ESPN’s Law: The Braves overpaid for Maholm and Johnson
The young and gifted Arodys Vizcaino: A Brave no longer. (AJC photo by Jason Getz)
Keith Law might or might not be the shrewdest analyst of minor-league talent — me, I think he’s pretty sharp — but because he works for the Worldwide Leader he has the biggest audience. And when Law writes something on ESPN Insider, it resonates.
About the Braves’ trade with the Cubs, Law wrote this (link requires registration): “The price for Atlanta … was too high.”
Also this: “Atlanta gets marginally better for this year with the additions of [Paul] Maholm and [Reed] Johnson, but the Cubs land the best prospect they’re likely to obtain in this year’s trade market in exchange for two players they didn’t need.”
Law calls Maholm “a back-end starter with a proven record for durability” and Johnson “a capable extra outfielder … who has a long history of mashing left-handed pitching.”
About Arodys Vizcaino, the 21-year-old pitcher the Braves sent to the Cubs: This spring, Law ranked him as the No. 14 prospect in baseball, ahead of Julio Teheran (No. 18) and Randall Delgado (No. 98). Vizcaino underwent Tommy John surgery in April, but Law still projects him as “a No. 2 or better starter.”
A couple of things: The Braves weren’t sure if Vizcaino is more suited to be a reliever — in a brief big-league stint last season, he did only bullpen duty — and organizations tend to regard starters a bit more highly than relievers. We should also note that the Cubs, whose biggest deadline lure was Ryan Dempster, wanted Delgado in that trade with Atlanta that never was. Should we infer that the Cubs themselves saw Delgado as a better prospect than Vizcaino?
The belief here is that the Braves made a good trade, and not every good trade is a swindle. (The Fred McGriff trade? That was a swindle.) They addressed their two weaknesses – starting pitching and the bench – and yielded a prized young arm to do it. In the years ahead, it will be intriguing to monitor Vizcaino’s career path. It will also be intriguing to watch these Braves in the 2012 playoffs.
By Mark Bradley
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
206 comments Add your comment
Bill
August 1st, 2012
3:17 pm
I’m not surprised by Keith Law’s opinion. In the spring, he listed Vizcaino as the 14th best prospect in MLB and the Braves’ best prospect — ahead of Teheran, Delgado, and Simmons. I expect that Braves’ organization does not have exactly the same rankings. Plus, as several people have pointed out, the Braves’ still have a number of starting pitching prospects and they can’t all pitch for the Braves.
Look Vizcaino might turn out to be another John Smoltz — but remember that Doyle Alexander went 9-0 for the Tigers after being traded for Smoltz and was critical in the Tigers making the playoffs. (BTW, when Alexander was traded from the Braves in 1987, his ERA was 4.13 — so he wasn’t exactly having a career year until he went to Detroit.)
HUH?????????????
August 1st, 2012
3:23 pm
“ESPN’s Law: The Braves overpaid for Maholm and Johnson”
The same ESPN that sets up camp outside the JETS football practices?
steve
August 1st, 2012
3:23 pm
I would rather have Maholm and Johnson then Dempster, also rather have Delgado then Viscaino, you never can rate how good a trade is until a few years down the road, the main thing you have to ask is does this give us a better chance to win now and the answer is yes because Viscaino cannot help us now and another lefthanded starter plus a good right handed hitting bat definitely gives us a better chance, would like to see us extend Johnsons contract 1 to 2 years.
TB
August 1st, 2012
3:29 pm
Bottom line is Viz can’t help now & these guys can. You never know if a pitcher is going to come back from Tommy John surgery, although lately, there’s a good many that not only came back but got better. Still, it’s a big risk. If I may be so bold to ask, exactly what team(s) did Mr. Law pick to win the National league East? The playoffs? The World Series? I’m willing to bet he said Miami was the answer to the first question.
