Jurrjens to the minors: How does a good pitcher go so bad?
Jair Jurrjens on a dark Monday in L.A. (AP photo)
I wonder if this would have happened in the days before pitch speed became a measurement available on ballpark scoreboards and TV broadcasts. I wonder if Jair Jurrjens would be headed for the minor leagues if those on the periphery didn’t keep harping about his velocity, or lack of same.
By any measure, Jurrjens has been awful over his four starts. He has lasted five innings in only one of them, and the reason he’s 0-2 and not 0-4 is that his team scored 10 runs for him in Start No. 2 and 14 in No. 3. His ERA is 9.37. Opponents are hitting .411 against him. On Monday in Los Angeles he faced 17 batters; 10 reached, five scored.
Jurrjens is pitching so badly that it can’t be called pitching at all. At issue is why he’s not pitching. Speculation continues to swirl that he’s hurt, although he and the Braves deny it. By sending him to Class AAA Gwinnett, as opposed to parking him on the disabled list, the Braves have sent a powerful indication that they don’t think there’s anything physically amiss.
Emotionally? Well, that’s another story. Speaking after Start No. 3 last week, Jurrjens sounded as confused as any demonstrably good pitcher I’ve ever heard, and I’ve heard a few. He sounded concerned about appearances, as opposed to results, and then he sounded concerned about being concerned.
What Jurrjens said then: “A lot of people get on me about how fast I’m throwing. I need to go back to pitching. But [velocity] is a hot topic every time I pitch. Everyone wants to see how fast I’m throwing, and that gets in your mind.”
Let the record show that Greg Maddux, who broke 90 mph on the radar gun only with a gale at his back, never gave a toss what anyone else thought. Back in 1994, Maddux handed me the absolute best description as to the folly of velocity:
You stand in the middle of the road and a car’s coming at you. Can you tell how fast it’s going? Can you tell if it’s going 55 or 60? You can’t. It’s the same standing in the middle of the diamond trying to hit a baseball. As a pitcher, you’re better off making 75 [mph] look like 85 instead of making 87 look like 90.
Even before I was given the privilege of watching Maddux and Tom Glavine work, I was of the opinion that velocity was wildly overrated. Who was the better closer: Kyle Farnsworth, bringer of the big heat but not much else, or Trevor Hoffman, whose best pitch was his change-up? If you can pitch, as opposed simply to throw, you can win big for a long time.
Some figure filberts, however, insisted all along that Jurrjens’ success wasn’t (stat-geek word here) sustainable. He didn’t strike out enough people, they said, didn’t miss enough bats. He “pitched to contact” — for the record, I hate that phrase — and sooner or later the contact would catch up to him.
Not sustainable? Jair Jurrjens had already won for five seasons. Go look it up: Even with his injuries, he’d never had a losing year in the majors. He was 50-33 on his 26th birthday. By way of comparison, the great Glavine was 53-52 the day he turned 26. (Glavine was another who “pitched to contact” — and he’ll wind up in Cooperstown having done so.)
With his smarts and his command, you could envision — well, I could — Jurrjens tracking a similarly artful career path. But now he has been demoted, and not just to the bullpen. From the All-Star game in Phoenix to Coolray Field in Lawrenceville, in 8 1/2 months: How stunning is that?
For the Braves, demotion surely was the right move. From his comments after Start No. 3, it was clear Jurrjens had lost focus, and losing focus is far more distressing that losing velocity. A good pitcher can fight through six innings on guts and guile, but Jurrjens was so confused — “I have it one inning; then I don’t have it” — he couldn’t even get through two clean ones. Nothing good was apt to happen by keeping him in the rotation, or in the big-league club’s bullpen.
I’m sure there are issues with his mechanics, as the argot has it. When a good pitcher goes bad, there invariably are. But I can’t help but believe the greater problem is that Jurrjens has stopped trusting himself and his stuff. He’s too worried about throwing hard, and he of all people should know that throwing hard doesn’t necessarily equate to getting people out. The hope here is that he remembers who he is. The hope here is this once-splendid pitcher remembers what it means to pitch.
