The Falcons in 2012: I foresee a breakthrough – or a bellyflop
Is the sky the limit for the Falcons? Or will the ceiling be lower? (AJC photo by Hyosub Shin)
For four seasons the Falcons were essentially the same team, give or take. Since the arrival of Thomas Dimitroff (general manager), Mike Smith (coach), Matt Ryan (quarterback) and Michael Turner (running back), the franchise that had never known consecutive winning seasons had known nothing else — no fewer than nine victories in any year, three playoff appearances in four tries.
But also: No playoff success.
The belief here is that the steady-as-she-goes dynamic is about to change. The Falcons, I submit, will get really good in 2012 — and by “really good” I mean play-for-the-NFC-title-good — or they’ll slip below .500. No more 10-6 or 11-5 and lose to the eventual champ in Round 1. Either it’s the big breakthrough or the big bellyflop.
The oft-expressed belief here is that the Falcons had outgrown their coaching, and by this I don’t mean Smith. (He’s the best coach in Falcons annals by some distance.) But the coordination, particularly on offense but also on defense, had gone stale. This team had gone as far with Mike Mularkey and Brian VanGorder doing the scheming as it could. Now there are different men in charge of both X’s and O’s, and now we’re about to see if the Bradley Theory was correct or, as has been the case with other Bradley Theories, as wrong as all get-out.
I kept counting heads — Ryan, Turner, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, Julio Jones, John Abraham, Curtis Lofton (since departed), Brent Grimes, Dunta Robinson, Sean Weatherspoon — and telling myself: “There’s no reason for a team with this much talent not to win a playoff game.” I was telling myself as much even as I was watching this able aggregation lose 24-2 to the Giants in the Meadowlands. But here’s where I play devil’s advocate with myself and say, “Old son, what if you were again in error? What if this roster isn’t all that special?”
As much as I believe in what Dimitroff has done, I also confess to having moments of doubt. There are games when I’d wonder why White drops so many passes, if Turner isn’t already two steps over the hill, if Ryan is capable of leading a team to more than just respectability. I’d wonder about an offensive line incapable of getting an inch’s worth of push. I’d wonder about a defense that couldn’t trouble one of the league’s elite quarterbacks. In sum, I’d wonder if I hadn’t overrated the whole operation.
Let me be clear: I don’t think I had, or have. I thought/think this is one of the NFL’s most gifted teams. But now, for better or worse, we’re all about to find out. There can be no more excuses for these players. The defense has a new coordinator in Mike Nolan. The offense has a new coordinator in Dirk Koetter. The O-line has a new steward in Pat Hill. If Ryan can’t throw the deep ball or the linemen can’t get outside to block for a screen pass (which Koetter plans to feature), it won’t be Mularkey’s fault. He’s coaching the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The belief here is that this team will indeed break upward, that the Falcons stand closer to the Super Bowl today than at any time this century. But with great expectation — and I’m sure I’m not the only one who feels optimistic — comes intense pressure, and there’s a small part of me that thinks a sluggish start could spawn the sort of finger-pointing this team under Dimitroff/Smith has managed to avoid. (Only in 2009, when both Turner and Ryan were hurt, was there cause for real angst.)
And this schedule won’t be easy. Technically only five games will come against 2011 playoff qualifiers, but the Falcons must play six times against non-qualifiers who went 7-9 or better last season. Any given Sunday and all that.
I say again: I believe the 2012 Falcons will be stout enough to handle whatever comes their way. I believe that the new coaches will help lift this team to higher heights. But if these players don’t perform any better than they did under their old coaches, I don’t foresee (to invoke an infamous Falcons word) a plateau effect. If this doesn’t work, I see a cliff — and a fall.
Oh, and for all who feel this post was ambiguous as to my expectations for the Falcons … take a peek at this CineSport video.