Skeezix
August 1st, 2012
3:30 pm
Not a reader of Law’s column, but I disagree with him on this. This was a plus trade for Atlanta given where we are in the standings and the Braves needs to get better. I have not been a big fan of FW. I was spoiled, I guess by the genius of JS. But I have now moved FW up a notch or two because of last year’s Bourn trade, Ben Sheets, Durbin, Janis, and now this recent trade with the Cubs. Yes, we all wish we could have kept Viz. and he will most likely be very good, but the Braves had to upgrade the rotation now to have a decent shot at the 2012 Division title. The Cubs had to get something in return, or no deal. Also, when he very tactfully sent the message to Dempster (thru the media) that the Braves weren’t impressed with his childish tantrums and were moving on–I loved it. And even the Franscisco deal has turned out okay. Who would have ever thought that after Juan’s first game when he made two errors on one play.
BravesFaninNashville
August 1st, 2012
3:35 pm
Whether the Braves overpaid or not remains to be seen but even if Vizcaino becomes the pitcher he could be it won’t help the Braves now in Chippers last year. We need to do everything we can to get into the Playoffs and then anything can happen. Look how inspired the Cardinals were in Tony LaRussa’s last season. It’s very believable to think the Cubs didn’t see Vizcaino as high on the prospect list as Delgado since that’s who they wanted for Dempster. I think this trade gives us two pieces that will help more than Dempster alone would have plus we control Maholm past this year. Very reasonable salary for a #3 or 4 starter. Minor is more talented and will probably become a #2 so we can live with Maholm at #4 next year and move on. Reed Johnson will win us at least 1 or 2 games and that could be the difference between being a Wildcard or a Division Champ. Good move. We didn’t get a #1 but I’m not sure it’s smart to pay an ace $100 Million plus and that’s what it would have taken to sign Grienke long term. This way we still have our kids under control for 6 years and can build a team around them with the money we didn’t spend on a Grienke.
Is there a pitcher ever besides Sabathia that has been close to worth their contract that got over $100 Million?
Kevin Brown – No
Mike Hampton – No
Cliff Lee – No
Johan Santana – No
Derek Lowe’s contract was an anchor to the Braves at $60 million. The Yankees didn’t get their money’s worth from A.J. Burnett at $72 Million. Sabathia could get hurt or decline in the remaining 4-1/2 years the Yankees have to go on him. Beckett’s contract in Boston makes him untradeable and the Red Sox don’t want him pitching for them anymore.
Big contracts to pitchers just don’t make sense. I like what the Braves did with Tim Hudson. I know as long as there is one team willing to over pay a pitcher to get them these kind of contracts will continue. I’m just glad it’s not the Braves writing the checks for them… (Most of Mike Hampton’s contract was paid by previous teams who traded him to the Braves or insurance)
IlliniBrave
August 1st, 2012
3:40 pm
I didn’t like the trade before I read Law’s column. Now I’m even more opposed to it. I really don’t think this made us better. Maybe having Johnson on the bench helps, but Maholm is snake-oil and will eventually burn you.
the truth...
August 1st, 2012
3:41 pm
The trade was great, CONSIDERING THIS:
Had Big Frank and Fredi brought Medlen out of the pen earlier and let him show what he can do as a starter, the yielding of Vizcaino might not have been necessary…..
That point was hammered home last night when Meds went 5 innings in a relative breeze…now they’re saying he’s one and done this time starting…..
Here’s hoping tht Meds gets his due shot beyond one brief rain soaked night….
Other than that what does ESPN know?
Thomas Brown
August 1st, 2012
3:46 pm
Mark Bradley,
Atlanta braves, about # 15 baseball team, that all you got to talk about, sir ?
_________
OLYMPICS
_________
Last time I checked, that is a sports event, right ?
lee maye
August 1st, 2012
3:52 pm
Actually Luscious Lucius, Uggla, Heyward, and Bourn have all struck out too much. Uggla is on target for over 180 K’s; Heyward and Bourn for over 150. Those 3 are probably in the top 10 in the league for K’s.
