Fearsome forecast: SI rates Braves fourth-best in the NL East
Sports Illustrated's preview cover. Note: Albert Pujols does not play for the Braves. (Photo by Robert Beck)
Well, here’s a cheery note. Sports Illustrated picks the Atlanta Braves, who had a lot of things go wrong last season and still won 89 games, to win 82 in 2012. (I’d offer a link, but SI.com hasn’t posted one yet.) This total, in SI’s estimation, will enable the Braves to finish fourth in a five-team division.
SI’s projected National League East finish:
- Phillies, 94-68
- Marlins, 89-73 (wild card)
- Nationals, 84-78
- Braves, 82-80
- Mets, 75-87
More glad tidings: SI sees the Braves finishing with the 10th-best record in the 16-team National League and the 17th-best (tied with the Kansas City Royals, actually) in baseball. I believe I can speak for us all when I say: Yikes.
I’m on record as believing the Braves’ spring-training record — after a 1-10-1 start, they’re up to 6-13-3; if this were hockey, they’d have 15 points — means less than nothing, but Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports has written that (unnamed) “rival executives believe that [manager Fredi] Gonzalez … already is on probation.”
Given that the first real game is still 13 days off, we shouldn’t read too much into anything just yet. But it’s not unreasonable to suggest that general manager Frank Wren, who before this offseason wasn’t known for his patience, might be forced to do something soon — and I’m not talking so much about firing Fredi G. as making a personnel move or two — if his team looks tepid through April.
Wren likes his roster very much. He doesn’t think this is a fourth-place team. He thinks these Braves should win 90 (or so) games, not 82. But not everyone agrees.
By Mark Bradley
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357 comments Add your comment
Bama Aaron
March 23rd, 2012
1:38 pm
The Braves basically did nothing while the rest of the division made moves to improve. It’s hard to argue SI’s logic in that respect. Personally I hope Chipper can stay healthy 1 last time and lead them to 90 or so wins to at least get the wildcard.
steve
March 23rd, 2012
1:40 pm
Spot on… 82-80 sounds about right for a middle of the pack, mediocre team with a shrinking payroll.
Peter
March 23rd, 2012
1:45 pm
NL East
Phillies
Braves (WC1)
Nationals
Marlins
Mets
NL Central
Cardinals
Reds
Brewers
Cubs
Pirates
Astros
NL West
Diamondbacks
Rockies (WC2)
Giants
Dodgers
Padres
AL East
Yankees
Rays (WC1)
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Orioles
AL Central
Tigers
Indians
Royals
Twins
White Sox
AL West
Angels
Rangers (WC2)
Mariners
Athletics
The Sertoma Kid
March 23rd, 2012
1:50 pm
Wish we still playewd in the NL West.
The Sertoma Kid
March 23rd, 2012
1:50 pm
“played”
Steveo
March 23rd, 2012
1:51 pm
Why should anyone believe what those Bozos at SI say….I mean look at their track record…..if anything this tells me the Braves should be WS winners….
bry
March 23rd, 2012
1:54 pm
Spring training means absolutely nothing. Braves are solid. They will challenge for the division.
Bubba Mutt
March 23rd, 2012
1:57 pm
The Marlins in second…..with all the Latinos…sure…right….uh huh…..1st time that nut manager’s son goes off on Reyes or someone else watch the fireworks
BravesBoy
March 23rd, 2012
1:58 pm
Braves probably squeak by Washington this year. Marlins could be great, or could explode – Ozzie and Zambrano would make a great show in mud wrestling. Braves could get lucky and finish second. But they are on the downhill slide. No money for the big team, no money for the farm system. The demon seed is Liberty. We should go to every home game with signs saying SELL THIS TEAM.
