Here’s what the Falcons will – and won’t – do this offseason
We offer proof that Sam Baker has occasionally held his own. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
The NFL scouting combine commences this weekend. Free agency begins next month. April brings the draft. Before the cutting and pasting begins, we offer semi-educated guesses as to what the Falcons will/won’t do.
They will keep Sam Baker. The website Pro Football Focus rated Baker the second-worst tackle in the NFL last season, but he wasn’t always so hapless. A lot of things had to go wrong to render a serviceable left tackle so ineffective, and a back injury was only part of it. The Falcons fired line coach Paul Boudreau, who had lost faith in Baker, and will give Pat Hill, hired as a replacement, every chance to rebuild Baker’s self-esteem.
They will rely on Hill to set a tone, and not just with Baker. Hill hasn’t worked in the NFL since 1996, but his aggressive approach as head coach — he dared to play Anyone, Anywhere, Anytime — put Fresno State on the map. This O-line could stand some prodding. It was revealing that the Falcons’ front couldn’t muster the required push on three infamous fourth-and-1’s. It also was revealing that Mike Johnson, a 312-pound guard taken in Round 3 in 2010 after playing at Alabama under a rather exacting head coach, never found favor with Boudreau.
They won’t trade up into Round 1. Owing to last season’s five-picks-for-Julio-Jones deal, the Falcons don’t have a first-round choice in 2012. General manager Thomas Dimitroff’s preference would be for this draft to play itself out and his organization to get back on schedule. Sure, he’d waver if Indianapolis called and said, “We’ll give you the No. 1 pick for Michael Turner.” But Indy won’t.
They will keep Michael Turner. The best-case scenario is that the Falcons will get one more big season from the big back, and logic holds that you should trade a guy one year too soon, as opposed to one year too late. But what sort of return would Turner, who’s 30, bring? Would you trade a 1,000-yard back for a fifth-round pick? Wouldn’t you be better served letting him work behind a retooled line under a new offensive coordinator who might actually direct a screen pass the big back’s way?
They won’t be crushed if Curtis Lofton leaves. The middle linebacker is a three-year starter and a fierce tackler, but there’s growing sentiment that he’s a liability against the pass. The question thus becomes: Would you pay $8 million a year for a two-down linebacker? At the right price, the Falcons would love to keep Lofton. If he does depart, they’d give Akeem Dent, the Georgia product taken in Round 3 last year, a long look in the middle.
They will slap the franchise tag on Brent Grimes. The Falcons could apply this tag, which allows a team to hang on to a free agent for another year at a much higher price, to any of several defenders — Lofton, John Abraham, Thomas DeCoud — but cornerback seems the area of greatest need. (And DeCoud figures to be more affordable as a long-term re-up.)
They won’t spend big to keep Abraham. Of the Falcons’ 33 sacks last season, he produced 9 1/2. But Abraham will turn 34 in May, and he has a history of injury. It’s scary to think that a team incapable of sustaining a pass rush would shed its best pass rusher, but remember what new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan after his hiring: “I’d rather have 10 guys get four sacks than four guys get 10.”
They won’t pursue Hines Ward. As much as the Falcons would welcome the locker-room presence of Ward, who’s from Forest Park and who played at UGA and who may be cut by Pittsburgh, there would have to be an on-field component to warrant such a hire. Ward will turn 36 next month, and he plays a position where speed is of some essence. As great a pro as he has been, he doesn’t have much left.
In the tradition of “urgent” and “explosive,” they will adopt a new watchword: “Daring.” In the neo-NFL, it would seem impossible for the 10th-ranked offense to oppose the 27th-ranked defense and to make no turnovers and miss no field goals and still not score a point. But that was the Falcons’ wretched lot in their playoff loss to New York, and there’s only one rational explanation: They played scared.
Mike Smith didn’t coach scared — he went for it on two fourth-and-1’s — but the message didn’t resonate. Matt Ryan threw 41 passes to no effect, and how in the neo-NFL can a big-time quarterback leave no imprint? Dirk Koetter, the new coordinator, has to render Ryan daring again. (It isn’t as if he was always risk-averse: He threw 19 interceptions in 14 games as a Boston College senior.)
