You make the call (after the fact): Was Julio Jones worth it?
If they had it to do again ... (AJC photo by Johnny Crawford)
The final bill for Julio Jones is about to come due, and already the Falcons have paid a heavy cost. Not only did they send five draft picks — last year’s Round 1 (27th overall), Round 2 (59th overall) and Round 4 (124th overall) selections, plus this year’s Round 1 (22nd overall) and Round 4 (118th overall) — to Cleveland for the right to move up and grab one wide receiver, but they have been pilloried in every corner for their flight of fancy.
(Well, not every corner. I still think it was a reasoned move to take a specific player of vast potential, but I’ll get into that soon.)
After the Falcons lost to the Giants 24-2 on a day in the Meadowlands when the offense didn’t scratch, Kerry J. Byrne of Cold Hard Football Facts laid the defeat at the feet of the Julio trade. (Not entirely sure how three rookies — only one of them who’d have been even a first-rounder, and that one only the 27th pick — would have overridden a 22-point deficit, but never mind.) Here was Byrne, writing for SI.com:
If you’re new to the Mighty CHFF, this Man Law tells us that wide receivers are nothing more than Shiny Hood Ornaments decorating the engine of NFL teams. They look all nice and flashy and they cause fans to “ooh” and “ahh.” But they don’t make the engine run any better.
And a bit more:
We knew it was a bad move the moment it happened, especially for a team that went 13-3 the year before but failed to win a single playoff game because of problems that were exposed so badly by the Packers. In fact, we issued Atlanta a D- in our Sports Illustrated draft grades. So we’re not engaging in a little revisionist history. The Shiny Hood Ornament Man Law told us it was an impending disaster the second the deal unfolded.
It’s not as if Byrne was the Lone Ranger on this. Raging consensus holds that the Falcons messed up last year’s draft and also this one, and it’s true Round 1 of 2012 — to be held next Thursday — doesn’t hold the same interest for us around here. When your NFL franchise lacks a first-round pick, all those mock drafts lose their shine. (They have the 55th overall pick, and then the 84th, and then not another until Round 5.)
Loading ...But I’m wondering. We in these parts saw a lot of Julio Jones when he played for Alabama, and we had a good long look at him last season (when he wasn’t hurt). Having seen the talent, if not yet any transforming effect on the Falcons as a team, would have you made the move? Or would you have stayed at No. 27 overall last season, kept this year’s Round 1 pick and taken no risk at all?
I’ll hang up and wait for your answers. (Oh, and there’s a poll, if you’re inclined.) I’m intrigued as to what you might say because, as noted, I’m planning a longer look at the Julio trade in a bit. And I thank you, as ever, in advance.
Here, as threatened, is my take on the whole Julio Jones issue: I thought it was a good move then and think so now.
By Mark Bradley
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372 comments Add your comment
No
April 19th, 2012
9:56 am
“Was Julio Jones worth it?”
No Bama player is worth it.
Catoosa
April 19th, 2012
9:56 am
Line play is what wins games. With great o-line play, average QB’s and RB’s have great seasons.
With great d-line play, serviceable DB’s get the job done.
No
April 19th, 2012
9:57 am
“The QB sucked all year and the offense was extremely inconsistent with often pathetic play calling.”
All year? Really? Oh that’s right, you are a Bama guy. Sorry about your trophy.
Saldiven
April 19th, 2012
9:57 am
Julio Jones is a great receiver, and probably went at the right point in the draft. The problem with Atlanta’s move to pick him up is that Atlanta gave up far more than a single high round draft pick for him. No wide receiver ever, with the possible exception of Jerry Rice, was worth what Atlanta gave up. The simple fact of the matter is that a Pro Bowl level wide receiver will touch the ball eight times a game; that equals 120 catches a season, which is an exceptional number by any measure. Yes, any one of those eight touches might be a huge, game changing play, but it is far more likely that all eight of them will be relatively pedestrian, run-of-the-mill plays. In my opinion, there are only a couple of positions that can justify the number of draft picks that Atlanta gave up for Jones, and those are Quarterback and Defensive End, and that number of picks is only justifiable if the QB or DE selected has franchise player talent. Those are the only two players on the field that legitimately have the chance to change the game on every snap.
