Is the ACC doomed? Hardly, and here are the reasons why
OK, so it isn't football, but it's still an off-tackle dive play. (AJC photo by Johnny Crawford)
Let’s be clear: The ACC has work to do. But that’s not nearly the same as being doomed, which is how some have characterized the conference after the double hit of Florida State’s (apparently overstated) flirtation with the Big 12 and the announcement of the SEC/Big 12 New Year’s Day bowl. As a public service, we attempt to distinguish flaming hyperbole from colder reality.
The ACC needs to tie itself to a big new bowl. This part is true. Indeed, this is essential. The chance of the champions from the SEC and the Big 12 being omitted from the presumptive four-team BCS playoff is small; the chance of an ACC titlist not making the final cut is rather larger. (No ACC team has played for the BCS title since Florida State in 2000, which was so long ago that Mark Richt was the Seminoles’ offensive coordinator.)
To be considered viable, the ACC cannot have its champ landing in, say, the Champs Sports Bowl. Nobody knows how the postseason matrix will look two years down the road — will existing bowls become part of the BCS tournament? — but the ACC can’t wait. It must find itself a worthy partner. That partner need not be the Big East, the least of the Big Six football leagues. Better for the ACC to forge an alliance with the runner-up from the Big Ten or the Pac-12 or even the SEC than to be doomed to a decade of playing Cincinnati. (Pie-in-the-sky scenario: The ACC aligns itself, bowl-wise, with Notre Dame.)
Florida State is already gone. Not true. Not even close. This whole kerfuffle resulted from Andy Haggard telling Warchant.com that the Board of Trustees “would be in favor of seeing what the Big 12 has to offer.” But ESPN obtained a memo written by FSU president Eric Barron that outlined the pros and cons of such a move, and the cons outnumbered the pros 7-4. Not least: “The faculty are adamantly opposed to joining a league that is academically weaker.”
The Big 12 needs Florida State more than FSU needs the Big 12. Even after adding West Virginia and TCU, the Big 12 is up to only 10 members. Any school considering Big 12 relocation must grasp that the Big 12 exists to prop up Texas. From Barron’s memo: “Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska and Texas A&M left the Big 12 at least in part because the Big 12 is not an equal-share conference. Texas has considerably more resource avenues and gains a larger share (and I say this as a former dean of the University of Texas at Austin).”
Florida State joined the ACC in 1991 for two reasons: Better academics and a clearer path to the football national championship. All that has changed is that Florida State hasn’t lately held up its football end. Were the Seminoles still going 12-0 or 11-1, they’d be in the BCS title mix. Rightly or wrongly, the Seminoles are still seen as the ACC’s football factory. In the Big 12, they’d stand third behind Texas and Oklahoma. Would that be an upgrade?
ACC commissioner John Swofford should again don his poacher’s hat. As unseemly as this sounds, it’s a pragmatic truth. The league will expand to 14 teams when Syracuse and Pittsburgh arrive, and it needs to grow more — and only in part because of football.
Swofford’s theft of Syracuse and Pittsburgh from the Big East changed the balance of basketball power. The ACC reclaimed first place in that derby, and for as much money as football generates we cannot forget that basketball is itself an attractive commodity. Simple math: The football season lasts roughly four months; the basketball season runs from mid-November to early April, which is closer to five months. And basketball teams play 30-some games, as opposed to 12 or 13, making for many more programming opportunities.
Swofford should go hard at UConn and Louisville, schools that graced the past two Final Fours and play competitive football. (Kansas would be a target if it hadn’t pledged to forfeit Big 12 TV money if it leaves.) Those two would stretch the ACC map and would make this the basketball league to end all basketball leagues. Marketing slogan: “You might not want to coach here, but you’ll darn sure watch our games!”