P.T. Barnum
August 1st, 2012
3:57 pm
So hanson is on the DL with lower back problems is that the reason he can’t bend for grounders or run to cover first? Maholm may not be the best but he is healthy and can pitch. Can he bend for a grounder? Run to cover fiirst? Then he is a definite improvement over hanson.
1991 braves
August 1st, 2012
3:57 pm
Potential is a very scary thing. Most people never reach their so-called potential. Perfect example is Teheran. At this point Viscaino is in the same position as Teheran. Would much rather have proven players in the majors than potential Cy Young winners in the minors. Hopefully Maholm can replace Medlen in long relief in the bull pen now that Meds is in starting rotation. Or maybe, Hanson gets even more out of shape partying in buckhead for the next 2 weeks, and both Medlen and Maholm can be the #4&5 starters in rotation. Hanson can’t get past 5 innings because he is so out of shape both mentally&physically. His fastball never hit 90 last 2 starts, and it was 92+ before. Amazing what drinking late at night in buckhead and partying with the hotties does to your fastball.Johnson could be the key to the braves stretch run. If fat fredi will allow this guy to pinch hit and fill in for Prado in left, this will be a huge upgrade for the braves. Just get Hanson and Hinske out of the lineup and the braves can catch the Nats.
Can We Talk?
August 1st, 2012
4:04 pm
FROM THE LAST LINE OF THE ARTICLE:”…It will also be intriguing to watch these Braves in the 2012 playoffs….”
YTD, the Braves are 10-20 vs. teams that were in first place at the time they played them. That’s a 0.333 Win.Pct.
The only two starters doing .500 or better against this tier of competition are Hanson (2-0) & Hudson(3-3)
The July run (18-8) has been against teams mostly below .500 (12-3) vs. those above .500-including 1st place teams (6-5) and breaking out the 1st place teams out of that group is (3-5).
So, how will the Braves do in the playoffs? Should they get there they better hope Medlen, Sheets and Maholm are the improvement they needed for the starting staff, otherwise its an early exit.
Matt
August 1st, 2012
4:15 pm
Thomas Brown,
#15 in baseball?
Try 7th in the most recent power rankings on ESPN.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/powerrankings
T-5th record in Major League Baseball (with Pitt).
15th? No sir.
Columbus
August 1st, 2012
4:19 pm
Man I am loving this post vacation Mark Bradley! Or is it REALLY Bradley?!
I infer this is a BETTER trade than Dempster….Dempster would have been GONE after the season. Maholm has a 3.04 ERA not counting his first 2 starts of the season AND is a lefty and Johnson is SORELY needed in 2 ways. Plays all outfield positions including CENTER and is a GREAT pinch hitter and plays HARD. This was a FAIR trade.
Did I mention a 3.04 ERA and NEXT season?! Did I mention an AWESOME pinch hitter that can play left and center instead of Hinske or Diaz? Best pinch hitter on the team. Good trade. Very good trade. I hope it works out for both teams…Nice dealing with you Theo
RunninWithTheDawgs
August 1st, 2012
4:21 pm
This is a no brainer. We trade two prospect farm team pitchers, one disabled from Tommy John surgery, for a proven major league pitcher and a proven major league outfielder. I can’t agree with Keith Law at all. These two players may be what we needed to make it to the World Series. GO BRAVES !
TB
August 1st, 2012
4:25 pm
Maholm & Johnson had impressive number on the Cubs, which as much as I’ve always liked them, is a crappy team. What do you think these guys are going to do on a contender like the Braves? They will thrive–BIG TIME!!!
Scoots
August 1st, 2012
4:33 pm
It’s not always about who got the better value of the trade on an apples-to-apples comparison. It’s also about a team’s needs. Braves needed a starter, a backup outfielder, and better pinch hitting. They addressed their needs and still get Maholm back next year at a good price. Vizcaino has great potential, but also injury-prone at an early age. Maybe – I repeat, Maybe- he becomes a great relief pitcher; but it still comes down to the fact the he doesn’t fulfill the Braves needs and Malholm/Johnson do.