Bob Loblaw
April 19th, 2012
9:59 am
Too early to decide, man.
bgtodd01
April 19th, 2012
10:01 am
Most definitely worth it…..
Glenn
April 19th, 2012
10:02 am
No. With the new rookie wage scale in place, the Falcons threw away a ton of low round draft picks which were locked in at lower compensation than free agents and other aging veterans who were on their last legs and demanding top dollar. Julio also had a history of injuries (just like Jerry and Moore from previous drafts, who missed several games and have had limited production) coming out of college. The Falcons knew they were going to have a bunch of free agents coming up, and therefore a bunch of team needs, so throwing away a bunch of draft choices, over the course of two seasons, for one player, was a bad business decision.
yo Vince
April 19th, 2012
10:02 am
Julio was the best player in the draft last year. His numbers would have led the NFL had he not missed 3 games and only played 1 qt in another. I bought my plane tickets and game tickets yesterday for the K C game. Be a REAL fan and put your money where your mouth is, Haters. Go Falcons!!!!!!!!
smitty
April 19th, 2012
10:03 am
MB, told you this last year when you were complaining about the failure of the braves front office (wren, etc) to make a move trading away our pitchers for a bat ( there might be something to that given the braves’ season ending swoon)….you pointed out the BOLD move made by the falcons to obtain julio jones as an example of what the braves should do…….well, its time to pay the piper……JJ is a great player/WR but there are few players worth what the falcons traded to get him…..just wait to check who’s selected in this years draft in those draft picks given away to really understand the cost…..have a nice day
O'Brien
April 19th, 2012
10:04 am
I like Julio Jones, but I dont think it was a good move for the Falcons.
We already had Roddy White, Tony Gonzales, and even Harry Douglas. Our O-Line is not good enough to give our QB the necessary time, and when he does have time, he is not good enough on his deep throws.
Plus looking ahead, TD already knew that this offseason would be critical, with Grimes, Lofton and Abe being FAs. So we had to use our picks (and cap space) wisely.
Box
April 19th, 2012
10:06 am
When you give up five draft choices, including two number ones, for a single player, then that player needs to be a dominant, once- in-a-lifetime player at a critical position like QB. JJ is a wide receiver, and not even the best one in that particular draft. So this was a foolish move. It’s not fair to blame JJ for it, though.
T-Bone
April 19th, 2012
10:08 am
This is not a Julio Jones issue. Is he good? Absolutely. Will he be great? Only time will tell, but in my opinion, he will. So let’s say he turns into maybe not Jerry Rice or even Calvin Johnson, but Larry Fitzgerald or Greg Jennings, or even the equal of Roddy White. Is another Roddy White worth 2 first-rounders, 2 fourth-rounders, and a second? I don’t think so. Look at what Green Bay has done with 1 primary receiver and 4-5 secondary guys. You expect first-rounders to start, second-rounders will probably start, fourth-rounders are a coin toss. So would you rather fill 3 holes with B+ players or have 1 A+ player. I think you want to fill holes, and our playoff losses prove that.
Liberty Media is evil!
April 19th, 2012
10:09 am
GDawg,
Remember your post at the end of next season when we dont make it to the playoffs and Jones spends half of the season out with an injury.
No offensive line means Jones will have to make catches about 10 yards our right before they get pounded. Just like Roddy, Douglas, and Gonzalez. I know youve seen it before. Every team knows that the Falcons will most likely run on first down, throw a short pass on second down, throw a short pass on third down. That means Jones will take around 6 horrific hits by the 3rd game.
I see a lot of short sightedness on this board. The kind of people that draft a wide receiver for a team that just needed some defensive tweeks.
GDawg you might as well take Dimitroff’s job. I cant see how you would do any worse.
Falcon 34
April 19th, 2012
10:09 am
Mark, it’s FOUR draft picks for Julio, not FIVE. I know that five sounds a lot better, but we only swapped draft picks in your claim of the fifth. You’re implying that we actually gave away five picks, but we did not.
