You make the call (after the fact): Was Julio Jones worth it?
If they had it to do again ... (AJC photo by Johnny Crawford)
The final bill for Julio Jones is about to come due, and already the Falcons have paid a heavy cost. Not only did they send five draft picks — last year’s Round 1 (27th overall), Round 2 (59th overall) and Round 4 (124th overall) selections, plus this year’s Round 1 (22nd overall) and Round 4 (118th overall) — to Cleveland for the right to move up and grab one wide receiver, but they have been pilloried in every corner for their flight of fancy.
(Well, not every corner. I still think it was a reasoned move to take a specific player of vast potential, but I’ll get into that soon.)
After the Falcons lost to the Giants 24-2 on a day in the Meadowlands when the offense didn’t scratch, Kerry J. Byrne of Cold Hard Football Facts laid the defeat at the feet of the Julio trade. (Not entirely sure how three rookies — only one of them who’d have been even a first-rounder, and that one only the 27th pick — would have overridden a 22-point deficit, but never mind.) Here was Byrne, writing for SI.com:
If you’re new to the Mighty CHFF, this Man Law tells us that wide receivers are nothing more than Shiny Hood Ornaments decorating the engine of NFL teams. They look all nice and flashy and they cause fans to “ooh” and “ahh.” But they don’t make the engine run any better.
And a bit more:
We knew it was a bad move the moment it happened, especially for a team that went 13-3 the year before but failed to win a single playoff game because of problems that were exposed so badly by the Packers. In fact, we issued Atlanta a D- in our Sports Illustrated draft grades. So we’re not engaging in a little revisionist history. The Shiny Hood Ornament Man Law told us it was an impending disaster the second the deal unfolded.
It’s not as if Byrne was the Lone Ranger on this. Raging consensus holds that the Falcons messed up last year’s draft and also this one, and it’s true Round 1 of 2012 — to be held next Thursday — doesn’t hold the same interest for us around here. When your NFL franchise lacks a first-round pick, all those mock drafts lose their shine. (They have the 55th overall pick, and then the 84th, and then not another until Round 5.)
Loading ...But I’m wondering. We in these parts saw a lot of Julio Jones when he played for Alabama, and we had a good long look at him last season (when he wasn’t hurt). Having seen the talent, if not yet any transforming effect on the Falcons as a team, would have you made the move? Or would you have stayed at No. 27 overall last season, kept this year’s Round 1 pick and taken no risk at all?
I’ll hang up and wait for your answers. (Oh, and there’s a poll, if you’re inclined.) I’m intrigued as to what you might say because, as noted, I’m planning a longer look at the Julio trade in a bit. And I thank you, as ever, in advance.
Here, as threatened, is my take on the whole Julio Jones issue: I thought it was a good move then and think so now.
By Mark Bradley
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372 comments Add your comment
Big Ray
April 19th, 2012
4:24 pm
Yeah, 4100 yards and 29 TD’s really sucks.Clown.
Ghost of Claude Humphrey
April 19th, 2012
4:30 pm
I say trade Julio to move up in the draft so we can get Stephen Hill.
He can’t catch a cold but he sure is fast……
doggoneit
April 19th, 2012
4:34 pm
He is a no brainer!! Next 5 years he is going to be Great!! Monday morning QB please shut tup!!!
truefalconfan
April 19th, 2012
4:34 pm
YES!! hands down, with roddy soon leaving his prime def worth the move.. jj is already one of the top wr in the league and his not even played his 2nd year………..
and im SSOOOO glad he cut off them dreads
windu
April 19th, 2012
4:39 pm
Wide receivers aren’t shiny hood ornaments, which have no function other than vanity. The analogy is poor. Very poor.
Wide receivers are more like tires. You have to have a set. A poor set will impair function, but the car still works, and if it’s a fast car, the poor tires don’t slow it down. A great set will improve function under certain conditions, but the improvement is incremental. It’s nowhere near the difference that having a V-6 engine provides compared to a 4 banger. The reason is that you have several receivers and they don’t touch the ball enough compared to a QB or RB. And that’s why the trade was bad. Look at the impact of Cam Newton on the Panthers. No way in the world you get that impact by going from Roddy-Jenkins-Douglas-Gonzalez to Roddy-Jones-Douglas-Gonzalez. Incremental improvement at best. We overpaid.
Sage of Bluesland
April 19th, 2012
4:48 pm
windu (and some others) get it; the rest of the organization-fed sheep do not. (and, yes, that is precisely what most of you are).
The miscalculation by our boy-wonder GM on how close this team was to elite-status is remarkable. It still smacks as a knee-jerk reaction to the Packers playoff debacle.
