You make the call (after the fact): Was Julio Jones worth it?
If they had it to do again ... (AJC photo by Johnny Crawford)
The final bill for Julio Jones is about to come due, and already the Falcons have paid a heavy cost. Not only did they send five draft picks — last year’s Round 1 (27th overall), Round 2 (59th overall) and Round 4 (124th overall) selections, plus this year’s Round 1 (22nd overall) and Round 4 (118th overall) — to Cleveland for the right to move up and grab one wide receiver, but they have been pilloried in every corner for their flight of fancy.
(Well, not every corner. I still think it was a reasoned move to take a specific player of vast potential, but I’ll get into that soon.)
After the Falcons lost to the Giants 24-2 on a day in the Meadowlands when the offense didn’t scratch, Kerry J. Byrne of Cold Hard Football Facts laid the defeat at the feet of the Julio trade. (Not entirely sure how three rookies — only one of them who’d have been even a first-rounder, and that one only the 27th pick — would have overridden a 22-point deficit, but never mind.) Here was Byrne, writing for SI.com:
If you’re new to the Mighty CHFF, this Man Law tells us that wide receivers are nothing more than Shiny Hood Ornaments decorating the engine of NFL teams. They look all nice and flashy and they cause fans to “ooh” and “ahh.” But they don’t make the engine run any better.
And a bit more:
We knew it was a bad move the moment it happened, especially for a team that went 13-3 the year before but failed to win a single playoff game because of problems that were exposed so badly by the Packers. In fact, we issued Atlanta a D- in our Sports Illustrated draft grades. So we’re not engaging in a little revisionist history. The Shiny Hood Ornament Man Law told us it was an impending disaster the second the deal unfolded.
It’s not as if Byrne was the Lone Ranger on this. Raging consensus holds that the Falcons messed up last year’s draft and also this one, and it’s true Round 1 of 2012 — to be held next Thursday — doesn’t hold the same interest for us around here. When your NFL franchise lacks a first-round pick, all those mock drafts lose their shine. (They have the 55th overall pick, and then the 84th, and then not another until Round 5.)
Loading ...But I’m wondering. We in these parts saw a lot of Julio Jones when he played for Alabama, and we had a good long look at him last season (when he wasn’t hurt). Having seen the talent, if not yet any transforming effect on the Falcons as a team, would have you made the move? Or would you have stayed at No. 27 overall last season, kept this year’s Round 1 pick and taken no risk at all?
I’ll hang up and wait for your answers. (Oh, and there’s a poll, if you’re inclined.) I’m intrigued as to what you might say because, as noted, I’m planning a longer look at the Julio trade in a bit. And I thank you, as ever, in advance.
Here, as threatened, is my take on the whole Julio Jones issue: I thought it was a good move then and think so now.
By Mark Bradley
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372 comments Add your comment
DawgDad
April 19th, 2012
2:02 pm
From what I saw of Jones he was absolutely worth it. The loss of picks hurts now, but the dividends are expected to pay out for a long time.
TD and Smith have done something no other Falcons regime ever did – made the team relevant every year. The trade was clearly considered with this mindset. As for the near-term, there’s a new staff and a lot of work to be done. Viewed in the context of last year’s coaching staff I’d put the Falcons at 8-8 or 9-7; I’m cautiously optimistic for a better showing.
bigdon
April 19th, 2012
2:05 pm
Gotta go along with most and say yeah, I think it was worth it. Matt Ryan once again unaccountable screwed the proverbial pooch. Period. End of argument. He’s the one that is not worth the money they’re fixing to give him. He’s average as grits and has now CHOKED thrice in a row — that’s three times for you non-UGA graduates — . I mean, hell, if the Saints didn’t put a bounty on hime like they did on the others and we play twice, I think ‘nuf said. Plus you trot out Sam Baker. WTF do you expect?