O-my
March 23rd, 2012
1:58 pm
NL West
Phillies*
Marlins
Braves
Nationals
Mets
NL East
Cards
Reds
Brewers
Pirates
Cubs
Astros
NL West
Diamondbacks
Giants
Dodgers
Rockies
Padres
AL East
Rays*
Yankees
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Orioles
AL Central
Tigers
Royals
Indians
Twins
White Sox
AL West
rangers
Angels
Mariners
Oakland
*Phillies vs Rays in WS
Anonomous
March 23rd, 2012
2:01 pm
4th behind Phillies, Marlins, and Nats….that’s about right.
frank
March 23rd, 2012
2:03 pm
I think the Braves will finish 3rd in the NL East not 4th.
DawgDad
March 23rd, 2012
2:03 pm
I’d pick the Braves fourth right now, with about 72-75 wins. The Marlins were better last year until they got beat up, then they were better again in September. The question is whether or not the Nats are going to play winning baseball.
The Braves did virtually nothing to help themselves over the winter and they’ve regressed in several areas (Hudson, JJ, shortstop, Chipper’s health, investing more than 10% of the payroll just to keep a player off the roster; another 15% of the payroll is invested in a [hopefully] 3/4 regular). It’s wishful thinking in the extreme to think they’ll somehow improve; it’s far more likely they hit 90+ in the loss column.
I WANT the Braves to win. I still have my 2011 playoff tickets. But this team has played and managed themselves into a position of not deserving the benefit of the doubt.
Josh
March 23rd, 2012
2:03 pm
Coming off last year, the Braves my be the biggest “IF” team in baseball. Injuries/health, comeback seasons, rookies, potential sophomore slumps, bullpen management, manager, sports writers (JK), off season non-moves. You name it, everything is an “IF.”
JoeFan
March 23rd, 2012
2:09 pm
Except for their bullpen the Braves are no better than a .500 ball club and thats if they stay healthy. They needed to shore up the offense and that just hasn’t been done. They needed to replace Ffedi and that likely will be done by midseason. Chipper needed to retire last year and likely will be on injured reserve by the allstar break. Lets face it this is a rebuilding year that want be complete until 2014.
Gonzalez needs to be gone!!!!!
March 23rd, 2012
2:09 pm
FG needs to be gone – like now!!!! And Gimper Jones with him!!!! Clean house and bring in a manager who can LIGHT A FIRE under these lazy do nothing Bravos hind ends! FG is a failure and Jones is nothing more than a liablility and a accident waiting to happen at 3rd Base! Wren show some fortitiude and do what is right – CLEAN HOUSE!!!!!!!!
Coach (2012 Fredi's beisbol fandango)
March 23rd, 2012
2:17 pm
I could have to ya’ll this was coming……
alex
March 23rd, 2012
2:18 pm
@ken Stallings, I am not a legal wiz but I enjoyed your statement, best letter on the blog by far. As for the other end of the spectrum , Lobo.. is back with his usual drivel from the gutter, aw-the rights of spring
AG
March 23rd, 2012
2:28 pm
70 to 80 wins is what I keep seeing from posts… amazing what a slow start to spring training will do to fans.
Braves won 89 games last season. 89. That includes a useless Uggla for 40% of the season. Down years from Prado and McCann. No production out of Heyward. Derek Lowe in the rotation for far too long (the only thing I will fault Fredi Gonzalez for). No Hanson or Jurrjens (both w/ All Star numbers before the break) for half the season and pitching with our AAA rotation 40% of the time.
We have Bourn for a full season and you can’t tell me that Prado, McCann, Heyward AND Uggla are expected to perform any worse than they did last year.
The Marlins signed one marquee player (look at Heath Bell’s K/IP number trends and stats away from Petco and don’t tell me that Mark Buerhle strikes fear in the heart of our lineup). They did not make up 20+ games with three players, one of which is a huge health concern.
The Phillies are injured but until they lose… the Nationals are the one team to watch for. Their previous #1 starter is now their #5 only because Wang is injured. Werth can’t be any worse and Zimmerman is healthy (for now). Their backend bullpen is as solid as the Braves. I’m just glad they didn’t sign Fielder…
BulldogBen
March 23rd, 2012
2:29 pm
I don’t think the Nats are an 84 win team but other than that I’d say the SI prediction is spot on.
