The Falcons in 2012: I foresee a breakthrough – or a bellyflop
Is the sky the limit for the Falcons? Or will the ceiling be lower? (AJC photo by Hyosub Shin)
For four seasons the Falcons were essentially the same team, give or take. Since the arrival of Thomas Dimitroff (general manager), Mike Smith (coach), Matt Ryan (quarterback) and Michael Turner (running back), the franchise that had never known consecutive winning seasons had known nothing else — no fewer than nine victories in any year, three playoff appearances in four tries.
But also: No playoff success.
The belief here is that the steady-as-she-goes dynamic is about to change. The Falcons, I submit, will get really good in 2012 — and by “really good” I mean play-for-the-NFC-title-good — or they’ll slip below .500. No more 10-6 or 11-5 and lose to the eventual champ in Round 1. Either it’s the big breakthrough or the big bellyflop.
The oft-expressed belief here is that the Falcons had outgrown their coaching, and by this I don’t mean Smith. (He’s the best coach in Falcons annals by some distance.) But the coordination, particularly on offense but also on defense, had gone stale. This team had gone as far with Mike Mularkey and Brian VanGorder doing the scheming as it could. Now there are different men in charge of both X’s and O’s, and now we’re about to see if the Bradley Theory was correct or, as has been the case with other Bradley Theories, as wrong as all get-out.
I kept counting heads — Ryan, Turner, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, Julio Jones, John Abraham, Curtis Lofton (since departed), Brent Grimes, Dunta Robinson, Sean Weatherspoon — and telling myself: “There’s no reason for a team with this much talent not to win a playoff game.” I was telling myself as much even as I was watching this able aggregation lose 24-2 to the Giants in the Meadowlands. But here’s where I play devil’s advocate with myself and say, “Old son, what if you were again in error? What if this roster isn’t all that special?”
As much as I believe in what Dimitroff has done, I also confess to having moments of doubt. There are games when I’d wonder why White drops so many passes, if Turner isn’t already two steps over the hill, if Ryan is capable of leading a team to more than just respectability. I’d wonder about an offensive line incapable of getting an inch’s worth of push. I’d wonder about a defense that couldn’t trouble one of the league’s elite quarterbacks. In sum, I’d wonder if I hadn’t overrated the whole operation.
Let me be clear: I don’t think I had, or have. I thought/think this is one of the NFL’s most gifted teams. But now, for better or worse, we’re all about to find out. There can be no more excuses for these players. The defense has a new coordinator in Mike Nolan. The offense has a new coordinator in Dirk Koetter. The O-line has a new steward in Pat Hill. If Ryan can’t throw the deep ball or the linemen can’t get outside to block for a screen pass (which Koetter plans to feature), it won’t be Mularkey’s fault. He’s coaching the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The belief here is that this team will indeed break upward, that the Falcons stand closer to the Super Bowl today than at any time this century. But with great expectation — and I’m sure I’m not the only one who feels optimistic — comes intense pressure, and there’s a small part of me that thinks a sluggish start could spawn the sort of finger-pointing this team under Dimitroff/Smith has managed to avoid. (Only in 2009, when both Turner and Ryan were hurt, was there cause for real angst.)
And this schedule won’t be easy. Technically only five games will come against 2011 playoff qualifiers, but the Falcons must play six times against non-qualifiers who went 7-9 or better last season. Any given Sunday and all that.
I say again: I believe the 2012 Falcons will be stout enough to handle whatever comes their way. I believe that the new coaches will help lift this team to higher heights. But if these players don’t perform any better than they did under their old coaches, I don’t foresee (to invoke an infamous Falcons word) a plateau effect. If this doesn’t work, I see a cliff — and a fall.
Oh, and for all who feel this post was ambiguous as to my expectations for the Falcons … take a peek at this CineSport video.
By Mark Bradley
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150 comments Add your comment
D man
August 7th, 2012
9:28 am
No matter what happens this year, I still love my Falcons… I’ve loved them during the Gritz Blitz years. I loved them during the Bartkowski years, the Marion Campbell years, the neon Dion years, the up and down years, the injury riddled years, and now through the WINNING years I still love my Falcons… And some day, I will be able to look back and say I loved them during the Superbowl years…
True Falcon Fan
August 7th, 2012
9:47 am
Mark Bradley: Very good article, Thank You!
Go Falcons!!!!
