ESPN’s Law: The Braves overpaid for Maholm and Johnson
The young and gifted Arodys Vizcaino: A Brave no longer. (AJC photo by Jason Getz)
Keith Law might or might not be the shrewdest analyst of minor-league talent — me, I think he’s pretty sharp — but because he works for the Worldwide Leader he has the biggest audience. And when Law writes something on ESPN Insider, it resonates.
About the Braves’ trade with the Cubs, Law wrote this (link requires registration): “The price for Atlanta … was too high.”
Also this: “Atlanta gets marginally better for this year with the additions of [Paul] Maholm and [Reed] Johnson, but the Cubs land the best prospect they’re likely to obtain in this year’s trade market in exchange for two players they didn’t need.”
Law calls Maholm “a back-end starter with a proven record for durability” and Johnson “a capable extra outfielder … who has a long history of mashing left-handed pitching.”
About Arodys Vizcaino, the 21-year-old pitcher the Braves sent to the Cubs: This spring, Law ranked him as the No. 14 prospect in baseball, ahead of Julio Teheran (No. 18) and Randall Delgado (No. 98). Vizcaino underwent Tommy John surgery in April, but Law still projects him as “a No. 2 or better starter.”
A couple of things: The Braves weren’t sure if Vizcaino is more suited to be a reliever — in a brief big-league stint last season, he did only bullpen duty — and organizations tend to regard starters a bit more highly than relievers. We should also note that the Cubs, whose biggest deadline lure was Ryan Dempster, wanted Delgado in that trade with Atlanta that never was. Should we infer that the Cubs themselves saw Delgado as a better prospect than Vizcaino?
The belief here is that the Braves made a good trade, and not every good trade is a swindle. (The Fred McGriff trade? That was a swindle.) They addressed their two weaknesses – starting pitching and the bench – and yielded a prized young arm to do it. In the years ahead, it will be intriguing to monitor Vizcaino’s career path. It will also be intriguing to watch these Braves in the 2012 playoffs.
By Mark Bradley
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206 comments Add your comment
Rick
August 1st, 2012
1:21 pm
submariner, Teheran has an ERA over 5 and only averaging around 5 IP per start this season, and you want him starting for the big league club? Simmons had not played about A ball prior to this season. If you’re talking about Gattis, he just came back from a several month stint on the DL and still has only played a handful of games in LF. You’re clueless.
wreckbuzz
August 1st, 2012
1:23 pm
Having Tommy John surgery is not a death sentence for a pitcher. Having TJ before you reach the majors (to stay) is not either. But that’s two elbow injuries in 3 seasons. So the Braves have to think holding on to Vizcaino was not a priority if they could help themselves now. He might turn out to be a quality pitcher with the Cubs. But he was tracking towards being a late innings reliever, which means he would have been blocked by Kimbrel & Venters to reach his full potential (closer). And with the number of (healthy) prospects the Braves have at the back end of the ML rotation (Minor), AAA (Delgado, Teheran, Gilmartin) & AA (Spurill), there was no guarantee he would have been one of their starting 5 either.
Plus, the Cubs obviously viewed Delgado as a better prospect since he was their asking price for the higher profile Dempster. So the Braves came out okay. Maybe the Cubs do too, and if they do it doesn’t mean the Braves lost this trade. Sometimes trades can be a win-win.
Rick
August 1st, 2012
1:23 pm
*above, not about
Personally I think guys are being rushed too fast into the big leagues now. Guys like Harper and Trout who have such immediate success at a young age are not the norm.
ppaaddy123
August 1st, 2012
1:25 pm
the Tex deal was not Wren’s fault. But this organization is starting to get the reputation of not being able to close the deal.
bart
August 1st, 2012
1:26 pm
ESPN commentators have always disrespected the Braves and generally been negative in their views. Watched a synopsis of the National league pennant & wild card races and they mentioned and commented on all the current contenders except the Braves. How can anyone have this discussion and make absolutely no mention of the Braves.
