Is the ACC doomed? Hardly, and here are the reasons why
OK, so it isn't football, but it's still an off-tackle dive play. (AJC photo by Johnny Crawford)
Let’s be clear: The ACC has work to do. But that’s not nearly the same as being doomed, which is how some have characterized the conference after the double hit of Florida State’s (apparently overstated) flirtation with the Big 12 and the announcement of the SEC/Big 12 New Year’s Day bowl. As a public service, we attempt to distinguish flaming hyperbole from colder reality.
The ACC needs to tie itself to a big new bowl. This part is true. Indeed, this is essential. The chance of the champions from the SEC and the Big 12 being omitted from the presumptive four-team BCS playoff is small; the chance of an ACC titlist not making the final cut is rather larger. (No ACC team has played for the BCS title since Florida State in 2000, which was so long ago that Mark Richt was the Seminoles’ offensive coordinator.)
To be considered viable, the ACC cannot have its champ landing in, say, the Champs Sports Bowl. Nobody knows how the postseason matrix will look two years down the road — will existing bowls become part of the BCS tournament? — but the ACC can’t wait. It must find itself a worthy partner. That partner need not be the Big East, the least of the Big Six football leagues. Better for the ACC to forge an alliance with the runner-up from the Big Ten or the Pac-12 or even the SEC than to be doomed to a decade of playing Cincinnati. (Pie-in-the-sky scenario: The ACC aligns itself, bowl-wise, with Notre Dame.)
Florida State is already gone. Not true. Not even close. This whole kerfuffle resulted from Andy Haggard telling Warchant.com that the Board of Trustees “would be in favor of seeing what the Big 12 has to offer.” But ESPN obtained a memo written by FSU president Eric Barron that outlined the pros and cons of such a move, and the cons outnumbered the pros 7-4. Not least: “The faculty are adamantly opposed to joining a league that is academically weaker.”
The Big 12 needs Florida State more than FSU needs the Big 12. Even after adding West Virginia and TCU, the Big 12 is up to only 10 members. Any school considering Big 12 relocation must grasp that the Big 12 exists to prop up Texas. From Barron’s memo: “Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska and Texas A&M left the Big 12 at least in part because the Big 12 is not an equal-share conference. Texas has considerably more resource avenues and gains a larger share (and I say this as a former dean of the University of Texas at Austin).”
Florida State joined the ACC in 1991 for two reasons: Better academics and a clearer path to the football national championship. All that has changed is that Florida State hasn’t lately held up its football end. Were the Seminoles still going 12-0 or 11-1, they’d be in the BCS title mix. Rightly or wrongly, the Seminoles are still seen as the ACC’s football factory. In the Big 12, they’d stand third behind Texas and Oklahoma. Would that be an upgrade?
ACC commissioner John Swofford should again don his poacher’s hat. As unseemly as this sounds, it’s a pragmatic truth. The league will expand to 14 teams when Syracuse and Pittsburgh arrive, and it needs to grow more — and only in part because of football.
Swofford’s theft of Syracuse and Pittsburgh from the Big East changed the balance of basketball power. The ACC reclaimed first place in that derby, and for as much money as football generates we cannot forget that basketball is itself an attractive commodity. Simple math: The football season lasts roughly four months; the basketball season runs from mid-November to early April, which is closer to five months. And basketball teams play 30-some games, as opposed to 12 or 13, making for many more programming opportunities.
Swofford should go hard at UConn and Louisville, schools that graced the past two Final Fours and play competitive football. (Kansas would be a target if it hadn’t pledged to forfeit Big 12 TV money if it leaves.) Those two would stretch the ACC map and would make this the basketball league to end all basketball leagues. Marketing slogan: “You might not want to coach here, but you’ll darn sure watch our games!”
Such a course might seem counter-intuitive, but better for the ACC to play to its strength than a perceived weakness. Realistically, what available schools would burnish the ACC’s football image? (Notre Dame, maybe?) That doesn’t mean the league can’t survive: Not if its champ is given a chance to play for the BCS title when a chance is warranted; not if its champ is assured a profitable bowl home if it doesn’t make the four-team playoff, and not if good football is paired with great basketball.
