So does UGA always fall flat when much is expected? Well …
Sept. 27, 2008: Alabama sneers at Georgia's black jerseys. (AJC photo by Brant Sanderlin)
One guy I know — actually, I’m the guy — has picked Georgia to play Southern Cal for the BCS title. That prompted the usual round of carping from those who don’t care for the Bulldogs: “Georgia thinks it’s going to win the national championship every year, and it never does.”
Neither point is technically true — Georgia claims five national titles (two consensus, three iffy), and I don’t recall anyone seriously believing Ray Goff’s last team and Jim Donnan’s first team were bound for glory — but recent history does suggest that the Bulldogs do better when less is expected.
In the three Herschel Walker seasons (1980-82), UGA finished higher in the final Associated Press poll than in the preseason edition. The same was true for the first post-Herschel year, which yielded a giddy run to the Cotton Bowl. But Georgia has been ranked in the top 12 of the AP preseason poll six times since 1983, and only twice has it finished higher than it began.
Since early rankings have slotted the Bulldogs at No. 5 or thereabouts for the coming season, I thought it’d be fun — OK, maybe not fun — to analyze what happened the past half-dozen times much was anticipated. (A word regarding methodology: I used No.-12-in-the-preseason-AP-poll as my cutoff because I wanted to include the 1988 and 2003 seasons. I stopped at 12 because the Bulldogs have been ranked between 13th and 15th so often — eight times since 1983 — with no discernible trend. Four times they finished better than they started; four times they didn’t.)
1988: 12th in preseason, 15th in the final AP poll after going 9-3. Vince Dooley’s final team was picked by one guy — yep, same one — to go undefeated. Those Bulldogs didn’t make it through September unscathed. Early indicators: Troubling. A difficult opening victory against a Tennessee team that would finish 5-6; a 42-35 road win at Mississippi State that foretold issues on defense. First loss: At South Carolina on Sept. 24 as Todd Ellis picked Bill Lewis’ D to pieces. Subsequent losses: At Kentucky (yikes), at Auburn.
2000: 10th in preseason, 20th in the final poll after going 8-4. The team Donnan said he had “waited 55 years to coach” remains the last team he ever coached. He was fired by president Michael Adams after the regular season. Early indicator: Ominous. Linebacker Boss Bailey tore up his knee covering the season-opening kickoff against Georgia Southern. First loss: At South Carolina on Sept. 9. Quincy Carter threw five interceptions. Subsequent losses: Against Florida in Jacksonville, at Auburn in overtime, at home against Georgia Tech on the day George Godsey ran untouched through a host of NFL-caliber Bulldogs defenders.
2002: Ranked No. 8 in preseason, finished No. 3 after going 13-1. In Year 2 under Mark Richt, Georgia won the SEC for the first time in two decades. The division-clinching victory came at Auburn when Greene found Michael Johnson on fourth-and-14. Early indicators: All positive. A come-from-behind opening victory against Clemson; the Pollack snatch-and-grab victory at South Carolina; a last-gasp win at Alabama on Billy Bennett’s field goal. Blemish: A strangely uninspired loss to the Florida Gators of Ron Zook on Nov. 2.
2003: Ranked No. 11 in preseason, finished No. 7 after going 11-3. A second SEC East title was undercut by two losses to LSU, which in hindsight weren’t so awful — the Tigers wound up winning the BCS title. Early indicators: Again, all good. Georgia won 30-0 at Clemson in the opener and hammered South Carolina two weeks later. First loss: At LSU on Sept. 20. Tyson Browning took a screen pass 93 yards to tie matters inside the final two minutes, but a long kickoff return by Devery Henderson triggered the winning touchdown pass to Skyler Green. Subsequent losses: Another inexplicable defeat at the hands of the Zooker, a second loss to a by-then-clearly-superior LSU in the SEC title game.