By Mark Bradley
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150 comments Add your comment
StungByAYellowJacket
April 24th, 2012
9:11 am
With that being said, it also seems like something still isn’t completely right with Hanson as well, he has been performing okay, but not like the Hanson that we know he can be, is there something going on with him (perhaps mentally) as well? His fastball has me a bit concerned……
Mr. Fix-It for Braves Pitching
April 24th, 2012
9:14 am
Two Words:
Leo Mazzone
DetroitBraves
April 24th, 2012
9:14 am
While a lot of people thought he was a bit over his head, and a good sell high candidate prior to his injuries last year, a healthy Jurrjens isn’t nearly this bad. Not a #1, but a solid middle of the rotation guy. A lot of people now think that he’s having trouble between the ears. Maybe he is. I have no idea. If I were to guess I would say he’s not physically well. Either way, the sell high opportunity is gone. At least for now. Hoping for the best. With Vizcaino out for the year and Jurrjens a mess the deep pitching is becoming less deep by the day. At least Hudson should be back soon.
Simplicio
April 24th, 2012
9:15 am
@Mark Bradley: Greg Maddux’s point about velocity actually supports the claim that JJ’s drop in velocity is problematic. The greater the difference in velocity between the fastball and the changeup, the more effective the changeup will be. However, the less the difference in velocity between the fastball and the changeup, the less effective the changeup will be. So, JJ’s drop in velocity on the fastball means a less effective changeup and therefore a less effective pitcher. QED.
Mike
April 24th, 2012
9:15 am
Maddux consistently threw in the low 90’s during his prime, with significantly better command (less than half the BB/9 during his prime) and movement than Jurrjens. The comparisons between JJ and Maddux are not helpful at all, as they are completely different pitchers. We now have the second half of last season, plus all spring plus 4 starts in the regular season to see that something is really wrong with JJ. His velocity is down even from last year’s low, and his horizontal and vertical movement is down. The majors are not for experimenting and figuring things out – that’s what AAA is for, and if JJ needs to get it figured out, he should do it in AAA.
Simplicio
April 24th, 2012
9:19 am
Also, the Braves have had players play through injuries the last couple of years all the while claiming that those players were in good health. For example, Jason Heyward last season. So, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if it turns out that JJ is pitching with a blown-out knee or elbow or something given the total incompetence of the Braves’ medical staff and a clubhouse culture that values players playing through injuries (even if it affects performance).
DetroitBraves
April 24th, 2012
9:21 am
One other thing, the big velocity helps pitchers overcome mistakes. Maddux and Glavine rarely made mistakes. I agree with the premise but there aren’t too many Maddux’s or Glavine’s out there, or even Jaime Moyer’s. Most pitchers need at least a little jump on their #1 if they are going to pitch at the top of a rotation.
msd
April 24th, 2012
9:22 am
last night wtf was fg doing? you get runners on 1st and second no outs. jh steals third. of course jack strikes out. runners on 1 and 3 now with 1 out and he allows jj to hit???? down 3-1 get some runs. pinch hit. no he keeps him in to bunt. brilliant! and now he’s demoted to gb. stupid coach
Trojan
April 24th, 2012
9:22 am
Hanson and JJ both concern me. Hanson’s shoulder issues scare me even with his new delivery. By the way, Hanson’s new delivery seems more painful and unnatural than his original delivery.
Both Hanson and JJ will be demanding larger and larger contracts. Our best hope is for both of them to get healthy enough to be traded for something. Their agents (Boras) will be impossible to deal with.
Trade both of them Braves. Because Boras would not allow them to sign long term anyway.
Simplicio
April 24th, 2012
9:22 am
@Stingbyayellowjacket. Hansen slightly altered his delivery to take pressure off of his shoulder and he’s also using a two-seam fastball this season (in addition to the four seam). I haven’t seen any data concerning how often he’s throwing each pitch, but that could account for the changes you’re seeing.
Rickster
April 24th, 2012
9:25 am
We’ve been asking this question at least since Mark Woehlers (sp?) was a Brave.
