Fearsome forecast: SI rates Braves fourth-best in the NL East
Sports Illustrated's preview cover. Note: Albert Pujols does not play for the Braves. (Photo by Robert Beck)
Well, here’s a cheery note. Sports Illustrated picks the Atlanta Braves, who had a lot of things go wrong last season and still won 89 games, to win 82 in 2012. (I’d offer a link, but SI.com hasn’t posted one yet.) This total, in SI’s estimation, will enable the Braves to finish fourth in a five-team division.
SI’s projected National League East finish:
- Phillies, 94-68
- Marlins, 89-73 (wild card)
- Nationals, 84-78
- Braves, 82-80
- Mets, 75-87
More glad tidings: SI sees the Braves finishing with the 10th-best record in the 16-team National League and the 17th-best (tied with the Kansas City Royals, actually) in baseball. I believe I can speak for us all when I say: Yikes.
I’m on record as believing the Braves’ spring-training record — after a 1-10-1 start, they’re up to 6-13-3; if this were hockey, they’d have 15 points — means less than nothing, but Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports has written that (unnamed) “rival executives believe that [manager Fredi] Gonzalez … already is on probation.”
Given that the first real game is still 13 days off, we shouldn’t read too much into anything just yet. But it’s not unreasonable to suggest that general manager Frank Wren, who before this offseason wasn’t known for his patience, might be forced to do something soon — and I’m not talking so much about firing Fredi G. as making a personnel move or two — if his team looks tepid through April.
Wren likes his roster very much. He doesn’t think this is a fourth-place team. He thinks these Braves should win 90 (or so) games, not 82. But not everyone agrees.
By Mark Bradley
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357 comments Add your comment
Stinger
March 23rd, 2012
7:18 pm
Frank Wren is a deer in headlights…he don’t have a clue of what to do….Bring Bobby back to make the moves…or shuerholz…he still there…Wren has to go!
RoyU
March 23rd, 2012
7:19 pm
Did someone say that the Braves cannot afford an injury? What kind of odds will Vegas give you on Chipper not getting hurt or too tired to play at some point? I love the guy and what he has meant to the Braves, but he is a “built in “hurt”" almost guaranteed! I hope I am wrong and if so, the Braves could take it all. Chipper’s 2012 will likely reflect how the Braves will do in 2012!!!
Disgusted
March 23rd, 2012
7:20 pm
The problems are not necessarily Frank Wren and Freddi G.
Its Liberty Cheapedia.
The good thing is that you do not win pennants and championships with predictions.
It will take great luck and health for them to just maintain 89 or 90 wins.
The apologists can say they were this and that for 5 months but the bottom line is they they blew it. And that goes for the hallowed Kimbrell and Venters duo who ran out of gas late.
Kimbrell stunk in September as most of the team did, and those kids did not pick it up. It was not good enough.
The Braves deserve to be Booed on opening day.
Whopper Dawg
March 23rd, 2012
7:25 pm
Too many ifs for this team to perform well.
Fredi hasn’t impressed me a bit. I would call Bobby and ask him if he can get me through this year. And I would call him today.
YoungerThan ThatNow
March 23rd, 2012
7:42 pm
Well MB… Harold Reynolds picked the Braves to win the NL East and personally, I think more of his opinion than that of the SI folks!
STH
March 23rd, 2012
8:08 pm
Stinger2 give it a rest. No one gives a damn. And no more idiots quoting the record in Aug. The season ended in Sept. It was a historic collapse that has FG fingerprints for eternity. He’s in over his head. Anyone with even a moderate baseball background sees it AND knows it.
Disgusted
March 23rd, 2012
8:08 pm
If the Braves has won one more game would the Fredi critics be as harsh as they are on him right now?
Not saying Fredi is great but there are managers who could have done worse with what he had to work with.
Blame Liberty Cheapedia and Time Warner for the current state of the franchise. It was TW that got us in that louy TV deal and Liberty is biding their time before they flip this team.
The sooner the better. Pls let it not be more corporate ownership.
STH
March 23rd, 2012
8:12 pm
Disgusted- YES. I would. The examples are simply to long to list. However, he is not the only problem.
