Why the Julio Jones trade made – and still makes – sense
We haven't yet seen the best of Julio Jones, but this touchdown was a hint. (AP photo)
Flowery Branch – Reaction to the Falcons’ leap of 21 slots to grab Julio Jones last April was swift and damning, and the criticism has regained traction as the team approaches the 2012 draft without a first-round pick. Now as then, the argument against the move can be stated this way: “You can’t trade five picks for a wide receiver.”
And here’s where I make like Michael Corleone in “The Godfather” when his older (and dumber) brother Sonny insists you can’t shoot a New York City police captain even if he is in cahoots with the knife-wielding Sollozzo. Patiently Michael lays out the reasons why, just this once, you could. Here’s where I tell you why dealing for Julio Jones was, contrary to popular belief, altogether right and proper.
1. Because the Falcons didn’t want just “a” wide receiver. General manager Thomas Dimitroff coveted either A.J. Green of Georgia, taken by Cincinnati with the fourth overall pick, or Jones of Alabama, plucked by the Falcons two spots later. “Those two wide receivers are the kind that only come along every few years,” Dimitroff said this week, which suggested he doesn’t see one as good in the 2012 draft class. (Asked if he did, he declined to answer.)
The belief in some circles was that Jones is a talent on the order of Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald, often identified as the NFL’s finest receiver. Of Jones, Dimitroff said pointedly: “He’s without diva-like qualities” — an appraisal that wouldn’t apply to many top-shelf wideouts.
2. Because Jones was as good as advertised. He missed three games because of injury, but caught 54 passes for 949 yards and eight touchdowns. In one half against Indianapolis, Jones made two astonishing plays — a diving end-zone catch between defenders so improbable it was first adjudged incomplete and an 80-yard runaway on a simple slant — that validated the Falcons’ exalted appraisal.
Dimitroff on Jones’ rookie season: “It was very good and encouraging with much upside. If he hadn’t been hurt, he’d have had 1,200 or 1,300 yards.”
3. Because this wasn’t a move just for 2011. Roddy White turned 30 in November. The Falcons saw in Jones a wideout who would first serve as 1A to White before becoming No. 1 himself. If Jones helped win a Super Bowl as rookie, great — but he didn’t come with an expiration date of Feb. 5, 2012.
The Falcons’ offense did improve statistically: From 16th-best in total offense in both 2009 and 2010, it was 10th-best last season. Still, this sleek offense didn’t manage a point in its playoff loss against New York on a day when Jones had seven catches for 64 meager yards. But surely new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter will feel a need to incorporate Jones more fully.
4. Because not trading for Jones wouldn’t necessarily have yielded a defensive upgrade. Consensus held that the Falcons had to bolster their D in the 2011 draft. Had they kept the 27th overall pick, they wouldn’t have spent it on a defensive end. Said Dimitroff: “All the ones we liked were gone.”
Six defensive ends were taken in the first 24 selections. (Cameron Jordan, who went to New Orleans at No. 24, started 15 games as a rookie but managed only one sack.) With an eye toward defensive ends, the Falcons had sought to move up between the 15th and 20th pick — but possible partner Jacksonville traded up to No. 10 and took quarterback Blaine Gabbert.
Had the Falcons kept the other two 2011 picks they sent to Cleveland — the draft’s 59th and 124th overall — and used them on defenders, there’s a chance neither might have become more than a rotational player. There was never a chance Jones wouldn’t start Game 1 of Year 1.
5. Because the pain of not having a first-round (or a fourth-round) choice in 2012 is eased by knowing Jones is under contract. NFL scouts value the draft pick above all else. Still, Dimitroff balked at a suggestion that in making the Jones trade he’d gone against his nature. “My background is in scouting,” he said. “But I am a GM.”
As such, he looked hard at his roster and made this determination: “We already had [defensive] guys who were better than those we were going to get in the draft. We determined that this was the time, more than any other, to make a bold move.”
Conclusion: The trade for Jones shouldn’t be viewed so much one player for five players but one singular talent over five draft picks — none of which was guaranteed to contribute immediately, three of which wouldn’t fall in the first 50 of their respective drafts. It was a heavy cost, but to secure this particular player it wasn’t outrageous.
Asked if he’d do the Julio Jones deal again, Dimitroff said: “Categorically, yes.” And just for the record, Capt. McCluskey and Sollozzo wound up dead. Michael Corleone shot them.