DetroitBraves
April 24th, 2012
9:26 am
@Mike, that’s a really good point. You see people talk about Maddux a lot now that he’s retired as if he had pedestrian stuff and got by only because of a big baseball IQ. Simply not true. He did touch the low 90s in his youth (as did Glavine) and he had plus-plus control, a plus change, and plus movement on his fastball. Even when he lost some of his fastball he had the rest. It’s not really fair to compare JJ or really any other pitcher to Greg Maddux.
Dennis
April 24th, 2012
9:29 am
Baseball history is littered with players who lost confidence and never recovered as well as some that overcome and regained their given ability. I tend to believe it is a confidence issue brought on by a number of things. Whether he can recover is open to debate. I believe with time at AAA he can regain some if not all of his abilities. With this being his free agency year, he has cost himself millions of dollars and quite probably that is contibuting to his worsening lack of confidence. As a human being and a long time Braves fan, I hope he can go down, recover his ability and come back to be a part of the staff or go on to another team and have a long and productive career.
Dr. Phil
April 24th, 2012
9:30 am
I think that most Braves’ fans had written off last night before JJ tossed the first pitch. My hope was that Fredi would take JJ out before he put the game out of reach. Demoting him to AAA was a good move for everyone concerned, including JJ. Fredi can’t throw away every fifth game, like he did with Lowe, and expect to be around in Oct.
Jardel
April 24th, 2012
9:33 am
Mark,
I think you’re forgetting something important here. Maddux always threw his fastball at around 86-87mph. If it suddenly dropped to 82mph it would have greatly reduced the effectiveness of the rest of his pitches. This is what has happened to Jair and he will continue to struggle unless he gets his velocity back and/or gains Maddux’s superior control and completely revamps his offspeed pitches to reflect a permanent lack of velocity (not likely).
George Stein
April 24th, 2012
9:34 am
I’m not certain what the expectations were, but his simple metrics never really matched his more advanced ones. Just last year, he only had 5.33 strikeouts per nine innings, which means he was relying heavily on his defense to catch more balls in play (or just walking players or giving up homers). He also was able to strand 81% of runners on base last year. That isn’t happening now.
Fish Bisch
April 24th, 2012
9:35 am
What a Brave New World without JJ. Hansen is next.
phil
April 24th, 2012
9:36 am
I hope he goes down and figures something out. If he does, great. If he doesn’t, then so be it.
We supposedly have this deep reservoir of great pitching. Ok. Let’s see it then.
And by the way, note that the bats are returning to their accustomed slumber. Last night made the third straight game with little to show offensively.
The same problem rearing its ugly head – inconsistency offensively.
ClemsonBrad
April 24th, 2012
9:39 am
I think absolutely the right move to demote him now Mark. I’m with you, it’s not about how hard he throws, but his pitches don’t even have movement right now. He is throwing meatballs over the heart of the plate every pitch….
and I don’t think this is necessarily only about his first four starts this season. This is also considering his TERRIBLE Spring and the 2nd half of last season. I know he was hurt last year, but JJ hasn’t pitched like JJ in about 9 months….
right move to demote him…I like Delgado starting a game right now better then JJ with Hudson coming back…
phil
April 24th, 2012
9:39 am
Anyone criticizing or questioning Maddux as a pitcher is a buffoon.
The man won 350 games. He was an unquestioned master and the best of our generation.
Najeh Davenpoop
April 24th, 2012
9:46 am
Joe Simpson kept talking about his lack of movement. I admit I don’t know a ton about baseball but I was always under the impression that movement depended at least in part on the arm angle. Hopefully this is just a mechanical issue that he can get straightened out with some time in the minors.
Najeh Davenpoop
April 24th, 2012
9:47 am
Totally agree that velocity is not that important, though. Jamie Moyer is collecting Social Security benefits and is still pitching, barely breaking 80 mph on his pitches, because he changes speeds and locates. If you throw your off speed pitches in the 60s, a fastball in the 80s is going to look really fast.
ltejle@gmail.com
April 24th, 2012
9:51 am
I feel badly for JJ but this is the best thing for him & the team. I think it’s all mental, a total lack of confidence and lingering doubts within himself about his knee. Paging Dr. Llewellyn or some other sports psychologist who can help him get his head on straight. I totally agree about the obsession with velocity but mostly it’s just that his pitches are too straight. I hope he works it out for both him and the team.
angel
April 24th, 2012
9:51 am
I heard Dr. D is in town…. She did a heck of a job with TJ. She is the best sports psychologist on TV.
