Braves at the break: Another arm could push them to the top
Pitcher Zack Greinke: Today a Milwaukee Brewer, tomorrow an Atlanta Brave? (AP photo)
Something instructive just occurred: The Braves, who rank next-to-last in the National League in quality starts, ran off five in a row. That marked the first time this season that the rotation has turned over while producing only quality starts — at least six innings with three or fewer earned runs — and it came in the five games leading into the All-Star break. Not coincidentally, the Braves won four.
A team treading water began to look again like a good club. Yes, it helped that Brian McCann went on a homer-a-game jag, but in baseball everything starts, duh, with starting pitching. If the Braves pitch better after the break than they did before it, they’ll make the playoffs with room to spare.
For all that didn’t happen over a first half that even the cheerful manager Fredi Gonzalez described as “just OK,” the Braves haven’t played themselves out of anything. They’ve left the impression they coulda/shoulda done better, but what they did wasn’t awful. They’re second in the NL East, four games behind Washington. They’re also second in the wild-card standings, which means they’d qualify if the postseason commenced today.
But that doesn’t mean the Braves are a playoff lock. We learned a year ago that strange things can happen in September, and the strangest things happen when you’re strapped for pitching. That’s what befell the Braves of 2011: Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson got hurt and Derek Lowe couldn’t get anybody out and the rotation was reduced to Tim Hudson and a bunch of kids and the lockdown bullpen finally buckled under the strain.
We’ve already seen the Braves send a 2011 All-Star pitcher (Jurrjens) to the minors and lose their best pitcher (Beachy) to arm surgery. We’ve seen them grow so desperate they dispatched Kris Medlen to Gwinnett to remember how to throw more innings and signed Ben Sheets, who has been out of baseball since 2010, to a minor-league contract. But now the rotation looks as spiffy as it has all season. Time to leave well enough alone?
Nope. Because this rotation just spent three months proving it’s not good enough to sustain a top-shelf team. (Let’s also note that these five quality starts came against sub-.500 opposition.) To make the playoffs and do damage once there, the Braves will need someone who can be better than Jurrjens, Mike Minor and Randall Delgado have been. Maybe it’s Zack Greinke. Maybe it’s Ryan Dempster. From what we saw last week at Turner Field, it’s not Matt Garza.
Landing a Greinke or a Dempster will almost certainly involve trading a young arm for an older one, which isn’t usually wise, and it could yield only a short-term rental. (Both Greinke and Dempster will be free agents. Remember, however, that the Braves won’t be paying Chipper Jones or Lowe next season.) But let’s review where the Braves are: They’ve missed the playoffs five of the past six seasons; they haven’t won a playoff series since 2001, and they’re coming off an Epic Collapse.
This is a big year for everyone involved with the organization. The Braves will reach the trading deadline with a real chance of playing beyond the 162nd game, and July has become a general manager’s time to fish or cut bait. Asked last week if he felt he had work to do this month, Frank Wren said: “We all have work to do.”
It was out of character for Wren to stand pat over the winter. It’s unthinkable he would do it again. His team has two blatant needs — its middling rotation and a lousy bench that will be taxed even more with Andrelton Simmons’ broken finger. Wren needs to address both. The guess here is that, just this once, he’ll be willing to pay a high cost in young talent to do it.
We caught a glimpse of how good the Braves can be if their starting pitchers can get them to the seventh inning. Even with Jonny Venters ineffective/injured, the bullpen is still stellar, and there are enough proven hitters in this batting order to do damage. The reason the Braves haven’t been better is that they haven’t pitched well enough. If Wren can fix that, his team can take the division.
By Mark Bradley
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124 comments Add your comment
Don
July 10th, 2012
11:34 am
EVERYTHING ELSE – MATTERS NOT – As long as we contiue to get all (or almost all of our great pitching talent INJURED – like we have for the 7 long years since Leo left.
Just Wanna Say
July 10th, 2012
12:13 pm
I can’t remember what website it was, whether it was Olney or something quoted on mlbtraderumors, but Greinke has come out and said that he would like to play in Atlanta. To me, that means he is worth the players because we can resign him in the winter. Sheets has looked okay so far as well. Could actually end up having a pretty good rotation.