Dan Morton
August 1st, 2012
1:28 pm
It must have been a bad trade — now we only have Hudson, Hanson, Beachy ( back next Summer ), Minor, Maholm ( have an option on him next year) , Medlin, Teheran, Delgado, Gilmartin and ( yes ) Jurjiens as starters.Omigod! Unless we have some unknown need for 11 starting pitchers I think we will be okay…..
Great trade — Maholm is worth the risk – big upside and if he doesn’t work out – we have Medlin who once again proved what a stud he is last night. In Johnson we got the leagues’ number 1 righthanded pinch hitter ( a dire need with all of the lefties we are seeing ) and a terrific defensive 4th outfielder.
tony austin
August 1st, 2012
1:29 pm
There’s no pleasing some people is there? The Braves had a need, they fulfilled it, end of story. Other GMs are not going to just give you their players, there is a price to pay. I swear if the Braves gave away a future 186th round draft pick from the year 2085 people would complain that the price is too high.
ppaaddy123
August 1st, 2012
1:31 pm
You’re right, bart. maybe they just take us for granted now. Maybe our guys can use that as motivation.
submariner
August 1st, 2012
1:32 pm
Rick – Ben Sheets ERA was bad coming out of Mississippi. Big deal.
DetroitBraves
August 1st, 2012
1:33 pm
The reliever-starter issue is key. We won’t know the answer to that for a while. Unfortunately, Wren and Co. don’t have the benefit of hindsight. Either way, it’s a decent deal for the Cubs. For the Braves, it may very well be a case of buying high and selling low, but we have to assume Wren understands the issues and his data suggests Vizcaino can’t log enough innings in a season to realize his once lofty prospect status. It’s not an easy question to answer. An easier question to answer is how good exactly is Paul Maholm? I think Keith Law has that about right. We’ll see how much difference an extra win might make. Of course, one could argue that one more win may have been more cheapy attained by hiring a more competent manager….but I digress.
JoeFan
August 1st, 2012
1:33 pm
Never heard of Keith Law. Who knows how Vizcaino will recover. It appears the Cubs are taking a flyer here.
submariner
August 1st, 2012
1:34 pm
….and I’m talking about Christian Betancourt.
ppaaddy123
August 1st, 2012
1:35 pm
Kudos to Buster Olney. He just gave the Braves props for what they did. Tell Keith Law to shove it!
walknbalk
August 1st, 2012
1:38 pm
One would think AJC could put a picture of Vizcaino on the front page for a article discussing Vizcaino.
NO O
August 1st, 2012
1:39 pm
What is espn
Time
August 1st, 2012
1:39 pm
@Kirk, believe me I know. I’d go into why, but I might get called a SABR geek or something..lol. Anyways, it doesn’t take one of those to look at this pitcher and see a bad teams 5th starter. The eye test certainly says that’s what he is. Then just a look at the most basic pitching stats back the eye test up. I find it funny so many want to ignore career stats and focus on a very selective few weeks of this year to justify this guy as a improvement. He’s not better than Minor, Medlen or Delgado who all just need to be given time to develop instead of being yanked around. Not to even get into Tehran, who I admit, is not ready to dominate at the major league level yet. But I’d rather see him in that #5 slot and live with his struggles while he develops than some journeyman with a mid 4 ERA. Which is exactly what Maholm is. Sorry folks, Leo ain’t around anymore to pull John Burkett miracles.
@Rick – I concede that Johnson is probably a upgrade as a 4th outfielder/pinch hitter. Would have been fine pickup for some mid level AA prospect or something. But not for young pitching prospects that even have a chance at developing into a front of the rotation starter. Which clearly, Vizcaino has.
Nate in SLC
August 1st, 2012
1:41 pm
I do not understand why we made this trade. There will be 10 teams in the playoffs, almost each with an equal shot of winning the world series with the crazy nature of the MLB playoffs. According to ESPN, we had a 78% chance of making the playoffs before the trade. Do Maholm and Johnson really increase that? I would not say they do. And once we get to the playoffs, do they really increase our odds of winning the world series? NO!!! Maholm is NOT a playoff-caliber starter!! So, what exactly does this trade give us? If we win the world series, it will not be because of this trade. So, it appears to me that we just gave up one of the best pitching prospects in the world, who is likely to have a good-great 10-15 year MLB career without increasing our chances of winning a world series. I HATE DEADLINE TRADES.