One thing more: This isn’t the first time we’ve wondered if the ACC is bound for oblivion. But a check of history shows that the conference hasn’t lost a member since 1971, when Frank McGuire tired of his South Carolina Gamecocks getting beat in the ACC tournament. This league isn’t as bold and brassy as the SEC, but in its understated way it hangs tough. It’s not going away just yet.
By Mark Bradley
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401 comments Add your comment
Supersize that order, mutt
May 23rd, 2012
5:52 pm
Delbert, I would rather see Tech in the SEC because of old rivalries, but I would also like to see us in the Big 10. I don’t see that one happening though.
Ray Goof's Hat
May 23rd, 2012
5:54 pm
All ACC joking aside, I hate (i) conference consolidation and (ii) conferences that have no geographic consistency. I enjoy the regional aspect of conferences and the bragging rights that come with them. I’m afraid that is all being discarded now.
Beast from the East
May 23rd, 2012
5:55 pm
Tech in the SEC would be great. Atlanta is such an easy travel location for all SEC schools, that you guys would have a hard time keeping the opposing fans out of Bobby Dodd. EVERY conference game would be standing room only.
Supersize that order, mutt
May 23rd, 2012
5:58 pm
@ Beast……you got that exactly right. Tech season ticket sales would explode astronomically too, so all those seats would not be filled with fans of the opposing schools.
Ghost
May 23rd, 2012
6:03 pm
Super, Auburn strongly opposed techs re entry into the conference.
Mike
May 23rd, 2012
6:06 pm
im not sure why they think travel costs would increase. If Clemson and FSU went to the Big 12, they would likely pair with the Texas schools in a southern division. Traveling to Texas a couple of times a year isnt any worse than traveling to BC, Maryland. WVU is right by Virginia area of course. Pitt and Syracuse arent going to be any better than traveling to Kansas or Oklahoma. Iowa St. would be the killer, but how often are they going to travel there…once every 5-6 years?
Beast from the East
May 23rd, 2012
6:06 pm
Supersize,
Not saying that Tech fans wouldn’t want to see the games, but just stating that it would be a hard ticket to get. I would bet that ya’ll would have to look at stadium expansion within 5 years. Besides that, I truly believe being in the SEC would really help your recruiting in football. I’d love to see it happen, but it probably never will.
Rick James
May 23rd, 2012
6:06 pm
@Supersize that order, mutt
@ Rick James……I am stunned. A very good post…..LOL
However, as far as your comment that Tech would not add a TV benefit to the SEC, I think it definitely would on weekends when Tech played any of the top teams in the SEC, especially if UGA is on the road or playing a lesser quality team that weekend.
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It’s not a very good it’s just my opinion like all of my posts and I’m not slamming Tech which in your eyes would have made me an idiot..I understand your logic but I just dont think conferences agree when it comes to television markets.And I’ll stop here before I disagree with you and you start calling me names..No matter what happens Tech will be fine.
Mike
May 23rd, 2012
6:09 pm
Tech would fill the seats if they went to the Big 12 as well. Texas, WVU, TCU, OU, OSU would generate enough buzz to fill a 60,000 seat stadium.
GTBob
May 23rd, 2012
6:10 pm
I do wonder if the SEC will eventually regret not trying to get GT, FSU, and Clemson. They had the chance to completely lock down the south east and they didn’t really take it. Now there will be multiple conferences in the SEC’s back yard. What was good in the short term for a few more bucks might not end up being good in the long run.
Mike
May 23rd, 2012
6:12 pm
Tech would still play UGA every other year at Grant Field. Clemson and FSU would be in the Big 12, so Im not really sure why being in the SEC would fill the seats any better.
1 4 GT
May 23rd, 2012
6:13 pm
Awwwwwwwwwwwww, KERFUFFLE!!!!
Beast from the East
May 23rd, 2012
6:16 pm
GTBob,
Let’s be honest. The SEC already has the entire southeast locked down as far as viewership. I think that’s why they chose to go outside the current footprint to expand their viewership. I saw a poll last year that showed the Big 12 markets had almost the same amount of TV’s watching SEC games as Big 12 games.
Mike
May 23rd, 2012
6:17 pm
The SEC still would have 2 spots left for expansion if they wanted it. Its not out of the question, but I dont know why they exactly would regret not taking schools in states they already have a strong presence in.
