You make the call (after the fact): Was Julio Jones worth it?
If they had it to do again ... (AJC photo by Johnny Crawford)
The final bill for Julio Jones is about to come due, and already the Falcons have paid a heavy cost. Not only did they send five draft picks — last year’s Round 1 (27th overall), Round 2 (59th overall) and Round 4 (124th overall) selections, plus this year’s Round 1 (22nd overall) and Round 4 (118th overall) — to Cleveland for the right to move up and grab one wide receiver, but they have been pilloried in every corner for their flight of fancy.
(Well, not every corner. I still think it was a reasoned move to take a specific player of vast potential, but I’ll get into that soon.)
After the Falcons lost to the Giants 24-2 on a day in the Meadowlands when the offense didn’t scratch, Kerry J. Byrne of Cold Hard Football Facts laid the defeat at the feet of the Julio trade. (Not entirely sure how three rookies — only one of them who’d have been even a first-rounder, and that one only the 27th pick — would have overridden a 22-point deficit, but never mind.) Here was Byrne, writing for SI.com:
If you’re new to the Mighty CHFF, this Man Law tells us that wide receivers are nothing more than Shiny Hood Ornaments decorating the engine of NFL teams. They look all nice and flashy and they cause fans to “ooh” and “ahh.” But they don’t make the engine run any better.
And a bit more:
We knew it was a bad move the moment it happened, especially for a team that went 13-3 the year before but failed to win a single playoff game because of problems that were exposed so badly by the Packers. In fact, we issued Atlanta a D- in our Sports Illustrated draft grades. So we’re not engaging in a little revisionist history. The Shiny Hood Ornament Man Law told us it was an impending disaster the second the deal unfolded.
It’s not as if Byrne was the Lone Ranger on this. Raging consensus holds that the Falcons messed up last year’s draft and also this one, and it’s true Round 1 of 2012 — to be held next Thursday — doesn’t hold the same interest for us around here. When your NFL franchise lacks a first-round pick, all those mock drafts lose their shine. (They have the 55th overall pick, and then the 84th, and then not another until Round 5.)
Loading ...But I’m wondering. We in these parts saw a lot of Julio Jones when he played for Alabama, and we had a good long look at him last season (when he wasn’t hurt). Having seen the talent, if not yet any transforming effect on the Falcons as a team, would have you made the move? Or would you have stayed at No. 27 overall last season, kept this year’s Round 1 pick and taken no risk at all?
I’ll hang up and wait for your answers. (Oh, and there’s a poll, if you’re inclined.) I’m intrigued as to what you might say because, as noted, I’m planning a longer look at the Julio trade in a bit. And I thank you, as ever, in advance.
Here, as threatened, is my take on the whole Julio Jones issue: I thought it was a good move then and think so now.
By Mark Bradley
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372 comments Add your comment
Boise Dawg
April 19th, 2012
12:39 pm
I don’t think it is a matter of whether he was worth it.. it is really about whether it was a need. Doesn’t do you any good to even have the 2 best receivers in the NFL, if your quarterback struggles, or you have a terrible offensive line or a terrible defense. The Falcons already have a strong #1 in Roddy White. Why get another star receiver? I thought a guy like Titus Young as a later round pick would have made much more sense. Look at their stats Jones vs. Young too for 2011 pretty darn similar and Young is competing with Calvin Johnson for catches.
Good Question, but...............
April 19th, 2012
12:39 pm
Great question MB – the survey will go 60/40 for the good, but there are very few “Rare Air” receivers who can come in and make an immediate impact from that position. There are many reasons why this did not produce at least ONE playoff win, but to put it on JJ, not all of it, but a piece of it. Not to be a UGA homer, but AJ was the pick and everyone knew it, so that would have cost us more. They took a chance and it will pan out in the end, SANS any critical injury.
John H.
April 19th, 2012
12:40 pm
Its too early to tell, becuase of his injuries. But we needed more help on defense. The Falcons gave up a lot, and we still havent made progress in the playoffs. He has the potential, but the jury is still out on whether he is worth what the Falcons, gave up. He wasnt a big name QB.
