ESPN’s Law: The Braves overpaid for Maholm and Johnson
The young and gifted Arodys Vizcaino: A Brave no longer. (AJC photo by Jason Getz)
Keith Law might or might not be the shrewdest analyst of minor-league talent — me, I think he’s pretty sharp — but because he works for the Worldwide Leader he has the biggest audience. And when Law writes something on ESPN Insider, it resonates.
About the Braves’ trade with the Cubs, Law wrote this (link requires registration): “The price for Atlanta … was too high.”
Also this: “Atlanta gets marginally better for this year with the additions of [Paul] Maholm and [Reed] Johnson, but the Cubs land the best prospect they’re likely to obtain in this year’s trade market in exchange for two players they didn’t need.”
Law calls Maholm “a back-end starter with a proven record for durability” and Johnson “a capable extra outfielder … who has a long history of mashing left-handed pitching.”
About Arodys Vizcaino, the 21-year-old pitcher the Braves sent to the Cubs: This spring, Law ranked him as the No. 14 prospect in baseball, ahead of Julio Teheran (No. 18) and Randall Delgado (No. 98). Vizcaino underwent Tommy John surgery in April, but Law still projects him as “a No. 2 or better starter.”
A couple of things: The Braves weren’t sure if Vizcaino is more suited to be a reliever — in a brief big-league stint last season, he did only bullpen duty — and organizations tend to regard starters a bit more highly than relievers. We should also note that the Cubs, whose biggest deadline lure was Ryan Dempster, wanted Delgado in that trade with Atlanta that never was. Should we infer that the Cubs themselves saw Delgado as a better prospect than Vizcaino?
The belief here is that the Braves made a good trade, and not every good trade is a swindle. (The Fred McGriff trade? That was a swindle.) They addressed their two weaknesses – starting pitching and the bench – and yielded a prized young arm to do it. In the years ahead, it will be intriguing to monitor Vizcaino’s career path. It will also be intriguing to watch these Braves in the 2012 playoffs.
By Mark Bradley
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206 comments Add your comment
ozzie
August 2nd, 2012
12:31 pm
Until a Wren trade results in going deep into the playoffs and or winning a division title Law and others can/should be skeptical. This is not horse shoes where close wins you something.
It was a win now trade but not an “all in” win now trade. That would have been Greinke. They could have gotten Reed for spare parts if the trade was just for him.
Greinke and Reed would have been all in move and you would still have Viz coming back in ST. Yes it may have cost you Julio T or Delgado but Viz if he starts will be a #1/1a. Julio T is a 2-3 and Delgado a 3-4 unless they prove otherwise.
I have seen Delgado, Julio T and Viz pitch. Viz has the nastiest stuff by far and more of a killer instinct. The other two are easily rattled as their performance has indicated.
Both are very good young pitchers but when Viz is back expect to see him have a more linear progression to high impact.
Wren is assuming Viz is a replacement for KImbrel which he doesn’t need so he is taking a chance. But I agree with Law – Viz can be made into a power starter something the Braves have not had since Smoltz in his prime.
Soft tossers, junket ball pitchers only can take you so far. Guys who throw 95+ and make batters knees buckle with power sliders etc are true stoppers and invaluable in the post season.
Rick
August 2nd, 2012
12:52 pm
ozzie, if the Braves wanted to beat the Angels’ offer for Greinke they probably would have had to give up Teheran, Betancourt, and Simmons. Even if you think Vizcaino is better than Delgado and Teheran, you are losing more than just one player in that deal.
ozzie
August 2nd, 2012
1:00 pm
Agreed 100% it would have been for more than one guy but Simmons versus a SS prospect is not a good comparison nor would Wren have had to offer that body to make a deal IMHO.
The pitchers were lower in the minor league system if I recall so not as polished as Julio or Randell. We had ML ready arms to make the trade and while I like Bethancourt a lot his lack of offense is well documented.
If you want to win now getting a soft tossing 4th started with a career ERA well over 4 (lefties are hitting .304 off of him btw) who had a hot July is a conservative way to do it.
Wren lacked the money to take on the remainder of Greinke’s contract IMHO plus he is fearful of trading Julio T even with terrible AAA numbers this year.
The Cubs paid all the remaining salary (2012) for their two players which I think sealed the deal and why they had to offer up Viz.
Brandon Lee
August 3rd, 2012
10:23 am
Law is Stuck in the “Prospect” mode of evaluations. Point being Vizcaino Never lived up to being Consistent in what the Braves Expected from him, and there was nothing to present that he ever would. If he Improves with the Cubs then he and the Cubs fans will be Happy. For Now, As Bradley stated the Braves pursued a Stronger proposition to fit their needs. ESPN Writers have always been too far up in the Clouds to see what Everybody Else under the sun knows as Obvious. They FLUNKED-Out on both Mike Trout and Bryce HArper Saying neither would be an Impact Player… They apparently weren’t even in the Ballpark !!! So i don’t waste my time with ESPN anymore. So good advice for anyone sapiring to be a Sports Writer/Commentary, Get out of the High-rise, and Get Down to the Ballpark and See for yourself.
WeBurn
August 3rd, 2012
4:51 pm
We overpaid for what we got back.
Big Crimson 75
August 4th, 2012
9:10 pm
I believe He gets credit for a “quality” start tonight.