It’s a long season, but time might not be on the Braves’ side
A sight seldom seen thus far: The Atlanta Braves in the process of scoring runs. (AP photo)
Update: The Braves are no longer 0-3. They’re 0-4. They lost to the Astros on Monday by five runs, which takes some doing. And now we return to regularly scheduled programming.
Stipulation: It’s a long season. It’s so long that, by the time the Braves finish their regular season, the Georgia Bulldogs — who haven’t yet gotten to G-Day — will have played five actual games. To judge a baseball team off its first series is akin to rating an NFL club on how it handles the opening kickoff of Week 1. That said …
The Braves didn’t enter 2012 with the benefit of the doubt carried by most winning teams. The Braves, as we know, went 9-18 in September 2011. They began the new season by getting swept by a team picked to finish last in the National League East. The awoke Monday having gone 9-21 over the past 30 regular-season games. That’s a winning percentage of .300. Carried over a 162-game schedule, that rate would yield a 49-113 record, which would be the worst in Atlanta annals.
But enough non-fun with numbers. I don’t expect the Braves to lose 113 games. I’m on record as believing they’ll win 92 or thereabouts and make the playoffs, perhaps as NL East champ. I thought last week — and think still — that this is a good team. But even Rebecca of Sunnybrook Farm couldn’t fail to note that the Braves of Opening Weekend 2012 bore a lamentable likeness to the Braves of September 2011.
The Epic Collapse ended with them being swept by Philadelphia. The new season commenced with another sweep. Midway through Game 2, the issue wasn’t so much if they’d win — they didn’t lead in the series — but if they’d manage a run. Six innings into Game 3, they hadn’t even mustered a hit.
The weekend’s unhappy totals: Seven runs, 14 hits, 11 walks against 25 strikeouts, an on-base percentage of .238 and a team batting average of .151. Come back, Larry Parrish! All is forgiven!
I’m kidding about the last part. But black humor will soon give way to utter bleakness if the Braves don’t start to hit and win. There’s no consolation in noting that the Yankees and Red Sox likewise started 0-3, or that the Marlins were 1-3, or that the Phillies scored one fewer run in their first three games than did the local Hitless Wonders. At this point, the Braves can’t worry about anyone else. They’ve got to get themselves right.
A team coming off an egregious September — and then a pretty rotten spring training, not that spring training counts — needs to win games and influence people, and it needs to do it soon. Otherwise the doubters will be in full cry, and some of that doubt will spread to the clubhouse. It was never going to be easy for the Braves to put September 2011 behind them, but it will be impossible if April 2012 becomes more of the same.
Baseball isn’t so much a game of momentum — momentum is tomorrow’s starting pitching, to quote the apt phrase — as belief. Even good teams have crummy weeks. By Memorial Day, though, you can begin to tell which teams, in their heart of hearts, see themselves as winners. The same Braves roster in a different year might be able to shrug off an awful April; I’m not sure this one can.
A sorry start could impel Frank Wren to start making trades. He resisted the urge over the winter, but he’s not by nature the most patient of general managers. Some of you will say: “Wren needs to be making trades hand over fist!” Even if he does, beggars tend not to be choosy. Would Wren in right-the-ship mode be able to wait for a sweet deal — getting Michael Bourn without sacrificing a prime arm — or would desperation trump good sense?
Nor would a poor April augur well for the biggest hire of Wren’s tenure. Fredi Gonzalez was seen as such an obvious successor to Bobby Cox that the GM didn’t bother to interview anyone else. To suggest that the collapse was all the manager’s fault is to ignore the obvious: Gonzalez’s best starting pitchers got hurt. But when a team falls to pieces at the shank of one season and makes almost no personnel changes, the front office has essentially said: “We’ve got enough talent.” When a team believed to have enough talent doesn’t win, what usually happens?
I know, I know. A week from now, this could all be moot. The Braves could go on a tear and claim first place and Gonzalez could be managing this club for the next 15 years. It is, let’s say again, a long season. But the 2012 Braves are already on the clock.
