Fearsome forecast: SI rates Braves fourth-best in the NL East
Sports Illustrated's preview cover. Note: Albert Pujols does not play for the Braves. (Photo by Robert Beck)
Well, here’s a cheery note. Sports Illustrated picks the Atlanta Braves, who had a lot of things go wrong last season and still won 89 games, to win 82 in 2012. (I’d offer a link, but SI.com hasn’t posted one yet.) This total, in SI’s estimation, will enable the Braves to finish fourth in a five-team division.
SI’s projected National League East finish:
- Phillies, 94-68
- Marlins, 89-73 (wild card)
- Nationals, 84-78
- Braves, 82-80
- Mets, 75-87
More glad tidings: SI sees the Braves finishing with the 10th-best record in the 16-team National League and the 17th-best (tied with the Kansas City Royals, actually) in baseball. I believe I can speak for us all when I say: Yikes.
I’m on record as believing the Braves’ spring-training record — after a 1-10-1 start, they’re up to 6-13-3; if this were hockey, they’d have 15 points — means less than nothing, but Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports has written that (unnamed) “rival executives believe that [manager Fredi] Gonzalez … already is on probation.”
Given that the first real game is still 13 days off, we shouldn’t read too much into anything just yet. But it’s not unreasonable to suggest that general manager Frank Wren, who before this offseason wasn’t known for his patience, might be forced to do something soon — and I’m not talking so much about firing Fredi G. as making a personnel move or two — if his team looks tepid through April.
Wren likes his roster very much. He doesn’t think this is a fourth-place team. He thinks these Braves should win 90 (or so) games, not 82. But not everyone agrees.
By Mark Bradley
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357 comments Add your comment
Ken Stallings
March 23rd, 2012
12:34 pm
Last season’s September collapse was primarily due to lack of hitting throughout the season. This resulted in an inordinate number of close games, and Freddie Gonzalez was too tempted to try to preserve those leads by running his bullpen out to finish the last three innings of too many games. He leveraged his strength too often.
By the All-Star break, smart baseball people looked at the innings pitched by the big three in the bullpen and predicted a collapse. Fredi managed his bullpen as though baseball is a five month sport vice a six month sport!
The sixth month arrived and the bullpen was horribly weakened from way too many appearances and innings pitched from April through August. Again, that was due to the desire to preserve tight margins of victory. Fredi did not have the runs in margin to leave a starter in for another inning without risking the win.
Add in the season-ending injuries to Hanson and Jurrgens, and a number of the talented young pitchers who could have given the big three in the bullpen some much-needed rest, were forced to start games. No rest for the weary!
As easy as it is to focus the attention on the pitching, the truth is that the pitching staff carried the team to the brink of post-season for five months. The offense was offensive-to-the-eye for all of six months! The sole exception being a one-month period where Uggla went on a tear. But, one player on an extended hot streak — even for a full month — is not adequate in this game.
Frank Wren knows the same facts. Yet, nothing was done to find that necessary bat in left field. The reason was pure economics. Wren knows it, but he won’t tell you because if he did then he’d be fired. The truth is the Braves are an economically challenged organization now, already in the middle-of-the-pack in payroll, but poised to sink to the bottom third after this season.
The organization took the extraordinary step of publicly airing the dirty laundry of the inside and self-serving media contract that Time-Warner authored as a parting gift before “exchanging the team for value” to another media conglomerate — Liberty Media. The Braves are now stuck in a horrible and under-valued media contract for decades.
Baseball should step in and force that contract to be voided by pointedly telling Fox Sports Net (beneficiary of the current contract) that it either re-negotiates in good faith, or risk a league-wide reprisal. It should be recognized that the current contract was an inside deal made by two media corporations, devoid of true concern about the long-term viability of the baseball team wearing the script “A” on their caps! But, baseball won’t step in because it doesn’t feel a compelling urge to restore balance and competitive advantage to the Braves. It is perfectly content to reap in richer and richer contracts from the same media organization and sacrifice the Braves to keep the other teams with the better contracts happy.
The best chance for any solution is for a private owner to step forward, purchase the team, and sue Liberty and Time-Warner to void the contract, or at least extract directly from them the missing value — rightly claiming it was a deliberate effort to under-value a contract for mutual advantage.
