Why the stand-pat Braves soon might stand atop the NL East
The new brothers of bash? Dan Uggla and Freddie Freeman. (AJC photo by Hyosub Shin)
The collapse of September? It was, to invoke the word immediately and permanently attached, epic. But here’s the part of the 2011 season that was lost in the rubble: Despite going 8-19 in September, despite not hitting a lick all summer, the Braves still won 89 games.
A new season is at hand, and the Braves haven’t changed much. Some folks can’t understand why the roster wasn’t gutted, but here’s why: The 2011 team had to fall apart as completely as any team had ever fallen apart — 10 minutes later, the Boston Red Sox usurped that throne of shame — not to make the playoffs. As bad as they were in September, the Braves needed only to win two of their final five games to grab the wild card, and the National League wild-card winner wound up taking the World Series.
Is it outrageous to suggest that, with a bit more hitting, the 2012 Braves should win at least 90 games? (The mix-and-match melange of 2010 won 91, so that’s kind of the new baseline. Pardon the pun.) Is it unreasonable to speculate that the Phillies, who will be without Ryan Howard and Chase Utley until who knows when, won’t win 102 this time? Is it a flight of fancy to posit that the Braves are closer now to finishing atop the NL East than at any time since their reign of excellence subsided in 2006?
My answers: No, no and no. My reasons:
Better bats: The National League batting average for 2011 was .253; the Braves hit .243. Good hitters fell into deep slumps that became bad habits, and one-and-done hitting coach Larry Parrish was at a loss to offer assistance. The Braves now have two hitting coaches, each of whom should be better than Parrish. We aren’t apt to see a player of Dan Uggla’s portfolio hitting .185 through the All-Star break ever again, and someday we’ll look back at Jason Heyward’s .227 and ask, “How the heck did that happen?”
This isn’t to say the Braves are going to become the Buckhead Bombers. If you check the composition of the NL East, you’ll note that every team except the Mets, who really don’t count, stood higher in league rankings last season in pitching than in hitting. That doesn’t figure to change. Because these teams pitch so well and play each other so often, nobody figures to hit much. But the Braves have something they’ve lacked for lo these many years, and it’s …
The Bourn benefit: Trading for Michael Bourn was a deadline deal that should have propelled the Braves to the World Series. That it didn’t in 2011 doesn’t mean it can’t in 2012. Bourn is a leadoff hitter with speed, and this team hasn’t had one of those since Rafael Furcal. Does a batting order of Bourn, Martin Prado, Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Uggla, Heyward, Freddie Freeman look lousy on its face? Do you really expect such a lineup to finish 14th among NL entries in on-base percentage a second year running?
And we say again: The Braves don’t have to score in clusters to win. They proved that last season. But let’s say the Braves hit closer to .260 this season than .240: Might they win 95 games? We ask because they do have …
Big-time arms: At the All-Star break, the Braves held the second-lowest ERA in baseball. Injuries to Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson fluffed up that number over the second half, but they still finished fourth overall. Even with its September wobbles, their bullpen wound up being statistically the best in the business.
There’s no guarantee against a sore arm, but plucking Livan Hernandez from the ether offers a bit of insurance. As the Braves learned all too well, Hernandez can throw a big game against anybody anytime. (Usually it has been against the Braves.) Landing Livan is the kind of subtle move that can mean the difference between missing the playoffs by a game and winning the division. Speaking of which …
The NL East is bunching up: The Miami (nee Florida) Marlins and Washington Nationals have upgraded, but there’s no consensus as to which one looks better. Almost everyone is of the opinion that the aging and infirm Phillies will come back to the pack. That doesn’t mean Philly can’t eke out one more division title, but its time as the class of the division is nearing its end.
Chipper Jones says that the East is more balanced than he has ever seen it, and Chipper arrived in the Senior Circuit when the current East was still a sophomore. The Phillies might be too old and the Nationals too young, and the Marlins finished 30 games out of first place (and 17 behind the Braves) last season. In a division in such flux, might the team that chose continuity over change be the one that profits most?