Trailboss
August 7th, 2012
9:51 am
As much as agree I’m still waiting for the parade before I leave this world and with this team I’m headed to Peachtree ,Street.I feel like Mark I ready but if this is not the team than we may as well sale them because man on paper is a Dynamite team if they stay health other than that…. GO BIRDS.
PMC
August 7th, 2012
9:56 am
The questions of TD need to be more directed. It shouldn’t be… Thomas, many feel you didn’t do much this offseason.
The question should be Thomas, why after watching all the games last year are you so hopeful that ostensibly the same group of offensive linemen is a year later going to be able to get the inch they couldn’t last year?
If last year wasn’t acceptable, and you were going to do all you could to get better, why are the same guys starting for the weakest part of the team in the first preseason game?
Nite Owl
August 7th, 2012
9:57 am
@”Choke”:
You wanted to know how a team could go from losing a first-round playoff game to the Super Bowl the next year.
The 2010 New York Giants went 10-6 and didn’t make the playoffs. Super Bowl champs the next year.
The 2009 Green Bay Packers lost in the first round of the playoffs to the Cardinals. Super Bowl champs the next year.
Your own Saints didn’t even make the playoffs in 2008 after an 8-8 record, then won the Super Bowl the next year. (But I know you’ve had a memory-wipe from 2008 and back.)
The 2007 Pittsburgh Steelers lost in the first round to the Jaguars. Super Bowl champs the next year.
The 2006 New York Giants lost in the first round to the Eagles. Super Bowl champs the next year.
The 2005 Indianapolis Colts lost their first playoff game to the Steelers. Super Bowl champs the next year.
Also, keep in mind that 2009 is getting further and further away. You might as well be a Jets fan celebrating Super Bowl III. Nobody around these parts cares.
And you know that once Brees is gone, you can dig back into that junk drawer and get out the paper bag with the little eyeholes. Maybe he’ll throw for 10,000 pretty yards this year and lose to a scrub team like the 49ers again. At least when we lose, it’s to the champs. Enjoy it while you can.
PapaK
August 7th, 2012
10:22 am
The Falcons are a good team. Is this the year they become a very good team? I think it all depends on 3 things: injuries, offensive line and Matt Ryan. Lack of depth in some key areas (cornerback, O-line, linebacker) would be very apparent if there were injuries. If Clabo or Gonzales went down that would hurt. Finally, can Ryan make the throws? I believe they have enough of everything else to win it all.
The rut
August 7th, 2012
10:48 am
8-8-No playoff. Can’t gain a foot on the ground? What (who) has changed?
PreyDawg
August 7th, 2012
11:02 am
Good assesment I think. There is no in between. I am kind of on the fence as well. How can they play with such pride in the final regular season game against Tampa and then look like absolute CRAP against a Giants team that wasn’t that much better. NOBODY made plays for us in that Giants game.
A side note about Vilma and the Saints. I have been to almost every Falcons/Saints games. And long before I knew of this investigation, I knew that the Saints under Peyton were extremely chippy. The amazing thing to me is they never got called for personal fouls. Remember our Monday night game last year. There were at least 6 cheap shots by them in the game. But who gets called? Weatherspoon for what was a perfectly clean hit.
The truth is, the Saints are great PR for the league. The NFL let them get away with lots of extra shots for years. And all this apparently happened AFTER the league had warned them twice about a bounty. So this whole thing with Vilma is a bed that the NFL made for itself to sleep in. There should have been some personal fouls called a long long time ago.
Now Vilma is going to make them look silly and the league is going to loose lots of clout. Guess the Saints, Drew Brees, and Vilma run the NFL now.
PreyDawg
August 7th, 2012
11:05 am
We couldn’t run the ball well last year because we were SO predictable. Not only did we telegraph when we would run. We telegraphed what hole we were going to. And empty backfield in the playoffs on 4th and 1???? Of course it was going to be a Ryan sneek.
Realtycheck
August 7th, 2012
11:19 am
The NFL has become a tight end league and the Falcons are relying on the oldest war horse on the block.
AINTSRTROLLBLOGGERS
August 7th, 2012
11:36 am
@The Rut
41 points in a playoff game…………and you still lose………..nothing much has changed.
Upper Deck cronies
August 7th, 2012
11:38 am
Ryan ain’t tuff enough to get them past the 1st round of the playoffs and he thinks he will take them to the Super Bowl??
Heavyweight Champion of the Earl
August 7th, 2012
11:46 am
Falcons should leave the NFL…and join the ACC.
