Fearsome forecast: SI rates Braves fourth-best in the NL East
Sports Illustrated's preview cover. Note: Albert Pujols does not play for the Braves. (Photo by Robert Beck)
Well, here’s a cheery note. Sports Illustrated picks the Atlanta Braves, who had a lot of things go wrong last season and still won 89 games, to win 82 in 2012. (I’d offer a link, but SI.com hasn’t posted one yet.) This total, in SI’s estimation, will enable the Braves to finish fourth in a five-team division.
SI’s projected National League East finish:
- Phillies, 94-68
- Marlins, 89-73 (wild card)
- Nationals, 84-78
- Braves, 82-80
- Mets, 75-87
More glad tidings: SI sees the Braves finishing with the 10th-best record in the 16-team National League and the 17th-best (tied with the Kansas City Royals, actually) in baseball. I believe I can speak for us all when I say: Yikes.
I’m on record as believing the Braves’ spring-training record — after a 1-10-1 start, they’re up to 6-13-3; if this were hockey, they’d have 15 points — means less than nothing, but Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports has written that (unnamed) “rival executives believe that [manager Fredi] Gonzalez … already is on probation.”
Given that the first real game is still 13 days off, we shouldn’t read too much into anything just yet. But it’s not unreasonable to suggest that general manager Frank Wren, who before this offseason wasn’t known for his patience, might be forced to do something soon — and I’m not talking so much about firing Fredi G. as making a personnel move or two — if his team looks tepid through April.
Wren likes his roster very much. He doesn’t think this is a fourth-place team. He thinks these Braves should win 90 (or so) games, not 82. But not everyone agrees.
By Mark Bradley
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357 comments Add your comment
clint northside
March 23rd, 2012
11:22 am
Reggie Ball is true to….the marlins….the only thing that is working for them is now they have the rainbow vibe flowing at the ballpark with those new uni’s. We will be fighting for 1st in the NL East, as it should be.
Heisenberg
March 23rd, 2012
11:26 am
Marlins have some talent and did not need to hit it big in FA over the winter. I could see them getting off to a fast start before chemistry issues bring them down to earth. While they do have some talent, they are not the A’s of the 70’s or Yankees who could win in spite the the drama. I expect them to turn into a Kardasheon (or however it is spelled) reality show by the AS break.
Jonas Grumby
March 23rd, 2012
11:28 am
PRose, you are correct. I don’t know why people give SI any more credibility than any other media outlet. Just because people are great writers doesn’t mean they are more knowledgeable, and certainly nobody knows what human beings and an inanimate baseball will do. Nine of the 12 panelists picked the Red Sox to win the AL, and 6 picked the Phillies to win the AL. Bravos need another hitter but there’s a long way until the trading deadline.
mike
March 23rd, 2012
11:29 am
the problem for braves common problem for all Atlanta pro sport team – support. let imagine braves going to get bad season, for sure attendance would significantly drop from mediocre 15 in the league from last year far down. it’s means owners be forced to cut payroll, that means no good free agents signing, no retaining Bourn, exc. again Atlanta bad sport market, so need rich generous like Blank owner. always painful process to find Atlanta pro sport owner for this reason and this is no win situation for braves.
Sonny Clusters
March 23rd, 2012
11:29 am
Fredi said all coaches would return. Parrish was fired the next day. Fredi said one of the two young pitchers would go to the bullpen. Next day, it was announced neither would go to the pen. Fredi said Pastornicky would start at shortstop but said he didn’t come to camp early because he didn’t know he could get an early start. Whose fault is that Fredi? Fredi said he was glad Pastornicky was getting a chance to work out with Jack Wilson at his home. Wilson reports on crutches having hurt himself the first day of the private session. The veteran ss is getting no work. The kid is not performing. Simmons looks better and may be the players’ choice but doesn’t appear to be management’s choice. Who is making the calls? It isn’t Fredi. Is it Wren? Fredi may be gone sooner than we think. It may be that he’s gone now and hasn’t been told. Can you imagine what the team might have done with a sound manager in place last year? Nothing bodes well for them this year under Fredi’s questionable leadership after an EPIC Collapse and no remedy in sight.
jonsie-wonsie
March 23rd, 2012
11:30 am
Who cares? Lets just play the games already. The Atlanta Braves have put consistently well-playing ball clubs on the field. The games are invariably close, managed well, and they are never out of it till late in the season. Give this organization credit for becoming a standard to measure against by other organizations.