Such a course might seem counter-intuitive, but better for the ACC to play to its strength than a perceived weakness. Realistically, what available schools would burnish the ACC’s football image? (Notre Dame, maybe?) That doesn’t mean the league can’t survive: Not if its champ is given a chance to play for the BCS title when a chance is warranted; not if its champ is assured a profitable bowl home if it doesn’t make the four-team playoff, and not if good football is paired with great basketball.
One thing more: This isn’t the first time we’ve wondered if the ACC is bound for oblivion. But a check of history shows that the conference hasn’t lost a member since 1971, when Frank McGuire tired of his South Carolina Gamecocks getting beat in the ACC tournament. This league isn’t as bold and brassy as the SEC, but in its understated way it hangs tough. It’s not going away just yet.
By Mark Bradley
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401 comments Add your comment
WhoCares?
May 23rd, 2012
2:20 pm
The ACC is currently irrelevant in football, and nothing that has happened has altered that. But, if FSU leaves, everything could fall apart. However, GA and SC will not be moving to the ACC under any imaginable circumstance.
follow the money
May 23rd, 2012
2:30 pm
Promethius and his use of “the Big4″ gives us the ACC’s underlying problem in a nutshell. The Carolina schools feel they are above all the rest.
GTBob
May 23rd, 2012
2:31 pm
The ACC is currently irrelevant in football, and nothing that has happened has altered that. But, if FSU leaves, everything could fall apart.
Honestly, why would losing Florida St cause so much damage to the ACC? If they are so bad at football then losing one of their average teams isn’t really going to change anything.
Jacket99
May 23rd, 2012
2:32 pm
UGA, USCe, and UF should all move to the ACC. Form a superconference for football AND basketball. Be a leader and not cowtow to the state of Alabama. ACC would have all Atlantic coast states south of the Mason-Dixon Line locked up.
Mike
May 23rd, 2012
2:34 pm
The ACC could lose all four southeast teams and not be any worse off than they already are. Now if Va Tech leaves, as well, thats a bigger problem. Still Va Tech isnt doing anything for the ACC BCS rep. It just means they will have more beat downs like last years Orange Bowl coming.
Mike
May 23rd, 2012
2:36 pm
There is absolutely no reason whatsoever to leave the SEC and join the ACC.
Mike
May 23rd, 2012
2:38 pm
The way I see it, the southern ACC teams are gone. FSU, Clemson, and very likely Ga Tech and Miami. The ACC’s profile will just move further north where they just picked up Pitt and Syracuse. They might try to raid the Big East again or grab Notre Dame or Penn St. Honestly, Im not sure why. The ACC championship game has been a bust. They should just stay at 10 members.
Ghost
May 23rd, 2012
2:38 pm
Super, Dooley had nothing to do with Techs failure to be re admitted to SEC. The Miss schools , Auburn and Alabama all voted no. Now tech brings nothing to the table, the Atlanta market is already owned by the SEC.
Birmingham Jacket
May 23rd, 2012
2:40 pm
No self-respecting Georgia Tech fan wants to be in a basketball conference.
D. Rad needs to get us to the Big 10.
GTBob
May 23rd, 2012
2:42 pm
No self-respecting Georgia Tech fan wants to be in a basketball conference.
I’m not so sure this is true. I love football but it isn’t everything.
Danny H
May 23rd, 2012
2:44 pm
The Big12 in their new agreement has equal revenue sharing so that is no longer an issue. Plus Kansas retains their 3rd tier basketball revenue
Two Bits
May 23rd, 2012
2:44 pm
FSU brings their past success, their hope for resurrecting that success in the near future and their undeniable ratings draw to the ACC. Losing FSU would impact the ACC beyond the Noles’ recent mediocre on-field performance.
Jacket99
May 23rd, 2012
2:45 pm
Mike
May 23rd, 2012
2:36 pm
There is absolutely no reason whatsoever to leave the SEC and join the ACC.
———————————
Better for basketball, better academically, better for traditional rivalries, and in the end, more money.
Add to that, more chances for conference titles, automatic bids to 4-team playoff, and more prestige for faculty and alumni.
