Bourn-again Braves: The leadoff man is now the leading man
Sabermetric discussions can sometimes turn heated. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
“Show me a good offense,” Chipper Jones said Monday, “and I’ll show you a good leadoff hitter.”
For a change, the Atlanta Braves have a very good offense. For an even bigger change, they have a terrific leadoff hitter. We’ll get around to Michael Bourn’s non-numerical contributions in a bit — not to be confused with BABIP, one of those categories stat geeks love — but first a little fun with numbers.
If you’re a sabermetrician, you believe WAR is good for absolutely everything. (Say it again!) It stands for “wins above replacement.” It’s a complicated measure that fuses offense and defense and purports to reflect how many wins Player X is worth when measured against a garden-variety big-leaguer. There are two recognized WAR formulae — one by Baseball-Reference.com, the other by FanGraphs – and if you go by the former, the Braves’ leadoff hitter has been the best everyday WARrior in the National League.
Entering Monday night’s game, Bourn had achieved a WAR of 2.3. Among non-pitchers, only Josh Hamilton of Texas has a higher rating (3.1).
It should be noted that Bourn’s eyes didn’t exactly glaze over when informed of his statistical status, but neither did they dance with untrammeled delight. “I don’t focus on something like that,” he said. “I just go out and play the game.”
Some less exotic figures: Bourn was ninth in the National League in batting at .336, 11th in on-base percentage at .399, tied for fourth in stolen bases with 11, tied for first in hits with 51. “The numbers say a lot,” teammate Jason Heyward said. “He’s hitting over .300 in the leadoff spot. He’s on base one or two times a game. That’s huge.”
When Bourn was acquired just ahead of the 2011 trading deadline, it was thought/hoped he would have a catalytic effect on a pedestrian batting order. Alas, the flailing Braves were too far gone. Bourn hit .273 in 53 games and barely seemed to register amid the Epic Collapse. He registers now. (He went 1-for-5 in the Braves’ loss Monday, scoring their only run after a triple.)
Said manager Fredi Gonzalez: “People were saying we didn’t add anybody [over the winter]. We were thinking, ‘We’re getting a whole year of Michael Bourn.’ ”
The Braves awoke Monday leading the NL in runs scored; they were third in team batting, fourth in on-base percentage. Lots of folks have had a hand in the awakening — a rejuvenated Heyward, a thumping Freddie Freeman, a robust-at-40 Jones, new hitting coaches Greg Walker and Scott Fletcher — but lineups feed (or don’t feed) off the guy who bats first.
Said Gonzalez, speaking of Bourn: “He goes, we go. I think everyone has taken advantage of him being in the lineup and being on base.”
Said Bourn: “I’m on a pretty good team. We play together. We pick each other up.”
This is boilerplate Bourn. He’s relentlessly cheerful, and not just because his WAR is through the roof. As good as he has been on the field, he’s that good in the clubhouse.
“You know the numbers,” Gonzalez said, “but you appreciate the human being. What a great guy to have. He’s the same guy every day. He brings energy. He cares about winning and losing. He’s a pleasure to manage.”
He’s also a realist. “I’ve done OK so far,” Bourn said, “but there’s a long way to go. The thing about baseball is that you’ve got to get ready to play every day. We just got through with a good team [sweeping the Cardinals in St. Louis]. Now we’ve got the Reds.”
On Monday the Braves were scheduled to face Cincinnati pitcher Homer Bailey. Tuesday’s starter is the superb Johnny Cueto, whose WAR rating — yep, pitchers have them, too — is likewise 2.3. What happens when opponents of equal statistical measure go to WAR? Mutually assured destruction?
OK, enough stat chat. The nice thing about baseball is that you can have it all: You can love numbers more than the game itself, or you can just watch a guy play. Either way, Michael Bourn passes the test. He’s really good, and he has helped make his team really good, too. The only bad part is that he’ll be a free agent at season’s end, and he’s a Scott Boras client. Ouch, babe.
