So does UGA always fall flat when much is expected? Well …
Sept. 27, 2008: Alabama sneers at Georgia's black jerseys. (AJC photo by Brant Sanderlin)
One guy I know — actually, I’m the guy — has picked Georgia to play Southern Cal for the BCS title. That prompted the usual round of carping from those who don’t care for the Bulldogs: “Georgia thinks it’s going to win the national championship every year, and it never does.”
Neither point is technically true — Georgia claims five national titles (two consensus, three iffy), and I don’t recall anyone seriously believing Ray Goff’s last team and Jim Donnan’s first team were bound for glory — but recent history does suggest that the Bulldogs do better when less is expected.
In the three Herschel Walker seasons (1980-82), UGA finished higher in the final Associated Press poll than in the preseason edition. The same was true for the first post-Herschel year, which yielded a giddy run to the Cotton Bowl. But Georgia has been ranked in the top 12 of the AP preseason poll six times since 1983, and only twice has it finished higher than it began.
Since early rankings have slotted the Bulldogs at No. 5 or thereabouts for the coming season, I thought it’d be fun — OK, maybe not fun — to analyze what happened the past half-dozen times much was anticipated. (A word regarding methodology: I used No.-12-in-the-preseason-AP-poll as my cutoff because I wanted to include the 1988 and 2003 seasons. I stopped at 12 because the Bulldogs have been ranked between 13th and 15th so often — eight times since 1983 — with no discernible trend. Four times they finished better than they started; four times they didn’t.)
1988: 12th in preseason, 15th in the final AP poll after going 9-3. Vince Dooley’s final team was picked by one guy — yep, same one — to go undefeated. Those Bulldogs didn’t make it through September unscathed. Early indicators: Troubling. A difficult opening victory against a Tennessee team that would finish 5-6; a 42-35 road win at Mississippi State that foretold issues on defense. First loss: At South Carolina on Sept. 24 as Todd Ellis picked Bill Lewis’ D to pieces. Subsequent losses: At Kentucky (yikes), at Auburn.
2000: 10th in preseason, 20th in the final poll after going 8-4. The team Donnan said he had “waited 55 years to coach” remains the last team he ever coached. He was fired by president Michael Adams after the regular season. Early indicator: Ominous. Linebacker Boss Bailey tore up his knee covering the season-opening kickoff against Georgia Southern. First loss: At South Carolina on Sept. 9. Quincy Carter threw five interceptions. Subsequent losses: Against Florida in Jacksonville, at Auburn in overtime, at home against Georgia Tech on the day George Godsey ran untouched through a host of NFL-caliber Bulldogs defenders.
2002: Ranked No. 8 in preseason, finished No. 3 after going 13-1. In Year 2 under Mark Richt, Georgia won the SEC for the first time in two decades. The division-clinching victory came at Auburn when Greene found Michael Johnson on fourth-and-14. Early indicators: All positive. A come-from-behind opening victory against Clemson; the Pollack snatch-and-grab victory at South Carolina; a last-gasp win at Alabama on Billy Bennett’s field goal. Blemish: A strangely uninspired loss to the Florida Gators of Ron Zook on Nov. 2.
2003: Ranked No. 11 in preseason, finished No. 7 after going 11-3. A second SEC East title was undercut by two losses to LSU, which in hindsight weren’t so awful — the Tigers wound up winning the BCS title. Early indicators: Again, all good. Georgia won 30-0 at Clemson in the opener and hammered South Carolina two weeks later. First loss: At LSU on Sept. 20. Tyson Browning took a screen pass 93 yards to tie matters inside the final two minutes, but a long kickoff return by Devery Henderson triggered the winning touchdown pass to Skyler Green. Subsequent losses: Another inexplicable defeat at the hands of the Zooker, a second loss to a by-then-clearly-superior LSU in the SEC title game.
2004: Ranked No. 3 in preseason; finished No. 7 after going 10-2. Still the biggest missed opportunity of Richt’s career. A senior-laden team didn’t even win its division. Early indicators: Mixed. Georgia rallied from 16 points down to win at South Carolina, but beat reigning champ LSU by 29 points in Athens. First loss: Against Tennessee at Sanford Stadium on Oct. 9, one week after the thrashing of LSU. That victory essentially gave the Vols the SEC East title. “We lost the wrong game,” Richt would say. Subsequent loss: At Auburn on a day when the Tigers — who would finish 13-0 — were dominant.