But, you can bet that any sale of the team will include contract provisions prohibiting any such lawsuit. Liberty and Time-Warner are both fully aware of what they did and why — they aren’t stupid enough to leave a future owner with such a legal remedy. And most likely that is precisely why Liberty cannot find someone to purchase the team. People with that kind of money are not known as being stupid with it! No owner in his right mind is going to purchase a team with such a financial ball and chain shackled to its ankle for that long. The same media relationship that sparked the Braves to national prominence has ended up being the relationship that has set them up for lingering failure!
The true power to emerge now in the NL East is the Washington Nationals. It is no accident either. They followed the same formula as the Braves — draft well and develop your own talent. They have a young and powerful pitching staff. They have improved their offense. The Phillies are old. The Marlins mortgaged their future on an unsustainable cost basis their fan base is yet to prove it will support. The Mets are still the Mets — owned by men who were more concerned about escaping jail time for Madoff-associated financial corruption.
With Chipper to retire, the Braves’ payroll further constricted, and the best players in free agency going elsewhere when they used to always seriously look to the Braves (if not sign with them), the future is not bright. That is not gloomy prediction. The facts of the situation slapped us all in the face cold and hard last September. We may want to savor this last season with Chipper, as it may be the closest on-the-field association with past greatness we are likely to see in a long time to come.
Kyle
March 23rd, 2012
12:37 pm
Same old Braves….at least they wont have a chance to embarrass us again with the huge choke of last year…….time for the front office to revamp this whole team……and yes, that does include Chipper….he sees the writing on the wall ….he should have been traded long ago…..
Sonny Clusters
March 23rd, 2012
12:37 pm
They used to shoot for a “division championship” and now they hope for a “wild card championship” and probably wlll get neither. We remember when they decided last year that the division might be out of reach and they would just take the wild card and go from there. What happened then? We remember a guy sitting out with flu-like symptoms and saying he’d play if they didn’t have such a big lead in the wild card. They were going to dust Philadelphia and then they’d get to the WS. Well, forty cap tips later they was shamed at home and suffered an EPIC Collapse and still tried to tell us how lucky we were to see how they played until August. The other teams had a run left in them to the pennant and the Braves were entirely flat and Fredi would/could do nothing about it but send Lowe out again and again when Constanza probably could have pitched and done better. Now, we are told spring doesn’t mean all that much and they will be ready for the season and we hope they are right. Somehow we don’t see it being all that useful for Fredi to say, spring is over and the season is starting so start winning now. If he could do that he should have done it in September. One last thing, the Braves organization needs to stop telling us how lucky we are and what winners they are. They compete until crunch time and then they lose with the best of them. That is not Championship baseball from a championship organization. Deer Feathers!
Lobosolo
March 23rd, 2012
12:38 pm
Larry. for real, man… we know the depths of your knowledge… really… please, for you own sake… quit crying already!!!!
Obee
March 23rd, 2012
12:40 pm
I’m betting the Braves’ win total is closer to 100 games than it is to 75.
Lobosolo
March 23rd, 2012
12:44 pm
Sonny. I realize the trials and tribulations you must face each day in just going to the bathroom and wiping yourself are much for any one person to deal with, but “we” gotta get you some relief… you’re embarrassing yourself, Girl… get out while you still have a chance before you turn into another Larry…
SSIgator
March 23rd, 2012
12:45 pm
I used to think that the Kool-Aid drinking crowd was pretty much made up of UGA fans only, but it would certainly seem it is not just limited to them after reading some of the comments here today. Get real folks. The 2012 Braves will be nothing more than the Gimper Farewell Tour with a whole lot of cap tippin’ to go along with it. The regular season will be over before most of these dolts even realize what kind of record the Braves had in 2012.
Bobbys' Booger
March 23rd, 2012
12:47 pm
Yessssss Spring Training means nothing…remember Nate McOut hitting 0.100 late Spring…It meant nothing right? Don’t look behind the curtain, for if you do you will see the weak, but slow team we are.