2004: Ranked No. 3 in preseason; finished No. 7 after going 10-2. Still the biggest missed opportunity of Richt’s career. A senior-laden team didn’t even win its division. Early indicators: Mixed. Georgia rallied from 16 points down to win at South Carolina, but beat reigning champ LSU by 29 points in Athens. First loss: Against Tennessee at Sanford Stadium on Oct. 9, one week after the thrashing of LSU. That victory essentially gave the Vols the SEC East title. “We lost the wrong game,” Richt would say. Subsequent loss: At Auburn on a day when the Tigers — who would finish 13-0 — were dominant.
2008: Ranked No. 1 in preseason, finished No. 13 after going 10-3. Georgia was a hot item after the 2007 team finished No. 2 after a surprising 11-2 season. Early indicators: Awful. The offseason was marked by a flurry of Bulldogs arrests, and Georgia barely survived its first road test against middling South Carolina. First loss: Against Alabama on Sept. 27. The Tide led 31-0 at the half. It was Nick Saban’s first signature win as Bama’s coach. Subsequent losses: By 39 points to a Florida team that would take the BCS title, to Georgia Tech in Athens after leading by 16 at the half.
Conclusion: If you’re going to outperform high expectations, don’t lose early. Five of the past nine BCS champs have carried a loss, but only one of the five — Florida in 2008 — lost in September. Only twice in the six cases cited above did Georgia exit September undefeated. By way of contrast, Richt’s breakthrough season of 2002 featured an 8-0 start. All the more reason to underscore that Sept. 8 date in Columbia, Mo.
By Mark Bradley
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532 comments Add your comment
JSS
June 23rd, 2012
9:34 pm
It’s been 5 years, pull out them gimmick black jerseys or Grambling uniforms and dive off the high platform! Sic’em whimpering chihuahuas!!!…
billyho55
June 23rd, 2012
10:22 pm
I HAVE NEVER QUITE UNDERSTOOD WHY SO MANY PEOPLE TALK ABOUT MY CONFERENCE THIS, MY CONFERENCE THAT. WHO CARES! ALL OF MY ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON “MY TEAM” & I COULD CARE LESS ABOUT HOW THE OTHERS ARE DOING. YOUR ONLY IN THAT PARTICULAR CONFERENCE BC OF VARIOUS FACTORS. IF FSU WINS THE TITLE I’M SURE NOT GONNA PRAISE THE ACC BC AS FAR AS I’M CONCERNED THEIR THE ENEMY. YOU TALK SO MUCH TRASH ABOUT HOW MUCH BETTER YOUR CONFERENCE IS BUT TRUTH BE TOLD IT WASN’T YOUR TEAM THAT WON, SO WHO CARES. PLEASE, PEOPLE, COME UP WITH A BETTER APPROACH TO THESE DEBATES, BC IT REALLY DOES GET OLD!
Bama Mike
June 23rd, 2012
10:52 pm
Dear New UGA President:
Please, keep mark richt as uga coach for a long time.
Sincerely,
Alabama, LSU, Florida, South Carolina Presidents
KakNiqueTree
June 24th, 2012
12:03 am
2002- Ugans were a caught Terrence Edwards TD from being undefeated….
