So does UGA always fall flat when much is expected? Well …
Sept. 27, 2008: Alabama sneers at Georgia's black jerseys. (AJC photo by Brant Sanderlin)
One guy I know — actually, I’m the guy — has picked Georgia to play Southern Cal for the BCS title. That prompted the usual round of carping from those who don’t care for the Bulldogs: “Georgia thinks it’s going to win the national championship every year, and it never does.”
Neither point is technically true — Georgia claims five national titles (two consensus, three iffy), and I don’t recall anyone seriously believing Ray Goff’s last team and Jim Donnan’s first team were bound for glory — but recent history does suggest that the Bulldogs do better when less is expected.
In the three Herschel Walker seasons (1980-82), UGA finished higher in the final Associated Press poll than in the preseason edition. The same was true for the first post-Herschel year, which yielded a giddy run to the Cotton Bowl. But Georgia has been ranked in the top 12 of the AP preseason poll six times since 1983, and only twice has it finished higher than it began.
Since early rankings have slotted the Bulldogs at No. 5 or thereabouts for the coming season, I thought it’d be fun — OK, maybe not fun — to analyze what happened the past half-dozen times much was anticipated. (A word regarding methodology: I used No.-12-in-the-preseason-AP-poll as my cutoff because I wanted to include the 1988 and 2003 seasons. I stopped at 12 because the Bulldogs have been ranked between 13th and 15th so often — eight times since 1983 — with no discernible trend. Four times they finished better than they started; four times they didn’t.)
1988: 12th in preseason, 15th in the final AP poll after going 9-3. Vince Dooley’s final team was picked by one guy — yep, same one — to go undefeated. Those Bulldogs didn’t make it through September unscathed. Early indicators: Troubling. A difficult opening victory against a Tennessee team that would finish 5-6; a 42-35 road win at Mississippi State that foretold issues on defense. First loss: At South Carolina on Sept. 24 as Todd Ellis picked Bill Lewis’ D to pieces. Subsequent losses: At Kentucky (yikes), at Auburn.
2000: 10th in preseason, 20th in the final poll after going 8-4. The team Donnan said he had “waited 55 years to coach” remains the last team he ever coached. He was fired by president Michael Adams after the regular season. Early indicator: Ominous. Linebacker Boss Bailey tore up his knee covering the season-opening kickoff against Georgia Southern. First loss: At South Carolina on Sept. 9. Quincy Carter threw five interceptions. Subsequent losses: Against Florida in Jacksonville, at Auburn in overtime, at home against Georgia Tech on the day George Godsey ran untouched through a host of NFL-caliber Bulldogs defenders.
2002: Ranked No. 8 in preseason, finished No. 3 after going 13-1. In Year 2 under Mark Richt, Georgia won the SEC for the first time in two decades. The division-clinching victory came at Auburn when Greene found Michael Johnson on fourth-and-14. Early indicators: All positive. A come-from-behind opening victory against Clemson; the Pollack snatch-and-grab victory at South Carolina; a last-gasp win at Alabama on Billy Bennett’s field goal. Blemish: A strangely uninspired loss to the Florida Gators of Ron Zook on Nov. 2.
2003: Ranked No. 11 in preseason, finished No. 7 after going 11-3. A second SEC East title was undercut by two losses to LSU, which in hindsight weren’t so awful — the Tigers wound up winning the BCS title. Early indicators: Again, all good. Georgia won 30-0 at Clemson in the opener and hammered South Carolina two weeks later. First loss: At LSU on Sept. 20. Tyson Browning took a screen pass 93 yards to tie matters inside the final two minutes, but a long kickoff return by Devery Henderson triggered the winning touchdown pass to Skyler Green. Subsequent losses: Another inexplicable defeat at the hands of the Zooker, a second loss to a by-then-clearly-superior LSU in the SEC title game.
2004: Ranked No. 3 in preseason; finished No. 7 after going 10-2. Still the biggest missed opportunity of Richt’s career. A senior-laden team didn’t even win its division. Early indicators: Mixed. Georgia rallied from 16 points down to win at South Carolina, but beat reigning champ LSU by 29 points in Athens. First loss: Against Tennessee at Sanford Stadium on Oct. 9, one week after the thrashing of LSU. That victory essentially gave the Vols the SEC East title. “We lost the wrong game,” Richt would say. Subsequent loss: At Auburn on a day when the Tigers — who would finish 13-0 — were dominant.