Hamad Meander
April 19th, 2012
12:41 pm
It’s only because we don’t have a first round pick right now that this is an issue. Julio was well worth the trade. Let’s look at this – we traded last year’s 27th pick and this year’s 22nd pick for last year’s 6th pick. That 6th pick had a very productive season even with being out some games to injury. how much would the 27th pick last year and the 22nd pick this year contribute? Don’t even talk about the 4th rounder – you can barely name players taken in the 4th round.
The main thing is that we got the best WR to come out of college in years for two low 1st round picks. First rounders have about a 50% bust rate, and it seems from Julio’s rookie year, we are going to be on the good side of that ratio, so let’s stop talking about the trade and start talking about how awesome Julio and Roddy can be together!
J.R.
April 19th, 2012
12:42 pm
Jones, is a good receiver and hopefully improvements to assist the team! I think the Falcon’s gave up too much! I believe that a wide receivers can only do as much as the QB provides to them. My belief is, when you give up so much for an early first rounder you want a “body” to be able to produce for themself almost every down! The Falcon’s needed something on defense and a good size quick running back! Just my opinion….:-)
Dean
April 19th, 2012
12:43 pm
I still think he was worth it. HE almost single handedly won the Carolina game this year. He had some injury issues and hopefully that will not be an issue in the coming years. Get through this years draft and see how he does in the next several years. We will have our normal draft in tack for next year. Hopefully, the team will continue to move upward and build toward the ultimate goal. By that time, (which I do think is coming), Julio should be an integral cog in the team’s function.
Devil's Advocate
April 19th, 2012
12:43 pm
The trade was a great move for pairing Ryan with a #1 WR for a significant amount of time (Roddy won’t be around much longer) but was horrible for trying to win a Super Bowl anytime soon. The Falcons didn’t address their needs in 2011. Instead of fixing the A/C they bought a new HDTV. Sure it looks nice but it’s hot we got torched by the Giants.
If the Falcons can’t make a run in 2012 then I fear we’re in for a few seasons of setback which will force us to rebuild around Ryan-Jones. To me the trade meant punt on winning a Super Bowl now in hopes that we can compete for one later.
db
April 19th, 2012
12:43 pm
Why look back and dwell? I say let’s look forward. What’s done is done. We have him and I do believe he will be an outstanding receiver.
But now the main goal is for TD and company to earn their money and really steal a jewel or two out of the upcoming draft.
Again, time will tell.
Boise Dawg
April 19th, 2012
12:44 pm
I suspect they thought/hoped that getting a guy like Jones would really help out Matt Ryan. It didn’t seem to be a difference maker last year. I guess we will wait and see if that changes in the next couple of years. So again, saying it wasn’t worth it, is no slight to Jones…. for the right team it may have been worth it, I just don’t think the Falcons were that right team.
steve
April 19th, 2012
12:45 pm
Julio is a great wide receiver. But no wide receiver is worth that much. I am not sure if I could have parted with that much even if I thought he was the second coming of Jerry Rice.
Three Jack
April 19th, 2012
12:47 pm
Considering Dimitroff’s pitiful draft record, it was definitely worth it.
Joe Falcon
April 19th, 2012
12:53 pm
The idea that a wide receiver is a “hood ornament” is moronic. NFL rules favor passing the ball. If you cannot pass the ball, you lose in this league. Just as important as passing the ball is catching the ball. Wide Receivers aren’t hood ornaments. More like the wheels on the car. Without the wheels, doesn’t matter how good the engine or body is – the car doesn’t move.
GTBob
April 19th, 2012
12:54 pm
Now I know QB is a more important position than WR, but still, they gave up alot more than we did.
I am not sure any position aside from QB is worthy of a huge blockbuster draft trade. Maybe a really dominant defensive player, but even that would be rare.
thethird
April 19th, 2012
12:54 pm
call up cleveland and ask for the deal back…bet they jump at having him
BigDawg
April 19th, 2012
12:55 pm
Alphare, apparently you don’t know much about football. What has AJ done in the pros (in one season)?
Pros: In his first season with the Bengals, Green made the 2012 Pro Bowl and became the first rookie receiver to make it since Anquan Boldin in 2003, with the Arizona Cardinals. The last Bengal rookie wide receiver to make the Pro Bowl was Cris Collinsworth in 1981.