Triple Lindy
March 23rd, 2012
8:32 pm
I’m feeling cautiously optimistic about the Bravos this year (as i always do). Second place in the division and into that extremely dumb play-in game. I have a feeling the Nats are the new Mets; they’ll be competitive, but I’m not confident they’ll pull out a play-off spot. The Mets are the best Tripple A club I’ve seen. The Marlins are Just a hot mess. It’s gonna be like a reality show on the diamond and I wouldn’t expect anything less from Jeffery Loria — he runs that club like a sleazy South Beach night club. The Phils are the Phils. I see a repeat of the 2010 season, marred by injury at first and then dominant in the second half only to fail in the playoffs.
Willy
March 23rd, 2012
8:46 pm
I think we finish first. The phillies will be banged up all year. The marlins will have chemistry and clubhouse issues. The nationals are still a couple years away. And the Mets, well there the Mets. We should be good.
Nativebird
March 23rd, 2012
8:49 pm
If their high draft cHoice savior to be JASON HeYWARd does not step up and be the big time allstar next chipper jones major leaguer like they bet the farm that he would be…all of this debate is worthless. Why is NO ONE TALKING ABOUT THE UNDERPERFORMING WONDER KID WHO Was supposed TO BE THE BRAVES FUTURE? Hugh?
all for one.....
March 23rd, 2012
8:56 pm
Braves have to find professional top 10 to 20 hitters. We were sorry last year. l must see major improvement this year to keep my interest. We could not get men in from third base with less than 2 outs, etc. last year. We have to get job done in situational hitting or expect the worse. Sorry just how l see it.
MitchC
March 23rd, 2012
8:58 pm
Mark, the Braves will have a hangover effect this season from their disgraceful September 2011, and from blowing the huge wild card lead. Look what happened to the Mets in 2007 and 2008., They’ve never been heard from again.
The Braves are very old in spots, and also injury prone. Kimbrel had a great year last year, but will he have a soph slump? How will Heyward do?
The Braves will finish third or fourth. Either they will be ahead of the Nats, or the Nats will be ahead of them. 500 is a real possiblity. If Fredi G does make it through the season, I think he will be gone at the end of the year.
GOP Cannon
March 23rd, 2012
8:59 pm
I agree and disagree with the article. I agree that there is reason to doubt the Braves given last year’s collapse… the exact same product is being put on the field and the team is expecting a different result. What’s worse, is we are playing exactaly the same in spring training as we did in September. This has not inspired a lot of confidence for 2012.
I disagree the article on where the NL East teams will finish up.
DetroitBraves
March 23rd, 2012
9:00 pm
For whatever it’s worth, BP had the Braves projected to finish second and win a wildcard last I looked. But it was really close. The Marlins and Nats were right there. While only winning 72 games or so, as some have suggested on this blog, seems overly pessimistic finishing 4th is certainly possible. Agree with George Stein, it’s not likely the bullpen is as good this year as last (which isn’t to say it won’t be good) and there are already issues with the pitching depth in both the rotation and pen. On the other hand, there were several under-performing hitters that are likely to do better this year. We’ll see how it turns out. I think the Braves will finish better than 4th but SI’s prediction is reasonable.
I won’t call Fredi Gonzalez any names, Stinger2 has a point about that, but I would like to add in a tightly bunched, competitive division the Braves are at a disadvantage at the manager position. Most seasons that may not even matter that much, but if the top 4 teams are really within just a few games of each other it could mean everything in this season.
Fats OKelly
March 23rd, 2012
9:05 pm
Bones Jones needs to go out with a championship. Enough of his attention grabbing soap operas
suds52
March 23rd, 2012
9:19 pm
Fire Fredi G.? Who hired Greg Walker??? While Gonzalez is no Bobby Cox, Frank Wren pales in comparison with Schuerlolz. The hitting this Spring is terrible and I see Walker / Wren as the culprits there.