Beast from the East
May 23rd, 2012
6:19 pm
Mike,
First of all, SEC fans travel much better than ACC fans. Secondly, don’t you think Tech fans would be more interested in home games against UF, UA, UT, SC, LSU, Arky, etc than WF, Duke, NC State, UVA, BC, Maryland etc?
GTBob
May 23rd, 2012
6:28 pm
Let’s be honest. The SEC already has the entire southeast locked down as far as viewership.
I don’t know if there is any accurate way of measuring that but for the most part that is true. It has mostly been against the ACC though. If the Big 10 and the Big 12 move into that territory is it just as safe? Are they ok with their recruits getting extra time with big name schools from around the country that they wouldn’t get otherwise? Are they ok with TX, OK, Ohio St, Michigan, Nebraska, etc, getting massive air time in the south east? There are a lot of variables in play in the long term planning. It may not end up mattering but it is certainly a risk.
DooleyDoo
May 23rd, 2012
6:32 pm
What game gets the greatest tv viewership, UNC-Duke BB, or UGa-Fl FB?
Ravon
May 23rd, 2012
6:41 pm
I believe last year”s BB game dwarfed even LSU-Bama game.
IL Jacket
May 23rd, 2012
6:41 pm
Mark, UConn was nothing before Calhoun got there and with his departure, it will go back to nothing. Good things come to those who wait, of a four team playoff is the way college football goes, then ND will have to join a conference and they have stated in the past they look more favorably on ACC than B1G. From that point, there are a number of teams that would die to join ACC. Did someone say Vandy, an increasingly isolated institution among the SEC schools. Accordingly, the ACC expansion prospects look a lot better than the SEC-Mizzou, really?
Rick James
May 23rd, 2012
6:43 pm
@GTBob
I do wonder if the SEC will eventually regret not trying to get GT, FSU, and Clemson. They had the chance to completely lock down the south east and they didn’t really take it. Now there will be multiple conferences in the SEC’s back yard. What was good in the short term for a few more bucks might not end up being good in the long run.
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I just dont see how the SEC will regret adding any of those teams now or in the long run.They bring nothing that the conference doesnt already have because its all about television markets.Multiple conferences in the backyard mean nothing when everyone wants to play in yours.FSU wants no part of the SEC they joined the ACC because they thought it was an easier road to the national championship.
Boise Dawg
May 23rd, 2012
6:43 pm
The funny thing about the ACC is the bottom and middle of the conference are pretty darn respectable. It is the teams that should be at the top in Football, like Florida State, Miami and Clemson that are hurting the conference perception. Sort of ironic that FSU is the one threatening to leave because they aren’t seeing the big paydays of the Big 12 and SEC. What FSU must be saying is they would rather be a mediocre program in the Big 12 than what they have been, which is a mediocre program in the ACC.
Beast from the East
May 23rd, 2012
6:45 pm
GTBob,
All of those schools already recruit the state of Florida very hard, with the excpetion of Texas (they don’t have to leave their own state). Whoever puts the best product on the field will always win the ratings contest. As it stands, that’s the SEC. I don’t see that changing anytime soon with the commitments that most of the SEC schools have to their football programs. Just look at the coaches’ salaries for proof of that commitment.
Beast from the East
May 23rd, 2012
6:49 pm
DooleyDoo,
I would say UNC-Duke hoops by a longshot on a national scale. But to be fair, UNC-Duke is about as good as it gets in college hoops. I don’t know if any regular season football game will ever garner that much interest on an annual basis.
Beast from the East
May 23rd, 2012
6:51 pm
Boise Dawg,
You are spot on. They want to cry about not being in a football conference, but they were brought into the ACC to help with that perception. They haven’t held up their end of the bargain. Jimbo may change that, but it’s yet to be seen.