Sonny Corleone
April 19th, 2012
2:06 pm
per last years draft and a mock draft for this year, this is how it shakes out. Would you rather have Julio or (Jimmy Smith Baltimore CB out of Colorado, Greg Little Cleveland WR out of NC, Owen Mareic Cleveland FB out of Stanford and Mike Adams OT out of Ohio State, Sean Spence OLB out of Miami)
Tough Call
tiger7_88
April 19th, 2012
2:07 pm
You got it almost exactly right, Mark, when you said “We in these parts saw a lot of Julio Jones when he played for Alabama, and we had a good long look at him last season (when he wasn’t hurt).”
Now let me change it so that it is *exactly* right: “We in these parts saw a lot of Julio Jones when he played for Alabama (when he wasn’t hurt), and we had a good long look at him last season (when he wasn’t hurt).”
See what I did there?
Tdawg
April 19th, 2012
2:08 pm
Yes and no. I think that if he stays healthy, he will become a top 5 wr in this league. However he was not worth 5 picks. I would have offered last season’s number 1 and this years number 1 and if that wasn’t good enough, then see ya later.
JSS
April 19th, 2012
2:08 pm
But are you comparing rookie years? One name, David Carr :-0 Johnson played all 16 games and was durable for 3 of his first 4 years. And Andre Johnson missed more than half of last season, that dude is a true beast!
Bluestreak
April 19th, 2012
2:10 pm
Yes, if he builds on last year and continues to move into our #1 option.
A Complete Blank
April 19th, 2012
2:11 pm
6-10…..
FalconFreak
April 19th, 2012
2:14 pm
You can take an average qb and rb and win the championship if your offensive line and defense are tops. The Packers and Giants exposed the real weaknesses with this team. Even an above average qb and top receivers accomplish little if you can’t protect the qb and your opponents can run up and down the field and control the clock if you can’t pressure their qb.
PMC
April 19th, 2012
2:14 pm
Big Don, go watch that wretched offensive line play vs the patterns run last year and say that it was Ryan’s fault.
Going back to Vick (and probably farther) this town blames the QB too much for the front office NEVER addressing problems on the offensive line and in the scheme.
Why are we running 30 yard routes if the QB has 1.5 seconds to throw?
DawgDad
April 19th, 2012
2:16 pm
“My belief is, when you give up so much for an early first rounder you want a “body” to be able to produce for themself almost every down! ”
Watching Jones at the end of last season he was contributing on every play, stretching the field and exposing seams. Football is not a game where one player can “produce for themself almost every down”. The closest you’ll come is QB, but put a good QB behind a crappy O-line and he will produce mincemeat. When you have a receiver who commands the level of attention on D Jones does it should make everyone else better. The only caveat is defenses may wind up blitzing more, thinking they’ll get burned if they don’t get to Ryan.
PMC
April 19th, 2012
2:16 pm
Sam Baker has been the same player since he’s been in the league… we just keep chugging along as if there is no issue at left tackle. We’re lucky Svitek could play.
T
April 19th, 2012
2:20 pm
You only give up those draft picks to get a “once in a generation” type player. While Julio has potential to be a very good NFL WR he’s not a game changer. It was reckless spending by management.
Pete
April 19th, 2012
2:21 pm
Inconsistent QB play contributes to any wide receiver’s game
T
April 19th, 2012
2:30 pm
Also, when people compare Julio’s stats to Roddy’s or Julio’s stats to AJ Green they need to remember that Julio was the benefactor of having the best defender(s) covering Roddy. AJ always had the best defender on him and didn’t have much help on the other side. Roddy has been putting up huge numbers for five years with no real threat opposite to him prior to last season and without a real gunslinging QB like most of the other elite WRs.