Khao$
April 19th, 2012
10:13 am
This article is the main reason why I include the tagline “Fire Smitty and Dimitroff” when I post on Falcons’ blogs. This issue has more to do with Dimitroff then it does Smitty.
While I don’t have any reason to believe Julio won’t go on to have a good career (to those hating on JJ…he almost had 1,000 yards in his rookie season even after missing games), we had other glaring needs that were not addressed. And yet, Dimitroff thought we needed a WR.
Now we don’t have a first rounder, we didn’t make any additions of note to the offensive and defensive lines, and everyone else around else (Saints excluded) is getting better. I refuse to believe that the reason the Giants thumped us soley lays at the feet of Murlarkey and BVG. We have some personnel issues at some key positions (strong safety, the offensive and defensive lines) that Dimitroff refuses to address.
I don’t expect the #55 pick and Dirk Koetter (who has done what in this league?) to be the panacea for all of our woes.
Fire Smitty and Dimitroff
Bill
April 19th, 2012
10:14 am
They wanted a deep threat and big play potential. But you can’t have a deep threat unless the QB has some time.
Richard
April 19th, 2012
10:15 am
Whoops, I posted that none of the elite receivers won a playoff game last year. I forgot Andre Johnson did beat the Bengals.
Liberty Media is evil!
April 19th, 2012
10:18 am
Look at the Super Bowl.
Fantastic defense. Real play makers.
And…. a wide receiver picked from another teams practice squad.
Lets also not forget that this brain trust signed Ray Edwards to a long term contract without giving him a thorough physical.
sansho1
April 19th, 2012
10:18 am
Falcon 34 — count how many players we would have gotten for those picks had we not made the trade. The number is five. Hence, five for one.
Bad Idea Jeans
April 19th, 2012
10:19 am
Julio is a nice player so this isn’t about him. But WR’s touch the ball at most 10 times a game. Further, the 2010 Falcons were NOT merely one player away from being Super Bowl bound. We have needs on O-Line (and have for 10 years), safety and D-line that should all be addressed before going for the glamor move of WR.
Blank seems to be making the same mistake now that he did in year one (remember the big signing of Peerless Price?) of wanting to make the big splash instead of the boring building block
Kerryb
April 19th, 2012
10:21 am
The biggest bust was Jerry. We basically had no first round draft choice that year. Julio is another Larry Fitzgerald and Terrell Owens (without the attitude) in the making. He will soon be one of the top 2 receivers in the league along with Calvin Johnson. That will soon be worth trading a first and fourth round pick this year. He showed glimpses of how good he is going to be last season.
Liberty Media is evil!
April 19th, 2012
10:21 am
Bill,
Remember Matty’s hail mary throw last season? All of our team was in the end zone and the ball landed on the 20 yard line.
And we signed him to a 10 year contract?
Isnt it strange that all of the armchair football managers realize that Matty’s arm stunk at Boston College, and Jones was perpetually hurt at Alabama, but Falcon’s management didnt?
I guess we need better scouts.
JB
April 19th, 2012
10:22 am
We can only hope that what happened to Roddy White happens to him. He blooms the 3rd or 4th year.
The physical tools are there, but he has yet to show that super star results. The QB might be part of it.
Kerryb
April 19th, 2012
10:23 am
Bad Idea Jeans
April 19th, 2012
10:19 am
Julio is a nice player so this isn’t about him. But WR’s touch the ball at most 10 times a game. Further, the 2010 Falcons were NOT merely one player away from being Super Bowl bound. We have needs on O-Line (and have for 10 years), safety and D-line that should all be addressed before going for the glamor move of WR.
________________________________________________________________________
A WR can change a whole game with just one of those 10 catches a game.
reckingball
April 19th, 2012
10:23 am
Falcons, build up that OLine.
