, had a better record and ERA over the much-hyped Hanson when he was called up to the show and he has been a better starter than Hanson for the Braves, when he’s been given an oppty. Ironically, Medlen got hurt and when he came back there was no room in the starting 5. Now, there is no room for Hanson. Go with the 6-pack, and then Hanson in long-relief in the sprint. Hanson, unfortunately, has not lived up to the hype – he’s a keeper, but a #4 starter at best – when there’s room.
Med Head
August 14th, 2012
8:02 am
And yes, Atticus – it matters.
longtimefan
August 14th, 2012
8:06 am
The most impressive thing about the entire thread is not once is Medlen’s name misspelled.
longtimefan
August 14th, 2012
8:11 am
To Ed: The Braves are second in the NL in hitting(runs scored). You must be an Astros fan- this is a Braves blog.
Ted M
August 14th, 2012
8:22 am
Pretty well thought out argument Mark. But as you say you can never tell.
I’m gonna have to side with Fredi on this one…shivers just ran up and down my spine.
GRD
August 14th, 2012
8:27 am
Hanson hasn’t proven anything. he’s been a dud this year. I’d ship him to gwinnett
Fladawg
August 14th, 2012
8:31 am
Six starters is not going to help or hurt when the Braves get to the one game play in for the two wildcard teams. The Braves do not have a top of the line #1 starter that they can count on in that game.
alex
August 14th, 2012
9:48 am
bigger problem with 6 rotation one short on bullpen, but it make sense in Atlanta because off small fan support causing tied budget so need to find 5 cheapest pitchers. in new world this organization have zero chance to compete with teams who get almost capacity crowd on any given game and such teams are plenty. so relax folks and enjoy college football season. in any organization the mistake with signing players like uggla could be corrected, not in atlanta 13 mil for .213. we have no money. and don’t blame wren, he is a human, blame city for hating pro sport.
FANtastic
August 14th, 2012
9:54 am
Totally disagree with this column. I believe you underestimate Medlen’s ability to start. Since he was first called up, when has he done anything to show that he’s “not a true starter?” The guy pitches great everytime he takes the mound. I also think you’re overstating the impact of having guys pitch every 6 days instead of 5. They do it all the time (i.e. everytime there is a off-day). Since there are no off days during the time they plan to do this, it’s not like anyone will be pitching on six days rest.
Nevada Roy
August 14th, 2012
9:56 am
Maybe the logic is if one-out-of-six starting pitchers has an off-day it is only 1/6th of the games versus 1/5th of the games?
Ted Striker
August 14th, 2012
10:09 am
I say go with the six.
Take a risk.
Defy convention.
“In Italy, for thirty years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci and the Renaissance.
In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, they had five hundred years of democracy and peace – and what did that produce? The five man rotation.“
(apologies to Orson Welles)
Brandon Lee
August 14th, 2012
10:11 am
Agreed, although Mark never addresses the HAnson issue, persay… Hudson, Maholm, Medlin, Sheets, and Minor. Why would the Braves even Consider giving up their Best Lefty Equalizer in the middle of the Rotation, keeping Opposing Teams Lefty Heavy Hitters on the Bench, for the sake of Hanson. Tommy has shown True Grit most of his career, including this year. He Battles every bit as much as Hudson, but Hanson’s talents are waning, for whatever reason, health, age, Karma.. Noone ever knows Exactly Why it happens, but the signs cannot be ignored. Placing HAnson in a Six-man Rotation for the sake of Saving-Face, is Never Sound Reasoning.
Brandon Lee
August 14th, 2012
10:19 am
With Martin Prado Getting a Triple in the Eight inning, with Two Outs…
and Then Heyward comes up trying to knock the ball out of the Park, when a single would’ve sufficed… Sure it would’ve only been a 4 -2 Ballgame, but again, two-runs to make up are much easier to come by than 3 or 4… Heywards Whiff with Prado standing on Third Base STINKS… That is SORRY Managing of a Baseball Team !!!
longtimefan
August 14th, 2012
10:27 am
Dude, That has to do with hitting, not managing. Don’t expect any hitter to come thru in every situation. That’s clown thinking, bro.
Joey
August 14th, 2012
10:35 am
“I predict that no matter what happens, there will be plenty of people in here saying it was obvious that the Braves should have done the opposite of whatever it is they decide to do.”
