So does UGA always fall flat when much is expected? Well …
Sept. 27, 2008: Alabama sneers at Georgia's black jerseys. (AJC photo by Brant Sanderlin)
One guy I know — actually, I’m the guy — has picked Georgia to play Southern Cal for the BCS title. That prompted the usual round of carping from those who don’t care for the Bulldogs: “Georgia thinks it’s going to win the national championship every year, and it never does.”
Neither point is technically true — Georgia claims five national titles (two consensus, three iffy), and I don’t recall anyone seriously believing Ray Goff’s last team and Jim Donnan’s first team were bound for glory — but recent history does suggest that the Bulldogs do better when less is expected.
In the three Herschel Walker seasons (1980-82), UGA finished higher in the final Associated Press poll than in the preseason edition. The same was true for the first post-Herschel year, which yielded a giddy run to the Cotton Bowl. But Georgia has been ranked in the top 12 of the AP preseason poll six times since 1983, and only twice has it finished higher than it began.
Since early rankings have slotted the Bulldogs at No. 5 or thereabouts for the coming season, I thought it’d be fun — OK, maybe not fun — to analyze what happened the past half-dozen times much was anticipated. (A word regarding methodology: I used No.-12-in-the-preseason-AP-poll as my cutoff because I wanted to include the 1988 and 2003 seasons. I stopped at 12 because the Bulldogs have been ranked between 13th and 15th so often — eight times since 1983 — with no discernible trend. Four times they finished better than they started; four times they didn’t.)
1988: 12th in preseason, 15th in the final AP poll after going 9-3. Vince Dooley’s final team was picked by one guy — yep, same one — to go undefeated. Those Bulldogs didn’t make it through September unscathed. Early indicators: Troubling. A difficult opening victory against a Tennessee team that would finish 5-6; a 42-35 road win at Mississippi State that foretold issues on defense. First loss: At South Carolina on Sept. 24 as Todd Ellis picked Bill Lewis’ D to pieces. Subsequent losses: At Kentucky (yikes), at Auburn.
2000: 10th in preseason, 20th in the final poll after going 8-4. The team Donnan said he had “waited 55 years to coach” remains the last team he ever coached. He was fired by president Michael Adams after the regular season. Early indicator: Ominous. Linebacker Boss Bailey tore up his knee covering the season-opening kickoff against Georgia Southern. First loss: At South Carolina on Sept. 9. Quincy Carter threw five interceptions. Subsequent losses: Against Florida in Jacksonville, at Auburn in overtime, at home against Georgia Tech on the day George Godsey ran untouched through a host of NFL-caliber Bulldogs defenders.
2002: Ranked No. 8 in preseason, finished No. 3 after going 13-1. In Year 2 under Mark Richt, Georgia won the SEC for the first time in two decades. The division-clinching victory came at Auburn when Greene found Michael Johnson on fourth-and-14. Early indicators: All positive. A come-from-behind opening victory against Clemson; the Pollack snatch-and-grab victory at South Carolina; a last-gasp win at Alabama on Billy Bennett’s field goal. Blemish: A strangely uninspired loss to the Florida Gators of Ron Zook on Nov. 2.
2003: Ranked No. 11 in preseason, finished No. 7 after going 11-3. A second SEC East title was undercut by two losses to LSU, which in hindsight weren’t so awful — the Tigers wound up winning the BCS title. Early indicators: Again, all good. Georgia won 30-0 at Clemson in the opener and hammered South Carolina two weeks later. First loss: At LSU on Sept. 20. Tyson Browning took a screen pass 93 yards to tie matters inside the final two minutes, but a long kickoff return by Devery Henderson triggered the winning touchdown pass to Skyler Green. Subsequent losses: Another inexplicable defeat at the hands of the Zooker, a second loss to a by-then-clearly-superior LSU in the SEC title game.
2004: Ranked No. 3 in preseason; finished No. 7 after going 10-2. Still the biggest missed opportunity of Richt’s career. A senior-laden team didn’t even win its division. Early indicators: Mixed. Georgia rallied from 16 points down to win at South Carolina, but beat reigning champ LSU by 29 points in Athens. First loss: Against Tennessee at Sanford Stadium on Oct. 9, one week after the thrashing of LSU. That victory essentially gave the Vols the SEC East title. “We lost the wrong game,” Richt would say. Subsequent loss: At Auburn on a day when the Tigers — who would finish 13-0 — were dominant.