I do wish they’d hit more, but regardless, this is a class organization. Just wish the commentators here would lift their game a liitle higher and show more class also.
BooBoo
March 23rd, 2012
11:30 am
Seems the minor league prospects have stopped being a strong suit for the Braves. Might be because they have had such low picks over the past 20 years. Could be the new management. Probably some of both. The Braves need to lose over 90 games and be as far away from being “one and done” in the playoffs as possible. They tremble like cold, wet chihuahuas when they play the Phillies. They barely beat the Nationals, Mets, and Marlins. Without pitching, last year’s team would have been far worse, much earlier than the last two weeks. The collapse last season is an omen for the 2012 season. I don’t see the pitching lasting 162 games. Add to that, Freddie Gonzales just isn’t a good manager. He might be a great bench coach, or a terrific Bobby Cox bud, but he showed terrible managerial skills last year. I think SI over rated the Braves. I see them finishing 75-87, but they might beat someone out for last place.
CrαZy
March 23rd, 2012
11:30 am
This is fantastic News!! Sports illustrated is never right!!
jobro
March 23rd, 2012
11:32 am
this is a joke right sports illistrated are those people idiots the marlins finish second and the nats 3rd this is a joke the braves will finish secind jose reyes will get hurt and the nats are to young in my opinion. This is so dumb I have lost so much respect for sports illastratued
heartofdarkness
March 23rd, 2012
11:33 am
National League East looks pretty weak this year unless the Nats outperform. Braves have many of the same issues they had last year, and some of the team stalwarts are a year older. The fact that this team won 89 games last year ought to be cause for celebrating the manager. The pitching staff had to pull the cart the entire year, and ultimately, didn’t have enough horses with a poor offense that was terrible in close games. The fan sentiment seems pretty negative before the season starts, so unless the Braves are hot out of the gate, Fredi is probably going to be the fall guy, as the front office attempts to save itself. The best chance this year for the Braves would be for the ownership to conclude onerous changes to the tax law are coming after the election, and its time to unload to a foreign billionaire headquartered in a tax haven.
Mister Frisky
March 23rd, 2012
11:35 am
This team blows and everyone knows it,except those who get paid to write about it.The AJC sports staff.SI was too nice.Fifth place.
Bobbys' Booger
March 23rd, 2012
11:36 am
Clean house! Fire Fatti NOW! @ Jonas G…Braves need way more than “another hitter”. Sheesh. This team is mental…in a bad way. Lack of plate discipline…an almost ZERO in the clutch…just go check how many of the team HRs were SOLO. Bench is C-, Bullpen is an A, BUT Fatti runs them into the ground. Starting 8 are a C, no fear instilled by this line up what so ever. Starting P is C+ or Incomplete…pick you grade. This is a 78-80 win team.
doc
March 23rd, 2012
11:38 am
yeah mark, we again show we are not an elite organization and one in disarray. even the farm system is under attack by those in the know, saying there is not what we expect in the pipeline to conjure up competitiveness on a budget like liberty has the team on so we can dream of championships. last year was the final sniff most likely. we cant beat the marlins or the nats either even when they were worse than us much less the phils.
gadawgz5
March 23rd, 2012
11:39 am
They also picked the Falcons to win the Super Bowl…These guys arent that accurate.
jon
March 23rd, 2012
11:43 am
how did SI do with the Falcons prediction last year?
ozzie
March 23rd, 2012
11:45 am
We have to accept the fact that the team may have over achieved in the 1H of 2011. Fans always want to believe the late collapse was a fluke. Bad luck. Few key guys getting hurt.
