Why the Julio Jones trade made – and still makes – sense
We haven't yet seen the best of Julio Jones, but this touchdown was a hint. (AP photo)
Flowery Branch – Reaction to the Falcons’ leap of 21 slots to grab Julio Jones last April was swift and damning, and the criticism has regained traction as the team approaches the 2012 draft without a first-round pick. Now as then, the argument against the move can be stated this way: “You can’t trade five picks for a wide receiver.”
And here’s where I make like Michael Corleone in “The Godfather” when his older (and dumber) brother Sonny insists you can’t shoot a New York City police captain even if he is in cahoots with the knife-wielding Sollozzo. Patiently Michael lays out the reasons why, just this once, you could. Here’s where I tell you why dealing for Julio Jones was, contrary to popular belief, altogether right and proper.
1. Because the Falcons didn’t want just “a” wide receiver. General manager Thomas Dimitroff coveted either A.J. Green of Georgia, taken by Cincinnati with the fourth overall pick, or Jones of Alabama, plucked by the Falcons two spots later. “Those two wide receivers are the kind that only come along every few years,” Dimitroff said this week, which suggested he doesn’t see one as good in the 2012 draft class. (Asked if he did, he declined to answer.)
The belief in some circles was that Jones is a talent on the order of Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald, often identified as the NFL’s finest receiver. Of Jones, Dimitroff said pointedly: “He’s without diva-like qualities” — an appraisal that wouldn’t apply to many top-shelf wideouts.
2. Because Jones was as good as advertised. He missed three games because of injury, but caught 54 passes for 949 yards and eight touchdowns. In one half against Indianapolis, Jones made two astonishing plays — a diving end-zone catch between defenders so improbable it was first adjudged incomplete and an 80-yard runaway on a simple slant — that validated the Falcons’ exalted appraisal.
Dimitroff on Jones’ rookie season: “It was very good and encouraging with much upside. If he hadn’t been hurt, he’d have had 1,200 or 1,300 yards.”
3. Because this wasn’t a move just for 2011. Roddy White turned 30 in November. The Falcons saw in Jones a wideout who would first serve as 1A to White before becoming No. 1 himself. If Jones helped win a Super Bowl as rookie, great — but he didn’t come with an expiration date of Feb. 5, 2012.
The Falcons’ offense did improve statistically: From 16th-best in total offense in both 2009 and 2010, it was 10th-best last season. Still, this sleek offense didn’t manage a point in its playoff loss against New York on a day when Jones had seven catches for 64 meager yards. But surely new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter will feel a need to incorporate Jones more fully.
4. Because not trading for Jones wouldn’t necessarily have yielded a defensive upgrade. Consensus held that the Falcons had to bolster their D in the 2011 draft. Had they kept the 27th overall pick, they wouldn’t have spent it on a defensive end. Said Dimitroff: “All the ones we liked were gone.”
Six defensive ends were taken in the first 24 selections. (Cameron Jordan, who went to New Orleans at No. 24, started 15 games as a rookie but managed only one sack.) With an eye toward defensive ends, the Falcons had sought to move up between the 15th and 20th pick — but possible partner Jacksonville traded up to No. 10 and took quarterback Blaine Gabbert.
Had the Falcons kept the other two 2011 picks they sent to Cleveland — the draft’s 59th and 124th overall — and used them on defenders, there’s a chance neither might have become more than a rotational player. There was never a chance Jones wouldn’t start Game 1 of Year 1.
5. Because the pain of not having a first-round (or a fourth-round) choice in 2012 is eased by knowing Jones is under contract. NFL scouts value the draft pick above all else. Still, Dimitroff balked at a suggestion that in making the Jones trade he’d gone against his nature. “My background is in scouting,” he said. “But I am a GM.”
As such, he looked hard at his roster and made this determination: “We already had [defensive] guys who were better than those we were going to get in the draft. We determined that this was the time, more than any other, to make a bold move.”
Conclusion: The trade for Jones shouldn’t be viewed so much one player for five players but one singular talent over five draft picks — none of which was guaranteed to contribute immediately, three of which wouldn’t fall in the first 50 of their respective drafts. It was a heavy cost, but to secure this particular player it wasn’t outrageous.
Asked if he’d do the Julio Jones deal again, Dimitroff said: “Categorically, yes.” And just for the record, Capt. McCluskey and Sollozzo wound up dead. Michael Corleone shot them.