Thomas Brown
June 24th, 2012
3:07 am
_______________________________
vs teams achieving Top 10 after 2005 :
_______________________________
Auburn :
Lost to # 2 Georgia 2007
Lost to # 10 Coaches’ # 13 AP Georgia 2008
Won over # 3 LSU 2006
Won over # 8 LSU 2010
Lost to # 2 LSU 2011
Lost to # 5 Arkansas 2011
Lost to # 6 Alabama 2008
Lost to # 1 Alabama 2009
Won over # 10 Alabama 2010
Lost to # 1 Alabama 2011
Won over # 9 South Carolina 2011
Won over # 3 Oregon 2010
Won over # 1 Florida 2006
6-7 Auburn after 2005 vs teams achieving top 10
_______________________________________
LSU :
Lost to # 1 Florida 2006
Lost to # 1 Florida 2008
Lost to # 3 Florida 2009
Lost to # 6 Alabama 2008
Lost to # 1 Alabama 2009
Won over # 10 Alabama 2010
Lost to # 1 Alabama 2011
Won over # 1 Alabama 2011
Won over # 5 Arkansas 2011
Lost to # 9 Auburn 2006
Lost to # 1 Auburn 2010
Lost to # 10 Coaches’ # 13 AP Georgia 2008
Lost to # 9 Penn State 2009
Won over # 9 Virginia Tech 2009
Won over # 4 Oregon 2011
Won over # 5 Ohio State 2007
6-10 LSU after 2005 vs teams achieving top 10
_____________________________________
Alabama :
Lost to # 3 LSU 2006
Lost to # 1 LSU 2007
Lost to # 8 LSU 2010
Lost to # 2 LSU 2011
Won over # 2 LSU 2011
Lost to # 9 Auburn 2006
Lost to # 1 Auburn 2010
Lost to # 1 Florida 2006
Lost to # 1 Florida 2008
Won over # 3 Florida 2009
Won over # 5 Arkansas 2011
Lost to # 2 Georgia 2007
Won over # 10 Coaches’ # 13 AP Georgia 2008
Lost to # 2 Utah 2008
Won over # 10 Virginia Tech 2009
Won over # 2 Texas 2009
6-10 Alabama after 2005 vs teams achieving top 10
_________________________________________
Florida :
Win over # 3 LSU 2006
Lost to # 1 LSU 2007
Lost to # 8 LSU 2010
Lost to # 2 LSU 2011
Win over # 8 Alabama 2008
Lost to # 1 Alabama 2009
Lost to # 10 Alabama 2010
Lost to # 1 Alabama 2011
Lost to # 9 Auburn 2006
Lost to # 9 South Carolina 2011
Lost to # 2 Georgia 2007
Win over # 10 Coaches’ # 13 AP Georgia 2008
Win over # 5 Oklahoma 2008
Win over # 2 Ohio State 2006
5-9 Florida after 2005 vs teams achieving top 10
______________________________________
Even Arkansas 4 wins after 2005 vs teams achieving top 10
Arkansas beat # 9 Auburn 2006
Arkansas beat # 1 LSU 2007
Arkansas beat # 8 LSU 2010
Arkansas beat # 9 South Carolina 2011
Even Arkansas 4 wins after 2005 vs teams achieving top 10
_______________________________________________
Even South Carolina 2 wins after 2005 vs teams achieving top 10
South Carolina beat # 2 Georgia 2007
South Carolina beat # 10 Alabama 2010
Even South Carolina 2 wins after 2005 vs teams achieving top 10
____________________________________________________
vols :
vols match our 1 Win after 2005 vs teams achieving top 10
Won over # 2 Georgia 2007
Kentucky :
KY match our 1 Win after 2005 vs teams achieving top 10
Won over # 1 LSU 2007
Ole Miss :
Ole Miss match our 1 Win after 2005 vs teams achieving top 10
Won over # 1 Florida 2008
Georgia :
Won over # 9 Auburn 2006
Lost to # 1 Auburn 2010
Lost to # 1 Florida 2006
Lost to # 1 Florida 2008
Lost to # 3 Florida 2009
Lost to # 9 South Carolina 2011
Lost to # 2 LSU 2011
Lost to # 8 Boise State 2011
Lost to # 6 Alabama 2008
1-8 Georgia after 2005 vs teams achieving top 10
____________________________________________________________________________
Only Vandie and Missy State have fewer wins vs teams who actually made AP Poll Top 10 after 2005 than Mark Richt.
____________________________________________________________________
When you find yourself saying Mark Richt – Best Coach in The SEC, just stop yourself
____________________________________________________________________
danny
June 24th, 2012
7:49 am
I bleed red and black. A Bulldog through and through. So it really pains me to say this. When this new playoff format starts, UGA’s national championship hopes go to ZERO with Richt as the coach. I firmly believe that he is incapable of winning the East, the SEC Championship, and then beat 2 of the top 4 ranked teams. He has shown me nothing to believe otherwise. I hope and pray that he proves me wrong but i don’t think he will
» SEC: South Carolina-Arizona start CWS final series tonight John Clay's Sidelines
June 24th, 2012
8:43 am
[...] Does Georgia always fall flat under expectations? asks Mark Bradley of AJC. [...]