By Mark Bradley
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148 comments Add your comment
Mike
April 20th, 2012
2:34 pm
I think this was a good move for the Falcons. I think TD is right. Odds are, Jones would out contribute anything they could have gotten for those picks. I honestly didnt like it at the time, but looking back…he was right. All the top D lineman would have been taken, so what were they supposed to do? Punt on the draft and hope for this year? Gather some more special teamers and hopefully some decent backups?
You also have to ask how much of the defensive woes were the players and how much was the coaching? Van Gorder is a heck of a college DC, but his Falcon defense more often resembled the defense under his much maligned successor at UGA, Willie Martinez. They never could manufacture a pass rush, sometimes even with a blitz, and good teams just picked them apart 5-10 yards at a time. How do you lack a pass rush when you’ve got Abraham and Edwards at the ends?
I think most will see that our 2012 draft was in the coaching staff. Near as I can tell, especially at DC, the new staff is a complete upgrade. The Falcons have talent all over the place, but just never could get its full potential out on the field.
Kerryb
April 20th, 2012
2:35 pm
JSS
April 20th, 2012
2:32 pm
“After that as OC slants to that receiver, would have been in every game plan going forward on a regular basis.”
They tried (the slant), and every team except for the Carolina Panthers adjusted their coverages to account for it. Shoot, the third play against Houston was a variation of the play and Ryan whiffed on it! Houston came with pressure packages from every direction from that series onward. NFL, everyone except the Falcons and Juan Castilla (Philly) makes adjustments…
_________________________________________________________________
Thank goodness the old OC is gone because I agree that he had trouble making adjustments. That always surprised me knowing that Mularkey had been in the league for years. Lets see what happens with a knew OC they say likes to open up the offense and Ryan having a whole off season with Jones to work on timing.
Ivan
April 20th, 2012
2:35 pm
” But surely new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter will feel a need to incorporate Jones more fully”
Which will be extremely difficult considering how awfully weak this O-Line is. Mainly because there are no draft picks to strengthen it.
Kerryb
April 20th, 2012
2:41 pm
The Falcons still have 6 picks in this draft and this draft is pretty deep with 69 Juniors coming out early. There will be a some good players left #55 and #84. Quit whining about pick #22. Julio will be good enough to be worth last years 1st round pick and this years.
Jfreak13713
April 20th, 2012
2:43 pm
The same people who are complaining now about not having a late 1st round pick are probably the same ones who were complaining two years ago about the Falcons not have a deep threat! We got a very good and maybe if he stays healthy a great WR for some late rounds picks that probably wouldn’t have produced even 1 starter. This isn’t fantasy football guys! If you want to get great talent you have to PAY for that talent. I known that seems strange in our culture where so many believe if they want they get but in the real world you have to PAY for things of VALUE!
Good trade not matter what but great trade if Jones stays healthy!
JSS
April 20th, 2012
2:44 pm
@ Kerryb…
I just think you guys are going to be stunned how similar the production is going to be if they are shown to be incapable of blocking 5 on 4 early in the pre-season. I really wish the Baltimore game was the 2nd game (the traditional dress rehearsal), because like the Patriots game in 2010, that is when you see if a team has any clue.
Why the Julio Jones trade made – and still makes – sense | football-feed.com
April 20th, 2012
3:10 pm
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Jonklovesbirdy
April 20th, 2012
3:47 pm
I wouldn’t give Julio for the world you know..For the next decade he is still gonna be around and better year after year, what am i talking about? I don’t even know.
oneofeach4me
April 20th, 2012
4:22 pm
The way I see it, opinions are like behind holes, everyone’s got one. That said, it made total sense to me because we need a “franchise” player and that’s been one of our major issues for YEARS. We always trade and sign newbies trying to have an instant championship team instead of building one up over a number of seasons. We refused to take risks, either by keeping what we had, or jumping bones are the great ones who showed potential that may cost us a little and garner criticizism. Plus, every time he JJ played… I was entertained.
GT
April 20th, 2012
4:28 pm
third!
WnE
April 20th, 2012
4:34 pm
re:
The same people who are complaining now about not having a late 1st round pick are probably the same ones who were complaining two years ago about the Falcons not have a deep threat! We got a very good and maybe if he stays healthy a great WR for some late rounds picks that probably wouldn’t have produced even 1 starter. This isn’t fantasy football guys! If you want to get great talent you have to PAY for that talent. I known that seems strange in our culture where so many believe if they want they get but in the real world you have to PAY for things of VALUE!
Good trade not matter what but great trade if Jones stays healthy!
____________
Lack of a deep threat?
Explain how former Falcon Laurent Robinson (sp?) a 3rd round draft pick became a deep threat for the Cowboys.