Devil's Advocate
April 19th, 2012
12:56 pm
2010 Playoffs – GB 48, ATL 21
What is the logical need? Defense to mitigate a hot QB. Nah, we should just outscore them! If we had someone like Julio Jones we’d win 49-48 or something.
2011 Playoffs – NY 24, ATL 2
Maybe we’ll draft a punter in the 2nd round.
jay
April 19th, 2012
12:57 pm
@JSS
I think Julio matches up well with all the receivers you listed. And honestly his skillset reminds me a lot of larry fitzgerald. below are the rookie seasons of all the guys you comapred him to.
GP REC YDS AVG LNG TD FD FUM LST
Calvin 15 48 756 15.8 49 4 38 1
Andre 16 66 976 14.8 46 4 45 0 0
Larry 16 58 780 13.4 48 8 36 1 0
Greg 14 45 632 14 75 3 30 1 0
Julio 13 54 959 17.8 80 8 34 1 1
UGA 1999
April 19th, 2012
12:58 pm
This year will be a HUGE indicator of his success or if the deal was worth it.
Devil's Advocate
April 19th, 2012
12:58 pm
And yes, AJ Green is STILL better than Julio Jones. The good thing about the NFL is that media spin cannot overshadow reality. Weren’t the Falcons trying to get Cinci’s pick and when they declined they settled for Cleveland’s? I think the Browns should have declined too so that Green and Jones would be in the same state.
JSS
April 19th, 2012
1:00 pm
He’s hood ornament in that old offense… To answer your own statement, they could not pass the ball in form or manner that made quality NFL teams really fear them…
jay
April 19th, 2012
1:02 pm
If you look at those numbers Julio had by far the best ypc average, equaled LG in TD’s, wasn’t far behind Andre with yards and he only played 13 games and barely played in 2 others due to injury.
Chris Miller
April 19th, 2012
1:02 pm
Hmmm…. let’s see: A.) Missed time due to injury; B.) Cost the Falcons the Texans game when he proved he didn’t know what a “two-minute offense” was (standing at the five while BOTH teams were lined up back at the 30 waiting on HIM) and dropped the game-winning TD pass in the end zone on a ball that hit him in the chest; C.) Cost the Falcons serious momentum in New Orleans with a fumble on a drive that could’ve brought the Falcons within a touchdown (instead, the Saints scored on the turnover and went ahead 38-17), and D.) Got his big-play touchdowns when games were already out of hand.
So I’d definitely say NO.
GTBob
April 19th, 2012
1:04 pm
More like the wheels on the car. Without the wheels, doesn’t matter how good the engine or body is – the car doesn’t move.
True, but lets say that your car has decent wheels, yet the brakes are pretty faulty and the transmission is starting to have problems. Would you spend all of your money on new wheels?
PMC
April 19th, 2012
1:09 pm
I don’t feel I can make this call. I understand the logic behind making that pick, it’s just that it was extremely costly.
Long term I think it will prove advantageous and looking at the team they need smaller numbers of playmakers than they do larger numbers of bodies. So I’m still a fan as Julio is a great player.
That said, I think it hurts them this year because they struck out with Sam Baker and we still don’t know what we’re going to get at DE.
IF we’re sitting at 22 we have a chance to get a better left tackle this year, but nothing is guaranteed.
So yes I’m still behind the pick even though we have mostly given up this year as far as adding talent that can help the team.
Roy
April 19th, 2012
1:09 pm
Bad move to mortgage the future!
PMC
April 19th, 2012
1:10 pm
Kerry J Byrne did not watch the horrid offensive game planning week in and week out either.
PMC
April 19th, 2012
1:12 pm
The future was not mortgaged. They decided to bring in a playmaker on a team that has a dirth of playmakers rather than add several moderately talented players of which the team has many.
It hurts that they lack the ability to go get perhaps a quality left tackle this year because of the miss on Baker. But ultimately, having Julio is better than not having Julio…. if the scheme is a modern NFL scheme.
Ohno
April 19th, 2012
1:13 pm
Julio “quit” in his last Iron Bowl. All I needed to know.
PMC
April 19th, 2012
1:13 pm
As long as they get a pass rush this year and the offensive line is somewhat consistent, it’s just fine.
Gradyn
April 19th, 2012
1:14 pm
It takes more than one season to justify a trade. But if you looks at Jones’ averages against Roddy White (the veteran) they are very similar. So why not trade White, his mega salary, and his Tweeter addication, and get back some of those high draft picks alnong with soem cash for FA?