The only losers would be SEC fans. I would think UGA fans would like their program to be a big fish in a bigger pond.
UGA, USCe, and UF are a better fit academically and athletically with the ACC than they are with the remedial studies football factories to the west.
NBA And NHL Playoffs: Does Anyone Really Care? – NPR
May 23rd, 2012
3:02 pm
[...] Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog) [...]
GTBob
May 23rd, 2012
3:07 pm
The Big12 in their new agreement has equal revenue sharing so that is no longer an issue. Plus Kansas retains their 3rd tier basketball revenue
Third tier basketball revenue is going to be close to non existent for Kansas. ESPN will have first pick of the basketball games and they are going to take nearly all of the Kansas games. Kansas may get one or two tier 3 games. Most of the Tier 3 money for Kansas will come from radio contracts.
Very Interesting
May 23rd, 2012
3:12 pm
You can count on it!!! Notre Dame holds the key. Should the Irish opt for the ACC, FSU stays put. However , word is that the Big 12 is interested in the Golden Domers too. If the Irish bolt to the Big 12 , the ‘Noles will follow. They would be crazy if they didn’t…..
Joe
May 23rd, 2012
3:12 pm
Having inflated ego’s of ourselves (believing that we can pull in ND or SEC teams now AND that FSU, Clemson, VA Tech, NC State are not each critical to the health of our conference) will doom us.
We have a rich, albeit down, tradition in football.
We need to first and foremost ensure that NONE of the 14 of us leave (incentives for football success / incentive for larger media markets, etc.), act quickly and pre-emptively to become the first mega conference by securing the teams with value (market area or basketball primarily since that is about all that is left).
Cutting off the Big 12 at the pass is our only hope for a seat at the table. The Big 12 3 team tradition in football (OK, OK St, Texas) is really not as significant as ours historically (BC, Miami, Clemson, Va Tech, FSU). The Big 12 looks and feels stable right now, but we need to ensure that we weaken them by expanding NOW and doing what it takes to keep what we have.
old dog
May 23rd, 2012
3:15 pm
Not hatin’ but the ACC has a long way to go to be a relevant football conference………..
Matt
May 23rd, 2012
3:19 pm
http://outkickthecoverage.com/virginia-tech-fans-have-sec-fever.php
Delbert D.
May 23rd, 2012
3:27 pm
Back a few posts, Promethius hit on something, the collaboration of the Carolina universities on research. The Big Ten is even more so, with all of their universities involved. That is the reason their membership is 100% AAU (a caveat: Nebraska was a member when they joined, but the AAU subsequently voted them because their research was too heavy in agriculture. To regain membership, their research, particularly in engineering, has to redirect.) The Big Ten would take Notre Dame regardless. It has high academic prestige.
The research universities in the U.S. compete for nearly $60 billion in federal funding, and the 59 AAU members get nearly 60% of that.
ACC is Dead
May 23rd, 2012
3:27 pm
Add Kansas and Louisville? Yes, another basketball move is exactly what the ACC needs to survive.
Watch and see what happens when you let basketball drive the boat.
Auburn Grad
May 23rd, 2012
3:29 pm
Tech and FSU to the SEC!
The ACC has brought both down to a lower level football-wise. Neither school will ever be competitive on a consistent basis in basketball.
909
May 23rd, 2012
3:31 pm
The ACC will not remain in its current form.
It will get carved up between the BIG12, B1G, and SEC.
Delbert D.
May 23rd, 2012
3:32 pm
Should read, “the AAU subsequently voted them out..”
DooleyDoo
May 23rd, 2012
3:34 pm
Auburn grad, yes and the deification of FB at Auburn has relegated that university to the bottom of the academic barrel.