The problem is all teams have injuries and every team has to play 162 games.
With Chipper already in pain during early ST. A offensive hole at SS and Heyward still a work in progress you have to wonder how slow of a start we will see from this team.
Couple that with only Minor and more recently Hanson pitching well and we could see a pretty ugly April and May.
If that happens and the NL East is in fact stronger than 2011 they could be in trouble.
2012 could be more like 2010 where we will need a Troy Glaus part 2 to keep the Braves in the mix until the pitching gets healthy and we figure out what we have a SS.
I estimated 83 wins back in Jan given the lack of moves by the Braves and the moves by teams they will play.
You also need to look at the inter league schedule for 2012. It is pretty scary for ATL. They play the Yankees 6 games all in NY and the Red Sox.
Without a major trade or a Troy Glaus like performance from say Uggla, Mac or Heyward (i didnt mention Prado b/c he is not usually a big HR or RBI guy) it will be very tough.
The rotation was rock solid from what I recall in the 1H before injuries (apart from Lowe) but that will not be the case until Hudson is back, JJ is really back and Hanson proves he has the new delivery down.
Minor looks good.
Beachy is walking too many guys and getting into trouble which needs to stop come the real games.
Bobbys' Booger
March 23rd, 2012
11:45 am
@gadawgs and jon….CORRECT! They overrated the Falcons and now they have Overrated the Braves
Lady Luck
March 23rd, 2012
11:47 am
Fact is the pitching last year was right on, even the rookie subs BUT the lineup was nothing but garbage. They did nothing and I mean nothing to improve this. I just don’t understand, they want fans in the seat but they give us nothing to be excited about. Same team as last year except Chipper is done and will be a bench warmer this year and that is another bat gone.
I also see us as a bottom dweller. Will be until they decide that utility players should not be playing full time.
ozzie
March 23rd, 2012
11:47 am
They may need to put Medlen in the rotation if things get too ugly quick with the rookies.
Edward
March 23rd, 2012
11:48 am
The only thing Frank Wren can do at this time is pray. I absolutely agree the Braves will finish 4th and they want have a winning record.
Jeff
March 23rd, 2012
11:48 am
Hope Fredi gets fired so we can go hire Francona. Also wish we could fire our owners. The Marlins and Nats spent money to get better while we sat around and did nothing.
Stinkin' Mets
March 23rd, 2012
11:50 am
Good to see the Madoff investors predicted to finish at the bottom of the heap………
Bub
March 23rd, 2012
11:51 am
Unless some guys step up, this team is doomed. Starting pitching is overrated. And why should we expect the batting to improve. I think they will only win 80 games and the mets will do far worse at 70
chris
March 23rd, 2012
11:54 am
I don’t know about 4th but definitely 3rd in division and miss the playoffs. Unproven shortstop, Chipper will play 100 games or less and its a different team when he isn’t in the batting order. You move Prado to 3rd and then you have a utility player as your left fielder. Jury is out on if Jurgens can get through the season and Hanson coming off an injury as well.
They can say what they want about forgetting last year but nobody forgets a collapse like that….Doesn’t change one thing in the offseason when everyone else is improving and expect a different result. I also think the jury is still out on our replacement for Bobby Cox and if he can get this team to the playoffs.
Lobosolo
March 23rd, 2012
11:56 am
Gawd, the “fans” on this page sure do whine a lot… Y’all are the biggest joke in the majors….not a one of you knows your behind from third base… no, really…
Speedy Gonzalez
March 23rd, 2012
11:58 am
We have 4 major ????= Heyward, Prado, Hanson, & JJ. What will we get out of them & will they stay injury free? Then we have no left side of the infield with no SS & a retiree at 3rd, so YES 4th place is realistic, you sit on your hands & do nothing you get lapped, Miami & Nats are improved, us not so much!
