So does UGA always fall flat when much is expected? Well …
Sept. 27, 2008: Alabama sneers at Georgia's black jerseys. (AJC photo by Brant Sanderlin)
One guy I know — actually, I’m the guy — has picked Georgia to play Southern Cal for the BCS title. That prompted the usual round of carping from those who don’t care for the Bulldogs: “Georgia thinks it’s going to win the national championship every year, and it never does.”
Neither point is technically true — Georgia claims five national titles (two consensus, three iffy), and I don’t recall anyone seriously believing Ray Goff’s last team and Jim Donnan’s first team were bound for glory — but recent history does suggest that the Bulldogs do better when less is expected.
In the three Herschel Walker seasons (1980-82), UGA finished higher in the final Associated Press poll than in the preseason edition. The same was true for the first post-Herschel year, which yielded a giddy run to the Cotton Bowl. But Georgia has been ranked in the top 12 of the AP preseason poll six times since 1983, and only twice has it finished higher than it began.
Since early rankings have slotted the Bulldogs at No. 5 or thereabouts for the coming season, I thought it’d be fun — OK, maybe not fun — to analyze what happened the past half-dozen times much was anticipated. (A word regarding methodology: I used No.-12-in-the-preseason-AP-poll as my cutoff because I wanted to include the 1988 and 2003 seasons. I stopped at 12 because the Bulldogs have been ranked between 13th and 15th so often — eight times since 1983 — with no discernible trend. Four times they finished better than they started; four times they didn’t.)
1988: 12th in preseason, 15th in the final AP poll after going 9-3. Vince Dooley’s final team was picked by one guy — yep, same one — to go undefeated. Those Bulldogs didn’t make it through September unscathed. Early indicators: Troubling. A difficult opening victory against a Tennessee team that would finish 5-6; a 42-35 road win at Mississippi State that foretold issues on defense. First loss: At South Carolina on Sept. 24 as Todd Ellis picked Bill Lewis’ D to pieces. Subsequent losses: At Kentucky (yikes), at Auburn.
2000: 10th in preseason, 20th in the final poll after going 8-4. The team Donnan said he had “waited 55 years to coach” remains the last team he ever coached. He was fired by president Michael Adams after the regular season. Early indicator: Ominous. Linebacker Boss Bailey tore up his knee covering the season-opening kickoff against Georgia Southern. First loss: At South Carolina on Sept. 9. Quincy Carter threw five interceptions. Subsequent losses: Against Florida in Jacksonville, at Auburn in overtime, at home against Georgia Tech on the day George Godsey ran untouched through a host of NFL-caliber Bulldogs defenders.
2002: Ranked No. 8 in preseason, finished No. 3 after going 13-1. In Year 2 under Mark Richt, Georgia won the SEC for the first time in two decades. The division-clinching victory came at Auburn when Greene found Michael Johnson on fourth-and-14. Early indicators: All positive. A come-from-behind opening victory against Clemson; the Pollack snatch-and-grab victory at South Carolina; a last-gasp win at Alabama on Billy Bennett’s field goal. Blemish: A strangely uninspired loss to the Florida Gators of Ron Zook on Nov. 2.
2003: Ranked No. 11 in preseason, finished No. 7 after going 11-3. A second SEC East title was undercut by two losses to LSU, which in hindsight weren’t so awful — the Tigers wound up winning the BCS title. Early indicators: Again, all good. Georgia won 30-0 at Clemson in the opener and hammered South Carolina two weeks later. First loss: At LSU on Sept. 20. Tyson Browning took a screen pass 93 yards to tie matters inside the final two minutes, but a long kickoff return by Devery Henderson triggered the winning touchdown pass to Skyler Green. Subsequent losses: Another inexplicable defeat at the hands of the Zooker, a second loss to a by-then-clearly-superior LSU in the SEC title game.
2004: Ranked No. 3 in preseason; finished No. 7 after going 10-2. Still the biggest missed opportunity of Richt’s career. A senior-laden team didn’t even win its division. Early indicators: Mixed. Georgia rallied from 16 points down to win at South Carolina, but beat reigning champ LSU by 29 points in Athens. First loss: Against Tennessee at Sanford Stadium on Oct. 9, one week after the thrashing of LSU. That victory essentially gave the Vols the SEC East title. “We lost the wrong game,” Richt would say. Subsequent loss: At Auburn on a day when the Tigers — who would finish 13-0 — were dominant.