WhoCares?
July 10th, 2012
12:54 pm
Greinke is a little shaky emotionally, has had trouble pitching in the spotlight. Not sure he’s best for Atlanta. How about Felix Hernandez? He’s young and a power thrower, certainly a No. 1, and Seattle has a lot of needs. Could we throw enough at them to get King Felix before the Red Sox?
P Rose
July 10th, 2012
12:55 pm
Couldn’t disagree with you more this time, Mark. Trading Minor or Delgado would be disatrous in the long run. Forget this season. It’s all about Chipper, not making the playoffs. They won’t, no matter what they do — especially since they just had a major downgrade at shortstop. The young arms will come around next year. They just need some major league seasoning. Remember Glavine’s, Maddux’s and Smoltz’s early numbers — they weren’t good. I’m not saying Minor and Delgado are Glavine and Smoltz, but they are going to be a lot better than Dempster and Greinke in a year or two, especially since Dempster and Greinke will be long gone after their contracts are up. Neither of them is that much a difference maker anyway. The Braves need to be patient, accept that this year is a wash, and rebuild for years to come by standing pat with their batch of talented young pitchers.
Skokie Dog
July 10th, 2012
12:59 pm
Len Barker is available, and we won’t have to give up any young prospects to sign the guy. Don’t forget, he once threw a no-hitter!
Jimbo Donnan
July 10th, 2012
1:01 pm
Why do people keep mentioning Sheets? He is a complete question mark, who will get one, maybe two starts before they realize Minor/Delgado are better. Dude hasn’t pitched in two years… yeah, that’ll put us over the top…
DHD
July 10th, 2012
1:02 pm
It’s that crazy Bobby Cox’s fault. Kinda like blaming Bush, you know.
Homer the Braves
July 10th, 2012
1:04 pm
That Scott Diamond trade ain’t looking to good right now (unless you’re a Twins fan).
Homer the Braves
July 10th, 2012
1:21 pm
The Braves have announced that Ben Sheets is scheduled to pitch Sunday against the Mets. They left the decision to Sheets as to whether or not he wants to make a 3rd start for Mississippi before being activated. It looks like he’s ready to go.
Mark's for the braves
July 10th, 2012
2:01 pm
If Sheets is even close to his old form that will be a huge shot in the arm. Trade for a SP, too, but don’t give up the farm.
willieghatelibertymedia
July 10th, 2012
3:14 pm
land of whatever yr name is yousaid go longterm, the braves havent won a ws in 17yrs they have on bren in plsyoffs 1 in 6 yrs and it been so damn long i cant remember when they made it to second long term my heine you must be stupid.
Richie
July 10th, 2012
3:15 pm
How about attempting to acquire Brendan Ryan from the Mariners for our SS needs? Real strong glove and can play pretty much all over the field. Primary spot would be short. Braves need to maintain the defense they lost with Simmons out
BigdaddyJ
July 10th, 2012
3:23 pm
Need some bench help. Hinske has gone awol. Wilson is awful with the bat…
willieghatelibertymedia
July 10th, 2012
3:35 pm
ben sheets is giving up 3 or 4 down there in minors he will give up 8 up here these guys are major leaguers here film to watch pitcher study them and sunday santana who is santsna of old is back and daturday mr knuckelball dickey the braves csnt win at home sorry fans sheets will fall like rain out of dky hes not yr savior with yr ownership no one is
willieghatelibertymedia
July 10th, 2012
3:44 pm
ben sheets the braves must be living in fantasy land
LawDawg
July 10th, 2012
3:53 pm
If we could get Greinke long-term and add a decent bat at third to replace chipper after the season, that would be pretty great. With Lowe and Chipper both off the payroll, they should definitely chase Greinke before the deadline.
Drew
July 10th, 2012
4:38 pm
They need a #1 starter. Without a top starter, they will never be a serious championship condender. I can’t think of a team in the last 20 years that has won without a top caliber pitcher. While the staff they have (including a healthy Beachy) is nice and promising, they are not the #1 that they need.