By Mark Bradley
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82 comments Add your comment
Red Clay Hound
May 15th, 2012
9:10 am
Liberty + Boras= No chance is resigning Bourne. Let’s enjoy him while we have him.
phil
May 15th, 2012
9:14 am
If you’re a sabermetrician, you believe WAR is good for absolutely everything. (Say it again!) It stands for “wins above replacement.” It’s a complicated measure that fuses offense and defense and purports to reflect how many wins Player X is worth when measured against a garden-variety big-leaguer. There are two recognized WAR formulae — one by Baseball-Reference.com, the other by FanGraphs – and if you go by the former, the Braves’ leadoff hitter has been the best everyday WARrior in the National League.
****************
phil
May 15th, 2012
9:16 am
With this article, the kiss of collapse has now been applied by Bradley. Just like Charlie Brown and everything he touches, Bradley brings instant doom upon any team about which he writes.
Thanks, Mark.
MorOrLess
May 15th, 2012
9:18 am
Never fear, after Bourn’s contract is up, they let him slip out the door, he’ll excel for another team and the Braves will replace him with another up and coming rookie and then feed us the propaganda about him being the next superstar so we’ll all feel better.
Elmer Fudd
May 15th, 2012
9:27 am
Too bad there is no chance the Braves keep him.
He will be a Yankee, Met or something of the kind.
ANOTHER GM
May 15th, 2012
9:40 am
I think its a known fact that if he doesnt take bottom dollar they will let him walk. Bourn is the most important player on this team bar none. Enjoy him this year because next season we will have a washed up verteran or a green rookie with no experience in CF.
Bill
May 15th, 2012
9:57 am
Mark you may pay him but Liberty Media will not
GaDawg
May 15th, 2012
10:22 am
Chipper’s contract coming off the books, Lowe’s contract coming off the books, seems like there will be money to resign him. Time to rearrange the pen and drop Venters down until he gets it together. Mondays not kind to the Bravos!
FoulTip
May 15th, 2012
10:31 am
Bourn, who in the early part of the season was not doing much in the way of production, must have read my Vent when I said we should trade him for Jordan Schafer just after playing Houston where Jordan looked the better of the two. Bourn must have realized that this is his contract year and saw the millions dollar sign and is playing as such. We’ve been through this before, either signing players after a big year or our players going elsewhere following their fantastic year before free agency. Usually, these players go back to their previous production once the large contract is signed.
urban redneck
May 15th, 2012
10:31 am
he will not be a brave next year………..we can’t afford him. liberty already made their big investment for the decade when they got uggly
DetroitBraves
May 15th, 2012
11:13 am
First, never thought I would see stats like WAR and BABIP used seriously in an AJC article so big time kudos to Mark (though it surprises me less that if it was going to happen Mark would be the writer to go there – he’s been a fine writer in this paper for a long time). As for Bourn, the only thing I would caution so far now that we’ve broken the ice on BABIP is that his is exceptionally high. Probably not sustainable. That said, he’s the type of player to post a higher than average BABIP and his BB% has returned to pre-2011 levels. Add to that his defense and his baserunning and he is truly and oustanding player.
But when it comes to the Braves signing or not signing him to his next contract I don’t believe any of us can answer that question. He will be 30 years old before next season’s opening day. As great as he is there is little question that whoever signs him will be paying prime dollars for decline years. Now, given his skillset those decline years may be relatively soft but until we know the dollars and the years we can’t say whether or not signing him is a good decision.
Ted M
May 15th, 2012
11:15 am
I was wrong about the Braves, they look great. In the off season I thought it was a mistake for the Braves to “just” hope that six big “ifs” for the Braves all workout…They all have, maybe the “ifs” weren’t so big.