By Mark Bradley
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148 comments Add your comment
ClemsonBrad
April 20th, 2012
10:30 am
Completely agree Mark. Very risky, but worth the risk….and I said it last year…I rather see our team be risky and take initiative to make us much better then just sit back and watch everyone else make moves.
jay
April 20th, 2012
10:33 am
So were AJ Green, and Torrrey Smith and Randall Cobb……
And? The only that even compares is AJ. Torrey Smith is a good deep route runner, but isn’t in the same class as Julio.
Hillbilly D
April 20th, 2012
10:42 am
If you can’t protect your QB, it doesn’t matter if your receivers are John Mackey, Don Hutson and Jerry Rice.
Falcons 4 Real
April 20th, 2012
10:53 am
Great commentary MB, I couldn’t agree more. WRs like Green and Julio only come along every few years and it was the right time to make the move. As TD stated the #27 and #22 picks would have yielded only a spot player anyway and JJ is a gamebreaker, just ask Carolina. The fan faithful are sold on the trade as well, there were a lot of #11 jerseys worn on Sundays last year and I’m sure there will be plenty more this year.
Painful truth
April 20th, 2012
11:19 am
Falcons 4 Real,
Where was that game breaker vs the Saints, The Packers, The Giants, or the Bears? Hell, Green Bays pass defense was HORRIBLE!!! Where was he in those games when he was NEEDED????
Eric
April 20th, 2012
11:26 am
Elite WRs come around every year.
2005: Roddy White, Vincent Jackson (61st pick).
2006: Greg Jennings (52nd pick).
2007: Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe.
2008: Desean Jackson (49th pick).
2009: Kenny Britt, Jeremy Maclin.
2010: Dez Bryant
2011: AJ Green, Julio Jones.
This year it will probably be Justin Blackmon, maybe Michael Floyd. Greg Childs might surprise some people is he’s fully recovered from his knee injury.
JSS
April 20th, 2012
11:28 am
The Gospel of Hillbilly since 2008!
atlvol55
April 20th, 2012
11:29 am
1. Great article Bradley
2. While I do like you article, I still disagree on the pick. WRs don’t win you Super Bowls; QBs and DL’s do.
3. The Falcons thinking is that they have an average QB in Ryan and load him up with talented position players. While certainly a logical idea, I just don’t think it works that way.
4. I hope I am dead wrong on this, but I just don’t think Ryan will every be an elite …even top 10 NFL QB. If that prediction holds true, it doesn’t matter how many great WR and RB’s you have. Your only going to win a Super Bowl with an elite defensive line that can rush the QB like the Giants.
windu
April 20th, 2012
11:30 am
2 things can be true: Julio is awesome, and The Falcons overpaid. Supply and demand. Julio’s just isn’t that rare. Suitable replacements could be had for much less. Receivers are like a set of tires.
Victor Cruz – undrafted
Torrey Smith – 2nd rd
Mike Wallace 3rd rd
Marques Colston – 7th rd
Vincent Jackson -2nd rd
Steve Smith – 3rd rd
The Saints receivers ought to show you that if you have the right QB and scheme, a serviceable, affordable set will do.
Eric
April 20th, 2012
11:30 am
Also, I’m not entirely sold that the drop-off between Julio and T. Smith or Titus Young is worth the bounty we gave up. Again, noting how many upcoming needs the Falcons have. Michael Turner is washed up. The O-line, especially LT, needs a major upgrade. The secondary is average at best, and now we have major questions at linebacker. Gonzalez is retiring without much behind him. And, biggest need of all – DE.
JSS
April 20th, 2012
11:35 am
There is no such thing as a “singular” talent in the NFL. There are exceptional talents indeed, but not singular. Jones cost a team with deep needs (which were masked in some eyes) from addressing their greater areas of weakness. So when I point out where other teams acquired “real” depth while the Falcons continued to bale water out of a leaking ship, don’t have a hissy when the Dimitroff keeps you from solidifying and actually winning a playoff game… Tick tock you’re not on the clock…
Dawgdad (The Original)
April 20th, 2012
11:36 am
The kid from GT that plays for the Lions is the best receiver, I’ll take him over Larry Fitzgerald, although Fitzgerald is great. Julio is better than average, but not in their league. A.J. Green is better than Julio.
Don’t agree Mark.
jay
April 20th, 2012
11:38 am
2005: Roddy White(BORDER LINE HEAD CASE), Vincent Jackson (HEAD CASE)(61st pick).
2006: Greg Jennings (LUCK)(52nd pick).
2007: Calvin Johnson(WENT NUMBER 1 in DRAFT), Dwayne Bowe.