Everyone improved but the Braves. Meh-tastic moves in the off season.
Zero buzz around this team.
I hope they prove SI wrong but I’d wager this team is 8 or 9 games out by June.
BigTimeTechFan
March 23rd, 2012
2:29 pm
Braves 1st
Marlins 2nd
Phillies 3rd
Nats 4th
But very close battle all year, only about 6 games between 1st and 4th.
Braves hitting will explode this year
Uggla 2B
McCain C
Hayward RF
Freeman 1B
M. Bourn CF
C Jones 3B
Prodo / Diaz LF
will be putting on a show this year
Sid
March 23rd, 2012
2:30 pm
Man I don’t know what ya’ll are talking about. The Braves are going to the Word Series!
Notso Fast
March 23rd, 2012
2:30 pm
It is a rebuilding year and the Braves need to decide on their 3rd baseman for next year and get him some playing time. They should decide on next years team and start making changes. This really is a wait till next year moment.
Warmth, Love, Peace
March 23rd, 2012
2:30 pm
Shoot the messenger! The Braves will be mediocre! How DARE they predict that!
AG
March 23rd, 2012
2:31 pm
On a side note. PLEASE, someone break down for me ALL the poor decisions Fredi Gonzalez made last year. And I want something other than over using the bullpen early because with the way our offense was the first part of the season, it’s the only option he had.
Sid
March 23rd, 2012
2:31 pm
Freeman just got hit on the hand at bat…………hope he’s ok.
Warmth, Love, Peace
March 23rd, 2012
2:33 pm
BigTimeTechFan, Sid, AG…
You guys deserve to be on Wren’s Christmas card list.
ManOfTeal
March 23rd, 2012
2:34 pm
Sounds about right to me.
Go Marlins!!!!
Really?
March 23rd, 2012
2:37 pm
LOL! MAKE SOME MOVES? EVERYONE AROUND THE BRAVES GOT BETTER IN THE OFF SEASON. THE BRAVES HAVE DONE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO COMPETE WITH THE PHILLIES, CARDNALS OR THE OTHER NL CHALLEGERS. WHAT MOVE COULD OL’ FRANK MAKE AT THIS POINT THAT WOULD BE SO SIGNIFICANT THAT IT WOULD MAKE THE BRAVES
BECOME FRONT RUNNER CHALLENGERS?
Tdawg
March 23rd, 2012
2:38 pm
82 wins you say. Not a chance in hedes. This team has no heart what so ever. They sure as heck don’t have any fight. Heyward has turned out to be a complete joke. Why on this earth a man with his physcill atrabuites will just stand up there taking strike after strike and then swing at a ball a foot off the plate is beyound me. I remember when he first came up. All the announcers were raving about his patience and his “eye of the ball”. Maybe the kid should go find somebody else’s eye, cause the one’s he has now $uck& Let’s see starting pitching not so good this season, hitting is as pathetic as it ever was, defense not so great. Fourth place at best and that will be a struggle.
Warmth, Love, Peace
March 23rd, 2012
2:43 pm
Have “sucks” and “sucky” been added to the “no-no” list?
Big Al
March 23rd, 2012
2:43 pm
Won’t be long before it will be very easy to get Braves tickets. LOL
bugs
March 23rd, 2012
2:45 pm
Braves have the worst starting pitching ever.The ownership and management are the pits.Last place!
bruce mac
March 23rd, 2012
2:45 pm
So Mark, how many games do the Cardinals have to win if the Braves just go 500. Moron, pick another team to jinx this year.
Dr. Nick
March 23rd, 2012
2:46 pm
Aren’t these the same people who picked Georgia to win the national championship in 2008?
Warmth, Love, Peace
March 23rd, 2012
2:49 pm
The way the non-Atlanta media and rival baseball people see things is like this. The Braves had a team that folded like a cheap suit down the stretch. They made no improvements over the winter or addressed the flawed philosophy and line-up that contributed to the fold job. These people… and they are in the majority…. predict nothing great for the Braves. Most see them missing the playoffs all together.
