With money to spend, should the Hawks spend it on Dwight?
If he's so great, why did the Hawks come to own the Magic? (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
There’s a flip side to being a NBA team with cap space: You still must convince someone to take your money. By dumping Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams, the Hawks have outfitted themselves to be spenders, and the shock of those Monday deals hadn’t abated before everyone with an Internet connection had identified their targets: Dwight Howard and Chris Paul.
Allow me to inject a dollop of reality. There’s every chance that Paul, already the source of much disappointment in this precinct, will choose to stay with the Clippers. As for Howard: Anyone who claims to know what he’ll do is lying.
Which isn’t to say the Hawks should give up, not with the options they’ve created. (Danny Ferry, the general manager who created those options, wouldn’t seem to be easily deterred.) They could indeed take runs at Paul and Howard next summer, when the two are scheduled to become free agents. They could pursue a trade with Orlando now, offering Al Horford and Jeff Teague as bait. Or they could — and I’ll acknowledge this is unlikely — say of Howard, “Know what? We’d rather stick with Horfy.”
My contrarian take: I’m not sure Howard is quite as good as advertised, and he has proved in Orlando that he can wreck a franchise. Magic GM Otis Smith dynamited his roster in December 2010 in the wrong-headed attempt to make the Magic good enough to convince Howard to stick around, and the team hasn’t won a playoff series since. Smith got fired and so, at Howard’s reported request, did coach Stan Van Gundy.
In March, Howard agreed to waive an opt-out clause and remain with Orlando through the summer of 2013. Last week he asked to be traded to Brooklyn, implying that the Nets are the only team with which he’ll sign long-term. The Magic have endured this melodrama for more than two years, and there’s no end in sight.
Howard is the league’s best center by a mile, but that’s largely because there are only three or four real centers extant. He has been in the NBA since 2004 and hasn’t developed a staple offensive move. (Unless you count the dunk.) Nor can he make free throws. We live in an age where superstars are supposed to demand the ball at crunch time, but when last did you see Howard dominate a game at its end?
In his prime, Shaquille O’Neal was unstoppable. Howard’s effect can be blunted. Jason Collins, who’s not much of a player, has made a living getting in his way, and Howard doesn’t like it when people get in his way. He starts griping. He gets T’d up. He becomes a distraction to the team he’s supposed to be leading.
Howard gets much credit for Orlando’s run to the 2009 finals, but he had much help. The Magic prayed that opponents would double-team their big man, believing their 3-point shooters would carry the day. The way to beat Orlando — too bad Mike Woodson never learned this — is to make Howard score 40 points. Know how many times in his NBA career he has broken 40? Six. And the Magic lost two of those games. (One to the Hawks, as coached by Woodson’s successor Larry Drew.)
Such is Howard’s talent that the Hawks are duty-bound to try and hook him. He’s an Atlanta guy and he’s Josh Smith’s buddy and his presence would push the Hawks’ profile through the roof. I know all that. I get all that. I’m just not sure he’d make this a championship team, especially if Horford and Teague are sacrificed.
Were I the Hawks, I’d wait until next summer and see if he’s still available as a free agent. (If he’s gone to Brooklyn by then, so be it.) The only way I’d trade for Howard is if he agrees to re-up with the Hawks, an organization for which he has expressed little affection, and even then I’d be leery. As good as he is, Dwight Howard is not LeBron James.
But that’s just me, and my intent isn’t to rain on anyone’s Fourth of July. The Hawks have made two good moves and could be poised to make better ones. And honesty compels me to concede that Danny Ferry just might be a better GM than I am.
By Mark Bradley
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70 comments Add your comment
The Dwight shadow is Knicks’ only fear – ESPN | Danta Report
July 3rd, 2012
7:16 pm
[...] Atlanta Journal Constitution [...]
daiseymae
July 3rd, 2012
7:24 pm
If you want to know what type player Dwight Howard is just watch him play in person and see how he loafs up and down the court and moans and groans at every little thing that doesn’t go his way. As competent as Danny Ferry appears in his first week on the job, making a move to bring Howard to Atlanta would seem son un-danny-derry-ish.
tom
July 3rd, 2012
7:32 pm
I would say yes. However, no way he is coming to Atlanta.
Marcus
July 3rd, 2012
7:52 pm
agree with MB. Let Dwight go wherever ….. I don’t think it would be a fit because that would make our best 2 players (assuming either Josh or Al is no longer in ATL) as ones both best operating in the paint area. Too much congestion, not enough basketballs to go around.