Billdawg
August 1st, 2012
4:33 pm
Mark – Old saying goes bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Viz isn’t even in the bush yet. As the others on this blog state, no assurance he’ll even fly again. Odds are he will and have some success, but no guarantee that would make him as higl ranking for a prospect as he has been FORECAST.
Marie
August 1st, 2012
4:34 pm
If ESPN says it, it must be true-not.
Stuart
August 1st, 2012
4:36 pm
E-Extremely
S-Sanctimonious
P-Pusshead
N-Network
Keith Law has to trash somebody. That is the m.o. of the analysts with the Mothership. He managed to get a column from Mark and comments from you folks.
Personally, it was a very good trade because it filled the Braves’ current needs. The team can rest any of the three outfielders or bench Uggla, etc.
As for Maholm, he should do well this year and next when he signed to play for our Atlanta Braves.
By the way, I am waiting for ESPN to begin their descent down the tubes.
Rogie
August 1st, 2012
4:36 pm
Paul Maholm has been a pretty decent starter with the Pirates and the Cubs — not very good teams. I wonder how he’ll do with better defense and better run support. So, a pennant race trade involving a potential and unproven talent in Vizcaino for a steady starter that has been on bottom feeder teams seems like a pretty good roll of the dice to me.
UltimaParadox
August 1st, 2012
4:36 pm
Dont agree with the trade as Delgado would have provided the same results as Maholm.
Theo did what you should always do when a pitcher is pitching above his talent level… SELL HIGH.
2012 Comparison
Delgado/Maholm
4.12/4.11 FIP
4.18/4.20 xFIP
Maholm has a career 4.30 ERA and career 4.20 FIP. Guy is a mediocre number 5 starter and they just arguably a top 100 prospect in all of baseball for a replaceable #5 starter and a bench OF. Just wait till next year when they pay his 500K buyout so they dont owe him 6.5 million dollars when cheaper options in Delgado/Teheran/Gilmartin are available with even better results.
And the argument about arm trouble is valid, but remember that among MLB pitchers the success rate of TJ surgery is around 85-92%, you can look that up. Both times that Viz had to be shut down was due to the UCL, which lead to the TJ.
birdo
August 1st, 2012
4:44 pm
Who cares what someone from ESPN says. If its not the Yankees, Boston or Texas they hardly report it. I can’t be the only one that notices the bias reporting. I guess it has to do with the big money markets. I hope the Braves continue to be under the radar and go as far as we can.
Coach (2012 Fredi's Beisbol Fandango)
August 1st, 2012
4:48 pm
Arodys Vizcaino may be a big time prospect, but he’s also unproven. So for Law to say we overpaid is just tabloid journalism at it’s best. Hell, Law could work for the national inquirer, given his talent for overblown verbosity.
In the meantime, Maholm and Johnson will help our Braves get to the playoffs. Which is well worth it when considering the soon to retire Chipper Jones, and the need to see our future Hall of Fame 3rd sacker getting one more shot at the post season.
birdo
August 1st, 2012
4:53 pm
How about us rating the baseball analyst. Where would KL be rated? An analyst that can forecast a pitcher ability after tommy john surgery must be from a different planet.
KHuff
August 1st, 2012
5:02 pm
The deal is done. Think it was pretty good.all considered. I hope Wren and the Owners will make a hard move for a front line starter in the off season ~ Greinke. Malholm and Johnson have options that the Braves can use next year. The fear of the Texeria deal made the control of players beyond these two months a must. Let them play ball and get to the post season and all the talking about it won’t matter. Go Braves!