It might. It just might.
By Mark Bradley
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132 comments Add your comment
YoungerThan ThatNow
April 4th, 2012
10:48 pm
Good column MB… and how can a REAL Braves fan not be optimistic. I hear all of these “negative nellys”, but personally I can’t consider them real fans with all of their naysayings. I’m not saying that everybody has to think that the 2012 Braves are a shoe-in for the WS trophy, but come on people… the Braves haven’t played a single meaningful game yet! Give them the benefit of the doubt, and until they prove different, believe that anything can happen… because it can! That’s why you play the games… it’s a long season and the people who make their living making decisions for this ballclub know what they’re doing. They may make a mistake, or mis-judge a player sometime… but overall they do the best they can with what they’re given to work with. The Cardinals were not the best team in baseball in 2011… but they got hot at the right time and had great momentum going into the playoffs, and they parlayed that into an unexpected World Series Championship.
Livan said that he was glad to be in a Braves uni, if for no other reason, because he didn’t have to face the Braves lineup again! Well, that works both ways… he’s made Braves hitters look terrible more times than not, and I’m glad that he’s here for insurance. And I think the Braves brass has done a good job of providing some bullpen help that will hopefully prevent a late season “wearing down” of the big 3 in the back end of the bullpen.
This team has more upside than the 2011 Braves did and overall, I’m happy with this club and ready to get it on… and as I said last night, right now everybody’s tied for first… except for the Marlins, they just dropped their opener to the Cards!
Hy Ronatt
April 4th, 2012
11:44 pm
more like cluster fark.
Bradley the Homer
April 5th, 2012
12:48 am
Could see this article coming from last year. 90% of your articles are homersitic and 90% of the time they are wrong. You are a complete joke.
John Leonard
April 5th, 2012
1:19 am
Mark;Most times your column is a fun read,this time just funny.
iTiSi
April 5th, 2012
1:22 am
Wouldn’t it be so refreshing and enlightening to have JUST ONE AJC sportswriter to actually tell it like it is, rather than do nothing but “feel good ” stories, and try to one-up the other one as to who can be the most homerific?
clay
April 5th, 2012
3:39 am
So ready for 1:05 today to get all these haters off here for a couple of days.
No. 1 Braves Fan
April 5th, 2012
4:32 am
We need to get people like Clusters who post on Braves blogs to be Braves fans. Those who post disparaging remarks about the same thing time after time need to rethink and decide where they want to go. We knew last year that Clusters does not like the division championship sign..
steve whitmire
April 5th, 2012
6:35 am
Good work Bradley, as usual, now that we’ve got that brown nosing out of the way, hope springs eternal in the minds of Braves baseball aficionados as opening day approaches and this year is no exception, so let’s play ball!
papadawg
April 5th, 2012
7:24 am
MB it’s fun to be a dreamer. Dreaming about the Braves winning more than 80 games is like dreaming about winning the 640 million dollar lottery last week.
Remember Your Rootz
April 5th, 2012
7:51 am
If Stan Kasten can scrounge up $2 BILLION, why the heck didn’t he buy the Braves?
Cecil34
April 5th, 2012
7:56 am
Mark, you need to stay out of the opium dens – they are “clouding” your judgment.
What you speak of will not happen.
Herschel Talker
April 5th, 2012
8:06 am
MB:
I would agree with you if Fredi wasn’t the manager. He is a clown and is guaranteed to screw things up.
FIRE FREDI GONZALEZ!!!
HT
JoeFan
April 5th, 2012
8:12 am
To much has to fall right for the Braves to contend. Not saying it can’t happen but odds are the Braves will be just an average team at best.
Joey
April 5th, 2012
8:21 am
What worries me most about the “Buckhead Bombers,” Mark is their inability to hit with RISP – either dead last or next to last in MLB.
If that lack of clutch hitting continues this season, it renders that “Bourn benefit” null and void. He will be left standing on 2nd or 3rd, while the Bombers flail.