2008: Ranked No. 1 in preseason, finished No. 13 after going 10-3. Georgia was a hot item after the 2007 team finished No. 2 after a surprising 11-2 season. Early indicators: Awful. The offseason was marked by a flurry of Bulldogs arrests, and Georgia barely survived its first road test against middling South Carolina. First loss: Against Alabama on Sept. 27. The Tide led 31-0 at the half. It was Nick Saban’s first signature win as Bama’s coach. Subsequent losses: By 39 points to a Florida team that would take the BCS title, to Georgia Tech in Athens after leading by 16 at the half.
Conclusion: If you’re going to outperform high expectations, don’t lose early. Five of the past nine BCS champs have carried a loss, but only one of the five — Florida in 2008 — lost in September. Only twice in the six cases cited above did Georgia exit September undefeated. By way of contrast, Richt’s breakthrough season of 2002 featured an 8-0 start. All the more reason to underscore that Sept. 8 date in Columbia, Mo.
By Mark Bradley
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532 comments Add your comment
I dropped my fried twinkie
June 21st, 2012
3:09 pm
DIT the ACC…The Athens Clarke County PD!!!!!!!!!!!
lynnie
June 21st, 2012
3:10 pm
MB, I will never understand why you are SO Biased. You’re supposed to be a journalist,but you always show your ignorance. Why can’t you report on the other great schools in the Atlanta area or
even better the SEC? In case you didn’t know, the past 2 National Championships have been won
by Alabama and Auburn ( the SEC). I think you just get a kick out of aggravating people!
juvenal
June 21st, 2012
3:10 pm
so, Lex, the crystal football we got in “90 is tarnished compared to lsu in ‘04, the one USC deserved? what about the streak? any red sticks out there feel the same way? besides, this is now……
Big Crimson 75
June 21st, 2012
3:11 pm
WDE — it was a legit answer.
He started every game for the Ravens last year.
UGA = the chicago cubs of the SEC
June 21st, 2012
3:13 pm
nuff said. well…it hasn’t been quite that long since we won a championship. but our fans are one and the same……think they can win a championship every year.
SSIgator
June 21st, 2012
3:18 pm
UGA = the chicago cubs of the SEC -
That sounds about right. I heard that UGA is going to put up a sign at Sanford Stadium that says “Welcome to the Friendly Confines”
AltamahaDawg
June 21st, 2012
3:19 pm
Interesting filler for mid June. ( I would agree about 2004. That was FAR more disapointing than 2008). Would also be interesting to administer this same test to pretty much any program over time and see what the results are.
WDE
June 21st, 2012
3:20 pm
@Big Crimson 75 I hate to admit this but it was Farley I was thinking about that got hurt..
Joey
June 21st, 2012
3:26 pm
“Crystal football?” Dang, if Tech has some crystal, they bought it. UPI trophy is what you got in ‘90. It’s not tarnished – you just got half of the “National Title.”
That means, every time Tech celebrates some anniversary of it, Colorado is doing the same – on the same day.
Congrats again.
Big Crimson 75
June 21st, 2012
3:29 pm
WDE — no worries.
Fairley is a thug that needs to be taught a lesson!!
What He did to Murray a few yrs ago was absolute barbaric.
It’s funny how these 300lb clowns think they are bad a$$es when they cheap-shot a 200lb defenseless QB MULTIPLE TIMES!!!!
Fairley should have been kicked out of that Ga game & suspended for the rest of the Season!!
That is not the way to “play the game”.
bham dawg
June 21st, 2012
3:34 pm
With high expectations in 2012… What is Expected? Overachieving? Underachieving?
DawginLex
June 21st, 2012
3:38 pm
Back to the topic at hand Elvira
Remember what Bill King said?
Don’t read the comments
Practice what you preach
SSIGator Advice for the blog=Sandusky Boy Scout Leader=Updyke Auburn Groundskeeper
Carry on
DawginLex
June 21st, 2012
3:41 pm
altamaha
The 2004 loss to UT was the worst loss for Richt in his first 4 years. We had just destroyed LSU as revenge for 2003 and Greene just plain out sucked against UT and Shockley came in and almost won the game. That is the 1 game of that season where Richt should have benched Greene and let Shockley play a lot more.
Joey
June 21st, 2012
3:42 pm
bham dawg, low expectations make for better dinners on Saturdays night for this Bulldog. You should try it.
We should have won at least 2 of our losses last season, so while I’m hopeful of a special teams improvement, and of our QB taking much better care of the football, I’ll believe it when I see it.
But, as always, I won’t go to the fridge during a game, unless a commercial is on . . .
Go Dawgs!
AltamahaDawg
June 21st, 2012
3:42 pm
UPI……… is that an actual thing?