2008: Ranked No. 1 in preseason, finished No. 13 after going 10-3. Georgia was a hot item after the 2007 team finished No. 2 after a surprising 11-2 season. Early indicators: Awful. The offseason was marked by a flurry of Bulldogs arrests, and Georgia barely survived its first road test against middling South Carolina. First loss: Against Alabama on Sept. 27. The Tide led 31-0 at the half. It was Nick Saban’s first signature win as Bama’s coach. Subsequent losses: By 39 points to a Florida team that would take the BCS title, to Georgia Tech in Athens after leading by 16 at the half.
Conclusion: If you’re going to outperform high expectations, don’t lose early. Five of the past nine BCS champs have carried a loss, but only one of the five — Florida in 2008 — lost in September. Only twice in the six cases cited above did Georgia exit September undefeated. By way of contrast, Richt’s breakthrough season of 2002 featured an 8-0 start. All the more reason to underscore that Sept. 8 date in Columbia, Mo.
By Mark Bradley
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532 comments Add your comment
Paul in NH
June 21st, 2012
6:22 pm
Looks like Terry had a bad case of amnesia with his wins in 1990
Colorado Buffaloes
Teams they lost to
Illinois (8-4, #24 AP final ranking
GT Yellow Jackets
Teams they lost to
.
Cdpridg
June 21st, 2012
6:22 pm
rowdy redneck….where is the bull of elephants cody now? Buffet bar??? Somehow I think Staff got the last laugh
Go down Sheba
June 21st, 2012
6:24 pm
Nice photo of dawgs’ hero.
http://bustedcoverage.com/2011/10/26/just-uga-qb-aaron-murray-wearing-fsu-shirt-holding-natty-light-photo/
Terry
June 21st, 2012
6:24 pm
I dropped my fried twinkie, I’ll take the team that played 7 top ranked teams, compared to Techs 3.
Cdpridg
June 21st, 2012
6:25 pm
Buzz…just because you put things in bold print does not make anyone believe or take you more serious…..we just laugh at you that much more. You are trying to hard because you are inferior.
Terry
June 21st, 2012
6:30 pm
Why do you think the AP didn’t rank Tech No.1 in 1990? WEAK, WEAK, WEAK, SCHEDULE! LOL
Rowdy_Red_Pachyderm
June 21st, 2012
6:35 pm
I think MB is sending CMR a coded message about what all that gimmick color jersey and helmet crap gets you in life.
Crushed & Smushed
Terry
June 21st, 2012
6:39 pm
Paul in NH, Mean to put teams they played, thats why, the Tech tie with North Carolina is on there, give me a break, I’m almost 51. I get enough of that crap from my children. LOL
Cdpridg
June 21st, 2012
6:40 pm
You are correct Terry….this day in time that would have maybe at best be the 8th ranked team in the nation. Possibly the softest schedule for a highly ranked team ever
@buzz
June 21st, 2012
6:44 pm
40-15- that’s Georgia vs . Tech since 1957. Just a friendly reminder. Something generations of yellow jackets can share, losing to Georgia .Its been 14 years since Tech finished 10th in a final poll. Techs only finished in top 10 twice since Dodds last season.Pretty pathetic.
Ole Big Dawg
June 21st, 2012
7:03 pm
Fellar in NH…no one has amnesia…Colorado is recognized as the 1990 Natl Champion by defeating the Notre Dame Fighting Irish 10-9 in the Orange Bowl by the AP. The poll that counted at the time. Tech was playing some crap team in the crappy Citrus….no amnesia in that bud
GFJacket
June 21st, 2012
7:30 pm
Ole Big Dog, Tech was the only undefeated team in the country, and had no controversial wins, unlike Colorado who need 5 downs to avoid 2 losses. Funny how UGA fans make fun when Tech’s QB can’t keep count of downs, but give Colorado a pass when they do the same.
As far as UGA, they should go undefeated this year. They have an experienced QB and a dominating defense. If UGA does not play for the title this year, it may never while Richt is coach.
Beast from the East
June 21st, 2012
7:44 pm
UGA has as good a chance as anyone to win it all this year, but that has been the case numerous times this past decade. I wouldn’t put any money on them to hoist a trophy unless they start giving out trophies for beating Tech. That seems to be the only safe bet since Richt has been in Athens.