The right team.
A decent QB that CAN throw deep.
An OC committed to stretching Defenses.
An OL that can pass block.
Dallas’ problem is that their secondary is the worst in the NFL.
John
April 20th, 2012
4:34 pm
I think Im like everyone else when I say Im just tired of beating this topic to death. One NFL network analyst said it best “Is there a receiver in this draft you’d rather have over Julio Jones?…No.”
WnE
April 20th, 2012
4:42 pm
The best Teams that have consistency (in the NFL that means 3-5 yr. runs), they stockpile draft picks and strengthen both LoS.
Teams like Pittsburgh & New England and the NY Giants keep their Draft picks for the most part (yeah I know about the Eli Deal, but he’s franchise QB not a WR), and they get great value and many Starters out of their 2nd thru 4th round draft picks.
NFL teams are built with 1st thru 4th round draft choices.
The ONLY way Jones is a good draft pick is if you do like Cincy and stay pat and he falls to your team (like A.J Green did), but you don’t trade that much for a WR, especially in Atlanta that like the power Run game 1st and then likes the TE 2nd.
Our franchise is WEAK on both LoS, this is the reason for the early playoff exits.
Teams with much lesser WRs go much deeper in the playoffs than do the Falcons because of this.
Working for the Weekend « Mostly College Football Blog
April 20th, 2012
4:44 pm
[...] Falcons don’t pick until the 2nd-round, due to the Julio Jones pick last year (I agree with AJC’s Mark Bradley: still a great move). Two things the Falcons desperately need: 1.) Help on the DL and Secondary, and 2.) Help on the [...]
duronimo
April 20th, 2012
5:09 pm
Jones is a huge talent. There will be drops and there will be freaky completions. An average reciever wouldn’t even be in position to try for those catches.
windu
April 20th, 2012
5:14 pm
Julio is a beast, okay, I get it. Rare, singular, talent.
Now then, how much has having a beast named Andre Johnson helped the Texans? He’s been a beast for 9 years. Until last season, the Texans never made the playoffs. They finally made the playoffs in 2011 — with Johnson hurt and missing 6 games! So the stud WR clearly was not the X factor. No WR is worth what we traded. Period.
Jim
April 20th, 2012
5:20 pm
I’m sold on Julio. The draft is at times overrated. Julio is a game changer.
John
April 20th, 2012
5:35 pm
Windu, when the Texans drafted Johnson they were filth. That’s probably putting it mildly, but having him has allowed them to draft and go after free agents in other areas to build the team.
Dirtybirdsin12
April 20th, 2012
5:40 pm
Who do you think we would get with our 1st round pick this year had we not made the trade? Maybe another Spoon or Roddy. I’d say, based on watching the Falcons’ draft every year since I was 12, that we’d more likely end up with another Peria Jerry, Sam Baker, Michael Jenkins, TJ Duckett, Jamaal Anderson, Michael Booker, or Devin Bush. Below average to mediocre. Draft picks are a crap shoot. Every scout pumps up players to their respective employers so that they can be the guy who found the “next Tom Brady.” The Falcons got a guy who is about as close to a can’t miss prospect as you can find. I personally would much rather have one elite weapon than five gambles. Three of those five picks wouldn’t have lasted more than a season or two, and the other two would be very average starters or solid backups. Do you really think that we would have drafted anyone better than Ray Edwards? Anyone who is knocking Julio’s rookie season obviously did not watch the games. It took Roddy three years to make any kind of impact. Julio is mediocre at worst, the other picks would have been mediocre at best. Quit hating!
Dirtybirdsin12
April 20th, 2012
5:42 pm
Don’t ignore the fact that the Falcons would have been lucky to sniff the playoffs last season without Julio’s impact.
windu
April 20th, 2012
5:44 pm
When Matthew Stafford was hurt, Calvin Johnson was useless.
Stafford comes back, Johnson is a top 5 WR.
When the Panthers started Clausen, Steve Smith was useless.
Newton comes in, Smith is again a top 5 WR.
With Kurt Warner, Fitzgerald was a top 5 WR.
Since Kurt left, Fitzgerald is useless.
Do you guys see a pattern? You don’t spend QB money on a WR!!!!
Nativebird
April 20th, 2012
5:58 pm
There’s only one problem with your analysis. Actual history. Actual history says otherwise if your goal is to go deep into the playoffs and win a superbowl. Your analysis fits if your goal is to make splash drafts and then defend how brilliant it was. In EITHER case….this team made NO improvement towards their “stated” goal. Which brings us to the REAL question….doesn’t it.