RP
June 21st, 2012
3:45 pm
How come nobody gets the 2008 season? 18 season ending injuries. Most of them were to players on the 2 deep. That is ridiculous. Given that, the losses to BAMA and UF are completely understandable and do not constitute “under performing.” There is never any excuse to lose to the nerds.
AltamahaDawg
June 21st, 2012
3:47 pm
Greene was not on his game that day, but it was a lot more of a team loss. Defense couldn’t stop thier frosh QB.
Then of cource, the phantom “block in the back”.
My schedule that year only allowed me to go to one of those particular 2 games. Guess which one.
Joey
June 21st, 2012
3:47 pm
I hope so AD. We have a UPI Trophy in our case from ‘80.
I think it was an actual thing until the BCS.
Maybe you should Google it?
Joey
June 21st, 2012
3:48 pm
Lex, I bet Richt would call the ‘02 loss to UF his worst.
It cost him the ball of wax . . .
Here we go again
June 21st, 2012
3:49 pm
If we lose more than 2 games with this schedule,the whole coaching staff sould be fired! For some reason i’m having a bad feeling about this season.9 and 3 or 8 and 4 could happen.
Jon
June 21st, 2012
3:50 pm
Interesting article. An even more interesting analysis was done a number of years ago which compared every BCS schools pre-season ranking with their final ranking over an extended period of time. Guess what? UGA was ranked in the top ten (I believe 7th) of schools that out-performed pre-season expectations. UGA was much more likely to perform better than expected rather than worse. If anyone has access to the CFB database I would like to see that analysis updated.
juvenal
June 21st, 2012
3:52 pm
take the coaches over the left wing liberal media a(ll) p(imps) any day-joey, what about lsu?
I dropped my fried twinkie
June 21st, 2012
3:55 pm
JOEY you are an IDIOT.
The Crystal Football has been the Coaches Poll Trophy for years. The BCS decided it was Too Beautiful not to use as the BCS Championship Trophy.
You really need to read, study, learn and pull your HEAD OUT before you post.
UGA = the chicago cubs of the SEC
You hi-jacked my JOKE punchline from the other day and made it your handle.
Come back with “Dabo Swinney is the Mike Bobo of Head Coaching.”
or
“Mark Richt is the Dale Earnhardt Jr of College Coaching.”
DIT
June 21st, 2012
3:55 pm
Joey – You just might be right about that 02 loss to UF!
Joey
June 21st, 2012
4:00 pm
Well, there’s something we can agree on, juvenal! See, Bulldogs and Jackets have some common ground!
I really don’t care what LSU won but I’m pretty sure they won the BCS Title and USC got the AP in ‘03.
UGAG sucks
June 21st, 2012
4:02 pm
“So does UGA always fall flat when much is expected?”
No one outside of Ga cares about UGA football. UGA football hasn’t been relevant since Carter was president.
UGAG sucks
June 21st, 2012
4:02 pm
Joey
Do you happen to live in Texas right now?
UGAG sucks
June 21st, 2012
4:03 pm
“Fairley is a thug that needs to be taught a lesson!!
What He did to Murray a few yrs ago was absolute barbaric.
Geez, more whining and crying about how Fairly beat up on the MUCH overrated UGAG qb.
UGAG sucks
June 21st, 2012
4:04 pm
“I heard that UGA is going to put up a sign at Sanford Stadium that says “Welcome to the Friendly Confines””
No, that sign would go above the Athens jail.
UGAG sucks
June 21st, 2012
4:04 pm
“We had just destroyed LSU as revenge for 2003″
And LSU returned the favor recently.
Face it dawg fans, UGA SUCKS at football.
1eyedJack
June 21st, 2012
4:05 pm
“UPI……… is that an actual thing?”
They lost all credibility somewhere around 1991 and soon folded.
UGAG sucks
June 21st, 2012
4:07 pm
” If you’re going to outperform high expectations, don’t lose early.”
Or play a cupcake schedule. Oops, looks like there’ll be more whining when UGA underperforms again.
bham dawg
June 21st, 2012
4:09 pm
@UGAG sucks… for a program that isn’t relevant you spend a lot of time on our blogs tellings us just how irrelevant we are. Little ironic don’t ya think?
UGAG sucks
June 21st, 2012
4:11 pm
“One guy I know — actually, I’m the guy — has picked Georgia to play Southern Cal for the BCS title. ”
How does that even make sense, Bradley? UGA plays a cupcake schedule and will likely lose to whomever they play from the West. USC is NOT that good of a team and Kiffen is a bigger loser of a coach than Richt is.