Cdpridg
June 21st, 2012
7:47 pm
Richt has a winning record verses every SEC team in the conference with the exception of UF
See Rock City
June 21st, 2012
7:53 pm
So what exactly has that winning record given you Cdpridg? Beside the clap…
Fantasy Football (aka ACC Football)
June 21st, 2012
7:55 pm
Here are some of the many asterisks by GT 1990 co-championship.
1. Strength of schedule was comical. They never played anyone in contention.
2. Because Bowls dread having an ACC team, no top tier bowl issued an invitation to the Yellow Jackass. They played their bowl game against then 16th ranked Nebraska in the Citrus Bowl (now Cap One). GT’s championship was the biggest social promotion in the history of college football.
3. GT was given a share of the national title in a split decision. On the half they did win, the now extinct UPI gave them a 1 point edge over Colorado.
For those three reasons and others, GT’s so-called championship gets a huge asterisk.
See Rock City
June 21st, 2012
7:58 pm
My question is can the CMR & TG = MB trio out dual anyone in an equal chess game. I doubt it.
Cdpridg
June 21st, 2012
8:00 pm
Rock city….facts are facts whether you like them are not bub…..by the way…Chat town is a dump. If you are going to respond to me do so intelligently.
Terry
June 21st, 2012
8:06 pm
Big Crimson 75, In 1973, Alabama was voted the AP Ranked #1 Team at the end of the year, going 11-1, Notre Dame went 12-0, and beat Bama 24-23, in their last game, the AP Ranked Notre Dame #3, do you believe that Bama deserved to be ranked over Notre Dame.
Beast from the East
June 21st, 2012
8:14 pm
Fantasy,
UGA only beat 3 ranked teams in 1980 (#7, #14 and #20). Not exactly a daunting schedule, either.
Terry
June 21st, 2012
8:14 pm
Big Crimson 75, In 1978, Alabama was voted the AP Ranked #1 Team at the end of the year, going 11-1, USC went 12-1, and beat Bama 24-14, in their third game of the season, the AP Ranked USC #2, do you believe that Bama deserved to be ranked over USC.
Brainiac(Dawg for life)(CMR fan for life)
June 21st, 2012
8:16 pm
@ Terry(5:19pm post)
That was vvveerrryyyyy cruel!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Cruel but factual!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Terry = DGD
Paul in NH
June 21st, 2012
8:16 pm
Terry
I am older than you but the kids don’t give me grief about my computer skills. Connecting all the wires on the TV, tuner, DVD, CD player, surround sound, etc. is another story.
Paul in NH
June 21st, 2012
8:19 pm
Cdpridg
June 21st, 2012
7:47 pm
Richt has a winning record verses every SEC team in the conference with the exception of UF
—–
When did LSU leave the SEC?
Beast from the East
June 21st, 2012
8:20 pm
Paul,
I hate buying a new TV or device to hook up to it. I feel like a complete moron trying to get all of them working.
Brainiac(Dawg for life)(CMR fan for life)
June 21st, 2012
8:26 pm
@ See Rock City:
You always have questions but NO ANSWERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Paul in NH
June 21st, 2012
8:28 pm
Beast,
I don’t even bother trying to connect them up – my wife handles all that. Her stepfather was a GE guy and somehow working with electronics, wiring, etc rubbed off. All that happens when I try to connect things up is frustration and a blue screen.
Brainiac(Dawg for life)(CMR fan for life)
June 21st, 2012
8:28 pm
CMR has the BEST Winning percentage of ANY current SEC HC.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ole Big Dawg
June 21st, 2012
8:34 pm
Richt is also 1 of only 7 men in college football history to have won more than 102 or mor wins in his first 11 yrs. Standing at 106 as of right now. Rare air.
Beast from the East
June 21st, 2012
8:41 pm
Ah, yes…the dreaded blue screen!
SecFan
June 21st, 2012
8:43 pm
I see a little revisionism there Mark. You were as gushy over Donnan as you are with Richt. And four national titles? You must be counting the ones you awarded them in the annual preseason pandering column.
Beast from the East
June 21st, 2012
8:44 pm
Richt has done very well, but the vast majority of his success was in the first 5 years. I agree with Dlex that he has to get it done this year or UGA needs to move on.
See Rock City
June 21st, 2012
8:44 pm
Brainiac, what medal for winning % against low level competition did that ‘getcha?