Bob the Blogger
April 24th, 2012
9:53 am
JJ has had a remarkable career to date, with an ERA+ of 115 over 700+ innings. That ERA includes the second half of last year, and this year. He’s not the first MLB player to go into a funk, and he won’t be the last. I can’t help but think he’ll work his way back. I would like to see them turn the radar gun off on his first couple of starts back.
DetroitBraves
April 24th, 2012
9:55 am
@George Stein, yeah he was over his head but his xFIP last year was 4.23, which was playable. This year it is 6.08. Small sample, yes, but that is a big difference.
phil
April 24th, 2012
9:57 am
The radar gun is not the problem. Flat pitches are the problem.
Why are they flat? Perhaps the knee brace is throwing off his mechanics?
Who knows? Isn’t McDowell paid to at least try to help with this, as I’m sure he has tried?
As long as JJ pitches like me in the backyard, his days are numbered.
Heisenberg
April 24th, 2012
10:01 am
It is not so much velocity and movement as it is location and movement. Of which there has not been enough of from JJ. Seriously, I did not think the Braves had the man-sacks to do it. Wonder how the devil will spin this to other teams during free agency? That is what happens when you sign with that baffoon. Had JJ kept his old agent, it is possible he could have already negotiated an extension with Braves. Now he may be looking at a minor league 1 year deal next year.
Curt
April 24th, 2012
10:02 am
These days everyone wants to see the long ball and everyone wants to see the 100MPH fastball. In fact, scouts reject pithers who hit their spots consistently at but never top out more than 90-91 MPH instead favoring someone who can throw the ball 95-100 but can not hit their spots but maybe one out of every 10 pitches. Scouts think a guy who throws hard can be taught to pitch but a guy who can pitch can not be taught to throw hard. In fact, teams go through a lot of hard throwers until they can find the few who can hit their spots on a conistent basis.
I believe that JJ has a a few problems 1) his mechanics have changed since his injuries. It is typical of someone to adjust their delivery to try and not get injured again. In fact this causes more problems in that they do not pitch as well as they used to and they can potentially injure another part of their body 2) His mechanics have changed because he either lost some velocity from the injury or lost some velocity from adjusting wrong from the injury or he just wants to keep up with the Joneses and throw harder. No matter the reason, trying to throw harder messes with the mechanics a pither has spent his life refining and in almost every case, those mechanics are unique to their body. It may even appear that the mechanics are the same but adding 5 mph to a pitch can make you do something very slight that causes you to miss your spots. 3) JJ’s head is messed up due to the injuries, trying to adjust to the injuries, not feeling like he can throw as well as the next guy or even as well as he used to and then everyone telling him something different to try and fix his problems. Pitching is a loney job with a huge amount of stress and some people break down (Wohlers, Ankiel) and never pitch again.
Pitchers ALWAYS pitch better when they are lose and don’t feel the pressure. JJ needs this time at AAA and see if he can relax but also someone needs to get it out of his head that he has to throw hard to pitch and let him find his old mechanics.
George Stein
April 24th, 2012
10:03 am
Totally agree, DetroitBraves. I just think people saw the W-L and ERA and believed he was an ace. I think if he can get any movement on his fastball, he’s be a perfectly suitable back-end of the rotation guy.
Ted Striker
April 24th, 2012
10:04 am
Hopefully JJ will start his next game knowing he is 0-0 for today.
Recall that pitchers, not just hitters sometimes just have to “grind it out.”
One fast ball/curve/change at a time.
Better suggestion. Grind it out AND…have some fun.
Lob one underhanded if it feels good and you think someone is trying to get in your head.