2008: Ranked No. 1 in preseason, finished No. 13 after going 10-3. Georgia was a hot item after the 2007 team finished No. 2 after a surprising 11-2 season. Early indicators: Awful. The offseason was marked by a flurry of Bulldogs arrests, and Georgia barely survived its first road test against middling South Carolina. First loss: Against Alabama on Sept. 27. The Tide led 31-0 at the half. It was Nick Saban’s first signature win as Bama’s coach. Subsequent losses: By 39 points to a Florida team that would take the BCS title, to Georgia Tech in Athens after leading by 16 at the half.
Conclusion: If you’re going to outperform high expectations, don’t lose early. Five of the past nine BCS champs have carried a loss, but only one of the five — Florida in 2008 — lost in September. Only twice in the six cases cited above did Georgia exit September undefeated. By way of contrast, Richt’s breakthrough season of 2002 featured an 8-0 start. All the more reason to underscore that Sept. 8 date in Columbia, Mo.
By Mark Bradley
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532 comments Add your comment
Wes Mantooth
June 21st, 2012
2:02 pm
In recent times, UGA is one of the most over hyped team in the country. Same thing every year. Ridiculous expectations driven by a fanatical fan base. They are always decent, but second tier in the SEC. Their good years are generally when the big boys are down. Florida and Tennessee won’t be down forever, so they better get it done soon. Same goes for Spurrier and crew.
GTBob
June 21st, 2012
2:03 pm
Test.
Eddie
June 21st, 2012
2:05 pm
Herschel played from 1990 – 1982? Interesting, Mark. Learn something new with each column!
Blue Moon
June 21st, 2012
2:06 pm
I think a little perspective is needed here. I mean, we’re talking about the differences, basically, between 5 and 15th in the nation. All it takes is 1 loss to skew the standings and justify a made up argument.
I mean, it does stand to reason the higher you are ranked in preseason the greater chance there is of finishing below that preseason rank. Just common sense…
Tech Rules
June 21st, 2012
2:06 pm
In Athens the answer would be all of them. And so will the next one.
Joey
June 21st, 2012
2:08 pm
Congrats on that half of a title, LaBlah, won . . . .(chuckling) . . .in the . . . .(laughing hard) . . . the . . . .
Tangerine Bowl
vs a 3-loss team that was tied for 2nd in a 8-team conference.
Congrats on that “title” techie . . . .
WDE
June 21st, 2012
2:08 pm
@I dropped my fried twinkie we have beaten that Bug butt 10 out of the last 11 times we have met ……why did I bring that up ? I love reminding Bug village of it because at the end of the day it gives you folks the yips…enjoy!
DawginLex
June 21st, 2012
2:12 pm
the 1990 Tech team tied an 0-10-1 UNC team
Miami would have DEESTROYED the 1990 Tech team if they had played just like Georgia, Miami, VT destroy Tech every year now.
Most of the 1990 team returned in 1991 and an 8-3 Georgia team whipped them with Ray Goff as coach.
Gary
June 21st, 2012
2:15 pm
DawgLex
I love the easy schedule montra. We still have to play Florida, USC, Auburn, Tennessee, and Now Missouri…. None of these teams are going to role over. They will all be better this year than they were last year. If we get through that we will still meet the really good LSU or Alabama everyone claims we are hiding from.We still have the exact same weeknesses. It is not coaching. It is recruting. It is lack of depth. Georgia is not stacked with talent. The defense is great against decent teams but will get tired quick against good ones. The offsense and the Special teams love to cause more harm than good. Nothing great is going to come of this year. So all the haters can call for Richts head. I am not one of them. Good season 2 losses and a bowl win. Means that 80 percent of the time I am pretty pleased with my team. Or I could pretend we have the talent Bama and LSU have and be miserable and want my coach fired all the time. Personally, their are a ton of other schools that would kill for what we have and I don’t want to throw it away. Firing Coaches does not seem to work out for most schools. Look at it this way. Texas has more money than any school and god. There coach appears to be slipping. They should be able to buy any coach they want, including Saban. I don’t know why they are sitting on that pile of cash and loosing, but I am guessing someone there knows something I don’t. I am going to assume the folks in Athens might know a thing or two as well. Sometimes what you have now is better than what you can get next.