RobbE33
April 19th, 2012
2:31 pm
Let’s see what the new coordinators can do with this team before we rush to judgement. I had the feeling all last year they were bidding their time, knowing full well that it would’ve been suicide to change the coaching staff without a full training camp to implement a new system.
the reader
April 19th, 2012
2:32 pm
Look @ Arthur, and his forced smile. Rich, but old, full of misery. No success in family, nosuccess in pro scene. Poor Arthur.
bsg3003
April 19th, 2012
2:48 pm
julio no longer has dreads..
wisconsinfalcons fan
April 19th, 2012
2:48 pm
yes he was worth it , it not his fault the calls was made from the oc an no I don’t want to imagine him in a green bay or other uniform other than the falcons, we need players like him on our team
ltejle@gmail.com
April 19th, 2012
2:48 pm
A big fat NO, thought it then, still think it now, I don’t care how talented he is. Too much for 1 WR.
jay
April 19th, 2012
2:49 pm
JSS – “The Indy and 2nd Carolina game skews Julio’s YPC numbers in a huge way… And his numbers in the 2nd NO game were in the dumper too… He was targeted 96 times out of those 54 catches… Look deeper, and look at the games which really mattered, if Carolina doesn’t have a brain lock in the 2nd half trying to jump routes, Julio’s numbers would have been in the high 700’s”
And you could say that about any receivers’ numbers. I’m sure there are numbers that skewed the guys you said he couldn’t be rookie seasons. On the flip side you could say if Mr. Ryan had thrown better balls in a number of instances his numbers could be higher. Or you could say that Mr. Ryan should have thrown more to him in single coverage even when he looked covered and the numbers would be higher, but it doesn’t matter. The numbers are what they are and they compare favorably to all the guys you mentioned. Julio has a good chance to elite if he can just stay on the field.
bsg3003
April 19th, 2012
2:53 pm
by the way i think he’s worth it, look at the potential we could be getting with him. That speed with that size, with that leaping ability, with that strength? He’s a physical freak, and much better than anyone we could get at our spots. I mean we were looking at drafting akeem ayers.. where is ayers now? i don’t even know what team he’s on. and 2nd round? the only 2 players of notice that came out there are the red head cincy QB and the Cowboys RB. both would have been picked before us.
bsg3003
April 19th, 2012
2:55 pm
The Indy and 2nd Carolina game skews Julio’s YPC numbers in a huge way… And his numbers in the 2nd NO game were in the dumper too… He was targeted 96 times out of those 54 catches… Look deeper, and look at the games which really mattered, if Carolina doesn’t have a brain lock in the 2nd half trying to jump routes, Julio’s numbers would have been in the high 700’s
–Major fallacy of circular reasoning my man, you need to fix that
Jimmy Crack
April 19th, 2012
2:56 pm
Was he worth it? Yes. We now have a top flight receiver for several years and will not need one in the future if and when Roddy’s receiving abilities begin to twitter away.
RTR22
April 19th, 2012
2:56 pm
Come back in 10 yrs and tell me JJ was NOT worth the trade. Future all pro and Hall of Fame career if he has someone to consistently throw him the ball. Roll Tide and #8 JJ
jay
April 19th, 2012
2:57 pm
You guys can keep taking shots at his injuries, but they were pulls. They weren’t paussy injuries from being hit. Julio is rock solid with low body fat. Hopefully having a full offseason with the training staff will get him in the right range for body fat(higher than last year) which should reduce the pulls.
Brave Hokie
April 19th, 2012
2:58 pm
Julio would have paid off for OTHER NFL franchises,
but not the ancient Indian burial ground that is the Falcons organization…
He is a “nice to have”… on a team that needed so much.
Great Falconi
April 19th, 2012
2:58 pm
In previous years the Falcons had spent so many picks on defenders in the second-through-fifth rounds that I didn’t really mind the Julio trade. If anything, the offensive line may be the part of this team that suffers from the traded picks, but it’s hard to know right now. It’s just too early to tell.
Rickster
April 19th, 2012
3:04 pm
lessee if we can trade Julio for a bunch of picks in this year’s draft!
Nativebird
April 19th, 2012
3:06 pm
It’s not about Julio. Yes he’s a great player….and probably will go onto great things. But the team needed SO much, and still does. That is the issue. From a guy that preaches “build the the draft” as a foundational element of NFL success, Dimitroff has been fair to midlin with said strategy. The Draft is more than about landing one big name player. Apparently the ” assessment” of needs is where GM and HC are struggling.
bsg3003
April 19th, 2012
3:08 pm
anyway you look at it Julio had a great year for a rookie, I’m pretty sure he had over 1000 yards total, which is certainly impressive, and i think there are only two things keeping him from becoming great.