For inspiration, the Falcons can turn to their nemesis. In 12 Saints-Falcons games, Drew Brees has thrown 11 interceptions, and that’s a fat number. His team, however, has won 10 of those games. The Falcons have allowed timidity to dilute their conspicuous talent, and that starts — and needs to end — with the quarterback. It’s time for Matty Ice to become Matty Fire.
By Mark Bradley
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FalcFans.com » Abraham headed to free agency
February 23rd, 2012
10:36 am
[...] report comes on the heels of Mark Bradley’s predictions in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that the Falcons “won’t spend big” to keep Abraham. Abraham was the team’s [...]
George Stein
February 23rd, 2012
10:37 am
By the way, the same could be said for Brady. When the Pats weren’t all about him, but instead were a strong defensive team, they won three titles in four seasons. As soon as they made the team about him, they stopped winning rings.
JSS
February 23rd, 2012
10:45 am
You’re an ignorant blogger… I knew you’d come back with a moron statement… So since you want “foresight;” but are incapable of understanding that most of us spent the days before the playoff discussing this to point ad nauseam.
http://blogs.ajc.com/jeff-schultz-blog/2012/01/05/matt-ryan-is-ready-to-make-amends-in-playoffs/?cp=2#comment-428928
Here’s a link to some analysis. Stop wasting the time of other people with your limited trivialities…
Just saying..
February 23rd, 2012
10:48 am
George Stein @10:15 am:
Yeah, I know, and other times as well. But basically, those calls are:
-4th Qtr
-Very conservative play calls.
Take NO, for example. Those guys are libel to call anything, at anytime. You’re edgy before the snap, trying to cover the whole field.
With us, the extent of daring is a 1st down pass. Few draws, almost no screens, no counters, very few plays attacking the edge, and with so few shots downfield, safeties are closing fast, without concern, on most of our plays, outnumbering us in the box.
What I’m saying is, let’s be more unpredictable, less by-the-book.
vafalconfan
February 23rd, 2012
10:50 am
Despite what some of these doomsday “fans” are saying on here your article is very accurate and well written. I have to say I do hate the thought of tagging Grimes however. He derserves a payday, but he could not start for a nunber of teams in the NFL in my opinion. Just not physical enough..
PMC
February 23rd, 2012
10:51 am
Moxie = Courage, Daring, Energy and or some sort of average soft drink introduced in 1876 once endorsed by Ted Williams.
George Stein
February 23rd, 2012
10:52 am
You’re a genius in your own mind, JSS. All I want to know is who has this made up moxie trait and the ways I would measure it. Does Andrew Luck have it? Does Ryan Mallet? Does Adrian Peterson?
This shouldn’t be that difficult for someone with your intellectual capacity.
PMC
February 23rd, 2012
10:52 am
The Falcons in the playoffs have certainly lacked Courage, Daring and Energy.
Therefore they have lacked Moxie.
George Stein
February 23rd, 2012
10:53 am
I’d be fine with that, Just Sayin…
George Stein
February 23rd, 2012
10:54 am
But do they have moxie in the regular season? Did trying to score before halftime against Green Bay show courage even if the execution could have been better?
PMC
February 23rd, 2012
11:07 am
They have been a different team at times in the regular season. Last year was mistake ridden but they played with enough moxie to get into the playoffs.
Personally, I don’t believe they have gotten the most out of the offensive talent they have available at times in the regular season and all the time in the post season. They haven’t used guys effectively. Last year they completely miscalculated the blocking they were going to get at Left Tackle and Right Guard.
The Packers game was a bad effort by the Falcons offensive personnel. The Giants game was a deplorable effort by the offensive coaches. It’s the worst playoff game plan I can remember, I’m really not sure why they chose to play the game that way. There’s plenty of blame to go around, but they haven’t played close to the same level in the post season that they have in the regular season.