Bofus
May 23rd, 2012
6:51 pm
Can anyone corroborate/ refute Ravon’s claim w/ stats?
cityslicker
May 23rd, 2012
6:53 pm
first the acc needs two devide into north and south divisions making the south the strong football division and the north the strong basketball division thus having the best of both worlds in the big money sports market and also keeping the game geographically close and travelabe for most fans and students. THE NORTH WOULD INCLUDE CUSE, BC, PITT, MARYLAND, VA TECH, VIRGINIA, WAKE, in football VA TECH woud carry the division flag to the conference tittle game in footall. THE SOUTH DIVISION WOULD INCLUDE MIAMI, FSU, GA TECH, CLEMSON, DUKE, NC STATE, UNC this would crate a strong football division in the deep south were football rules and would be like a baby SEC this would make the FSU/MIAMI GAME ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT GAMES IN THE COUNTRY AGAIN CLEMSON VS TECH/ FSUwould be great every year. IN basketball dont split in divisions and play 18 conference games. In football have 9 conference games 6 teams form your division and 3 cross over games with two rotating and one crossover rival (GA TECH/VA TECH) (UNC/VIRGINA) (MIAMI/BC) (NC STATE/MARYLAND) (WAKE/DUKE) CLEMSON/CUSE) FSU/PITT
GTBob
May 23rd, 2012
6:54 pm
They bring nothing that the conference doesnt already have because its all about television markets.
They are going to be sharing their television markets with other conferences though, giving them a better brand and identity in the southeast. That is what I wonder about. Will it be better in the long run to share some markets and enter new ones, or completely lock down some markets. It may sound crazy, but the SEC may not be a dominant conference forever. Nick Saban will retire eventually. When Texas and Oklahoma are the dominant teams all of the sudden and they have a strong southeastern presence then things wont look so black and white.
Clive
May 23rd, 2012
6:54 pm
Bama-LSU has local redneck appeal; UNC-Duke gets the nation’s interest.
cityslicker
May 23rd, 2012
6:55 pm
my senerio would be great for tech because every year we would play clemson,uga,fsu,miami, unc,nc state, va tech
That Dude Says...
May 23rd, 2012
6:57 pm
ACC people academics wise like to think they are Ivy League. Which they are not. If the ACC gets Louisville to join their conference the ACC schools might as well let people with GED’s in their schools. Louisville is a ghetto commuter school. I’m not a ACC dude but the ACC can do way better than Louisville.
IL Jacket
May 23rd, 2012
6:59 pm
With respect to the viewership, I know last year’s BCS Championship game had the lowest national tv ratings since the inception of the current BCS Championship system.
GTBob
May 23rd, 2012
7:01 pm
Can anyone corroborate/ refute Ravon’s claim w/ stats?
TV Viewers this past season:
Duke/UNC game 1: 3.12 million viewers
Duke/UNC game 2: 4.2 million viewers
UGA/Fla: 5 million viewers
LSU/Bama: 20 million viewers
Tebow in the playoffs: More then all of them combined.
Beast from the East
May 23rd, 2012
7:01 pm
GTBob,
Saban is a great coach, but he did not build Bama. When he’s gone, they may have a few down years, but they will always be a football power. The great thing about the SEC over the past 25 years is that so many different teams have carried the flag. UA, AU, UF, UT and LSU has all won BCS titles. Arky, UGA, SC and MSU have all had some great years, as well.
Clive
May 23rd, 2012
7:04 pm
The ACC isn’t the Ivy League, but the academic food chain in the East climbs south to north. And, who says the ACC is interested in Louiville?
That Dude Says...
May 23rd, 2012
7:07 pm
@Clive
You must of not read the article huh? Mark Bradley said the ACC should go after Louisville.
Clive
May 23rd, 2012
7:09 pm
GT Bob, your full of it. Tim Brando said both ESPN and other networks carried the last Duke-UNC game and numbers were off the chart even in states like Tx and Ca, not to mention NY. You must be citing viewership on one network.
Supersize that order, mutt
May 23rd, 2012
7:12 pm
@ Beast, regarding your 6:19 post…….What most people around here forget is that when Tech was still in the SEC back in the 60s, Grant Field was the largest capacity on-campus stadium in the southeast. Auburn and Bama played their big games (including the Tech games) at Legion Field in Birmingham, which had more capacity than either of the on-campus stadiums at the time. And in those days, Grant Field was sold out for every game. Dodd once stated that if Grant Field had a capacity of 75,000, it would have been sold out every week. That’s what being in the SEC does for you, and, like you said, if Tech were to get back in the SEC, the stadium would have to be enlarged within 5 years.
