Braves at the break: Another arm could push them to the top
Pitcher Zack Greinke: Today a Milwaukee Brewer, tomorrow an Atlanta Brave? (AP photo)
Something instructive just occurred: The Braves, who rank next-to-last in the National League in quality starts, ran off five in a row. That marked the first time this season that the rotation has turned over while producing only quality starts — at least six innings with three or fewer earned runs — and it came in the five games leading into the All-Star break. Not coincidentally, the Braves won four.
A team treading water began to look again like a good club. Yes, it helped that Brian McCann went on a homer-a-game jag, but in baseball everything starts, duh, with starting pitching. If the Braves pitch better after the break than they did before it, they’ll make the playoffs with room to spare.
For all that didn’t happen over a first half that even the cheerful manager Fredi Gonzalez described as “just OK,” the Braves haven’t played themselves out of anything. They’ve left the impression they coulda/shoulda done better, but what they did wasn’t awful. They’re second in the NL East, four games behind Washington. They’re also second in the wild-card standings, which means they’d qualify if the postseason commenced today.
But that doesn’t mean the Braves are a playoff lock. We learned a year ago that strange things can happen in September, and the strangest things happen when you’re strapped for pitching. That’s what befell the Braves of 2011: Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson got hurt and Derek Lowe couldn’t get anybody out and the rotation was reduced to Tim Hudson and a bunch of kids and the lockdown bullpen finally buckled under the strain.
We’ve already seen the Braves send a 2011 All-Star pitcher (Jurrjens) to the minors and lose their best pitcher (Beachy) to arm surgery. We’ve seen them grow so desperate they dispatched Kris Medlen to Gwinnett to remember how to throw more innings and signed Ben Sheets, who has been out of baseball since 2010, to a minor-league contract. But now the rotation looks as spiffy as it has all season. Time to leave well enough alone?
Nope. Because this rotation just spent three months proving it’s not good enough to sustain a top-shelf team. (Let’s also note that these five quality starts came against sub-.500 opposition.) To make the playoffs and do damage once there, the Braves will need someone who can be better than Jurrjens, Mike Minor and Randall Delgado have been. Maybe it’s Zack Greinke. Maybe it’s Ryan Dempster. From what we saw last week at Turner Field, it’s not Matt Garza.
Landing a Greinke or a Dempster will almost certainly involve trading a young arm for an older one, which isn’t usually wise, and it could yield only a short-term rental. (Both Greinke and Dempster will be free agents. Remember, however, that the Braves won’t be paying Chipper Jones or Lowe next season.) But let’s review where the Braves are: They’ve missed the playoffs five of the past six seasons; they haven’t won a playoff series since 2001, and they’re coming off an Epic Collapse.
This is a big year for everyone involved with the organization. The Braves will reach the trading deadline with a real chance of playing beyond the 162nd game, and July has become a general manager’s time to fish or cut bait. Asked last week if he felt he had work to do this month, Frank Wren said: “We all have work to do.”
It was out of character for Wren to stand pat over the winter. It’s unthinkable he would do it again. His team has two blatant needs — its middling rotation and a lousy bench that will be taxed even more with Andrelton Simmons’ broken finger. Wren needs to address both. The guess here is that, just this once, he’ll be willing to pay a high cost in young talent to do it.
We caught a glimpse of how good the Braves can be if their starting pitchers can get them to the seventh inning. Even with Jonny Venters ineffective/injured, the bullpen is still stellar, and there are enough proven hitters in this batting order to do damage. The reason the Braves haven’t been better is that they haven’t pitched well enough. If Wren can fix that, his team can take the division.
By Mark Bradley
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124 comments Add your comment
ChopChamps95
July 9th, 2012
6:37 pm
Dave, I’m betting he sits tight on waiver deals and takes a chance with Pastornicky and I’d even go as far to say if Pastor does well while Simmons is out, Wilson is as good as gone. And as far as canning Fredi goes…….I definitely could see Wren pulling the plug before the season is done if they fall out of it. Wren didn’t choose Fredi as the manager, Cox did so the loyalty to keep him isn’t there if someone needs to be the fall guy. But with that being said, at the same time I could also see Wren doing nothing in the offseason and the entire coaching staff being brought back if we miss the postseason or not.