By Mark Bradley
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317 comments Add your comment
Warmth, Love, Peace
April 9th, 2012
1:45 pm
I look at the cluster that was the Red Sox in the off-season and their 0-3 record and I still see a team that will right the ship once they get their bullpen issues settled. In fact, the Red Sox should have won 2 of 3 from the Tigers had the pen not let them down. The Tigers should be one of the best teams in the AL.
The Braves? Not even a sniff of victory over the weekend. They weren’t even really close to pulling one out. Opening day, hitting slept. Day 2, hitting still slept. Day 3, hitting slept until they were already out of it, then it sputtered out some runs but only 3 hits. The Mets? Should be one of the worst teams in the NL.
The Braves stunk it up in September of 2011, they stunk it up in Spring Training (of course Spring Training doesn’t mean anything according the experts here) and they are stinking it up now.
But hey, it’s ok. Chipper was glad they didn’t make any moves this winter. Chipper got his frat brothers back to take part in his farewell tour. It’s not about winning, it’s about how many friends you have in the clubhouse. Doesn’t matter if you win or lose, it’s how you get along at the post game spread.
Braves are a sorry team, but you can’t say they don’t get along well!
phil
April 9th, 2012
1:45 pm
Calvin = mindless drivel, as proved by using the word troll…
alex
April 9th, 2012
1:48 pm
when you don’t have 100’s of millions of dollars, you need an excellent manager and front office to be competitive…..FG is inexperienced, perhaps he could win with a talented team, this team is not very talented. As for FW, his numerous poorly performing “moves” have been well documented;again, perhaps a talented team could survive those mistakes (aka the yankees with aj burnette, throw in a kevin brown…) this team is not talented enough. As the Rumanians say: the fish stinks from the head
moboman
April 9th, 2012
1:48 pm
Im with Dewaun. Heyward needs to be in a position in the order where he will be protected and see better pitches. Like the three spot at least until Chipper gets back. I might even leave him there with Chipper hitting cleanup when he returns. Make em pitch strikes to Heyward, and he will produce. Mccann is to slow afoot to hit third. And the shift the Mets used, with the 2b playing shortfield on Bryan, worked. He better start going the other way some. All you naysayers need to get a grip. Its only been 3 games. We got our best hitter, and our best pitcher on the way back soon. Way too early for that kind of gloom and doom. Gotta believe they arent doin this in Philly and Yankee land.
Robert
April 9th, 2012
1:49 pm
It’s been way overdue for a house cleaning with this team!
Sonny Clusters
April 9th, 2012
1:51 pm
Ballplayers are some of the smartest people on earth and when we was playing ball we was a shining example of that. We was on the Honor Roll and when it was time to graduate we was asked to make a speech at the commencement ceremony. They wanted us to tip our cap to the teachers for helping us be so smart but we tricked everybody and talked about baserunning instead. Everyone seemed to enjoy it and who couldn’t use a few baserunning pointers? Diaz? Diaz? Well, we don’t hold a grudge but we still remember what happened. We was thinking if we was Fredi we’d not only teach baserunning we’d also work on hitting and bunting and throwing to the cutoff man and trying to win some ballgames again. Yes, it’s still early but you never can tell if they’re going to need one more win in September and not be able to get it. Heck, we’re not sure they’re going to win one in April.
Technically Correct
April 9th, 2012
1:53 pm
Wait’ll next year!
southern hope
April 9th, 2012
1:53 pm
I hate to say it but I would get rid of Freddi Gonzalez…when the Braves refused to even *interview* anyone other than him, it really struck me the wrong way. But I was patient. But last year….after the collapse…and the *first* thing out of his mouth was that no staff would be affected or fired? I’m sure he’s a nice person but he’s not the manager for us.
dtanner
April 9th, 2012
1:54 pm
frank wren is as big a fool as jon schuerholtz was when he was g.m.,look at some of his moves and the money he spent examples kawakami,mcclouth,gonzales
Calvin
April 9th, 2012
1:57 pm
Case in point.
@Trey – Unless you do something illegal or have the software or hardware tools to figure it out, you are pretty anonymous. I could give you my external IP right now but you would have no clue who or where I am other than my ISP is Verizon. Doesn’t matter that I’m an IT guy and am behind a firewall and am pretty well protected. The point is that people are able to say whatever they want knowing they wouldn’t say the things they say here to the faces of Chipper Jones, Frank Wren, Jason Heyward, etc.