Brave in NC
August 1st, 2012
5:31 pm
If Maholm pitches well and if Johnson gives us some key hits and some occasional good starts, then its the right move at the right time. If he doesn’t, then hindsight may show it to be a bad move. But given that Delgado and Teheran are both healthy and that Vizcaino may not be ready until some point during the season next year and still uncertain at that, given that yet another future starter in Gilmartin is now at the AAA level, given that we have a strong bullpen and didn’t necessarily need Vizcaino there, and given that we absolutely needed help with more pitching and right-handed offense from the bench, this was the right move at the time under the circumstances. I agree with the front office on this one.
Marlon D.
August 1st, 2012
5:36 pm
Vizcaino has had arm problems even when he was a Yankees prospect. MLB Network is the place to watch for baseball news,I haven’t watched ESPN in a long time.
least of the east
August 1st, 2012
5:47 pm
Vizcaino is never healthy. if he hardly pitches, who cares how good he is ? the sellers always have the advantage on 7/1. Maholm has pitched very well last 6 starts (like a #2 in fact) and team has an option for 2013-not a 2 month rental.
the wide disparity in his rankings for Vizcaino and delgado show law isn’t that sharp. BA had them as #2 and #3 and Jim Callis says starters with no injury history like delgado are worth more.
Delgado for a 2 month rental in Dempster was a worse trade.
look at what the Dodgers gave up for 2 mos of Victorino. Ethan martin (from Ga. HS) will be better than Vizcaino. 2nd guy Phils got was #2 pick and is already doing well in Majors.
donte080
August 1st, 2012
5:54 pm
Time will tell….Dempster trade would have been a lopsided deal of too much for a rental..this trade fills two needs on a team that has a slew of young arms who aren’t ready yet….we can’t keep them all….
Jeff R
August 1st, 2012
5:54 pm
Law’s wrong, in my estimation.
Okay, Law has a megaphone heard across the land. Good for him, but it doesn’t make his opinions and analysis infallible.
BRAVESFAN
August 1st, 2012
6:13 pm
I thought Varvaro got traded with that picture at:
http://www.ajc.com/sports/atlanta-braves/
Fast Ball
August 1st, 2012
6:15 pm
We got what we need – Right Now !
Time will tell for the long run. Gotz2 plug those holes.
BRAVESFAN
August 1st, 2012
6:21 pm
Any Baseball Today podcast listeners notice that Eric Karabell has been away since the Braves swept the Phillies? I remember him saying they shouldn’t start selling if they lose one or even two games against the Braves that weekend. The best thing was listening the podcast on Monday after the sweep. There must be a hashtag for paybackisamf!
Army Strong
August 1st, 2012
6:27 pm
At the ripe age of 21, Vizcaino is already on his 2nd Tommy John surgery. I’m not a doctor, but if I was selling health insurance, his premium wouldn’t exactly be affordable for your regular John Doe. Johnson is a veteran grinder. A Brooks Conrad who can actually field a lot of positions and hit for average. Malholm is a number 4 guy who can help this team in the playoffs if he stays as hot as he has been his past 5 starts. He’s locked up for next year just in case Teheran or Delgado aren’t ready to make a full jump yet. Good move.
Tommy Thompson
August 1st, 2012
6:31 pm
Maybe we could get another 11 million dollar.210 hitter like Uggla.
Dawg'88
August 1st, 2012
6:45 pm
The concensus is? Headline is way off base. One man (critic) is not a concensus. Does anyone read or edit these headlines that someone makes up and I do mean “makes up”.
bfred
August 1st, 2012
6:52 pm
There’s such a thing as a “fair trade,” you know. No one got taken to the cleaners here – the Braves addressed two immediate pressing needs that improve their post-season odds and the Cubs added prospects and got something for a couple of guys who would probably have left in free agency last year.