Ward
July 3rd, 2012
8:02 pm
I wouldn’t give any money to Dwight, nor would I keep Josh Smith… If I were allowed to play GM, I would call Houston, Portland, Chicago, OKC, or Dallas and ask them what they would give me for Josh Smith.. With the money next summer my #1 target would be Bynum… Imagine Bynum & Hortford (back at the 4) together. That would be awesome… Plus, if we could somehow get Harden from OKC that would be pretty sweet too…Or maybe we could move Smith to Chicago for Deng & still go after Bynum & Paul next summer… Imagine this line-up:
C- Bynum
PF- Hortford
SF- Deng
SG- TBD
PG- Paul
That would be a great core to have…or Substitute Gay for Deng if you like. All I know is that I would love to see Hortford at his natural position and playing with a legit C.
Jgolds06
July 3rd, 2012
8:32 pm
Don’t think anyone with common sense would get rid of Horford and Teague for Howard. D12 is good… but has shown that he’s not currently capable of leading a team to a Championship. Horford and Teague are working towards that goal…those are the types of players that the Hawks need, not Howard.
Ted Striker
July 3rd, 2012
8:36 pm
1) Nay to Howard via trade or free agency…unless it keeps Smith in Atlanta.
2) Danny Ferry, keep thy phone line open. Should DH end up in Los Angeles, Gasol for Smith might taste better to Mitch Kupchak.
3) I wouldn’t be surprised to see a three team swap involving any player on the roster. My guess would be Horford would be last to go, however who knows.
Mark Bradley
July 3rd, 2012
8:38 pm
Oh, and here’s a little video chat with my pal Noah Coslov of CineSport. Subject? Hawks. (What else is there?)
kingdaddy
July 3rd, 2012
8:50 pm
No to Howard…
Don’t underestimate the value of Al or Jeff, two very good players with a lot of fans…
Josh gets hot and takes over a game, but hes spotty. Check trade but don’t give away…
Ivan, resign cause fans love him…
Find us a real center that’s not used up…
Find a way to get Jenkins in the game…
BW
July 3rd, 2012
9:10 pm
The Magic’s stupidity started the summer after the Finals appearance. In essence, they turned Turkoglu and Courtney Lee into Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson. Then turned Rashard Lewis into Gilbert Arenas, and then turned Vince Carter and Marcin Gortat into Jason Richardson and Turkoglu. Not too mention turning Brandon Bass into Big Baby. Ryan Anderson is the only value player. Plus, they are still paying Arenas, even though he’s off the cap. All of the other players basically turned either lower contracts into higher contracts or less years left into more years left. It’s classic Tragic.
Onto Howard. He is a physical beast. No doubting that. Of course, he’s not getting any younger. So there are probably a solid 3-4 more years of definite physical dominance left, barring injury. Maybe more, who knows. After that, it’s buyer beware since Howard has yet to develop any old man moves. To his credit, Howard has that awkward hook shot that is somewhat reliable. But even that comes off as more of a power move to me. I think Howard has improved, but not enough to see that he will be very special once his physical power declines. But he will still be fine. He just doesn’t have that finesse game that all older players need. And he never developed into a good passer. He is very deliberate with his passes and he has no inside passing game, the type of thing that will allow him to be good on inside cuts.
All of that said, Dwight Howard is a top 5 player, especially when he wants to be. If the Hawks don’t think they can get anyone worthwhile this year, it would not be terrible to take on Dwight as a 1 year rental and try to convince him to stay(using all of those assets they got from Brooklyn). I don’t fully know the rules of the CBA. Can the team that gets Dwight pay him more next year when he becomes a free agent? If so, it’s almost a no-brainer since the free agent market is so thin this year.
The Magic would be wise to trade Dwight for cap space and not the Brook Lopez/Kris Humphries pupu platter. Otherwise, I think it’s almost smarter for the Magic to let Dwight go for nothing. Donning my Magic GM cap, trade Dwight for expiring deals or draft picks. Any long term deals would have to be some really special players who are consensus team players and contributors and not good numbers on bad teams guys. And especially not consensus overpaid guys. This past spring, I think unloading the Turk or J-Rich deals with Dwight would have been a higher priority, but at this point, the relationship is so toxic, just getting rid of Dwight is the priority. And with that in mind, get rid of Dwight without taking on any long term money.
Mark, you are basically on point with this article, but I think the Magic would be wiser to ask the Hawks for their Brooklyn haul in return.
haha
July 3rd, 2012
9:46 pm
he will not accept thus you will be unable to spend on him.
the nets will be better than the hawks next year.
Josh Smith for 3
July 3rd, 2012
10:10 pm
Sure, Chris Paul and Dwight Howard are primary targets, but other options are available. I know the Warriors offered Monta Ellis for Josh Smith this past season and I’m pretty sure he’s a free agent next summer (I always thought Monta was a nasty offensive player). We will have plenty of money to spend, so it should be interesting to see who the Hawks will look at pursuing.