Topper667
April 20th, 2012
6:07 pm
Why does everyone say we gave up 5 picks for Julio? We traded number 1’s, and we recieved a “premium” 1 for last year. Down to 4 picks. So we gave up last years 59th and 124th picks and a 1st and 4th this year. By trading for Julio, the Falcons were saying we are getting a low (21st or later)pick in the first this year. They were correct. I kinda think that the 59th last and a low first rounder this year equals out. The 124th of last year and the 4th round of this year were the premiums of the trade, IMHO. How will those players that were avaiable turn out in three or four years? Without injury, I have a good feeling about Julio.
Whopper Dawg
April 20th, 2012
7:20 pm
That’s it?
The reason was we liked him and we wouldn’t have gotten anybody good anyway with the five picks??
According to that logic, we should package everyone of our picks this year and next year’s 1 and 2 and move up in this year’s draft to get the next guy we like.
That is weak, weak sauce. The fact if TD thought he was the missing piece, that is the ONLY reason you would spend the much draft cache on a WR for goodness sake. Problem was and is, he was the missing piece, we have many missing pieces and TD was too full of himself and too ignorant of the status of his team to make the right call. His mentor Belichick, when approached by TD for advice, told him not to do it. Belichick, you know the guys with all the rings. TD did it anyway.
Now I am not too fond of TD’s drafting abilities or his assessment of talent while drafting for the Falcons, he always reaches and tries to prove he is the smartest guy in the room (in the league). But I have to believe he could come up with more than one starter from 2 1s, a 2 and 2 4s. If he can’t, and I find the argument that he can’t as support of the Jones deal amazing, then he needs to hit the bricks.
Any wager on how many starters the magical TD will glean out of this year’s draft?? I’ll go ahead and give you my number. None.
Fire Dimitroff Now!!!
April 20th, 2012
8:07 pm
What a stupid trade. Tommy needs to go back to scouting and leave the deal making to others.
Fire Dimitroff Now!!!
April 20th, 2012
8:12 pm
Dimitroff is developing a really poor draft and trading history. I seriously believe I cold have done better in the last 4 years. Why isn’t this guy under the gun?
'A' wide reciever
April 20th, 2012
8:24 pm
Is Thomas Dimitroff finally gonna throw that
‘explosive offense’
`………….. …………` on the field this year ?
'A' wide reciever
April 20th, 2012
8:36 pm
Dimitroff as GM has four seasons under his watch,
11-5
9-7
13-3
10-6
…………not bad for a veggie.
rick
April 20th, 2012
9:13 pm
“Fire Dimitroff Now”, you would make a great “butt squeeze sample” for the laboratory….
Paul
April 20th, 2012
9:46 pm
Mark,
Two corrections to your article needed. First, AJ Green was drafted at number 4, two spots ahead Julio, not one. Second, the Jaguars did not draft a DE at 10, they drafted Blaine Gabbert.
I agree with your analysis. I love Julio and the trade was worth it. Lets get the OL fixed and we will be rolling.
a reasonable person
April 20th, 2012
9:52 pm
I’m so glad to see the Falcons have 4 winning seasons
in-a-row,
thanks to the GM.
an unreasonable person
April 20th, 2012
9:55 pm
A.J. Green “finally” had a season with over 1,000 yards recieving.
Julio is tougher.
Larry
April 20th, 2012
10:06 pm
Julio is a good receiver. He will never be a super star with the Falcons. for the simple reason that they gave up far too much to get him.
All the apologists in the world can’t make this lousy, losing transaction seem good.
an unreasonable person
April 20th, 2012
10:19 pm
you mean 5 draft choices is far too much?
Dirtybirdsin12
April 21st, 2012
4:56 am
Just so you guys know, the majority of the people who bash the trade are Georgia fans who either consciously or sub-consciously never would have given the move a chance for three main reasons:
A. It wasn’t A.J. (remember the uproar when Roddy White was picked in lieu of Reggie Brown?)
B. They have a deep-seeded jealousy of all of the college football programs they wish they could be, Bama, Florida, Ohio State, USC, etc.
C. They fear that a successful Falcons franchise will weaken their fan base because most people become Georgia fans because the Falcons have never been dependable and Georgia beats Georgia Tech more often than not. They were driven towards the most reliable product. The fact that Atlanta has better football is taken as blasphemy by a bulldog, but it is undeniable.