Bobbys' Booger
March 23rd, 2012
12:48 pm
@lobo yes…you are a lone wolf. a lost soul of sorts I guess. You are the one that sounds completely out of touch with reality
bvillebaron
March 23rd, 2012
12:51 pm
SI picks the Braves to finish 4th in the NL East. Who cares? That projection and 65 cents will get me a soda out of the machine @ work. I am at a loss to understand the infatuation with the alleged “on paper” improvements of the Marlins and Nationals (leaving aside that the both needed major improvement after last year).
Even former GM, John Hart, gave the Marlins rotation a 4 out of 5 and the Braves only a 3 on the MLB network the other day. Based on what precisely? Sure Josh Johnson is great when he pitches, but the same numbnuts who downgrade the Braves rotation because of less severe and/or injuries to parts of the body other than the throwing arm (except for Hanson) must assume Johnson will somehow go injury free this year while Hudson, Hanson and JJ will break down. The rest of the Marlins’ vaunted rotation is Zambrano (head case); Nolasco (every year is supposed to be his year and every year he disappoints), Buehrle (yawn) and A. Sanchez (does have promise). FWI the MLB websie rates the Braves’ rotation as being the second best in MLB behind the Phils and we all know they have a terrific bullpen.
Divisions and championships aren’t won on paper and Spring Training results mean nothing. Sure, I would like to see Wren upgrade the offense, but it doesn’t make any sense to panic and do so based upon meaningless Spring Training stats. If the offense struggles after the first month or so, I am sure he will act. Besides, the Phils, Nats, Marlins and Braves ALL have their offensive issues–none of the other 3 teams is going to make us all forget the 1927 Yankees folks.
Chicken Little
March 23rd, 2012
12:51 pm
This from the same magazine that picked the Chargers and Falcons to meet in the Superbowl…I think I’ll let them play the games all the same.
O-my
March 23rd, 2012
12:51 pm
Shut up Lobosolo your IQ is out of date. Put the PBR bottle down and ST_U.
Dean
March 23rd, 2012
12:52 pm
I think there is a real chance with the lack of hitters that this could be a disastrous season. But more than likely, I think there is enough hitting and good pitching to give us a fair shot at a wild card. Remember, they’ve added another spot. Florida may look okay on paper but I think they are one rough stretch from imploding and tanking. I think Washington could be a real challenge if their young players come through. Philly should again be the team to beat. I’m more interested in just what the Nats have this year. Go Braves!
Plate Appearance
March 23rd, 2012
12:54 pm
THE BRAVES GREATEST PROBLEM
Fredi is the Braves greatest problem at this point.
Bobby had fire and intensity. Unfortunately Fredi has neither. The players know it, and so do we.
Where’s the passion?
robdawg08
March 23rd, 2012
12:54 pm
The problem is the Braves have Jair Jurrgens (got killed this spring training) slated as # 1 starter. What team would let a struggling pitcher be the # 1 guy ? No other team would. Every other team except the Mets added good players to their team. The cash-strapped Braves added nothing. Sure the Braves have great arms like Delgado,Teheran,Vizcaino,Minor,Beachy,Medlen,etc. but none of those guys can hit which is where the Braves are really weak.
Columbus
March 23rd, 2012
12:55 pm
S.I has an opinion just like the rest of us and we actually are more knowledgeable about the Braves then any national publication. Its not about whats “on paper” or “last year:.
That being said, the Nationals have been on the rise, but STILL have not gotten over the hump. Florida signed some players and have a new manager and look good on “paper”. Phils look good as usual with all their spending.
That being said, it comes down to pitching and whose pitching stays healthy. Braves have Bourne all season, an improved Heyward, Prado, McCann, Chipper and Uggla should hit better the first half.
FYI the Braves were RIGHT ON THE PHILLIES REAR ENDS AT THE ALL-STAR BREAK LAST YEAR WITH SEVERAL PLAYERS HAVING CAREER LOWS AT THE PLATE! THEN THE PITCHERS WENT DOWN…..If the pitchers stay healthy, The Braves will be fighting for the division and if they are 82-80, I will be SHOCKED!
How about 93-69? They MUST expect the Braves divisional teams except the Mets to win all the season series against us and that is just not going to happen. Not with one of the top staffs in baseball top to bottom and a BETTER hitting lineup, if the pitching stays healthy. No way.