2008: Ranked No. 1 in preseason, finished No. 13 after going 10-3. Georgia was a hot item after the 2007 team finished No. 2 after a surprising 11-2 season. Early indicators: Awful. The offseason was marked by a flurry of Bulldogs arrests, and Georgia barely survived its first road test against middling South Carolina. First loss: Against Alabama on Sept. 27. The Tide led 31-0 at the half. It was Nick Saban’s first signature win as Bama’s coach. Subsequent losses: By 39 points to a Florida team that would take the BCS title, to Georgia Tech in Athens after leading by 16 at the half.
Conclusion: If you’re going to outperform high expectations, don’t lose early. Five of the past nine BCS champs have carried a loss, but only one of the five — Florida in 2008 — lost in September. Only twice in the six cases cited above did Georgia exit September undefeated. By way of contrast, Richt’s breakthrough season of 2002 featured an 8-0 start. All the more reason to underscore that Sept. 8 date in Columbia, Mo.
By Mark Bradley
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532 comments Add your comment
Donnan of a new era
June 22nd, 2012
11:33 am
Joey, do you always lie?
dean
June 22nd, 2012
11:33 am
As a lifelong fan, it’s agonizingly true. Same with all the professional Atlanta sports teams. Basically, we are cursed!
dean
June 22nd, 2012
11:35 am
Yet the Dogs are what 12-1 the last 13 years against Tech. Just get over it Techsters, you don’t compete with us and we don’t worry about you. We have enough big boy teams we play every year to concern ourselves over. Untill you beat us consistently keep your envy a secret.
Joey
June 22nd, 2012
11:38 am
Go Dawgs!
To Tell the Truth
June 22nd, 2012
11:40 am
Until GA wins a recent NC, there is not much to talk about.
Enough Said!!!
cdpridg
June 22nd, 2012
11:43 am
I dont blame any of the folks here for being envious…if I lost to the Dawgs as much as they do I would be in a tizzy myself.
ga gator
June 22nd, 2012
11:48 am
ACC fans I think West Virgina just scored again.
DawginLex
June 22nd, 2012
12:02 pm
The only way Auburn wins anything is by cheating
A known fact
DawginLex
June 22nd, 2012
12:14 pm
UGAG sucks=2010 BCS Champs
I recognize the same inane, hate filled posts
pb
June 22nd, 2012
12:22 pm
362 comments on this topic so far… Can tell what people care about in Atlanta area. UGA and GA Tech. But I admit I am one of them. Go UGA ! And Tech fans, keep trying. Maybe soon (in my lifetime) you will beat UGA.
John Holmes
June 22nd, 2012
12:42 pm
@Cdpridg:
Direct quote from CMR – (taken directly from Terrence Cody’s Wiki page)
“I haven’t seen anybody who’s a match for this guy one-on-one. Nobody playing on Saturdays, or Sundays probably.”
—Georgia Bulldogs head coach Mark Richt.[6]
And where is he now? He’s currently at 335, anchoring a nasty Baltimore Ravens defense, and mentoring his former teammate Courtney Upshaw.
And as for Stafford getting the last laugh, it sure didn’t happen in college. You must be referring to his contract, I guess. That’s great for him, but I doubt it made you any money. Nobody remembers players for the size of their contracts, they are remembered by how many rings they won.
For those at home keeping score, that’s T. Cody – 1, M. Stafford – 0.
In the NFL, expect that gap to increase. Stafford will NEVER win a Super Bowl in Detroit.
UGA? R U Kidding
June 22nd, 2012
12:50 pm
UGA Football…..32 years and counting.
UGA? R U Kidding
June 22nd, 2012
12:52 pm
Any fan who’s team has won a national championship in the last quarter century, please raise you hand. Georgia?………Georgia?