Lobosolo
March 23rd, 2012
11:59 am
Do all of the real fans a favor and start your own 20/20 Hindsight/Armchair whine-sters blog… you goofs certainly don’t know baseball, and you definitely aren’t Braves fans…
Larry
March 23rd, 2012
11:59 am
I called this the moment Fruiti was anointed as the booger picker’s replacement. Nice guy, liked but neither feared (in a healthy sense) nor respected by his players, and the elite opposing managers–as with Cox–view him as a day off from serious competition. His many blunders last year couple with totally bizarre batting orders is overwhelming and convincing evidence of a low aptitude…and that’s saying something as baseball is the easiest of all major sports to manage.
And only the card carrying members of the Schlitz drinking, pork rind gnawing, goobers and bubba’s on here like “Lobododo” and his mate, “Lew,” will still not comprehend that last September and this spring are NOT aberrations–they are the expectations under Fruiti.
Nattering Nabob
March 23rd, 2012
12:01 pm
Nope, no more than 60 wins this year.
Ken Stallings
March 23rd, 2012
12:02 pm
Unfortunately, if I read the tea leaves arrayed before me right now, I have to say we are entering into the “winter of our discontent!”
Rodney
March 23rd, 2012
12:05 pm
It’s spring training!!!! Freddie Gonzalez is a good skipper!! The Braves will win the wild-card and make it to the NLCS. Mark it down!!!!
smyrnabob
March 23rd, 2012
12:06 pm
Braves probably in the mid 80’s in wins. But I don’t see both the Nats and fish having such great years. It takes more than a bunch of high prospects or a vile manager with free agents to win in baseball.
I like the way the Braves are building. But until Chipper and Lowe’s money comes off the books, Wren is handcuffed.
Gumbo
March 23rd, 2012
12:07 pm
Seems about right – Pttching cannot be as good as last year, and we have an outfield with only 1 legit starter (Bourn). Been to 4 Spring Training games – Heyward looks just as lost as last year, despite early reports to the contrary. Made no moves offseason.
Everything points to a .500 season……
Pete
March 23rd, 2012
12:07 pm
The once proud and mighty Braves have become as boring and toothless as the KC Royals, if that team even still exists.
Sadly the Falcons, who showed tons of promise the past 2 to 3 seasons are slipping into the same arena of mediocrity.
Hopeless.
Larry
March 23rd, 2012
12:08 pm
Sonny,
Spot on!
And just how many games were sacraficed last year while Fruiti was experimenting with such ideal lead-off hitters like Gonzalez, Uggla and Heyward…the three of which before Bourne arrived were all not even hitting their weight and were the farthest thing on earth from a lead-off hitter.
Heisenberg
March 23rd, 2012
12:09 pm
Francona? Seriously? Why replace one manager who is known for being soft and oversaw a historic collapse with another who allowed beer & fried chicken in clubhouse during games and oversaw an even bigger historic collapse? I am not proposing to fire FG – yet. But at least offer a candidate that brings something different to the party.
20out
March 23rd, 2012
12:10 pm
I agree with SI. The Braves have way too many question marks to say they win more than they lose.
Tomy Fournier
March 23rd, 2012
12:10 pm
Welllllllllllllllllllllll…well….may be SI was wrong…The Mets will be in front of Allanta, I mean…we will be the last…for sure!!!!
gregpatrick
March 23rd, 2012
12:10 pm
Have you naysayers ever heard the phrase “that’s why they play the games”? To read this dourness on the blog today makes me think the Braves should just pack it in and call it a season. We have THE best bullpen in baseball, great starting pitching, and a lineup capable of scorching earthif they play to their capabilities, which this article and your glass three quarters empty attitudes. Go Get ‘Em Bravos!
bill
March 23rd, 2012
12:14 pm
I might be wrong but I look for the Phillies to have a major reduction in wins mostly due to pitching. I am worried about the Marlins because they seem to play better than they really are particularly against us. At least this year we won’t have to wait 2 hours every other game for the rain delay. The Nationals are not ready for prime time. The Mets are in jail with Bernie Madoff. The Braves will win 88 or 90 games and hopefullythat will be enough in a tough division to pick up one of the wildcards. Best neas of the day is that Fredi is on thin ice. Here Fredi hold this anvil.