1. Catching: I really think he has great hands, There are multiple games where he makes fantastic catches, such as the end of the JAX game, The BUCS game, and the COLTS game. But there are times when he loses focus and drops some passes, but i think that’ll get better with a couple of seasons under his belt. He needs to get better at sideline catches too, that was a big problem i noticed this year with him. Again, it’s not an unfixable problem; all it takes is reps and seasoning and he’ll have a 6th sense for where the sidelines are.
2. Injuries: This is the most concerning, because he has been injured numerous times over the course of his football life. I think it’s his physical style of play that gets him hurt, because he is not gonna shy away from contact, we all know that, and he isn’t going to sit out if he isn’t hurt bad enough, (unlike one Mr. Grimes) so i am legitimately worried that injuries could put a stamper on a potentially awesome career.
GeeJay70
April 19th, 2012
3:13 pm
I think the 5 for 1 deal was too much for a WR with the offense the Falcons run. I think building depth would have been a better move. With that being said, I like the risk and the bold move up to take Julio. Hopefully the new OC will better utilize Julio and Roddy and not forget about Gonzales and Douglas underneath.
Bob
April 19th, 2012
3:18 pm
In my opinion it was really a 3 for 1 deal. The 118th and the 124th picks are relatively insignificant. But you did give up players that you could have taken with 27th and 59th last year and 22nd this year. In my book that could and should have been three darned good players, so I am would not have done the deal. Although I do like Julio we need more good players.
Paulitik
April 19th, 2012
3:18 pm
While I’m still not comfortable with what we gave up, I honestly think AJ Green and Julio Jones were Calvin Johnson caliber WRs that don’t come along very often. I think by the end of this season the trade will be completely forgotten as the Dome is flooded with #11 Jerseys every game. The kid is a faster T.O. with none of the headaches.
I do understand the criticism of the lack of addressing the OL. We have gone the opposite of conventional wisdom as far as what is thought to be the correct way of building a Champion. From the inside out. I am really disappointed that we have not tried to adress our horrid LT situation in Free Agency.
Devil's Advocate
April 19th, 2012
3:20 pm
I’m in shock how many on this thread think that Julio is already a future HOF player. How many “great” WRs have we thought we’ve seen the past 10-15 years? A lot. There have been plenty of talented WRs (they are in the NFL after all) but what has that meant as far as winning Super Bowls? Roddy led the league in catches and where did that get us? All these woulda, shoulda, BAMA is greata comments are just crazy. We may as well say if Barry Sanders had a team with a great defense then Detroit would have won some Super Bowls.
IF!
The Falcons have plenty of skill position talent, too much now as a matter of fact. What they lack is OL/DL talent. That’ll win you a championship.
bsg3003
April 19th, 2012
3:20 pm
Nativebird i think that Dimitroff thought the Falcons were closer to the super bowl than they actually were. That 13-3 year went by and all i watched was Matt Ryan make pin-point throws to RW for 4-7 yards per pop. Now in that 13-3 year everything went right; no injuries, very few penalties, few sacks, few TO, excellent on third downs, led the league in 10+ play drives, etc.
Defense was still bad yes, but a couple of marginal players from the draft weren’t going to solve those problems. Dimi’s plan was to splash and sign, which is what he did. He made a big splash by trading up 17 spots and signed the best D end his money could buy.
In the end, This team couldnt’ve been much better with those picks than without them. remember that the falcons had to be perfect on offense if they wanted score, and with those picks from last year, we’d still be having Van Gorder coaching them.
Rev Jim Ignatowski
April 19th, 2012
3:21 pm
What the Julio move revealed through the season, was less about Julio and more about the Falcons leadership. They were pretty clear back then that they believed they were one explosive talent away from an SB team. It is clear now that they were wrong – badly wrong – and blaming Julio misses the point. The glaring problems on the O-line and pass-D were painful to go through last season. One wonders about the capability of a staff that miss read that so badly.