M Lowenthal
April 5th, 2012
8:25 am
Mark, please quit comparing batting average to compare offensive quality. You later use on base percentage. Use slugging percentage and on base percentage so that readers get an actual picture of how the offenses compare.
Arnold Ziffel
April 5th, 2012
8:37 am
Where your logic is wrong is assuming the Braves would have won the WS- as the Cards did- had they won the WC spot. They clearly would not have and that’s why standing pat this year is a slap in the face to all paying fans. Braves are cheap and are are only interested in “making” the playoffs not winning in the playoffs. This is why they havent had a series win in the postseason for 7 years and campaign on concession deals instead of making the team better. This year will be more of the same. I wont be wasting my money down at the Ted but feel free to waste yours.
Snake doc
April 5th, 2012
8:57 am
This is a joke – Right?
dtanner
April 5th, 2012
8:59 am
mark you are the consumate homer,always overrating the local teams and underrating all others,the braves will be mediocre and finish mid pack
DePort
April 5th, 2012
9:00 am
You Braves haters will eat your words by the end of the season!!!
jjGator
April 5th, 2012
9:07 am
Good optimistic article, Mark! Agree with your comments. A thought–while I like Freddie as our mgr, I have to lay some blame on him for his choice of a hitting instructor last season. But, will give him the benefit of the doubt as he most likely wanted a reasonable way to reassign TP and he did show loyalty to his previous hitting instructor in Miami. I believe he will continue his learning curve and be a better mgr as time goes on! Go Braves!!
dc74
April 5th, 2012
9:14 am
Bradley you never learn…
Brave Hokie
April 5th, 2012
9:23 am
It’s the Braves: what can go wrong will go wrong: be it June, Sept, or Oct… till my last breath
Najeh Davenpoop
April 5th, 2012
9:58 am
If everything goes right for the Braves, they can win the division and go far in the playoffs. The advantage of having a big payroll like Philly, though, is that everything doesn’t have to go right for them.
Hope sprung a leak
April 5th, 2012
10:00 am
Did I just read that Livan Hernandez can be the difference between making the playoffs and sitting at home. If there was ever a sign that this Braves team has taken a step back, it was their bargain hunting for pitchers from the castoffs of the Astros and Nationals and both of those bums making the opening day roster. Meanwhile Kris Medlen is pitching in middle relief while a rookie who didn’t show anything in the spring is in the rotation. Livan Hernandez the difference-maker? Really?
Jackie Chile
April 5th, 2012
10:15 am
As long as we have Chipper standing like a statue at 3rd for 60-80 games we’ll be just fine.
ClemsonBrad
April 5th, 2012
10:18 am
Happy Opening Day!
P Rose
April 5th, 2012
10:21 am
Sorry for the re-post, but this got into Mark’s last column late yesterday; this is for those who missed it.
It’s a Hard Rain’s Gonna Fall
Oh where has it gone, that 14-year run?
And where has it gone, when baseball was fun
I seen an epic collapse and an idle off-season
I seen washed-up relievers get signed for no reason
I seen thousands of seats that were empty as oceans
I seen millionaire infielders go through the motions
And it’s a hard, it’s a hard, it’s a hard, it’s a hard,
It’s a hard rain’s a-gonna fall
Oh where has it gone, that pride in our team?
That once could compete like the girls on the Dream
I seen men fanny-pattin’ and squeezin’ and huggin’
I seen a manager tippin’ his cap and a-shruggin’
I seen tool races, kiss cams and discounted hot dogs
I seen clusters of sonnies complain on these chop blogs
I seen Cardinals scrap like a cat in a dog fight
I seen a game-winnin’ grounder get lost in the spotlight
I seen fans from the North in the Ted celebratin’
I seen Braves fans a-watchin’ and hopin’ and waitin’
And it’s a hard, it’s a hard, it’s a hard, it’s a hard,
It’s a hard rain’s a-gonna fall
oldguy
April 5th, 2012
10:27 am
All we hear about is how much and how wonderful ALL our pitchers are but then we sign 1 pitcher that must be 121 yrs old and one with lifetime ERA over 5.Why dont er ever hear about that big slugger we drafted?,,,,BECAUSE WE NEVER DO DRAFT ANY….TO HUNG UP ON ANOTHER PITCHER.