Rick
August 1st, 2012
1:44 pm
submariner, pretty big difference. Ben Sheets had been out of the majors but he is still a veteran player with lots of past experience. Teheran only has a handful of starts in the ML and has clearly regressed from last year. It would be idiotic for a contending team to thrust him into the rotation. We aren’t the Astros here.
Christian Betancourt is known much more for his defense than his offense, which is still a work in progress. Moving him to left field so he could play in the majors now make no sense at all.
DetroitBraves
August 1st, 2012
1:49 pm
Buster Olney is a fine writer and maybe the most trustworthy source for inside information in baseball since Peter Gammons has backed off much of his national responsbilities. However, he is not the analyst that Keith Law is – either in terms of statistical analysis or in terms of experience (given Law’s background in the Toronto front office and his recent flirtations with the Astros). That isn’t to say Keith Law is correct on all counts. No one is. But his opinion carries weight within the industry. Summarily dismissing an opposing viewpoint, especially one from a reputable source, because it doesn’t affirm some convienent predisposition is probably not the best way to further understand the problem.
Shaun
August 1st, 2012
1:49 pm
Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus ranks Vizcaino as the third-best traded prospect moved at this season’s deadline:
3. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Cubs (from Braves)
Scouting Profile: A 21 year-old Dominican who dominated at times last year out of the big league bullpen. Tommy John surgery in spring, back for spring 2013. Undersized, with violent delivery, but stuff plays up out of the bullpen with a fastball that sits at 96 and touches 98, as well as a plus power breaking ball. Closer potential.
Path With New Club: The Cubs have plenty of room for their prospects, and once fully healthy and rehabbed, Vizcaino could assume a role in the back of the Cubs bullpen as a closer-in-training while Carlos Marmol plays out the last year of his contract.
If Goldstein is right and Vizcaino is merely a closer, the moves looks a lot better than if Vizcaino is capable of starting.
DetroitBraves
August 1st, 2012
1:51 pm
Moving Betancourt, one of the most highly regarded defensive catching prospects in recent memory, to a corner outfield spot when his bat doesn’t even play well at catcher would be one of the worst moves in the history of organized baseball.
ppaaddy123
August 1st, 2012
1:51 pm
How hard is it to judge a prospect? I’m sure if you could ask an angel’s fan last year about Mike Trout, they would tell you he was over rated. the Angels brought him up last year and he was terrible!. Big difference a year makes!
georgiajeepn
August 1st, 2012
1:54 pm
You have to get to the playoffs to win the world series so the trade was a good one..
WooYeah
August 1st, 2012
1:56 pm
One Good Prospect for Two Proven Pieces = A Win-Win.
Vizcaino is intriguing, but he hasn’t proven anything in the majors yet.
Remember the hype onn Jurjenns and Hanson anybody?
Potential = Yet to Be Proven.
The guys we got are a solid #3/#4 rotation guy, and a proven punch of the bench. The operative word here being “proven.”
We have a chance to go for it all. We had to do it.
Unless Vizcaino turns into perennial All-Star, this one looks like a wash.
ppaaddy123
August 1st, 2012
1:58 pm
3. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Cubs (from Braves)
Scouting Profile: A 21 year-old Dominican who dominated at times last year out of the big league bullpen. Tommy John surgery in spring, back for spring 2013. Undersized, with violent delivery, but stuff plays up out of the bullpen with a fastball that sits at 96 and touches 98, as well as a plus power breaking ball. Closer potential.
Undersized with a violent delivery…………..sounds like more health and/or arm troubles in the future!