Ted M
May 15th, 2012
11:21 am
So great seeing Pastornicky at SS instead of Gonzalez. His lack of hustle was infuriating. Still kinda sorry to see Gonzalez is out for the year after a pretty good start. Torn ACL
Ted M
May 15th, 2012
11:28 am
Too bad Bourn has play his way off the Braves team next year. The Braves won’t be able to resign him.
I think the Braves will still be able to make it work next year.
Ralph
May 15th, 2012
11:52 am
I am in favor of trading McCann to the AL while he still has high trade value and use the money saved to renew Bourn’s contract and bring up Gattis who could be back up catcher to Ross and also back up for Prado in LF who should be used as Chipper’s backup. Fatsisco ain’t gonna cut it.
John Galt
May 15th, 2012
12:08 pm
Pay the man, damn it.
SawThat1nce
May 15th, 2012
12:28 pm
Mike Jay @6:51pm…….”he needs to improve his base stealing.”—”(CS 5 times)”—–
In the games that I have watched, Bourne has been falsely called out 3 times stealing a base, 2 times at 2nd, 1 time at 3rd. He was also falsely called out on a force play at 2nd.
The replays showed the bad calls, to actually be bad(as in mistakes by the umps) calls. I don’t know how the umpires could even make a mistake on any of those calls.
TRIPLETHREAT
May 15th, 2012
12:46 pm
OK YALL IF YOU HAVE TO CHOOSE IS IT BOURN OR BMAC
PaulieOldSchool
May 15th, 2012
12:47 pm
If he’s a good ‘un, and he sure seems to be, the obvious thing is that we should re-sign him immediately, if not sooner, as the nuns used to tell me. Which basically means that we won’t, given who owns this team. But for now, I’m living in hope.
coach13
May 15th, 2012
12:53 pm
I wouldn’t say Bourn is producing because it’s a contract year. He’s lead the NL in steals for how many years now? 3? 4? The guy is exactly what this lineup needs and with Chippe’s contract alone they could resign him. Hudson’s contract will be gone soon and when does Lowe’s contract come off the books?
THe BRaves will have a ton of money from those 3 players. When is McCann’s contract up? Doubt they will resign him.
coach13
May 15th, 2012
12:55 pm
Triplethreat- I’ll take Bourn. Speed has a bigger impact. McCann is a below avg defensive catcher and his offensive production is only going to decline.
Denis Menke's Uncle
May 15th, 2012
1:30 pm
I agree with those that think he will walk. Boras is not giving any discounts. A discount means less money FOR BORAS in the end. MB takes a discount, thus Boras has too. He doesn’t like doing that. With Chipper, Lowe coming off the books, that is about $24 million in the black. I don’t think Liberty will give that back in players. I think the Braves payroll will drop. I don’t see them giving MB a contract like 6-7 years at $15 -18 million. That will be the area Boras starts. MB will be 30 next year. Speed is his game. In a 6-8 year contract, he will slow down a lot in year 34-36. Can they afford that? I hate walk years. It seems every stinking time a player has a great year and then boom, down hill after the big contract. Remember Andre Beltray had a fantastic year in LA and walked to Seattle for $65 million over 5 years. A TOTAL bust. He goes to Boston and has one great year and then gets the mega contract in Texas. He has done well there. But Seattle paid for five years of NOTHING.
Denis Menke's Uncle
May 15th, 2012
1:33 pm
Enter your comments here
reckingball
May 15th, 2012
1:53 pm
Sign both of them.
Mike
May 15th, 2012
2:01 pm
I don’t want to start a race issues but I wonder if Bourn would already be re-signed if he was white…its a forgone conclusion that the Braves will gladly overpay for McCann this summer…because he’s a hometown hero and white…nevermind that he wears down every year and he’s currently hitting horribly…instead of overpaying for McCann they should re-sign Bourn..unfortuntely they wont…they’ve done this in the past with minority players and its happening again
DetroitBraves
May 15th, 2012
2:49 pm
Bourn will almost certainly go to free agency, whether he ends up back in Atlanta or not. And it’s not a race issue. It’s a Scott Boras issue.