The coaching changes since the end of the season are, I think, affirmation of this point. There is more to it than just poor coaching assessment and strategy, but you can’t very well remedy all of that with no draft picks and no cap space. You can change coaches more quickly and completely than you can change player personnel. So the Birds are going with the “it ain’t broken” message because that is about the only one they have. Putting all that on Julio isn’t fair to the player, and (intentionally?) divertys attention from the real flaws. Amen.
JSS
April 19th, 2012
3:27 pm
One he barely had a 1,000 yards total. 2. It is easy to load up on bad secondaries (Falcons fans should be use to that point), Indy, Tampa, and Carolina were in the dumpster… Fix your own flawed thinking, Grimes had a real knee issue. You got one more game out of him than you should have last season… Like I said, he (Jones) is a fine talent, but Bolden fine, not Fitzgerald great! Can he possibly elevate his game? Sure, but the big problem with Falcons fans is that always get mad when people point out that they got a Lexus in the garage and not a Mercedes…
waynester
April 19th, 2012
3:34 pm
The other factor in determining the value of the trade is: we have no idea what TD plans to do with Roddy. If he plans to keep him for the length of his contract, then the deal looks worse–if we plan on trading him this year or next, while his value remains high, then the deal looks better. None of the WRs we could have taken this year at #22 are anywhere near JJ’s level(the only ones close are Kendall Wright and Stephen Hill), and next year’s crop isn’t looking all that promising either, unless we finish in the bottom 10-15–which we’re trying to avoid….
JR
April 19th, 2012
3:34 pm
Looking at our draft history in the late first round, I say it was without a doubt worth it. This guy is a stud. There are other moves I question more like franchising a nickleback (Grimes) and taking a huge risk on arguably one of the most important positions on the field in Lofa (mlb). Anytime you can get a game changer you take it no matter what the other needs are. There are not many in the league with Julio’s skill set
William Smith
April 19th, 2012
3:36 pm
Just put it this way the Browns will probably make the Super Bowl before the Falcons. With two first round picks the Browns can make a major improvement. However, with none the Falcons can not. Unlike others I don’t question the front office moves of the Falcons. I only know from past history any move the Falcons make will in the long run be proven wrong.
bsg3003
April 19th, 2012
3:49 pm
I honestly don’t see why Dimitroff is criticized for his draft picks so often.. Baker and Jerry look like the only busts that he drafted, and Baker was a major need so you really can’t fault him for that pick.
these are all the noticeable picks that Dimi has made over the years, those not on here are either practice teamers or SUPER nobodies
2008- 1st Ryan, Baker, 2nd Lofton, 3rd Douglas, Jackson, Decoud and 5thBeerman
2009- 1st Jerry, 2nd Moore, 3rd Owens, 4th Sidbury, 5th Reynolds and 7th Vance Walker
2010- 1st Spoon, 3rd Peters, 3rd Johnson, 4th Hawley 5th Franks Meier, 6th Shann
2011- 1st Julio, 3rd Dent, 5th Quiz, 6th Bosher and 7th Jackson, Matthews
first 2 rounds= 2 busts
next 2 rounds= 1 bust
5-7 do we really care?
I see some pretty good players on this list that have panned out great for our team. To say that Dimi is a bad drafter would be foolish, every GM drafts a bust once in a while, but Dimi has been consistent with his picks. I mean he gave us Spoon Ryan and Julio! those three are all future pro-bowlers come on people! open your eyes!
jay
April 19th, 2012
3:53 pm
JSSS- One he barely had a 1,000 yards total. 2. It is easy to load up on bad secondaries (Falcons fans should be use to that point), Indy, Tampa, and Carolina were in the dumpster… Fix your own flawed thinking, Grimes had a real knee issue. You got one more game out of him than you should have last season… Like I said, he (Jones) is a fine talent, but Bolden fine, not Fitzgerald great! Can he possibly elevate his game? Sure, but the big problem with Falcons fans is that always get mad when people point out that they got a Lexus in the garage and not a Mercedes…
Sorry bro, but when do ppl look at stats and say he barely did something? 1000 yards is 1000 yards. When Brees puts up 400 yards against Atlanta ppl don’t say well their defense is suspect, they say he is great. Either way think what you want, I have more invested as an actual fan of the team and I still think it was a good trade and see that Julio has the potential to be elite by what he’s shown already. Give him a full offseason with the coaches and Mr. Ryan and things could be even better.