JSS
February 23rd, 2012
11:09 am
@ PMC…
I provided the Webster’s definition for “Moxie” yesterday (which was a take off on the Soda’s ad campaign) from the 30’s. That is how the term got into the lexicon…
George Stein
February 23rd, 2012
11:22 am
I think it goes deeper than miscalculating the offensive line, PMC. The question is how much can you afford to allocate to RG? I’m equally frustrated with Turner, though, because he doesn’t have the speed to take advantage of the opportunities he sees when the play is blocked effectively.
As for the Packers game, I just think they had a great night and I’m not sure the ‘85 Bears could have stopped Rodgers. They were a better team. I think the discussion should just end there.
PMC
February 23rd, 2012
11:37 am
Ah, sorry if I duplicated. Long thread.
DC Dirty Bird
February 23rd, 2012
11:43 am
Does CHOKE ever have a quality football comment that doesn’t involve Matt Ryan. Is he/she even a fan of the Falcon’s.
Enough talk about what Matt Ryan isn’t. He’s on the team and not getting cut. What’s important is what we do to either protect his weaknesses or compensate for them.
Anyone want to talk about keeping Grimes or Abraham still?
George Stein, moxie is what that kid playing QB in Charlotte has. Seemingly, he doesn’t get rattled easy and is looking to make big plays. Ryan had moxie at BC when it was just him, a couple of good lineman, and a bunch of no name skill players on offense. Matter of fact, you want to know a QB who absolutely sucks, but has a lot of moxie…Rex Grossman. That dude takes each snap like he’s going to make the biggest play of the game.
DC Dirty Bird
February 23rd, 2012
12:00 pm
What happened to CHOKE?
JSS, I don’t always agree with you, but you’re right on with the “moxie” statement and your assessment as to why the Colts finally one the SB. I think you pretty much summed up the reason why CHOKE needs to stop focusing on Ryan and speak on why we have a team that basically can’t win in the playoffs unless our QB plays great football. CHOKE talks about Flacco’s record in the regular season and playoffs but doesn’t speak on how well he’s played in those games.
When did Grimes become an indespensable CB? Why do folks talk about how we can’t lose him but do not comment on how he fits in a Nolan ran defense.
JSS
February 23rd, 2012
12:11 pm
@ PMC…
No problem, it wasn’t an indictment on your point, just he’s “phishing” (in a snarky AJC blog kind of a way). Figuratively, not literally…
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
February 23rd, 2012
12:33 pm
HA HA HA
They said it would be so easy to win in the playoffs without Vick…………
HA HA HA
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
February 23rd, 2012
12:36 pm
CHOKE reminds me of Sarah (I can see Russia from my house)…..
They both give good speeches, look the part but in the end are just LOSERS
Tommy Maddox
February 23rd, 2012
12:50 pm
This is so disappointing – they have some many needs across the board.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
February 23rd, 2012
1:08 pm
HA HA HA
Disregard everything I say. I’m WEE TAH DUD.
HA HA HA
DC Dirty Bird
February 23rd, 2012
1:08 pm
Who is “they” and why does it matter today what was said?
PMC, when the Falcons hire an offensive coordinator who knows how to line up and attack a defenses weakness instead of one who only knows one way to play and/or call plays, we’ll be able to take advantage of our offensive talent.
snoclafLTA
February 23rd, 2012
2:51 pm
Our O-line was constantly praised during the 2010-2011 season. What happened? Losing Dahl made that big of an impact?
Pete E. Tong
February 23rd, 2012
2:59 pm
Losing Dahl was a big impact. Baker has progressively gotten worst; that didn’t help either.
JSS
February 23rd, 2012
3:11 pm
No, they’d already started to be pushed the last quarter of the 2010 season… That included Dahl, what people forget is that Ravens, Tampa, and the Saints dismantled the Falcons O-line in regards to pass protections in the last half of the season. They were that Weems kick-off return in Tampa away from being tied with the Saints at the end of the year. They got it together on that final drive against the Ravens after blowing that lead. And then the Saints handed their hats at home after all of that big talk about putting that ghost away after winning in N.O. earlier.