LawDawg
August 1st, 2012
1:59 pm
Keith Law has proven he knows players, but he (like most of those at the network) have WAY overvalued hard-throwing relievers. Even closers only pitch 75 innings a year. Hell, Aroldis Chapman may be amazing, but he pitches 1 inning every two days. Who cares? We need a solid innings eater like Maholm a helluva lot more than a guy who will never be a SP.
In no uncertain terms, if a guy has no SP upside, he is always going to be valued much, much higher than he is actually worth by the talking heads.
I'm Just Saying
August 1st, 2012
2:00 pm
Is it true that all three ‘prospects’ that the Braves traded for Mark Texira were in the 2012 Major League Baseball game? Who made THAT deal??
GaryinBham
August 1st, 2012
2:02 pm
If we win it all, it was a great deal. Otherwise, it looks fair enough for both teams with a potentially huge upside for the Cubs down the road, but you never, never know. An injury history already. And with Hanson out, looks like a good trade for the Braves already. If the rest of our team plays up to potential the rest of the way, no worries. I’ve always liked Reed Johnson. I anticipate some real contributions from him before it’s over. I think Tehran and Delgado will still give us more than enough of a pitching future before it’s over with. Minor is getting better week after week. And let us not forge Brandon Beachy and money available next year to spend. We’ll be fine.
Don’t know Keith Law and I don’t read ESPN at all. Their website charges for everything. No thanks. I follow AJC, the Braves MLB site, MLB trade rumors and CNNSI. Get enough from there.
ppaaddy123
August 1st, 2012
2:02 pm
Even if Vizcaino ends up an all star, If we win now or even if the trade only helps get us into the playoffs, didn’t it fill our immediate need?
Father Time
August 1st, 2012
2:05 pm
Just hold on. I’ll let you know if it was a good trade or bad. Or neither.
Joe Brave
August 1st, 2012
2:06 pm
Overpaid? Well, if the Braves NEEDED a closer, we could have a discussion. But the Braves have the BEST CLOSER IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL and someone who likely will break all records for closers.
Trading away something you DON’T NEED for a GLARING, OBVIOUS, IMMEDIATE NEED = OUTSTANDING TRADE. Good move, Mr. Wren.
Kentavo
August 1st, 2012
2:06 pm
Vizcaino looked like a deer in the headlights during his call-up; couldn’t find the strike zone. But I’m not suggesting he won’t ever pan out, but he’s at least a couple of years away considering TJ rehab.
chc4
August 1st, 2012
2:09 pm
@ bvillebaron — Law didn’t bash our minor league system when FF, Heyward, Kimbrel, etc were coming thru the system. He hammers it NOW…. as do most. We have taken a huge step back and don’t have much at all in the low level minors. Especially non-pitchers. And before anyone mentions Bethancourt and Salcedo they were not drafted. We acquired them via international signing… we’ve always been strong in that regard (except the Kawakami deal). In terms of the draft we’ve had some lean ones the last 3-4 years.
ppaaddy123
August 1st, 2012
2:09 pm
Would just like to pint out the Braves picked up Chad Durbin after the Nats released him this year. Bullpens normally have guys like him. Nats trash, but our treasure. So, if Vizcaino ends up a closer he has a ton of value. If not, he’s a Chad Durbin.
kirkinga
August 1st, 2012
2:11 pm
Just to be clear: the trade should help the Braves, especially the bench. I still would bet that Malholm is wearing a different uniform this time next season.
I would also remind people that predicting who would be “blocked” is also a risky business. As it turns out, out of the Tex deal, only Salty turned out to be blocked. Had Vizcaino been healthy, he would likely be in the pen today. He already has two + pitches which is plenty enough to pitch in the big leagues.
Wendy
August 1st, 2012
2:14 pm
Something tells me that Frank Wren and Bobby Cox know just a weeeeeeeeeee bit more about baseball and evaluating talent than some bloggerdoouche from ESPN.
WendyO
August 1st, 2012
2:15 pm
Something tells me that Frank Wren and Bobby Cox know just a weeeeeeeeeee bit more about baseball and evaluating talent than some bloggerdoouche from ESPN.
gcs
August 1st, 2012
2:16 pm
In a few years, you will see Arodys Vizcaino in the All-Star game.