Old Dog
July 10th, 2012
5:08 pm
Yankees and Red Sox will not pursue Greinke for what was called personal issues.
Who's Gault? A Fictional Character!
July 10th, 2012
5:09 pm
Oh the Braves will do what they do best… pick up an over-the-hill retread pitcher and see if he’s got something in the tank… and then the Braves will claim they’ve solidified the position!!! So tired of this.
JoeyBagOBravos
July 10th, 2012
5:09 pm
I hate to trade young arms as much as anyone, but it’s getting to the point that we are hoarding them.
There isn’t enough room for 7 starters (Hudson, Hanson, Jurrgens, Minor, Delgado, Teheran, Sheets) and eventually Beachy – 8 starters.
If we can get Greinke, a Cy Young winner by trading one arm and some other marginal prospects, then so be it. If we can get Justin Upton by trading a starter or two, then so be it.
2011champs
July 10th, 2012
5:35 pm
Yeah, yeah, yeah… Mark, you are the same one that thought the Braves had it made in the shade last year, and I tried to tell you who would be the wild card team, but as usual with you, it did not sink in. Let me go on the record now and tell you up front that they are a 3rd place team with absolutely no leadership either on or off the field, and they will not be a playoff team.
Braves face questions at shortstop, New York Mets to open second half | Atlanta Braves
July 13th, 2012
1:48 pm
[...] The Braves still rank only 12th in the National League with a 4.11 ERA from their starters, but they’ve got to feel good about what they’ve gotten from their starters of late. The Braves put up five quality starts the last time through the rotation, going 4-1 with a 2.97 ERA, as esteemed colleague Mark Bradley talked about in his column. [...]
Braves face questions at shortstop, New York Mets to open second half | MLB.Fans-Talk.com
July 14th, 2012
2:50 am
[...] The Braves still rank only 12th in the National League with a 4.11 ERA from their starters, but they’ve got to feel good about what they’ve gotten from their starters of late. The Braves put up five quality starts the last time through the rotation, going 4-1 with a 2.97 ERA, as esteemed colleague Mark Bradley talked about in his column. [...]
pepper
July 16th, 2012
9:51 am
First, the goal is not to make the playoffs. The goal is to win a championship. Just making the playoffs is what the Hawks have been selling us for years now. Is that the best the Braves can aspire to? Make the playoffs and pray we get hot? Is that an actual “plan” or is that simply a fantasy Liberty Media peddles to keep ticket sales high? There is no way that Grienke gets us over the top to a championship team for all the reasons Bradley has already laid out above. Second, the only reason we have a roster issue right now is that we don’t have Matt Harrison starting for us, Feliz bolstering the bullpen and Elvis Andrus at shortstop. We have none of these players because we had an “all in” year and sold them for Mark Teixeira. How did that work out? Why does it work out better now? I”ve got an idea. Why don’t we keep those players and let them develop? Ah, nevermind. the organization that trades the entire career of Adam Wainright for one season of JD Drew is unlikely to understand what I’m saying. Third, after this season is over, we’ll have issues at catcher, left field and center field. That is gonna cost real money to fix. Do we want to lock down a huge contract for Grienke and then have to fill in with marginal players to solve those slots OR do we want to count on our young pitchers to grow into their talent? I remember the bloody mess that Glavine, Smoltz, and Maddox were their first seasons. They got better. So will our young starters if we have faith and patience. Fourth, why don’t we take a slightly longer view here. Next year, Chipper retires and Prado to 3B. Bourn will be very expensive to sign and we still have a LF hole. If we are insistent on trading a good prospect or two, then why don’t we simply go get Justin Upton? He’s under a reasonable contract for multiple years. he’s got as much talent as Heyward. He and Heyward could anchor middle of our lineup at MVP levels for the next decade with a terrific 1-2 punch AND both are terrific fielders. This would leave the Braves with enough money to solve other problems with actual talent. Maybe we would then have the money for a Bourn or to sign Mccann or go get a third quality outfielder.
could we possibly think beyond this particular moment in time?