GwinnettDad
March 23rd, 2012
12:57 pm
The Braves this year will have average to better than average pitching, but their inability to score runs will put them just about where SI thinks they belong. Maybe 30 HR from all the outfielders, which is pitiful. Heyward will continue to have one foot in the dugout, and with that huge slow swing & bat .230 and be unable to hit a slider down and out. Chipper will play through multple injuries and bat .260 in 100 or less games. SS will be an offensive vacuum. Their defense will be OK. 82-80 seems about right to me.
wr29te
March 23rd, 2012
12:57 pm
WOW The only source for picking final results in sports is the sportswritters
collegedude
March 23rd, 2012
1:00 pm
Wren is an idiot. Braves got hot in the middle of the summer last year, but played like the team they really were in the 1st & last month of the season. The Braves are a .500 team & Moronic Wren believes that he can just keep putting the same mediocre team on the field & expect that past success over the last 2 decades will put the Braves in contention. Wren has NO FREAKING CLUE how to build a ballclub. All the time behind Schuerholz and he didn’t learn a single thing. The Braves will continue to head downward in the NL pecking order as long a Wren is calling shots. Gonzales is NOT the problem, it’s management. Gonzales can only play the players that Wren will get him, and Wren won’t get anybody.
BartBuzz
March 23rd, 2012
1:00 pm
Well, that settles it. SI has spoken. There’s no sense in playing any games. Pop the champaign corks for the Phillies.
These sports prognosticators are too funny. Maybe they ought to find a real job.
Bobbys' Booger
March 23rd, 2012
1:01 pm
@Columbus…the main problem with your logic…and there are several, but the main one is Bourne will be traded before the trade dead-line. No chance re-signing him and with the state of health (mentally and physically) of this team, there is no way they compete in the first half. We throw in the towel, get a few players for Bourne and re-build for Wren’s last year 2013. The asterisk** IF they have the huevos to FIRE FRUITI, the team may make a bit of a charge 2nd Half…and I’m all for that.
Sweet Old Buck
March 23rd, 2012
1:03 pm
Just about right. Chipper won’t play. LF is still a problem. Maybe RF, too. Pitching is now questionable.
bvillebaron
March 23rd, 2012
1:05 pm
GwinnettDad:
Since you are so good at predicting the future, tell me what numbers I should play in the MegaMillions.
SeaAtl
March 23rd, 2012
1:06 pm
I’m a huge and long-time Braves fan and go to at least a dozen game a season, but I have been predicting a 4th place finish for Atlanta as well. The other teams made efforts to improve themselves, while the Braves have done nothing. A dangerous mix of players that are too young (Pastornicky), too old (Chipper Jones, one of my favorite players), to injured (most of the pitching staff), to inconsistent, (Heyward), and just plain over-matched (Prado) is going to have a hard time competing against lineups that are simply better (on paper, at least) than the Braves at just about every position. Doesn’t mean I’m not a fan and won’t root hard & go to games. But anything better than a 4th place finish with be a shock and will mean Fredi got more out of a mediocre group of players than expected.
MyPatootie
March 23rd, 2012
1:06 pm
At least somebody looks at it objectively and realistically, unlike some “homer” writers that we all know! I was thinking there were only 3 teams in the NL EAST and that the Braves will still finish 4th.
PMC
March 23rd, 2012
1:08 pm
If they finish 4th in the east both Wren and Gonzales should be gone and their requisite coaching staffs with them period.
don
March 23rd, 2012
1:08 pm
Realistic prediction.
Bobbys' Booger
March 23rd, 2012
1:10 pm
Additionally for those who say Spring Training means nothing…ATL run differential is -34 2nd worst in all of baseball. They are with Cleveland and Arizona…this puts them in really crap company…right about where they deserve to be.
dale in newnan
March 23rd, 2012
1:11 pm
And when was the last time SI made a prediction that came to be? SI and ESPN are not what they used to be. I still see the braves finishing second in a very strong east.
Joseph
March 23rd, 2012
1:12 pm
As a Marlins fan, it’s cool to see my team get some love. Win or lose though, with Ozzie, LoMo and Zabrano, it’s going to be an entertaining year at the very least!