I very well know what a troll is. I am also a gamer as well as a sports fan and IT person. Perhaps troll is not correctly used in this particular context but nonetheless, some people here seem to fit the bill…perfectly. I’ve seen some of the most childish things said here that it is just absolutely ridiculous. Even my 6 and 5 year old daughters don’t act like some of the people here.
Don’t get me wrong. I am definitely upset about how the Braves have started this season. I’m just not ready to throw in the towel and blow everything up like some people here. Saying stuff like “ballgame” after Minor gives up a lead off hit or Freeman grounds into a DP…how is that not being a troll looking to garner attention? Anyway, I’m through here. Enjoy your day!
jeffrey d
April 9th, 2012
2:03 pm
The Brave’s might have the best closer in the Business(Kimbrel)…….But what good is he if you can’t get a lead for him?
I mean, it’s not like he had the NL lead in saves.
Oh wait…
alex
April 9th, 2012
2:05 pm
@ moboman, they have PROVEN talent, we have??….(ok, McCann and a “healthy chipper”)
Larry
April 9th, 2012
2:06 pm
Mark,
Good stuff, but put some of your comments on DOB’s blog and you may get chastised or made fun of.
What an arrogant and obtuse man he has become.
pat
April 9th, 2012
2:08 pm
You need to score runs to need a closer.
7 runs in 3 days? Really? That the best major league hitters can do?
Yeah, yeah, Red Sox and Yankees lost too, but to much, much better teams than the stupid Mets.
DawginLex
April 9th, 2012
2:08 pm
I take back my prediction of 84 wins and 3rd in the East
This team might win 75 games.
Who can we get to manage this team in May when Wren runs Fredi?
Bobby Cox?
Joe Torre?
Tony LaRussa?
pat
April 9th, 2012
2:10 pm
Agree southern, nice man, lousy manager.
jpc
April 9th, 2012
2:12 pm
get ‘em, Mark.
jeffrey d
April 9th, 2012
2:12 pm
frank wren is as big a fool as jon schuerholtz was when he was g.m.,look at some of his moves and the money he spent examples kawakami,mcclouth,gonzales
Jurrjens, Uggla, Vazquez….
You mean...
April 9th, 2012
2:12 pm
…you think the Braves will lose 92 games this year. I don’t think it will be that high, but 84-86 seems plenty achievable with this lot. I see Heyward “improving” to be a .250 hitter and nothing more ,, was / is overrated. I see Chipper playing in maybe 80 games or half of his last season and I do not see him hitting as well as good ‘ol Chipper. The starting pitching will be worse than last year with a ERA +/- 4.00 . The bats will continue to strand RISP and overall will still be in the top ten worst hitting teams in majors. Fredi will still contribute more to losses vs. wins in what will be his last season. That said, I will still don my Braves cap and take my kids to the park to honor a great pastime, but will save many preicous hour tuned in on TV.
Larry
April 9th, 2012
2:14 pm
SR,
Spot dam.n on!
Kashi
April 9th, 2012
2:17 pm
Mark Bradley – Its welcome back Terry Pendelton not Larry Parrish !!!
Sonny Clusters
April 9th, 2012
2:19 pm
Ball playing is not all that hard. What’s hard is posting on a blog and the page goes flying away while you’re typing. If we was Frank Wren we would call Fredi over and say, “Fredi, we know we have been telling you what to do and we know we waited until you said something stupid (like all your coaches would be back after the EPIC collapse)before we corrected you but now’s the time to let you sink or swim.” We’re betting it’s sink. They say Roger McDowell was a big cut-up when he was playing ball and sometimes he’d give a teammate a hot foot. We was thinking to loosen things up a bit Roger might try some super glue on Fredi’s cap and see if he can tip it after the game. If the baseball’s not entertaining at least that would be funny.
JoeFan
April 9th, 2012
2:20 pm
The Braves are full of cliches and cap tipping . Time to cut ties with any player, manager or coach that is even inclined to tip their cap to the opposition. This team needs restructiiong beginning with Wren and Gonzales, right on down to McCann while he still has trade value.
jeffrey d
April 9th, 2012
2:22 pm
I can understand why people are unhappy with Fredi, but I don’t get the grief against Wren. He’s built a team with a solid foundation all while on a limited budget.