The Braves currently occupy one of the wild card spots and are closing in on the Nats. Strasberg is a couple of weeks away from having his innings curtailed and Harper is struggling, and recent history has shown that ANYTHING can happen once the playoffs start. In this game you grab your chances when you can get them. The Braves have a near blank check once Chipper and the rest of Lowe’s contract come off the books after this season and can afford to sign talent if they need it.
bfred
August 1st, 2012
6:54 pm
Sorry – “left in free agency NEXT year”
retired
August 1st, 2012
7:24 pm
ESPN wrong again…..
just the other day some player (forgot name) hit a homerun in first major league at bat and they said it hadn’t been done since 2004 ………. guess they forgot J-Hey in 2010.
Screw Law……
Teddy B
August 1st, 2012
7:48 pm
retired- I believe they were talking about a First Pitch HR, which Starling Marte hit in his first career at bat ‘the other day’, so maybe that is what you were thinking of. Its done far less than first At Bat HRs in a career.
Disgusted
August 1st, 2012
9:02 pm
Vizcaino is damaged goods not with the surgery and he was not that good in his brief cup of coffee here.
We have young pitching, and at least we did not give up real pitchers like Minor, Delgado and though he has not shown much in MLB yet, Teheran. And I am glad they did not give up Gilmartin.
Keith Law is no one that Braves fans should take seriously, Vizcaino was an overhyped prospect in the hallolwed Yanks system and my thinking is that he is more likely to be a bust.
The Braves are fine with the deal they made, this is a deal that could be afforded.
Plate Appearance
August 1st, 2012
9:10 pm
I DEFINITELY AGREE
Mark, I couldn’t agree more! Thanks for calling Wren “out on the carpet” so to speak on this one!
Wren not only overpaid; he WAY OVERPAID — in using very poor judgment!!
Moreover, Frank not only robbed the Braves of having a potential star in the rotation or the bullpen for many years ahead, but he also robbed the fans of enjoying such a talented pitcher — after we’ve long looked forward to the return of Vizcaino from Tommy John surgery.
I guess Frank thought he could “sneak” this one by the media and fans.
I’m of the opinion that Wren is probably ego driven in his need to not only make a “significant” trade of substance but to win at all costs.
It’s a shame, a real shame!
I no longer have confidence in Wren as a GM.
In spite of an occasional good decision — such as signing Ben Sheets — Frank makes far too many bad decisions.
And this was a VERY BAD DECISION!
HelpBraves'Fans
August 1st, 2012
10:11 pm
I respect Keith Law but disagree. Arodys Vizcaino may be the 14th rated prospect in baseball but he has been oft injured. On top of that, I haven’t seen anyone mention that he won’t be the closer in Atlanta. The Braves have the best closer in baseball in Craig Kimbrel. For that reason, he was expendable and landed Allanta two of its biggest needs….a solid starting pitcher and a solid outfielder that can play any of the outfield positions.
John
August 1st, 2012
11:50 pm
No way he was a pitcher who has elbow issues and he is going to be out for the season and next season is going to be a struggle by the time he gets back to form his contract is going to run out! We got what we needed!
The Braves Blog » Blog Archive » ESPN’s Keith Law: The Braves overpaid for Maholm and Johnson | Mark Bradley
August 2nd, 2012
6:53 am
[...] read the rest: http://blogs.ajc.com/mark-bradley-blog/2012/08/01/espns-keith-law-the-braves-overpaid-for-maholm-and…. [...]
bry
August 2nd, 2012
8:35 am
How can you call this a bad trade when you don’t know how these youngsters will even pan out. The majority of “hot” prospects never make it to the show. These players are here to help the Braves right now so looks good to me.
Don
August 2nd, 2012
9:10 am
Why did the AJC print the information about Hanson being injured.
A Braves Pitcher getting injured can no longer be classified as NEWS.
don
August 2nd, 2012
11:11 am
I regularly criticize trades made by Schuerholz and Wren. I will continue to do so because I believe we must never forget the Teixeira disaster (the JD Drew debacle wasn’t much better). However, I believe this trade needed to be made.