2008: Desean Jackson (HEAD CASE, RUNS ONE ROUTE) (49th pick).
2009: Kenny Britt(HEAD CASE), Jeremy Maclin(NO WHERE NEAR ELITE).
2010: Dez Bryant(HEAD CASE)
2011: AJ Green(WILL BE ELITE w/o DRAMA), Julio Jones(WILL BE ELITE w/o DRAMA).
chalkdawg4
April 20th, 2012
11:38 am
Arthur Blank to star as Depot Corleone in Godfather IV. Mike Smith as “Smitty the enforcer” Any other character ideas?
jay
April 20th, 2012
11:40 am
actually Calvin was selected number 2 overall. The point is we traded picks for a great talent instead of having a terrible sucky season in order to get a great talent.
elroy
April 20th, 2012
11:42 am
what doesn’t make sense: mark bradley being employed by the AJC. one of worst columnist in the country
jay
April 20th, 2012
11:44 am
OMG, give me a break with all this deep needs crap. Teams with deep needs are picking at the top of the draft. All the other teams in the league will always ‘need’ because there is a salary cap. there are no Yankees or Angels in the NFL. The Patriots needed defense and made it to the SuperBowl, the Giants needed all kinds of crap and won the Super Bowl.
GTBob
April 20th, 2012
11:46 am
Julio will be a great receiver for a long time. That being said, no receiver is worth what we gave for him and he only improved our offense a small amount at most. I will enjoy having him on the team but I still think the deal was a pretty obvious dumb move.
Big Daddy
April 20th, 2012
12:01 pm
we love jones good hands
Ted Striker
April 20th, 2012
12:07 pm
This was a fine fine article. Thank you for the excellent read.
Milburn Drysdale
April 20th, 2012
12:18 pm
Always thought that AJ Green was faster, but was pleasantly surprised at the athleticism of Julio, who will be one of the best WR in the league very soon.
Time
April 20th, 2012
12:33 pm
The people that don’t like this trade are just plain wrong. Jones is a elite, game changer of a receiver. Roddy White, a perennial All-Pro is now our #2 receiver in reality if not on the depth chart. I see people lining up lists of receivers they’re calling elite that came later in the draft. As if there aren’t going to be any potential elite DL later in the draft.
The most important reason that you make this deal. Because if you’re the Falcons, with a GM with a proven record of drafting better than most late in the draft, you make it because you can. Much the same as in my fantasy league, where I always overpay for truly elite talent, and people question the trades….I do it because I can, I do it because I know I can recoup whatever I’ve lost in a offer later.
In fact, I hope they trade away next years #1 and whatever other picks needs be thrown in to move up to get the RB from Bama. Turner is losing a step, time to bring in his eventual replacement.
Milburn Drysdale
April 20th, 2012
12:43 pm
Elroy….what is your beef with MB? You obviouslly were not around when we had a guy named Terrence Moore. Bradley is the best this paper has had in a long time.
hrn
April 20th, 2012
12:52 pm
julio was great last year and will be great for the long term if you have a problem with what the falcons did goodbye jump off our bandwagon we dont need you fake fans being a fake gm leave that to the professionals
Milburn Drysdale
April 20th, 2012
12:54 pm
Time….if you are refering to Trent Richardson, he will be going in THIS years draft, not next year. And he will be going early this year.
charles
April 20th, 2012
1:06 pm
Milburn-what Time was saying is that he would give up next year’s first rounder in order to get TR in this year’s draft!
Wilbo
April 20th, 2012
1:06 pm
Hmmmmmmmm, I was just wondering…… Would this writer EVER consider putting up a piece that reflects reality instead of reflexively backing the homer line?
I don’t think he has it in him. I really don’t.
The Julio Jones debacle is most closely analagous in Atlanta sports history to the Ted Turner acquisition of Bruce Sutter. Great closer, but that team only had the lead in the 8th or 9th about once a week.
Now we have a maybe great receiver (maybe not) but no real way to get the ball to him. Like somebody said, you’d have to be totally crazy to have watched the Green Bay game and thought an explosive offensive player was the answer, and the 24-2 whooping showed w/o a doubt what a poor decision this pick was.
Larry
April 20th, 2012
1:10 pm
How this trade will ltimately turn out is yet to be defined, just as having kept their 27th last year and 22nd this year. Take a walk in the past of first round Falcon picks and see how many were validated once in the NFL.