Dimitroff should have been fired on the spot for making this trade, considering the many needs on this team.
magiccyclopsh8er
April 19th, 2012
5:03 pm
w/o julio, we wouldn’t have been able to comeback to win the philly or road car game once they went up by 14 or more and would have missed playoffs
PMC
April 19th, 2012
5:05 pm
The trade wasn’t about last year. It was about being able to get a WR of that talent level…that he felt would not be available in the 20’s without waiting 3 years anyway for development.
Dimitroff found Ray Edwards at DE whom he thought would add to the pass rush last year. Didn’t happen because of the injury. Same with Peria Jerry. The knee injury was catestrophic.
He missed on Baker, but they will rectify that sometime this offseason. They brought in the big guy to play right guard because Mike Johnson has never been healthy and that spot was AWFUL last year.
Julio has been thus far all we could ask of a player. It was a hit. Expensive yes, but they did go to the playoffs last year with an unbelievably average offensive line.
No one especially not the men in charge think this is an elite team… thats why they changed coordinators, no matter what fluff they give us publically.
They know the problems, they are just taking a really long time to fix some of them probably waiting to see if they can find better options than the ones that are available currently.
bigdon
April 19th, 2012
5:08 pm
Another Julio thought. Man, oh, man, does he look like a stallion when he breaks in the open. I don’t think anybody can catch him. He was taking 5yrds every two strides. The upside will outweigh
loss of draft picks. If you don’t think receivers win games, didn’t Santanna Moss win the Super Bowl MVP one year? Didn’t Hines ward win the MVP super bowl one year? And what about that dude on the Cards, larry Fitzgerald, he damn sure got them to the super bowl. Big, strong, 455 small block dual carbs for an engine, I’m digging it.
PMC
April 19th, 2012
5:08 pm
They had a team that couldn’t come back from a deficit the year before to a team that could potentially score in a short amount of time with Julio. They have 2 excellent WR’s now and a quick hitter in Harry Douglass that can do a lot of things. Not even mentioning the TE guys like Snelling or Quizz that can catch the ball out of the backfield.
The offensive talent was absolutely underused last year because of the weakness of the offensive line and to some extent the scheme.
Sean Gee
April 19th, 2012
5:14 pm
If Matt Ryan can make the throw on the quick slants,and the deep ball throws it’s worth it, if Matt can’t make those throws. Means u need a QB who can make those throws. So Mattie Ice u better hit the weight room hard this offseason.
LCDawg
April 19th, 2012
5:15 pm
Let’s see what kind of a career he has first….gotta love the immediate second guessing by joe jack ass at SI.
Sean Gee
April 19th, 2012
5:19 pm
Just state the obious Matt Ryan can’t make alot of the throws with constitency. So who u blame that on? If u can’t make the throw I can’t catch the ball.
b
April 19th, 2012
5:21 pm
heck no, he’s always had injury problems. And he’s not that good.
joe
April 19th, 2012
5:22 pm
NO!!!! NO!!!!! NO!!!! Dimitroff blew this one and the owner followed along like a trained puppy. Giving up
draft picks was foolish when the Falcons NEED more bodies.
This year will be a disaster.
Dave
April 19th, 2012
5:36 pm
Not just “NO” but HELL NO”!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Dawgdad (The Original)
April 19th, 2012
5:56 pm
Only a top shelf QB would have been worth that trade.
Hugh Jass
April 19th, 2012
5:59 pm
Any NFL team wins in the trenches. Case and point, Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl. Yes, I did say Trent Dilfer.
bird
April 19th, 2012
6:05 pm
The trade wasn’t that bad. The Falcons swapped 1st round picks at the last draft and gave away this years 1st. Its not like the Falcons gave away two 1st round picks., but that’s the way people try to make it sound.
birddroppings
April 19th, 2012
6:17 pm
No way a green rookie is worth 5 players especially when teams run thru the Defense like toilet tissue.
fish2774
April 19th, 2012
6:22 pm
Julio was worth every pick. Remember it was the suspect coaching that caused a lot of the blunders. Van Gorder and Mularkey got stale with the play callling which was to predictable with Lofton in the middle on 3rd down coverage. And the offense was so predictable on 1st and 3rd downs. It’s not always the players, because if you look at Mike Nolan’s Miami’s defense without big names they were in the top 5 in defense with a much proven experienced defensive coordinator………………..
PlanB
April 19th, 2012
6:26 pm
We will not know how good or bad the JJ pick or even the Matt Ryan pick was until we have an OL good enough to give the pass plays enough time to develop. We passed on good OL FA’s. If TD can’t put a good OL on the field this year with a new OL coach and draft picks, he should go.