Maybe even channel some Al Hrabosky if you feel frisky.
phil
April 24th, 2012
10:10 am
Ted Striker ground it out in the movie and saved the plane load of people…
except for the ones who killed themselves listening to his tales of woe….
If Ted could do it, JJ can do it.
oldman
April 24th, 2012
10:20 am
They should have traded him in offseason and gotten a solid OF.We have plenty of pitching but need a BOPPER for the OF.
Gwinnett Fred
April 24th, 2012
10:26 am
With his impending free agency & his agent being Boras, he was not in our long term plans anyway. Let’s let some of the kids get their feet wet.
Fredi's Timeclock is Clicking
April 24th, 2012
10:28 am
It seems so obvious that the time clock on FG is clicking and he doesn’t even seem to know it……with Frank Wren obviously not including him in the discussion to send JJ down tells me that Frank is already counting the steps to move FG on out…..and tomorrow would not be soon enough….FG is NO Major League Manager – I am surprised he even knows how to put on his cleats.
angel
April 24th, 2012
10:34 am
Enter your comments here
Dawg Haus
April 24th, 2012
10:37 am
JJ will be fine once he exorcises those demons in AAA. I’m sure he’ll be back and better than ever once he gets back to the bigs.
Pitching Guru
April 24th, 2012
10:42 am
It’s not his velocity folks. It’s the lack of movement – all of his pitches are flat. He has changed his mechanics and delivery (probably a result of his injury) which took movement off his pitches. A stint in the minors may help him get back on track.
extremus
April 24th, 2012
10:44 am
The good thing here is that the Braves wasted little time in addressing what was obviously a serious problem and sent Jurrjens down to get some help. If they hadn’t they would have almost certainly ended up with this year’s version of Derek Lowe or Kenshin Kawakami in their rotation, and yet another in a long list of recent players struggling needlessly week after week at the MLB level to the entire team’s detriment.
I hope JJ can bounce back, both effectiveness and confidence-wise; only time will tell. While his career may now seem to be somewhat in question, at least the Braves, for the time being, have taken a vital step toward ensuring their early season success doesn’t get nullified by a weak link every fifth day.
jd56
April 24th, 2012
10:46 am
Chris Ankiel comes to mind when I think of a pitcher who loses his ability to pitch. Chris pitched in the world series for the Cardinals his rookie year and one year later could not hit the batters box. His career ends up as an outfielder.
Durbin was overused by KC his rookie year and ended up with Tommy John. This happens to many of the players. This is why I stress not screaming for the minor league pitchers to be brought up too soon. There is a huge difference in a pitcher being successful in the minors compared to his learning a pitching philosophy that can carry him into the majors. The major league batters will eat them alive. The batters in the minors swing at anything hoping to be seen and move up. This makes the pitchers look as though they are strike out kings. They come up to the majors and at first because no one has seen him, he might look great. Second time around he is a steak on the grill just waiting. It happens to many and many never make the recovery.
I have watched my son Chad Durbin pitch for years and the years are not the great lives people think they are. The MLB is a business and like any business it is all about Money. No loyalty on any team to any player. Chad works hard, deserves to be where he is. Yes, I see all the haters out there and am smart enough to know that they are just fans who most likely speak before they think also. I have watched this for 17 years now. I have seen parents lose it in the stands, standing up and screaming at fans because they are booing their son. We are parents, they are kids. Yes they choose this career. Yes, my son repeatedly says Dad do not read the blogs. However there are some great bloggers who actually know the game and then you have the bloggers who only know what they read. They are like the fans voting on idol. If the judge did not say somebody was not good, they might never know.
I think the Braves have a shot at a great season. The first in a long time. However fans have to remember that the veteran players are the one;s that will get you to the big payoff. Not the young pitcher who still thinks he has to throw his hardest every time and ends up with dead arm just in time for the race for the pennant. The managers know what they are doing. They are paid to know. The players know when they are not doing what they are paid to do. The pitchers sometimes are not on. It is life. Stand out there and throw at a license plate size spot from 66′6″ and see how many times you paint the corner. Stand and throw at the same spot with someone looking you in the eye.