IlliniBrave
July 9th, 2012
6:39 pm
@Dave: I like the idea of picking up a piece-of-trash SS on the waiver wire – one that will cost us nothing and then we can dump him when Andrelton comes back. We should not give up ANYTHING for any position player. A pitcher maybe. But not a SS.
Timothy Bradley
July 9th, 2012
6:47 pm
No rentals. The Texiera Tax is still being collected.
Vel Crow
July 9th, 2012
6:49 pm
The Braves should make a play for Trevor Plouffe to upgrade their bench. The guy is a righthanded power hitter, who plays six positions for the TWINS. He also has hit 19 hrs and is only 26 years old and can take over 3rd base when Chipper retires.
Mark Bradley
July 9th, 2012
6:49 pm
Just for the record: Fredi Gonzalez was Frank Wren’s choice. Bobby Cox had no role in picking his successor.
Sonny Clusters
July 9th, 2012
6:55 pm
Well, we hate to dispute what Mark just said but we have it on good authority that Bobby Cox picked Fredi right out of his nose! Frank Wren has a little bird nose but everybody knows Bobby Cox had a stretched out nose from all that nose picking. Now, it may be gross but that’s what we heard from a good friend of ours who cashes a major league paycheck.
Stinger 2
July 9th, 2012
7:05 pm
Clusters: Your comment is much worse than gross. Its nasty and has no place on any blog. Do yo ever say anything positive about any Brave player or the management? Also, I would believe Mark knows a lot more about what happens relating to Managers being picked by whom than you do.
ChopChamps95
July 9th, 2012
7:05 pm
Mark I believe that about as much as I believe OJ, Ray Lewis, and Casey Anthony are all innocent of the murder charges they dodged. We’ll have to agree to disagree. Every company, organization, etc has stuff they make public for everyone to know and stuff on the inside only they know. Wren may have given the final stamp of approval but everyone with a brainstem know FG was Cox’s sole hand picked replacement and no one else’s.
IlliniBrave
July 9th, 2012
7:16 pm
@Vel Crow: not gonna get Plouffe – just like you’re not gonna get Trumbo, Trout, Jennings, Harper, Goldshmidt, Desmond, or any of the other breakout players. These are the guys that organizations wait on for one or two per decade. It would take either malcontent on the part of the player – think Rasmus or Escobar – or a serious personal problem – aka Josh Hamilton – or a major return on the investment. You got a better chance of waiting for hell to freeze over or to see Fredi quit tipping his cap.
ACE
July 9th, 2012
7:17 pm
No way Frank made the decision to hire Fredi without Bobby’s blessing. If you think so just keep on drinking that koolaid.
Double Zero Eight
July 9th, 2012
7:30 pm
I disagree. The Braves are more in need of
a big bat than another arm.
Coach (2012 Fredi's Beisbol Fandango)
July 9th, 2012
8:01 pm
Mark Bradley, correct to a tee.
This 2012 edition needs another quality starter, preferably one who won’t cost the farm. My money is on the Twins Francisco Liriano. He’s a lefty, never pitched in the NL which alone is a huge advantage. Not to mention his 2.74 ERA since rejoining the Twins rotation, in which Liriano has made eight starts (six quality) and he’s up for free agency….. Bringing his trade value down.
As for the our putrid bench, I told you so. Wren knew this could happen and it has. They don’t have the depth to sustain injuries to the starting eight. This is Wren’s fault and he knows it.
Coach (2012 Fredi's Beisbol Fandango)
July 9th, 2012
8:06 pm
Double Zero Eight
July 9th, 2012
7:30 pm
I disagree. The Braves are more in need of
a big bat than another arm.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Um REALLY?
No. Bradley is correct, we need pitching and the math proves Mark to be right. We have scored 391 runs in 85 games played. Equaling out to 4.6 runs per contest which ranks 4th in the NL out of 16 teams.
JC Boscan III
July 9th, 2012
8:08 pm
Ben Sheets – 1 hitless inning with a strikeout, only took 9 pitches to get 3 outs. Much better beginning than his first AA start….. for whatever it’s worth!
Geno
July 9th, 2012
8:08 pm
Wow! Good comments overall! Good article, Mark. Let’s hope that a move is made for a starting pitcher and I agree that we should stand pat on ss. A bench player(s) would also be a breath of fresh air. Hinske is definitely on the downside, and Diaz, while gritty, is too inconsistent. Wilson is no help. Waiver wire should be examined to reload the bench. I prefer Minor over Delgado, but thats just me. After opening the year with that 4 game losing streak and then the 8-game debacle, I’m just happy to be in the mix of things. Go Braves!