The JJ pick cost us alot, and I believe we would have been better last year with the extra picks but in the long run, if we get a good OL we will be better off with the JJ trades. It’s all up to TD. He should never have let Dahl go. People don’t call those busts but I do.
it's done, get over it
April 19th, 2012
6:31 pm
Not now, I dont think. In a couple of years, we’ll be glad we did it.
it's done, get over it
April 19th, 2012
6:33 pm
NOW, however, it is time to draft for defense. Hopefully Peria comes around, and we need
DEFENSE
it's done, get over it
April 19th, 2012
6:34 pm
Plan B is right. Dahl being gone killed us last year. No nastiness on the line and that side was not as effective.
foxdog
April 19th, 2012
6:42 pm
I wish the trade up had been for A.J. Green. But I still think it was well worth it. Difference makers are scarce.
Kingdaddy
April 19th, 2012
6:48 pm
We got the goods, but we overpaid …
Wet Willie...keep on smiling
April 19th, 2012
6:52 pm
Green is just another hack from UGA and nothing more.
Kingdaddy
April 19th, 2012
6:54 pm
“You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em, know when to walk away, know when to run!!! “
J-MAN
April 19th, 2012
6:56 pm
I think the main reason they made this deal was because of the folly of not moving up for Calvin Johnson in 2007. We had the 7th pick in the draft and the Lions had the 2nd. The Lions were actually wanting to move down for the right price because they had an All-Pro in Roy williams and Matt Millen had already spent 3 high 1st round picks on WR. But for some reason we took Jamaal Anderson instead of trading a 1st and a 2nd for the #2. Pick
LakeDawg
April 19th, 2012
6:58 pm
When the trade went down, my first reaction was that it was way too much to give up for a receiver. However, looking at last years draft, I really didn’t see any players on the board that would have really helped the Falcons at positions of need (DE, OT, CB), except for players in the top five that were out of reach. Still, its possible that diamonds in the rough could have been uncovered. Now we will never know. BTW I think Julio has a huge upside. He along with AJ Green, and Calvin Johnson could be the top three WR’s in the NFL in a couple of years.
dawg4u
April 19th, 2012
7:05 pm
Sometimes it takes three years or more to determine if getting Julio was a good move. We’ll never know what we would have gotten had we kept our original position. However, I really like having Julio on our team and if he isn’t already our best receiver then I think he will be soon. He is a definite game breaker and this move would’ve been much better received if we had a strong armed qb like Steve Bartkowski. The Falcons had to start drafting offensive linemen after getting Bart and if memory serves – they started much sooner with the OL drafts with Bart than they did with Matt Ryan. I believe two really good offensive linemen would help this team tremendously because Ryan is a very good qb although hasn’t been much in the playoffs yet which an improved OL would make a big difference IMO.
Nola Cola
April 19th, 2012
7:05 pm
Your beloved Pigeons management would have been better suited by going for another QB, since they must certainly realize that Matt Ryan is a marginal BUST, based off of last year’s UNDERWHELMING 2 point playoff performance — Even WITH the “Bountygate” punishments, we’ll still take this division, especially after SPANKING your Pigeon fowls twice AGAIN…….
LakeDawg
April 19th, 2012
7:10 pm
I wish the trade up had been for A.J. Green. But I still think it was well worth it. Difference makers are scarce.
————————————————————————————————————————————–
I wish we could’ve traded up for Green, also. Odds are that Julio will be a big timer. However, Green was a sure fire cinch to be a big timer. A few more natural receiving skills than Julio.
LakeDawg
April 19th, 2012
7:19 pm
PlanB
You are absolutely right! Losing Dahl hurt the Falcons more than any other move. With that move and the belief that the Falcon’s problems stem mostly from coaching and not personnel, makes me question how astute TD is at player evaluation.
Whopper Dawg
April 19th, 2012
7:20 pm
TD thought he was the last piece to get to and win the Super Bowl. The 13 – 3 season and the Green Bay model confused him and he did not recognize where the team really was. And that is the essence of the GM job, yes?
Jones is a good kid, and should be a good, maybe great WR. But that is just it, he is a WR. You don’t trade that much draft cache for a WR, MAYBE a franchise QB, but not a WR.
Big mistake. And humorously, many TD fans defend the choice with the logic, “We wouldn’t have gotten anyone good anyway”. So they defend TD by inferring TD is not a good GM. I find it hilarious at one level and tragic at another.