RICK IN JAX
April 19th, 2012
3:59 pm
you falcon fans think play calling was bad last year , just wait till your new off. coordinator gets going !! from what we saw in JAX last year you people have not seen anything yet .
bsg3003
April 19th, 2012
4:07 pm
Grimes didn’t just say he could go, he said he WOULD go and that there will be nothing stopping him. Guess what? DNP vs Giants.
Uh dude you are sorrily mistaken, about Julio Jones. just type up Julio Jones and Potential in google and see what pops up.
The fact he even got close to 1000 yards is impressive!! He is a rookie in his first NFL season, was hurt a good bit of the season and came back and was a monster! 1000 yards is a milestone that receivers aim to pass.
Megatron- 244 vs Packers 211 vs Saints 214 vs Raiders 3 of the worse D’s in the NFL.
EVERYBODY DOES IT DUDE get with the program!
Big Ray
April 19th, 2012
4:13 pm
1) Some people can’t see it now, but this was a long term move.
2) If trading those picks for Julio was a mistake, so was Detroit giving Calvin “Megatron” Johnson such a huge contract. Either you get the point in this analogy, or you don’t.
3) It’s always amusing to watch folks turn this into a conversation about our QB. Look, if you’re still on MV7’s scrotum, please go join a Eagles blog and leave the rest of us alone to talk about actual Falcons football. If the deep ball is all that wins games, then Joe Montana would have never become a household name, and somebody can explain to me why Dan Marino never won a SB. Otherwise, STFU.
SM
April 19th, 2012
4:16 pm
One player who can, at best, affect 10-15 plays per game vs. 4 different players who could affect 60+ plays per game? This isn’t even an argument. Monumentally bad move.
Big Ray
April 19th, 2012
4:17 pm
One other note that a lot of people aren’t aware of. As a rookie, Julio led the NFL in yards after the catch. I’ll say it again – LED THE NFL. Despite missing a few games. Let it sink in…there is potential here that you just can’t imagine.
BTW, Roddy leading the League in receptions means what? It meant Ryan went to him far more than anybody else, it meant Roddy was focused, etc. Look at the rest of his numbers, however – TDs, Yards Per Catch, etc. Not so impressive at that point. Less to do with Roddy and more to do with our offensive scheme (Mularkey) at the time.
Good God….how do people miss this?
Steve O
April 19th, 2012
4:22 pm
BamaDad
April 19th, 2012
9:04 am
He had some injury problems. The QB sucked all year and the offense was extremely inconsistent with often pathetic play calling. Don’t lay it all at Julio’s feet. When he got his chances, he usually came thru brilliantly.
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Yeah, 4100 yards and 29 TD’s really sucks. Clown.
Big Ray
April 19th, 2012
4:23 pm
One player who can, at best, affect 10-15 plays per game vs. 4 different players who could affect 60+ plays per game?
You’re assuming all 4 players can get in the game, stay in the game, and be effective. Let me give you a quick tour down memory lane.
Remember 1st round picks Sam Baker and Peria Jerry? How many games did they play in their rookie years, all total? How many did they start in? I’ll tell you – Jerry played 2 games, started none. Baker played 8 games, started 5. Do you even remember our 4th round picks over the years? How many games have they played, how many started?
Your assumption of how many plays a certain number of guys can affect is skewed. And it’s also assuming they are effective. Julio can score TDs. Baker assures that the QB will get happy feet and won’t be able to make plays that often. Jerry doesn’t even show up well enough to play. And our 4th rounders aren’t on the field.
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