Mike Bobo 17 INT
June 24th, 2012
8:45 am
The answer: Yes they do.
Mike Bobo 17 INT
June 24th, 2012
8:45 am
Cut the chatter, tee it up and get it on. The scores will tell.
Dog P Muse
June 24th, 2012
9:49 am
with this new playoff format, Ga will be a regular in the final 4 championship series–Rich’t recruited all these dream team superstars that will start winning big, beginning this year—take it to the bank!
Finish The Drill
June 24th, 2012
10:06 am
Grantham needs to learn how to coach in the second half,
Bobo needs to learn how to burn the clock.
Finish The Drill
June 24th, 2012
10:12 am
Aaron Murray needs to cut “way back ” on his interceptions.
Finish The Drill
June 24th, 2012
10:17 am
Like to see #1 Crowell play any where close to Marcus Lattimore.
Finish The Drill
June 24th, 2012
10:23 am
I. Crowell needs to get that yards per carry up from 4.6 to 5.0 ……….
Finish The Drill
June 24th, 2012
10:27 am
Truly study the game of football, the trends and what’s goin’ on.
rewrite history
June 24th, 2012
10:29 am
Ugag can claim whatever they want to claim. 1 single, solitary (1980) championship is all they have!
Reality bites the hairy dog!
Finish The Drill
June 24th, 2012
10:32 am
Missouri was 6-1 at home last season.
Old Blind Dawg
June 24th, 2012
11:28 am
Mark I didn’t read all the comments so this may have been covered.It would be interesting to look over the same time period (several decades) and compare the pre-season top ten with the final top ten. I suspect UGA did as well as most.
Easy Breezey
June 24th, 2012
12:17 pm
Go Jackets!
Looking at those records, I dont understand why u guys ride CMR so hard. Dude issa winner. And all the recent success the Tide has had in games AND recruiting has to have a flip side attached, no way sny team can be that good that long without cheating(see So. Cal). Lighten up rednecks.
The Professor
June 24th, 2012
1:15 pm
f(x) = x+ 2y + z²
Solve for f(x), given:
X = the probability of Mark Richt winning a national championship at UGA
Y = the number of meaningful degrees awarded to UGA football players
Z = the number of UGA students who are not drunk most of the time
Congratulations if you came up with the correct answer, which is ZERO
The Professor
June 24th, 2012
1:19 pm
Sorry, the first line should be:
f(x,y,z) = x+ 2y + z²
1eyedJack
June 24th, 2012
1:20 pm
The Professor, if you’re so smart, how come you could never come up with a viable plan to escape that island? You were never smart enough to factor Gilligan into the equation.
Dan
June 24th, 2012
1:57 pm
That inexplicable loss to UF in ‘02 is plenty explicable. That was the first sign that Richt may be a great man and a good recruiter but is an overrated field coach. Greene was in his rhythm and UGA was up. Then Richt’s stubbornness took over. He had to get D.J. his snaps, which led to. UF pick six and Greene never again found that rhythm. Blame the loss and the blown BCS opportunity on CMR.
Tucker
June 24th, 2012
1:59 pm
It’s great that the Bulldog Nation has been able to celebrate its last national championship for 30 years! Most other schools would have long forgotten or made a serious run at another one.
Brainiac(Dawg for life)(CMR fan for life)
June 24th, 2012
4:25 pm
@ JSS:
Wasn’t Louisiana Monroe wearing the dreaded black jerseys when they stopped by Tuskiloser to kick Saban and Bammy a$$ all over Bammy stadium????