UGAG sucks
June 21st, 2012
4:12 pm
“for a program that isn’t relevant you spend a lot of time on our blogs tellings us just how irrelevant we are. Little ironic don’t ya think?”
A lot of time? I’ve been on here for maybe 20 mins. I guess 20 mins is a lot of time in dog years.
DawginLex
June 21st, 2012
4:13 pm
joey
It would not have mattered if we went undefeated in 2002 and beat florida. It would have still been OSU and Miami for the title in the cheaters r’ us bowl. That UT loss in 2004 set the tone for the rest of the season and we lost our mojo. Really reared its head at Auburn.
See Auburn 2004 for further proof
Joey
June 21st, 2012
4:13 pm
Since you questioned my knowledge and called me an idiot, twinkle pants . . .
The Crystal Football trophy is the BCS Trophy. The major polls before the BCS, the AP (sportswriters) and UPI (coaches), gave gold and silver trophies. I just looked at UGA’s 1980 trophies (yes, we were UNDISPUTED CHAMPS) and there is no crystal.
Educate YOURSELF jackass.
UGAG sucks
June 21st, 2012
4:13 pm
“Georgia claims four national titles”
LIE. UGA claims TWO, liar.
1942, 1980
Now, tell us when UGA won the other “two” championships, Bradley.
bham dawg
June 21st, 2012
4:15 pm
@UGAG sucks… and in that 20 mins you have posted too many times to count about how irrelevant uga is. little ironic don’t ya think?
AltamahaDawg
June 21st, 2012
4:15 pm
yes, thanks. I an familiar with it. It’s the precurser to the coaches poll. I’d be more interested in our 1980 AP selection, though. Was poking fun of tech, but thanks for backing me up there, buddy.
UGAG sucks
June 21st, 2012
4:20 pm
“Go back to banging your sister you inbred GED candidate”
Could you be any dumber, ma’am?
I dropped my fried twinkie
June 21st, 2012
4:20 pm
JOEY you are an IDIOT.
Once the BSC started there was NO OTHER POLL that mattered. Saying USC won the UPI poll in 03 is WRONG. If the UPI/ Coaches Poll then the BCS would not be around. There was NO OTHER POLL that could award a national championship because that is WHY the BSC was created the Coaches(UPI) and AP had to vote for the BCS Champ Game Winner..
Joey go look at the 1900 GT national Championship Trophy. You MORON it is THE Waterford Crystal Football now used by the BCS.
The More You type the more ignorant you prove yourself to be.
juvenal
June 21st, 2012
4:22 pm
not like you, lex…..
Joey
June 21st, 2012
4:23 pm
We were ranked #5, ahead of OSU that Saturday, and everybody lost in front of us but #1 Miami, but yeah, we probably woulda got shafted anyway, DIL.
The Little Ten was still gettin a lot of love back then . . .
I dropped my fried twinkie
June 21st, 2012
4:23 pm
JOEY since you are to SLOW to do the research here is the link you fool.
http://www.afca.com/article/article.php?id=Trophy
Wet Willie...keep on smiling
June 21st, 2012
4:24 pm
UGA doesn’t have coaching,players, nor the discipline to win the glass ball. Please continue your yearly BS on what the leg humpers will do for it makes for great conversation. Many of us would take you serious if only you would beat someone that has beaten somebody. That would be a great starting point for a team at your level. Sorry to have interrupted.
AltamahaDawg
June 21st, 2012
4:27 pm
The BCS didnt END other polls, twinkie. It’s still possible to be “voted #1″ in a variety of polls.
UGAG sucks
June 21st, 2012
4:27 pm
“Educate YOURSELF jackass.”
Gotta love the incredibly stupid folks like Joey.
I dropped my fried twinkie
June 21st, 2012
4:28 pm
Hey JOEY the Turf Management Rocket Scientist can you READ and comprehend?
Since 1986, the winner of the UPI or USA Today Coaches’ Poll has received the Coaches’ Trophy.
The trophy — valued at $30,000 — features a football made of Waterford® Crystal and an ebony base. The winning institution retains the AFCA Trophy for permanent display on campus.
As part of the AFCA’s involvement with the Bowl Championship Series, the winner of the national championship game each year is presented with the AFCA Trophy in an on-field ceremony following the game.
Joey
June 21st, 2012
4:29 pm
At least I can read moron . . .
******************************
“I really don’t care what LSU won but I’m pretty sure they won the BCS Title and USC got the AP in ‘03.”
I didn’t say USC won a UPI poll.
Damn . . .