Lt Col Razorback
August 7th, 2012
11:50 am
Johnny Falco –
That’s the whole point. The Falcons are a team that has almost worked, but never been able to finish. They play well during the regular season, then sputter and fizzle out in the playoffs. Something has to change if they are to breakout of that pattern.
Heavyweight Champion of the Earl
August 7th, 2012
11:58 am
None of the Falcons “stars” are household names. Matt Ryan and Roddy White don’t keep defensive coordinators awake all night worrying. The defense watched as it’s leading tackler left for the Saints, and team management tried to convince us that Tatupu would make fans forget about Lofton. Stop accepting mediocrity, and vote by “empty seats”.
Go For 2
August 7th, 2012
11:59 am
Mark:
Any reason you left out how bad the Falcons are on the line (both o and d)? I guess that has nothing to do with success in NFL Football. Seriously Mark, these columns highlight one of two things: 1. your ignorance of the game of football (I doubt this) or 2. your laziness in researching and reporting (more likley).
Falcons, Inc. (TD, Rich McKay), Mr. B) has shown very limited ability to assess and draft personnel so they have defaulted to over-paying for free agent players. Long term they will be in salary cap trouble and have no basae of draft picks to build upon; the neglect of the lines will be their most glaring weakness again however.
yeahsure
August 7th, 2012
12:13 pm
I think the hiring of the new coordinators will make a bigger impact than you think. Someone who left the Falcons recently (cant remember who it was) commented that the players were playing with a sense of uneasy tension on the field. I think that has a lot to do with MM’s arrogant, uncompromising personality and BVG’s tendancy to bite your head off.
I’m thinking Smitty brought in Dirk and Nolan not only for their playcalling skills, but also knowing that they would be able to mesh with the players (who are no longer a young team) and get the best out of them. So far, you can feel that the energy and vibe is much better. We’ll see how that plays out during the season.
PMC
August 7th, 2012
12:14 pm
They haven’t really overpaid any free agents. Michael Turner has been a bargain. Dunta was paid the going rate, he just hasn’t played to his contract whether that is scheme or other, he hasn’t played like a 57 million dollar player. Ray Edwards got a solid deal for both parties. He just wasn’t effective last year. Anything extra that Grimes gets is overdue back pay.
The money is not the issue, it’s the value after the sale. If they can manage to find a real LT next year, there really aren’t that many holes to fill going forward. The biggest problem on the team is not having a viable left tackle. They’ll find a RB next off season no problem. They should be ok on the interior of the OL now with the Konz pick up. They aren’t changing safeties even though they have 2 SS and no real FS on the team so it is what it is there. CB is ok. They can find other LB’s. What they really need other than LT the most is quality pass rushers, but they might have a few of them as well if they finally turn loose guys they haven’t let play in the last several years.
yeahsure
August 7th, 2012
12:16 pm
@Nite Owl.
Great Post. But people on here dont respond well to valid points and logic.
PMC
August 7th, 2012
12:16 pm
Ovie could be seen as an overpayment but that’s on Mckay, and Ovie was the only effective blockers they had in the running game last year.
Tony Grazziano
August 7th, 2012
12:22 pm
This article didn’t tell us much- either good or bad? Anyone can predict that! I figure 9-7, a slight drop off. Ryan has to prove he can and wants to throw downfield. Screens to recievers and check offs are way past getting old. Lack of a pass rush as well as a middle linebacker are also issues. Football is still primarily won in the lines- not superior skill position players.
True Falcon Fan
August 7th, 2012
12:31 pm
11:59 — “YOU” are the ignorant idiot!!!
Why waste your time expressing your opinion on this blog, you obviously are not a Falcons fan…..
Go Falcons!!!
Joe
August 7th, 2012
12:35 pm
WOW! Maybe I can get a job as a sportswriter at AJC………
My take on 2012 Georgia Bulldogs…….it will either be a good year or a bad year.
Brandon
August 7th, 2012
12:48 pm
This article reminded me of my last trip to my financial planner. “Well Brandon, if Europe unravels further, the U.S. gets a debt downgrade and considering that the market is over 13,000, we will probably see a pullback and we want to get defensive. On the other hand, if the ECB implements some policy changes, we address our debt, and we view the current move over 13,000 as momentous, we could go higher and we may want to be more offensive and take more risk.” In short, this article says nothing and means nothing.
correction....