By Mark Bradley
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150 comments Add your comment
old qb
August 6th, 2012
6:36 pm
I think the Falcons (if the injury bug doesn’t bite) will be better than last year. However, I keep looking at their schedule and they’ll have to really play well to finish 9-7. Hey, the Saints are the Saints, Tampa Bay will be much, much improved. Carolina with Cam Newton will be a real struggle. So, 9-7 isn’t terrible this year and if they can grab a wild card with that record they still have as good as anyone (other than Green Bay and San Francisco) of getting to the big one. Frankly, San Francisco is going to be the class of the NFC this season.
Hillbilly D
August 6th, 2012
6:43 pm
The Falcons in 2012: I foresee a breakthrough – or a bellyflop
Careful out there on that limb MB.
jerry
August 6th, 2012
6:52 pm
Chiefs 19, Packers 14. Chiefs stop Packers at 13-0 and end Packer win streak at 19 games at Arrowhead. A very dangerous opener for the Birds.
Saints Dismal History
August 6th, 2012
6:56 pm
Just beating the dismal Taints twice will make my year.
Brian F
August 6th, 2012
6:57 pm
If our offensive line is not significantly better, we should not be talking Super Bowl or even playoffs for that matter. When the offensive line stinks, it permeates throughout the whole team. Unfortunately, I just don’t see the line being SIGNIFICANTLY better. Hope I am wrong though.
marko
August 6th, 2012
7:06 pm
I think I met say Throw in mediocre. Have any of you people ever noticed that it;s hard to write when you’re sober?
SeminoleWarrior
August 6th, 2012
7:07 pm
Mark, we are feeling the same vibe, brother. There is a LOT on the line this season….
GT GRAD
August 6th, 2012
7:07 pm
Hey that’s me in the picture with the red shirt and blue hat (standing next to my Brother and Nephew —- along with 6 other family members/friends)………..prety cool!
I think the Falcons will win 10-12 regular season games. They will probably win 2 playoff games; after that who knows, but we have a chance to win it all (IF we find a legitimate starting caliber LT prior to the first game…….please some team cut one loose due to salary cap reasons!).
GT GRAD
August 6th, 2012
7:09 pm
I actually know how to spell “pretty”…..just a typo.
Beast from the East
August 6th, 2012
7:09 pm
Mike Nolan was a good hire and I expect to see much more pressure on the opposing QB. The offensive line play will tell the tale. If they’re solid then the sky’s the limit. If not, then you’ll see a similar result as the past few years.
Beast from the East
August 6th, 2012
7:12 pm
GT GRAD,
I don’t see anyone with a red shirt and blue hat. White, red, yellow and grey but no blue. Am I missing something?
The Truth
August 6th, 2012
7:24 pm
Flop for sure. Ryan is overrated, and doesn’t have the intangibles necessary to lead a team to victory when it counts. The DL is pedestrian, and the rest of the defense, save a few solid performers, is not championship material. Offensively, aside from Ryan’s shortcomings, the OL is awful and Turner is past his productive years – not to mention he doesn’t have a capable every-down back waiting in the wings to take over.
colelinski
August 6th, 2012
7:33 pm
10–6
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
August 6th, 2012
7:38 pm
Mark you have been preaching a breakthrough the past 5 seasons.
The only breakthrough will be Smitty/Dimitroff/CHOKE getting the boot
GT GRAD
August 6th, 2012
7:49 pm
My chin is almost dead center…….the hat looks a little more grey than blue!
Rick
August 6th, 2012
7:52 pm
Please put me down for this to be the season all you cry babies who have doubted us to have! I choose 11 and 5 maybe 12 and 4. I choose 3 wins for the offense, 3 for the defense, 1 for special teams 2 for all around team effort and 2 for coaching, maybe 3! Now when the wagon rolls dont you band jumpers come out the forrest; stay under your rocks and keep doubting! Dont need any bandwagon jumpers! In the famous words of Singletary “dont need them, we can win without you”. Mark keep your prediction and let the haters hate until they have to come back to the blog and say “Bradley I have to admit you were correct.” Rise Up Falcons, our year starts Thursday and we will be in the NO at the end of the year!