Z-RO the Crooked
July 3rd, 2012
10:15 pm
I’d love to have a Kaman,Horford, Smith frontline and maybe Mayo and Harris/Teague at the point but i think Devin Harris is outta here too
BravesFan79
July 4th, 2012
12:32 am
Not only is Howard overrated, his seeming dis of his howtown city is disgusting. Hed rather go to the Nets…where there not even the main team for the city, rather than the Capital of the South?? Add to that his dramatics, and the fact wed have to give up Horford (a All Star who seems very loyal and non-drama).. and i say NO Way!
BW
July 4th, 2012
12:40 am
Not to single anyone out, but this: Kaman,Horford, Smith frontline and maybe Mayo and Harris/Teague at the point is no better than a 2nd round NBA team.
This is why teams need to swing for the fences, but smartly. There are plenty of solid 3rd, 4th, 5th option type of players in the league, but to get over the top, you need at least one player who has at least 1 elite offensive skill. What are those skills? It’s tough to boil down, but there is Shooting(and really paired with the ability to get open. think Durant), Get to the Basket-ability(this is why PGs are so important. think Westbrook, but really think Wade, LBJ, Durant(again), Howard, Rondo, Kobe(in his prime)), Passing(PGs again, think Rondo(again!), CP3, D-Will, Shaq(yes, he counted in his day), LBJ, Rose), Get Fouled-ability(think Wade, Paul Pierce, Howard(when he’s on), Rose, Kobe), and then there is the intangibles(think cojones, think Paul Pierce, Wade(in the past), James(when he’s on), Westbrook, Kobe). Too many teams overpay for players who are good at some of these skills, but not elite. You obviously want these good players as well, but if you overpay for them, you can’t get the elite guys. In a way, it also doesn’t matter which position these guys play, but certain positions lend themselves to certain skills of course. Joe Johnson is overpaid because he’s good at multiple skills, but not elite. Josh Smith is supposed to be the elite player of the Hawks teams, but what’s his elite skill? Getting to the basket? It should be. Instead, he has cajones for shooting long jumpshots, which he is not good at. No one else on the hypothetical good roster has an elite skill.
This is why the Hawks should go after Dwight. He has up to 2 elite skills, plus you get the inside track on signing him. Where else does he want to go? It was only Brooklyn, and the Magic would be stupid to send him there, based on what Brooklyn has to offer. The Magic would be smart to send Dwight to a bad team that has lots of cheap young players to offer in return, plus draft picks. The Hawks have the cheap young players now(from BKN) to offer, and they have lots of good players to surround Dwight with. Get an elite player and surround him with really good players, and your team will be pretty good. Chemistry means something as well, but if your best ceiling after not getting the elite player is 2nd round, then the gamble on the elite player may be worth it, especially if the more realistic result without the elite player is 1st round.
BW
July 4th, 2012
12:48 am
To respond to you BravesFan, Yes, Howard has proven to be a cancer(at least to the Magic), but if he’s at worst, a one year rental, why not roll the dice? I guess the other option is to not do anything else this summer and hope that a trade deadline deal materializes with Chris Paul. So the question is what is more realistic? Convincing Dwight to sign or pulling off a deal for Paul during the season? I don’t know the answer, but it seems to me that if Dwight is already on the team, the odds of picking up another big name player increases dramatically. But I have no idea. Maybe Chris Paul wants to go to the Hawks, who knows besides him? Why not take Dwight now and try and sell him all year to stay with the promise that you’ll go after Paul in the offseason? I always thought the Magic should have offered everything but Dwight for Paul in the ‘10 offseason. There were rumors, and maybe that would have convinced Dwight to stay in Orlando, but it appeared that the Magic were too scared to trade away Dwight’s friends that offseason. But when you have the chance to pair two elite superstars, you should go all in, right?
superiorblogman
July 4th, 2012
6:27 am
I will pass on Josh and Howard. Ferry does not officially get it until he moves our best player Al Horford to his natural position. I would rather see Josh moved but not for Gasol and that contract or player
willy j.
July 4th, 2012
11:47 am
I saw these boys josh smith and dwight howard play ball with the atlanta celtics aau team up in suwannee a long time ago. They play ball very well together and seem to have a good relationship on and off the court. My bet is once they’re on the court together they’ll already have a good idea how to play together and dwight will not be a hog as people think. They’ll complement eachother well and be such a good duo
Review of Prima Donna Spring Summer Collection 2010 » I am Ready To Tell
July 6th, 2012
2:15 pm
[...] With money to spend, should the Hawks spend it on Dwight? Prima Donna – NO! Link; Report this comment. BC. July 3rd, 2012 5:02 pm. Dwight would be the biggest star in Atlanta since Vick. Not sure why he is so against Atlanta – especially since he is from here. Atlanta gets a bad rep as a sports town but this … Read more on Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog) [...]
LawDawg
July 9th, 2012
1:30 pm
First off, Howard is the world’s biggest six-year old. Second, when has he ever given even the slightest indication that he has any interest whatsoever in coming to the Hawks?