GT
May 23rd, 2012
3:34 pm
Good stuff. One more thing is the ACC dominates the major city markets on the east coast. Television contracts are fluid not always the way they are today. A lot of these kids don’t want to go to a backwoods university and in this era a lot of kids qualify for the ACC schools that live in these cities which was not always the case. You are seeing coaches starting to come back to the ACC, that are nationally respected. These kind of coaches like the big media market too. Somewhere in this formula the ACC gets a pay off and certainly a bowl selection has to consider the major media markets.
Chuck
May 23rd, 2012
3:40 pm
FYI….ALL members of the Big 12 conference have assigned all of their TV rights to the conference. IE….if Kansas would leave to go to the ACC, then Kansas would be legally obligated to turn over all TV related money received from the ACC to the Big 12 conference. It seems that so many people do not realize that. Thus, NO ONE will be leaving the Big 12, even Texas or OU, for at least the next 6 years and there is a 13 year extension being introduced at the Big 12 meetings next week.
Jacket99
May 23rd, 2012
3:40 pm
GT…is that why Cutcliffe stayed at Duke rather than accept the HC job at Tennessee?
Delbert D.
May 23rd, 2012
3:42 pm
Another thing mentioned earlier: Oklahoma State is not part of a “big 3″ with Texas and Oklahoma in the Big 12. Oklahoma State’s last conference championship prior to last season was sharing the Big 8 championship in 1976. They are 14-8 in bowl games, with 9 of those appearances since the 2002 season. Had Oklahoma State not been part of a required “package” last year, Oklahoma would now be in the PAC-12.
Davek
May 23rd, 2012
3:42 pm
Yup Reality, SEC fans are jealous of the ACC. Each night they curl up in their pile of money and cry themselves to sleep while dreaming of trading 6 consecutive national titles for $5, 50 yard line seats for Friday night Duke v. UVA football.
Adam W
May 23rd, 2012
3:46 pm
Just out of curiosity, why would you think Kansas would leave the Big 12 where it makes more money and plays in a regional conference to go to the ACC where it would make less money and have to spend more money on travel? Doesn’t make sense.
It makes as much sense as ACC homers thinking they can get Penn State out of the B1G. Nevermind that the B1G has a 20 year Grant of Rights and Penn State is locked in until at LEAST 2027, but they are making huge dollars there.
You cannot poach teams that have signed a grant of rights. ACC could raid the Big East or, maybe Notre Dame but that whole Tier 3 issue will keep ND out of the ACC.
Joe
May 23rd, 2012
3:46 pm
Great point Chuck. So once a team is off the table – gone to the Big 12, it is effectively gone for good. We must be preventitive and find a way to keep those that are in our conference. We must also be pre-emptive to secure teams that would make the Big 12 stronger. Their weakness adds to our strength.
Jimmy
May 23rd, 2012
3:47 pm
What kind of idiot says the ACC has brought FSU down. FSU has top facilities and brings in top 5 classes every year and yet they still cannot win that isn’t the ACC’s fault that is all FSU internally mostly coaching.
Auburn Grad
May 23rd, 2012
3:49 pm
Auburn grad, yes and the deification of FB at Auburn has relegated that university to the bottom of the academic barrel.
How do you think I got my degree? At least back then stamps only cost 4 cents.
Shippwrecked
May 23rd, 2012
3:50 pm
Mark,
You’re refusing to see the facts? Your 2 cents are actually worth 2 cents. Unless you don’t care or not keeping up with college football, you can see that schools need to spend money to make money in the race for the best recruits and coaches It’s a survival of the fittest. Up until now, ACC football schools have not given a fair share of attention from the ACC head office. To say that we can be or do better in the near future is full of self delusions. In case you haven’t noticed, Big 12 with 10 schools has a bigger TV contract than entire 14 teams of ACC, not to mention the 3rd tier TV rights. Most of you are not aware that Kansas makes 8 millions on their third tier TV, before Texas reeled in a big one from ESPN. In any case, this article has a desperate sound to it.
Jacket99
May 23rd, 2012
3:51 pm
Jimmy
May 23rd, 2012
3:47 pm
What kind of idiot says the ACC has brought FSU down.