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
August 6th, 2012
7:53 pm
How in the HELL do you go from 0-3 in the playoffs and ZERO points in the playoffs to going to the Superbowl? Try scoring first.
More like Super Bowel than Super Bowl.
Really?
August 6th, 2012
7:54 pm
Sure never takes long for the Saints trolls to show up on an all Falcons blog. Not sure who the rest of the anti-fans are. Light that bad in your parents basement??
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
August 6th, 2012
7:56 pm
What have they done to score more than 2 points in a playoff game? They will be lucky to finish 3rd in the division.
Beast from the East
August 6th, 2012
8:03 pm
GT GRAD,
Gotcha! Now, tell me what the heck you all were staring at.
Nativebird
August 6th, 2012
8:08 pm
Good to see someone in the atlanta sports press FINALLY start objectively putting the onus on the franchise squarely where it belongs….coaching and front office. This franchise leadership talks a big game….but say nothing. Talk about championships…but have NOT done enough to win a single playoff game. Talks about fans and loyalty, but only wants to build bigger stadiums. It is clear to me that this culture comes from the top….a hammer salesmen that has spent s lifetime talking (selling) a big game. They need to shut up and WIN in the playoffs.
youTROLLScalledAINTS
August 6th, 2012
8:08 pm
Funny how these Trolls roll out to bash the home team but these cowards dont realize that they did not win it all last year if memory serves correct or the year before that! Then to boot I would not brag about scoring 41 points in a playoff game……and then still losing! Really! How about you jump back in the swamp you crawled out of and hold your breath until the Aints win it again!
Poor sad Failcant fans...like the one above...
August 6th, 2012
8:14 pm
Keep hating on the SB Champion Saints…..proves your jealousy of the Saints and your delusion and desperation with your no SB ring, no playoff win pathetic FAILCANTS….must be sad to be a Falclown fan…no hope of victory or respect at any level….fans like the one above – please return to your cashier station at Walmart or your trailer in the ghetto….who dat, we dat, we got da Ring… You got Nothing..lmao…..
Whopper Dawg
August 6th, 2012
8:16 pm
Interesting column. I am one that thinks they will hover about the same, maybe sneak into the playoffs, maybe not and here is why.
All the players you named only one plays on the line. JA, he of the lonely pass rush. He is all we have, and when you can’t generate a pass rush against the better teams, you know the kind you play in the playoffs, the guys with real good QBs, you get beat. A lot of the time, you get beaten badly.
Couple that with our Oline that can neither protect against the pass rush or open holes and provide push against the better defenses.
And the great equalizer is the QB. Ours is not there yet. He is pretty good, but has yet to seize the moment in games that really count.
Maybe all the injuries will heal and a pass rush will develop, maybe a couple of quality Oline starters will emerge from the pile of scrubs TD has draftd, maybe this is the year Ryan takes the next step, maybe the new coordinators are just what we needed.
I mean if we are so innovative that we are going to throw screens passes, maybe the sky is the limit.
But that is a helluva lot of maybes.
youTROLLScalledAINTS
August 6th, 2012
8:21 pm
Keep living in the past chump! Lol. You pathetic loser. You troll my teams blog living in the spare room of your Aunts trailer. Lol. Who dat? You dat that need to live in the past buster! No one cares about your “ring” from years ago swamp rat! I keep telling you suckers that the reason you will never sniff another ring is because you so focused on the pity party ring you got! Lol! Now go pour water in the toilet so you can flush your Aunts bathroom!
youTROLLScalledAINTS
August 6th, 2012
8:31 pm
As for those that call themselves “fans” (I use that term lightly). Guys how long did we beg for back-to-back winning seasons? How long did we beg for back-to-back playoff runs? Its a process guys. You first have to learn to crawl before you walk and we are running now! ( Please no comments from you Aint fans because your 6 year of being relevant does not count). Its time to be all in and become part of the Rise Up Nation or just find another team to cheer for, but go elsewhere and bash another team. We are the Falcons and we RISE UP!