jeffrey d
March 23rd, 2012
9:23 pm
Considering that in 2011 the Braves went 89-73 with a broken down pitching staff, an overworked bullpen, injuries to McCann and Prado, and a roster that included Lowe and McLouth, I don’t see how this team would regress to 82 wins
Ricky Bobby
March 23rd, 2012
9:24 pm
phoenix”They’re right on the money. This is not a championship-caliber team. Not even close. Poor team speed, below-average defense, not much power, and a banged-up starting rotation. 82-80 might be optimistic.” Possibly the dumbest comment i have seen. Team speed- michael bourn guaranteed 50-60 stolen bases, plus jose constanza is just as fast and can be a pinch runner at any point. defense- doesn’t win games and a lot of errors last year were due to alex gonzalez who we got rid of. Power- Freeman looks promising will probably get 20 hrs, even if heyward doesn’t bounce back and get 20, uggla is a guaranteed at least 30 which he did last year in what everyone would agree was a bad season for him. plus mccann can easily hit 25 homeruns so the power is definately there. Starting rotation- definitely the most depth on the team, braves can afford to have starting pitchers injured. we got rid of our worst starter derek lowe. tim hudson is still an elite pitcher, jair jurjjens when healthy can do what he did first half of last year. even if jair isn’t healthy hanson has tweaked his mechanics to keep him healthy and beachy is a hard thrower than get give solid innings. if any of them get injured there is still mike minor, a great lefty arm, julio teheran a top prospect and randall delgado another decent prospect. The comment earlier by phoenix was very dumb.
Hillbilly D
March 23rd, 2012
9:32 pm
It’s a little premature to be calling for Greg Walker’s head after 2-3 weeks of Spring Training.
iBall
March 23rd, 2012
9:38 pm
Don’t get too excited. Not much will change with this team! You get what you see in the spring. Bet on it!
Lmichael
March 23rd, 2012
9:42 pm
I think 4th is about right. We are depending on the pitching, but they are all subject to to go on the 15 day DL at any time. The hitting is really poor. I just can’t see how we can finish any better than 4th.
Dr. Phil
March 23rd, 2012
9:43 pm
It is probably better to be picked 4th by SI than 1st, considering past history. The Braves will not overcome the Phillies, but they may end up 2nd. Fredi has used a lot of minor league pitchers this spring. They may surprise us.
Disgusted
March 23rd, 2012
9:50 pm
Jeffrey d–I can see the Braves regressing to 82 wins for a couple of reasons.
1) Venters, Kimbrell and O’Flaherty who were remendous for 5 months last yr should still be good, but not as spectacular as 2011. They were beyond exceptional for 5 mos.
2) You do not know how healthy that Hudson will be, Jurjjens is a Q mark from what we have seen in the Spring and the Braves are going to be relying on kid pitchers who will be in their learning curve. Perhaps Minor picks some of the slack, but he is very young too. Hanson is prolly the most sure thing in the rotation now.
3) Shortstop is a big big Q mark right now.
The team did not get better in the off seson while other teams worked on improving themselves.
So its not unreasonable to predict 82 wins for this team. And the September hangover is there until the players go out and break it. Rest assured that when things do not go well, they will be reminded of it and they should.
smallmouth6
March 23rd, 2012
9:51 pm
Braves are going to have a good year.
Disgusted
March 23rd, 2012
9:53 pm
One thing I disagree with the SI article is that I have the Nats winning the division and the Fish being in the wild card.
I have the Phillies slipping back and finishing third with 86 W. Then, the Braves with 82 W.
braveslover
March 23rd, 2012
10:03 pm
Yes, fourth sounds about right. Too complacent, too everyone covering everyone’s back. That’s ok in war and police but somebody’s got to step up and call out guys when necessary. Where’s Smoltzie when you need him? No fire, no guts, and again this year no glory. Chipper’s needed a kick in the honey for years now and his approach to the game has ruined our new guys. Where’s Shurltholtz philosophy of “I don’t want major leaguers, I want All Stars”? I guess we’ll be suffering through this year then get a Socia type manager and some players who have fire in their bellies and want to play the game right.
Chop Chop
March 23rd, 2012
10:13 pm
People are tired of the Braves’ act. They’ve been tired of the Braves’ act for many years now. If you’re always picking them to do something and they don’t do it, why pick ‘em to do anything?
Farnsworthy
March 23rd, 2012
10:51 pm
I think SI has it about right. 4th place sounds correct for this no hittin bunch with staring pitching issues; certainly no better than 3rd.
Farnsworthy
March 23rd, 2012
10:52 pm
…..’starting’ pitching issues
Gritsfed
March 24th, 2012
12:59 am
Actually this might be a fun season because of little expectations. NO expectations to do better than 4th in the NL East. I think SI has it just about right. Face it, the Braves are going to be stuck in this situation until Liberty Media sells this team to a (or a few) owner(s) with local interest and willing to spend more than 90 million $$ per annum.