Fidel's Castro
April 9th, 2012
2:24 pm
I hear Ozzie Guillen might be available soon.
moboman
April 9th, 2012
2:25 pm
@alex , loved the Romanian saying.
I have my doubts about the “sharpness” of Freddi as well. But Im not gonna condemn the season based on three games. We made a couple of fundamental mistakes and had a few bad calls by the umps that cost us. Those calls will even out. And Freddi will realize that its better to pull a pitcher too soon than too late. Bourn shouldnt have stole home when he didnt have the jump, with one out and the 3 and 4 hitters batting. Cost us a run there.
I believe in the potential of some of our yournger players as well as the ability of most of the veterans. To those touting Lowes performance yesterday, its the same issue. Give it a coupla months and lets see where we are. One series doesnt tell you anything, nor does one pitching appearance by Lowe.
Larry
April 9th, 2012
2:28 pm
jeffrey d,
Perhaps true, but Wren didn’t bother interviewing other candidates and just took Bobby’s suggestion to replace him with his fired friend, Fredi. This is a failure of colossal proportion by a supposed respected new General Manager.
You should always compare, even if it helps to just justify your first option.
moboman
April 9th, 2012
2:30 pm
PS I still believe Lowe is a decent pitcher, and he probably did more off season prep for his new team. But he wasnt worth a spot in our roatation. We didnt lose the Mets series on pitching. We lost it at the plate.
moorman
April 9th, 2012
2:30 pm
but i thought terry pendleton was the problem……………..lol
What's yours is mine
April 9th, 2012
2:30 pm
And the problem is…..?
blazerdawg
April 9th, 2012
2:31 pm
Prado, Uggla, Freeman, McCann, Heyward
WHY can they not hit?
mike
April 9th, 2012
2:33 pm
Since everybody has written off this year…..what does 2013 look like?
ClemsonBrad
April 9th, 2012
2:38 pm
Spot on Mark. Great read.
Jackie Chiles
April 9th, 2012
2:39 pm
Calvin: “I’ve seen some of the most childish things said here that it is just absolutely ridiculous.”
Calvin, we’re not trying to split the atom here, nor are we trying to be part of the solution. Newspaper message boards are chocked full of idiotic and nonsensical dialogue….some of it might make sense, but it’s a crap shoot. Just hang with us, buddy.
YoFred!
April 9th, 2012
2:53 pm
TEE BALL practice for Braves begins early . . . need to have big turnout. Expect, at least, to learn basics of swinging bat WITH CONTACT and running all out around the bases without stopping. No pitchers need to show up.
DawgDad
April 9th, 2012
2:54 pm
“Otherwise the doubters will be in full cry, and some of that doubt will spread to the clubhouse. ”
Mark, the doubt is EMANATING from the clubhouse. Words are cheap, all you have to do is watch the Braves play. This team needs runs and hits, and longer outings by the starters, and intelligent play on the basepaths. Problem is, it does NOT have the talent. The Mets played better because they ARE better, at least they have been for the past 30 games or so. Where was the Braves answer to Wright, Tejada, Murphy, Duda? Niese? Nowhere to be found. What’s that $33 million or so going out to Lowe, Chipper, and Huddy buying right now? Are they REALLY counting on Chipper to turn this offense around? Uggla? Come on now.
Buckwheat
April 9th, 2012
3:01 pm
They are hungover from last season’s poor ending. Much like the curse of the Super Bowl loser the following year. I am not expecting much of an offensive turnaround this season.
Fidel's Castro
April 9th, 2012
3:05 pm
I hear Derek Lowe won this weekend.
(At the very least, he didn’t LOSE, unlike his former team.)
P B Orr
April 9th, 2012
3:06 pm
Since I took sensitivity training and can not only hug a tree but make it smile, I have a solution that will make everyone happy.
1) Guillen back to Venezuela
2) Cox, who is sad and bored, back to our bench
3) Fredi to Miami
Let’s all get along. Peace and happiness to all.