Sid
August 6th, 2012
8:33 pm
Only reading the bylline, you are way out on a limb!
chief mojo rising
August 6th, 2012
8:41 pm
If this team F’s up one more time, fire them all, dimaettrophf and the whole coaching staff. Me hands get sappy when making love over stump
Sid
August 6th, 2012
8:56 pm
Matt “CHOKE” Ryan
August 6th, 2012
7:56 pm
What have they done to score more than 2 points in a playoff game? They will be lucky to finish 3rd in the division.
********************************************************
My god man, what have they done? Are you the village idiot? Could you be here in all your stupidity 30 minutes after the first Falcons playoff game……..cause that won’t be Week 1 of the Playoffs……!
HAHA
August 6th, 2012
9:51 pm
STOP WAFFLING AND TAKE A STANCE
AtLiens
August 6th, 2012
10:08 pm
Jeez how weak Bradley. Make a prediction. They can only do either of two things. Anything less than a playoff win is a bellyflop. there’s no middle ground this season.
The media needs to hold our teams more accountable maybe they and the fanbase won’t be so content with mediocre performances.
PMC
August 6th, 2012
10:59 pm
They didn’t do as much as I hoped, (I wanted a starter at Left Tackle) But I LOVE the Peter Konz pick (best interior lineman available), and they got the fullback from that Wisconsin team as well. They are loaded up in the skill positions, and Michael Turner is better than he gets credit for here.
The OL was a disaster last season without training camp. Despite a lot of picks on both lines of scrimmage and some free agents, It remains that this team needs to be better up front to get where they want. Ray Edwards has got to be the player they brought him in to be.
The schedule is too difficult to expect an amazing record, but this is a playoff team no doubt and they could definitely win this division. What they do when they get there, I can’t say but nothing would surprise me.
realitycheck
August 6th, 2012
11:46 pm
Hardly anyone outside the AJC or the 404 and 770 area codes are believers. A 3rd place divisional finish is possible because this team just isn’t that good unless they are playing a weak opponent. Clumsy and slow footed Matt Ryan in a SB? LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Eaglesfan
August 7th, 2012
12:06 am
This season is the ONLY time the Falcon’s will have a chance to make it to and through the playoffs. Lets face it, The Saint’s (now notoriously will be known as the caint’s)
Ed Stone
August 7th, 2012
12:09 am
MB, I know you don’t write the headlines, just the articles, as the great Furman Bisher once told me. Therefore I skipped the article. Who would waste their time reading this article with this headline?
Pete
August 7th, 2012
12:40 am
Have they fixed the O-line? That’s what cost us the season last year and if it isn’t significantly better this season the Falcon’s won’t be either.
A Complete Blank
August 7th, 2012
1:22 am
6-10….
Tokyo Tom
August 7th, 2012
2:18 am
Quit hating on MB- he isn’t predicting yet (unless you check his link back to the samuel column in April- he’s saying Super Bowl this year), he just pointing out possibilities.
As for me- 9 wins this year, which might take the division. No way to predict playoff record until field is set. I’ve been watching the Birds since the beginning, have had season tickets since 1973- sorry all you 790 listeners and transplants from yankeeland- I’ll gladly take 9 to 11 win seasons every year and not cry about not winning/getting to the SB. You whiners are the same who complain that, when Matt Ryan is considered a Top 10 QB, he isn’t a Top 5; when he gets to Top 5, that he isn’t Top 3; when he gets to Top 3 he isn’t No 1, when he wins a SB, he doesn’t win two, etc. Just shut up, please.
Oh- and NO TO ANY NEW STADIUM11111
Tokyo Tom
August 7th, 2012
2:20 am
Sorry- I meant NO TO ANY NEW STADIUM!!!!!