Mitchell
March 24th, 2012
3:21 am
Mark, do you actually have thoughts and opinions of your own or are you at the point in your career where you just sit there and do nothing until somebody who actually contributes to the craft of sports journalism takes a side and offers an informed commentary?
What is the point of this?
The Braves have done nothing since 2005 but validate those who choose to bet against them. They continually prove writers and pundits right, not wrong, for doubting them.
SI has every reason to put the Braves at fourth. This organization has lost all credibility and they embarrassed themselves even more than the Red Sox who reacted to their September collapse by firing the first manager in their history since the nineteen teens to deliver a championship.
See, cause in Boston they don’t just talk about being committed to winning. They show it.
Frank Wren chose to fire Larry Parrish two days after the season, long after it could have made a difference, and essentially the entire sports world laughed at us under their breath.
At least the Red Sox got made fun of on TV. Lucky!
We, of course, used to be committed to winning but nowadays standing pat is where it’s at!
The fact that Frank Wren could essentially be celebrated in the media for literally “doing nothing” in the off-season following one of the worst September collapses in baseball history (as he was several times in the AJC) is all the proof needs as to why Atlanta is the worst sports town on planet earth.
Mark, if you think the Braves are better than a fourth place finish then you should have already said so yourself. Or take this opportunity to say so now.
What needs to be said is that if this team fails to improve upon the 91 wins of Bobby Cox’s final season a second year in a row and misses out on the playoffs again, forget about probation for Fredi Gonzalez and Frank Wren… they’re on Double Secret Probation!
That means finding somebody else to kiss their ***** for being ineffectual failures. Preferably somewhere far, far away.
Packer Ed
March 24th, 2012
8:15 am
Can we sell Brave stock like the Green Bay Packers do to raise money and get a real Team?
Thanks for the budget Liberty Media.
tdmorgan
March 24th, 2012
8:27 am
They have the Phillies with 94 wins without their 2 middle of the order bats indefinitely. I know that they have 3 aces in their rotation, but they struggled to score runs last year at times, and without Howard and Utley for who knows how long and an aging roster, they are going to have to play a lot of small ball.
wins-by-a-link
March 24th, 2012
10:33 am
Please understand the problem with the Braves, Its not FG and its certainly not FW, Who is a very capable GM, Its the present owners of the Braves, Liberty Media who have stated that they bought the Braves for a tax break and show no interest in winning championships, FW is and has been under budget constraints and is unable to secure the players necessary to compete with the likes of the Phillies and now the Marlins, Braves are unlikely to win Division title and now the wild card may be out of reach, Don’t expect much as long as Liberty Media is in the picture.
Braves Fan since 1957
March 24th, 2012
10:53 am
Baseball fans across the nation are so tired of the Braves.
The Braves will not be lovable like the Cubs because the braves had many opportunties to win.
Pray for a new, real owner.
vesaversa
March 24th, 2012
10:56 am
The empty seat syndrome will start early this year. How low is management are willing to drop the price of tickets sales ?
Stephen
March 24th, 2012
11:08 am
Didn’t SI pick the Falcons to win the Super Bowl last year? Yeah, that didn’t happen either. SI doesn’t know anything.
..An inmate at a correctional facility
March 24th, 2012
2:03 pm
Talk about coincidences….Chipper “announces” his retirement…then a few days later, has knee surgery to repair an injury that “supposedly” happened an hour before the “announcement”? Whatever….
Up until 3 years ago…I really respected and appreciated Chipper Jones and what he did for the Braves. If he had been honest and said that he was sticking around because he wanted to get the $42 mil over the past three years he was owed…I’d have totally respected his honesty (and would have not blamed him for sticking around).
However, he did what a lot of players do….LIE by saying “I love the game, I want to go out on top” garbage that is a substitute for saying “I want to get paid”.
I lost respect for Chipper for lying to you easy saps who just lap it up like a dog does affection from its owner. I place the blame for Chipper being in a position to stick around like this….on Braves management for not having the foresight to see that just because a 36 year old wins a batting title…does not meant that he’s going to replicate that feat to the turn of him being worth $42 mil over the following three seasons….especially when it’s been since 2003 when he last played in over 140 games.