Falcons 4 Real
April 19th, 2012
10:23 am
Unquestionably yes. For years fans have wanted a “that guy” be they coach killers like TO or Randy Moss or guys that other teams held tighter than a miser’s wallet like Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin or Andre Johnson. Well we went and got a “that guy” and still the whining persists. We’re talking about a receiver that saw the end zone 10 times in his rookie year and he’s only going to get better. If there’s a receiver in this year’s draft that scores double digit TDs I will reprint this article and personally eat it. Not to mention with Hines Ward’s retirement the best blocking receiver in the NFL wears a Falcon uniform. Yes, O-Line play was disappointing last year but just a season before as a unit it was the best in the league, I don’t think a lack of talent was so much the problem. There were no impact DLs in last year’s draft from 27 and after and none apparent from 22 on this year. Using Jimmy Johnson’s draft value chart we overpaid for Julio by roughly a 3rd to 4th round pick and I’ll take that in a heartbeat.
Wait a Minute
April 19th, 2012
10:24 am
If you give away two number one draft picks and basically gut the draft for two years, then the player you get in return needs to be a sure-fire dominant player at a critical position like QB or LB. Julio Jones, if he stays healthy, looks like a good WR. But he’s only a WR, and not even the best one in his class. It’s not fair to blame him for the Falcons’ blunder, but the decision to trade away all those draft picks was obviously foolish. It was foolish when it happened, and it’s even more obvious today.
Robert Barron
April 19th, 2012
10:24 am
@Steelers.
If the Falcons had your defense, yes the deal might have made sense.
But TD left the defense unfixed and his additions through free agency have left a lot to be desired.
The trade made me think TD was trying to duplicate the Chargers of Dan Fouts who needed to outscore every team and never made it to the Super Bowl.
What thinks our community of TD’s free agent additions?
We have the right owner with a mediocre at best GM.
We will not get to the Super bowl with the mediocre talent evaluation of Dimitroff.
JB
April 19th, 2012
10:24 am
Falcons also a lot like the Dawgs lately. Nice 10 win season and then a beat down by a good football team when given a chance to advance to something better.
Kell
April 19th, 2012
10:25 am
Nope. Contribute to a playoff win and he’d be worth it. So far he’s been good against crap teams and nowhere against good one. So as of now, it wasn’t
Tommy Maddox
April 19th, 2012
10:25 am
Julio would be a star on a strong offensive team. Falcons gave up all those picks then did not bother to notice/remember/care that we could not afford to catch big fish in free agency [contrary to what we were told].
It will be hard for Julio to be worth the cost here so long as Ryan is being chased all over an/or being flattened behind a porous line.
Kerryb
April 19th, 2012
10:26 am
If you were going to lose a first round pick in a trade this is the year to not have that pick. This draft had over 60 Juniors come out so this is a pretty deep draft and good players will be there into the 3rd round. Last years draft was not that deep and the Falcons knew that if they were going to get a superstar type player at the position they needed they had to make a bold move.
Alphare
April 19th, 2012
10:27 am
Borodawg,
Julio is part of reasons BAMA won a NC during his tenure while playing with an average QB.
On the other hand, Green’s team didn’t even win the division while playing with the #1 draftee QB. The way Green catches, it should have complete percentage. But when he faces better defensive coverage or double team coverage, he won’t be that good of a catcher. He is too predictable. Every time I watch him, I just know what he is going to do. No exception.
TB
April 19th, 2012
10:27 am
Julio is a great athlete and wide out but he is not worth all those picks not because of him but other reason. 1. Could of got torrey smith and not give all draft picks, i know he is not as physical as julio but still did great. 2. Needed other things than WR. 3. Now with the new OC he wants to put in west coast style and that will not mean julio going deep alot. 4. My favorite reason and Its like number 3 Matt Ryan just can not throw the deep and lead and wideout in stride and i like julio but not worth all those picks because we need a LT and defense of line help in worst way and pur first pick is #55. Not good.
section322
April 19th, 2012
10:29 am
When you win 10 games every year you will never get the top player at any position. Therefore, we lost a few average players for a player who was #1 at his position on some mocks (AJ Green). Aggressive move that will pay off and help Ryan.
Sivart
April 19th, 2012
10:29 am
Where in the world does everyone keep coming up with this silly 5 for 1 trade? If my math holds true, we swapped first rounders in 2011 – that is a wash, nada, zero. We then gave up 2 other 2011 picks plus 2 in 2012. Well my math says 4 for 1.