Brainiac(Dawg for life)(CMR fan for life)
June 24th, 2012
4:28 pm
@ Thomas brown:
CMR may not be the best coach in the SEC but he has the BEST winning percentage in the SEC and that doesn’t include Saban’s stent in the NFL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wreckmaniac
June 24th, 2012
5:25 pm
Mark: UGA fans have made it very clear over the years. They do not care about winning a nat champ. They will take it or leave it. What they care about is:
1. Beating Tech. And they have done a great job of that.
2. Getting top recuits. This must be done. It dosen’t matter what the recruits accomplish. It just matters that they wear the UGA uni.
Wreckmaniac
June 24th, 2012
5:26 pm
For the reasons stated above in my previous post, CMR is the perfect coach for UGA because he delivers on both of the top 2 performance criteria.
Hairy Dawg
June 24th, 2012
5:40 pm
It sickends me that people still trying to hot sit Coach Richt. We won East and 10 games and goning do better this year. Coach Richt is good cause he gets talent recruited to Dawgs. The talent wants to play for him as Cheistian but Adams has been working againts Coach Richt by choking recruiting by creating pointy head rules that deny recruits to come to Dawgs. We knows if we gets them in they can get grades but Adams want let us sign them. Instead Saban come to GA and steals our players that Adams keeps out. Without the Adams pointy head rules we could stockpile more talents. That why true fans got to support Coach Richt against Adams.
Go Dawgs!
Delbert D.
June 24th, 2012
5:48 pm
Is Mark Bradley still with the AJC? Maybe he’s been cut back to 2 says a weeks.
Delbert D.
June 24th, 2012
5:50 pm
Or, 2 days a week. Stupid keyboard.
Buckshot
June 24th, 2012
6:27 pm
Here’s how it goes down.
1) For Richt to meet expectations means finish in the top 5 in 2012.
2) To finish in the top 5 Richt must beat ranked teams
3) Aaron Murray/Mark Richt are 0-9 vs ranked teams that finish in the top 25 since 2009
4) Richt will not be able to finish in the top 5 until his team leader Aaron Murray leaves the campus
Buckshot
June 24th, 2012
6:55 pm
Last time Richt finished nationally in the top 5 was 2007. Richt finished #1 in the SEC against ranked teams in turnover margin that year.
Since then, to margin against ranked teams has hovered between 7th and last in the SEC.
Mark Richt led teams don’t force enough turnovers on defense, and commit too many on offense, especially against ranked teams.
That’s why he’ll never finish in the top 5 nationally again.
Mark Richt can’t fix the turnover margin against ranked teams. Been 7th to last in SEC last 4 years IN A ROW.
Gamecock in Georgia
June 24th, 2012
7:54 pm
I am convinced now.
Brianiac is delusional.
Golden Tornado
June 24th, 2012
8:02 pm
Mark, I read you all the time, and I believe just about everything you say. But you need to avoid perpetuating that old fiction that UGA has some claim to five national titles. They have ONE (1980). They did not really come close in 1927, 1942, 1946, and one other “claim” that I can’t remember just now.
Brainiac(Dawg for life)(CMR fan for life)
June 24th, 2012
8:55 pm
@ Eb:
While you are busy trashing Bobby Cox don’t forget to mention the 14 Consecutive Division Titles he won and that he is a future Hall of Famer or would that spoil your stupid posts????
Freida Lea
June 24th, 2012
9:12 pm
Why hasn’t Mark Richt been fired by now? Inquiring minds want to know.
The Professor
June 24th, 2012
9:23 pm
“The Professor, if you’re so smart, how come you could never come up with a viable plan to escape that island? You were never smart enough to factor Gilligan into the equation.”
It’s a good question. The problem with Gilligan was that he was secretly a UGA fan. We needed him to work with us, but he was simply not capable of any tasks that required some smarts and teamwork.
Atlanta Gator
June 24th, 2012
9:47 pm
For obvious reasons, it’s always better to be underrated rather than overrated . . . .