———————————–
An Auburn Grad.
Auburn Grad
May 23rd, 2012
3:57 pm
Y’all get ugly, I’m going home.
GTBob
May 23rd, 2012
3:58 pm
What kind of idiot says the ACC has brought FSU down. FSU has top facilities and brings in top 5 classes every year and yet they still cannot win that isn’t the ACC’s fault that is all FSU internally mostly coaching.
Exactly. Somehow it is the ACC’s fault that Florida St struggles to beat UVA and Wake Forest.
1 4 GT
May 23rd, 2012
3:59 pm
Hell, most folk don’t have a clue what “kerfuffle” even means—-especially Georgiee folk!!!
Delbert D.
May 23rd, 2012
4:05 pm
Another thing, about the ACC “tying itself to a big bowl.” Against whom, pray tell? With the Big Ten, PAC-12, SEC and Big 12 champions in the playoffs, and the 2nd team from each of those conferences in the Rose Bowl and the new big bowl, that leaves either the Big East, C-USA or worse, or the 3rd team from one of the four power conferences. How big is that bowl game going to be?
Silly Bloggers
May 23rd, 2012
4:06 pm
Just two comments more in line with the Techies (though I bleed red and black).
1. Despite any new revenue sharing in the Big 12, it has not even been a year since other teams bailed out on the Big 12. There is a reason: Texas is Texas. Whatever deal is currently in place, all Texas has to do is threaten to leave and any existing “guarantees” will disappear. I just can’t see FSU or any football powerhouse (and FSU is still potentially a top-tier team despite the past decade) jumping ship to the Big 12. And if you say WV, I just don’t see them as a top-tier team…but rather a team that has had some nice success the past decade. In other words, the exact opposite history of FSU.
2. ND is a lot of things, but they are not going to compromise what little academic integrity they have by joining the Big 12. If they go anywhere, it would be the Big 10 or the ACC. With the ACC, they would get a sweetheart deal and insure the survival and the growth of the conference. In the Big 10, they would fit, but I guarantee you it wouldn’t benefit them as much as the ACC.
Unless the SEC comes knocking again for FSU and Clemson, FSU is not going anywhere. Get ND and you improve the conference strength and perception while maintaining its academic integrity.
Go Dawgs!
Silly Bloggers
May 23rd, 2012
4:08 pm
And I’d like to thank whatever Techie acknowledged the fact that Vandy (by far), UGA, and Florida are academically separate from the rest of the SEC. No doubt UGA would be a middle to lower-tier academic institution compared to the rest of the ACC, but they are academically superior to most of the SEC (for whatever that is worth).
flagboy?
May 23rd, 2012
4:10 pm
All the conference expansion crap is annoying. But hey, everyone is trying to keep up with the TV money.
ACC is weak in football at the moment and football drives everything because of the money. If FSU leaves, the dominoes will fall.
And anyone saying get Notre Dame is foolish. ND plays with their own money because of the NBC crap and all of that. As much as I hate ND and having to watch their games all the time, they’ve got a good thing going (even if they’re largely irrelevant in football at the moment) and they’d be idiots to change it with all the money they’re making.
flagboy?
May 23rd, 2012
4:14 pm
Jacket99
May 23rd, 2012
3:40 pm
GT…is that why Cutcliffe stayed at Duke rather than accept the HC job at Tennessee?
__________________________
do you really need an answer for that?
Silly Bloggers
May 23rd, 2012
4:15 pm
flagboy, ND joinging a conference is hardly foolish. Once they are left out of the four-team playoff, they are going to become even more irrelevent in football…as will their deal with NBC. Granted, ND has a following, but it is getting smaller by the year. They can join the ACC and get nearly everything they want while increasing their relevance, as well as the ACC’s. Not sure if you have tracked the numbers, but ND games TV audiences are shrinking at an alarming rate on an annual basis.