Hillbilly D has been saying it since the middle of the Smith’s first season. This team couldn’t dominate on either side of the ball regarding line play. Yes they won games, but rarely did they just make you say you’ve been manhandled…
Lol @ Dimitroff
February 23rd, 2012
3:15 pm
I hardly EVER agree with you MB. U r too politically correct, and u dont have free speech on ur blog. But this time, I agree with every thing u say in this column. Grats to u and me!
tom
February 23rd, 2012
3:16 pm
I have said it before and I say it again, Grimes is a liability. Cannot cover tall wide receivers and tight ends. Why is no one listening?
Jimmy Crack
February 23rd, 2012
3:41 pm
Mark, the toe Koetter can scheme all the screen passes he wants, but Turner is no MJD in terms of catching and accelerating, both of which Turner lacks in skill.
You are right on about Matt. He needs to grow some eggs and throw a deep ball that doesn’t invariably veer out of bounds. He should also trust his receivers to fight for that ball, and like I have said before, Smitty needs to stop worrying about that type of turnover. If the ball is intercepted, just treat it like a punt.
Disgusted
February 23rd, 2012
6:07 pm
The upgrade to the O-line is of most importance & hope upon a prayer they can get a defensive stud (hopefully two) with the picks they have. That is a long shot but they have to overachieve in this draft.
If you let Grimes go, who do you replace him with assuming that you spend big $$$$$ to get a guard and a tackle.
I will give Ray Edwards the benefit of the doubt and there is still hope that Dunta (sometimes Dumpsta) Robinson can earn the $$$$$ they are paying him. I do not think he is done.
Hate to let Abraham go, but with his age the the need to upgrade the O-line you cannot sign everybody.
Sam the Statute Baker has to go.
Disgusted
February 23rd, 2012
6:09 pm
Turner has one more yr left. Have to get it out of him, because there is no easy replacement.
Cleveland Browns Free Agency Talk – DBs | Sports Feedr
February 23rd, 2012
7:59 pm
[...] seems to think the Falcons would be reluctant to use the franchise tag on Grimes at $10.6 million, while another believes that’s exactly what they’ll [...]
Pete E. Tong
February 23rd, 2012
8:22 pm
I have said it before and I say it again, Grimes is a liability. Cannot cover tall wide receivers and tight ends. Why is no one listening?
Did you miss the Detroit game? The others? This cliche, frankly, is as old and tiresome as it is unsubstantiated.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
February 23rd, 2012
8:54 pm
0-3 in the playoffs & 72-million……………
HA HA HA
mars
February 23rd, 2012
9:45 pm
Wasn’t Baker a second rounder?
JSS
February 23rd, 2012
9:52 pm
Nope, Baker was the 2nd 1st round pick (21), TD made a draft trade for the pick
WS
February 24th, 2012
7:01 am
I would like to see all your great QB’s with a falcon line. I will bet they will all have happy feet with the (HEY WATCH OUT BLOCK THAT BAKER HAS PROVIDED)hey MAtt look out , he running free. Instead of you so call falcons fans putting blame in right place, put on Ryan.Matt needs to get a super model to stand up for him or maybe hire Grimes wife.He does not have time to throw down field, when he does make a good throw,our two top receivers drop football.
Falcon line Baker 1st rd bust. Balock 2nd rd pick good, McClure 7th rd, over the hill,RG still looking, Clabo picked up off streets and he should be RG . Tell me where the Great GM and head coach has brought any line help in. The two best lineman were here before they came, Balock and McClure.
Take all your good or elite teams ands see where their lineman were drafted. Most are first and second round picks. Our falcons start building a team in reverse. Get skill player for OB and Receiver, and get line from cuts. 80′S falcons knew better than this, they drafted first round picks for their line and they lasted ten to fifteen years. One being Mike Kenn. He was the best left tackle falcons have in their history. You can win with your lines, you will never be better than good team, not a superbowl team. They win the game against weak teams. Bey beat by better teams in playoffs. What do I know, it is all Matt Ryan. What a joke for falcons fans.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
February 24th, 2012
7:26 am
HA HA HA
I wouldn’t know how to quantify success in the NFL if my life depend on it!