Devil's Advocate
April 19th, 2012
1:19 pm
Gradyn,
I like the way you think. I’m shocked that the Falcons haven’t traded back into the 1st round using White. How many “playmakers” do the Falcons need? They already had White and Gonzalez to go with Douglas and of course our RB stable. Jones is a great WR but people who think we *needed* Jones over other positions are just not thinking straight. Rogers and Brees would love to have White and Gonzalez as targets, just saying.
Nono
April 19th, 2012
1:19 pm
I think falcons should only draft uga players. That way they can both be mediocre…
4dabirds
April 19th, 2012
1:19 pm
Actually we gave up 4 picks for Julio. Swapping our 1st for their 1st last year does not constitute giving up another pick. Also, when Julio does start lighting it up on a consistent basis, will the naysayers retract their comments? Julio will be a great receiver for many years to come.
Kerryb
April 19th, 2012
1:21 pm
GtBob, say it ain’t so. I thought only UGA players get suspended for games. Tech players never do. Ha!
http://blogs.ajc.com/georgia-tech-sports/2012/04/19/techs-drummond-faces-suspension-for-alcohol-conviction/
Realtycheck
April 19th, 2012
1:21 pm
Fact is Ryan can’t throw deep. Michael Jenkins constantly outran him. Quo vadis, Julio?,
Gradyn
April 19th, 2012
1:21 pm
Devil’s Advocate… AJ Green had 65 catches for 1057 yards (16.26 avg), 7 TDs, and 4 100+ yard games. Jones had 54 catches for 959 yards (17.76 avg), 8 TDs, and 5 100+ yards games. Oh yes, and Julio was hurt part of the season. So how do you figure AJ is better than Julio?
Joe Falcon
April 19th, 2012
1:26 pm
Falcons made the playoffs. Again. To stay with the automotive analogy – the owner of the car has assembled a pretty darn good vehicle, and the driver of the car is doing a GREAT job. ‘Nuff said.
reckingball
April 19th, 2012
1:29 pm
It would have been a perfect deal, if the Falcons would have had a very good OLine in place already.
Ryan can throw deep, and he can deliver the ball to the reciever, but a QB needs more than 2 seconds of protection from his OLine, so that he can allow the recievers to run their routes and get open.
Devil's Advocate
April 19th, 2012
1:31 pm
Gradyn,
Julio didn’t seem durable for all the talk of how physically built he is, Julio dropped too many balls, and Julio had too many miscues compared to Green. There’s a reason Green was selected for the Pro Bowl while Jones was not. The biggest knock on Julio was his hands and/or lack of concentration. There’s a reason Green was the first WR drafted and was also the Falcons’ first choice.
All that doesn’t mean Julio is a bad player and stats don’t tell the entire story. How would Green’s season have looked in a Falcons uniform and how would Jones look as a Bengal? Is Ryan better than Dalton? Is the Falcons offense better suited for a passing attack given Roddy, Tony, and Harry out there with Julio/AJ? I think AJ would have had even better stats in Atlanta than Cinci.
PMC
April 19th, 2012
1:32 pm
One further thing. 2012 is NOT a make or break year for the Falcons. Do NOT get your hopes up or even put them all into this next season.
If they are better great, but this is NOT a team that looks like a Super Bowl caliber team. Doesn’t mean they can’t win it. They could, but expecting that with this lot when they haven’t won a playoff game yet is silly.
Let’s expect them to come out with a winning record and a playoff bearth with the hopes that they will win at least one playoff game this year.
If they lose, they aren’t throwing in the towel and changing coaches or GM’s etc. That might be the case after the 2013 season if progress isn’t made.
LawDawg
April 19th, 2012
1:32 pm
Yep. The Falcons were just a bunch of role players away from a Super Bowl last year. Good analysis, SI.
I do not see how it is possible to take anything but a “too soon to tell” approach, particularly since WR is a position that takes time to develop (the old metric was third year is when the WR can really be evaluated, AJ Green notwithstanding).