Braves management’s inability to make the tough decisions FOR US (the TRUE Braves fans who place WINNING over most of you poor sap’s unyielding allegiance to the player) has hindered their ability to truly improve the club.
I guess that the only “positive” that comes out of this…is that Chipper stays on the DL for all of 2012….and we give someone a chance to play third (Prado) who has more fielding range than a turtle….as well as someone who can hit third who actually puts fear into the opposing pitcher and can consistently hit third without needing every other day off for one nagging injury after another (like Freddie Freeman).
We need to get lucky and get an unknown that comes from nowhere and carries us like in the first half of 2010 (Troy Glaus-like) who can play left field (the combo of Diaz-Hinske simply isnt going to get it done).
As of now…we have gaping holes in Left, Right (Heyward simply has shown no ability to adjust to the inside pitches that MLB is going to bust him with time after time), Short (come on, Pastornicky or Simmons will both make Andres Thomas look like Barry Larkin in comparison).
After the top 5 spots of the order….it will look like 2009 all over again (you know, when Kelly Johnson, Jeff Francoeur and company were stinking up the place in the first half of the season).
BullDogMike
March 25th, 2012
8:52 am
No clutch hitters in line up ( especially to bat behind McCann ), added by being managed ( and I use the term with caution) by Freddy G. equals SI being about right I’m afraid.
Stumpknocker
March 25th, 2012
11:25 am
Braves are nothing more than a tax write off for Liberty Media and will never be able to compete with the high dollar teams in the league. Time was I loved my Braves second to none…….. but I’ve gotten old and those a%%holes at Liberty have strangled the life out of them, so I’m thinking there are better ways of spending the hot summer than being disappointed by following a choked down handicapped ball club..
sburk
March 25th, 2012
12:28 pm
WELL, the will be third in the east and with that ten dollar pay roll they have if the injury bug bites they swoon by JUNE.
Ozzie
March 25th, 2012
2:10 pm
Excellent post Ken Stallings and right on the money.
labalt
March 25th, 2012
7:06 pm
wasnt it someone from SI who picked a falcons – chargers super bowl?
Powder Blue
March 26th, 2012
11:10 am
Better get used to losing with this ownership.
BravesSox
March 26th, 2012
12:53 pm
I am really concerned with the offense. I see them same kind of stale offense as last year and maybe worse considering having and unproven SS that can’t hit worries me, not saying we had much at the position last year with Gonzalez. Go with Wilson at SS and send those rookies back for more seasoning in the minors. I just don’t see Heyward making an impact anytime soon, because if you look back at his rookie season, he struggled mightly as pitchers found out his weakness. I also wish Freddi uses Bourne speed this year as I am so fed up with the station to station base running and for Gods sake stop taking these young pitcher out after 4 or 5 innings when they are pitchen a decent game and burning up the bullpen.
gordonguy1969
March 26th, 2012
1:44 pm
Let’s all remember that the majority of their “experts” picked the Red Sox to win the AL championship last year. It is what it is – a prediction.
gordonguy1969
March 26th, 2012
1:55 pm
Another thought here – I find it interesting that everyone talks about the Braves and Red Sox swooning at the end of last year, but no one brings up the Phillies collapse. They lost 8 of their last 12 games, and had they not been playing the slumping Braves at the end of the season it could’ve been worse. Then, they lost 3 out of 5 to the streaking Cardinals. How does that bode for their season?
Odelay
March 26th, 2012
2:13 pm
The winner of this division is the team that stays healthy. That’s all it’s going to take. I honestly can’t even begin to predict which team that’s going to be. What a crapshoot.
I do know one thing, though, I’ll be ‘chopping through all 162. Opening Day can’t get here soon enough.
BOBBY MIZELLE
March 26th, 2012
2:47 pm
THE BRAVES, IN MY OPINION, ARE VERY CAPABLE OF MAKING THE PLAYOFFS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER,KEEPING INJURIES TO A MINIMUM IS THE KEY ELEMENT. OUR MELTDOWN LAST YEAR WAS DUE TO EXCESSIVE INJURIES TO KEY PERSONNEL. STAY IN SHAPE, STAY HEALTHY, THE BRAVES CAN BE A FORCE IN OUR DIVISION.