August 7th, 2012
1:01 pm
i see 9.5 wins for gt and i see at least 8 total arrests for the dawgs. you have the numbers flip flopped although with a little effort the dawgs could hit 9-10.
while the fulmer cup is out of reach this year the dawgs could finish no 2.
when i think of the dawgs…. a no 2 always comes to mind.
hey dawgs thanks for keeping the summer entertaining for all of us. great job.
now if we could only get your kissing singing hugging swimming coach in some hot water.
Jimmy Crack
August 7th, 2012
1:08 pm
I foresee us going 16-0, plowing through the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.
Or we could crash and burn with multiple injuries.
This is fun, Mark! Let’s do another one!
True Falcon Fan
August 7th, 2012
1:26 pm
Re: UGA Bull Pups “WHO CARES”
Senior falcon
August 7th, 2012
1:37 pm
Mark
You should know by now, you not only have to write it, you have to read it for some of them. BTW, good article
CDOG
August 7th, 2012
1:40 pm
NEED TO STRENGTH THEIR LINEBACKING GROUP.NEED TO STRENGTHEN THE RETURN GAME ALSO.GET A BACK UP QUARTERBACK READY BESIDES CHRIS REDMAN.DAVIS OR PARKER WILSON WILL FIT BETTER AT 2 AND 3 FOR THE SEASON OR A TRADE PICKUP FOR A QB LIKE DONNAVAN MCNABB
NES
August 7th, 2012
2:04 pm
Mr. Bradley, my sentiments exactly! I want to believe they are going to go to the playoffs and WIN! However, same players and especially Sam Baker, you have to wonder can the offense carry the load in games that are close or games that they need catch-up fast scoring capability too. GM Dimitroff blew the OT Holmes draft pick for this year by drafting another injured player so maybe next year he can contribute or wash-out since he was only rated 28th, not deserving to be drafted as high as the Falcons did! We are not in that position to reach on players for the offensive line, i sure hope they give Mike Johnson a fair shake to win the RG spot, he has never had a true opportunity to play that position in real games. Surely he is better than Hawley and Reynolds, both who blew their chance last year. QB Ryan can be very good with enough time to set up and pass, but his roll-outs are torture to watch. So Baker and Co. better block better and for a little longer to afford Ryan time to get the ball down the field to the fleet receivers we have. It is a shame that Ryan doesn’t have that flick of the wrist action like for example: Rodgers, Newton, Brady do to just escape pressure with quick accurate throws for completions and avoid sacks.. Ryan can throw the ball away out of bounds but doesn’t look for a quick wrist flick for a first down to a check down receiver–that is the difference in elite and very good quarterbacks in my honest opinion, i am not an expert. Falcons will be improved but will their won and loss record show it?? Thanks Mr. Bradley for posting my blog, D-Led blocks all of mine, guess he doesn’t like realistic comments!
hey mark...
August 7th, 2012
2:25 pm
you should change your name to Bark Madley one time and see if anybody catches it.
Silly Analysis by MB
August 7th, 2012
2:57 pm
So, the Falcons will play 5 games against teams who qualified for the playoffs in 2011 (above average teams) and 6 games against teams who didn’t quite qualify but had records of 7-9 or better in 2011 (average teams)? I believe that leaves 5 teams who had records of 6-10 or worse in 2011 (below average teams). That seems exactly like the kind of schedule one might expect to play and is hardly reason for concern.
Flacons never learn
August 7th, 2012
3:45 pm
I pre dict 4 – 12. 2 many fist round draft busts a long with no first round pix this year has this team domed from the strat. Thats what U get 4 trading a way a pix 4 Juliet Jones.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
August 7th, 2012
3:51 pm
PLAYOFF SLOTS:
Green Bay
Philly
Giants
San Fran
Detroit or Chicago
The only other playoff spot will be between Saints/Carolina/Tampa/Falcants
Good luck with those Superbowl predictions
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
August 7th, 2012
3:55 pm
Nite Owl
August 7th, 2012
9:57 am
@”Choke”:
You wanted to know how a team could go from losing a first-round playoff game to the Super Bowl the next year.
________________________________________
Nice try but you missed the most important statistic: Did any of those teams you listed have their offense shut out in the playoff game prior?
Didn’t think so
PMC
August 7th, 2012
4:00 pm
With what QB in Philly? Mike gets hurt every year like the Falcons don’t scratch in the playoffs.
The NFC north gets 3 teams in before the East gets 2.