ANOTHER GM
May 15th, 2012
3:26 pm
I take Bourn any day over Mac. Dont get me wrong I like Mac but Bourn is a great leadoff hitter and centerfielder and they are hard to come by. How many years have the Braves been looking for a legit leadoff man?
Ronald Millsaps
May 18th, 2012
9:34 pm
The “bourn again” references are sacrilegious.
I’ve been saying since we acquired the guy that we need to try to lock him up————and Frank Wren hasn’t offered him a dime–though he shows every indication that he would indeed sign right now. Why not? Because Wren doesn’t want to offer a five-year deal to a guy who turns 30 before the next Opening Day. Fine. Offer a three- or four-year deal and include an option for four/five. Do something! Don’t just stand there!
Otherwise, Wren’s an outstanding GM and has done much better than John Schuerholz did in the final few years he was here.
Yes, we need new ownership. The incumbents are as sorry and apathetic at what they do as TBS folks are about running a decent network.
Quite a few ex-Braves are tearing it up: Rafael Furcal, Derek Lowe, Omar Infante, Kelly Johnson. Bobby doesn’t earn a D- in the way he handled Kelly during his time in Atlanta. As much as the man tore it up low in the order in ‘07, Bobby then shuffled him all over the lineup–when he had him in it…which he did so sporadically that the man couldn’t attain/maintain a hot hand the way you’d expect. Now he has more homers than anyone on the team. Infante is back to his 2010 standards…Good for him. I once told an ex-professor I could see our previous little man hitting 15 homers in a season. Said professor said that was unfathomable. Ha! He already has six.
Of course, said professor also said Dale Murphy’s being two homers shy of 400 is a true strike against him and that Atlanta’s not having Galarraga or Lopez in the ‘99 World Series is a non-factor, along with not having Justice in the ‘96 Series or Smoltz at all in 2000. This type of lunacy has always been commonplace but is getting more and more prevalent. (Oh, yeah; he also thinks Chris Rose is an astute, professional journalist. Oh, my.) The sport is getting corrupted by this type of nonsense being more and more prevalent in what otherwise traditionally has been a smartly-run/maintained entity. Chip Caray can be abrasive sometimes in his delivery, but at least he’s insightful and perceptive. We need someone like him running the sport, not someone who would penalize an umpire for calling a ball a “strike” but tolerate a strike being called a “ball”, not someone who would say the ASG winner gets home-field for his league, etc., etc..
Ronald Millsaps
May 18th, 2012
9:47 pm
The announcers have had their moments of being abrasive, period. All the banter is annoying and a distraction, for one. For another, Skip and Pete gave the e-mail address to contact them at WSB, and I once contacted them to see if previous recordings of broadcasts could be purchased. I never got even a response.
Ronald Millsaps
May 18th, 2012
10:24 pm
Mike— I had a long post which regrettably didn’t get posted, but race is a non-factor concerning Bourn/McCann. Those in the back need to post what I said because it’s a real eye-opener.
Ronald Millsaps
May 18th, 2012
10:42 pm
“another”— I have a real issue with braves.com telling us to vote for Chipper and McCann for the ASG. I’m not against either vote, but Bourn deserves the most votes of anyone on the team, followed by Chipper/Freeman/McCann/Prado.
Prado is getting almost no attention nowadays, but finding a guy who would quietly take a position he’s rather uncomfortable with and not resisting at all verbally is beyond rare; the man has strong character. He also playing like he did two years ago. He’s also not self-absorbed, unlike a Derek Jeter, who, like most of the NY/BOS connection, thinks everyone’s hanging on his every movement in the batter’s box.
I read a headline about how Curtis Granderson is one of the few “educated” players in the sport. What insanity. A degree and an education are separate issues.
Ronald Millsaps
May 18th, 2012
10:43 pm
He’s*