Bobbys' Booger
March 23rd, 2012
1:13 pm
Wow! A Marlin fan… I truly rare siting like a North Dakota plate
ATLcracker
March 23rd, 2012
1:16 pm
This is the best division in baseball and this IS baseball. You know what the difference between fourth place and the wild card is? It’s 6 games. 6 games out of 162. There’s 6 months in a season. 25 weeks. That’s one game a month. That means if you get just one extra flare a month-just one-a gork-you get a ground ball with eyes-you get a dying quail-just one dying quail a month- and you’re the Wild Card. props to Crash Davis
Danny Boy
March 23rd, 2012
1:18 pm
I have no, nada, zilch, null set confidence in Fredi. There’s a reason why the Marlins made him walk the plank. We should have shopped around and done a real search for Bobby’s replacement.
Banned Poster
March 23rd, 2012
1:18 pm
The hitting woes last year were attributed to several factors:
1. Lack of a leadoff hitter or speed until Bourn was acquired.
2. Prado, Heyward, and Uggla were terrible for the first 3 months of the season. Uggla eventually got it together to finish strong, but the other two never overcame their injuries.
3. Brian McCann had an MVP caliber first half and then got hurt. He was never the same after that.
4. Everyone – in a freak occurrence – quit hitting once the month turned to September.
There are positive signs setting up for an offensive rebound this year.
1. Bourn. The speed and consistency at the top of the lineup has been lacking since Furcal left. The Braves get it for a full season this time around and from someone who averages well and steals alot of bases. Manufacturing runs should be a little easier this season.
2. The health of Prado and Heyward. Both players showed us in 2010 what they are capable of when healthy. Both are healthy now and Heyward is starting to show signs of returning to his 2010 form and driving the ball. Prado has been one of the Braves best hitters this spring and is healthy. Stick him in the #2 and the Braves have a very good top of the order.
3. Dan Uggla has shown this spring that he is likely to hit close to his FLA production and that he posted post July 4th last year. The first three months of 2011 were an aberration for him.
4. Freeman had a great rookie season and approaches hitting much like Chipper Jones does. I am excited to see how well his 2012 season goes.
5. Brian McCann will bounce back and have a productive year that we are so accustom to.
I hear a bunch of you whine and moan about the Braves not making any moves. Please tell me who in the lineup currently would you have traded or replaced? Prado? Bourn? Heyward? Any of the infielders? McCann? Who were you going to replace and with whom? Jose Reyes? A guy who the Marlins are going to regret signing once they find out how he plays in non-contract years. Were you willing to trade Prado – who might be needed at 3rd some – for some prospect and then sign a free agent LF who strikes out a bunch? How would that have helped the team? I am really eager to hear how some of you arm chair GMs would have approached this offseason.
Bobbys' Booger
March 23rd, 2012
1:22 pm
@Banned Poster…I would have FIRED FREDI the last day of the season. I would’ve at least entertained hiring Francona.
Aneel
March 23rd, 2012
1:22 pm
Enter your comments here
shut your lips
March 23rd, 2012
1:24 pm
Is anyone suprised that we were voted the most miserable sports city in the country. Instead of pissing and moaning about everything, just shut up and support your team….Go Braves
Patrick
March 23rd, 2012
1:26 pm
I don’t agree with SI’s predictions either
However, the braves need to do 2 things better this season, otherwise, I agree that drastic changes will need to be made. And those 2 things are.
1. They need to put up better AB’s and hit better off of left-handed pitching
and
2. They must play better against the nationals, now more than ever!
and the Braves haven’t given us fans much confidence with their spring training performance.
and they got shut down by john lannen AGAIN! That’s enfuriating and ridiculous that they can’t hit that guy.
bsaff
March 23rd, 2012
1:26 pm
I have to say first off, I’m disappointed with the lack of confidence most of you people have. This team looks good to me and without a doubt I see these Braves not only making the playoffs but making a deep run. Also I wish that I could discuss whomever wrote the SI article and atleast get some valid points because that prediction just seems ignorant. The Braves also bring back the entire starting lineup minus Alex Gonzalez, while his defense was spectactular, his bat was maybe the worst in baseball. Gonzalez failed to put up a professinal at bat 85 percent of the time, alot of times chasing balls and striking out, not to mention how many times he failed to move a runner over or get one in. I have to say I like this team better than last year because I expect Prado to bounce back as I do Heyward and without Gonzo unable to contribute until the last month of the season we can loose a little defense because over an entire season a contact hitter in that spot will result in alot more runs. Go Braves lets send Chipper out a world champion.