Bobbys' Booger
April 9th, 2012
3:11 pm
This team is an EPIC FAIL. Many yelled Sports Illustrated was crazy predicting Braves as 4th place in NL East. I said a month a ago yes that is true…SI highly over rated the Falcons and now they have overrated the Braves. This team needs an enema from top to bottom. Freddi should be gone today; actually should have been last October. This is a team that is a collective head case and it starts with this Cox era management. IT served its purpose for 15 years. Now it needs to be completely dismantled.
Bobbys' Booger
April 9th, 2012
3:14 pm
How’s my UNDER 86.5 wins in Vegas lookin? I’ll cash that in early September. What a joke of a team.
Ryan
April 9th, 2012
3:15 pm
Mark,
Anger over one’s favorite sporting team and their performance or lack thereof is a direct correlation to expectations. It’s why nobody in Kansas City would panic over an opening weekend sweep. And expectations, in turn, are a direct correlation with two things: coverage consumed and first hand knowledge. And since few of us get a glimpse behind the curtain at the latter, we are left with what we are told from the franchise an what is covered by it’s media.
So, with that in mind, can you ask John Schuerholz himself about the following statement that he made, released to fans in an open letter shortly after the Sept. collapse, and if he feels that his orgainization has “repaired its weaknesses?” This way, I can have proper expectations and keep proper perspective. Thanks.
From John Schuerholz, Oct. 6:
“However, our performance in the month of September was unacceptable to all in the organization, and we will evaluate and analyze our missteps to do all we can to prevent this from happening again. Our General Manager, Frank Wren, and his staff have already begun to evaluate our team and will be focusing throughout the off-season on building upon the strengths of this team and repairing our weaknesses to achieve our goal.”
georgiavol
April 9th, 2012
3:17 pm
Cya Fredi. A truly nice guy who can’t handle the pressure.
Trey
April 9th, 2012
3:24 pm
“I can understand why people are unhappy with Fredi, but I don’t get the grief against Wren. He’s built a team with a solid foundation all while on a limited budget.”
Jeffrey, but why should Fredi get more of the blame? He can only use what he was given from the front office. Frank could have acquired another hitter, somewhere, not just a prospect such as Francisco.
Herschel Talker
April 9th, 2012
3:39 pm
jeffrey d:
I agree. Wren has had a couple of bad free agent signings, but his trades have been good, and his hands have been tied. He has done well. Fredi, on the other hand, is an ignorant imbecile.
FIRE FREDI GONZALEZ!!!
HT
CC
April 9th, 2012
3:43 pm
Who SHOULD be the strongest player on the team — the leader? McCann. But he’s still… STILL…. swinging at armpit high pitches to strikeout instead of walk.
I give up on him. New season and he still hasn’t changed that one very bad habit.
You folks who say it’s early — HAHAHAHAHAHA!
Back last September do you think it might have made a difference if one — just one — extra game was won in both April and May? Well it also matters now too.
I haven’t yet watched a full Braves game this year. And I haven’t missed a thing worth watching.
Todd - LAwrenceville
April 9th, 2012
3:50 pm
One would think there are 14 or so guys on this blog that could spike up and do better and perhaps there is at least one skipper here too thats a better skipper. On second though, probably not; I am sure thats not the case.
It’s only one series, so please shut up and let Frank run this team and let Freddi coach.
Boonville Stomp
April 9th, 2012
3:53 pm
we look fat this year. this ain’t good.
Stinger 2
April 9th, 2012
3:55 pm
The Braves have problems off the field. It is their lack of real fans. Instead of true fans they have mostly critics who think they know how to manage the players better than Fredi. Some of these fans post really hateful comments. Ohers think they are being comical and try to hide their dislike in their negative posts. If these people would calm down and get a life they would feel better. The Braves will be fine if the fans will be patient..
Bobbys' Booger
April 9th, 2012
4:01 pm
@Todd L’ville. I nominate you for President of the Kool-aide drinkers club.
@Stinger 2 I nominate you Kool-aide boy First Class and aid to Todd L’ville. you guys are a little slow on the up take but due to the effects of the Kool-Aide we all give you a break….take a few days to sober up.