Meanwhile, Reed Johnson will be out of baseball and Maholm will be pitching middle relief for Seattle.
ESPN puts the D in ouche
August 1st, 2012
2:16 pm
Keith Law has an easy job..he can critique someone else’s move with out ever having a chance to be a General Manager. He may be highly regarded but all of ESPN are a bunch of Braves haters. I never watch ESPN (actually, I look at it when I’m out drinking) and I don’t support their web site, and I haven’t for years. Keith is just like one of us..he has an opinion and will never be a GM. Vizzy may be a Cy Young dude down the road but it’s a chance I like. Good job Frank. Go Braves!
BiggDawgK
August 1st, 2012
2:16 pm
Keith Law and all the pundits here that are eager to call any move the Brave’s make was bad are in a no lose situation. If vizcaino comes back strong and the Brave’s fizzle in the playoff’s they can thump their chests and claim they are brilliant. If vizcaino never lives up to his potential and/or the Braves go deep in the playoffs because of the trade Law and the Braves haters will just complain about somthing else and never comment on the trade again.
gcs
August 1st, 2012
2:20 pm
“Johnson ‘a capable extra outfielder … who has a long history of mashing left-handed pitching.’ ”
Isn’t this was Matt Diaz does? How is that filling a need?
Rick
August 1st, 2012
2:24 pm
gcs, Diaz is on the DL with a thumb injury and could possibly be out for the season if he needs surgery.
Charles
August 1st, 2012
2:25 pm
Not a fan of ESPN and obviously they are not a fan of small market teams like the Braves, unless there is a story that they can promote. We gave up a pitcher who has had TJ surgery for one who we can keep for next year and Law says we gave too much? Gotta be out of it to say such.
Ted Striker
August 1st, 2012
2:27 pm
I have no idea what the trade will yield.
I’ll take Bradley’s opin and we’ll go with it (ha!).
However this much i know….. “but the Cubs land the best prospect they’re likely to obtain in this year’s trade market in exchange for two players they didn’t need.”
That part — no disrespect to Law, a capable and talented professional — has zero effect on the Braves. Sometimes a TRADE is good for both teams. That’s a beautiful thing when it works out for both teams. Hope it does.
Alright, Markus Bradlius…churn out another column, the clock is ticking.
p.s. You do a good job and I actually paid for a print version of the AJC (we don’t get delivery in Athens) one Sunday morning just as a gesture of support for your fine literary artistry.
Shoulda got the cappuccino and a twinkie but hey…i’m an doofus.
tmc
August 1st, 2012
2:32 pm
I find it hard to believe that any Cubs player helps the Braves team, much less two.
The Cubs suck and their roster is full of avg to below avg talent.
Najeh Davenpoop
August 1st, 2012
2:36 pm
If Maholm and Johnson help the Braves win a championship, it is a good trade even if Vizcaino ends up in the Hall of Fame some day.
I-285 Perez
August 1st, 2012
2:45 pm
MB – it’s a good trade. given the injury, i’ll keep my faith in Delgado, Tehran, and Minor. Quite frankly I think we dodged a huge bullet by not making the Dempter (and allegedly Delgado) trade. Talk about a shortsighted trade. This deal is nice redemption for Wren which leads me to ask the question of whether or not you think he comes up with trade scenarios by drawing names out of a hat? seems that way to the casual, die hard, know it all fan.
atl_bravo
August 1st, 2012
2:51 pm
Vizcaino is going to be good pitcher. But he is going to cubs and they are going to stink as usual. We can get him back when the next fire sale happens!!!
Buzz2011
August 1st, 2012
3:08 pm
How many hits did Uggs get in his 4 at bats last night? Did he rip the cover
off the ball or drop to an ” all star like” 200 batting average? He weighs more than he hits..
charles harris
August 1st, 2012
3:16 pm
Mark-it seems Maholm had his way with us when he pitched against us this year-could you check the stats?