Go Braves!
K.K.
April 24th, 2012
10:47 am
Frank: Fredi: K.K. now best pitcher in Malaysian Major Leagues and ready to come help Braves again.
Mixer
April 24th, 2012
10:47 am
It’s like that line from Moneyball: “No one knows when you can’t play the boy’s game anymore. It could be at 21 or 40 but we’re all told”.
Heisenberg
April 24th, 2012
10:48 am
jd56, the name is Rick Ankiel
journalist jimmy smith
April 24th, 2012
10:57 am
could it be his toes? toes are not to be trifled with.
journalist jimmy smith
April 24th, 2012
11:00 am
if it is jair’s toes that have gone bad that could be the final straw before this team finally hires a toe man. a good toe man would keep all toes healthy and that would help pitchers retain movement on their pitches. jimmy smith has not been doing a lot of journalism lately but this journalist knows the importance of toes in baseball and jimmy smith knows that toes are not to be trifled with.
glove51
April 24th, 2012
11:06 am
Mark, no one but JJ knows for sure if he is injured in some way. His pitching certainly suggests there is something physically wrong with him. I have it on fairly good authority that he basically has no cartilage left in his knee due to a degenerative condition.
Be that as it may, the Braves can NOT put him on the disabled list if he says he isn’t hurt.
coach13
April 24th, 2012
11:08 am
THe low 90’s?? 93 is considered low 90’s and Maddux nor Glavine every threw 93 let alone consistently. They couldn’t throw that with a running start. If for some reason you are right that fact is that Glavine and Maddux both made HOF careers out of not throwing in the low 90’s but rather hittings spots and changing speeds. JJ is not a fastball pitcher, never was. He used it to keep people off of his changeup and had/has to rely on locating his pitches.
As Leo Mazzone says, it has less to do with what pitch you throw than where you throw it.
typical know it all
April 24th, 2012
11:10 am
I just love the random reasons JJ is struggling. No one really knows. I really like the blogger that blamed the Braves medical staff. LOL
P Rose
April 24th, 2012
11:10 am
Beauvighn: “send Delgado to AAA along with him”??! I guess Delgado’s last start was the first Braves game you watched this season. In his first two outings, Delgado was a beast. Unlike JJ, who pouts, Delgado keeps his chin up. You can’t tell the score by his facial expression. You gotta love this kid.
JJ does seem to suffer from a lack of confidence and a defeatist attitude when things go wrong. But what alrmed me last night wasn’t so much his location, as Joe Simpson kept harping on, and as Bradley echoed here, or his lack of velocity, which is the main thrust of Bradley’s article. What was unacceptable last night was the complete and total lack of any movement on the ball at all. JJ threw the ball right down the middle of the plate, straight as an arrow. He’ll be hammered in AAA pitching like that. Even Livan Hernandez, our mop-up guy, came in and made the ball move on the hitters. JJ is not our ace anymore; he isn’t even a AAA pitcher anymore, much less a big-leaguer. I hope he figures it out, but thank goodness for the team’s depth of starters.
P Rose
April 24th, 2012
11:10 am
Beauvighn: “send Delgado to AAA along with him”??! I guess Delgado’s last start was the first Braves game you watched this season. In his first two outings, Delgado was a beast. Unlike JJ, who pouts, Delgado keeps his chin up. You can’t tell the score by his facial expression. You gotta love this kid.
JJ does seem to suffer from a lack of confidence and a defeatist attitude when things go wrong. But what alrmed me last night wasn’t so much his location, as Joe Simpson kept harping on, and as Bradley echoed here, or his lack of velocity, which is the main thrust of Bradley’s article. What was unacceptable last night was the complete and total lack of any movement on the ball at all. JJ threw the ball right down the middle of the plate, straight as an arrow. He’ll be hammered even in AAA pitching like that. Even Livan Hernandez, our mop-up guy, came in and made the ball move on the hitters. JJ is not our ace anymore; he isn’t even a AAA pitcher anymore, much less a big-leaguer. I hope he figures it out, but thank goodness for the team’s depth of starters.