Dirty Dawg
June 21st, 2012
2:15 pm
Not to be a excuse-making, whiner, but those ‘08 Bama and Gator games were riddled with bad calls, non-calls and fluke plays to the point that in my mind they never counted…see how easy that was?
Paul in NH
June 21st, 2012
2:16 pm
Mark,
Interesting read. Now, if you really wanted to write a column about teams that have high preseason rankings and underachieve you could have written about ND (last 25 years), FSU (last 12 years) or England (last 46 years, and counting).
Paul in NH
June 21st, 2012
2:20 pm
“Most of the 1990 team returned in 1991 and an 8-3 Georgia team whipped them with Ray Goff as coach”
It’s a good job that the 1990 team’s record was based on the scores in 1990 then! Who knew that 18-15 was a whipping?
I dropped my fried twinkie
June 21st, 2012
2:23 pm
WDE………..you better PRY the dWags don’t face BAMA this year. It seems many times(or All Modern Times) UGa can claim a National Championship they don’t play BAMA.
1927 Won 20-6
1942 Won 21-10
1946 Won 14-0
modern era
1968 No BAMA
1980 No BAMA
Paul in NH
June 21st, 2012
2:23 pm
“the 1990 Tech team tied an 0-10-1 UNC team”
That has to be news to the members of the UNC-CH team that went 6-4-1 in 1990.
Saban Never Sleeps
June 21st, 2012
2:23 pm
You have got to be kidding me!!! What a bunch of LEG HUMPER hype. Isnt Bobo still the Offensive Coordinator and I emphasize “Offensive.” Did each of you Leg Humpers not find the humilation and embarassment from last year’s SECCG enough to last you a lifetime?
I dropped my fried twinkie
June 21st, 2012
2:26 pm
DiLex……………..now you are just being DUMB. 0-10-1 UNC team?
Can you please provide a link where you found that to be the truth?
9/1/1990 UNC vs. Miami W 34-0
9/8/1990 UNC @ South Carolina L 5-27
9/15/1990 UNC vs. Connecticut W 48-21
9/22/1990 UNC vs. Kentucky W 16-13
9/29/1990 UNC vs. N.C. State L 9-12
10/6/1990 UNC @ Wake Forest W 31-24
10/20/1990 UNC vs. Georgia Tech T 13-13
10/27/1990 UNC vs. Maryland W 34-10
11/3/1990 UNC @ Clemson L 3-20
11/10/1990 UNC vs. Virginia L 10-24
11/17/1990 UNC @ Duke W 24-22
Record: 6-4-1
Big Crimson 75
June 21st, 2012
2:26 pm
The dwags have no shot against Bama.
Zero chance.
Over by half-time.
It would be a mauling.
We will destroy you puppies.
We will send your players home to mommy crying for dope $$.
We will beat y’all so bad, Richt will lose his religion.
Bama 56 Dwags -14
Big Crimson 75
June 21st, 2012
2:27 pm
How bout beating Clemson lite(SC) first!!!
I dropped my fried twinkie
June 21st, 2012
2:28 pm
DILex WRONG AGAIN. Now you are really being STUPID and I like you.
Miami would Destroy TECH like this?
9/1/1990 UNC vs. Miami W 34-0
Joey
June 21st, 2012
2:29 pm
“So all the haters can call for Richts head. I am not one of them. Good season 2 losses and a bowl win.”
*********************************************
Damn Gary. Just damn.
You need to consider something.
Since “2 losses and a bowl win” is your happiness threshhold, when is the last time you were “pretty pleased?”
You must have a short memory, cause you haven’t had one of your dream seasons since ‘07.
I’m not a “hater” but I sure think we can do better with the talent that goes through our program. This year will tell the tale. And for the record, I hope Coach Richt makes every one of his performance incentives.