DAMON
March 23rd, 2012
1:27 pm
The prediction has some validity, they are picked ahead of the Mets.
Sonny Clusters
March 23rd, 2012
1:27 pm
We guess that same little person is shooting at us with another name saying we shouldn’t blog if we don’t want to brag on the team. If we are not a “true” fan because we care enough to want to see the team do better and we say so on the blog . . . then being a “true” fan must be very dull and boring and confined to double digit IQs. Follow them blindly and accept that they are champions or recognize that they are close but need something more to be among the really successful organizations. That they could not win a game that would have propelled them to the playoffs in September speaks volumes. Sticks and stones will break our bones but calling us a bad fan because we speak out will not hurt us as much as you. If the fans demand more, maybe the Braves will deliver more. If we shut down any discontent with “oh, golly, gee, gee willikers” we will get more of the same and the same right now is an EPIC Collapse in September followed by another in Spring Traininig. If bloggers want to get mad at somebody or something get mad at losing. Get mad at not improving the club. Get mad at high prices and inconvenient transportation and bad parking and muggings and cold hot dogs and bad baseball. Don’t get mad at us. We was state championship.
Seenitb4
March 23rd, 2012
1:28 pm
We cant hit.
And we sure as Hell can’t clutch hit:… i mean fugheaboutit!!!!!!!!!!!
Cant’ win when u can’t hit.
Its been this way since forever.
At least Cox brought us pitching when he came here.
We a bunch of nice guys that cant even make good commercials.
Mutts will give us a run for bottom.
Aneel
March 23rd, 2012
1:28 pm
Vegas has the Braves as the fourth best team in the National League this year behind Philly, Cincinnati and San Francisco. The Braves odds, at 9.25 to 1, to win the NL are better than Miami (9.55 to 1) and Washington (11.5 to 1). I put my faith in the guys in desert before i put it in SI…
redbrush
March 23rd, 2012
1:30 pm
Hey-They picked the Falcons to win the Super Bowl last year-Enough said!!
Seenitb4
March 23rd, 2012
1:32 pm
redbush-
Hey ginger,
you make a good point
FalconsFan
March 23rd, 2012
1:33 pm
I heard a rumor that the Braves are sending Trampolines to the entire Philies pitching staff and a few to the Nats.
reckingball
March 23rd, 2012
1:33 pm
Everyone has a right to their own opinion.
But, I don’t think that opinions of the majority of the people on this blog(or any of the other AJC blogs, concerning the Braves), are reflective of most of the Braves fans, throughout the country, at least the ones that I know and talk to.
That’s my opinion.
GO BRAVES!! NLEast CHAMPIONS 2012!!(my prediction, and it’s just as good as SI’s, imo.)
Seenitb4
March 23rd, 2012
1:35 pm
Joba could break his azz on a blade of grass.
He didnt need a tramp.
ha
Dennis
March 23rd, 2012
1:36 pm
I live in Nationals country (Tidewater Virginia) and do believe they are improved and within a few years probably will challenge for the league crown. Right now do not believe they are better than the Braves. Braves are better behind the plate, at first, second, center and right field. If Morse is not playing, the Nationals are no better than the Braves. Desmond is an adequate shortstop, but I believe Pastornicky and Simmons both will be much better. Zimmerman is clearly the better third baseman. The Braves starting staff is better right now (remember that Strasburg is on a 160 inning limit right now) and the Braves are heads and shoulders better in the bullpen. I know that the Nationals always seem to beat the Braves, but think that is one of those things like the Tigers always beating the Yankees back in the 60’s. The Marlins are not vastly improved. They have some question marks in their rotation and their bullpen is not up to the Braves standard. They have some exciting players, but they have not improved enough to vault ahead by 17 games. The Phillies still have a great staff (though not all they are hyped to be) but have serious problems with their age and injuries. I still think the Phillies will win the division and the Braves will finish second with 90 wins.
fanman
March 23rd, 2012
1:37 pm
I think Chipper probably sees that coming in spring training and decided to make his retirement official.