Tomy Fournier
March 23rd, 2012
12:14 pm
Naysayers+naymanager+nayplayers=naylastplace…that’s ok gregpatrick?????
Bill
March 23rd, 2012
12:16 pm
ESPN ML Preview by Tim Kurkjian & Buster Olney
1.Phillies
2. Marlins
3 Braves
Worse-case scenario…injuries to Hudson and Hanson lead to an over worked bullpen. Heyward can’t find his swing. Jones realize he stayed one year to long and Braves collapse in September again because they can’t score without hitting homers.
Best Case…Heyward hits 35 homers. Jones has Hall of Fame year. Bourn swipes 60 bases and the rotation gives C Kimbrel and J Venters enough leads to get Braves into playoffs as wild card.
Hire reckingball as Faith healer!
Chipper will be next Braves Manager….
Space Monkey
March 23rd, 2012
12:18 pm
What can Wren do? We don’t have any money. We’re too stupid to demote JJ and put Medlen in the rotation. And there’s not a lot of starting pitching or great shortstops available. Prado was supposed to be a weakness, he’s been great this spring. So what can Wren do? Should have fired Fredi last year.
Big heel
March 23rd, 2012
12:23 pm
Our season is going to be based off the health of our pitching staff. Doesn’t matter too much what our offense will do. They stunk to high rotten chicken last year and still win 89 games. I think a full year of a healthy j hey, a relaxed ugly, and a certain third baseman throwing it all on the line. We are at the least in the play in wild card game. Granted the pitching is healthy
Larry
March 23rd, 2012
12:24 pm
I think the nail in the coffin moment for Fruiti was when he trotted out Lowe in a must win game after all of the other players had watched him get hit like a slow pitch softball pitcher in his four previous September outings. That made it 0-5 and they lost confidence in their manager’s ability to make the tough, smart decisions thus triggering a state of hopelessness that still pervades this club today.
Then he follows this crime scene finish by practically anointing our newest pitching disaster, Jurrjens, the opening day starter. If you’re a player, would you have an ounce of confidence in this man’s managerial decisions making? Not unless, like my dissenters on here, you have a double digit IQ!
You should NEVER try to replace a long term leader with what you think is the identical type of person simply to appease the players…better to have hired a different type of personality–and strategy–to awaken their competitive spirits.
.
Bill
March 23rd, 2012
12:27 pm
Space Monkey said..”What can Wren do”?
PRAY!!!!!
Sonny Clusters
March 23rd, 2012
12:27 pm
It probably would be very difficult for Chipper to manage because he’d expect others to have his skill set and not many do. Ted Williams was that way long before they froze his head. Chipper will have another job in the organization and it may be at the trainer’s table rubbing salve and ointment and stretching people and commenting on issues of the day. Would Chipper make a good hitting coach? Well, he sure knows how to hit and if he could communicate it to others (”Uh, that’s it!”) that might be his niche. We just pray it will not be in the uh, broadcast booth. Our hammock bones will not be able to take that.
afan
March 23rd, 2012
12:29 pm
Must agree Larry.
Lobosolo
March 23rd, 2012
12:32 pm
Larry the Whiner is in midseason form with his perpetual crying game going on… poor fool doesn’t realize he doesn’t know baseball and is not a mind reader, but keeps on trying to foist it on us through his own daily river of tears anyway, repeating himself ad nauseum… still hasn’t told me how it is that he doesn’t have a manager/gm position in the bigs somewhere…. maybe it’s because he doesn’t know that there’s NO CRYING IN BASEBALL… alexis buys binkies by the box, big man… she’ll be glad to let you suck on one… take that bizarro blubberer Sonny with you… y’all can sit and and swap hankie stories with each other and solve the Braves’ problems…
tmc
March 23rd, 2012
12:33 pm
4th is very possible for the Braves, but so is 2nd.
5th & 1st are far fetched…
It’s up to the players where they want to finish.
(Fredi G. can play a small part in a few games too, but to me it’s up to the players to perform like a playoff team ALL season long)