Cdpridg
June 22nd, 2012
12:52 pm
John Holmes…haha…spent alot of time typing for me to say take a look at the checking accounts. Spend another 30 mins of your day and come back to me with better matieral
Cdpridg
June 22nd, 2012
12:55 pm
Oh and John…you have every reason to be feeling inferior…CMR…3 of 4 against your team
TampaGator
June 22nd, 2012
1:01 pm
The conversation on these blogs just get worse every week. Lord have mercy. I can see why so in recent year and if that was gong to happen this year, I guess. But most of the posts have little or nothing to do with the story line. If you post a civil or intelligent post, very few if any respond. But let one person post something on a 2nd grade level of intelligence or with insults of another and 200 people respond likewise. But that is American these days, I again guess.
On a lighter note,
Georgia definitely has the talent…and the schedule….to win the SEC East this year. But the Dawgs are going to face big time battles with both South Carolina and a much improved FLorida team…..with Vandy maybe stepping in there with an upset along the way. Tennessee will be much better as well. Kentucky is Kentucky. This is….simply…..Georgia’s time. Richt and company better take advantage of it or bandwagon jumping will again occur….as it did at the beginning of last year. But Dawg fans….always…..jump back on the wagon train eventually. But pressure is no more on Richt than any other coach in the SEC East. Spurrier only wants to win championships and may give up soon if SC does not win one. Florida….well winning and winning championships is the expectation of one….Jeremy Foley. Muschamp is a hell of a recruiter and he has a great coaching staff. Florida may be ready to pounce this year. Go Gators.
POOPDAWG
June 22nd, 2012
1:03 pm
John Holmes will NEVER get off his momma’s couch!
TampaGator
June 22nd, 2012
1:06 pm
I don’t know what happened to the second sentence in the above blog. Words were deleted, I guess when I was making corrections…should have read:
“I can see why so many have stopping posting. The article was about Georgia not living up to expectations in recent years and if that was going to happen again this year………..(the the rest)
Sorry about that.
Brainiac(Dawg for life)(CMR fan for life)
June 22nd, 2012
1:27 pm
@ Bill:
ALL of Bammy’s titles came before indoor plumbing in Bammy and probably any in the future!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I dropped my fried twinkie
June 22nd, 2012
1:27 pm
Damn JOEY is a CRYBABY about Nothing.
Cdpridg
June 22nd, 2012
1:31 pm
Tampa gator…nice post and break down of the East…classy and fairly spot on for each team.
Joey
June 22nd, 2012
2:33 pm
I enjoy discussing and debating football on these blogs, but the last couple of days the insane attacks just got too personal.
From here on out, I’m just ignoring the doofuses, not taking the bait, and checking out soon as the insults start.
Tampa Gator, you are correct in your accessment of the ‘12 Bulldogs. I think we are gonna be lucky to get out of Mizzou with a win. They will have nothing to lose, and will want to win their very 1st SEC game badly. That, and the fact that Richt hasn’t outcoached another coach in a long time, plus how badly we have struggled away from home, makes it a perfect storm.
If we can pull it out, then we will have confidence in Columbia, and may be unbeaten when we roll into Jax.
I’m pretty sure UF got a big upgrade at OC, aren’t you? The D was already stout, so a bunch of my fellow UGA fans, who keep calling UF “down” are gonna get a shock down there.
Techster
June 22nd, 2012
2:34 pm
You’re right Mark. Dog U. always falls flat.
Arf, arf, arf, arf.
Joey
June 22nd, 2012
2:35 pm
Tampa Gator (1:01), you are right in so many ways . . .
1eyedJack
June 22nd, 2012
3:19 pm
Our record is as bad against Vandy and Kentucky the last 10 years as it is against Georgia Tech. Darn.
Pitbull
June 22nd, 2012
3:49 pm
Nothing is wrong from having high expectations for your team each year. That is called being a fan and pulling for your team. Better to be optimistic than a defeatest.
On the other hand I never have high expectations for the AJC sports section and that section usually lives up to my expectations because they are so low. Kinda like Tech.