One thing for sure, in making the trade for a truly special and rare combination of size, speed and attitude, and to couple this with an aready playoff caliber team, TD exmplified infinitely more cauculated boldness and courage than most of the yahoos on here still wondering where they’ll find the money to replace that broken and detached rubber bumper held together by duct tape.
Larry
April 20th, 2012
1:13 pm
Wilbo,
Horrible analogy.
Bruce Sutter was at the end of his career and came to a Braves team among the worst in baseball at the time. And do you remember one of the primary reasons he chose Atlanta over similar offers?
He liked more the fishing quality in this area.
Just the facts
April 20th, 2012
1:16 pm
I see a lot of dawg fans dissing Julio. Could be the envy you have for Bama and coach Saban. Or is it envy for the the state of Alabama for having three consecutive national titles. WDE and Roll Tide. I wonder if Julio would have played for Georgia and A.J Green played for Bama, would we be having this argument. Just so you know, I m an Auburn fan and hate Jawja more than I hate Bama. You see envy is a bad thing leg humpers. Julio is a Falcon, either embrace or get off the bandwagon? War Eagle. “Cam for President”
SteveW
April 20th, 2012
1:17 pm
A rookie, in a strike year so he couldn’t fully learn the offense, who was injured for 3+ games – and he still barely misses 1,000 yards, had 8 TD’s, and had like a 17.8 yard average per catch if I read correctly (computer is too old and slow to go look that up).
The dudes a stud. A Pro Bowl guy. A year younger than AJ Green also – and yes, I like Green better. But both are truly great WR’s, who could be special in this League for a long time.
I don’t mind the trade.
Milburn Drysdale
April 20th, 2012
1:33 pm
Just the Facts….we understand why you hate Jawja more than Bama. Jawja has put some serious beatings on Aub the past few years. Now, go pull for the Panthers.
Just the facts
April 20th, 2012
1:38 pm
Yes MilBURP DRYtail, but BCS trophy Aub 1 Saint Mark 0
Go For 2
April 20th, 2012
1:41 pm
Mark:
Another terrible Falcons draft mistake. So how did J Jones do in games vs winning teams (you have a habit of leaving out relevant information in your arguments, Mark)? Also, don’t qualify his stats by noting #11 missed 3 games (classic Mark Bradley qualifying comment): you really should know/acknowledge that Jones’ inability to dress out/injury proneness was/is a major concern. In fact, you know you should have listed this as an on-going concern and looming issue…welll maybe not Mark because frankly I’m pretty sure you do next to zero actually research for your columns (ref: all the times you call out stories from OTHER media sources such as The Sporting News).
Also, I love your idiotic argument (Point 4) that really is just a condemnation of Falcons management. You state there is no guarantee the other draft picks would have yielded a better defense. So Mark, a bad first round decision is justified because management could have made other picks that didn’t pan out. Air tight logic Mark…wonder if Falcons management realizes you are slamming them.
Also, are you telling me the Falcons couldn’t have used help on the offensive line last year?…really Mark.?..because Matt Ryan not having good protection wasa MAJOR issue…poor o-line play was a huge issue last year (ref: my earlier point on how you clearly do not do any in depth research/analysis).
In conclusion, Mark, I am disappointed with your poor argument but sadly not surprised…it’s become pretty standard for you.
GF2
Just the facts
April 20th, 2012
1:43 pm
By the way, the state of Georgia has only two championship between JAWJA and The Braves. A state with an elitist attitude, but with no hardware to show it. Please trade Julio away from that cesspool and see him become a star and winner like Brett Favre and Deon Sanders. Did ya really trade Deon (idiotic) I thought we were slow in simple ole backwards Alabamer (WDE)
Just the facts
April 20th, 2012
1:46 pm
I see why players like Cam and Jamal Lewis went elsewhere to excel. JAWJA (state) is pathetic. At least you get good cooking in Louisiana.
JSS
April 20th, 2012
1:47 pm
Like I said: “hissy fit!”
This team and Kansas City had the most glaring holes of the 2010 playoff teams. And it played out just that way in the end. KC lost Berry and Cassel and still finished 7-9 with a coaching change. Shoot, Chicago lost their entire backfield and still had more of a chance than the Falcons in all reality playing with folks off the street! You won’t see Caleb Haney again in Chicago (hello Jason Campbell), that is calling filling a need…
riggo
April 20th, 2012
1:50 pm
You throw your #1 draft pick receiver a simple slant,he then out runs everyone for 80 yards for a touchdown with no one even near him as he cross the goal line. After that as OC slants to that receiver, would have been in every game plan going forward on a regular basis. The OC we had last year just didn’t know how to use all of the weapons that we have on offense. Hopefully we are able to use Roddy,Julio,Turner,Gonzalez,Douglas,Snelling & Rogers in a more open offense this year.
bucket
April 20th, 2012
2:01 pm
In my opinion the only way this trade is vindicated is if the Falcons win something of significance. The jury is still out on that and here’s hoping it happens! Go Falcons!