Don
April 5th, 2012
10:38 am
“Big Time Arms” – I agree that the Braves “had” Big Time Arms – and no question – Pitching is the Name Of The Game – by far the most significant element to winning.
BUT remember, FOUR out of the FIVE of those “Big Time Arms ” (4 out of 5 of the Starting Pitchers – counting Medlen who was a Starter when he was injured) are COMMING OFF INJURES.
And like it or not (unlike Position Players), many (perhaps most) Pitchers do NOT RETURN TO THEIR FORMER GREATNESS after serious injury.
The Braves will be fortunate if TWO of the FOUR return to their former effectiveness.
True, the Braves have a wealth of ADDITIONAL young Pitching talent, and this may be enough to get them through this season in good shape.
But, will these young Pitchers soon follow the other Braves Pitchers through the Braves “INJURY MILL FOR PITCHERS” that has existed for the last several years???
Since Leo left as Pitching Coach 6 or 7 years ago; — The Braves have had a large number of different Strting Pitchers. Counting those who have been in the rotation a reasonable length of time, HOW MANY of this large total of Startign Pitchers have NOT ENDED UP BEING INJURED???
Don
April 5th, 2012
10:49 am
Agree that the Braves should get off to a good start. The first part of their schedule is really, really weak.
buster brave
April 5th, 2012
10:52 am
Well put Mark Bradley.
cloudodust
April 5th, 2012
11:04 am
MB : I too subscribe to the theory of Hope Springs Eternal. Until proven otherwise, I remain….
Rags
April 5th, 2012
11:09 am
Look, here’s the issue. The only way we’ll be able to see if this year’s Braves are better than last year’s Braves will be for them to be one of the four best teams in baseball on September 1st and then not collapse again. We still have 5 months to wait and see if they’re better. We’ll know sooner if they’re worse than last year, but until September 1st we will not know if they’re better. That’s a long wait, and that’s why so many of the folks I know who used to rabid Braves fans and taking a wait-and-see attitude with this year’s team.
DawginLex
April 5th, 2012
11:11 am
Mark
Would love to see the Braves win the division but I’m not seeing it.
No Chipper
Rookie SS
Injured starting pitching
Underachieving manager
3rd place and 84 wins is my guess
Hope I’m wrong!!!!!!!
Tumbledown
April 5th, 2012
11:19 am
We get it, Don. Do you have to post the same thing in every blog?
Don
April 5th, 2012
11:30 am
“The Braves have fewer “Ifs” than the other teams.”
Right “IF” YOU DON’T COUNT”
IF we didn’t have FOUR out of our FIVE Starting Pitchrers (counting Medlen who was a Starter when he was Injured) ALL COMMING OFF INJURIES.
What IF 2 out of the 4 to not return to their former greatness??
What IF 3 out of the 4 do not returen to being effective?
What IF ALL FOUR of them do not return to their former effectiveness?
(And like it or not, MANY (perhaps most) TIMES PITCHERS do not after serious injury.
AND IF, Heyward’s offensive production is like a major league corner outfielder instead of not even being good enough to be a reserve 4th or 5th outfielder. What basis is there to think that it will – when he showed no signs of making adjustments once pitchers learned how to pitch to him.
AND IF Chipper suddenly starts playing acceptable defense at third base – to say nothing of IF his hitting will give acceptable production – or how many games he will be able to play.
AND IF the rookie shortstop will give acceptable offensive production – even assuming that his defense is adequate.
AND IF the second baseman unlike last season has an acceptable batting average and an acceptable On Base Average.
AND IF Fredi is really a better manager than Bobby Cox (that needs to be SIGNIFICANTLY better).
AND IF the new hitting coaches can really get the job done. There are very, very few really good hitting coaches – Do we have one of them?