DawginLex
June 21st, 2012
2:30 pm
1989 UNC team was 1-10 1990 team had 6 wins
Point remains the same
no true national champion team ties that UNC team
Miami would have destroyed them
I dropped my fried twinkie
June 21st, 2012
2:31 pm
VIP destroyed TECH in 1990?
Georgia Tech ended the season 11-0-1, with the lone tie coming against North Carolina.[3] The team won the Coaches’ Poll by a vote of 847-846 over Colorado.[4]
[edit]Schedule
Date Opponent# Rank# Site Result Attendance
September 8 at North Carolina State* Bobby Dodd Stadium • Atlanta, GA W 21-13 40,021
September 22 Chattanooga* Bobby Dodd Stadium • Atlanta, GA W 44-9 32,911
September 29 #25 South Carolina* Bobby Dodd Stadium • Atlanta, GA W 27-6 46,011
October 6 at Maryland #23 Byrd Stadium • College Park, MD W 31-3 31,941
October 13 #15 Clemson #18 Bobby Dodd Stadium • Atlanta, GA W 21-19 46,066
October 20 at North Carolina #11 Kenan Memorial Stadium • Chapel Hill, NC T 13-13 48,000
October 27 Duke #16 Bobby Dodd Stadium • Atlanta, GA W 48-31 44,061
November 3 at #1 Virginia #16 Scott Stadium • Charlottesville, VA (Toe meets leather) W 41-38 49,700
November 10 Virginia Tech* #7 Bobby Dodd Stadium • Atlanta, GA W 6-3 43,011
November 17 at Wake Forest #4 Groves Stadium • Winston-Salem, NC W 42-7 13,493
December 1 at Georgia* #2 Sanford Stadium • Athens, GA W 40-23 82,122
January 1 #19 Nebraska* #2 Citrus Bowl • Orlando, FL (Citrus Bowl) W 45-21 72,328
*Non-conference game. Homecoming. #Rankings from AP Poll.
DawginLex
June 21st, 2012
2:32 pm
i’m talking the real miami, the one in florida
UNC beat the one in Ohio 34-0 in 1990
Mel from SW ATL
June 21st, 2012
2:32 pm
Georgia is a bunch of LOSERS man! Since 1980, they’ve CHOKED and the only people that believe otherwise are the same crackas around here that drink dat koolaid. LOSERS, man, LOSERS! 32 years and STILL counting.
I dropped my fried twinkie
June 21st, 2012
2:33 pm
DiLex you Stupidity and hate are getting to you right now. have a makers mark and Ice and get back to being RATIONAL not just Pie in the Sky wishful thinking.
DawginLex
June 21st, 2012
2:34 pm
Y’all know the 1990 GT team was not worthy of being a national champion
come on
Watch the Miami, Florida team from that year.
They would have destroyed Tech
DawginLex
June 21st, 2012
2:35 pm
I’ll just have a diet Coke and continue to know that I am right
I dropped my fried twinkie
June 21st, 2012
2:37 pm
DiLex you are right that was MIAMI of OH. Sorry, but you are still just GUESSING just like the football polls guess for the first 5 weeks of the season for the most part.
CO Dawg
June 21st, 2012
2:37 pm
Interesting observation about the Dawgs. It would help to see how other Top 12 teams performed during the same time frame. You could keep it simple and use the SEC or better yet, examine all teams during that same time frame. At times, I think people are wearing blinders. Michigan went 50 years or so between NC titles until they won in 97. Texas went 35. LSU went 50ish. Same for Auburn.
I’m fine critiquing the Dawgs. It’s fair and my ‘gut’ says it’s accurate. However, without more stats, this conversation is sort of futile.
Curious to hear your thoughts, MB.
Thanks – Matt, Denver
Nesbitt for Heisman
June 21st, 2012
2:38 pm
Dang MB, some bad memories ye stirred here. I had almost forgotten Quincy’s 5 pick game against the roosters. Thanks for ruining my lunch
Bremen Dawg
June 21st, 2012
2:38 pm
I feel dumber after reading Mark’s articles. Just sayin
DIT
June 21st, 2012
2:40 pm
Why are we so worried about what happened in 1990? Big deal, and the same for 1980!