The Commissioner
June 22nd, 2012
4:38 pm
Look, as a UGA fan and grad, let’s put things into perspective. Has Georgia been over-rated over the last decade or 2? Absolutely. Could a better coach come in and do a better job with the talent? Well, with one of the highest NFL transitions, absolutely. Maybe Georgia will go undefeated with an easy schedule this year. Maybe they won’t. If they do, should they make it to the title game? Probably not. Auburn didn’t in 2004 because they played patsies (didn’t they play the Citadel that year?). Georgia is playing quite a few patsies this year. And there will be times where other big SEC teams will play patsies in their future schedule. What is your point? Really? What is it? This is for all those that come on the blog with their put-downs. Everyone’s had their downtimes, even UGA. Hello Alabama Dubose and the following years and subsequent coaches up to the hiring of Nick Saban. Come on, Tech…you’re weighting basketball and baseball wins against UGA to football? Really? Neither school would even be on the map if they relied on the profits from basketball and baseball. Just let it go. You’ll never be able to argue to a point of common ground…but yet you come onto other teams’ blogs just to stir it up. Most of you bloggers IQ’s couldn’t even add up to the $25 monthly trailer payment in the trailer park I just passed rolling through Tuscaloosa. If Alabama were really that much better than Georgia, they wouldn’t recruit from Georgia…but yet they have to – because like Texas, Florida, and California, Georgia is a recruiting capital. They don’t recruit from their own backyard because most people from Alabama probably didn’t make it past kindergarten before they knocked up their sisters.
See, I can spew it too. Just let it go. Georgia actually has bigger problems than anyone on this blog. They have to find a coach and recruiter that can keep the talent in their own backyard…until then, it really doesn’t matter. Georgia will continue to be Georgia. Watch their games, read their blogs, but stay quiet if you have no “value” in your arguments.
TampaGator
June 22nd, 2012
5:03 pm
Joey…
I think the Dawgs win easily at Missouri, and that will spark craziness is Dawg nation. SC will be close and could go either way, as usual. Florida’s year completely depends on the effectiveness of Brissett and Driskell at QB. If either one or both become efficient or very good at the position, Florida becomes a very dangerous team for anyone they play. Gilleslee is going to be very good this year at RB if he stays healthy, and they have two very good backups in Brown and Johnson. We will see this summer what Matt Jones brings to the RB table. I think he will need a redshirt year to get stronger and work on technique. Pittman, a true freshman and early arrival, is the real deal at WR, and he is going to make Dunbar, Debose, Hammond, and Reed more dangerous at WR and TE. Taylor, the freshman TE/Slot Receiver……could add some dynamics to the offense as well. The OL is going to be very much improved….and a lot bigger and stronger under the guidance of the new S & C coach. The defense will be one of the best (and very deep and many positions) in the conference and the nation, I think. Florida also has one of the best placekickers in the nation in Caleb Sturgis, and he should help big time in close games. I do think Georgia and their fans better not come into JAX expecting to beat Florida this year.
LakeDawg
June 22nd, 2012
5:09 pm
I agree with TampaGator. There is no real football talk on this blog anymore. I used to disagree with TampaGator, but its gotten to the point where he is the only one I agree with. This should be UGA’s year. If its not, then the heat will be rightfully turned up on CMR. However, it will be no cake walk. Every team in the east will be better this season with the possible exception of SC, who will still be good.
The Truth is in the Coaching
June 22nd, 2012
5:12 pm
Someone needs to point out that Mark Richt has failed, and there is no other way to say it unless he does finally win a BCS championship. If he does not win a title with this team with this schedule the rankings will not matter, however the big wins do matter.
The Truth is in the Coaching
June 22nd, 2012
5:17 pm
Tampa Gator, If UF does not find a power running game then we will see much of the same as last year without all the off season, off the field drama and problems.
The UF defense will be good, but if they stay on the field like they did last year due to the offense faillings we will see much of the same of staying close in games until late when the plays that win games count and the UF defense is tired from all those minutes on the field.
TampaGator
June 22nd, 2012
5:20 pm
Pitbull…..
I disagree wholeheartedly about your opinion of the AJC. Great sports paper…with excellent writers….just my opinion. There is a reason I continue to read the AJC sports page even after moving south to the Tampa Bay area. Good stuff on the sports page…every day. I look forward to what they have to say every day…….read the Tampa papers and you will see why I think the AJC is so good.
TampaGator
June 22nd, 2012
5:30 pm
The Truth…..