VinceVanGo
July 9th, 2012
8:50 pm
I agree that the Braves need another starter, a super utility player that can hit .240, and an overhaul of the bench, but I’m more concerned with what happens in the off season. The Braves have little chance to re-sign Michael Bourne, and the Nationals need a center fielder. If they get Bourne they’ll rule the East for 5 years. Mark it down!
Sonny Clusters
July 9th, 2012
9:06 pm
Tender Little Man, thank you for correcting us, our Momma was busy.
DawgDad
July 9th, 2012
9:30 pm
The Braves are a thin, fragile team. It makes no sense to send prospects packing in hopes of a shot at a one-game playoff. Either go all-in to win the Division or sell the guys who aren’t going to help the Braves win down the road. Half-hearted efforts are doomed.
With Simmons healthy I figured they needed the normal bench and bullpen adjustments plus a starter and right-handed bat for the middle of the order. Add a starting shortstop to the list now. Chipper and Simmons are question marks; if the Braves go into September without a right-handed bat in the middle of the order or a Major League shortstop it will be 2011 all over again. Dan Uggla could rebound. Wren has an $8.5 million bet on that.
Some posters seem to have forgotten how bad Pastornicky played, and some don’t fully appreciate what Simmons contributes to the pitching. Simmons deserves a healthy share of the credit for the quality starts streak. Pastornicky is not a Major League shortstop, and should not even be in the discussion.
NickGranite
July 9th, 2012
9:48 pm
To win the world championship, you need an ace you can pencil in for two wins in a series. Do we have guys that can win two games? Perhaps but the odds are against you matched up against a Verlander or a Kershaw. Since Beachy is gone, our guys are good 3.5 era and above pitchers who throw a real nice game once in awhile. If you want to get to the series, go get Greinke.
Tom(Independent-Viet Vet USAF)
July 9th, 2012
10:00 pm
Thinking we need a solid IF player more than a pitcher for the next 6-8 weeks is my opinion? Jeff Keppinger of TB would be my choice. A solid .300 hitter who rarely strikes out and can play all the IF positions. Would be good for fan base, since he is former Parkview HS(Gwinnett Cty) and UGA star! Good choice if you ask me.
Hugh Jass
July 9th, 2012
10:01 pm
Problem is with the second wild card tons of teams are still in it. That means there will be more buyers than sellers at the trade deadline and that drives the price up.
eastbound and down
July 9th, 2012
10:05 pm
MB,
thanks for stating the obvious but i gotta ask how many titles did Texiera bring? or Sheffield? or Drew? this team doesn’t improve in the off season but is always ready to overpay in the middle of the season. the inmates are running the asylum. by the way, remind us again how the braves making the playoffs last year was a certainity.
arrowhead1959
July 9th, 2012
10:26 pm
This has to be the worst Braves bench in years; I agree, especially with the Simmons injury, Keppinger would be a good get. I was hoping they would get him last year when he was being moved.
Bill
July 9th, 2012
10:49 pm
If the Braves want Zack they better get busy because the Texas Ranger have been talking with them to get him per MLB.
With Simmons out the Braves are not the same team that beat Phillies. Phillies didn’t pitcher their star pitchers against Braves.
Braves bench sucks no other way to explain it. Wren needs to wake up and smell the roses and get rid on the crap.
Go Braves!
Bill
July 9th, 2012
10:53 pm
Kippinger would be a great pick-up if they would trade him.
Wilbo
July 9th, 2012
11:10 pm
Oh, my God, here we go again. One thing I despise about Atlanta sports is the gullible starcrossed bunch of 1/2 witted homer sportswriters, telling us at every drop of the hat, THIS could be the ONE itsy bitsy teeny weeny piece this team needs to win a _______.
Not ONE of anything– arm, bat, fielder, manager, GM, alien landing, goat roping– except maybe a permanent league wide scoreboard malfunction– is going to put these Atlanta Braves at the top of the NL East October 1st. Not one of anything is going to cause this up and down, off and on team to do anything in the playoffs (should they happen to get there) other than what they always do in the playoffs– bow out quickly & quietly– and all our nincompoop sportswriters need to shut up, and quit telling us, “This could be the one thing!!!”