HA HA HA
SmokinFletch
February 24th, 2012
8:44 am
“Falcons played scared”
What I’ve been saying for 4 years now.
Thanks for agreeing with me.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
February 24th, 2012
2:51 pm
CHOKE probably would CHOKE on “Smarter than a 5th grader”…………..
HA HA HA
Fred Macmurray
February 24th, 2012
3:05 pm
I dont like the term Moxie, I prefer Jenesequa,,, did I spell that right,, help me out JSS..
JSS
February 24th, 2012
3:21 pm
@ Mike, Robbie, and Chp’s Dad…
It is “Je ne sais quoi!” No, “Moxie” is definable as a quality… But the problem is that he just refuses to accept that point…
Fred Macmurray
February 24th, 2012
4:06 pm
Now Dorris Day,, she had Jenesaisquoi,,,, which is not definable. You just know it when you see it… and so far I have not seen it in Matt Ryan.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
February 24th, 2012
4:09 pm
QUESTION OF THE DAY AT COMBINE…….
“Is the NFL moving towards dual quarterbacks”
I told you LOSERS ………………….
HA HA HA
Bye Bye Peyton
Bye Bye CHOKE
Bye Bye Brady
Hello Rodgers
Hello Vick
Hello Cam
Hello Luck
Hello RG3
HA HA HA
Mora less Petrino
February 25th, 2012
12:21 am
“The Falcons have allowed timidity to dilute their conspicuous talent” – Exactly right!
Phalcon Phil
February 25th, 2012
4:35 pm
It’s going to hurt seeing Abe go but we have too much money tied up in scrubs like edwards and drob to sign someone of that age and injury history, especially while we still have grimes to sign. I like Lofton but we need to upgrade if we’re spending the kind of money he will command.
How many great qbs are we going to let go by while we continue the ryan experiment? First Newton, now RG3, we are going to look like a rebuilding team this year when we continue to struggle against the big boys. Like previously stated, other teams are getting better. We are just treading water, adding more weapons to the offense only to see it underachieve when it matters. The 2nd round pick will be yet another piece for ryan. I thought Peyton Manning was coddled talentwise (and to the detriment of other areas of the team) throughout his career but this takes the cake. We need to sell high on ryan while we still can. 2 months ago Blank was talking about an extension. Now, after the playoffs, all you hear is crickets.
TD needs to hit a grand slam with a rolling pin in this draft. Our last draft should have brought us a number 1/2 quality receiver, a piece for the o-line, a replacement for turner, and someone for gonzo to groom. Not to mention, we’d have a first rounder right now as we speak. When you give up that kind of loot, you do it for a franchise caliber talent qb like Newton, or RG3, not a wide receiver with a history of drops, especially in a run heavy, dink and dunk offense with a game manager qb. Don’t get me wrong, Julio will be an elite talent in this league, it just wasn’t a good move for the team overall.
9-7 next year and 2 very hot seats under td and ryan.
Spot on Dtan
February 25th, 2012
10:45 pm
I think “Mattiocre’s” contract is not extended.
Time to move on.
Spot on Dtan
February 25th, 2012
10:46 pm
And nice to see you. Phalcon.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
February 25th, 2012
11:17 pm
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/02/25/falcons-plan-to-launch-extension-talks-with-matt-ryan/
Boy they are ripping into CHOKE on NBC
SavDawg
February 27th, 2012
12:39 pm
I’m with you BjohnDawg, The problem isn’t with Matt R. its with the OL. A Rodgers nor Bree B nor T Brady could operate behind our OL.
If the offence controls the game it makes our it makes our D much better.
PM. Please
February 27th, 2012
4:00 pm
Tebow’s won more playoff games than Ryan. Blank needs to shake things up. Ditch Matty and Turner and go get Manning.