AND IF we have a productive left fielder to fill in for Prado when he has to play 3rd for Chipper
AND IF the Braves “INJURY MILLL FOR PITCHERS” that has existed in 6 or 7 years since Leo left as Pitching Coach – does not continue. (Since Leo left, of all the large number of different Starting Pitchers that we have had, how many have NOT BEEN INJURED??
AND ALL THIS ASSUMES that we will get good production from the catcher, the first baseman, the center fielder and from Prado.
pete babcock
April 5th, 2012
11:36 am
hitting wasn’t the problem at the end of the season, it was the pitching. Hitting wasn’t present all year
reckingball
April 5th, 2012
11:45 am
STH@10:44pm………The Braves can win this div. and the WS.
How many of the “experts” predicted that the Giants would win it all, a couple of years ago?
You and you’re defeatist buddies want to bad mouth the Braves at every opportunity, that is your choice.
You down and out, gloom and doomers can’t realize, that with all of the injuries, some bizzare in-game moves by the manager, a SS that could not buy a hit with RISP, a wore-out $15million pitcher, and a lot of plan old bad luck, they were just 2 wins from at least, making it into the playoffs last year.
Ban yourself, loser.
reckingball
April 5th, 2012
11:50 am
I’m thankfull, that the men that fought for us in WW2, did not possess the defeatist attitude, that so many of these ’someone peed in my cornflakes” commenters own.
reckingball
April 5th, 2012
11:53 am
BTW, this tool-bar at the bottom blows.
Splendid Splinter
April 5th, 2012
12:52 pm
I hope you’re right MB. I think the season will hinge on Freeman and Heyward. Uggla will hit, although not much for average; Prado will be better than last year; McCann will have a better year than last year, Chipper will be lucky to play 100 games. If Freeman avoids the sophomore slump, and Heyard hits 280, I think they have enough pitching to make the playoffs and maybe win the division. If all of those things don’t come together, look out 4th place.
reebok
April 5th, 2012
1:48 pm
These discussions always come around to the same thing…if every player on the roster plays at their highest level ever, we will win it all! Well, that’s true of every team. Braves 3rd or 4th in the division.
GTT
April 5th, 2012
2:07 pm
Injuries to Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson fluffed up that number over the second half
Don’t forget Derek Lowe’s culpability.
Appalachia Brave
April 5th, 2012
2:08 pm
oh boy…here we go again…this type article comes out every daggone year! This guy must get commission on ticket sales. I’ve seen it year after year..I’ll beleive it when I see it….If they don’t get it done this year…FRANK and his entire staff have to go. And hopefully liberty media with them!
Mitchell
April 5th, 2012
2:09 pm
Why the stand-pat Braves soon might stand atop the NL East
4:51 pm April 4, 2012, by Mark Bradley
Soon… Might… ?
Way to put yourself out there Mark Bradley.
I’m gonna hold you to that. Soon might.
Could maybe.
Strong words.
Joey
April 5th, 2012
2:35 pm
Joey
April 5th, 2012
8:21 am
What worries me most about the “Buckhead Bombers,” Mark is their inability to hit with RISP – either dead last or next to last in MLB.
If that lack of clutch hitting continues this season, it renders that “Bourn benefit” null and void. He will be left standing on 2nd or 3rd, while the Bombers flail.
************************************************************
Anbody see the 5th inning?
Like I said @ 8:21 . . .
Mister Frisky
April 5th, 2012
2:56 pm
Another steamer delivered to your door by the AJC.
Warmth, Love, Peace
April 5th, 2012
3:07 pm
“Why the stand-pat Braves soon might stand atop the NL East”
or not
Buster Cluster
April 5th, 2012
4:43 pm
Why not just quit all the if’s, and’s and but’s and let the season play out? What’s the use? All those questions have a way of answering themselves come the end of September. Ya’ll are like a bunch of women with all your analyzing, re-analyzing and over-analyzing, and re-over-analyzing.
What's yours is mine
April 5th, 2012
4:47 pm
If a frog had wings he wouldn’t bump his butt every time he jumped.