The three national championships won by the Gators in 1996, 2006 and 2008, they started the season ranked as No. 4, No. 7 and No. 5, respectively. Better not to make the kids think they’re better than they really are, and it’s also better not to have a target painted on your back for every other SEC team and rival to better aim for the upset. Even when the kids’ heads are screwed on right, carrying the Big No. 1 wire to wire is a heavy psychological burden—-see, e.g., the 2009 Gators’ joyless attempt to repeat as BCS champions. Far better to start the season with a preseason ranking of No. 5 to No. 10; that keeps you in the hunt, and allows you to move up when you win. If a team starts in the bottom half of the top 10, it’s pretty darn rare that they won’t move into the top 2 or 3 if they win out. (Notable exception: 2004 Auburn Tigers.)
DawgNole
June 24th, 2012
10:11 pm
A dad
June 22nd, 2012
7:00 am
Why does UGA fail? Best guess is because what the middle initial stands for – Georgia. This state is a national laughing stock – last in education, first in political corruption. And yes locals, I know your most witty retort “well, if you don’t laik it, then leave.” Believe me, I’m working on that.
____________________
Well, you’re obviously not working hard enough on that. Get busy!
DawgNole
June 24th, 2012
10:22 pm
Joey
June 22nd, 2012
7:52 am
Appologies, brilliant one – as you realize, I left off the “St.” As in Arizona St.
Is that better?
Please check the rest of my posts for spelling. Appreciate it in advance.
Regards . . .
______________________
It’s not a matter of being “better.” It’s a matter of being accurate–especially when you run your yap on here incessantly.
And how bout YOU check your atrocious spelling, which–coupled with your gross inaccuracies–makes you look foolish at best.
Hairy Dawg
June 24th, 2012
10:29 pm
The Dawgs and state is known for best football talent and that helps to get the recruits. But then Dawgs get stuck with Adams who no friendly to letting us recruits with no restrictions. We have 5 or more national titels and get more once we fix the Adams problem. We play in the SEC and got real mens on the team. They have the talent and guts to be best.
Go Dawgs!
Kimmer
June 24th, 2012
10:36 pm
1eyedJack
June 24th, 2012
1:20 pm
“The Professor, if you’re so smart, how come you could never come up with a viable plan to escape that island? You were never smart enough to factor Gilligan into the equation.”
The heck with that! Getting Ginger and Mary Ann in the “equation” is what would count most!
The Hefty Lefty
June 25th, 2012
1:37 am
Mark: When are we going to win our title?
J. Cole
June 25th, 2012
5:53 am
Georgie is a very solid second tier SEC team that still trails LSU, Florida, Bama, Auburn…even Tenn on the national level. They have had their moments, but never seem to break through. Their equals are Wisconsin, Oregon, West Virginia, Va Tech, Boise St. ..maybe Clemson. All these teams have had their spotlight, but they all aren’t quite there yet.
With the weakest SEC schedule, they have a chance to make a run …
or get Richt fired.
Columbus Dawg
June 25th, 2012
7:02 am
J. Cole = Idiot.
gt4ever
June 25th, 2012
7:37 am
UGA wins this year because of the dismal schedule…. When they have to play somebody good they will of course, LOSE…. I mean they are not as bad as my Jackets, but lets face it, college football in Georgia is an embarrassment. All the good football players coming out of Georgia high school’s and we don’t have a championship caliber team… What a JOKE!
falcon for life and Georgia sucks
June 25th, 2012
8:01 am
3 games against Buffalo, Ga. So. and some other also ran doesn’t shut me up at all that this “team” is completely overrated…..
Dwight in Greensboro
June 25th, 2012
8:01 am
Frankly, I’m pretty fed up with all of the Richt apologists with their lame whining that all schools have the same problems with their athletes. That’s utter baloney. UGA has so many athletes arrested and suspended or dismissed outright because Mark Richt recruits low class dummies with no moral code, no sense of teamwork, and a “me first” attitude that’s like a cancer to the team.
Sally Lea
June 25th, 2012
8:09 am
I agree 100% with Dwight. Mark Richt may be a nice fellow, but he’s not a winning football coach, at least not in the SEC, bless his heart.