I follow the Gators very closely. Big difference already is the significant difference in size and strength of the OL…..thanks to the Olympic training style of the new S & C coach. None of Florida’s current RBs have the running style of Demps and Rainey. They are all hard nosed, straight ahead runners. And the new motion offense of Peese is going to open up a lot of holes for the RBs this year…..and for the WRs and TEs as well. Gator Nation is excited about the improvement of the offense under Peese and the new OL coach…… and about what Muschamp is doing in Gainesville. He is a winner….and he is going to coach Florida back into the national championship picture….very soon.
DIT
June 22nd, 2012
6:04 pm
@TampaGator
I live in Tampa as well. You sir are 100% correct. I miss the AJC.
LakeDawg
June 22nd, 2012
6:12 pm
The AJC has a great sports page. Always has. Athens paper has really upgraded lately during CFB season as well.
sting_em
June 22nd, 2012
6:25 pm
Terry – Lets not forget that even though Colorado was should have lost the game to Missouri. Colorado was given a 5th down at the end of the game to score. First, they should not have been in the Orange Bowl that year. It should have been Tech and ND playing. Also, the Rocket had his punt return called back. Miami might have been the best team in the nation.
Argentina Blue
June 22nd, 2012
6:36 pm
@sting_em – What’s funny is that Colorado didn’t even score on that fifth down they were given. The ball never got in. Look at the replay…complete gift by the refs!
evil empire
June 22nd, 2012
7:15 pm
@ the commissioner
georgia has right at 10 million people…bama a little less than 5 million…louisiana has 4.5 million and puts almost as many players in the nfl as georgia…you don’t have better football players, you just have more football players…
GaTime
June 22nd, 2012
7:19 pm
auburn got their only fluke title by paying big money to cam newton—before cam and after cam they suck and will suck again this year. mark this down–ga beats auburn by 17+! This dog team is winning the SEC!!!
I dropped my fried twinkie
June 22nd, 2012
7:26 pm
Teach the dwags to tie their shoelaces and maybe they wouldn’t fall on the their faces.
Brainiac(Dawg for life)(CMR fan for life)
June 22nd, 2012
7:47 pm
@ Commissioner:
Damn son. I thought being the “Commissioner” you would know that Georgia has 150(more or less) D-1 recruits signing LOI each year.. Since the limits on signing is 25/year or 85 total I would like to see which coach and recruiter you would select to keep all 150 recruits at UGA.
You are just another Single Digit IQ spouting off about things you don’t think out or research before putting that mouth in gear.
Brainiac(Dawg for life)(CMR fan for life)
June 22nd, 2012
7:51 pm
@ Twinkie:
Only once in 11 years have the dawgs fallen on their faces when playing the N. Avenue Trade School!!!!!!!
Kno whut I’m sayin???
Brainiac(Dawg for life)(CMR fan for life)
June 22nd, 2012
8:04 pm
@ The truth in coaching:
You are KING of the Single Digit IQs. If you knew ANYTHING about organized football on ANY LEVEL you would know that the most stupid comment ever is when one says “If UGA(OR ANY TEAM) doesn’t win the NC the coach should be fired”. In the most likely event that you don;t know, there are approximately 120 D-1 teams and throughout history most coaches never won their Division/Conference much less a mythical NC and a number of times the BEST team was not voted the best team!!!!!!!!
You and your ilk couldn’t find your a$$ with both hands in your hip pockets!!!!!!!!!!!!!
evil empire
June 22nd, 2012
8:56 pm
hey brainiac…sthu punk…
Argentina Blue
June 22nd, 2012
9:01 pm
The team in the state most likely to win a championship this year is Georgia Southern. That game on November 17 should be pretty good.
Old Dog
June 22nd, 2012
9:02 pm
“Richt is a good coach and a really nice guy. Will that be enough for the UGA fans?????”
NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
maude
June 22nd, 2012
9:08 pm
But let’s not forget that CMR is a fine Christian man, unlike Nick Satan.
TampaGator
June 22nd, 2012
9:17 pm
Maude…
You must be a good Christian woman……..since you are so judgemental of another person you do not even know.
boy
June 22nd, 2012
11:44 pm
Mizzou..least of our worries! Grantham and Bobo will have us ready under our great coach!
bawbie
June 23rd, 2012
12:57 am
South Cackalacky plays for third straight championship in baseball. FIRE DAVE PERNO!!