The only people who seem to think that you can do nothing and expect success after failing miserably last year is Wren, the Braves PR department and some in the ATL media. Oh yes and I forgot….. the “real” fans of the Braves who scold anyone who doesn’t believe the Braves are going to be swell this year! “Pass me a cup of rainbows please! Gonna be a great day!”
DawgDad
March 23rd, 2012
2:54 pm
“amazing what a slow start to spring training will do to fans.”
[Cringe] AG, were you out of the country in September 2011?
Loserville USA
March 23rd, 2012
2:55 pm
Braves could win 82-83 games and finish 4th….so what’s the big deal?
Choking is traumatic and has carryover.
Phils, Nats and Marlins ARE BETTER.
Loserville USA
March 23rd, 2012
2:57 pm
BTW Braves might be 10th best team in the NL….but Gonzalez is the 16th best manager in the league. Hands down.
Zach J
March 23rd, 2012
3:08 pm
Johnny Damon. Make it happen!
Najeh Davenpoop
March 23rd, 2012
3:11 pm
Four above-.500 teams in the division? I guess it’s possible, but that doesn’t happen too often with the unbalanced schedule.
This isn’t too surprising, though. The Braves can win the division, but a lot of things have to go right. From a neutral point of view, when you look at three division rivals who made major upgrades on paper, the Braves don’t look like a contender. If everyone is healthy and bounces back, though, they will be good.
lefty fielder
March 23rd, 2012
3:13 pm
just curious . . . where did Ken Rosenthal predict the Braves’ “epic collapse” brothers, the Red Sox to finish?
Whiskey Breath
March 23rd, 2012
3:16 pm
I love the Braves, but we have been bad for several years now. We have the reputation that we don’t spend any money for players. Meanwhile the media hypes hyped them and we get dissapointed. We believe we are going to have a decent season and every year we don’t make the playoffs.Ted Turner made us, and he killed us.
He sold the team to Time Warner and we haven’t been any good since. We are now the Chicago Cubs of the south.
chc4
March 23rd, 2012
3:20 pm
AG — Hitting Alex Gonzalez in the 2-hole for a month was unforgiveable. He KILLED us all year long. And spare me the “FG had no other choice” nonsense. Anyone in the lineup would’ve been better in that spot than Gonzo.
Liberty Cheap Media Executives
March 23rd, 2012
3:21 pm
Chipper will retire after this year. Good! For 2013 we can now cut the Braves BUDGET another $10-12 Million! Then we can increase our bonuses again.
mark's for the braves
March 23rd, 2012
3:24 pm
How often does SI get anything right? Were’t the Falcons picked to win the Super Bowl?
The Braves need to get out of the gate fast to prove some SI wrong. When Hudson returns, the SR will be straightened out and we need to score 4 runs a game and we’ll be fine.
We’ll see if they finish 4th…….
Stinger2
March 23rd, 2012
3:25 pm
I see Clusters was busy again today posting his usual worn out negative comments. Rest overnight Clusters and get ready for another day to bash the Braves. Your mind needs to do some more thinking to allow you to find something new to say bad about the Braves
SR
March 23rd, 2012
3:26 pm
SI sees what most of us see, to wit, a GM who sat on his arse all off-season and whose lone personnel addition was Jack Wilson. A broken down pitching staff that wil not stay in tact all season. Hitters who can’t hit, a slow, (other than Bourn) plodding team that can’t steal a base, has no power and fails in the clutch. An infielder in Prado misplaced in left field. A player in right who still has IF written all over him, a legendary hall of famer at third who deserves all the praise he has earned but can be counted on to miss many games with injuries this season, no proven shortstop, a second baseman who doesn’t hit for average and so on and so on. I’d say 4th place is right on the money and maybe even a tad generous.
Lost Cause
March 23rd, 2012
3:27 pm
Wait and see where we are at the end of May before panic sits in.
Stinger2
March 23rd, 2012
3:29 pm
Clusters: Congradulations. Another big day for you posting your usual and pitiful garbage about the Braves.