************************************************
Right. Just like the predictble, “Stupid Fredi left (fill in the blank) one inning too long!” Or the equally predictable, “Stupid Fredi took (fill in the bank) out when he was pitching good!)
ragnar danneskjold
August 14th, 2012
11:08 am
Respectfully disagree with the analysis. Doubt that the pitchers will “lose it” with an extra day’s rest. Last year’s post-Mets difficulties were less attributable to “excessive rest for starters” than with “insufficient rest for relievers.” Having so argued, I would go with Hanson as long-relief for the next two weeks and keep a five-man rotation. Medlen is the ace of the staff now, but Maholm could steal that title.
ragnar danneskjold
August 14th, 2012
11:12 am
In many ways, there is a logic to the six-man rotation. Pitchers can actually pitch effectively every three days, so pairing up the guys, one as alternative contingent long-relief for the other, would be a totally reasonable plan.
ragnar danneskjold
August 14th, 2012
11:14 am
Another potential use of starters as long-relief would have “the next day’s starter” on notice as potential long relief for each game. That would free up the “long relief” spot in the bull-pen, and give Fredi the most potential innings from his starters.
ragnar danneskjold
August 14th, 2012
11:18 am
The potential down-side of using starters as long-relief is that many starters have peculiar warm-up routines, born of superstition or of training, and would be possibly disrupted by sudden activation in a game.
coach13
August 14th, 2012
11:22 am
The only way the BRaves catch the Nats is if they collapse. The Braves can’t play much better than they have been. Hanson is a #3 starter at best, he’s hardly replaceable. Send his butt to the pen and if he doesn’t like it trade him. Again, he’s hardly replaceable and since you aren’t going to get anything for JJ you might actually be able to get something for him. With his mechanics he will be oft injured and not worth what we are paying him.
Pippa's hiney
August 14th, 2012
11:27 am
None of them “deserve” the bullpen. Medlin the most obvious, simply because he would be the most effective of the group.
Sonny Clusters
August 14th, 2012
11:28 am
Same old same old. Uggla is a hole in the lineup. A hole. “He’s getting big walks” – hahahaha! We think that Janish is a good guy and a better ss than Pastor but there are a lot of balls getting just past his glove. Those were being stopped with Simmons out there – and with Gonzales the year before. The infield is suspect with only one player considered above average at his position. Some are clearly below average. If the team goes into a slide will Fredi know what to do? He didn’t last year.
Sonny Clusters
August 14th, 2012
11:31 am
Bringing a starter in to relieve is not a new concept for the Braves and fans should not suggest otherwise. We remember when Bobby brought Charlie Liebrandt in to pitch to Kirby Puckett. How did that work out?
man and dog
August 14th, 2012
11:40 am
Durk Lowe and FG’s decision to keep “throwing him out there” for 5 starts in September was the biggest reason the Braves blew it last year. Let’s see what Fredie does this year.
Mr. Dawg
August 14th, 2012
11:43 am
I’ve always been happy to have a healthy solid 5 man rotation. That’s often times a luxury. Not too long a ago a 4 man was the standard. You simply can’t have too much help out of the bullpen and while Medlin has proven to be a capable starter, I think that’s his place for now. Middle relief is very underrated. Solid middle relief iss a must have for a team to be successful. I think it’s unfair that an All-star spot is typically given to top closers and not to a top midlle reliever. I’d like to see a stat that shows how many save opportunites or salvaged or lost by middle relievers.
Jay
August 14th, 2012
11:56 am
Medlen back to the bullpen? NO!!!! Even Joe Simpson things Medlen should be starting, and he knows more about the team than just about any of us.
If anyone should go to the bullpen, it should be Sheets or Hanson. Sheets hasnt been doing good in the last couple of starts…the clock has struck midnight. And Hanson, well…he’s going to get injured again, so why mess up a good thing?
Stinger 2
August 14th, 2012
12:02 pm
Well, Clusters is back in his predictable form casting negative and disparing comments about Fredi and the Braves players. Not surprising that he would go back to a WS game in the early 1990`s to find something bad to say.
Keep up the pitiful comments Clusters. You are the Master.
Dr. Food
August 14th, 2012
12:05 pm
When you become the manager and your hindmost is on the line for your decisions then, and only then, are your opinions worth anything. It is easy to critique what might happen. You are much better at offering your explination for what has happened. Let the fans do the prognostication; you do the reporting, please.
Why?
August 14th, 2012
12:13 pm
Bradley please take a look at Hanson’s career stats. He has gotten worse each year. Please don’t say he’s a proven big-league starter!
PS….What is Hanson’s run support in those 12 wins this year?