IL Jacket
May 23rd, 2012
7:12 pm
That was Mark’s suggestion, a UK grad, not one proposed by the ACC conference leadership.
That Dude Says...
May 23rd, 2012
7:15 pm
IL Jacket
Mark is a UK grad but he is a Louisville fan. Not last year when Louisville was in the Final Four but the Final Four before that what ever year it was when Louisville made it in the early 2000’s Bradley wrote a whole article about how growing up in Kentucky he was a in the closet Louisville fan.
IL Jacket
May 23rd, 2012
7:20 pm
Super, the sports landscape has changed dramatically in Atlanta since Tech left SEC. At that time, Atlanta had no professional sports teams, so the sports entertainment dollar has been allocated differently. Grant Field would see larger crowds, but the Tech student body is much more diverse and a percentage will not go to football games no matter who Tech is playing.
Supersize that order, mutt
May 23rd, 2012
7:24 pm
IL Jacket, I think that had Tech stayed in the SEC, the impact of the pro presence in Atlanta might have been felt initially. But if Tech had continued to play the kind of ball they had always played up until that time, that impact would have only been temporary. The Tech student body may be more diverse now, but it is also larger than it was in the 60s. I would imagine that every school faces that problem to some extent, and based on some complaints from UGA fans over the past several years, their student-body support isn’t what it once was either. I think it would all equal out in the long run.
Clive
May 23rd, 2012
7:25 pm
I can show where viewership for 2d UNC Duke game was 4.7m, and state of NC and some other states watched it on other networks as ESPN was blkd out.
2d game was 4th most watched BB game of all time.
Supersize that order, mutt
May 23rd, 2012
7:27 pm
IL Jacket, IMHO, the pro presence in Atlanta might have had a temporary impact on attendance at Tech games, but if Tech had continued fielding the kinds of teams they had in the past, the lasting effect would not have been that great. After all, not all ticket holders live in Atlanta anyway. As far as student attendance, from what I hear, even UGA has been seeing dwindling student attendance over the past few years. Student body diversity is changing everywhere. Regardless, fans come out for big games against quality opponents.
Delbert D.
May 23rd, 2012
7:35 pm
Beast – The slate of SEC opponents that you laid out in an earlier post would certainly fill Bobby Dodd Stadium. I just can’t see Tech getting even a little bit of interest from the SEC, though. There are some really good schools in the conference, with Georgia, Florida and the afore-mentioned AAU universities (including the 2 from the Big 12).
Scenario if Tech were to join the Big 12.
“Texas, WVU, TCU, OU, OSU would generate enough buzz to fill a 60,000 seat stadium.
Not like the SEC, not like Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Nebraska, Penn State, Iowa and Northwestern (a very fine private university right there with Duke).
West Virginia? TCU? I don’t mean to offend anyone, but those 2 aren’t in the same class of opposition.
Supersize that order, mutt
May 23rd, 2012
7:37 pm
Delbert, I agree. Oklahoma and Texas would fill the stadium, but I don’t see another single school currently in the Big 12 bringing many fans at all.
Delbert D.
May 23rd, 2012
7:39 pm
Beast – Sorry; I did know that Florida is an AAU member.
Supersize that order, mutt
May 23rd, 2012
7:42 pm
@ Delbert……Beast is correct; Florida IS an AAU member, Are any other SEC schools other than Vandy?
Delbert D.
May 23rd, 2012
7:44 pm
Baylor and TCU are relatively small schools with about 10,000 and 15,000 students. Northwestern, on the other hand, has about 10,000 undergrads and 10,000 grad students, Northwestern also has heavy contributors among its alumni. It is one of the most heavily endowed universities in the country. It’s real easy for deep-pocketed people to get from O’Hare to Hartsfield and vice-versa.
Delbert D.
May 23rd, 2012
7:45 pm
Super – Texas A&M and Missouri are AAU members.
Supersize that order, mutt
May 23rd, 2012
7:47 pm
Nevermind, I just found the answer. Texas A&M and Mizzou are both AAU schools, but that’s it— a total of four. Every school in the ACC is in the AAU. Several Big 12 schools are