RobbE33
August 7th, 2012
4:01 pm
If the guys play with a chip on their shoulders and the coaches can make adjustments during the game, we’ll be better. Otherwise…
David Puddy
August 7th, 2012
4:01 pm
The club certainly recovered–and then some–from the Vick/Petrino fiasco faster than most expected. Can’t see the team being more than we’ve seen the past cuople years; good enough to give the perception that they’re relevant. Key players getting older and not much to hang the hat on beyond a few up and comers. Am I wrong?
Mr. Hankey
August 7th, 2012
4:18 pm
Wow, what a soothsayer. How DO you do it? They’ll either be good or they’ll tank. If that ain’t psychic I don’t know what is. I’m a die hard fan. Problem is I can’t shake the cloud of doubt, nor will I even try until they win a playoff game. I’d rather them tank (SERIOUSLY!) than lay out that 60 minute pile of horse squeeze the plopped all over the Meadowlands or the Georgia Dome 2 yrs ago.
At least we had the foresight not to resign Keith Brooking(s).
DANG IT ALL! I can’t take another squatter in the playoffs. Don’t we get enough of that garbage from the Hawks and Braves? Hell, even the Dawgs choke on big games these days or have we forgotten South Carolina, let alone the Mich. State game. I can’t take it.
Mr. Hankey
August 7th, 2012
4:19 pm
Will someone, ANYONE, on the Falcons RISE UP and take us to the Promised Land? Talk about a love/hate affair.
Pitbull
August 7th, 2012
4:23 pm
I think after 46 or 47 years of football history, you have to go with the team trend.
The Falcons will tease, but will fold at the end.
Its a shame. I was living in Atlanta and have followed the Falcons since their first two NFL draft picks, Tommy Nobis and Randy Johnson.
I remember when Randy Johnson lined up to take the first Falcons snap from center, but he go confused and lined up under his right guard. The guard had to wave him over to the center to take the snap.
Bet you guys didn’t know that.It was a foreshadow of things to come.
The Atlanta Falcons and the Miami Dolphins franchises started the same year. Look at how many times the Dolphins have made it to the playoffs and the Super Bowl compared to the Falcons.
Mike Smith is the best coach the Falcons have ever had and has built the best team they have ever had.
Leeman Bennett was very good and might have gotten them there in another couple of years but the rug was pulled out from under him by the owners and he was replaced by a guy who couldn’t win a poker game with four aces and a king high.That is the history of the Falcons.
Mike Vick could have only happened to the Falcons.
For the Falcons, winning it all just isn’t in in the cards.
Brooklyn Bullies
August 7th, 2012
5:59 pm
Get rid of the dome and play in some harsh conditions and maybe this soft team will win when they travel and play in a harsh environment in January. GO GIANTS…..
JSS
August 7th, 2012
11:55 pm
True Falcon Fan
August 7th, 2012
12:31 pm
“YOU are the ignorant idiot!!!”
“YOU” really need to stop being self-reflexive in digital print…
CGD..
August 8th, 2012
12:07 am
Melt is 4-10 against the winners the past 2 seasons.. Give him a clip bd..We have seen this B4..
A buster he is.. The experiment is almost over.. Mr. Blank is already looking for a replacement…And he should…
Yawn………………………………………
CGD..
August 8th, 2012
12:11 am
An Epic Choke: Shutout by a 27th ranked defense???????????????????????????????????
Beyond embarrassing on a National stage…. Yep, Epic fail! History tends to repeat itself..He will…
PRETENDER he is for sure…………………………
CGD..
August 8th, 2012
12:15 am
42 million= 5 playoff wins [Ravens QB]
72 million= 0 playoff wins [Fal-cons QB]
Mr. Blank should ask for a refund! Brutal, Just Brutal..
Tree
August 8th, 2012
4:49 am
So a good season or a bad one, eh? What a bold prediction!
Tree
August 8th, 2012
4:52 am
Rise up is so played out….it is derived from falling flat in playoffs every year before.
That slogan needs to be put to rest as desperately as our playoff record.
Mike Smith on his Falcons: ‘We’ve got to do something better’ | Mark Bradley
August 8th, 2012
2:04 pm
[...] on how there’ll be no in-between for the Falcons this season, and why he thinks they’re going to the Super [...]
Robert Milner
August 8th, 2012
4:13 pm
Mark, you are off the mark about Falcons always losing in the first round of the playoffs, They lost to the Packers in 2011 then to the Giants this year and both became Superbowl champs….don’t you think that makes a difference?…..