BIG BEE
May 23rd, 2012
4:17 pm
Opinions are like butts, everyone has one.
follow the money
May 23rd, 2012
4:17 pm
I was under the impression that ND athletics, with their own TV deal, failed to make the same money that the big ten schools made.
Delbert D.
May 23rd, 2012
4:21 pm
On the subject of football at very fine academic institutions, how is it that some schools can get so far off mission? The very prominent most recent examples who have seriously messed in their own nest are USC, Ohio State, Miami and North Carolina.
TruthHurts
May 23rd, 2012
4:27 pm
1. “Better for the ACC to forge an alliance with the runner-up from the Big Ten or the Pac-12 or even the SEC than to be doomed to a decade of playing Cincinnati.”
When the new 4-team playoff system is implemented, they will take the top ranked 4 teams or league champion in the Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC and B12. That is why the new agreement between the Big 12 and SEC is so important. If teams from the SEC or B12 are in the 4 team playoff, then the next best team from either league will play in the new bowl. Same goes for the Big Ten/Pac-12. This leaves the ACC’s best team playing a bowl against the SEC/Big12/Pac12/Big Ten’s 3rd place team or a team from an irrelevant conference. That’s the best case scenario assuming the SEC and Big 12 don’t make arrangements for other bowls as well.
In short, the runner up from the Pac-12, Big 10, Big 12 and SEC won’t be available to the ACC unless these conferences fail to field a team for the 4 team playoff. AKA– Not going to happen.
2. “the Big 12 is not an equal share conference.”
I realize you took this quote from Barron’s memo, but how about a little research Mark!?! The Big 12’s new deal splits all revenue from their ESPN and Fox contracts equally between all member schools. Texas makes more money because their Third Tier rights earned through the LHN. FSU would have the same opportunity The ACC, on the other hand, includes Third Tier rights for basketball and football games in the measly $17M per school contract. Compare this to $20M plus Third Tier that the Big 12 makes.
If FSU, paired with another school, join the Big 12; they would add an additional $2M per year to the TV contract. This would also create a conference championship game, adding an additional $1M-$2M. Further, FSU would be free to sell their Tier Three right for approximately $3M-$5M per year. Finally, the SEC/Big12 bowl would generate approximately $2M-$3M of additional TV revenue.
Adding up all these conservative estimates, FSU would likely make $28M-$31 in the Big 12 compared to $17M in the ACC. Potentially adding ND makes it even higher. Over the life of the 10 year contract, thats a $110M-$140M difference. Do you think FSU is happy with the fact that Iowa State is making way more TV money than FSU?
3. “Swofford should go hard at Kansas and Louisville, schools that graced the 2012 Final Four and that play creditable football.”
First of all, Kansas and Louisville went a combined 9-16 last year. Is this really the ACC’s idea of credible football? That viewpoint alone is probably indicative of the issues contributing to the demise of the ACC.
Finally, the Big 12 has established itself as one of the most stable conferences with the signing of its new contract and its Grant of Rights. Currently, Big 12 members have given the rights of all TV revenue to the conference for the next six years. The announcement of the new contract will extend this grant of rights for 13 years. That means no one can leave because the conference would be entitled to the TV of the departing school regardless of what conference they went to. If the ACC were to (in an unbelievably stupid move) snatch KU, all of the TV revenue would go directly to the Big 12 until 2025. I doubt any sane person honestly thinks this is remotely possible.
The ACC members refused to include such a grant of rights in their proposal. Combined with the small (and backloaded) ACC contract, this is why the ACC is ripe for the picking. This is also why so many ACC members want to leave the conference as soon as possible. Yesterday TCU’s AD, Del Conte, stated that the once dead Big 12 “now has schools like Florida State, Clemson and Miami trying to get in.” You should objectively examine this situation only after you take off your ACC colored glasses.
Delbert D.
May 23rd, 2012
4:30 pm
The Notre Dame contract with NBC expires in 2015. NBC would welcome a move of Notre Dame to a conference and canceling that contract.