Please stop this silly 5 for 1. And yes the trade was worth getting such a talented receiver.
GTT
April 19th, 2012
10:29 am
Glad to have him, but the price was too high by a lot.
JB
April 19th, 2012
10:30 am
Somebody earlier hit it on the head. That big nose guy ( Jerry) from the Mississippi school in the first round was a big screw up. I could tell looking at him play in college he would live on IR in the NFL. We should of drafted a lock down corner or a killer LB to help the defense. Those big nose guys ought to be signed as FA’s after they prove themselves with results and stamina
Kerryb
April 19th, 2012
10:31 am
Everyone complains about the OL. The reason the OL was bad wasn’t because we traded and moved up for Julio Jones. There were no good O Linemen at #30 in last years draft. The reason the OL stunk was because TD decided to save a few bucks and not sign Harvey Dahl back. He chose to sign a worthless right tackle back. We saw that the reason Clabo looked good the years before was because he had nasty Harvey Dahl next to him. Without him he was exposed. He also chose to move up in the draft in 2008 and choose a worthless left tackle. that is what is wrong with the Falcons OL.
HardTruth Soldier
April 19th, 2012
10:32 am
Don’t dislike the pick, but wow Alton Smith (San Francisco) would have brought more NEEDED VALUE at the time. Could have taken the extra pressure off of Abraham, and given Atlanta a Defensive stallion for years. We could have won with Jenkins, and picked up a receiver this year in free agency. But Julio is here and the Kid can play. So welcome to town for a long time Julio.
Falcon 34
April 19th, 2012
10:32 am
sansho1 — Not trying to get into a semantics game here, but we GAVE UP four picks, meaning we gave them away, and we swapped our first round picks. If you want to say that we gave up five for one, than it should really be said as “Four Given Away / 1 Swapped for One Player” Deal.
Liberty Media is evil!
April 19th, 2012
10:33 am
KerryB,
Maybe a WR could on some teams, but not the Falcons.
Our D is so bad that the “superstar” wide out would need to make 3 to 6 spectacular TD catches just to keep us in the game against a Superbowl caliber team.
sansho1
April 19th, 2012
10:33 am
Why do people insist that “swap” is different from “trade”? It was all one big “swap” — Five. Draft. Picks. For. One. Draft. Pick.
Kerryb
April 19th, 2012
10:34 am
GTT
April 19th, 2012
10:29 am
Glad to have him, but the price was too high by a lot.
____________________________________________________________
When you are getting a future superstar at a skilled position who is a hard worker and doesn’t have the diva attitude that others at the position have it was a real cheap price.
Minor improvement at GM for Falcons
April 19th, 2012
10:34 am
TD ideas will not get it done.
He’s a medicre GM who doesn’t have the cheap owner excuse past GM’s have had.
1eyedJack
April 19th, 2012
10:34 am
Anybody remember the 80’s when most every first round pick was a bust? Remember Aundray Bruce?
GTBob
April 19th, 2012
10:34 am
No, he was not worth it. He is a great player, but we didn’t really need him that much and I was always skeptical that his addition would turn Matt Ryan into Aaron Rodgers all of the sudden.
Kerryb
April 19th, 2012
10:35 am
Liberty Media is evil!
April 19th, 2012
10:33 am
KerryB,
Maybe a WR could on some teams, but not the Falcons.
Our D is so bad that the “superstar” wide out would need to make 3 to 6 spectacular TD catches just to keep us in the game against a Superbowl caliber team.
_________________________________________________________
I don’t think our D will be that bad this year with a real NFL caliber DC coaching them.
Minor improvement at GM for Falcons
April 19th, 2012
10:36 am
@Kerryb.
When will the Falcons have a defense capable of getting them to and winning a Super Bowl?
Not soon.
Dan Fouts with his great arm and weapons never got there.
Aziz
April 19th, 2012
10:36 am
It is defintely too early to tell. We will have to wait another 2 years and see how we fared with limited picks in the last year and this year’s draft and compare it with the value he added for our Team during the entire time he spends with falcons.