Dallas Falcon
April 19th, 2012
1:35 pm
This time of year is like Christmas for an NFL fan; everybody can’t wait to open that shiny new toy that they’ve seen in the store window and the Sears Wish book or the prospect that all the analyst are talking about. That makes it very painful for Falcons fans to have to sit there and wait for the first round to go by without a pick. But that doesn’t make this a bad trade; in fact, it was a very good trade. First of all the Falcons got what they believe will be a great player versus four good players. Always take the great player. Secondly, two NFL teams have validated the trade: the Redskins traded two first round picks and a second to move up four spots, the Falcons moved up 20 spots and only gave up one first round pick. And, the Lions made a star receiver the highest paid player in the league. The top receivers are valuable and teams aren’t going t o let them get away.
Atlanta87
April 19th, 2012
1:38 pm
@ Kerryb He was drinking while on a boat. There are very few people on this blog who can say they have never done that or else they are lying. He shouldn’t have done the breathalyzer test and now it will hurt the Jackets in the opening game this year.
Sid
April 19th, 2012
1:41 pm
So what if we had not of drafted Julio. Our pick was #26
26 Kansas City Chiefs Baldwin, JonathanJonathan Baldwin WR Pittsburgh Big East from Atlanta via Cleveland [R1 - 6]
1 27 Baltimore Ravens Smith, JimmyJimmy Smith CB Colorado Big 12 in lieu of pick 26 (time expired) [N 3]
1 28 New Orleans Saints Ingram, MarkMark Ingram RB Alabama SEC from New England [R1 - 7], 2009 Heisman Trophy winner[N 4]
1 29 Chicago Bears Carimi, GabeGabe Carimi OT Wisconsin Big Ten
1 30 New York Jets Wilkerson, MuhammadMuhammad Wilkerson DE Temple MAC
1 31 Pittsburgh Steelers Heyward, CameronCameron Heyward DE Ohio State Big Ten
1 32 Green Bay Packers Sherrod, DerekDerek Sherrod OT Mississippi State SEC
The problem isn’t who we got last year, it’s who are we not getting this year.
Ultimately, Julio is going to prove to be All Pro year after year. You never know, TD may pull off some slight of hand and land a irst rounder at a positon of need. You get much deeper in the draft you still have a learning curve.
JSS
April 19th, 2012
1:46 pm
The Indy and 2nd Carolina game skews Julio’s YPC numbers in a huge way… And his numbers in the 2nd NO game were in the dumper too… He was targeted 96 times out of those 54 catches… Look deeper, and look at the games which really mattered, if Carolina doesn’t have a brain lock in the 2nd half trying to jump routes, Julio’s numbers would have been in the high 700’s.
WooYeah
April 19th, 2012
1:48 pm
Verdict: Too soon to tell, but in time, it will be the right move.
Reasons:
-No WR available in the 20s in either 2011 or 2012 approaches his talent.
-No guarantee how the theoretical five picks would have panned out.
-Jones already is proving to be a sure thing.
Bottomline: You make moves to win. Better to lose being proactive, rather than sitting back, hoping, wishing, praying that all the pieces fall into place. Hindsight is always done by “cold, trembling souls who know neither defeat or victory” — Teddy Roosevelt.
GTBob
April 19th, 2012
1:48 pm
Maybe the Falcons should trade away their 2013 and 2014 drafts to get Justin Blackmon. Then we would be unstoppable.
Yurtle_the_Turtle
April 19th, 2012
1:50 pm
It APPEARS we gave up too much for Julio but the real question becomes who would we have drafted had we not made the trade? Can’t say because the draft would have gone a different way had we not made the trade and Julio would have been on some other team who then made a different choice. If we had drafted a “bust” or a “reach” in round 1 rather than taking Julio, then that makes this Julio trade looks good.
oh no!
April 19th, 2012
1:52 pm
Oh,criticizing the Emperor’s New Clothes are we? Well,thats dangerous here in Dirty Bird Country,where they are too busy ‘rising up’ and pandering to the demographic than worrying about any aspect of the proven basics of sound Football,like defense,special teams,the running game…..Its all the the long ball Passing game here in Pooplanta… Football has always been,and will always be about a TEAM,not one Savior worshipped then hated because he inevitably failed to live up to the hype.
Ted M
April 19th, 2012
1:53 pm
You need a QB first… so bad move. I know the Falcons (and the media for that matter) think they have their QB of the future but that doesn’t make it so.