If anyone’s team has not won a NC since 2002 there is no room to go bragging on anything.
This makes both of our fan base look pretty clueless when we are posting about records that happened last millennium.
I look for good things from both tech and UGA this year. Probably not a NC, but to be in our Conference championships. Let’s get the season started!
juvenal
June 21st, 2012
2:41 pm
aw, Lex, I thought you had more class than to sass the pas’-2014 will mark the first real FNC-we were the only unbeaten team, that got byu a mnc against a 6-5 UMich…….seems like you barely beat a team in ‘80 that was tied by some 1-9-1 team…….
WDE
June 21st, 2012
2:44 pm
@I dropped my fried twinkie I won’t Pray or Pry in an effort to avoid Bama…I want Bama we have everything to gain and nothing to lose playing them…and newsflash if we can manhandle LSU for a half we can beat anyone. Your a crack smoking moron if you don’t think there was a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth at half time on the LSU side…and we didn’t have a running game. Bring Bama on I’d rather lose to them than have them ASSUME they can beat us and run that mouth like they have I want to play the best and that don’t include Bug U. Bama,LSU bring them on..
I dropped my fried twinkie
June 21st, 2012
2:46 pm
WDE………… “if we can manhandle LSU for a half we can beat anyone”
LMFAO
You can beat ANYONE but Boise St, So Carolina, LSU or Michigan St.!!!!!!!!!
Big Crimson 75
June 21st, 2012
2:46 pm
Lex — how bout some props for Coach Grant.
#2 in the SEC on that APR thing!!
Big Crimson 75
June 21st, 2012
2:48 pm
Twink — Only the dwags would reward a tool like No-shon with a “C” on his jersey!!
WDE
June 21st, 2012
2:48 pm
@I dropped my fried twinkie seems like your the one afraid little Bug..hiding behind the big boys to get your licks in…sad.
Nesbitt for Heisman
June 21st, 2012
2:49 pm
“Your a crack smoking moron”
Man, you just have to love this blog!
Mike
June 21st, 2012
2:50 pm
Yeah its hard to say, Mark. I dont expect a repeat of 2008 because of Grantham’s D. The issues in 2008 began and ended with the defense. They had to outscore most of their opponents.
If UGA doesnt meat expectations, it will be a 2004 scenario where they dont fall too far short. There are a couple of SEC teams poised to be the Auburn team, and South Carolina or Missouri could prove to be the unexpected game lost. They need to play those two games like they are National Championship games.
WDE
June 21st, 2012
2:50 pm
@Big Crimson 75 is Cody still in the NFL or has he “retired” ?
DIT
June 21st, 2012
2:51 pm
@ Mike
You can add Florida and Auburn to that list as well!
WDE
June 21st, 2012
2:53 pm
@Nesbitt for Heisman there are a lot of great ones here example : WDE………..you better PRY the dWags don’t face BAMA
Big Crimson 75
June 21st, 2012
2:54 pm
WDE — He starts for the best defense in the NFL.
SSIgator
June 21st, 2012
3:01 pm
I dropped my fried twinkie -
Don’t argue with Nancy. She knows everything. As you can tell by her comments, she even knows the outcome of mythical games that were never played between two teams over twenty years ago. No Sir, you don’t want to tangle with that clairvoyant fountain of knowledge.
I dropped my fried twinkie
June 21st, 2012
3:01 pm
The dawgs can’t beat the ACC so how they going to win the SEC?
DIT
June 21st, 2012
3:03 pm
“The dawgs can’t beat the ACC so how they going to win the SEC?”
??????????????????????????????????????????
Joey
June 21st, 2012
3:06 pm
Big Crimson, I give Grant some props. In fact, I think AG would have come to Athens, but Bama wisely made a quick move. Turns out, our AD was evaluating skirts (or underneath) instead of BB coaches.
I think Fox is Grant’s equal on the court, but it’s becoming clear Grant is a better recruiter – thus, the better record and better students.
WDE
June 21st, 2012
3:06 pm
@Big Crimson 75 it was a legit question I really lost track of where he was, last I heard he was injured I thought.
WDE
June 21st, 2012
3:08 pm
@SSIgator –GTBob that you??