Bradley, you need to be writing about the Little Theatre in Summerville, SC or something tame like that.
Delbert D.
July 9th, 2012
11:10 pm
I’m giving the go-ahead for the Greinke trade.
Ted M
July 9th, 2012
11:27 pm
The Braves need a back-up infielder. Jack Wilson has no business whatsoever of being on the Braves team. He can not hit at all… its Greg Norton all over again. Plus he’s not that good of a fielder or base runner. No offense to JW the person but he is totally worthless…why do the Braves loves these kinda players?
George Washington
July 9th, 2012
11:28 pm
chuck70idiot-chipper “no show” jones is playing 60% of the games so far this season. When he agrees to play for 60% of his salary, I’ll agree he’s earning his pay. Screw what he did 5 years ago. We want to win this season. People like you are the problem. We have to demand 100% effort and determination every game and every season. chipper jones is a leech to this team-sucking the life out because he “deserves” his salary for past performances. Where were all those key hits in the 14 division wins and only one world series when the Braves lost by 1-2 runs? He’s been payed well and does not deserve half of his salary this season. I guess the idiots that offered the contract is just as guilty. It’s tough being a Braves fan
Ham and eggs
July 10th, 2012
5:04 am
No one talks of suprise teams at break Pittsburgh Pirates are leadin central divison again at 48-37 at all star break …lets see if this team learns n do not fold it be good for Pittsburgh finally win a divison n get back in Playoffs since 92 Folks….I just wish Pirates owner and GM would change that gross Pirate figure n put back the Original logo face back from 1972….
Buzz2011
July 10th, 2012
5:55 am
Another arm could push them to the top!!!! What team is Bradley talking about?
It can’t be the Atlanta Braves.. They need about three more ” arms” and five more
hitters. They need a second sacker and another catcher.. Not sure what team
Bradley has been watchibg. The Braves finish fourth or fifth in their division.
Buzz2011
July 10th, 2012
6:00 am
@DawgDad ” Thin and fragile.”..Were you talking about The Dawgs or the Braves?
Not to worry , they both should come in at least fifth in their divisions
double
July 10th, 2012
8:03 am
Errors & Excuses-Sho enough,who would have thunk it?The Braves need another good starting pitcher.
Uncle Tom
July 10th, 2012
8:11 am
Mark,
WHY do the Braves allow their players to head-first slide? SImmons has now broken his finger, and Jason Heyward has taken almost 2 years to recover from jamming his shoulder on a head-first slide. Does the coaching staff have no control over such things?
braveshoo
July 10th, 2012
8:16 am
Priority #1: Resign Bourn now for 10m for 5 years. With him we have the best defensive outfield in the majors, and without him we have no CF or leadoff hitter next year. Priority #2: Get an ace. If Greinke is the man, and he can be signed now for 5 years at 15-20m per year, then trade one of your young pitchers to get him. You cant include Pastornicky because you need him to fill in at SS for Simmons who may not be back this year. If you cant do that, forget rentals, and let the young starters continue to get experience and get better. As a longtime Braves fan, I will be very disappointed if we sacrifice our future just to try to win this year. Priority #3: Improve our bench. I would cut Wilson and Henske, and fill them with some of our guys who are doing well at AAA. A low or mid level prospect for a good relief pitcher would be helpful. Priority #4: Sign longterm our core ballplayers that we must keep longterm- Bourn, Prado, Heyward, McCann, Freeman, Simmons, Hanson, Kimbrel.
Our bench sucks out LOUD
July 10th, 2012
8:51 am
We have Ross, end of story. Wilson, Diaz, Francisco, & now Hinske all stink. Our hitting is inconsistent & so is the pitching, the NL is wide open but the Braves dont have the horses to take it, might make the playoffs but then same old story, wont score enough to even compete, take the Chipper/Lowe money & go after Wright @ 3rd, let McCant walk after next year & resign Bourn, you listening FW???
chris
July 10th, 2012
8:57 am
The rockies are looking to move Marco Scutaro. He could be useful at SS until Simmons gets back and then he could be moved to the super utility role. I think he is hitting like .277 That would end Jack Wilson’s time with the Braves
Double Zero Eight
July 10th, 2012
8:58 am
Without the addition of a big bat, the Braves
are doomed for a very quick exit, in the event
they make the playoffs.