WnE
April 20th, 2012
2:06 pm
I’m glad you’re not a GM Mr. Bradley.
The NY Giants won a Super Bowl with Hakeem Nicks, Cruz, and Mario Manningham at their WR slots, none were 1st round draft picks, and none required and huge Draft-day deals that lead to the Giants mortgaging their Franchise’s immediate future to the tune of 5 draft picks for ONE player.
The Julio Jones deal will go down as one of the worst deals in Falcons Franchise History.
WnE
April 20th, 2012
2:06 pm
and should be any
WnE
April 20th, 2012
2:07 pm
and huge draft day deals = any huge draft day deals
Hubbell Cromwell
April 20th, 2012
2:07 pm
Mark, get a new picture. That video is still freaking me out.
The Mighty Quinn
April 20th, 2012
2:15 pm
Dimitroff went to the mattresses for JJ. He left the gun and took the canolli.
bucket
April 20th, 2012
2:17 pm
@ WnE – I agree with you in principle. The deal for Julio Jones is a deal that a GM makes when you are only one piece away from winning a championship. As the regular season and post season demonstrated – the Falcons were much further away than one player could take them. Julio could still be a great piece of a championship team, but it will be much harder for Dimitrov and Co to make that happen after trading away so many good picks.
Kerryb
April 20th, 2012
2:25 pm
ALL of the Julio naysayers are complete and utter idiots. This will go down as the boldest and best move the Falcons franchise ever made. This guy is a beast. Starting next year you will begin to see why. He will be hands down the best WR in the NFL in a couple of years. Are you kidding me? A WR that’s 6′3, 220 lb receiver that run a 4.3 40 and is as strong as he is. Falcons fans have been waiting for a player like this since the beginning of the franchise and you have a bunch of stupid know-it-all’s that wanted some backup defensive guys instead. Give me a break. Jones caught 54 passes for 959 yards, 17.8 yards a catch at 8 TD’s. That’s without having a rookie off season with rookie mini camp and OTA’s. Just some pick up practices with no coaches. Imagine what he is going to do with off season practice to work on his game with Terry Robinski. Jones did all of that in his rookie season when most of the time rookie receivers take time to do anything in the league. If you say this was a terrible deal then you know nothing of football and should just give up watching it.
mountain_jim
April 20th, 2012
2:26 pm
All I can say is I am thankful that both the OC and DC are GONE.
Kerryb
April 20th, 2012
2:28 pm
bucket
April 20th, 2012
2:17 pm
@ WnE – I agree with you in principle. The deal for Julio Jones is a deal that a GM makes when you are only one piece away from winning a championship. As the regular season and post season demonstrated – the Falcons were much further away than one player could take them. Julio could still be a great piece of a championship team, but it will be much harder for Dimitrov and Co to make that happen after trading away so many good picks.
_______________________________________________________________
Two seconds and a two 4th. You might get a decent player with the third but most of the time you get a backup with the 4th. I would trade that in a heartbeat for a chance at the type of WR that comes along every 5-10 years. That’s what AJ and Julio were. The last one like that was Calvin Johnson. That was how long ago? Everyone bought this media hype about the Falcons were making this move to win the SB this year. No, they made this move for the next 10 years.
Kerryb
April 20th, 2012
2:31 pm
Two seconds and a two 4th. You might get a decent player with the third but most of the time you get a backup with the 4th. I would trade that in a heartbeat for a chance at the type of WR that comes along every 5-10 years. That’s what AJ and Julio were. The last one like that was Calvin Johnson. That was how long ago? Everyone bought this media hype about the Falcons were making this move to win the SB this year. No, they made this move for the next 10 years.
______________________________________________________
My mistake, one lower 1st round pick.
JSS
April 20th, 2012
2:32 pm
“After that as OC slants to that receiver, would have been in every game plan going forward on a regular basis.”
They tried (the slant), and every team except for the Carolina Panthers adjusted their coverages to account for it. Shoot, the third play against Houston was a variation of the play and Ryan whiffed on it! Houston came with pressure packages from every direction from that series onward. NFL, everyone except the Falcons and Juan Castilla (Philly) makes adjustments…