01HAWK
June 21st, 2012
8:48 pm
Ole Big Dawg
June 21st, 2012
8:34 pm
Richt is also 1 of only 7 men in college football history to have won more than 102 or mor wins in his first 11 yrs. Standing at 106 as of right now. Rare air.
And …………………………..ZERO – BCS TITLES…………………Way to get your monies worth
01HAWK
June 21st, 2012
8:51 pm
Looking at that picture makes STAFFORD think about when he joined the pitiful Detroit Lions.
I dropped my fried twinkie
June 21st, 2012
8:51 pm
OK OK OK………Richt is the Greatest Coach in the SEC. UGa is the Best football team in the SEC. Now Show me the Trophies to back up those FACTS.
Delbert D.
June 21st, 2012
8:54 pm
@CMR has the BEST Winning percentage of ANY current SEC HC
Yet in that time, Saban has 3 mythical national championships as an SEC coach in fewer years. That guy doesn’t seem to have problems with over or under expectations.
Ole Big Dawg
June 21st, 2012
9:16 pm
Wow…we got some techie folk….bammer and some feller from NH. Richt has a dominating winning percentage over all of you. Exception for the feller in NH but I am sure if you played Richt you would lose to him also up there in NH.
RLDawg
June 21st, 2012
9:32 pm
alabama’s run is over—Georgia is the new big dog in the SEC—mark this down—GA is winning the SEC with a huge win over alabama in the SEC. Bite DAWG Bite!
14 Titles
June 21st, 2012
9:38 pm
Nick’s loaded the roster with 5 star studs for another title run in 2012–going for #15!!! This Bama D may be better than last year’s team! An easy SEC title with a blowout win over Ga or SC and a match with USC for the crystal–book it!
TigerinGA
June 21st, 2012
9:39 pm
It’s hilarious reading people complaining about a hard schedule in the past as reason for not doing better. LSU played top ranked out of conference this past season and won them all as well as the conference games. If you’re good, it doesn’t matter who you play. UGA is not good.
GFJacket
June 21st, 2012
9:40 pm
With Richt’s recruiting advantage in the state he should have a fistful of NC’s by now. Until Tech gets some “Turfgrass Management” degrees, UGA will have no in-state competition for the academically challenged blue chip athletes. Perhaps that is by design. Many complained earlier this year when Tech withdrew a scholarship from a prospective player when his test scores came in too low. Under the same circumstances, a UGA commit would have gone to Georgia Military Academy before eventually enrolling to play at UGA…
DawginLex
June 21st, 2012
9:44 pm
How does ugag sucks get to post here/
Cdpridg
June 21st, 2012
9:46 pm
14 titles….sounds like rhetoric out of the trailer park…muzzle it. Girlfriend jacket quit whining….you are just now realizing you cant compete. Jacket fans come around slowly….last 55…15-40 are the jackets
IggyStooge
June 21st, 2012
9:47 pm
That’s funny, Mark, on this site, I see one national championship for Georgia, not four: http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/champions_national.html. As they mention on their page, this is a list of FBS football champions since 1869 according to sources recognized by the NCAA. You should know better.
Big Crimson 75
June 21st, 2012
9:48 pm
Terry
Yes & Yes
DawgNole
June 21st, 2012
9:49 pm
Joey
June 21st, 2012
1:07 pm
The last time we were highly rated in the preseason (’08), we had a gruesome schedule – Bama (BCS Champ ‘09), LSU (BCS Champ ‘07), UF (BCS Champ ‘06, ‘08), not to mention AU, Arizona and Tech.
________________________
UGA hasn’t played Arizona since 1985. For not knowing much, you sure do a lot of yappin’ on here.
GFJacket
June 21st, 2012
9:53 pm
Cdpridg, the college football landscape changed when the CFA successfully sued the NCAA. Tech did not adjust its academics in order to maximize its athletics. Many pseudo degrees used by the football powers were created in the 1960’s as a means to expand access to college for the academically challenged.
When was the last time Tech had a better recruiting class than UGA? The same cannot be said for Auburn/Bama, Florida/FSU/Miami, Clems(paw)n/USCe….
Cdpridg
June 21st, 2012
9:56 pm
So tech has no one to blame but tech…figures
GFJacket
June 21st, 2012
9:57 pm
Correct….Tech does not consider its football team its reason for existence.