The current roster has a history of not being
able to hit top tier pitching, which is what they
would be facing in the playoffs. You can throw the
runs per game average for the regular season out
the window.
If the goal is to merely make the playoffs, then go
for the arm.
valdosta native
July 10th, 2012
9:10 am
“Ben Sheets allowed three runs — two earned — over 5 2/3 innings in his second start for Double-A Mississippi Monday.Sheets gave up seven hits, walked no one and struck out four, needing 89 pitches to cover the 5 2/3 frames. That’s two decent, but far from great, appearances for the veteran right-hander. The Braves will leave it up to him to decide whether he’ll now join the major league rotation on July 15 or make another start in the minors. We’re guessing he picks the former. Jul 9 – 10:00 PM”
Taylor Wooten
July 10th, 2012
9:16 am
Yep, another strong proven pitcher would be a huge help. But looks like the penny wise and pound fooling Execs rather take a cheap gamble on a surgically repaired, out of baseball pitcher from yesteryear. Always a good “plan”….huh.
Taylor Wooten
July 10th, 2012
9:17 am
Prove me wrong Braves/Liberty Execs.
Get Greinke. You got plenty of cash laying around in Liberty.
Mister Frisky
July 10th, 2012
9:36 am
Bench is worst in baseball and at the end of the day it will be the offense as it has been for two decades that will come up short.
Don
July 10th, 2012
9:40 am
Where are all of you – and I do mean ALL of you (almost all anyway) who were calling me an idiot and worse all winter when I kept saying that the Braves were going to have Pitching problems.
It was no mystery – when you had 4 of your 5 Starters from last season coming off injuries – And when Pitchers are injured, they seldom return to their former greatness (they may return to being fairly good – but seldom to their former greatness).
And when, in the last 7 years since Leo left – the huge number of Starting Pitchers who have ended up being injured.
Of course, this year we do have the great rookie Starter who is leading the league in ERA and also the great young reliever from last year. OOPS, NOW BOTH OF THEM HAVE ALREADY BEEN INJURED.
And it goes ON and ON and ON and ON and ON —————————————————————
Weyman C. Wannamaker Jr (A Great American)
July 10th, 2012
9:49 am
Mark Bradley: “Another arm could push them to the top”
That’s the thinking that brought us Len Baker!
Preston Hannatized
July 10th, 2012
10:39 am
The Braves are alive at the break – that is more than I expected given their floundering through most of May/June. I still think are too many questions.
Is JJ back to early 2011? Can the Braves replace Simmons for 30+ games? Not with Jack Wilson.
Greinke would be a big get, but how can anyone guess what Sheets will do?
McCann has to stay hot and not wear down with 70 more games at catcher. Chipper has to stay in the lineup 80% of the time. Uggla has to do his middling BA, 15-20 HR second half.
The biggest Q of all – will they play for Fredi? He was clueless in September and was probably a few games from being fired until they ran off this pre-ASG streak.
Back to first.....
July 10th, 2012
10:44 am
Dempster is the answer. He’s pitching better than Greinke and we already have the future. Plus he’s cheaper!!!
Go Braves!
MikeY
July 10th, 2012
10:56 am
Better move would be to trade for a reliever (Beimel or Lyon) and then move Medlen to the rotation.
DW
July 10th, 2012
10:57 am
When does Johnny Venters go to the AAA Gwinnett ??
Jim
July 10th, 2012
11:06 am
The Braves SHOULD not trade any young talent for an also ran or rent-a-player. Wren has been operating at the margin on mid-year trades for the past several seasons. NO MORE TEIXERIA OR DREW TRADES THAT BLEED OUR FUTURE! We need some bold moves or the future.
1) Pitch Minor, Delgado, Medlin, etc for the complete year. Let the young picters develop.
2) Trade McCann at the deadline for young talent. Bring up prospect Betancourt and let him play.
3) Trade Bourne now for young talent. Given Scott Boras is his agent, we will not be able to sign him.
4) If Chipper will go to a World Series contendng team, trade him as well.
5) Use the money from Chipper, Lowe, McCann, Bourne, etc to get a top notch third baseman for 2013.
dtanner
July 10th, 2012
11:15 am
braves payroll middle of the pack,braves record middle of the pack,they go hand in hand,another reason i no longer watch baseball