Jborodawg
April 19th, 2012
7:26 pm
Worth it. Blame for the playoffs loss on Matty Ice and the O line, not the play calling. Up the middle on 4th and 1 is a gimme and should always get at least a yard. Plenty of blame also on the D, but not the play calling. That one is worn out.
drsoul
April 19th, 2012
7:28 pm
Julio brings many more qualities to a team other than receiver…..he can be used in many playing situations and he is also a very selfless blocker and detail player…..he commits fully to his assignments and is a full team player… as has been mentioned, he is a strong warhorse as a receiver in strength and stride…and, has great hands.. one important detail is that there was no doubt that he had been trained as a winner and could immediately add to this team…you have to really look at the line picks, real availability and long-term worth… his versatility rates him a much higher value than most who only excel with speed and hands running down the field….
By the way….yes, a little biased, but totally objective on this one….ROLL TIDE ROLL…!!!
YEAR OF THE DAWG
April 19th, 2012
7:36 pm
He’s a good football player but AJ is a great one.
AlabamaFalcon
April 19th, 2012
7:45 pm
Hell at least this owner goes after top talent and will spend money, I vividly remember the last one who didn’t, couldn’t whatever…
PlanB
April 19th, 2012
8:12 pm
The info I have on signing our OL, I show Blalock 6 yrs. 38 mil, 16 mil. guarenteed that’s 6.33 mill/year. Clabo contract was 5 yrs. 25 mil, 11.5 mil guarenteed, that’s 5 mill/yr. Dahl’s contract with St. Louis was a 4 yr deal worth 16 mil equals 4 mill/yr. Why couldn’t we afford that when OL is so important? Let me know if my figures are wrong.
PlanB
April 19th, 2012
8:15 pm
AlabamaFalcon – you’re right. Even though we keep wanting to improve our Falcons, we must admit that things are much better than the many years of the Smith’s ownership.
JSS
April 19th, 2012
8:30 pm
If you think the Packers and Saints (along with the Raiders-who the Falcons didn’t play) are so bad, why didn’t your exampled Atlanta receiver put up yards (and points) on said teams? And does that back breaking fumble which led to 6 points for the opposition off set his one TD that night in New Orleans? Game breaker!
YellowJacket
April 19th, 2012
8:54 pm
You guys suck at math.
Larry
April 19th, 2012
9:00 pm
And the Saints are crying because they lost a lousy two 2nd rounders. Voluntarily, we did a lot worse than that in the Julio trade.
McTyre
April 19th, 2012
9:11 pm
Not only is the rookie season too soon to evaluate a player, but one under a questionable passing game OC. There’s a chance that Koetter’s different approach to the passing game will not only elevate a 2nd-year WR’s game but an experienced QB’s as well. Can’t possibly be any worse than a goose egg against the Giants.
ATLcracker
April 19th, 2012
9:12 pm
f
First we should stop calling the trade five draft picks for one player – we traded a bad first round pick (almost a second round pick) for a much better first round pick. Throwing in three later round picks probably doesn’t get that trade made so we had to sweeten that offer and we gave up a bad first round pick this year (granted not as bad as we hoped it would be) and you could argue that that was too much. But notice that last year and this year were very weak years for big ugglies on either side of the ball. How many of those later round picks could you expect to even make a 13-3 team let alone make a major contribution. Remember Bill Parcells says that most players are just “guys”- they are good football players but you can always get another “guy”. What you need are difference makers and there aren’t many of those. Julio Jones is a difference maker, The possible problems with the trade are that the 13-3 was a bit of an illusion and we weren’t actually close enough that one player could put us over the top last year. The other is that Matt Ryan may not be good enough on deep throws to maximize what Julio Jones brings to the table. Everybody in Georgia knows the torture of having an all world wide receiver and no Quarterback to get him the ball (Calvin Johnson/Reggie Ball). I think over all it was a good attempt even if it doesn’t work out.
ATLcracker
April 19th, 2012
9:24 pm
Another thought. I haven’t seen a good summation of what we would have gotten in the draft if we had kept the picks. I know some of you draft fanatics have made that call. With 20/20 hindsight who could we have taken and what did they contribute to the teams that took them?. Which players would they have replaced on last years team. Mark I would like to see that in the coming article you mentioned.
Mark
April 19th, 2012
9:30 pm
If we didn’t trade up for Julio what could we have gotten?
Jimmy smith?
Gave calmri?
Daquan bowers?
Ras I doweling?
Ryan torrain?
Let’s get real here we gave up two crappy first round picks for one sure thing
sports
April 19th, 2012
9:35 pm
juulio is not half the receiver that AJ GREEN is, and never will be. Of course leave to the bumbling falcons to second guess the obvious!