Ryan
August 14th, 2012
12:13 pm
Mark – you forgot that Medlen is part of the reason the Braves have the best ERA since the break – Hanson is not. You seem to like to reference quality starts – Hanson has definately already shown that he can’t devlier those – 1 in his last 6 tries. He happened to get wins because the offense/bullpen bailed him out all of the time.
Why?
August 14th, 2012
12:17 pm
@Ryan…..Thank You!
Craig Miller
August 14th, 2012
12:43 pm
I like the move. We know all too well how badly working guys on 3 days rest went for us in the playoffs over the last 20 years. (Jeez, has it been that long since Glavine, Smoltz and Avery?). And we saw how worn down our guys got last year. I don’t see how extra rest could hurt. A rested starter can hopefully last longer and thus take innings away from the bullpen and keep them rested. Plus, as Freddy seems to know, out of the 6, someone’s going to need to miss a start here and there, and it’ll probably play out as a 5 man rotation most of the time anyway.
Craig Miller
August 14th, 2012
12:44 pm
Also, Sheets especially will probably benefit from the extra rest, considering he hasn’t pitched in two years.
Jay
August 14th, 2012
12:49 pm
My opinion: given the health issues of those in the rotation, doing 28 out of 33 games on 4-days rest seems a lot riskier than temporarily switching to the 6-man. …
5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5, (go to 5-man after 8/30) … 6,5,5,5,5,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,5,5,5,5,5,4,5,5,5,6,6,5,5,5,5,4,4,4 — Those are the starters’ days off, if they stay on the 6-man rotation through 8/29 (8/30 is the off day). Begins with 16 starts with 5-days off. Then Sheets (if stay on current rotation) gets 6 days off (due to the off day) as they switch back to a 5-man. Four 5-day rests on the remainder of that turn through the rotation. Then Eight starts with 4-days rest; then an off day, so then one trip through the rotation with 5-days rest, with one starter then going on 4-days rest before the next off day. Three starts at 5-days rest, before the next off day (last of season) causes next two guys to go on 6-days rest. End season with 7-straight games – first four with 5-days rest, and the last three on 4-days rest. Blah, blah. Long story short: the current 6-man is actually more consistent than a traditional 5-man (without skipping the 5th starter due to off days). If the 6-man stays intact, 20 of the next 21 starts are on 5-days rest, with one on 6-days rest (as they switch back to a “normal” rotation). Of the 26 games after that (with a 5-man rotation), 12 would be on 4-days rest, 12 on 5-days rest, and two on 6-days rest. … If they had stayed on a 5-man, 24 of the next 29 starts would have been on 4-days rest (from here out; going back to last Friday would have made it 28 out of 33 on 4-days rest). Anyway, just some numbers for food for thought. But it seems to me the 6-man is just as consistent and predictable as a 5-man; and the “extra” rest isn’t an abnormal amount (due to normally having an off day a bit more often than every other week, as others have mentioned) – 5 days off per guy per start.
man and dog
August 14th, 2012
12:57 pm
I will be the first to applaud a good performance or decisions OR bitch about a poor performance or decisions. So far, Fredi good – 2 or 3. Bitch, more than I care to admit.
man and dog
August 14th, 2012
1:00 pm
This does not mean I am against 6 man rotation. I am.So Fredie is off the hook on this one.
man and dog
August 14th, 2012
1:07 pm
Jay – are you a computer tech/analysis?
what of it?
August 14th, 2012
1:15 pm
Screw it. they have delgado in the minors why not make it a 7-man rotation. we’ll have the freshest arms in baseball for the post-season. sure we’ll have more starters than relief but what’s good for the goose…
Wren-a-player
August 14th, 2012
1:17 pm
Well………..too many starting pitchers is a good thing isn’t it?……….the way the last few games have gone they will need 2 starters just for long relief……..if Hanson’s fastball doesn’t hit 92-93mph like it used to then he will not be effective and who knows if Sheets will hold up………Frank made a great move with Maholm and Johnson….lets just hope Viscaino doesn’t turn out to be a Pedro Martinez though……….what to do with Teheran and Gilmartin next year???……….trade Teheran to the Royals for Wil Meyers even up so Heyward can take Bourn’s centerfield spot after he leaves and Meyers can take right…………..that way we can have a young core of hitters led by Freeman,Heywar,Simmons,Prado and Meyers if we get him!
coach13
August 14th, 2012
1:21 pm
Send Pastornicky down, he’s not getting any better riding the bench. Let him play some AAA and see if gets better. Prado has proven he can play SS if need be. Better yet send Uggly down.
Atlanta fans need to realize that outside of doing what the Giants did a few years ago (get hot at the right time and have every bounce go their way) they aren’t a championship caliber team.