Gamer
April 21st, 2012
8:36 am
MATT RYAN’S ARM STRENGTH WILL DETERMINE HOW GREAT A RECEIVER JULIO JONES REALLY IS COMPARED TO NFL’S ALL-TIME GREAT RECEIVERS…
HOPEFULLY, RYAN UNDERSTAND THE DYNAMICS OF JULIO’S ABILITIES BY WORKING ON DEVELOPING HIS BODY STENGTH AND IMPROVING HIS DECISION-MAKING WITH A QUICK RELEASE.
Edward
April 21st, 2012
10:13 am
I understand your analysis but it wasn’t a guarantee Julio Jones would contribute either. I still feel the Falcons gave up too much.
YourPoliticalAnimal
April 21st, 2012
10:30 am
The problem with your very insightful analysis is just that; it was very logical, rational, and insightful…which is the very antithesis of how the average hot dog-eating, beer-chugging, chip-and-dip eating sports fan “thinks.” The average sports fan isn’t gonna take the time to conduct your SWOT analysis (Strengths/Weaknesses/Opportunities/Threats)…and that’s too bad because your analysis, including the Godfather analogy, is what we all need…
Steve B
April 21st, 2012
11:18 am
The Falcons need someone who can throw deep, Jones outruns the ball.
Mikey
April 21st, 2012
11:47 am
I’m elated to have JJ on OUR team. There is a good chance that with his combination of talent , experience and values, he will be an Andre Johnson type receiver that can and does win games for you even though he doesn’t handle the ball on every play (like a center or a quarterback). The value in these exceptional receivers is their ability to jump at the ball and take it away from tight double and triple coverage when it counts (e.g. in the end zone in the last 30 seconds).
This can come on a 10 yard play in the red zone or on a 60 yard play that looks even more spectacular. Oh, yes, they manage to rack up over a 1000 yards per season too but the value of that pales by comparison to their ability to turn an NFL LOSS into an NFL WIN REAL QUICK!
We saw examples of this last year… the end zone reach over double coverage to get HIS hands on the ball occurred twice. I have no doubt that he will learn to come down with most of these… he was in position, he had his eye on the ball and he had the rare athleticism to outleap everyone else with a perfectly timed grab attempt. Very few players can be counted on to accomplish this… JJ sure can! He will like be an elite impact player and he will be fun to watch as his career unfolds. I look forward to the excitement of watching him much more than watching four or five substitute players.
vesaversa
April 21st, 2012
12:23 pm
With out question the Julio Jones acquisition was worth the trades off that the Falcons had to give up for him. I beleive the man have the potential to become a beast .
Falcon James
April 21st, 2012
1:42 pm
I just remember when Julio came out on the field in Preseason last year. I couldnt get enough of watching him play. All I could remember is “this guy is fast”. He is not just so so fast, He is real fast. I agree with Mr. Marks assessment of the trade.
timothy
April 21st, 2012
8:58 pm
he got julio jones because he knew roddy white needed a big name receiver to help him it wasn’t going to be jenkins and douglas . torrey smith probably wasnt going to be their when they draft watching the falcons go 13 and 3 two years ago it was boring they ranned the ball so much it was boring and finnaly they get somebody to help roddy white and who can stretch the field and be fun to watch . the only thing they have to do is get in the playoffs and catch a hot steak hmm . just like the packers,giants, the patriots had the worst defense and was still in the biggest game of the year so u can’t say that the falcons can’t get to a superbowl with their defense . the playoffs are about hot streaks
Mora less Petrino
April 21st, 2012
11:53 pm
Getting Julio was a good move. Would love to see the Birds figure out a way to go back to Bama and get Trent Richardson and a few of their defensive stars.
BobDawg
April 22nd, 2012
10:02 pm
I keep hearing Dan Reeves say he never drafted a WR in the first round because they take soooo long to develop in the NFL… Like TD said… if Julio doesn’t get injured… dude gets around 1200 to 1,300 yards… He is going to be even better in the coming years…
Just the facts
April 23rd, 2012
8:14 am
More Less Petrino, aint gonna happen. Trent aint coming. If the Falcons by some act of God got Trent, then I will become a falcon fan.
Old Dawg
April 24th, 2012
2:54 pm
And Dimitroff isn’t in exile in Sicily for his audacious trade and pick!
bamabelle2000
April 26th, 2012
10:45 am
Some of the comments by Falcons fans shows how clueless some of you are about football. Julio Jones is a great wide receiver and he played his butt off in Tuscaloosa and he NEVER took a play off to the idiot who said that. It was not his fault that the Falcons defense sux, maybe if was your ex defensive coordinator’s fault.