PLAYMAKER
August 7th, 2012
3:42 am
1st mistake=draft, the Falcons actually did better with undrafted rookies
2nd=letting Lofton go
3rd Not restructing FB O. MUG. contract
4th Staying put with OL
5th Giving a over the hill LB A SHOT TO START. Relying on Dent who probably isn’t ready.
6th Not getting a Super Bowl type punter
I hope I’m wrong. We need to win!
Najeh Davenpoop
August 7th, 2012
3:43 am
The first comment beat me to it. Way to take a stand.
I don’t know if they will make the playoffs, but I am 100% certain they will not win the division. If they make it, it will be as a wild card.
Ellabell1
August 7th, 2012
6:20 am
My only hope for this year is that when we get ahead a little we need to keep playing. Seems like we always slack off and then get ourselves in a bad position. We need to have the urgency factor and score points on every possession.
Working Stiff
August 7th, 2012
6:23 am
Time to rise up, Atlanta. Yeah….rise up and refuse to pay $80 for a ticket. Rise up and refuse to pay $20 to park. Rise up and refuse to pay $8 for a $1 beer at the stadium. Rise up and refuse to pay $6 for a $0.50 hot dog. Sure Arthur Blank needs the money but this is ridiculous!
Falcons 62 - Saints 7
August 7th, 2012
7:38 am
September 16, 1973
JSS
August 7th, 2012
8:04 am
“But here’s where I play devil’s advocate with myself and say, “Old son, what if you were again in error? What if this roster isn’t all that special?” Mark Bradley…
You almost hit a homerun there… They are very talented the NFL terms… But when they are stacked up in comparison to the teams that they have to leapfrog, they are not ”special!” It’s always been a glaring point… And when the Falcons finally add a talented piece, other teams like the Giants, the Packers, the Saints, and now the 49ers add 2 to 3 very special pieces at a much lower price! They are constantly playing catch-up… They are kinda like Milwaukee Bucks in the 1980s
Jackson
August 7th, 2012
8:34 am
They have the talent to go all the way, but do they have the fire? Time will tell, but I am thinking they will break through and surprise many.
Jackson
August 7th, 2012
8:56 am
My biggest concern is LT. Baker will be fine if his back holds up. Problem is back problems tend to be chronic, so it is dicey if he can hold up all season. I’m a big strong guy, and I know from experience that the smallest back issue can turn a big strong guy into a weakling. So let’s keep our fingers crossed.
Next concern is attitude. These “business like” players, which the Falcons are prone to look for need to develop a chip on their shoulders. They miss the “Havery Dahl” mentality. They need to get it back and prove to themselves that they are among the elite.
Saints 45 - Falcons 16
August 7th, 2012
9:02 am
December 26, 2011
Jim in Augusta
August 7th, 2012
9:12 am
Closer to the Super Bowl than any team in Falcon history? Where were you in 1998 inthe closing seconds of the playoff game with the Vikings? Plus I don’t see the logic in predicting either greatmess or being lousy. An objective look at any team would not lead to such a conclusion.
ATL Rocks
August 7th, 2012
9:15 am
The Falcons have the talent to run much more sophisticated strategies on both sides of the ball. Hopefully, the new coaching staff will implement some surprises.It got pretty boring last year watching Turner run it up the middle every play. However, I still think that Turner can be an effective weapon. The Falcons need to complement Turner with 10-15 yard screen plays, Gonzoles, and the deep threat from Douglas, White, and Julio. I also hope that Smith learned from last year and will use Matt Bryant if we are in range. He is one of the most accurate kickers in the NFL and a class act. I love the attitude the D has this year and look forward to terrorizing Newton, Brees, and Manning. The O-line is the big question mark. All in all, it should be an exciting season. I agree with the earlier posts that the Chiefs are going to be a tough opener, but we have the talent to go all the way this year if everyone stays healthy.